1、FRAMEWORKUse the future to create great communities for all and stay a step ahead of the issues impacting planners workand our communities.Brought to you by the American Planning Association and the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.Trend Report for Planners2023 APA FORESIGHT2|2023 Trend Report|APA|L

2、incoln Institute of Land PolicyTable of ContentsTrends and Signals for 2023The trends in this report are structured in three timeframes,which indicate the urgency of planners action.Within each timeframe,trends are grouped into themed clusters(in alphabetical order).Act NowClimateClimate Policies,Fu

3、nding,Policies,Funding,and Action and Action The The DigitalDigital Era Era Federal FundingFederal Funding and Local and Local PrioritiesPrioritiesGender ExpansivenessGender Expansiveness and and Gender Mainstreaming Gender Mainstreaming Policy Impacts on Policy Impacts on HealthHealthThe The Housin

4、g CrisisHousing Crisis,New,New Roommates,and SolutionsRoommates,and SolutionsSocial Media UseSocial Media Use and Media and Media LiteracyLiteracyEquitable,Environmentally Equitable,Environmentally Responsible Responsible TransportationTransportationYounger GenerationsYounger Generations and Social

5、and Social ChallengesChallengesPrepareBlockchainBlockchain,Crypto,and NFTsAn Upside-Down EconomyEconomyThe MetaverseMetaverse Amazonification and Other RetailRetail TrendsThe Future of WorkWorkLearn and WatchGeopoliticalGeopolitical Dynamics GreenGreen SignalsOuter SpaceOuter Space Political Shifts

6、in Public SafetyPublic Safety and Securityand SecurityPotential Game-Changing Tech Tech 03 The FrameworkFramework About this ReportReport How to UseUse this Report About the American Planning AssociationAmerican Planning Association and the Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyLincoln Institute of Land P

7、olicy ContributorsContributors MethodologyMethodology Trend PatternsTrend Patterns11 The Trends We Need to Act on NowAct on Now44 The Trends We Need to Prepare forPrepare for62 The Signals We Need to Learn AboutLearn About and Watchand Watch75 The FutureFuture of Planning Planning Competencies and S

8、killsCompetencies and Skills PlanTechPlanTech ConclusionConclusion 2023 American Planning Association and Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.Special FeaturesDEEP DIVES:Mass Extinction andMass Extinction andRewildingRewildingUrban HeatUrban Heat Artificial IntelligenceArtificial IntelligenceSCENARIOS 2

9、030:The Futures of Smart Cities and Climate ActionSmart Cities and Climate ActionSCENARIOS 2040:The Futures of Planners and the MetaversePlanners and the MetaverseSCENARIOS 2050:The Futures of Rural Places and Urban SpacesRural Places and Urban SpacesACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNI

10、NGFRAMEWORK3|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKThe frameworkTrend PatternsAbout This ReportiMethodology4|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKT

11、his is the second Trend Report for Planners developed by the American Planning Association(APA)in partnership with the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.Like last year,the core of this trend report is a list of over 100 existing,emerging,and potential future trends that the APA Foresight team,togethe

12、r with our Trend Scouting Foresight Community,identified as relevant to planning.The trends are structured within three timeframes(Act Now,Prepare,Learn and Watch),which indicate the urgency of planners action.Within each timeframe,trends are grouped into themed clusters.For each trend,the report gi

13、ves insights and explains why it is important for planners to know about and consider the trend in their work.In this second foresight cycle,we included experts and thought leaders from multiple disciplines,industries,backgrounds,and countries in our Trend ScoutingTrend Scouting Foresight CommunityF

14、oresight Community to gain more diverse perspectives on the shifts we see around us and to include a variety of potential futures in our work.In addition to planners from different planning fields,we worked with engineers,architects,anthropologists,computer scien-tists,psychologists,sociologists,and

15、 public health professionals,among others.This is the next step in the evolution of our foresight practice:to imagine futures beyond the views and perspectives within the planning profession,challeng-ing the continuation of our past and present.While most of the trends and signals from the 2022 Tren

16、d2022 Trend Report for PlannersReport for Planners are still rele-vant,we didnt repeat them in this About this Report trend report unless there were major updates that were important to highlight.Many of last years emerging trends moved from the Prepare timeframe to the Act Now timeframe.And some of

17、 the sig-nals we have been watching moved from the Learn and Watch time-frame to the Prepare timeframe.All trends and signals from this and last years trend report are now also available online in APAs TrendAPAs Trend UniverseUniverse where they will be regu-larly updated,reflecting the accel-eratin

18、g pace of change of today and tomorrow.Additionally,the report describes“trend patterns,”which explore the bigger-picture devel-opments rooted in the variety of trends observed and how they affect planning.The report also addresses the future of planning,explaining how the planning profession will h

19、ave to evolve to keep up with a continuously changing world,what new skills planners will have to develop,and which new tools are worth trying.This year,we also included some new features to help you make sense of a changing world and how you can tackle the myriad trends and related future uncertain

20、ties.We added some deep dives on existing trends planners should know about.A deeper understand-ing of them seems crucial to the healthy and thriving future of our communities.This includes the biodiversity crisis and related mass extinction and rewilding,urban heat and related challenges and soluti

21、ons,and artificial intelligence and the opportunities it provides and the risks it poses.In the Prepare timeframe,we included sets of questions you can use as a first step to prepare for emerging trends around the future of work,and what to do about the hype around the metaverse and 5|2023 Trend Rep

22、ort|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKIn addition to APAs PAS QuickNotes 94,“Planning With Planning With ForesightForesight,”which briefly describes how you can use the multiple trends of this report in a fore-sighted approach,we develope

23、d an interactive online course on how you can make sense of the future,train your futures literacy muscles,and use foresight in your work:Using theUsing the Future to Create Future to Create Dynamic PlansDynamic Plans.The course offers approaches on how you can iden-tify trends and signals in your c

24、ommunity together with commu-nity members,how you can priori-tize and focus on the most import-ant trends,how you can imagine what the future might look like,and how the practice of foresight can help you create dynamic plans that allow you to pivot along the way while the future is approach-ing.Usi

25、ng the future when trying to shape the future of our commu-nities will result in more equitable and resilient outcomes.How to use this reportThe trend report is intended to be used as a tool or reference when planning for the future of your communities.Planners can use the trends listed in this repo

26、rt as input for their long-range and current planning processes,to practice stra-tegic foresight during communitycommunity visioningvisioning processes,for scenarioscenario planningplanning,or simply to inform future decision-making.To determine and prioritize the most important trends to consider,p

27、lanners can evaluate and rate the trends based upon(1)the expected extent and severity of the poten-tial impact and(2)how certain or uncertain it is that a trend will occur in a community.The prioritization graph demonstrates how these two factors interact in the evaluation of trends.Trends in the u

28、pper right quadrant of the graphhigh impact and high certaintyrepresent the top priority trends planners should pay special attention to.blockchain,crypto,and NFTs,among others.Throughout the report,we did some time travel and created a variety of future scenarios based on different trends and signa

29、ls.These scenarios are examples for how planners can use the trends from this report to create multi-ple plausible futures of their own communities and how they might affect the path forward.We looked at the year 2030 and potential futures related to smart cities and their connection to climate acti

30、on.We traveled to the year 2040 to better understand how the metaverse might affect the planning profession in the future.And we explored plausible scenar-ios for the year 2050 on how the future of agriculture and food pro-duction together with the future of work may change how we think about land u

31、se.For more infor-mation on scenario planning,you can visit APAs Scenario PlanningAPAs Scenario Planning Knowledgebase CollectionKnowledgebase Collection.Trend Prioritization for PlannersHIGH CERTAINTYHIGH IMPACTLOW CERTAINTYLOW IMPACTKeep on watching these trends or signals and learn more about the

32、m.Its okay to dismiss these trends.These trends are top priority for you and your communities.Include these trends in your work,but they wont be crucial.6|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKleaders,and business interests

33、to create communities that enrich peo-ples lives.Through its philanthropic work,the APA FoundationAPA Foundation helps to reduce economic and social barriers to good planning.APA is based in Washington,D.C.,and Chicago.APA Foresightlearning with the futureAPA ForesightAPA Foresight helps planners na

34、vigate change and prepare for an uncertain future.With fore-sight in mind,planners can guide change,create more sustainable and equitable outcomes,and establish themselves as critical to thriving communities.Foresight is not about predicting the futureit is about understanding drivers of change that

35、 are outside of our control,how we can prepare for them,and when it is time to act.APA Foresight iden-tifies emerging trends and explores how scenarios stemming from each may impact the world,our commu-nities,and the planning profession in the years to come.The path forward requires adjusting,adapt-

36、ing,and even reinventing planning processes,tools,and skills to meet the needs of a changing world.Through APAs foresight practice,planners will find support,training,and new research for making sense of the ever-changing future.The American Planning AssociationAmerican Planning Association is an in

37、dependent,not-for-profit edu-cational organization that provides vital leadership in creating great com-munities for all.APA and its professional institute,the American Institute ofAmerican Institute of Certified PlannersCertified Planners,are dedicated to advancing the profession of planning,offeri

38、ng better choices for where and how people work and live.The nearly 40,000 APA members work in concert with community residents,civic The Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyLincoln Institute of Land Policy seeks to improve quality of life through the effective use,taxation,and stewardship of land.A non

39、profit private oper-ating foundation whose origins date to 1946,the Lincoln Institute researches and recommends creative approaches to land as a solution to economic,social,and environmental challenges.Through education,training,publications,and events,the Lincoln Institute integrates theory and pra

40、ctice to inform About the American Planning Association About the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy public policy decisions worldwide and organizes its work around the achievement of six goals:low-car-bon,climate-resilient communities and regions;efficient and equitable tax systems;reduced poverty an

41、d spatial inequality;fiscally healthy communities and regions;sus-tainably managed land and water resources;and functional land mar-kets and reduced informality.Consortium for Scenario PlanningThe Consortium for Scenario Consortium for Scenario PlanningPlanning at the Lincoln Institute of Land Polic

42、y offers a community of practice for practitioners,includ-ing access to technical assistance,educational resources,and a network of fellow innovators.Its mission is to improve the practice of scenario planning and broaden its use in communities of all sizes across disciplines.This community of pract

