甲子光年：2022中國科技產業投資新風向（57頁）.pdf

《甲子光年：2022中國科技產業投資新風向（57頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《甲子光年：2022中國科技產業投資新風向（57頁）.pdf（57頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、2022.7.272022.7.27&CEO&CEO20222022NOWNOWZoom InZoom InHOWHOWZoomZoom OutOutNOWNOWGDPGDP1.6%1.6%7575202220225050+20222022100100214214181880.2680.26202220223.213.21MU5735MU57354793.64793.64 4+2022H12022H12022H12022H1-1919%-8%8%1632641282019-01-042019-05-172019-09-202020-01-232020-06-052020-10-092021-0

2、2-102021-06-182021-10-222022-03-042022-07-08AAWindWind202220227 78 8PEPEPEPEPEPE4762476220212021121231312022/1/52022/2/52022/3/52022/4/52022/5/52022/6/52022/7/550-WindWindPE19781978-1990199019911991-2000200020012001-2020202020212021-2035203520362036-205020502021425GDP12.5GDP26%37%+10000Zoom InZoom I

3、n10520221-65G20222022,70%,30%78%22%16.40%60.70%27.90%16.40%34.40%27.90%27.90%18.00%13.10%8.20%41.00%8.20%54.10%26.20%16.40%39.30%32.80%34.40%24.60%21.30%16.40%50.80%8.20%6.60%1.60%0.00%-4.90%-4.90%-6.60%-6.60%-8.20%-8.20%-9.80%5G/20222022N=105202265G301292018820195EDA2020520209SKBIS20201020201210nm2

4、0211CFO2018122021-20232021/9/120352021/3/12021-20232021/1/12020/9/12020/7/120192019/11/12019-20222019/10/12018-20202017/12/12017-20192017/11/12016/11/12016/8/120252015/5/120221016 1087 1318 1565 1853 2018 2614 3594 2857 3140 3426 3770 4176 4451 5434 6355 20142015201620172018201920202021CAGR17.1%CAGR

5、10.5%CAGR16.8%+1940s1990sWeb 1.01980sPC2000sWeb 2.02010s2020sAI5G10-2031%31%20%15%3%2888 2808 2577 2531 2628 2750 78 126 121 137 352 500 53%62%-4%11%120%42%201720182019202020212022EAI/CMP/ICCPUGPUFPGA3-5EDA/IP/EDA28nm/7nm/5nm/2022ESG32.1%21.7%7.1%7.1%4.5%4.4%3.4%1.8%-0.6%-1.8%=f f()=f f()N=10520226C

6、adenceCadenceEDAEDA20185Synopsys20195AnsysCAE2019420206FigmaUIFigma20223MatlabMatlab4,35815%6%20132014201520162017201820192020%20352021-03+2021-20232020-122019-10APP2018-20202018-05202030APP2016-20202017-01APP2016-11+20252015-05202230%13%10%5%MESCADEDACAE0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.019701975198

7、0198519901995200020052010201520202025203020352040204520503DCADCAE/CAMMES/DCS/SCADACAX 47%SCADA 15%PLM 11%APS 10%MES 8%9%CADCAECAXEDACAXEDABIMMESMESDCS+202210.00%5.90%5.20%4.30%3.80%2.40%2.10%1.90%0.80%-0.90%ESG=f f()=f f()N=105202261960s1980s Hatch-Waxman1976 Genentec2000s 1990-2000199820152018-2019

8、18A5me tooFirst in class10first in class36434346465236141621258%12%25%26%31%32%201620172018201920202021338 426 612 816 1007 1490-8%26%44%33%23%48%20162017201820192020202120222015201720172019202020212021me-X2021me-toome-betterfirst-in-class1.491.581.661.761.913.5%6.0%5.1%6.0%8.5%201620172018201920206

9、5MSDBMSRegeneronPD1PD1100RMB/4RMB/3352 3784 4237 4703 5146 12%13%12%11%9%20162017201820192020+20223.50%2.50%-3.10%-3.40%-3.80%-4.40%-5.20%-5.20%-7.50%-10.00%=f f()=f f()N=10520226WaymoAutopilotnuTonomyUberWaymoCruiseArgo AIAuroraA8L3WaymoMomenta20092014201520162017201820202021FSD2015520252017122018-

