1、a PUBLICaTION TITLE A New Migration Strategy for Growth and Innovation March 2023By Johann Harnoss,Janina Kugel,Marley Finley,Dany Bahar,Hillel Rapoport,and Rebekah SmithBoston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their

2、greatest opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963.Today,we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow,build sustainable competitive advantage,and drive positive societ

3、al impact.Our diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives that question the status quo and spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting,technology and design,and corporate and digital ventures.We work in a uniquely c

4、ollaborative model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization,fueled by the goal of helping our clients thrive and enabling them to make the world a better place.The BCG Henderson Institute is Boston Consulting Groups strategy think tank,dedicated to exploring and developin

5、g valuable new insights from business,technology,and science by embracing the powerful technology of ideas.The Institute engages leaders in provocative discussion and experimentation to expand the boundaries of business theory and practice and to translate innovative ideas from within and beyond bus

6、iness.For more ideas and inspiration from the Institute,please visit https:/ CONSULTING GROUP|BCG HENDERSON INSTITUTE 1a New Migration Strategy for Growth and Innovation Few of us would imagine it:innovation,perhaps the most pondered,probed,and pursued of business and societal imperatives today,is o

7、n the decline.1 Solutions to the critical challenges we face depend not only on a handful of exceptional individuals with breakthrough ideas,but on the broad array of people who help realize those ideas by keeping the engines running and greasing the wheels of progress.An essential ingredient in thi

8、s mix is migration:a countrys blend of talent offered by populations drawn from beyond its borderstheir brain power and brawn,their genius and common sense,and their creativity and fresh perspectives.Countries and cities that optimize their migration mix for economic potential can reap signifi-cant

9、competitive advantage,now and in the decades ahead.Yet most policymakers have failed to recognize this oppor-tunity.In this report,we present a three-factor framework that can help public leaders stimulate economic growth through migration policy.BCGs Global Talent Migration Index(GTMix)describes th

10、e elements of a winning migra-tion mixone that cor re lates squarely with greater produc-tivity and innovation,as well as with public acceptance of immigrant workers.This novel,research-backed framework can help policymakers understand the current state of their migration strategy,benchmark it again

11、st the corre-sponding strategies of other countries,and ultimately design policies that will make their economy more vibrant,more innovative,and more resilient.Migration Policy Typically Focuses on the Wrong Elements Much of the public discourse on migration in advanced economies focuses on managing

12、 immigration rather than on proactively shaping it.Most countries that employ active attraction strategies aim to draw in only a small number of“highly skilled”individuals.(We put quotation marks around“highly skilled”to underscore the conventional,relatively narrow application of this term to indiv

13、iduals with advanced degrees,extensive business or technology experience,or other prestigious credentials.)We call this traditional view the small-scale skilled immigrant(SSI)approach.Meanwhile,programs to broaden the mix or to expand,reattract,or otherwise engage with a nations own network of emigr

14、ants are seldom part of the conversation.In the US,for example,93%of employment-based immi-grant visas in 2022 were awarded to foreign nationals with university degrees,demonstrated“high-skill”abilities,or qualified US investments.Only 3%were allocated to so-called“unskilled”labor.2 Likewise,in the

15、work permit system that China introduced in 2017,some 78%of work permits are reserved exclusively for“skilled”talent,with much of the remaining 22%allocated to similarly qualified workers on a short-term basis.3 Few countries try to achieve origin diversity within their immigrant population or to st

16、rategically cultivate a broad emigrant diaspora.Although SSI-based policies ostensibly intend to fill specific talent gaps,they miss the broader economic opportunity that migration represents.For one thing,such policies ignore the sheer volume of workers needed to reverse widespread labor shortages,

17、today and in the future.As of mid-2022,the worlds 30 largest economies faced an all-time-high employment gap of some 30 million unfilled jobs,representing an aggregate$1 trillion to$3 trillion in lost productivity annually.Moreover,aging populations in high-income countries signal greater shortages

18、ahead.Specifically,trade and service sector jobs are projected to be among the fastest-growing occupations in the next decade,but SSI policies largely exclude foreign workers who are willing and able to fill these essential roles.4 In addition,these policies fail to meaningfully connect countries to

19、 the breadth of perspectives,skills,and knowledge available worldwide.As a result,countries miss out on an opportunity to foster innovation.1.Bloom,Jones,Van Reenen&Webb(2020),“are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?”American Economic Review 110(4):110444.2.US Department of State(2022),“Report of the Visa

20、 Office 2022,”table V,parts 2 and 3.3.https:/www.china- goal without a plan is just a wish.Antoine de Saint-Exupry,French writer and pilot2 a NEW MIGRaTION STRaTEGY FOR GROWTH aND INNOVaTION Despite recent breakthroughs such as generative AI,CRISPR,and 3D-printed organ transplants,the overall rate o

21、f technological and scientific progress is actually in decline.Over the past several decades,despite greater investment,innovation efforts in fields as diverse as agriculture,manufacturing,cancer research,and computing have yield-ed diminishing returns.(See Exhibit 1.)For example,break-throughs in t

22、reatments for breast cancera life-threatening disease that affects one in eight women worldwideare becoming harder to achieve.Or consider Moores law:it takes 18 times as many researchers today to double com-puter chip transistor density as it took in 1970.5 In view of the breadth and magnitude of so

23、lutions needed to protect and advance society,countries desperately need a labor force with greater potential to innovate.They need people who bring a broader set of problem-solving heuristics,who are more connected to global networks of knowledge,and who provide a steady inflow of new skill sets an

24、d expertise.Contrary to SSI logic,pursuing STEM and other so-called“highly skilled”professionals alone is not a sound immigration strategy.Beyond scientists,researchers,technologists,and others who discover,invent,and innovate,new ideas require a deep well of workers to help advance,execute,and comm