43、ice helps to foster growth in the use of scenario planning at all scales.Through research,peer-to-peer learning,networking,training,and technical assistance,we help communities develop better plans to guide a range of actions,from climate change adaptation to trans-portation investment.In addition t

44、o planners,the Consortium also convenes researchers and software providers to develop more effective tools and reduce barriers to entry.7|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKThis report was developed by the American Planni

45、ng Association in partnership with the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.A special thank you to Heather Hannon,AICP,Associate Direc-tor of Planning Practice and Scenario Planning,and Ryan Maye Handy,Policy Analyst.AUTHORS AND RESEARCHPetra Hurtado,PhD,LEED APDirector of Research and ForesightSagar Sh

46、ah,PhD,AICPManager,Research and Strategic InitiativesJoseph DeAngelis,AICPResearch Manager,Grant-Funded ProjectsAlexsandra GomezResearch AssociateEDITORSAnn Dillemuth,AICPPAS Editor Johamary Pea,AICP Senior Research Associate ART DIRECTION AND DESIGNCynthia CurrieCreative DirectorSection Cover Illus

47、trations by ShoutThank you to our trend scouts for their valuable inputs.Nicholas Abbott,JD:DesegregateCTClinton J.Andrews,AICP,PE,PhD:Rutgers UniversityJos Richard viles:University of California,BerkeleyNader Afzalan,PhD:California Governors Office of Planning and ResearchSarah Bassett:APA Technolo

48、gy DivisionVatsal Bhatt,PhD:U.S.Green Building CouncilMatt Bucchin,AICP,LEED GA:Halff Associates,Inc.Brad Calvert,AICP:City of Glendale,CaliforniaBill Cesanek,AICP:Water&Planning NetworkArnab Chakraborty,PhD,AICP:University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignKaren Chapple,PhD:University of TorontoThomas

49、 Coleman,AICP:WSPAmber Dickerson,AICP:Urban Planning Innovations,LLCLyndsey Deaton,PhD,RA,AICP,PMP,LEED GA:Clemson University,The Urban Collaborative,LLCHeather Galbraith,MEDes,RPP,MCIP:City of Calgary,AlbertaSubhro Guhathakurta,PhD:Georgia Institute of TechnologyJustin B.Hollander,PhD,FAICP:Tufts U

50、niversityKatrina Johnston-Zimmerman,MUS:City of PhiladelphiaMichael Kolber,AICP,PP:City of Trenton,New Jersey,APA International DivisionBen Kerrick,MS,MCRP:KK&PRobert Kerns,AICP:City of Alexandria,VirginiaMatthew Klein,DSL,JD:Waggoner Engineering,Inc.Nico Larco,AIA:University of OregonAdam Lubinsky,

51、PhD,AICP:WXY architecture+urban design,Columbia UniversityKeith Marvin,AICP:Marvin Planning ConsultantsShannon McElvaney,MPS:JacobsRobert McHaney,AICP CTP:The Goodman Corporation,APA Transportation DivisionSaralee L.Morrissey,FAICP:APA Public Schools and Communities DivisionDowell Myers,MCP,PhD:Univ

52、ersity of Southern CaliforniaLisa Nisenson:WGIJames Olson,PE:Better Roads AheadShachi Pandey,AICP,LEED AP:Metropolitan Urban Design(MUD)WorkshopLian Plass,AICP,LEED GA:Urban Land InstituteJeffrey B.Ray,AICP:JEO Consulting GroupDon Roe,MUP:City of St.Louis,MissouriThomas W.Sanchez,PhD:Virginia TechJi

53、ll Schreifer,AICP,PMP:The Schreifer GroupJames C.Schwab,FAICP:Jim Schwab ConsultingAnnis Sengupta,MCP,PhD:Metropolitan Area Planning CouncilJennifer Senick,PhD:Rutgers UniversityBecky Steckler,AICP:ECONorthwestRick Stein,AICP:Urban Decision Group,LLCRic Stephens,MURP:University of Oregon,South Dakot

54、a State University,Portland Community CollegeMerrill St.Leger,AICP CUD:SmithGroupLeonor Vanik,PhD:National Coalition for Latinxs with DisabilitiesJessica Wallen:APA Arts and Culture FellowDavid Wasserman,AICP:Alta Planning+DesignWalker Wells,AICP,LEED AP,EcoDistricts AP:Raimi+Associates,University o

55、f California,Los AngelesCorrin Wendell,AICP:City of Little Canada,Minnesota,APA Women&Planning DivisionRalph Willmer,FAICP:Metropolitan Area Planning CouncilRichard W.Willson,PhD,FAICP:Cal Poly PomonaNorm Wright,AICPHing Wong,FAICP:APA Asian and Pacific Islander Interest GroupJing Zhang,AICP:Morgant

56、own Monongalia MPO,West VirginiaContributorsAPAs Trend Scouting Foresight Community8|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKACT NOWExisting trends planners need to act on today.Foresight MethodologiesMethodologyTrend Scouting

57、 Foresight CommunityFor a successful foresight prac-tice,team diversity is crucial.To capture diverse perspec-tives,ensure that we identify a variety of trends directly or indirectly connected to plan-ning,and avoid missing trends or signals within or outside the planning world,this year we added th

58、ought leaders from many different backgrounds,countries,and disciplines to our TrendTrend Scouting Foresight Scouting Foresight CommunityCommunity.This next step in the evolution of our foresight practice helped us to imagine futures beyond the views and perspectives within the plan-ning profession,

59、challenging the continuation of dominant narra-tives.The members of the Trend Scouting Foresight Community meet quarterly to share obser-vations,discuss occurring shifts they have observed,and hint at signals that could evolve into future trends.Trend TimeframesIdentified trends are grouped dependin

60、g on their urgency:SENSE-MAKINGConnecting trends and signals to planning to explore how they will impact cities,communities,and the way planners do their work.FORECASTINGEstimating future trends.SIGNAL SENSINGIdentifying developments in the far future and in adjacent fields outside of the convention

61、al planning space that might impact planning.TREND SCANNINGResearching existing,emerging,and potential future trends(including societal,technological,environmental,economic,and political trends,or STEEP)and related drivers of change.Source:PAS QuickNotes PAS QuickNotes 9494,“Planning with Foresight.

62、”Planning with Foresight.”Five Trend CategoriesFive trend categories are at the foundation of APAs foresight research:societal,technological,environmental,economic,and political trends(STEEP).Through these five categories,APA connects emergingtrends andpotentialfuture trends to planning(sense-making

63、)and creates guidance on how planners can getfuture-ready(meaning-making).SocietalTrendsPlanningProfessionEnvironmentalTrendsEconomicTrendsPoliticalTrendsTechnologicalTrendsPREPAREEmerging trends planners need to prepare for.LEARN AND WATCHPotential future trends or signals planners need to learn mo

64、re about and keep watching.ACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORK9|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyPreviously global solutions are now being sought on national or local levels.Manufacturing making its way back to the U.S.is one result.Interestingly,some of

65、 the COVID-induced growth patterns in the tech sector and in e-commerce seem to have slowed down last year,creating more uncertainty about the direction of the economy over the coming months and years.Old problems need new solutions As planners we deal with a number of wicked problems:climate change

66、,the housing crisis,and many other chal-lenges.And while current uncertain-ties may paint a rather pessimistic picture of what the future may look like,we do need to point out the many positive developments on the horizon as well.Regardless of the direction of particular trends and developments,it i

67、s important for planners to start looking outside of the box,challenge our traditional assump-tions,and stop trying to solve the same problems with the tools that initially created them.The potential and opportunities to leverage technological and social innovations in our work have never been as pr

68、omising as they are today.Innovative solutions that support co-creation and more inclusive participation can help us to listen more and better understand the most vulnerable and their needs.Youth move-ments should be seen as a wake-up call instead of a nuisance The COVID-19 aftermathThe COVID-19 pan

69、demic seems to be slowing down.Almost three years later,we are left with over six million COVID deaths worldwide,persisting disruption in almost everything we do,and increased uncertainty about what the future will look like.The aftermath is visible at all scales.While COVID has had many negative an

70、d worrisome impacts,it also forced some positive shifts.The remaining ques-tions for the coming months(and maybe years)will be:what changes are here to stay and should be made permanent?What are the things that used to be better pre-COVID?And what needs to be completely rethought due to lessons lear

71、ned during the pandemic or even before?Many of the trends and signals in this trend report will relate to these questions.Changes in how we do our work have the potential to completely redefine what the future of work may look like.Meanwhile,the long-lasting effects of COVID on young generations(mas

72、king,distance learning,etc.)as well as elderly people(isolation)are still unknown.The pandemic was also a reminder for us that the world is more tightly connected than ever before,something that has become even more visible since the war in Ukraine started.Global supply chain issues,a disrupted econ

73、omy,food sup-ply challenges,and inflation are just a few related impacts.One year after the publication of our first trend report,much of the world is still upside down because of long-lasting impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic.And while many trends have either accelerated or shifted directions,toda

74、y,we encounter many of the same challenges and problems we had already tried to solve before the pandemic.A variety of solutions are available.Now is the time for planners to act on those that can already be implemented today and prepare for and learn more about those that are emerging or could pote

75、ntially make a difference in the future.Trend Patterns ACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORK10|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyTechnology innovations,such as sewer systems or railroads,used to have a purpose for all and were built for the common good.Toda

76、y,tech innovation seems to be for a narrow audience,ranging from the geeks among us who create new identities in the metaverse to billionaires who can afford to take a trip to outer space.Giving technology a purpose againusing it to make our lives and jobs as planners better and to create equitable

77、and sus-tainable outcomessounds easier than it is,but it is an oppor-tunity for us as planners to create meaningful change in a world that is becoming ever more complex and less understandable.and remind us of our responsibility toward future generations.Technological innovations such as 3D-printed

78、homes and social concepts such as co-living and intergenerational living provide potential solutions for the housing crisis we shouldnt dismiss.Policies that allow for their implementation instead of those that impose restrictions will be needed.Furthermore,an enormous amount of funding and support

79、from the federal government to combat and adapt to climate change is available right now.And the list of emerging transpor-tation systems and programs that can make transportation more equitable and environmentally responsible is long.This is the time to offer implementation opportunities instead of