10、2020201812018122020102021-20352021220213V2X610+202152021122022+L2corner casesL324L220102015203020202025L4L3L2L1L5/RobotruckRobotaxiL0AVPL53%5%15%20%23%20182019202020212022Q1Momenta MomentaAutoXMinieyeMomenta Waymo L2/L2+202212.00%4.80%3.60%0.00%-1.50%-3.30%-4.40%-9.30%-12.90%-12.90%=f f()=f f()N=105

11、20226HOWHOW*X Y Z 5GIoTAI/AI/2020/2022-*ESGZ X Y 20225.0/PEVC/CVC202220222022202114N=10520226N=10520226PLGESG2022202220222021PLGPLGESGESGESGPLG,50%ESG,27%,23%2022ESG2022PLGESG2022PLGESGLPLP1000-30003000-5000500-8000N=105202269%-5%-5%*=ESG&-PLG18%5%5%-5%-9%-14%15-3040-808018%18%14%14%0%-9%-9%-14%-27%

12、5-1010-30140-801-530-4080-100500100-500PEVC9%5%5%0%0%-5%-9%-9%-14%18%5%-5%-9%-14%BCAPreIPOCPEVCCCN=1052022615-10103 3-5 53-51-230001-23000-5000218.20%9.10%9.10%9.10%-4.50%-4.50%-9.10%-9.10%-18.20%3124671855%5%3 35%7%-10%5-7%10%31241518.20%13.60%0.00%-9.10%-9.10%-13.60%15-1030-501-55010-309.10%4.50%4

13、.50%0.00%0.00%-18.20%4-513-42-351-236.40%13.60%-9.10%-9.10%-13.60%-18.20%1-230005000-153000-50002-513.60%9.10%4.50%4.50%0.00%-4.50%-9.10%-18.20%7%-10%1%-3%1%3%-5%15%-20%12%-15%10%-12%5%-7%3.57%3.31%2.01%0.03%0.03%-1.61%-7.32%N=10520226*=ESG&-PLG54.5%50.0%40.9%36.4%5G50.0%40.9%40.9%5G13.6%13.6%13.6%9

14、.1%ESGESG&PLGPLGESG5GPLG5GESGPLGN=105202266.7%6.5%6.3%6.1%6.1%5.6%5.2%4.5%1.7%1.1%0.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%-2.8%-4.3%-9.1%-9.1%-12.3%AI59.1%40.9%40.9%40.9%36.4%36.4%36.4%31.8%31.8%27.3%27.3%27.3%PLGPLGESGESG&ESGESGPLGPLG63.6%47.6%42.9%38.1%38.1%38.1%36.4%33.3%33.3%28.6%23.8%23.8%N=10520226PLGPLGESGESGPLGPLGE

15、SGESGPLGESG&PLGPLGESGESG&28%57%15%59.1%68.2%50%54.5%40.9%68.2%54.50%45.50%36.40%27.30%27.30%18.20%18.20%18.20%18.20%18.20%41.70%25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%16.70%16.70%16.70%16.70%53.80%38.50%30.80%23.10%23.10%23.10%23.10%23.10%23.10%23.10%15.40%15.40%15.40%15.40%15.40%66.70%55.60%44.40%33.30%33.3

16、0%33.30%22.20%22.20%22.20%22.20%22.20%N=10520226VR/AR/MRAIBIRPA3DCMPPCAPSCAECAMGISMESSCMCRMPLGESGPLGPLGESGESG5.1%2.3%4.0%5.9%17.2%19.2%6.6%11.8%7.5%20.3%13.7%20.2%21.6%21.9%4.3%4.1%0.7%4.4%3.4%5.8%13.6%7.2%2.3%1.2%8.6%10.4%17.8%15.4%18.2%5.1%N=10520226ZoomZoom OutOutPaaSIaaSVR/AR/MR3DNLP5GCB/GXR/VRCB2CB2BB2GGSource：“十四五”國家信息化規劃:5GCADEDA5G6105G