25、er-cialize them.More fundamentally,this deep well is crucial for maintaining a functioning economy that can adequately meet demand for essential services and products.Any countrys migration strategy must address two points:it must define an ideal migration mix for its needs,and it must create a plan

26、 to integrate and engage migrants.Although ample practical guidance is available on the latter pointthrough,for example,the Migrant Integration Policy Index(MIPEX)comparable guidance on the former is lacking in popular discourse.A considerable body of aca-demic research exists to inform the developm

27、ent of an economically stimulating migration mix,but most policy-makers have not yet incorporated these insights into their planning.This publication aims to fill the gap between research and policy practice,not only identifying what“good”looks like,but also offering tactical advice on how to bring“

28、good”to life.A Shift in Thinking To realize the promise of migration,policymakers must rethink three long-held assumptions about the quantity of migrants needed,the quality of a countrys migration mix,and the definition of migration as a one-way activity.(See Exhibit 2.)We propose the following thre

29、e-step approach:Exhibit 1-Human Progress Is SlowingSources:GDP per capita growth in high-income countries graph:World Bank national accounts data and OECD national accounts data.Years of life saved per 100,00 people,per clinical trial graph:adapted from Bloom,Jones,Van Reenen&Webb(2020),“are Ideas G

30、etting Harder to Find?”Ameri-can Economic Review,110(4):110444.(Copyright american Economic association;reproduced with permission of the American Economic Review.)Years of life saved per 100,000 people,per clinical trialGDP per capita growth in high-income countries403020100Heart diseaseBreast canc

31、erAll cancers19801990200020100 1 2 3 4 5 Annual percentage growth,five-year average(%)19601980200020205.Bloom,Jones,Van Reenen&Webb(2020),“are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?”American Economic Review 110(4):110444.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP|BCG HENDERSON INSTITUTE 3 Seek additive value(quantity).Small-sc

32、ale immigra-tion policies often stem from a view of immigrants as competition(displacing natives from jobs)or as a financial burden(charity cases that deplete government resources)or both.But rather than protecting domestic populations from an economic threat,strict and scarce visas deprive them of

33、an economic advantage.Empirical research shows that large immigrant populations sustain,expand,and boost economic productivity in receiving countries.To unlock these benefits,a migration strategy must recognize the additive value of immigrants as complements rather than competitors,and as resource g

34、ains rather than resource drains.Expand the notion of“skilled”(redefine quality).Migration strategies today revolve around attracting“skilled”talentpeople who typically have an advanced education or experience in the sciences or business.But all work requires skill of some sort,and skills that re-qu

35、ire prestigious degrees and earn higher incomes are not the only skills of value.In many countries,traditional labor skills(for example,in construction and transporta-tion)are in short supply,as are service skills in such fast-growing sectors as health care.An innovation-boosting mi-gration strategy

36、 redefines quality to encompass the diverse perspectives and complex productive knowledge that immigrants contribute across all skill types and levels.Count connectivity as a benefit.Immigration is only half of the story.A winning migration strategy also con-siders domestic workers who move abroad(e

37、migrants).Just as migrants bring knowledge from their places of origin to their destinations,they also send knowledge and resources home through their personal connections or upon their return.Both immigrants and emigrants strengthen a countrys position as an international hub of productivity and in

38、novation.Introducing the Global Talent Migration IndexWe developed the Global Talent Migration Index(GTMix)to help countries assess and shape their migration mix.This framework,drawn from extensive theoretical and empirical research,provides a lens for pinpointing economic considerations that a coun

39、trys current policies may overlook.The GTMix measures countries on the three core factorsquantity,quality,and connectivityusing data on migrant populations,economic complexity,and patents.These factors are not exhaustive,nor do they necessarily trans-late into impact,especially if not implemented al

40、ongside effective integration strategies.Because the GTMix assess-es actual migration patterns,it does not offer a qualitative or causal assessment of policies.Nevertheless,it can help public leaders measure the impact of past policies and design future policies to spur desired migration patternsExh

41、ibit 2-The GTMix Encompasses Six Questions of Economic ImpactSource:BCG analysis.Note:GTMix=Global Talent Migration Index.QuantitySizePullQualityDiversityComplexityHow prevalent are immigrants in your country?How many of the worlds highly educated immigrants have you attracted?How nationally diverse

42、 is your immigrant population?How economically complex are the countries your immigrants come from?How central is your country in the global migrant network?How many global mobile inventors are you attracting(or re-attracting)?ConnectivityCentralityCircularity4 a NEW MIGRaTION STRaTEGY FOR GROWTH aN

43、D INNOVaTION Quantity.This factor has two components:the total num-ber of international workers that a country brings in(which we term size)and the global share of highly educated immi-grants that it attracts(which we call pull).Although migra-tion strategies today recognize the value of the latter,

44、they often ignore the relevance of workers whose skill sets lie outside those acquired through a university education.Over-emphasis on attracting the highly educated ignores the need for workers in trade and service sectorsgenerally categorized as“low-skilled”whose competencies are in demand and ess

45、ential for a well-oiled economy.These include nurses,technicians,auto mechanics,construction workers,farmworkers,and a host of other vocational trades-people.Thus,high scores in both pull and size are positive.Research shows that beyond filling job vacancies,migrants of varying educational levels fu

46、el innovation and start businesses of their own at rates that exceed those of native workers.6 Immigrants make up roughly 15%of workers in the US but account for 25%of entrepreneurs and 25%of inventors.7 US-based retail and tech giants eBay,Kohls,and Instagram,started by immigrants from France,Polan

47、d,and Brazil,generate billions of dollars in annual income and tax revenue and employ tens of thousands of people.8Moreover,rather than displacing or undercutting native workers,blue-collar immigrants often propel domestic talent into higher-paying jobs.9 Event studies consistently show that short-t