80、 putting barriers in the way.The number of young people getting drivers licenses is declining,as they prefer walking,biking,and riding scooters over driving.However,billions of dollars are still being provided to maintain infrastructure that was built for cars while laws and regulations are being pu

81、t into place that keep scooters off our streets.A natural balance of everything?Some trends listed in this report might seem like new challenges for which we need to find solutions.However,looking at the bigger-picture trend patterns holistically,many of them become new opportunities.For exam-ple,tr

82、ends such as the automation of work(blue-collar jobs as well as white-collar jobs)might generate fears about future mass unemployment.However,signals related to the future of work,such as the renewed focus on a healthy work-life balance,four-day work-week pilots,and new expectations of younger gener

83、ations regarding meaningful tasks in entry-level jobs,might align well with these trends.The digitalization of everything,including increased appli-cations of artificial intelligence(AI),poses the risk to exacerbate social inequalities.However,available funding to close the digi-tal divide can make

84、digitalization more inclusive.If applied equi-tably and ethically,AI can help improve certain processes and make them more efficient,including planning processes.This can free up time for planners to focus on the human factors of planning,such as connecting with community members,instead of spending

85、 the day counting traffic,for example.Similarly,improvements in e-government and automation of processes can be a boon for currently short-staffed planning departments.Creating purpose In some cases,however,it seems recent tech innovations have added additional mental strain and trust issues to our

86、lives instead of making life easier or making us feel better.Social media toxicity,cryptocurrency rollercoasters,and surveillance by Big Tech are just some examples.But why is that?Shannon Vallor,the Baillie Gifford Professor of Ethics of Data and Artificial Intelligence at the University of Edinbur

87、gh and director of the Centre for Techno-moral Futures in the Edinburgh Futures Institute,recently pointed outpointed out that one of the reasons for this discrepancy is the lack of humane innovation and humane technology we see today.Icon credits:Globe:Stockyarder/DigitalVision Vectors;Bulb:limeart

88、/iStock/Getty Images Plus;YinYang:sirup/iStock/Getty Images Plus;Heart:hakule/iStock/Getty Images PlusFRAMEWORKThe trends we need to act on nowThe list of trends on which planners need to act now is growing.Most of the trends from the 2022 Trend Report are still relevant.We share updates for some of

89、 them in 2023,such as the funding boost for climate action and new solutions for the housing crisis.But there are also new local priorities,such as infrastructure fixes,digital trust challenges in public space,and innovative ideas on how to make transportation more equitable and environmentally resp

90、onsible.Disillusionment among young people,increasing public health concerns,and social media in planning are additional topics that need immediate attention.12|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORK2022 saw major developmen

91、ts in the climate change arena in the U.S.,particularly for climate change mitigation and greenhouse gas emissions reduction.The 2022 Trend Report outlined a variety of concerning long-term trends related to the impacts of climate change,such as water scarcity and climate migration.These trends are

92、especially notable considering the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes(IPCC)AR6 Climate Change 2022 reports,which document progress toward mitigation of greenhouse gas emis-sions and vital strategies for adapt-ing to the impacts of climate change.One of the most critical trends

93、 of the 2022 Trend Report2022 Trend Report,the new political emphasis on climate action in the U.S.,has borne fruit over the past year.The climate-centered pro-visions of the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)promise to play a major role in driving existing trends and accelerating both emissions reduc-tio

94、n and climate adaptation.Support for a growing green economy The climate change provisions in the IRA,totaling$369 billion,constitute the single largest invest-ment in climate mitigation and adaptation in U.S.history.These provisions are largely oriented toward accelerating the transition away from

95、fossil fuels and toward a green economy.They include tax credits for consumers and busi-nesses to incentivize the growth of low-carbon industries(such as Federal funding in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act and other legislation promises to play a major role in accelerating emissions reduction and cl

96、imate adaptation efforts,including further development of alternative energy sources such as wind and solar power.Photo by Todd Heisler/The New York Times.Climate Policies,Funding,and Action 13|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGF

97、RAMEWORKfor low-income,underserved,and underrepresented communities.Additional funding will also be made available through the Com-munity Development Block Grant program for a wide array of critical environmental and climate justice needs,such as air quality monitor-ing and resilience to natural haz

98、ard impacts(such as flooding).The IRA also provides up to$3 billion to address the historic injustices of highway development through urban neighborhoods.Reconnect-ing communities that have long been separated by highways could be a transformative step toward both environmental and climate justice f

99、or underserved urban communities(see also Equitable,Equitable,Environmentally Responsible Environmentally Responsible TransportationTransportation).Electrification and decarbonization There have been renewed efforts at the local and federal levels to reduce emissions and hasten the transition to cle

100、an energy and that exceed certain methane leakage limits.Additionally,new fees on methane emissions from natural gas production could help to discour-age wasteful extraction practices and reduce overall methane emis-sions.These and other measures signal a new willingness to address these especially

101、harmful emissions through regulatory means and a shift toward holistic emissions reduction strategies.Climate justiceThe disproportionate impact of climate change on underserved communities was discussed in the 2022 Trend Report2022 Trend Report.A variety of provisions in the IRA reflect a commitmen

102、t at the federal level to reduce the exposure of underserved communities to direct climate impacts and pro-vide funding to address chronic disinvestment and environmental neglect.$60 billion in the IRA is committed to climate justice priorities.This includes$15 billion to support emissions reduction

103、s signals a major transition away from fossil fuels(for more on this topic see Equitable,Equitable,Environmentally Environmentally Responsible TransportationResponsible Transportation).The growth of these industries is criti-cal to meeting national and global targets for emissions reduction,and the

104、impacts on communities may be significant.Major local investments in technologies linked with clean energy may be a boon for job cre-ation,especially in Rust Belt com-munities where excess manufac-turing capacity and facilities could help reverse long-term declines in employment.The methane emission

105、s gapThe IRA also takes major steps toward addressing methane emis-sions,which are a sizable contrib-utor to climate change.Methane,a byproduct of oil and gas production,is a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.A series of new incentives and regulatory measures could significantly red

106、uce these emissions.The IRA allows Congress to penalize companies transition away from carbon-in-tensive fossil fuels.Many of these incentives are targeted at building U.S.manufacturing capabilities for solar panels,wind turbines,and,critically,battery storage technology.The growth of the EV industr

107、y also electric vehicle(EV)production,battery technology,solar and wind power,etc.)and significant invest-ments in green and natural infra-structure,agriculture resilience,and habitat restoration.These measures are expected to simultaneously reduce the impacts of the most carbon-intensive industrial

108、 sectors of the U.S.economy,while growing carbon-neutral and carbon-negative industries.The impacts on commu-nities will be significant,largely due to changes at both the consumer level(EV production,investments in transit,etc.),and at the industrial and utility scales(community wind utility scales(

109、community wind and solarand solar,industrial battery produc-tion,carbon-neutral grid electrifica-tion,etc.).The clean energy transitionThe 2022 Trend Report2022 Trend Report highlighted the significant growth of the U.S.and global wind and solar indus-tries.The IRA,which promises$60billion in incent

110、ives for wind and solar power generation,has the potential to greatly accelerate the STILL RELEVANT FROM THE 2022 TREND REPORT1.5-degree lifestyles and ethical consumption Circular economy Climate impacts on local and regional economies Climate migration Digitalization and digital emissionsGreen bui

111、lding Grid-connected solar and wind and smart grids Synthetic/lab-grown meatWater scarcityFor more about these trends,visit APAs online Trend Universe.14|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKGeoengineering for climate chang

112、e mitigationGeoengineeringlarge-scale human intervention in the cli-mate systemis among the more more controversial optionscontroversial options for fighting both the challenges of a warming climate and the impacts of climate change.The IPCC doesnt take a position on geoengineering largely due to th

113、e significant uncertainties associated with its use.The poten-tial options in the geoengineering space are diverse,ranging from somewhat proven and established technologies,such as cloud-seed-ing to encourage rainfall,to more conceptual measures,such as solar radiation management and bioen-gineered

114、trees.A significant risk of geoengineering in the fight against climate change is“maladaptation,”when actions taken to reduce vul-nerability are likely to have adverse impacts elsewhere on people and the environment.These concerns are likely to play a major part in the conversation surrounding the w

115、ider adoption of geoengineering techniques.(e.g.,preserving existing carbon sinks such as forests).Neverthe-less,given the need for carbon extraction identified by the IPCC,carbon extraction technology is likely to be a major part of the climate change toolkit in the years ahead.remove up to a milli

116、on metric tons of carbon from the atmosphere annually are expected to begin operating in the U.S.and across the globe starting in 2024.Critics point to the high cost of these systems as distractions from more proven technologies and strategies account for Direct Air CaptureDirect Air Capture(DAC)of

117、carbon,even though the technology is still in its infancy.DAC,which involves extracting carbon from the atmosphere and storing it(often underground),is starting to see deployment at larger scales.DAC facilities that can alternative transportation options.In addition to electrification of transportat

118、ion(see Equitable,Equitable,Environmentally Responsible Environmentally Responsible TransportationTransportation),this includes elec-trification of buildings.In December 2022,the Biden Administration released the first-ever federal building performance federal building performance standardstandard a

119、iming at increased elec-trification and net-zero emissions in all federal buildings by 2045.Wash-ington,D.C.,is moving to ban natu-ban natu-ral gasral gas in most new buildings across the city by 2026.These and other electrification efforts are intended to improve air quality and reduce carbon emiss

120、ions,while providing critical support to the growth of low-carbon energy sources such as wind and solar.Carbon removalEmissions reduction alone is likely not enough to meet the targets set by the IPCC to avoid catastrophic climate change impacts.To meet these targets,carbon removal is needed.IPCC pr

121、ojections already Direct air capture(DAC)facilities aim to remove up to a million metric tons of carbon from the atmosphere annually through chemical scrubbing and rapid mineralization processes.Left,the worlds first large-scale global capture CO2 removal plant,launched in Iceland in September 2021;

122、right,a piece of mineralized CO2.Photos courtesy of Climeworks.15|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKInspired by the success of private rideshare companies,multiple transit agencies are piloting on-demand transit or micro

123、transit programs using municipal staff and vehicles managed on software platforms provided by private companies.Photo courtesy Via.The digitalization of everything continues.While there are many advances,there are also challenges that need solutions.In the era of smart cities,planners need to unders

