1、Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered FlightW H I T E P A P E RA P R I L 2 0 2 3In collaboration with McKinsey&CompanyContentsImages:Getty Images,Unsplash 2023 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmit

2、ted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed

3、herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.ForewordExecutive summaryIntroduction1 Infrastructur

4、e for the shift to alternative propulsion1.1 Energy requirements for alternative propulsion1.2 Impact on airport infrastructure2 Investment to fund alternative propulsion infrastructure2.1 Investment levels to support alternative propulsion2.2 Airport investment timelines for alternative propulsion3

5、 Collaboration to deliver alternative propulsion infrastructure3.1 Coordination within the aviation industry3.2 Coordination with other industriesConclusionAppendix:Methodology and referencesContributorsEndnotes345991316161922222325262930Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and

6、 Hydrogen-Powered Flight2ForewordThe aviation sector stands at a critical moment in its history.Over the past century,its impact has been enormous.In connecting communities and helping drive economies across the planet,aviation has become woven into the fabric of our globalized world.However,these g

7、ains have consequences for our environment and the climate crisis.Today,the sector faces a generational business opportunity to transform itself into a sustainable industry.Aviation has a long history of stepping up to challenges.It has continuously innovated in search of greater efficiencies.It has

8、 evolved new business models to adapt to changing realities.And it is positioned to embrace and deliver the historic long-term goal agreed by the International Civil Aviation Organization last year to reach net-zero emissions from international aviation by 2050.Meaningful progress has already been m

9、ade towards sustainable aviation.Both government and industry are demonstrating an awareness of the issues that has begun to translate into strategic planning.The development and initial production of various Sustainable Aviation Fuels is underway.Aircraft efficiency shows ongoing improvements with

10、each new generation,while flight paths and procedures are becoming ever-more streamlined.Research and development of new,zero-carbon propulsion systems and aircraft is well underway.Yet there remains much more work to be done.There is no silver bullet to deliver sustainable aviation.The sector will

11、need to develop and deploy a broad range of solutions,especially given the significant uncertainty around the technical performance and economic viability of the current alternatives.New,zero-emissions,alternative propulsion technologies hold out the promise of helping reduce the climate impact of a

12、viation although the journey to realize the full potential of these technologies is only just beginning.Fortunately,progress is swift and accelerating.This year has already witnessed two records fall for the largest passenger flights ever powered by hydrogen.But along this journey to net zero,there

13、is still so much to do to take these technologies beyond initial prototypes and build the new businesses that will transform aviation.This report focuses on the infrastructure that will be needed to unlock zero-carbon propulsion technologies for aviation.Getting infrastructure right will be critical

14、 in allowing this new industry to take off whether that means“on-airport”infrastructure,such as chargers and refuellers,or“off-airport”infrastructure,such as producing enough green electricity.By helping to reduce the uncertainty that the shift to alternative propulsion will entail,this report aims

15、to support policy-makers and leaders in the private sector to make informed decisions.There is a great deal at stake in getting this transition right.Collaboration across geographies,industries and stakeholders is critical to fast-track aviations trajectory towards a more sustainable future.Robin Ri

16、edel,Partner,McKinsey&CompanyPedro Gomez,Head,Climate,World Economic ForumTarget True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered FlightApril 2023Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight3Executive summaryAs the quest for solutions

17、 to tackle the climate impact of aviation becomes more urgent,the focus is sharpening on the role of alternative propulsion technologies such as hydrogen,battery-electric and hybrid-electric aircraft.By some estimates,aircraft running on hydrogen and battery-electric powertrains could make up 21-38%

18、of the global commercial and cargo aircraft fleet by 2050.1While this timeline may feel distant,these new technologies will begin appearing this decade,requiring new types of ground infrastructure to deliver the green hydrogen and electricity these aircraft will need.At present,however,there is a la

19、ck of understanding about what such infrastructure changes entail and how airports and other stakeholders can begin to prepare for them.This report,produced by Target True Zero a World Economic Forum initiative bringing together leaders from across the aviation and aerospace industries,with support

20、from knowledge partners McKinsey&Company,the University of Cambridges Aviation Impact Accelerator and the Aviation Environment Federation aims to shine a light on some of the key considerations affecting alternative propulsion,as part of Target True Zeros goal of accelerating the development and dep

21、loyment of electric and hydrogen aircraft.The report addresses three dimensions of the challenge:infrastructure,investment and collaboration.Chapter 1 identifies the energy requirements to support alternative propulsion at both the global and airport level by 2050,and what infrastructure this transl

22、ates to.Chapter 2 explores what these requirements mean in terms of the level and timing of investments.Chapter 3 analyses how collaboration will be needed to deliver appropriate infrastructure across the aviation and other sectors.The reports findings are built on 10 key insights developed through

23、McKinsey&Company analysis,informed by workshops and conversations with industry leaders held by Target True Zero:1.Global demand for alternative propulsion could require 600-1,700 TWh of clean energy by 2050.This is equivalent to the energy generated by around 10-25 of the worlds largest wind farms,

24、or a solar farm half the size of Belgium.2.Large airports could consume 5-10 times more electricity by 2050 than they do today,to support alternative propulsion.3.Alternative propulsion will require two new infrastructure value chains one for battery-electric aviation and one for hydrogen which may

25、include a whole variety of new partners that are not currently part of the aviation ecosystem.4.Most airports have space for hydrogen liquefaction and storage infrastructure,but not enough land to generate all of the clean energy needed to power battery-electric and hydrogen aircraft.5.Shifting to a

26、lternative propulsion will require a capital investment of between$700 billion and$1.7 trillion across the value chain by 2050.Approximately 90%of this investment will be for off-airport infrastructure,primarily power generation and hydrogen electrolysis and liquefaction.6.Investment needed for airp

27、ort infrastructure will be significantly higher for large airports than for smaller airports,but of similar magnitude to other major investments such as building a new terminal.7.Costs to operators of alternative propulsion are expecter to be around 76-86%over the market price for green electricity

28、reflecting additional aviation infrastructure operating costs.8.The investments needed to meet 2050 goals must start now.The first elements of on-airport infrastructure must be in place by 2025 to meet expected energy demand.9.To harness the power of network effects and regional connectivity,coordin

29、ation of infrastructure investment will be required to make alternative propulsion operations feasible.10.The aviation industry will need to partner with other industries to secure enough green electricity and hydrogen in a supply-constrained environment and have a voice in shaping the future of the