48、erm labor market crowding from an influx of new immigrants had no negative impact on native worker employment after ten years.10 In fact,there is evi-dence that increasing the size of the immigrant population leads to greater workforce participation of native women.11 So while continuing to attract

49、in-demand,“highly skilled”workers remains valuable,attracting migrants who can perform essential manual and vocational labor and ex-pand the economy through their entrepreneurial efforts,is important,too.Countries that earn high GTMix scores on quantity include Middle Eastern countries with majority

50、-immigrant popula-tions,such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia,as well as Australia,Canada,and Switzerland.Chile and Thailand have raised their GTMix quantity ranking dramati-cally since 2000,more than doubling their total immigrant populations and enjoying even greater growth in their sh

51、are of the worlds highly educated migrants.(See Exhibit 3.)Exhibit 3-Two Outstanding Quantity Climbers:Chile and Thailand Sources:UN Population Division data;BCG analysis.204618Improvementin ranking49SizePercentage of population composed of immigrants1%5%0.02%0.28%2%5%PullShare of immigrants with po

52、st-secondary educationChileThailand200020200.05%0.47%200020206.https:/behavioralscientist.org/how-immigrants-drive-entrepreneurship-invention-innovation/.7.https:/hbr.org/2016/10/immigrants-play-a-disproportionate-role-in-american-entrepreneurship.8.https:/ Specialization,Immigration,and Wages.”Amer

53、ican Economic Journal:applied Economics 1(3):13569.10.Card(1990),“The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market,”ILR Review 43(2):24557;https:/www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/99ac61a3-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/99ac61a3-en.11.Corts&Tessada(2011),“Low-Skilled Immigration and th

54、e Labor Supply of Highly Skilled Women,”American Economic Journal:Applied Economics 3(3):88123.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP|BCG HENDERSON INSTITUTE 5It is important to note that strategies to increase immi-grant population size without providing measures to sup-port migrants,such as protections for healt

55、h,welfare,and human rights,will fail on a humanitarian level and are unlikely to unlock the economic potential of a vibrant migration mix.Quality.This factor consists of two subfactors,which we term diversity and complexity.Diversity reflects the hetero-geneity of national origins,which in turn refl

56、ects different ways of thinking.Geographic diversity is itself a source of innovation,offering a broad array of perspectives that fuel novelty and creativity.Researchers have found a statistical-ly significant correlation between greater variety of origins in a countrys immigrant population and incr

57、eased long-term income levels and productivity;in more economically advanced countries,that correlation extends to innovative-ness as well.12Complexity involves the extent to which immigrants import advanced expertise in productive work,such as agriculture,recycling,or new product or service develop

58、ment.Migrants transmit specific knowledge of best practices from their homelands around the worldwhether it comes from direct expertise or simply familiarity with their home econ-omys industries.In fact,research shows that immigrants from countries that are advanced in certain industries boost the p

59、roductivity of those same industries in their receiving countries.For example,migration between Tanza-nia and Kenya helped grow the formers soap industry.Similarly,Chilean emigrants in Sweden have helped ad-vance Chiles paper products industry.13 This phenomenon can also be observed at the individua

60、l level.Danone,the major yogurt brand(Dannon in the US),was founded in Barcelona by a Greek immigrant who imported,along with his knowledge,bacterial cultures from Eastern Europe to introduce the probiotic digestive aid to the West.14To understand how diversity and complexity play out,consider Indon

61、esia,whose migration mix quality has sky-rocketed since 2000.(See Exhibit 4.)In diversity,Indonesia increased the probability that two random immigrants would be from different home countries from 60%in 2000 to 90%in 2020.And whereas Indonesia ranked in the bottom ten in complexity among the 100 cou

62、ntries studied in 2000,it ranked fourth highest in 2020.This dramatic rise is a function of changes in countries of origin(notably,greater representation of immigrants from South Korea,Singapore,the US,and the UK)and of the heightened economic complexity of the leading places of origin,such as China

63、,India,and Japan.Exhibit 4-Two Quality Standouts:Indonesia and the NetherlandsSources:UN Population Division data;Harvard Growth Labs Economic Complexity Index;BCG analysis.12.alesina,Harnoss&Rapoport(2016),“Birthplace diversity and economic prosperity,”Journal of Economic Growth 21(2),10138.13.Baha

64、r&Rapoport(2018),“Migration,Knowledge Diffusion,and the Comparative Advantage of Nations,”Economic Journal 128(612):F273F305.14.Bailey(1997),Marketing and Pricing of Milk and Dairy Products in the United States,Iowa State University Press.Improvementin ranking4788522DiversityProbability of two rando

65、m immigrants being from different origins61%89%0.61.193%96%ComplexityWeighted-average economic complexity index of immigrant originsIndonesiaNetherlands200020200.20.3200020206 a NEW MIGRaTION STRaTEGY FOR GROWTH aND INNOVaTION 15.https:/www.cgdev.org/article/myth-brain-drain-how-emigration-can-help-

66、poor-countries-harvard-political-review.16.Bahar&Rapoport(2018),“Migration,Knowledge Diffusion,and the Comparative Advantage of Nations,”Economic Journal 128(612):F273F305.17.https:/econpapers.repec.org/article/eeeeecrev/v_3a101_3ay_3a2018_3ai_3ac_3ap_3a101-132.htm.18.Bahar,Choudhury,Miguelez&Signor

67、elli,“Global Mobile Inventors”(mimeo),working paper;PatentsView(US Patent and Trademark Office);BCG analysis.19.https:/ and online biographical information.The Netherlands,which has historically depended on immi-gration for population growth,saw marked improvement in diversity since the turn of the