124、tand the shortcomings and opportunities posed by the technologies increasingly integrated in everything we do(and they need to include elements of urban tech,gov tech,and civic tech in their plans;see also APAs PAS Report 599,Smart Cities:Integrating Technology,Community,and Nature).The city on dema

125、nd The“Amazonification”(see also Amazonification and Other Retail Amazonification and Other Retail TrendsTrends)of everything has reached local government.With the evo-lution of the digitalization of everything,customer expectations regarding online city services,personalization,and customization ar

126、e rising.Government services are expected to be flexible and respon-sive to individual needs.For example,inspired by the success of private rideshare com-panies,multiple transit agencies are piloting on-demand transit(or microtransit)in areas that do not meet the density requirements for a functioni

127、ng transit system.The programs can use either fixed or customized routes and fixed or on-demand schedules.Many of the transit agencies who run these programs purchase software from private companies but provide their own employees and vehicle fleets.In addition to customizable city services,there ma

128、y be a mar-ket for new services or improving how these services are managed.The Digital Era 16|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKspacesand more private access to surveillance tools(see Political Political Shifts in Safet

129、y and SecurityShifts in Safety and Security)is problematic within the context of low digital trust.Digital trust and designing public spaces in the digi-tal age will go hand in hand.Cities such as Washington,D.C.,and Boston are piloting trans-parency standards(Digital Trust Digital Trust for Places

130、and Routines,for Places and Routines,or DTPR)to build trust in their increasingly digitally equipped public spaces.This includes placing visual markers and providing scannable codes that inform the public of nearby tech-nology such as sensors and cameras.Planners are simultaneously being charged wit

131、h restoring community trust,experiencing the effects of low public trust in local government,and responding to digitalization(in some cases,promoting digitaliza-tion).To improve planning,these disparate efforts need to be merged.Solving the digital divideOver the past year,increased awareness of the

132、 impacts of the ever in internet-connection tech-nologies(like sensors)to improve parking,streetlights,and other pub-lic services.But installation of city-owned surveillance tools in public digitalization have been character-ized as increasingly volatile,uncer-tain,complex,and ambiguous(in short,“VU

133、CAVUCA”).Meanwhile,gov-ernments are investing more than continued digitalization of every-thing.Trust is a collective emotion and there is a power imbalance between providers and users in the digital world.Digital trust describes the relationship between the users(those who give trust,like consum-er

134、s and residents)and the providers(those who guarantee to uphold protection,like businesses and governments).Digital technologies and For example,blockchain advocates are promoting this technology to manage commercial agreements and contracts for street and munic-ipal infrastructure and services(see

135、Blockchain,Crypto,and NFTsBlockchain,Crypto,and NFTs).Decreasing digital trustIn 2022,ISACAISACA found that only 54 percent of people in the U.S.trust technology companies to act ethically,down 19 points since 2019.On the other hand,McKinseyMcKinsey found that 70 percent of consum-ers have at least

136、a moderate degree of confidence in companies they choose to do business with protect-ing their datadespite the reality that the mitigation of risks by most organizations are unimpressive.There is a mismatch between peo-ples understanding as well as their daily interactions with surveillance and AI t

137、echnology and the level of security of digital infrastructure that they use.Public distrust of all things dig-ital is an underexplored dilemma in planning,especially considering the Cities around the world are testing new technologies in ways that prioritize public visibility and participation.This

138、sign in Boston uses the Digital Trust for Places and Routines(DTPR)standard to increase transparency and enable resident feedback for sensors measuring how a street reconstruction project will affect air quality in an underserved community.Photo courtesy City of Boston/Helpful Places.INSIGHT FROM OU

139、R TREND SCOUTS“My biggest concern is that I see science and technology speeding ahead,digitalization solutions speeding ahead,but I dont see our governance and planning being able to move at that speed.”Bill Cesanek,AICP,Water&Planning Network17|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

140、ACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKwill need to match the immediacy of real-world experience.With the increased amount and speed of data processing this will require,data centers are moving closer to the users and into communities.Post-COVID,some cities have started to repur

141、pose abandoned office buildings into data centers or colocation centers.Colocation cen-Colocation cen-tersters are a type of facility owned by companies that rent out the space and equipment to host data centers.Planners should not let the invis-ibility of these land uses prevent their integration i

142、nto our existing urban ecosystems.For example,waste heat from data centers can be used to generate energy for district heating systems.impossible,there may be societal benefits from being able to pre-serve and access the entirety of the digital era.But there are also ethi-cal concerns,such as storin

143、g data produced by people under the age of 18be it schoolwork or social media posts.Planners and local government officials need to make decisions on what planning work should be pre-servedsuch as data to evaluate and monitor programs or to measure plan performancein addition to the ethical storage

144、and maintenance of this data.Data centers moving into citiesThe resources required to store and transmit data are an environmental concern.The 2022 Trend Report2022 Trend Report expressed the need for planners to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from digitalization and optimize the loc

145、ation of data centers.Any virtual reality or fully digital world(see The MetaverseThe Metaverse)we would lose nearly two decades of information.While the pres-ervation of analogous physical information has been traditionally reach 175 ZB.And if we look all the way back to 2003,humans only created fi

146、ve billion gigabytes a mere 1/200th of a zettabyte.Beyond the power needed to sustain the production of data,preservation is a separate issue.Digital frailty describes our collec-tive vulnerability to losing stored digital information.Threats to digital archives include technical glitches and switch

147、ing between file systems.But digital frailty can also be purposeful:ephemeral formats are appealing in the new gener-ation of social media with Insta-gram and Facebook stories,Snap-chat,and most recently,BeReal(see Social Media Use and Media Social Media Use and Media LiteracyLiteracy).Digital frail

148、ty could disrupt how we practice hindsight or how historians conduct analyses of the digital era.For example,posts by public officials or web page updates between government administrations may be historically valuable but currently have the potential for deletion.Or if major platforms like Twitter

149、disappear,digital divide has led to an increase in funding for digital equity and inclusion.Most of the funding is coming through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law(see Federal Federal Funding and Local PrioritiesFunding and Local Priorities),under the Digital Equity Act sec-tion.The expansion of bro

150、adband internet and cybersecurity mea-sures to reduce digital vulnerabil-ity are currently the top priority measures.In May 2022,Chicago launched a Digital Equity CouncilDigital Equity Council(DEC)as a community-driven effort to engage with those most burdened by digital inequities.APAs PAS Report 5

151、69,Planning Planning and Broadband:Infrastructure,and Broadband:Infrastructure,Policy,and SustainabilityPolicy,and Sustainability,explains how planners can address this challenge in their communities.Digital permanence The amount of data we produce is skyrocketing.From 2018 to From 2018 to 20202020,

152、the total amount of data that people used increased from 33 zettabytes(ZB)to 59 ZB.By 2025,researchers predict this figure will STILL RELEVANT FROM THE 2022 TREND REPORT5G and 6G Crowdsourcing Data protection and privacy Digital dividends Digital emissions Digital inclusionDigital vulnerability and

153、cybersecurityHybrid community engagement Scoring systems Smart cities Surveillance tools Wearable technologyFor more about these trends,visit APAs online Trend Universe.18|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKCredits clockw

154、ise from top left:arthobbit(hands),Laurence Dutton/E+,fizkes,Mark Youso/Getty;courtesy IKE Smart City.Scenarios 2030The Futures of Smart Cities and Climate ActionWill private companies take charge and focus on profit over people?Photoillustrations by Kevin ChildersPrivate-sector tech companies are l

155、eading smart city developments with a profit-based approach.The federal government halts support for fighting climate change.The federal government prioritizes climate action.SCENARIO D NIMBLE RESILIENCEThe federal government remains committed to fighting climate changePlanners integrate smart tech(

156、where useful)and use federal funding to resolve climate change issuesPlanners build a strong symbiotic relationship with federal government and the tech sector SCENARIO ACOLLABORATION WITH BIG TECH SAVES THE WORLDPlanners integrate smart tech(where useful)to resolve climate change issuesThe federal

157、government doesnt provide funding for climate actionPlanners collaborate with tech companies who are funding climate action through PPPsSCENARIO B PRIVATIZATION IS TAKING OVERPlanners dont want to engage with smart tech and smart city developmentsPrivate tech companies take the lead in smart city ap

158、plications,prioritizing profit over peoplePlanners lack funding and advanced solutions for climate actionThe private sector fills the void on climate action,but the solu-tions are extremely inequitableSCENARIO C PUBLIC FUNDING,PRIVATE CITIESThe federal government remains committed to fighting climat

159、e changeBig Tech receives federal funding for innovative climate action as part of smart city initiativesPublic-sector planners focus on policies and low-tech solutions Private tech companies take the lead in urban innovation,prioritizing profit over people Planners are leading smart city developmen

160、ts with a people-centric approach.19|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKMany U.S.cities are in urgent need of infrastructure upgrades.According to the American Society of Civil Engineers Infrastructure Report Card,every t

161、wo minutes a water main breaks,wasting six billion gallons of treated water every day across the country.Photo by Giorgio Rossi/Alamy.Political priorities manifest in federal funding opportunities.Whereas in the last few years action on climate change,the digital divide,and housing was coming from s

162、tate and local governments,the federal government is now providing more resources to address these concerns.Three major federal bills that provide investment in communities can be a signof the direction of local planning efforts.Additionally,local priorities are reflected in new roles that have been

163、 created in local governments over the last several years.Advancing solutions to structural and systemic challenges Trends in local spending are influ-enced by the American Rescue Plan Act(ARPA),which was signed in March 2021.The Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Fund(SLFRF)under ARPA is p

164、roviding$350 billion for states,municipalities,counties,tribes,and territories.Local spending on gov-ernment operations accounts for the largest share of SLFRF dollars.Cities and counties have budgeted signifi-cant amounts of their funds towards infrastructure,public health,and public safety project

165、s.Addressing immediate and acute needs was the first step.For example,with public-sector workers quitting en masse,some communi-ties used ARPA funding to increase salaries and attract employees.Now,there is potential for advancing solutions to the structural and sys-temic issues that worsened during

166、 Federal Funding and Local Priorities the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.Albany County,New York,is conducting an analysis of high-speed internet in the county to begin improving broadband and close the digital divide.BatonBaton Rouge,Louisiana,Rouge,Louisiana,is investing in cybersecurity