30、 hydrogen ecosystem.With these findings,Target True Zero plans to identify how it can further work with key stakeholders to deliver the infrastructure changes that are needed to support the alternative propulsion ecosystem.New types of infrastructure will be essential for supporting battery and hydr

31、ogen-powered aircraft that will begin operating this decade.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight4IntroductionPlanning for infrastructure needs to begin now,to prepare for the arrival of the first battery and hydrogen-powered aircraft this decade.Avia

32、tion accounts for about 2%of global carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions,but its overall contribution to climate change is believed to be significantly higher when non-CO2 emissions are considered.2 This percentage is likely to grow considerably as other sectors decarbonize.In search of solutions to this pr

33、oblem,the industry has taken the first steps towards embracing sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)a drop-in hydrocarbon fuel that can reduce lifecycle emissions.Given the scale of the problem,however,attention has also begun to focus on the role of new,alternative propulsion technologies such as battery

34、and hydrogen-powered aircraft that dont rely on carbon at all.3To help build consensus around the role that alternative propulsion can play in decarbonizing the sector and to accelerate the development and deployment of key aircraft technologies,the World Economic Forum has established the Target Tr

35、ue Zero coalition to bring together key leaders in this space,complementing the work of the Forums Clean Skies for Tomorrow coalition to scale-up the use of SAF.Target True Zeros first report,published in July 2022,detailed the potential of three battery and hydrogen-powered technologies for reducin

36、g the sectors climate impacts:4 Battery-electric:Batteries can be used to power electric motors,which then drive a propeller directly.Battery-electric aircraft would eliminate all in-flight emissions5 with their range forecast to be up to 400 km in 2035 and potentially rising to 600 km in 2050.Hydro

37、gen fuel cell electric:Fuel cells can be used to convert hydrogen and air into water and electricity.Hydrogen fuel cell aircraft would eliminate nearly all in-flight emissions6 but they could release water vapour at altitude that could lead to the formation of climate-warming contrails.7 Nevertheles

38、s,hydrogen fuel cells could allow electric aircraft to be designed with a much longer range than those powered by batteries potentially providing a fuel cell aircraft with a range of around 2,000 km by 2030 and up to 4,000 km by 2035.Hydrogen combustion:Liquid or gaseous hydrogen can be combusted in

39、 a gas turbine in the same way that jet fuel is today,and it may be possible to design a hydrogen combustion aircraft that operates over the same distance as existing long-haul airliners by 2035.Hydrogen combustion aircraft would eliminate CO2 and soot emissions in-flight,but would still produce nit

40、rogen oxides(NOx).The degree to which these could form climate-warming contrails means there is uncertainty about the overall climate impact of this technology.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight5By some estimates,these alternative propulsion aircra

41、ft(and hybrid variations of them)could make up over one-third of all aircraft in operation by 2050.8 While this may seem like a distant timeline,the first commercial aircraft powered by alternative propulsion could be flying by the mid-2020s,with a multitude of companies working to bring these aircr

42、aft to market in response to pressure from customers(operators and passengers),investors and the changing regulatory landscape.These developments can be seen across all segments of the aviation sector:Advanced Air Mobility:There are hundreds of designs for electrical vertical take-off and landing(eV

43、TOL)aircraft which would carry a small number of passengers short distances such as from city centres to airports or between nearby cities.These new technologies will enable what is known as Advanced Air Mobility(AAM)or Urban Air Mobility(UAM)and can either be viewed as an extension of the existing

44、aviation sector or as a new industry entirely.Manufacturers of the first passenger-carrying eVTOL aircraft are aiming to certify these from as early as 2024.9 Regional aviation:These are the shortest-range flights currently considered as commercial aviation and typically cover routes of less than 80

45、0 km.A number of solutions are being developed,including fully electric aircraft,hybrid-electric aircraft and the retrofit of existing smaller aircraft with hydrogen fuel cell technology.All of these could be operating commercially by the second half of this decade.10 Larger and longer-range:Retrofi

46、tted aircraft with hydrogen fuel cells are planned from the beginning of the next decade,while clean-sheet designs of new hydrogen propulsion aircraft including those powered by hydrogen combustion engines could be seen by the mid-2030s.11Timeframes to adopt alternative propulsion,by technology up t

47、o 2050FIGURE 1The Mission Possible Partnership(MPP)prudent scenario estimates alternative propulsion penetration of 21%by 2050 vs.38%for the optimistic scenarioAdoption timeline from MPP,%of global aircraft fleetBattery-electricExpected market niche in 2050:Regional air mobility,currently served by

48、turboprops and short regional jet flights(e.g.ATR42,Embraer E175)Battery-electric(BE)aircraft are expected to be limited to regional and narrow-body flights 500 nm.MPP Prudent scenarioMPP Optimistic scenarioExpected market niche in 2050:Narrow-bodies(e.g.Boeing 757,Airbus A321)Expected market niche

49、in 2050:Smaller narrow-bodies and regional jets(e.g.Airbus A220,Embraer E195)0%15%30%20202030204020501%0%0%3%4%5%0%15%30%20202030204020502%2%6%0%15%30%20202030204020500%1%4%0%0%7%12%27%16%Hydrogen combustionHydrogen fuel cell1%Notes:Adoption timeline based on the Mission Possible Partnerships Making

50、 Net-Zero Aviation Possible report,with adoption driven by technological readiness and forecasted total cost of ownership(TCO).Under the MPP scenarios,by 2050 conventional aircraft are expected to make up 62-79%of the global fleet and 82-97%of wide-body aircraft.In order to meet the industrys net-ze

51、ro targets,these aircraft will need to be primarily fuelled by sustainable aviation fuels which provide 65-85%of the industrys overall energy use in the MPP scenarios.Sources:McKinsey&Co.,adapted from Mission Possible Partnership,Making Net-Zero Aviation Possible,July 2022.Target True Zero:Deliverin

52、g the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight6As alternative propulsion technologies continue to mature,it can be expected that these will make up ever larger parts of the aviation fleets energy mix.So although this report is intended to provide airports and stakeholders with informat

53、ion to help them begin making decisions about alternative propulsion aircraft,there will be further investments required beyond the scope of 2050 that are not quantified in this paper.This report makes use of four airport archetypes to understand how alternative propulsion infrastructure could devel

54、op under different scenarios(see Figure 2).The scope of this report has been limited to upgrades to infrastructure required for traditional aviation services that operate from airports.While eVTOLs and other AAM technologies may make use of electric charging or other facilities at airports in the fu