68、millennium.It rose five places in diversity to rank sixth overall in 2020.Its advance in com-plexity was even more impressive,as it rose 22 places.Connectivity.Connectivity gauges the extent to which a country recognizes the value of both immigration and emi-gration as ways to access global knowledg

69、e.It is composed of two factors:centrality,which we define as the degree to which a country is a hub in the global migrant network;and circularity,our term for the extent to which internation-al inventorsimmigrants and return emigrantspass through the country.Many people associate the intuitive conc

70、ept of migrants as conduits for transferring information across borders with fear of“brain drain.”Although“brain drain”(as in the loss of doctors or other essential workers)can be a real concern,the notion that countries generally lose knowledge when educated workers emigrate is misleading.Research

71、shows that emigration actually produces a“brain gain”by con-necting sending countries to the aggregate“global brain”and the global economy.15 So countries should not overlook the value of a two-way approach.Both immigration and emigration bring in valuable knowledge,financial opportu-nities,and busi

72、ness connections.The flows between and among countries represent strategic opportunities for accessing and sharing information,forging collaborations,and ultimately bolstering innovation.Emigrant workers,like immigrants,transmit industrial know-how home from their receiving countries.16 This is true

73、 of both white-and blue-collar workers.For example,after the 2011 Greek financial crisis,entrepreneurial migrants return-ing home to Albania drove the agricultural sectors transition from subsistence to commercial,boosting wages and ex-panding job opportunities for non-emigrant Albanian work-ers.17

74、In the same vein,inventors see major quantitative and qualitative(as measured by frequency of citation)boosts in patenting after working in different countries and when teaming with other global mobile inventors.18(See Exhibit 5.)The most recent patent from Impossible Foods,the Silicon Valley unicor

75、n,credits 11 inventors who have worked in or hail from such countries as Canada,China,Iran,Russia,Singapore,Spain,and the UK.19 Iranian-born ophthalmolo-gist Dr.Gholam Peyman,who received his medical doctorate in Germany,developed Lasik surgery after moving to the US and joining the faculty at the U

76、niversity of Illinois.Exhibit 5-US and China are Top Global Mobile Inventor Hot SpotsSource:Bahar,Choudhury,Miguelez&Signorelli,“Global Mobile Inventors”(mimeo),working paper.Note:GMI=global mobile inventor.Number of global mobile inventors(in thousands)Country of residence during patent filing17.65

77、.505202.82.72.52.32.01.31.00.9USChinaJapanGermanySouth KoreaCanadaUKIndiaSwitzerlandFranceAdditional GMIs in 2020Total GMIs in 2000BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP|BCG HENDERSON INSTITUTE 7Besides contributing to gains in productivity and innova-tion,both inward migration and outward migration expand the sen

78、ding and receiving countries access to markets and increase their trade.20 This is especially true in the case of migration pathways involving countries with less established institutions or less cultural commonality.For example,migrant networks between Spain and countries in Africa have had a great

79、er impact on increasing trade than migrant networks between Spain and Latin American countries.21The US earns a very high score for connectivity.With its extensive migrant network and the worlds largest popula-tion of global mobile inventors,it ranks first in both cen-trality and circularity.This is

80、 primarily due to its large immigrant populations,as is also the case with Germany,the UK,and France.Conversely,China and India solidify their places in the global network chiefly because of their widespread emigrant diasporas.(See Exhibit 6.)The three core factors of quantity,quality,and connectivi

81、ty,together with their components,independently drive eco-nomic value.Furthermore,a countrys aggregated GTMix score correlates significantly with productivity and innova-tion.(See Exhibit 7.)Specifically,a ten-point improvement in index score translates into 21%higher GDP per capita and a 40%increas

82、e in the number of patents that the country produces(after controlling for income,size,and other country-level differences).There is also a strong corre-lation between GTMix performance and societal accep-tance of immigrant workers.(See the sidebar“Migration Mix and Social Acceptance.”)Exhibit 6-Cen

83、trality Leaders are Hubs of Migration and KnowledgeSource:UN Population Division data.International migrant network visualizationLines connecting dots represent migrant pathways connecting countriesUK9.6 million immigrants4.7 million emigrants#2South Korea1.2 million immigrants2.3 million emigrants#

84、11India5.2 million immigrants17.5 million emigrants#6US50.7 million immigrants2.9 million emigrants#1Israel2.0 million immigrants400,000 emigrants#13Germany13.0 million immigrants4.0 million emigrants#3Rank1100Centrality018,000Number of migrants111 million20.https:/www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/99ac61

85、a3-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/99ac61a3-en;https:/wol.iza.org/articles/impact-of-migration-on-trade/long#:text=It%20is%20now%20widely%20accepted,effects%20and%20immigrant%20preference%20effects.21.Peri&Requena(2009),“The Trade Creation Effect of Immigrants:Testing the Theory on the Remar

86、kable Case of Spain,“NBER Working Paper No.15625.8 a NEW MIGRaTION STRaTEGY FOR GROWTH aND INNOVaTION Countries that rank high on the Global Talent Migration Index(GTMix)also tend to be more accepting of immigrant workers.Responses to the World Values Surveya noncom-mercial survey,conducted every fi

87、ve years,of the social,political,economic,religious,and cultural values of nearly 100 nations,representing around 90%of the worlds popula-tionreveal the extent to which residents of various countries believe that native workers should have hiring priority over immigrants when jobs are scarce.When we

88、 compared these responses to countries GTMix rankings,we found that people in countries with higher GTMix scores agree less with such favoritism.The correlation is apparent over four time periods:1990,2000,2010,and 2020.(See the exhibit.)When we control for year,GDP per capita,population,“highly ski