167、measures to com-bat digital vulnerability.DenverDenver is investing in affordable housing and assessing all city-owned and con-tracted shelters due to increasing homelessness.Fixing and retrofitting Americas infrastructure The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act(IIJA),also known as the Bipartisan

168、 Infrastructure Law,which was signed in Novem-ber2021,provides$1.2 trillion for transportation and infrastruc-ture spending.This combined with ARPA funding gives cities the opportunity to refocus their 20|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE O

169、F PLANNINGFRAMEWORKCustomer ExperienceCustomer Experience.Meanwhile,striving to become the smartest city in the world while prioritizing data privacy and protection,London cre-ated the role of Data EthicistData Ethicist.Chief Futures Officer is a title we have started to see in private entities,maki

170、ng the case for an increased need to integrate foresight and futures thinking across all indus-tries.A great public-sector example is Future-Focused CalgaryFuture-Focused Calgary,the City of Calgarys strategic foresight and resilience dividend program.It seems the trend is moving toward more holisti

171、c approaches to city government.Instead of siloed department structures,local gov-ernments are now trying to cen-tralize leadership in their priority areas while making sure all relevant departments report to these priority areas,and collaboration between departments can be facilitated more effectiv

172、ely.digital divide within its communi-ties.Focusing on climate change and its impacts,Miami created the role of Chief Heat OfficerChief Heat Officer(see also Urban HeatUrban Heat)and Boston hired a Director of Green InfrastructureDirector of Green Infrastructure in 2022.Topics such as citizen experi

173、-ence and inclusion are priorities in New York City,where Mayor Eric Adams recently hired a Director of Director of Renewed support for climate action One of the goals of the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)is to lower energy costs,increase cleaner energy production,and reduce carbon emissions by roughl

174、y 40 per-cent by 2030.For more on IRA-re-lated climate funding,see Climate Climate Policies,Funding,and ActionPolicies,Funding,and Action.New leadership for local priorities In recent years,several local govern-ments have created new roles with cross-sectoral,cross-departmental functions,indicating

175、new priorities.While the 1980s and 1990s saw the rise of chief information officers,showing the growing importance of IT systems in private and public entities,the early 2000s produced chief sustainability officers and later chief resilience officers.Since then,many more cross-functional positions h

176、ave been created.In 2019,Detroit hired its first DigitalDigital Inclusion OfficerInclusion Officer,who was tasked to find solutions to decrease the provided in the U.S.,and the Jus-Jus-tice40 Initiativetice40 Initiative,which aims to commit at least 40 percent of all federal funds to disadvantaged c

177、ommunities.spending on urgently needed infra-structure repairs.According to the American Society of Civil Engineers(ASCE)2021 Infrastructure Report 2021 Infrastructure Report CardCard,in the U.S.,every two minutes a water main breaks,wasting six billion gallons of treated water every day.In addition

178、,over 40 percent of public roadways are in poor con-dition.And there are many more examples of crumbling infrastruc-ture that needs improvements.Based on an analysis of mayoralanalysis of mayoral speechesspeeches by the National League of Cities,fixing and repairing roads,bridges,and water systems a

179、long with installing broadband internet are the top priorities for mayoral spending in the coming years.Addi-tional priorities include economic development and mixed-used devel-opments in downtown and central business districts and investments in safety(including crime prevention and criminal justic

180、e reforms).Funding decisions will also be influenced by the federal Buy America,Build America Act(BABA),which incentivizes the uses of goods and services made or STILL RELEVANT FROM THE 2022 TREND REPORTFunding from foundations Policy pendulum shifts Rematriation through land taxes Reparations progr

181、ams State-level intervention in local affairs Universal basic income programs Urban infrastructure and AIFor more about these trends,visit APAs online Trend Universe.INSIGHT FROM OUR TREND SCOUTS“The Justice40 Initiative is a way to create a common platform for evaluating these issues,identifying wh

182、ich places qualify and which places should get funding.Sustainability has become a practice,and equity is starting to become a practice.”Walker Wells,AICP,LEED AP,EcoDistricts AP,Raimi+Associates,University of California,Los AngelesACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORK21|2023

183、Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyFRAMEWORKACT NOWFRAMEWORKPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGThe phenomenon of biodiver-sity loss on Earth came to public attention in the mid-1980s,after the Smithsonian Institute and the Na-tional Academy of Science joined forces to host a n

184、ational forum and publish findings on the topic.Nearly 35 years later,biodiversity loss is still occurring at an alarming,and wors-ening,rate.A PAIR OF ECO-CRISES.Momen-tum in environmental action today has shifted towards dealing with the climate emergency.But biodi-versity loss is a full-fledged i

185、ssue that deserves informed attention to its causes,effects,and solutions.Solely focusing on the former could pose risks to the latter.A 2021 joint2021 joint studystudy by the IPCC and Intergovern-mental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services(IPBES)found that some meth-ods fo

186、r climate mitigation threaten biodiversity,especially land-based techniques such as large-scale tree planting(afforestation)or growing crops and burning them for energy(bioenergy).And solar,wind,or hy-dropower energy developments that are built without ecosystem con-siderations can also hamper local

187、 wildlife protection.Deep DiveIn North America,bison are one of the 20 threatened species across the globe that,if restored to their historic ranges,could help increase the total coverage of large mammals to 23 percent of the worlds land area.Photo by JREden/iStock/Getty Images Plus.Mass Extinction

188、and RewildingOur planet is experiencing what scientists are calling“the sixth great mass extinction.”According to the 2022 Living Planet Report2022 Living Planet Report,published by the World Wildlife Fund,wildlife populations have seen an average decline of 69 percent in the last 50 years.Todays ra

189、tes of extinction are far beyond any extinction rate that has existed in natural history.ACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORK22|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyFRAMEWORKACT NOWFRAMEWORKPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGWhile this relationship a

190、lso goes the other waysolely focusing on restoring biodiversity could poten-tially bring risks to climate actionthe IPPC-IPBES report found that biodiversity measures can be more commonly beneficial for both caus-es.Climate action and solutions to sustaining biodiversity can be com-plementary,but th

191、ey must be strate-gic and aligned.But currently,at the international level,climate change and biodiversity are addressed at separate summits.GLOBAL ACTION ON THE RISE.The latest United Nations Biodiversi-United Nations Biodiversi-ty Conference(COP15)ty Conference(COP15)which was held in person in De

192、cember 2022 after a four-year disruptioncould potentially reenergize efforts to ad-dress biodiversity loss.This meeting led to the adoption of a post-2020post-2020 global biodiversity frameworkglobal biodiversity framework.The UNs Biodiversity Convention first committed to a 2010 Biodiversity Target

193、 at COP6 in 2002,but largely failed to meet its goal.The Strate-gic Plan for Biodiversity 20112020 adopted at COP10,which included the Aichi Biodiversity TargetsAichi Biodiversity Targets,saw a similar fate.The post-2020 frame-work has its sights set on a more future-focused timeline:a vision for 20

194、50.Barring any major policy pendulum shifts at the federal level in the U.S.,this international frame-work will influence national,state,regional,and local policies.REWILDING.One trending biodi-versity solution with relevance to planning is rewilding,an ecological strategy that rebuilds the popula-t

195、ion of animals in addition to restor-ing wildlife habitats.Contemporary environmentalism has only recently begun to recognize what traditional ecological knowledge has been tell-ing us for centuries:national parks alone wont protect the biodiver-sity of the U.S.Habitat restoration without wildlife i

196、s merely scenery,and rewilding proposes urban and rural integration into the project of biodiversity.Rewilding isnt a new idea;researchers first promoted it nearly 25years ago,and small-scale rewil-ding has seen some success.Tactics like bioarchitecture(or“living archi-tecture”)to accommodate urban

197、bats,possums,and birds or pollina-tor gardens for bees and butterflies may already sound familiar to some planners.Biophilic planningsup-porting biodiversity by improving ecological connectivity for the ben-efit of both people and animals is growing as a movement in the profession.APAs PAS Report602

198、,Planning for Biophilic CitiesPlanning for Biophilic Cities,recog-nizes the global biodiversity crisis and the benefits of integrating nature in cities.See also the APA blog post on wildlife-friendly solarwildlife-friendly solar developmentdevelopment;the Zoning Practice article“Zoning for Urban Wil

199、dlife Zoning for Urban Wildlife and Biodiversityand Biodiversity”;PAS QuickNotes 96,“Climate-Resilient Pollinator Climate-Resilient Pollinator GardensGardens,”and the 2018 Planning article on the“half-earth”approachthe“half-earth”approach.To fully address biodiversity loss,we may need to start think

200、ing bigger and implement rewilding on a larger,even more integrated scale.REWILDING LARGE MAMMALS.Some species have been hit hard-er by habitat loss and ecosystem destruction than others.The Living Planet report found that freshwater populations saw the highest aver-age decline of any species group(

201、83 percent)in the last 50 years.While planners have a responsibility to contribute to water ecosystem Pollinator gardens supporting bees,butterflies,and other wildlife are one of many biophilic planning efforts planners can use to increase biodiversity in cities.Photo by Gina Kelly/Alamy.ACT NOWPREP

202、ARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORK23|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyFRAMEWORKACT NOWFRAMEWORKPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGrestoration,they have much more control over land use and develop-ment.Just 15 percent of the worlds land area supports large

203、 mammal species(not including humans).Re-cent studies suggest that restoring large mammals is key to improving overall biodiversity.Common perceptions of large mammals as dangerous or destruc-tive typically leave them out of mainstream restoration efforts.In North America,brown and black bears,bison

204、,wolverines,and pu-mas are five of the 20 threatened species across the globe that,if restored to their historic ranges,could help increase the total cover-age of large mammals to 23 percent of the worlds land area.This could more than double U.S.land area with intact large mammal com-munities,prima

205、rily in the northern Plains,Mountain,and Southwest regions.This would lead to a pos-itive domino effect on multiple ecoregionscomparable to the suc-cess of reintroducing gray wolves to Yellowstone National Park in the mid-1990s.Rewilding also fits in with Presi-dent Bidens“America theAmerica the Bea

206、utifulBeautiful”plan,which aims to conserve 30 percent of U.S.land and water by 2030.Federally owned land will like-ly see the first large-scale rewilding cases,and planners at the state and local levels should keep track of how these projects progress.In the end,urban areas have a responsibility to