55、ture,they will also require very different types of infrastructure such as“vertiports”in urban areas which are not addressed within this paper.The four airport archetypes used in this report are:Intercontinental hubs,which comprise roughly the 40 largest commercial and cargo airports in the world,su

56、ch as UKs London Heathrow and Changi in Singapore.Major regional airports,comprising approximately 200 medium-sized airports acting as domestic hubs,such as Hamburg in Germany or Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in the US.Small regional airports,including all other airports with regularly s

57、cheduled services that act primarily as spokes in the larger aviation network.Municipal airports,which support exclusively general aviation aircraft(for private transport and recreation).Ensuring the required infrastructure is in place to operate these aircraft is going to be critical to their succe

58、ss.This means not only new physical infrastructure at airports,such as hydrogen storage tanks and battery charging stations,but also vast amounts of green energy to ensure that these new technologies reduce the sectors emissions rather than simply transferring them to upstream power generators.Some

59、of the considerations airports and other stakeholders will need to think about include:how they are sourcing this green energy,implications for their electricity grids,the levels of investment required and the impacts on day-to-day operations as well as how new businesses across the value chain can

60、be built and scaled-up to support these new types of aircraft.While these implications are not yet fully understood,planning for them will need to begin now to accommodate the first generation of alternative propulsion aircraft and to ensure they reach the potential they offer for decarbonizing the

61、sector.This report builds on the previous Target True Zero work to help provide insights and quantify some of the key requirements related to alternative propulsion infrastructure,to allow airports and other stakeholders to begin making informed decisions for the future.In order to analyse what infr

62、astructure will be needed to support alternative propulsion,the report draws insights based on traffic forecasts from the Aviation Transition Strategy of the Mission Possible Partnership(MPP).12 While different forecasts exist around the speed and extent to which battery and hydrogen-powered aircraf

63、t will appear in the fleet,MPPs analysis is based on an assessment of how the industry can reach net-zero emissions by 2050.It therefore represents the level of ambition needed if aviation is to meet the 2050 goals set by both the global industry and the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICA

64、O).13 Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight7Four airport archetypes(2050 forecasts)FIGURE 2Intercontinental hub(e.g.Singapore Changi)Traffic volumeFlights by aircraft typeDaily flightsDaily seatsWide-bodiesNarrow-bodiesRegional jetsTurbopropsGeneral a

65、viationUrban air mobility1,6701011924778Traffic volumeFlights by aircraft typeDaily flightsDaily seatsWide-bodiesNarrow-bodiesRegional jetsTurbopropsGeneral aviationUrban air mobility320000320Major regional airport(e.g.Hamburg Airport)Traffic volumeFlights by aircraft typeDaily seats53,046Daily flig

66、hts768Wide-bodies34Narrow-bodies255Regional jets31Turboprops20General aviation96Urban air mobility332Traffic volumeFlights by aircraft typeDaily seats182,135Daily flights2,534Wide-bodies238Narrow-bodies690Regional jets128Turboprops14General aviation53Urban air mobility1,410Small regional airport(e.g

67、.Palmas Airport,Brazil)General aviation airportsSource:McKinsey&Co.Throughout this report,a distinction is made between“on-airport”and“off-airport”infrastructure costs.While exceptions will exist,on-airport infrastructure costs are those most likely to be covered by airports,including a portion of h

68、ydrogen liquefaction,as well as liquid hydrogen storage,mobile refuelling,hydrants and other airport infrastructure.Off-airport infrastructure includes the means to generate most of the green electricity needed for hydrogen electrolysis and liquefaction processes that are more likely to occur in non

69、-airport locations.While airports will be the most visible stakeholder in terms of delivering infrastructure for alternative propulsion,they cannot do this alone.Collaboration will be needed across the aviation sector as well as with stakeholders in adjacent sectors and the wider renewable energy ec

70、osystem.This report has been produced through workshops and discussions held by the World Economic Forums Target True Zero coalition with industry experts on the challenges that will need to be overcome to deliver infrastructure for alternative propulsion.This paper focuses on the high-level decisio

71、ns airports will need to make about which investments are required,when they need to be made,and what is needed in terms of the wider ecosystem.There will also be challenges for airports related to the operational aspects of alternative propulsion aircraft(e.g.potentially longer turn-around times,th

72、e need to support fleets running on different fuels),which Target True Zero plans to address during future stages of its work.The report addresses three dimensions of the challenge:infrastructure,investment and collaboration.Chapter 1 identifies the energy requirements to support alternative propuls

73、ion at both the global and airport level by 2050,and what infrastructure this translates to.Chapter 2 explores what these requirements mean in terms of the level and timing of investments.Chapter 3 analyses how collaboration will be needed to deliver appropriate infrastructure across the aviation an

74、d other sectors.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight8Infrastructure for the shift to alternative propulsion1On-and off-airport infrastructure will largely be determined by the overall energy requirements for alternative propulsion.For alternative pro

75、pulsion to reduce lifecycle emissions from aviation,it is going to require clean energy renewable or low-carbon electricity and green hydrogen to power the aircraft using these technologies.While the energy demands of battery or hydrogen-powered aircraft will depend on the extent to which they are a

76、dopted in coming decades currently unknown the resulting energy demands could be extremely high.The MPPs Aviation Transition Strategy developed by the World Economic Forum and other stakeholders identifies a range of scenarios for the adoption of different propulsion technologies required for the in

77、dustry to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.The prudent and optimistic scenarios from that work are used as the basis of the analysis in this paper.Under these scenarios,battery-electric and hydrogen powered aircraft are forecast to make up between 21%and 38%of all aircraft by 2050,or 15-34%of the se

78、ctors overall energy needs.As illustrated in Figure 3,under these scenarios,alternative propulsion could require between 600 and 1,700 TWh of clean energy by 2050,globally equivalent to the energy generated by around 10-25 of the worlds largest windfarms or a solar farm the size of Belgium.14 The va

79、st majority(89-96%)of this will be used for hydrogen-powered aircraft,while only 4-11%will be used to power battery-electric aircraft,which are expected to be smaller aircraft(e.g.turboprops,regional jets,smaller narrow-bodies).Alternative propulsion will need to be supported by both green energy an

80、d appropriate infrastructure to deliver this energy to the aircraft.This chapter identifies the overall energy requirements for alternative propulsion and what this means for the physical infrastructure that will need to be provided.Energy requirements for alternative propulsion1.1Insight 1:Global d

81、emand for alternative propulsion could require between 600 and 1,700 TWh of clean energy by 2050.This is equivalent to the energy generated by around 10-25 of the worlds largest wind farms,or a solar farm half the size of Belgium.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydroge

82、n-Powered Flight9Under either scenario illustrated in Figure 3,approximately 90%of this electric power will be consumed by hydrogen electrolysis,which is expected to take place off-airport given the scale of power generation required.Nevertheless,while requirements will differ depending on the type

83、of airport in question,airports are going to consume more energy for their on-site operations than they do today.The demands will be biggest for intercontinental hubs and major regional airports which will need to support larger hydrogen aircraft.In the case of a large hub airport looking to invest

84、in its own highly energy-intensive onsite hydrogen liquefaction,as well as charging for battery-electric aircraft,total onsite electricity consumption(including for terminal,ground support and other uses)could be between 1,250 and 2,450 GWh per year about 5-10 times more electricity than London Heat

85、hrow currently consumes.15 To meet these demands,airports will need to take steps to upgrade grid connections,local power distribution infrastructure and their own power stations.Forecast energy demand for alternative propulsion under Mission Possible Partnership prudent and optimistic scenariosFIGU

86、RE 3Annual electric power consumption needed to support alternative propulsion(battery-electric&hydrogen)by 2050(TWh)MPP prudent scenario(21%of all aircraft)Hydrogen-powered aircraft account for 89%of electric power demandHydrogen electrolysisHydrogen liquefactionHydrogen cold storage and pumpingAir

87、craft battery chargingTotal4965386361,6534287198MPP optimistic scenario(38%of all aircraft)Hydrogen-powered aircraft account for 96%of electric power demandHydrogen electrolysisHydrogen liquefactionHydrogen cold storage and pumpingAircraft battery chargingTotal1,3861,497111602175156Off-airportOn-air

88、portCurrent state:airports consume electricity for terminal operations(e.g.lighting,HVAC,water management)1,2502,450Future state:airports could consume 5-10 times more electricity to support alternative propulsionTotalLiquefactionPumping and coolingAircraft chargingTerminalTerminalFuture stateCurren

89、t state28028020704505005001,600Electricity consumption at a typical intercontinental hub,GWh per yearInsight 2:Large airports could consume 5-10 times more electricity by 2050 than they do today,to support alternative propulsion.Source:McKinsey&Co.Note:International hub airports are assumed to have

90、onsite hydrogen liquefaction infrastructure.Impact of energy consumption for large airportsFIGURE 4Notes:1 The terminal figure(280 GWh/yr)is based on direct grid electricity consumption at London Heathrow in 2019;we assume the same consumption in 2050,though other factors may drive changes(e.g.energ

91、y efficiency improvements,increased ground vehicle charging requirements etc.).2 The low end of costs is assumed in MPPs prudent scenario;the mid-range is assumed for MPPs optimistic scenario.Source:McKinsey&Co.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight10I

92、mpact of energy requirements on the alternative propulsion value chainWith a grasp of the energy requirements for alternative propulsion,it is possible to begin to understand the different roles airports and other stakeholders will need to play in delivering this infrastructure.This in turn will inv

93、olve understanding what the new value chain for alternative propulsion looks like.Alternative propulsion will require two new infrastructure value chains one for battery-electric aviation and one for hydrogen which may include a whole variety of new partners that are not currently part of the aviati

94、on ecosystem.These value chains will need to coexist with the infrastructure required for SAF and conventional fuel.The sector will need new procedures for energy acquisition,storage,processing and management,as well as the means to distribute that energy to aircraft,as summarized below and in Figur

95、e 5:Battery-electric:the generation and delivery of clean energy,along with energy storage and management,will likely require the following:Upgrades to grid infrastructure Direct-charging stations at airports or battery-swapping systems for the distribution of energy to aircraftHydrogen:there are se

96、veral possible models.Aviation will likely be more reliant on liquid than gaseous hydrogen,given that it takes up less space and is therefore better suited as an aircraft fuel.Different models for providing airports with liquid hydrogen and associated refuelling challenges include the following:Liqu

97、efaction of hydrogen offsite,which is then delivered to the airport Delivery of gaseous hydrogen to the airport,which is liquefied onsite Onsite production(likely very limited)and liquefaction Storage and distribution of liquid hydrogen(which must be kept at temperatures below 240C)will present uniq

98、ue challenges for airports,requiring robust energy management and safety systems.Depending on the size of the airport and the types of aircraft in operation,airports may use mobile fuelling bowsers,which could include modular tanks of hydrogen that can be installed and uninstalled directly from the

99、aircraft,or an underground hydrant system for dispersing hydrogen.Insight 3:Alternative propulsion will require two new infrastructure value chains one for battery-electric aviation and one for hydrogen which may include a whole variety of new partners that are not currently part of the aviation eco

100、system.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight11Summary of alternative propulsion value chainsFIGURE 5Battery-electricEnergy acquisitionHydrogen(combustion and fuel cell)Energy storage,processing and managementDistribution to aircraftEnergy from onsite

101、or offsite zero-carbon sources(e.g.solar,wind,hydroelectric)High-voltage connection from sourceHigh-voltage power lines from onsite production site or electrical gridTransformerHigh-voltage transformer to stepdown voltageEnergy storage systemStorage of surplus energy from onsite renewables or off-pe

102、ak,low-cost energy from gridEnergy management systemMonitoring of power supply,demand and distribution to charging stationsMaintenance systemsDiagnostic equipment and maintenance techniciansSafety systemsEmergency shutdown systems and firefighting equipmentFixed charging stations at airport gates or

103、 battery-swapping system to remove and replace aircraft batteryControl systemsTelecommunication and digital infrastructure(e.g.operations platform)and system operatorsDirect aircraft chargingBattery-swapping systemClean energy delivered to airport via gridClean energy generated onsiteOnsite electrol

104、ysis or transport of hydrogen from production facility via truck or pipeline to airportStorage and distributionStorage of liquid hydrogen in insulated tanks and transfer to refuelling system(not applicable for modular capsule approach)Energy management systemsMonitoring of energy supply,demand and d

105、istribution Maintenance systemsDiagnostic equipment and maintenance techniciansSafety systemsBackup generator for critical systems(pressors)and specialized firefighting equipmentControl systemsTelecommunication and digital infrastructure(e.g.operations platform)and system operatorsDelivery of hydrog

106、en to aircraft via refuelling bowser,modular capsules or fixed cryogenic pipelineMobile refuellingsystemHydrant systemLiquefactionConversion of gaseous hydrogen to liquidGaseous hydrogen delivered to airportOnsite hydrogen productionEnergy acquisitionEnergy storage,processing and managementDistribut