89、lled”population,region,and economic complexity,the correlation is statistically robust at a 1%level.The correlation between the GTMix and social acceptance highlights that a countrys migration mix can affect its integration outcomes.A closer look at the data reveals that diversity,in particular,is t

90、he driving factor.External re-search has also found that age and social networks are key determinants of immigrant employment and wages:younger immigrants and those who have access to a dias-pora or ethnic community in their destination city tend to have better labor market outcomes.1 The GTMix does

91、nt reward countries for targeting younger immigrants(older,experienced workers fill labor needs,too,and may have more productive knowledge to import),and diversity is an important goal(which may mean bringing immigrants into a country despite a lack of existing social connections there).Even so,publ

92、ic leaders may want to consider age and networks alongside the GTMix framework to facilitate integration.Migration Mix and Social acceptanceGTMix Ranking Correlates with Societal acceptance of Nonnative Workers Sources:World Value Survey Wave 7(latest available data);BCG analysis.Note:The graph trac

93、ks results for the 43 countries for which World Values Survey data is available.GTMix=Global Talent Migration Index.Average responses,by country,to the World Values Survey poll question,“If jobs are scarce,should native workers have hiring priority?”1001324590807060504030201012020 GTMix ranking Degr

94、ee of agreementAgree stronglyNeither agree nor disagreeDisagree strongly1.https:/www.migrationpolicy.org/article/migrant-social-networks-vehicles-migration-integration-and-development;Gustafsson,Mac Innes&sterberg(2017),“Age at immigration matters for labor market integrationthe Swedish example,”IZA

95、 J Develop Migration 7(1);https:/doi.org/10.1186/s40176-017-0087-1;Brell,Dustmann&Preston(2020),“The Labor Market Integration of Refugee Migrants in High-Income Countries,”Journal of Economic Perspectives 34(1):94121.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP|BCG HENDERSON INSTITUTE 9How the Nations RankThe GTMix uses

96、 bilateral migration data to assess countries performance in each of the three factors and their subfactors.(See the sidebar“How We Calculated Countries GTMix Scores.”)No country can maximize its scores in all six dimensions,nor should it necessarily try to do so.Inevitably,national priorities,resou

97、rces,assets,and opportunities will require tradeoffs across dimensions.Nevertheless,the framework gives policymakers a way to step back and view their migration mix through an economic lens,examining metrics that they previously either didnt study or didnt see in aggregate,to identify gaps and oppor

98、tunities.Notable Performers,Overall and Over Time.Countries that rank the highest across all dimensionssize,pull,diversity,complexity,centrality,and circularityhave migration mixes that deliver the most positive economic potential.In an analysis of 100 countries in 2020,the US earned the top spot,fo

99、llowed by Germany,Australia,and the UK.Japan,China,and India,ranked 21st,32nd,and 51st,respectively.(See Exhibit 8.)One especially valuable aspect of the GTMix is that it allows policymakers to assess countries performance over time.Although the top ten spots have seen no new entries over the past 2

100、0 years,Germany and France(for example)have followed noticeably different trajectories.(See Exhibit 9.)Meanwhile,outside the group of countries in the top ten,five East Asian countriesJapan,South Korea,Singa-pore,China,and Malaysiahave gained substantial ground(moving up 6.4 places,on average,since

101、2000),as has Saudi Arabia(up 6 places).Despite ranking lower,a number of emerging players have advanced markedly since 2000,including Indonesia(up 51),Sri Lanka(up 34),Thailand(up 28),and Qatar(up 27).Exhibit 7-Top GTMix Performers are More Productive and InnovativeSources:UN GDP and population esti

102、mates;PatentsView(US Patent and Trademark Office);BCG analysis.Note:GTMix=Global Talent Migration Index.1Three-year sum(to smooth annual variance)of patents filed with the US Patent and Trademark Office and later granted;shown on the Y axis and used as a dependent variable over three time periods in

103、 the regression.10090807060504030201011001001,00010,000100,0001 million110010,0001 million9080706050403020101GDP per capita($)GTMix rank (100 countries)GTMix rank(100 countries)Number of patents1How productive are you?How innovative are you?10 a NEW MIGRaTION STRaTEGY FOR GROWTH aND INNOVaTION We de

104、termined the overall GTMix ranking of each country by computing the sum of its subrankings in each of the six under-lying factors:size and pull for quantity;diversity and complexity for quality;and centrality and circularity for connectivity.(See the exhibit.)A lower sum indicated strong performance

105、 across subrankings and resulted in a higher overall rank.We used UN Population Division data on bilateral migration stocks for all subfactors except pull and circularity.For the quantity factor,we measured size as the ratio of immigrant stock to the total population of the destination country.Pull

106、represents the market share of“highly skilled”immigrants,estimated from Barro-Lee data,using the per-centage of people in the national population age 25 and over with tertiary schooling,with the native population deducted from the total.We looked at a 30-year span,with data taken in 1990,2000,and 20

107、10,to ensure statistical consistency.For the quality factor,we calculated the Herfindahl-Hirschman Indexa widely used measure of the diversity of population groups in such areas as occupation,lan-guage,and religionof immigrant stocks to define a coun-trys diversity score.A nation with a high score f

108、or diversity has immigrants from many places in even proportions.We measured complexity by calculating the weighted average score on the Economic Complexity Index(devised by Har-vard Growth Lab)of the countries of origin,weighted to reflect the relative size of the immigrant population from each ori

109、gin.Economic complexity is a function of the intensity of capabilities and know-how that go into produc-ing and selling any given product.For the connectivity factor,we measured centrality by interpreting the stock-weighted,directed migrant network data as a mathematical network to calculate“between

110、-ness centrality,”a standard measurement in network analysis.“Betweenness centrality”not only measures overall connectedness,but also reflects the importance of nodes that are crucial to the networks connectivity.To gauge circularity,we tracked the number of global mobile inventors who submitted pat