207、 ramp up wild-life-friendly planning,while subur-ban and rural areas have a respon-sibility to support larger mammals through wildlife-friendly develop-ment.For all planners,promoting coexistence between people and wildlife will be key and may require collaboration with biologists and wildlife exper

208、ts.INNOVATIONS IN REWILDING.Recent publicity on mass extinction is not the only factor breathing new life into rewilding as a strategy.Innovative technologies are chang-ing what rewilding can look like.ColossalColossal,the worlds first“de-extinction”company,is researching how it can use DNA technolo

209、gy to resurrect extinct animals or preserve species on the brink.And in addition to the role famil-iar professions(like landscape archi-tects,planners,and even ecotourism workers)may play in rewilding our communities,there are specialized industries and occupations that are growing due to technologi

210、cal advances and community-based science,such as parataxonomyparataxonomy and bioprospectingbioprospecting.Food production,which contrib-utes to habitat loss,is the cause of nearly 70 percent of the decline in terrestrial biodiversity.The conflict between food production and rewil-ding is minimal,bu

211、t we are already seeing a shift towards food becom-ing more intensively produced in fewer areas.Thus,there is an oppor-tunity for planners to promote re-wilding projects alongside emerging land uses such as large-scale solar development.Increased biodiver-sity can also improve food produc-tion.While

212、 this deep dive primarily focuses on animal and terrestrial biodiversity,the loss of pollinators such as bees poses a significant threat to food production.Emerging technologies such as precision agri-culture and pollinationwhich uses AI,machine learning,and sensors to collect hive datacan improve p

213、ollinator efficiency of a smaller bee population.As it stands,we cannot innovate our way out of mass extinction and biodiversity loss.We will need to do the work of restoring wildlife habitat and adopting new cultural attitudes towards balancing human develop-ment with animal needs.Rewilding is just

214、 one piece of this puzzle,but one for which planners may be called upon to consult.24|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKGender is a social characteristic critical to the work of planners,with real-world equity implicatio

215、ns for transportation behaviors,daily activities,and public space usefor example,accommodations for the needs of women,who are more likely than men to have daily childcare responsibilities.Photo by Maskot/Alamy.Gender Expansiveness and Gender Mainstreaming Gender is one social characteristic that is

216、 critical to the work of planners,even if planners are not explicitly thinking about it.Whether its differences in transportation behaviors,housing preferences,or even how someone uses public space,gender can shape decision-making and impact peoples lives.Gender is emerging as an area of interest in

217、 the profession to intentionally advance equity and address the historical as either male or female.It is often conflated with nonbinary gen-ders,which are genders that exist outside the gender binary.One of the first visible pushes for gender neutrality on a wider scale was in the beauty and fashio

218、n industries.This may have been a signal of a shift in cultural practices,namely how people express and present themselves.In recent years,how-ever,regular reporting on nonbi-nary and transgender experiences and the tense negotiation of civil rights through federal and state legislation has proven t

219、he larger relevance of this topic.As discussions around gender continue to mature,planners need to balance addressing real-world implications of gender on public space use,behavior,and daily activities with avoiding reaffirm-ing the systems that lead to exclu-sionary and limited understand-ings of g

220、ender.consequences of inequitable policies and plans.General trends in gender include the increased popular awareness of the topic,the involve-ment of the tech world,the effect of gender on labor participation,the adoption of gender mainstreaming as a policy framework,and the evo-lution of inclusive

221、 design.Popular awareness of gender expansiveness and gender neutralityDiscussions about gender,partic-ularly those beyond the traditional gender binary,are becoming more common in major media outlets.As a result,the public is becoming more aware of and vocal about these topics.Gender expansiveness,

222、which is shifting from a fringe worldview,pushes us to imagine life outside the gender binarybut not without backlash.Gender neutrality is an attempt to avoid assuming roles or preferences based on gender stereotypes,or to not reinforce the gender binary,which is the tradi-tional system of gender cl

223、assifica-tion that defines every individual 25|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKmenstruation tracking apps and newer innovations such as biode-gradable and flushable at-home pregnancy tests(see also Policy Policy Impact

224、s on HealthImpacts on Health).Funding for the FemTech industry,which began in the 2010s,was slowly on the rise until the pandemic hit in 2020,and by January 2022 investments had skyrocketed.Privacy and surveil-lance concernsespecially after the U.S.Supreme Courts overturning of Roe v.Wade,which prom

225、pted warnings to women in pro-life states to stop using menstruation tracking apps(see also Policy Impacts on Policy Impacts on HealthHealth)could be a disruptor to this burgeoning market.But Fem-Techs growth shows that gender considerations in health care are becoming a social priority.biological d

226、ifferences rather than the overall diversity of body types.Sometimes,for instance,age and(dis)ability can be more relevant to design than gender identity.FemTechThere is a growing market for digital health technologies geared towards women,or FemTechFemTech.Pop-ular examples of FemTech include decis

227、ions impact people based on gender,is gaining ground in the U.S.The recognition of nonbinary genders,as well as the needed inclusion of transgender people in these conversations,gives U.S.planners an opportunity to lever-age their slow adoption of gender mainstreaming to develop an even more inclusi

228、ve version of this approach.Inclusive design and public amenitiesPublic space and inclusive design are also directly related to the maturing conversation around gender.One recent trend is the disappearance of bathroomsdisappearance of bathrooms as a public amenity.This disproportion-ately affects wo

229、men because more of their daily activities(like childcare)or biological needs typically require more frequent bathroom access.Private companies controlling access to bathrooms can also lead to discriminatory practices against marginalized genders.Inclu-sive design often still focuses on have the opt

230、ion of remote work.This also points to continuing trends in the types of work that women do,such as childcare,schooling,medical care,and service industries.Adopting(and adapting)gender mainstreamingGender mainstreamingGender mainstreaming,a strategy used in European countries since the 1990s that id

231、entifies how policy Women leaving the workforce and leadership roles COVID-19 worsened the divide between working men and women.Among adults 25 and older with only a high-school education,more women left more women left the labor force than men in the last two years,and men have now recoupedmen have

232、 now recouped all pandemic-related job losses since February2020.The pandemic shift to working from home gave more college-edu-cated women employment oppor-tunities,though the pandemics impact on the quality of womens experience in the workforce is not necessarily positive.The gap between women and

233、men in senior roles quitting their jobs is the largest it has been since this data was first collected in 2015,indicating wom-ens dissatisfaction with returning to“business as usual.”Overall,the economic impact of the pandemic was shouldered by Black and Latina women,mothers of young children,caregi

234、vers for parents,and women who did not STILL RELEVANT FROM THE 2022 TREND REPORTAging U.S.population Diversity awarenessIndividual identitiesMore racial and ethnic diversityRecognizing the importance of intersectionalityFor more about these trends,visit APAs online Trend Universe.There is a growing

235、market for digital health technologies geared towards women,or FemTech.One example of FemTech is EloCares wearable technology and mobile app,which helps women track their menopausal issues so that medical interventions can be better designed.Photo courtesy of EloCare.26|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln

236、 Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKThe use of telemedicine,doctorless exams(where sensors and artificial intelligence capture health data to provide a direct diagnosis to the patient),at-home medical laboratory tests,and direct-to-consumer health car

237、e models is increasing.Photo by Erdark/E+/Getty Images.After decades of improvement,U.S.life expectancy fell by 1.8 years in 2020.In 2021 it droppedanother 0.9yearsthe largest decrease in life expectancy over a two-year period since the 1920s.Non-Hispanic American Indian-Alaskan Native people and no

238、n-Hispanic Black people had the biggest declines.Reasons for this drop includeCOVID-19,drug overdose,and accidental injury.COVID-19 and its effects on physical and mental health,in math and reading.Due to the deprivation of social interactions,students returning to in-person classes saw a significan

239、t increase in fights,attacks on teachers,and other violent acts.Integrating nature into educational spaces may help stu-dents manage their stress,anxiety,and depression and improve other mental health indicators.Advances in medicine and health careCOVID-19 has accelerated the advancement,development

240、,and use of technology in medicine and health care.The use of telemedicine,doctorless exams(where sensors and artificial intelligence capture health data to provide a direct diagnosis to the patient),at-home medical laboratory tests,and direct-to-consumer health-care models is increasing.The use of

241、telehealth is 38 times higher38 times higher than before as well as other factors impacting life expectancy,are some of the trends discussed in this cluster.Major disruptors in this category are infectious diseases,sociopoliti-cal factors,and technology.Societal“long COVID”COVID-19 was the third lea

242、d-ing cause of deathcause of death in 2022.“LongLong COVIDCOVID”refers to a range of ongo-ing,recurring,or new medical conditions that people will suffer from long after the initial COVID infection,including chronic fatigue,malaise,anxiety,depression,insom-nia,brain fog,and other cognitive changes.M

243、ore research is needed to understand the pandemics long-term effects on physical and mental well-being.Adults may experience increased challenges exacerbated by COVID-related grief,anxiety,and depression.In the long term,COVID-19 may have even more adverse impacts on children.New research suggests t

244、hat the pandemic erased erased two decadestwo decades of educational progress Policy Impacts on Health 27|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKFor instance,Portland,Oregon,Portland,Oregon,recentlyeliminated a slip lanerecen

245、tlyeliminated a slip lane that had allowed vehicles to bypass a traffic light,reducing drive-by shootings at what had become a deadly intersection.In schools and other public spaces,planners can use landscape features,such as safety gardenssafety gardens,to help create attrac-tive,yet functional,saf

246、e places.And vacant lot remediationvacant lot remediation and renovat-renovat-ing abandoned housesing abandoned houses has reduced gun violence in various communi-ties,including Philadelphia.Addi-tionally,multiple studies show that increased exposure to nature can reduce mental fatigue and related v

247、iolence and crime in communities.PAS Report 602,Planning for Bio-Planning for Bio-philic Citiesphilic Cities,describes how elements of nature can improve a communi-tys overall well-being and reduce violence.Abortion access The U.S.Supreme Courts deci-sion to overturn Roe v.Wade has a far-reaching im

248、pact on pregnant peoples health.Two years ago,number represents a 14 percent increase from the year before,a 25 percent increase from five years earlier,and a 43 percent increase from a decade prior.Data also shows that mass shootings are on the rise.2022 marked the third year in a row with more tha