107、ion to aircraftLiquid hydrogen delivered to airport via tanker truck or reusable capsulesSource:McKinsey&Co.,adapted from Connected Places Catapult,The Roadmap to Zero Emission Flight Infrastructure,April 2022.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight12Wh

108、ile airports have been touted as possible energy hubs,the scale of energy demand for alternative propulsion noted above means it will be extremely challenging for all energy production to be performed onsite at airports.For instance,if Paris Charles De Gaulle Airport(see Figure 6)is used as an examp

109、le of a major international hub,it would require approximately 5,800 hectares of solar panels to generate sufficient electricity to meet its demands under the MPPs prudent scenario to power the electrolysis,liquefaction,storage and pumping of liquid hydrogen and to charge battery-electric aircraft.T

110、his space far exceeds the size of the airport itself which is 3,300 hectares today.16 As a result of these requirements,it is likely that airports will be reliant on partnerships with other electricity providers within their regional ecosystems.There may,nevertheless,be opportunities for some onsite

111、 electricity generation,while some onsite storage may be needed to power terminals or charge battery-electric aircraft.But each airports situation will be unique and will depend on its energy strategy.For example,if Paris Charles De Gaulle Airport were to buy less-costly electricity overnight and th

112、en store enough to cover 50%of the energy required for battery-electric flights,it would only require around two hectares of land for its energy storage system,which could probably be accommodated onsite.While it is expected that most of the energy generation for alternative propulsion will be perfo

113、rmed off-airport due to space constraints,the actual processes reliant on this energy would require much less land and could therefore be located on-airport.For instance,it is estimated that to support alternative propulsion at the levels consistent with the MPP scenarios in 2050 Charles De Gaulle w

114、ould need 1-12 hectares of space for the hydrogen electrolysis process and 3-12 hectares for hydrogen liquefaction and storage.However,due to economic and efficiency reasons these processes could occur offsite and it is likely this would be the case for electrolysis in particular.Impact on airport i

115、nfrastructure1.2Case study of airport land requirements Paris Charles De Gaulle AirportFIGURE 6New land-use needs at a typical intercontinental hubParis Charles De Gaulle Airport(land area:3,237 ha)Land required for infrastructure increases proportionally to air traffic(i.e.energy required)H2 liquef

116、action and storage(312 ha)25 ha square(0.25 km2)to same scale as map of airport below312 ha112 ha500 mH2 electrolysis(112 ha)Solar power generation(5,80023,000 ha)MPP Prudent scenario232 x 25 ha squaresMPP Optimistic scenario920 x 25 ha squaresCan likely be built on airport property Can likely be bu

117、ilt on airport property Will require off-airport facilitiesInsight 4:Most airports have space for hydrogen liquefaction and storage infrastructure,but not enough land to generate all of the clean energy needed to power battery-electric and hydrogen aircraft.Source:McKinsey&Co.Target True Zero:Delive

118、ring the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight13Informed by these insights,Figures 7 and 8 provide high-level overviews of what such infrastructure requirements would mean for a“day in the life”of both hydrogen-based(fuel cell and combustion)and battery-electric airport infrastructu

119、re.A day in the life of hydrogen-based airport infrastructureFIGURE 7For hydrogen-powered aircraft,an airport can acquire hydrogen in various ways or produce it itself onsiteLiquid hydrogen is brought to the airport apron via cryogenic pipelines,mobile refuelling bowsers or trucks with LH2 tanksCryo

120、genic tanker trucks deliver liquid hydrogen to the airport.They connect with a refuelling pipe to offload hydrogen into storage tanks.Gaseous hydrogen is brought to the airport by a pipeline or tube trailer truck.Gaseous hydrogen is produced onsite with an electrolyser.Clean energy powers the electr

121、icity-intensive process.Gaseous hydrogen is converted to liquid by the liquefaction plant and is pumped into cryogenic storage tanks.Liquid H2 delivered to airport:Gaseous H2 delivered to airport:Gaseous H2 produced at airport:Liquid H2 produced at airport:Liquid hydrogen is pumped from the storage

122、tank through underground cryogenic pipelines to the apron.Autonomous hydrant dispenser vehicles provide a connection between the aircraft and the pipeline.An automated refuelling arm connects fuel hoses to the aircraft.The refuelling process is supervised remotely.Liquid hydrogen is pumped to a bows

123、er loading facility.Robotic arms connect refuelling hoses to a bowser and pump liquid hydrogen into its tank.One or more refuelling bowsers travel across the apron to fuel the aircraft.After refuelling,the bowser travels back to the loading facility.The refuelling process is supervised remotely.Hydr

124、ant system:Hydrant system:Mobile bowsers:Mobile bowsers:Aircraft are refuelled using modular tanks which are loaded into aircraft with existing cargo handling equipment and replaced when empty.Modular tanks:Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight14A day

125、 in the life of battery-electric airport infrastructureFIGURE 8Clean energy is generated offsite by the airports energy provider or it is generated on the airport site to supplement grid electricity.Energy supply is fed into high-capacity power lines.Airports acquire clean energy from onsite or offs

126、ite production to power charging stations for battery-electric aircraftAt the gate,aircraft are either automatically or manually connected to the fixed charging stations.If manual,this process is performed by a ground support employee with minimal additional safety equipment required.When batteries

127、are sufficiently charged,aircraft are disconnected from the stations.Aircraft batteries are charged as needed ahead of flightPower lines feed energy into transformers.The airports energy management system directs the supply of electricity from either the energy storage system or directly from the tr

128、ansformer into the power distribution network.The power distribution network supplies electricity from the grid or through energy storage systems via underground cables to fixed aircraft chargers located at each gate serviced by battery-electric aircraft.The electricity is transported to aircraft ch

129、arging stations located at the rampTarget True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight15Investment to fund alternative propulsion infrastructure2Airports will need to begin planning for investments now to prepare for the arrival of the first alternative propulsion

130、aircraft.Based on the energy requirements for alternative propulsion identified in Chapter 1,it is estimated that the capital investment to deliver this will be in the region of$700 billion to$1.7 trillion in total for the period to 2050.As it is expected that about 90%of the energy consumption for

131、alternative propulsion will occur off-airport,a similar proportion of investment will be for off-airport infrastructure including include clean power generation and distribution,hydrogen electrolysis and liquefaction,and power transmission and distribution.Delivering the necessary on-airport and off

132、-airport infrastructure is going to require significant investment from airports and other stakeholders.This section identifies the levels of investments that will be required for different types of airports and when these will need to be made.Investment levels to support alternative propulsion2.1In