111、ents from each country in a given year.The term global mobile inventorscoined by the economists Bahar,Choudhury,Miguelez,and Signorelli in their working paper of the same namerefers to people who have patented inventions in more than one country in the course of their career.How We Calculated Countr

112、ies GTMix ScoresThe Basis of the Six Index FactorsSources:For market share of“high-skilled”immigrants(pull):Barro&Lee(2013),“a New Data Set of Educational attainment in the World,1950-2010,”Journal of Development Economics 104(C):18498.For weighted average of sending countries economic complexity(co

113、mplexity):Harvard Growth Lab,Economic Complexity Index.For global mobile inventors(circularity):Bahar,Choudhury,Miguelez&Signorelli,“Global Mobile Inventors”(mimeo),working paper;PatentsView(US Patent and Trademark Office);BCG analysis.Note:Population data for all subfactors except pull and circular

114、ity comes from UN Population Division,bilateral migration stocks.GMI=global mobile innovators.QuantitySizeMeasurementRelevancePullQualityDiversityComplexityImmigrant stock/destination populationHigher immigration rates can address labor market shortages and increase entrepreneurship and innovationIm

115、migrants with high formal education tend to have more per capita impact on economic output and innovationMarket share of“high-skilled”immigrants1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of immigrant stocksImmigrants from many places bring varied perspectives that drive innovation;such diversity also enjoys more p

116、ublic supportHigh-complexity countries have sophisticated and specialized production knowledge that immigrants can importWeighted average of sending countries economic complexity2ConnectivityCentralityCircularityBetweenness centrality of stock-weighted,directed migrant networkHigh scorers are hubs o

117、f transmission,both of migrants and of the knowledge they carryGMIs are super innovators:they produce more patents than their domestic counterparts,and their patents are more influential(more frequently cited)Number of GMIspeople who have patented from more than one countryBOSTON CONSULTING GROUP|BC

118、G HENDERSON INSTITUTE 11Performance by Factor.Countries may achieve a high ranking in different ways.Every country that ranks near the top overall leads the pack by a substantial margin in some dimensions while scoring at least somewhat lower in others.The US and Germany earned stellar scores in thr

119、ee criteria(pull,centrality,and circularity),while Australia,Sweden,and Israel achieved their high overall scores by ranking in the top 15 across five of the six criteria.Con-versely,despite ranking outside the top 20 in five of the six criteria,Norway and Denmark won spots in the top 20 overall,tha

120、nks to their high diversity scores.Despite these differences in underlying scores,countries that earn a high overall mark on the GTMix enjoy greater productivity and innovation.Countries that attract the most“highly skilled”immigrants are not the only winners.The GTMix emphasizes the fact that the m

121、ix matters;it encourages public leaders to think beyond the competition for“highly skilled”talent so their countries can unlock the economic benefits that come from investing in a large,diverse immigrant population and a well-connected emigrant diaspora.GTMix and Integration.Immigrant integration is

122、 critical to translating the economic potential of a high-scoring migration mix into positive results.By plotting MIPEX scores,which reflect the effectiveness of countries integration policies,against GTMix scores,we can see which countries are most primed for success.(See Exhibit 10.)Migration mix

123、and integration policies are clearly correlated,yet only one country in the GTMix top 10Canadaalso ranks in the top MIPEX tier.The US and Australia have less than optimal integration policies,and Germany,the UK,and Switzerland have even more room for improvement on their integration measures if they

124、 want to fully realize the potential economic benefits of their migration mix.Exhibit 8-The GTMix Top 50Source:BCG analysis.Note:arrows show change in rank since 2000.GTMix=Global Talent Migration Index.Rank110Rank1120Rank2130Rank3140Rank4150GreeceChinaUAEPhilippinesUkraineQatarCyprusRomaniaMalaysia

125、Croatia278214131162513USGermanyAustraliaUKSwitzerland CanadaIsraelNewZealand SpainFrance11222213ItalySwedenNetherlandsAustriaNorwayDenmarkSaudiArabia RussiaIrelandBelgium2652851116JapanSingaporeLuxembourgBrazilCzechiaSouth KoreaPortugalSouthAfrica FinlandPoland954116584516IndonesiaIcelandArgentinaMe

126、xicoTurkeyHungaryMaltaEstoniaThailandBulgaria57281151315102012 a NEW MIGRaTION STRaTEGY FOR GROWTH aND INNOVaTION 22.https:/www.migrationpolicy.org/article/its-population-ages-japan-quietly-turns-immigration.23.https:/gsp.cgdev.org/legalpathway/employment-permit-system-eps/.24.https:/olc.worldbank.o

127、rg/system/files/2-4.pdf.25.https:/www.programaregressar.gov.pt/en/;https:/www.nbn.org.il/life-in-israel/government-services/rights-and-benefits/the-law-of-return/;https:/www.immigrationspain.es/en/spanish-citizenship-descent/;https:/www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-2a-t

128、emporary-agricultural-workers.Putting the GTMix into Practice Lets take a closer look at how some countries have man-aged to improve their scores across the six dimensions.Pulling The Quantity LeversCountries can improve their size and pull factors in the following ways.Increasing Size.If public sen

129、timent is immigrant-averse,policymakers can start by expanding short-term,job-specific permits for foreign workers.By using this approach,Japan has more than doubled its percentage of nonnative residents from less than 0.8%of its population in 1990 to more than 1.8%as of 2020.22 To make citizens mor

130、e amenable to newcomers from abroad,government policies should support both native and migrant workers econom-ic opportunities.Public communications emphasizing that the country will protect native employment and carefully manage immigration can go a long way toward overcoming resistance.Moreover,me