249、n600 mass 600 mass shootingsshootings(minimum of four victims shot and either injured or killed,not including any shooter who may also have been killed or injured in the incident)in the U.S,causing more than 600 deaths and almost 3,000 injuries.And 2022 also saw more than30 school shootings30 school

250、 shootingsin the U.S.that resulted in injuries or death,including the May 24 shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde,Texas,where 19 students and two teachers died.Gun violence can be reduced through a comprehensive approach that involves variousprograms,policies,and strategies.While numerous as

251、pects of this approach are beyond the realm of planning,many gun-related crimes occur in public spaces,and planners can help design safe public spaces.stagnation and underlying deep structural and social issues drive much of the drug use that causes these deaths.The COVID-19 pan-demic has only worse

252、ned the situ-ation.Widespread social isolation and economic dislocation caused relapses in drug use and could have contributed to rising overdoses.Planners can help with isola-tion by creating socially connected communities.By designing public spaces that encourage gatherings and creating built envi

253、ronments that support social interactions,planners can help improve social connections among community members.Gun violenceAccording to the CDCCDC and the American Public Health Asso-American Public Health Asso-ciation(APHA)ciation(APHA),gun violence is a public health issue.It includes homicide,vio

254、lent crime,attempted suicide,and unintentional death and injury.In 2020(the most recent year for which complete data is available),45,222 peopledied from45,222 peopledied from gun-related injuriesgun-related injuries in the U.S.This due to overdoses involving fentanyl,an opioid that is often mixed w

255、ith other drugs,and methamphetamine(meth),a synthetic stimulant.After a catastrophic increase in 2020,deaths from drug overdoses deaths from drug overdoses rose again in 2021 to record-break-ing levels,nearing108,000.Data suggests that overdose deaths are most predominant among work-ing-agewhite men

256、 and women without college degrees.Some call them“deaths of“deaths of despair”despair”a term coined by econ-omists Anne Case and Nobel Lau-reate Angus Deatonas economic the pandemic.Although at-home lab tests have been available for decades,over-the-counter COVID-19 rapid tests have now made at-home

257、 medical testing com-monplace.According to aFebruary 2022 report,the at-home test indus-try is projected to be worth over$2billion by 2025$2billion by 2025.There has also been a rise in subscription-based health-care providers,such as For-ward and Ro Health.As more consumers seek out convenient,on-d

258、emand health care,tech-enabled services may threaten traditional primary-care models and push health-care providers to adopt technological changes.For planners,this will impact the siting of health-care facilities,including clinics,urgent cares,and health centers.More research is needed to understan

259、d the real impact of these trends on brick-and-mortar health-care facilities.Rise in overdose deathsOne of the reasons for declining life expectancy in the U.S.is deaths STILL RELEVANT FROM THE 2022 TREND REPORTDeclining life expectancyLocal food systems planning Nature-based solutions Worsening men

260、tal health For more about these trends,visit APAs online Trend Universe.28|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKAssistive techPlanning for aging in community and planning for people with dis-abilities go hand in hand.Disabi

261、li-ties are more common among older populations,and the long-term effects of COVID-19 may increase the number of people affected by cognitive disabilities as they age.The tech sector has increasingly shown an interest in helping people with impairments or disabilities navigate the world.Not only are

262、 Big Techs major players improving the accessibility of their own products,but a separate market for assistive assistive techtech is emerging.Products such as sensory aids and mobility aids are lucrative,as is the potential to 3D print prosthetics.Wearable AI is also an emerging field.The ubiquity o

263、f assistive tech may facilitate some solutions to aging in community.likely than men to be affected,primarily due to their longer average lifespans.Planning for aging in place and dementia are more important than ever.More than half of nurs-ing home residents have demen-tia,but more than four times

264、as many people with dementia live in traditional housing.Housing pol-icies need to support affordability for older adults,especially those with dementia;intergenerational homes;and communities of care.A recent studyrecent study that reviewed 23 research articles found that inter-action with natural

265、environments and public spaces plays a crucial role in the well-being of people with dementia.Thus,planners can help develop policies that can minimize disparities in dementia risk,namely equitable access to resources and environments that contribute to healthy cognitive function,such as aging-suppo

266、rtiveaging-supportive communitiescommunities,dementia-friendlydementia-friendly communities,communities,and communities that support intergenerational intergenerational livingliving.COVID-19 on cognitive func-tion(see also Societal“Long Societal“Long COVID”COVID”),trends related to dementia and Alzh

267、eimers dis-ease are pertinent.The number of people with dementia and Alz-heimers disease is expected to more than double by 2060more than double by 2060,with these cognitive diseases expected to most affect Hispanic and Black populations.Women are currently nearly two times more Dementia and aging p

268、opulationsThe national median age saw its largest single-year gainlargest single-year gain according to the U.S.Census Bureaus 2021 Pop-ulation Estimatesshowing that the aging U.S.population trend is still ongoing.Thus,aging in community remains an important concept for planners.Given the uncertaint

269、y about the long-term effects of about250,000 peoplehad abor-tions in the places where it is now or may soon be banned or severely restricted.But since the Dobbs decision,reproductive rights have been on the ballot in six states,and each time voters sided with abor-tion rights.Due to new bans on abo

270、rtion in 13 states13 states,there may be a need for more health-care facilities in states that allow abortions due to increased demand.Clinics in states such as Colorado,Illinois,and New York are already seeing more patients as pregnant people travel from other states for abortions.Planners should b

271、e prepared for changes in land use and zoning to respond to this additional demand.In addition,if places where abortion is banned begin to see higher birth-rates,planners may need to consider whether their communities have adequate social services,facilities,and housing to support the needs of growi

272、ng families,especially parents and children in more vulnerable or marginalized populations.Planning for aging in place and dementia are more important than ever,as the number of people with dementia and Alzheimers disease is expected to more than double by 2060.Photo by Toa55/Shutterstock.ACT NOWPRE

273、PARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORK29|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyFRAMEWORKACT NOWFRAMEWORKPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGcosts,and consequences of urban heat in the public consciousness and among planners and commu-nities.The extreme heat events

274、 in the Pacific Northwest in 2021Pacific Northwest in 2021 and in the United Kingdom in 2022United Kingdom in 2022 have been a wake-up call on the very real dangers of sustained heat impacts in urban and rural communities and in the natural environment.For many urban communities,the urban heat islan

275、durban heat island effecteffect has been a fact of life for decades.Buildings,roads,and other elements of the built environment absorb heat at a higher rate than elements of the natural environment.This,combined with waste heat,can lead to higher daytime and nighttime tempera-tures(up to seven degre

276、es and five degrees Fahrenheit,respectively).But the extreme and dangerous temperatures in urban communities are often a policy choice rooted in neglect,especially for underserved communities and communities of color.More than 700 people died in the Chicago heat wave of 1995Chicago heat wave of 1995

277、,primarily in underserved and low-in-come communities.Legacies of highway building,slum clearance,and lack of greenspace in urban neighborhoods have all played ma-jor parts in exacerbating the poor public health outcomes associat-ed with urban heat.Increasing the Deep DiveThe widespread use of cooli

278、ng centers is an important component of urban heat resilience systems,which can help cities respond to extreme heat in urban areas exacerbated by climate change.Photo by Jose A.Alvarado Jr./The New York Times.Urban Heat Extreme heat is one of the deadliest climate risks in the U.S.In urban areas,the

279、 challenges of extreme heat are especially pronounced.As climate change continues to lead to extreme weather,and as formerly anomalous heat events become the norm,building resilience to urban heat is a critical goal for communities across the U.S.Recent major heat events have helped to elevate the c

280、auses,ACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORK30|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyFRAMEWORKACT NOWFRAMEWORKPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGurgency for action on urban heat challenges is climate change,which is exacerbating the formation of urban h

281、eat islands and the occur-rence of extreme heat events that have significant impacts on public health,the environment,the econo-my,and infrastructure.Urban heat-resilient systems can function or rapidly return to desired functions in the face of heat-re-lated risks.Planners,health-care providers,loc

282、al governments,and other decision makers have critical roles in addressing the impacts of urban heat through planning and implementing strategies to respond to extreme heat and build their communities resilience to urban heat.Solutions include greening and urban forestry practices,urban design princ

283、iples and regulations that reduce heat retention,the use of early heat warning systems,the widespread use of cooling centers,and the deep integration of urban heat mitigation into other local planning practices.Among other principles,effective urban heat resil-ience planning requires clear goals and

284、 metrics,well-defined strategies,inclusive participation,and prepara-tion for managing uncertainty.CHIEF URBAN HEAT OFFICERS.An important sign of the impor-tance of urban heat to cities and communities is the emergence of chief urban heat officers(see also New Leadership for Local Priori-New Leaders

285、hip for Local Priori-tiesties).Cities including Miami,Phoe-nix,and Los Angeles are turning to chief urban heat officers to identi-fy the challenges of extreme heat risks in their communities,improve awareness among both policy mak-ers and the public,and coordinate responses and actions to improve ur

286、ban heat outcomes.Appointing a leading authority on urban heat to focus on the critical issues of heat management,adaptation,and mit-igation allows cities to flexibly and comprehensively address complex urban heat challenges over the long term.APA has given significant atten-tion to these issues ove

287、r the last two years.APAs PAS Report 600,Planning for Urban Heat ResiliencePlanning for Urban Heat Resilience,provides holistic guidance to help practitioners increase urban heat resilience equitably in the communi-ties they serve.It provides an in-depth overview of the contributors to urban heat an

288、d equity implica-tions and lays out an urban heat re-silience framework and collection of strategies to help planners mitigate and manage heat across a variety of plans,policies,and actions.APA has also contributed to the Plan Inte-Plan Inte-gration for Resilience Scorecard for gration for Resilienc

289、e Scorecard for HeatHeat,which applies innovative plan integration techniques to communi-ties seeking to improve urban heat outcomes.Finally,APA has devel-oped the Urban Heat Knowledge-Urban Heat Knowledge-Base CollectionBase Collection,which collects a wide variety of local examples,best practices,

290、case studies,and toolkits centered on building resilience to urban heat and its impacts.Hundred-year-old oak trees along the Brown Foundation Promenade shade park users in Houstons Discovery Green.In addition to greening and urban forestry practices,solutions to urban heat include urban design princ