133、sight 5:Shifting to alternative propulsion will require a capital investment of$700 billion to$1.7 trillion across the value chain by 2050.Approximately 90%of this investment will be for off-airport infrastructure,primarily power generation and hydrogen electrolysis and liquefaction.Total global cap

134、ital investment required by 2050 to support alternative propulsionFIGURE 9MPP prudent scenario(21%of all aircraft)$billions,2022Clean power generationHydrogen electrolysis and liquefactionPower transmission and distributionOnsite airport infrastructureTotal7411,747MPP optimistic scenario(38%of all a

135、ircraft)Clean power generationHydrogen electrolysis and liquefactionPower transmission and distributionOnsite airport infrastructureTotalOff-airportOn-airport41116627878719666246751,5261,632114Source:McKinsey&Co.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight16

136、Capital expenditures(capex)in green power generation for aviation alone would double current projections for global airport capex($1.68 trillion by 2040 at$84 billion per year).17 This makes it almost certain that aviation will need to partner with other industries(e.g.energy providers,hydrogen-cons

137、uming industries)to ensure the required investment.On-airport infrastructure capex,which makes up the remaining 10%of total capex,is a more modest$66-114 billion in total up to 2050(see Figure 10).This represents the equivalent of 0.8 to 1.4 years of incremental investment in airport reconstruction

138、and expansion based on the current average spend.When the total on-airport capex required is broken down by airport archetypes,an intercontinental hub could expect to invest a total of approximately$3.9 billion up to 2050 across the whole value chain(including energy acquisition and hydrogen product

139、ion)while the investment for a major regional airport would be in the range of$1.3 billion(see Figure 11).Putting this in perspective,the capex costs for an international hub or major regional airport would be roughly equivalent to the LaGuardia Airport terminal expansion18 or about 20%of the cost o

140、f London Heathrows third runway project.19 The costs for smaller airports will be much lower as these will not have to support larger aircraft that require more advanced infrastructure.Global capital investment required by 2050 for on-airport infrastructure to support alternative propulsionFIGURE 10

141、MPP prudent scenario(21%of all aircraft)00MPP optimistic scenario(38%of all aircraft)$billions,202266114H2 mobile refuellingH2 hydrant systemH2 maintenance,safety&controlsBE power distributionBE transformer and storageBE direct aircraft chargingBE maintenance,safety&controlsTotalOnsite H2 liquefacti

142、onH2 storage facilities11279179146237136215Some cost buckets could be reduced or eliminated using modular approaches(e.g.capsule H2)Hydrants and liquefaction only included at largest airports by 2050 in optimistic scenario based on TCO analysis345Insight 6:Investment needed for airport infrastructur

143、e will be significantly higher for large airports than for smaller airports,but of similar magnitude to other major investments such as building a new terminal.Source:McKinsey&Co.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight17Insight 7:Costs to operators of a

144、lternative propulsion are expected to be around 76-86%over the market price for green electricity reflecting additional aviation infrastructure operating costs.While this report focuses on the capital expenditure on infrastructure required for alternative propulsion,another important consideration f

145、or airports and operators that will determine the adoption of battery-electric and hydrogen aircraft is their operational expenditure particularly the cost of energy to power them.As well as the costs of producing green energy,there will be additional operating costs associated with the infrastructu

146、re needed to process the energy so that it can be used to power aircraft.This aviation infrastructure addition is analogous to the“crack spread”difference between a barrel of crude oil and the petroleum products refined from it.Compared to the base-cost of green electricity,it is estimated that the

147、aviation infrastructure addition for battery-electric aircraft which covers the transmission of the electricity to the airport,its processing,storage and finally its distribution to aircraft-will be in the region of 86%in 2050.The total aviation infrastructure addition for hydrogen is expected to be

148、 lower about 76%.This includes the costs associated with producing hydrogen via electrolysis,liquefaction,delivery,processing,storage and distribution to the aircraft.Total capex required for alternative propulsion infrastructure at different airport archetypes up to 2050FIGURE 11Energy acquisition

149、and productionFuel storage and processingDistribution to aircraftFuel management,back-up and safety systemsTotalMPP prudent scenario($millions,2022)Intercontinental hubBattery-electricHydrogenEnergy acquisition and productionFuel storage and processingDistribution to aircraftFuel management,back-up

150、and safety systemsTotalMajor regional airportSmall regional airportMunicipal airport3,37153163,4211,0881715004023,921786.71,1074.52.21.53.657210.82211,328272118720.10.10.5395251227210911Source:McKinsey&Co.Notes:1 Includes capex for zero-emission energy generation;2 Airport would be unlikely to cover

151、 the full cost of energy acquisition and production on its ownTarget True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight18The levels of on-airport infrastructure investment required to support alternative propulsion are significant but likely to be manageable for airports

152、 in the context of overall investment.Furthermore,the number of battery and hydrogen-powered aircraft will enter service gradually,so it will be possible to ramp up infrastructure requirements at a similar pace.Nevertheless,airports will need to start investing now to support the first battery-elect

153、ric and hydrogen aircraft flights,due to begin in just a few years.Airport investment timelines for alternative propulsion2.2Insight 8:The investments needed to meet 2050 goals must start now.The first elements of on-airport infrastructure must be in place by 2025 to meet expected energy demand.Batt

154、ery-electric aircraft infrastructure including chargers,grid connections and energy storage systems will be needed for at-scale battery-electric operations and could take between two and four years from investment to installation.Airports are already connected to power grids and may have electrical

155、ground support equipment and EV-charging in place.While grid connection upgrades and energy storage systems are likely to be required as these aircraft become more popular,battery-electric infrastructure will be relatively easy to scale up.By contrast,hydrogen infrastructure is much less likely to b

156、e incremental and airports may need to rebuild onsite hydrogen infrastructure as adoption increases or they may be able to skip certain steps based on growth forecasts.Aviation infrastructure additions for alternative propulsion in 2050FIGURE 12Aviation infrastructure addition for liquid hydrogen(LH

157、2)fuelGreen electricityHydrogen electrolysisHydrogen liquefactionHydrogen liquefactionDelivery to airport using LH2 trucksOn-airport processing and storageOn-airport processing and storageDistribution to aircraftDistribution to aircraftDelivery to airportTotalTotal$/MWh(costs reflect investment up t

158、o 2050,in 2022 dollars)Aviation infrastructure addition for battery-electric power$/MWh(costs reflect investment up to 2050,in 2022 dollars)+76%+86%51101-136108-143331550-8558281021112Based on scenario involving a regional airport located 100 km from a large electrolysis and liquefaction facility in