131、ssaging that consistently respects immigrants from all walks of life will help attract globally mobile talent in search of a welcoming destination.To bring in more blue-collar workers,policymakers should consider launching skills partnership programs with origin countries.For example,South Koreas Em

132、ployment Permit System(EPS)offers the countrys foreign workers pre-and post-admission vocational,cultural,and language training,as well as reintegration support when they return to their country of origin.23 Established in 2004,EPS has reduced the cost to legally employ foreign workers by two-thirds

133、 while raising EPS workers wages.24 Other levers to increase size include diaspora engagementIsrael,Portugal,Spain,and others offer visas to descendants of citizens abroad and residents of colonial relativesand uncapped visa pathways,such as the USs Temporary Agricultural Worker visa.25 Exhibit 9-Th

134、e GTMix Top 10 Source:BCG analysis.Note:GTMix=Global Talent Migration Index.Rank12345678910AustraliaAustraliaAustraliaUSUSSwitzerlandUSGermanyCanadaUSGermanyAustraliaUKGermanySwitzerlandUKSwitzerlandUKUKSwitzerlandGermanyCanadaCanadaCanadaFranceIsraelIsraelIsraelIsraelFranceNew ZealandNew ZealandSwe

135、denNew ZealandSpainSpainNew ZealandSpainFranceFrance1990200020102020BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP|BCG HENDERSON INSTITUTE 13Strengthening Pull.There is no shortage of strategies for attracting“highly skilled”talent.Granting work permits to international students who graduate from the receiving countrys sc

136、hools is a common method,and some coun-tries,such as the UK,also provide permits to graduates of reputable foreign institutions.26 If the countrys schools dont currently attract international students,policymakers might consider investing in enhancing their international appeal,as China has done.27

137、Or they might look to partner-ships with schools overseasin such forms as study abroad and faculty rotation programsto begin enticing foreign workers with advanced educations into the country.Attracting“highly skilled”workers outside academia is another strategy.Well-marketed entrepreneurship and in

138、vestor visa programs can effectively increase a countrys pull.Several countries offer startup visas to appeal specifi-cally to technology entrepreneurs by bundling business resource benefits with work permits.Chiles innovative startup visa program,for instance,offers immigrant entre-preneurs startup

139、 capital,coworking space,and domestic business connections alongside work authorization.28Activating The Quality LeversCountries can tap diversity and complexity to bolster their migration mix in a number of ways.Enriching Diversity.To increase diversity,policymakers should consider whether their cu

140、rrent policies impede this important dimension.For instance,following New Zea-lands switch from bilateral agreements with other former British possessions and with the UK itself to a points-based system in 1987,the countrys odds that two random migrants would hail from different countries of origin

141、increased by 75%over the next three decades.29 Similarly,in the wake of Brexit,the UK is attracting a more global set of immigrants now that EU residents can no longer bypass the points-based system that had been in place for allocat-ing visas to all other migrants since 2008.30Exhibit 10-The GTMix

142、and Integration Must Go Hand in HandSources:Migration Policy Group,2020;BCG analysis.Note:MIPEX scores are not available for all countries in the GTMix ranking.GTMix=Global Talent Migration Index;MIPEX=Migrant Integration Policy Index.20120406080 0406080100100FavorableGTMix rank,2020UnfavorableAlban

143、iaNorth MacedoniaMoldovaLithuaniaLatviaJordanIndiaIndonesiaUAEChinaRussiaSaudi ArabiaBulgariaHungaryTurkeyRomaniaCroatiaCyprusPolandCzechiaJapanDenmarkNetherlandsItalyFranceAustriaSwitzerlandIsraelUKSpainGermanyAustraliaUSCanadaSwedenFinlandPortugalBelgiumLuxembourgIrelandBrazilNew ZealandNorwayGree

144、ceUkraineIcelandArgentinaMexicoEstoniaMaltaSouth AfricaSouth KoreaSlovakiaSloveniaChileMIPEX score,201926.https:/ points-based visa system assesses applicants by applying a rubric that awards points for different characteristics(e.g.,an advanced diploma)and grants admission to those whose total scor

145、e passes a certain threshold;https:/www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/immigration-law-changing-world.30.https:/ a NEW MIGRaTION STRaTEGY FOR GROWTH aND INNOVaTION Although they might represent a step in the right direction for diversity overall,points-based visas may systematically discriminate against cer

146、tain groups of candidates,particu-larly those from lower-income countries.Consequently,countries should be mindful of this possibility and consider creating alternative pathways for those groups.The USs lottery-based Diversity Visa program,for example,desig-nates visas for workers from underrepresen

147、ted countries.31Enhancing Complexity.Countries seeking to develop a specific industry might target bilateral migration with nations that possess the desired expertisefor example,Singapore or Finland for green technology,China or Hungary for electric vehicle batteries,or the US or Germany for phar-ma

148、ceuticals.Countries with recently globalized economies can also leverage their foreign business relationships and economic growth to increase the complexity of their migra-tion mix.After more than 20 years of trade policy expan-sion,Vietnam has extended the duration of its investor visa residence pe

149、rmit from one year to five years and has streamlined real estate acquisition policies for foreigners.32 Although Vietnam ranked in the bottom ten in complexity among the 100 countries we studied in 1990,it ranked in the top 50 in 2020.Government investments in infrastructure and living standards,tog

150、ether with attractive residency permits for nonnatives,can encourage foreign business-people to put down roots.Moving The Connectivity Levers Countries should consider immigration and emigration together to boost connectivity.Capturing the Centrality Dividend.Migrant networks help build countries ec

151、onomic,social,and cultural connec-tivity and influence.Among countries ranked in the GTMix top 20 in 2020,South Korea,Turkey,and South Africa have greatly increased their centrality scores since 2000.In each case,the stronger centrality ranking resulted from growth in the countrys immigrant and emig