291、iples and regulations that reduce heat retention.Photo by Katya Horner.31|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKWhile co-living has long been a trend in the rental housing arena,cohousing and homesharing are increasingly bec

292、oming options for many looking to purchase a house,but who lack the ability to finance it on their own.Photo by JohnnyGreig/E+/Getty Images.The evolution of the housing crisis during the COVID-19 pandemic and the period following the end of most pandemic restrictions has cast several housing trends

293、in a new light.The rise in inflation has exacerbated a remarkably tight housing and rental market.Increased housing costs due to record demand for new homes,limited inventory,and high interest rates have reduced housing mobility and led to more people living in multigenerational households or with o

294、therroommates.While there are some signs of loosening in the rental market,many households face eviction without any clear prospects for new housing.This may have a major impact on already rising rates of homelessness.The trends below explore the many dynamics relevant to the housing crisis.Co-livin

295、g as response to an inaccessible housing market In the current housing crisis,home-owners are increasingly holding on to their properties while younger and more diverse populations are largely locked out of the market.For younger buyers,significant exist-ing debts(in the form of student loans)and ra

296、pidly rising costs(due to both price inflation and the rise in interest rates)are making home-ownership untenable in the short term.Even in areas embracing the rollback of zoning and develop-ment regulations,continued supply chain problems and inflationary price pressures are disincentiviz-ing build

297、ers and developers from The Housing Crisis,New Roommates,and Solutions 32|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKfollowed by major rent increases.The planning implications of private equitys role in the purchase of local hous

298、ing are significant.Should this continue to drive rent increases,evictions,and cost-cut-ting,communities may see a reduced stock of affordable housing and increased homelessness.Plan-ners should be prepared to recog-nize these trends at the local level,and work to ensure housing accessi-bility and a

299、ffordability for all.Potential wave of evictionsWith the expiration of federal pan-demic stimulus support,the rolling back of eviction freeze policies at the federal,state,and local levels,playing an increasingly direct role in the purchase of affordable housing and rental stock.The sheer volume of

300、these purchases and holdings by multibillion-dollar private equity firms has an outsized impact on the overall dynamics of market rates and available stock.In 2021 and 2022,the top private equity firms owned more than one million apart-ments in large,midsized,and small cities and communities across

301、the nation.A notable recent develop-ment is increased purchases by pri-vate equity of single-family housing stock.After purchasing properties,many firms seek to maximize their profits through cost-cutting,addi-tional fees for rental agreements and payments,and aggressive evictions diverse ages.Resid

302、ents of the“Oak Park Commons”development will share responsibilities for maintain-ing common space and volunteer time and effort toward collective needs,including cleaning,cooking,and governance.With economic and societal changes driving the increase in multigenerational living,planners should be pr

303、epared for local impacts in the form of new building typologies,new amenities,and the need for new services cater-ing to mixed and intergenerational households.Private corporations as affordable housing landlordsLarge private corporations are Multigenerational livingIn the U.S.,young adults today ar

304、e much more likely to be living within a multigenerational household than 50 years ago.According to the Pew Research CenterPew Research Center,17percent of adults aged 25 to 34 live in a par-ents home and an additional eight percent live in another type of mul-tigenerational living arrangement.A var

305、iety of social and economic pressures are driving this change,including student loan debt,rising housing and rental costs,increasing costs of goods and services,and the cost of elder care.These challenges offer opportunities for planners to support intergenerational intergenerational approaches to c

306、ommunity plan-approaches to community plan-ningning,including multigenerational housing.Some communities are looking to accommodate multigenerational living through dedicated co-living housing developments.In 2023,a group of households in the village of Oak Park,Illinois,will be breaking ground on a

307、 novel intergenerational cohousing development that seeks to intentionally attract residents of constructing new housing stock.This lack of available and accessible housing,even for buyers beginning to approach middle age(in 2022,the median age of first-time home the median age of first-time home bu

308、yers buyers was 36 years old),may have serious repercussions for communi-ties across the U.S.While co-livingco-living has long been a trend in the rental housing arena,cohousingcohousing and homesharinghomesharing are increasingly becoming options for many looking to purchase a house,but who lack th

309、e ability to finance it on their own.While often similar in structure to traditional subdivision developments,these types of com-munities feature novel ownership structures that improve affordabil-ity and access for people who may otherwise be unable to purchase a property on their own.Planners shou

310、ld be prepared for the zon-ing and land-use impacts of these trends in co-living,cohousing,and cohabitation.For more about the potential zoning implications,check out the November 2022 issue of APAs Zoning Practice,“Co-Living:Co-Living:An Old Idea is New AgainAn Old Idea is New Again.”INSIGHT FROM O

311、UR TREND SCOUTS“In midwestern small towns,Im starting to see corporate capital funds that have no affiliation with the area coming in and purchasing the lowest income tier of housing,trailer parks and eight-unit apartments.Its interesting to see that corporate absentee landlord showing up and purcha

312、sing from locals.”Jeffrey B.Ray,AICP,JEO Consulting Group33|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKconstruction.Improved conversion techniques,however,may help to bring costs down.Cities will also have to consider how office-

313、to-resi-dential conversions factor into their zoning reform efforts.Looking back in history,public health crises and pandemics have changed the struc-ture and patterns of cities before.This might be the next opportunity to improve the structure of our cities again.address the housing crisis and brin

314、g life back to vacant downtowns,this approach is extremely appealing.However,large-scale conversion of office space to residences is a complex undertaking.The cost of converting commercial and office developments into residential multifamily housing can approach or even exceed the cost of new contin

315、ue to struggle to attract office workers to downtowns and other business districts,many commu-nities are considering commer-commer-cial-to-residential conversionscial-to-residential conversions.Since the beginning of 2020,cities in the Washington,D.C.,metropolitan area have converted more than 2,000

316、 offices to housing units.In cities that are struggling to Commercial-to-residential conversionsThe option to work remotely for many employees(see also The The Future of WorkFuture of Work)resulted in a devastating decrease in office space occupancy(from 95 percent to cur-from 95 percent to cur-rent

317、 rates of 47 percentrent rates of 47 percent)and turned many downtown areas to ghost towns.As cities and employers and rising cost pressures due to inflation,there is a significant risk of a large-scale and widespread wave of evictions across the U.S.Accord-ing to the U.S.Census Department,more than

318、 eight million Americans are not up to date not up to date on their rental payments,and roughly 20 percent of renters making less than$35,000 annually are behind on their pay-ments.Given recent increases in the cost of food and energy and histor-ically tight housing and rental mar-kets,this potentia

319、l wave of evictions could have major impacts on rates of homelessness in U.S.communities.However,recent declines in rental recent declines in rental pricesprices driven by declining demand and increasing multifamily rental stock could help to blunt or slow the rate of evictions.Planners should be aw

320、are of and prepared to act on rising eviction rates at the local level.Planners should consider the role of zoning and land-use regulations in contributing to a tighter,more restricted,and more expensive hous-ing market,and look to encourage housing stability,affordability,and accessibility in their

321、 communities.STILL RELEVANT FROM THE 2022 TREND REPORT3D printed homes Big-tech funded affordable housing Gentrification and displacement Increasing homelessness Yes in my backyard(YIMBY)movement Zoning reform For more about these trends,visit APAs online Trend Universe.As employers continue to stru

322、ggle to attract office workers back to downtowns and other business districts,cities such as Washington,D.C.,and New York are seriously considering the potential for commercial-to-residential conversions.Photo by Jeenah Moon/The New York Times.34|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land Polic

323、yACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKAn increasing number of urban influencers have started to share videos and sketches on social media about how planning could be done better,including Paul Stout,whose popular TalkingCities TikTok account distills urban planning concepts in

324、to bite-sized videos.Photo via TikTok.We have an increasingly complex media environment.Advertisements or sponsorships are indistinguishable from people sharing their authentic views.Misinformation is rampant in news and journalism.And social media,like most technologies,is not immune to rapid chang

325、es in preferences and formats.Social media preferences,interactions,and behaviors are also not irrelevant to planning.People,who play a part in the“attention economy,”comprise our cities platforms,sharing short-form con-tent(e.g.,TikToks,Instagram reels,or YouTube shorts).Influencers can access or c

326、reate niche or special interest online communities that are either geographically connected(like Nextdoor)or based on a shared topic(like Reddit).Different kinds of influencers generate engagement in specific ways.Travel-based influencers,for example,primarily report from their travel destinations,s

327、ometimes generating hype about new tourist destinations with their online influ-ence.This already impacts the tour-impacts the tour-ism industryism industry,refocusing tourism to new destinations and creating new trends such as“must-take-selfie spots”across the world(with some-times negative impacts

328、 on local ecology and biodiversity).City-living influencers,on the other hand,work more at the local level.And while their local influ-ence can be helpful to community and communities.If planners ignore the ways that the social media environment operates,including both how it is detrimental to menta

329、l health and how it is increasing awareness of problems,then they are ignoring a major social aspect of the lives of the people they serve.Trends such as communities acting as influencers and the effect influencers have in communities have implications for the future of planning and how planning can

330、 be done better.Social media influencers and impacts on communitiesCities and communities are now at the mercy of the rapidly growing social media influencer industry.This market grew from$1.7 billion$1.7 billion in 2016 to$9.7 billion in 2020in 2016 to$9.7 billion in 2020 and and had reached about$

331、16.4 billionhad reached about$16.4 billion by the end of 2022.An influencer is a type of social media user who uses a social media platform to mar-ket themselves,their lifestyle,or specific products to an audience of followers.Influencers have flour-ished under evolving social media Social Media Use

332、 and Media Literacy35|2023 Trend Report|APA|Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyACT NOWPREPARELEARN AND WATCHTHE FUTURE OF PLANNINGFRAMEWORKsocial media.Anything,be it a plan or a proposed project,going viral is liable for misinterpretation or misperception.The mental health of a planner who contributed

333、 to or cre-ated a plan that is being criticizedrightfully or notcan quickly dete-riorate.The trend of a toxic social media environment has impacts on how planners work.This emphasizes even more the importance of planners becom-ing social media-savvy.Planning departments may need to consider developing social media strategies and staff protection programs.Plan-ners cant change the world of social m