159、 2050 with LH2 delivery to the airport by truck aircraft-fuelling using bowsers or other ground vehicles.Assumes green electricity prices of$50-$85 per MWh,corresponding to the midpoint of forecasts used in MPPs prudent and optimistic scenarios,respectively.Costs account for upgrade of electrical tr

160、ansmission to an airport,but not for upgrade of electrical transmission to an offsite electrolysis and liquefaction plant.Hydrogen production assumes 69%electrolysis energy efficiency using green electricity at a 90%utilization rate,with straight-line depreciation of capex investments over a 25-year

161、 lifetime of assets.No inclusion of margins.Notes:Source:McKinsey&Co.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight19Models of liquid hydrogen(LH2)distribution for aviationFIGURE 13All-in-one truckIncreasing H2 aviation trafficModelDescriptionIllustration1-Tru

162、cks deliver LH2 fuel to the airport either in a single liquid tank or in modular capsules-The same vehicles drive onto the ramp and refuel aircraftDedicated onsitebowsers2-LH2 tanker trucks deliver fuel to a storage facility at the airport-LH2 is distributed to aircraft on the ramp by dedicated bows

163、ersHydrant system3-LH2 tanker trucks deliver fuel to a storage facility at the airport-LH2 is distributed to the ramp using underground pipelines,where aircraft are refuelled from hydrantsOnsite liquefaction4-A gaseous hydrogen(GH2)pipeline delivers fuel to the airport,where it is liquefied and stor

164、ed-LH2 is distributed to the ramp via underground pipelines connected to hydrants and/or via capsulesAirportboundaryLiquefactionAircraftLH2truckLH2bowserElectrolysisCapsuletruckPipelineProcessing&storageAs noted in Chapter 1,there are multiple models for delivering hydrogen to an aircraft and these

165、are explored in more detail in Figure 13.All of these are viable and the optimum solution for an individual airport will depend on the nature and extent of its hydrogen-powered aircraft operations.Early adopters will need to have all-in-one trucks ready by around 2025,when these aircraft first begin

166、 to appear.For the vast majority of airports including major regional,small regional and general aviation airports all-in-one trucks should be sufficient to meet the expected demand up until 2050.In the case of some larger airports,dedicated onsite bowsers will also be a viable solution.At intercont

167、inental hubs,a tipping-point will occur in the mid-2040s,making onsite liquefaction and hydrant systems more economically viable,based on flight volume forecasts.These evolving requirements for hydrogen infrastructure will determine what investments are needed.Figure 14 displays the timelines and le

168、vels of investment that will be needed,depending on the airport type.Early investment in trucks to deliver hydrogen to aircraft will be$2-30 million,depending on the size of the airport.However,costs will increase to$670-960 million per year for intercontinental hubs in the event that they add onsit

169、e liquefaction and hydrant systems.It is assumed that there will be a five-year horizon for sourcing,investment and deployment of these systems,re-emphasizing the importance of airports beginning to think now about how to support limited hydrogen operations using all-in-one trucks.There will also be

170、 additional factors that affect the timing of hydrogen infrastructure expansion for different airports based on their unique circumstances.Some of the key items that airports will need to consider include:Operational constraints:Operational factors may have an impact on the timing of investments bey

171、ond the direct financial implications(e.g.switching to hydrants to avoid tarmac congestion).Source:McKinsey&Co.Notes:This list is not exhaustive.Other configurations may make sense depending on circumstance,e.g.onsite electrolysis and liquefaction at low traffic rates for isolated island airports.Ta

172、rget True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight20 Regional variation:The adoption of alternative propulsion technologies is likely to vary significantly by region,especially in earlier years.Access to hydrogen:Airports further from large production facilities,por

173、ts or major pipelines may choose to expand storage and/or build pipelines to ensure consistent supply.Operational simplification:The widespread adoption of hydrogen capsules could eliminate the need for dedicated bowsers or hydrant systems,though this remains to be seen.Geographic isolation:For airp

174、orts in remote locations,onsite production of hydrogen and/or tankering may be more operationally efficient than delivery from a hub.Integration with other projects:Airports may synchronize hydrogen investments with other capital projects(e.g.terminal expansion)to minimize disruptions to normal acti

175、vities.Leapfrogging:Airports that anticipate rapid expansion in hydrogen adoption may choose to skip certain steps to avoid non-incremental investment(e.g.skipping delivery by truck and building a pipeline).Timelines and levels of airport investments in hydrogen infrastructureFIGURE 14Airport infras

176、tructure requirements as a function of hydrogen aircraft adoption1,2Investment horizon5In-service dateMPP Optimistic scenarioMPP Prudent scenarioMajor regional2020202520302035204020452050Capex:$2-17mCapex:$2-10m11221122All-in-one truckAll-in-one truckSmall regionalAll-in-one truck2020202520302035204

177、020452050Capex:$2-3mCapex:$2m1111All-in-one truckIntercontinental hub32020202520302035204020452050Dedicated onsite bowsersCapex:$51-89mDedicated onsite bowsersCapex:$32-49mDedicated onsite bowsersCapex:$34-49mDedicated onsite bowsersCapex:$18-20mOnsite liquefaction and hydrant systemCapex:$2-29mCape

178、x:$670-960m4Capex:$2-20m1122311223/4All-in-one truckAll-in-one truckEarly adopters need to begin building infrastructure 2025;others will follow into early 2030s Notes:1 Other models(e.g.modular capsule hydrogen)could reduce infrastructure complexity;timeline based on average adoption rates of comme

179、rcial and GA aircraft in the MPP scenarios.2 Capex is a function of the infrastructure models described in this document(e.g.all-in-one truck,dedicated onsite bowsers etc.)and does not include broader investments(e.g.electrolysis,battery charging,safety infrastructure etc.).3 Intercontinental hub as

180、sumed to be 10 km from hydrogen production facility;all other airports are assumed to be 100km from a hydrogen production facility.4 Includes$400-700 million in capex for the onsite liquefaction facility(cost per unit production assumed to be same as offsite).5 Investment horizon precedes in-service

181、 date by 5 years,based on conversations with airport operators.Source:McKinsey&Co.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight21Collaboration to deliver alternative propulsion infrastructure3Airports will need to work with their constituents and other green-

182、industry users to deliver the infrastructure required for alternative propulsion.When developing infrastructure for aviation,coordination will be required to ensure it can allow for battery-electric and hydrogen aircraft to operate at multiple airports simultaneously.To develop viable networks,it wi