152、rant networks.Besides seeing their immigrant population increase by more than 300%,these countries have experienced emigrant popula-tion growth of 30%to 80%.This growth has helped con-struct and reinforce these nations global identities:South Korea as a booming soft power,Turkey as a bridge between

153、East and West,and South Africa as“the gateway to Africa.”Multinational mobility compacts such as the Schengen Agreement can help countries develop network connections in both directions and thus boost their centrality.Since joining the agreement in 2003,Estonia has seen its centrality ranking rise a

154、mid growing emigration.As its prime minister observed in 2004,just prior to the nations entry into the EU,“A small nation can be successful only if the people can move around the world to work,to live,and then,of course,to return.”33 Despite initial concerns,economists at Estonias University of Tart

155、u report that no“brain drain”occurred.34 To the contrary,Estonia has recently seen roughly 30%growth in knowledge-intensive jobs.35 Like immigrants,emigrants expand economies and fuel innovation,linking the sending countries to markets,knowledge,and resources abroad.Tapping the Value of Circularity.

156、To rank high in circularity,countries must attract global mobile inventors:foreigners and returnees alike who have prolific records of patenting in multiple countries.Academia,weve found,is among the most important institutional channels for fostering circularity.China,which now ranks second in circ

157、ularity,saw its score climb 25 points over the past three decades.This significant change arose in part from the countrys investment in bolstering its universities brands globally.It is also a function of Chinas sprawling emigrant population;in both the US and the UK,roughly one-third of internation

158、al university students are Chinese.36Germanys state-funded German Academic Exchange Service(DAAD),the worlds largest such sponsor,offers scholarships,prizes,and awards that incentivize German researchers to work abroad and foreign researchers to work in Germany.Instead of sponsoring individual stude

159、nt exchanges,Indias University Grants Commission has promoted international higher-education partnerships by developing programs jointly with foreign schools.Partici-pating students must complete at least 30%of their coursework abroad.37Unlike policies that focus only on immigration,circularity taps

160、 into migrations broader potential value as a two-way conduit of knowledge,resources,and economic growth.31.https:/www.fwd.us/news/diversity-visa-program/#:text=The%20statutory%20annual%20cap%20for,diversity%20visa%20cap%20at%2050%2C000.32.https:/.vn/vietnam-a-top-destination-for-expats-69391.html.3

161、3.http:/ CONSULTING GROUP|BCG HENDERSON INSTITUTE 15A winning migration strategy can deliver both near-term and long-term payoffs.It can reignite the worlds sput-tering engine of progress and boost economic well-being within and well beyond a countrys borders.Such a strategy requires not only effect

162、ive integration of immigrants,but also an optimal migration mixone that acknowledges the many forms of additive value that global talent offers.This means thinking beyond the battle for highly educated STEM and business professionals and recognizing that the right mix is what matters.BCGs GTMix and

163、its underlying principles can help policy-makers identify the spectrum of skills,talent,and knowl-edge that migration inflows and outflows offer to fuel a resilient and innovative economy.Amid intensifying labor shortages and innovation slowdowns,the value of talent migration is perhaps greater than

164、 ever.As public leaders seek new ways to bolster economic prosperity,the princi-ples behind BCGs GTMix reflect one basic truth:a coun-trys blend of talentbrains and brawnis the fundamen-tal source of its progress.Its time to design strategies to broaden that mix,for the benefit of all.16 a NEW MIGRa

165、TION STRaTEGY FOR GROWTH aND INNOVaTION about the authors Johann Harnoss is a partner and associate director in the Berlin office of Boston Consulting Group.He is also a BCG Henderson Institute fellow and a cofounder and CEO of Imagine Foundation,an NGO.You may contact him by email at .Marley Finley

166、 is a consultant in BCGs New Jersey office.She is also a BCG Henderson Institute ambassador.You may contact her by email at .Hillel Rapoport is a professor at the Paris School of Economics,where he holds the PSE Chair in International Migration Economics.He is also scientific advisor at CEPII and th

167、e Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research.He held visiting positions at Stanford University,Harvard Kennedy School,and at the European University Institute.You may contact him by email at hillel.rapoportpsemail.eu.Janina Kugel is a BCG senior advisor,a non-executive board member for multiple

168、 companies,and former CHRO of Siemens.You may contact her by email at .Dany Bahar is an associate professor of practice of Inter-national and Public Affairs at Brown Universitys Watson Institute,a faculty affiliate of Brown Universitys Econom-ics Department,and a senior fellow of The Growth Lab at t

169、he Harvard Center for International Development.You may contact him by email at dany_baharbrown.edu.Rebekah Smith is the founder and executive director of Labor Mobility Partnerships,where her mission is to create better job opportunities for workers from low-income countries.A practitioner and poli

170、cy entrepreneur,she has spent a decade leading efforts to expand the scope and quality of migration pathways.You may contact her by email at rsmithlampforum.org.Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest

171、opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963.Today,we help clients with total transformationinspiring complex change,enabling organizations to grow,building competitive advantage,and driving bottom-line impact.To succeed,organizations must blend digital and huma

172、n capabilities.Our diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives to spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting along with technology and design,corporate and digital venturesand business purpose.We work in a uniquely

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175、am,que expedignist ex et voluptaquam,offici bernam atqui dem vel ius nus.Nem faccaborest hillamendia doluptae conseruptate inim volesequid molum quam,conseque consedipit hillabo.Imaio evelenditium haribus,con reictur autemost,vendam am ellania estrundem corepuda derrore mporrumquat.For information or permission to reprint,please contact BCG at .To find the latest BCG content and register to receive e-alerts on this topic or others,please visit .Follow Boston Consulting Group on Facebook and Twitter.Boston Consulting Group 2023.All rights reserved.3/23