183、ll be essential to ensure there is infrastructure in place at a sufficient number of airports.This will also allow for any rerouting that may be required,such as during diversions.While large airports will bear the highest costs in the switch to alternative propulsion,initial use cases for alternati

184、ve propulsion will likely be between smaller airports for battery-electric flights or on single point-to-point routes between large and mid-sized airports for aircraft powered by hydrogen.Coordination of investment at smaller airports within smaller geographic regions will therefore be necessary for

185、 the operation of battery-electric aircraft.For hydrogen-powered aircraft,coordination will be needed between large and small airports possibly across multiple national jurisdictions and therefore represents a bigger challenge.To understand the level of coordination that would be needed,under the sc

186、enarios modelled by MPPs Aviation Transition Strategy,hydrogen propulsion is projected to power 24-36%of Amsterdam Schiphol Airports flights by 2050 which equates to about 14-25 routes for a traditional hub.At Singapores Changi Airport,it would be approximately 16-32%of flights,requiring 3-10 routes

187、 to activate a hub.The level of transformation required to transition to alternative propulsion and the level of investment needed mean airports will not be able to undertake this work in isolation.This chapter explores the need for collaboration both within the industry and with other industries.Co

188、ordination within the aviation industry3.1Insight 9:To harness the power of network effects and regional connectivity,coordination of infrastructure investment will be required to make alternative propulsion operations feasible.Examples of the coordinated investment that would be needed to achieve t

189、his already exist for instance,the work being done by the Avinor company that operates most of the civil airports in Norway.20 Replicating this coordination in other parts of the world will require airports,operators and other stakeholders to come together to catalyse action within and across region

190、s.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight22Potential hydrogen aviation network scenarios in 2050FIGURE 15MPP Prudent scenarioMPP Optimistic scenarioHubs will need a network of spokes to operate effectively at scale by 2050To achieve targeted adoption,hu

191、b airports will depend on spoke airports installing their own alternative propulsion infrastructure,to activate their route networksInfrastructure investment must be coordinated regionally to maximize utilization and return on investment New York JFK-21-36%alternative propulsion flights-21-42 routes

192、 to activate hub-24-36%alternative propulsion flights-14-25 routes to activate hub-16-32%alternative propulsion flights-3-10 routes to activate hubSchiphol Airport AMSChangi Airport SINImplications for airportsThe imperative for airports and the aviation industry to collaborate beyond their traditio

193、nal base of partners will prove as important as intra-industry coordination.Given the significant capex investment required(of which around 90%will be for off-airport infrastructure),airports will need to seek out partnerships across the infrastructure value chain to successfully ramp-up alternative

194、 propulsion.Coordination with other industries3.2Insight 10:The aviation industry will need to partner with other industries to secure enough green electricity and hydrogen in a supply-constrained environment and to have a voice in shaping the future of the hydrogen ecosystem.Source:McKinsey&Co.Note

195、:Activating a hub is shown as the number of routes required to meet the MPPs alternative propulsion targets for hydrogen and battery-electric aircraft(based on 2019 flight schedules).Examples of routes are for illustrative purposes only.Airports could do this by exploring partnerships with green ene

196、rgy suppliers for electricity generation and hydrogen production.They could also potentially link up with high-demand hydrogen consumers(e.g.refineries,steel or fertilizer manufacturers),as well as sustainable aviation fuel producers(some of which already consume hydrogen as a feedstock)that could v

197、ertically integrate to provide direct-fuel hydrogen to airports.This approach would not only secure sufficient green energy and hydrogen production to meet airport hydrogen demand during the ramp-up of alternative propulsion technology,it would also enable airports to invest in the development of ef

198、ficient electrolysis and liquefaction technology,with the goal of reducing cost and/or bringing production closer to the airport.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight23Case study:Los Angeles hydrogen ecosystem layoutFIGURE 16Commercial airportsThe are

199、a of Greater Los Angeles is home to multiple H2 initiatives and an ambitious project from SoCalGas to provide access to H2 through the gas pipeline network,channeling in 10-20 GW of electrolysis capacity in the future.Los Angeles International Airport(LAX)Hollywood BurbankLong BeachOntarioJohn Wayne

200、Port facilitiesH2 distributionPort of LAHydrogen fuelling stations(supplied by GH2 delivery)Hydrogen fuelling stations(supplied by LH2 delivery)Long Beach PortUpstream H2 projectsIndustrial H2 usersToyota Tri-Gen2.5 MW Hydrogenics electrolyser projectLinde Green H2 production120 MW Plug Powerelectro

201、lyser project75 MW Fusion Fuel projectUniversal Hydrogen(airplane refitting)Heavy Duty Truck demonstrationIntermountain Power Project(H2 electricity production)FC marine vesseldemonstratorOutside of map areaNot exhaustive11328 kmLong BeachLos Angeles161443526871091423567Palm Springs(100 km)11Fresno(

202、300 km)Bakersfield(230 km)Utah(700 km)12158910111215141316For energy storage,processing and management,airports could partner with equipment manufacturers(e.g.for battery charging,hydrogen storage and handling)and clean hydrogen and ammonia fuel handlers in other transport industries,such as high-vo

203、lume trucking and shipping.Through these partnerships,airports could accelerate and influence the design of airport-specific infrastructure,as well as establish hydrogen-specific fuel consortiums to share the risk and cost of fuel storage and distribution,similar to those that currently operate for

204、jet fuel.For distributing energy to aircraft,partnerships with aircraft OEMs,operators and safety regulators could help airports to understand and influence the development of infrastructure for aircraft charging and fuelling,along with the associated ground equipment.Such partnerships could also he

205、lp airports understand the safety requirements for the operation of alternative propulsion aircraft,in turn informing investment and operational planning decisions.To help with this work,airports can begin to map the local ecosystem of hydrogen and energy projects to identify specific partners.Figur

206、e 16 provides an overview of what this analysis could look like for the city of Los Angeles.Source:McKinsey&Co.,Hydrogen Fuel Cell Partnership,Station Map.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight24ConclusionThe introduction and growth of alternative prop

207、ulsion within the aviation system will require significant changes to current industry value chains,necessitating huge investments in clean energy production,onsite investments in airport infrastructure and collaboration across multiple stakeholders both within and outside the traditional aviation s

208、ector.While the first of these changes will appear on the horizon sooner than some may realize,they present opportunities as well as challenges to airports and the wider sector.The changes resulting from alternative propulsion,while significant,will also be gradual allowing airports and their consti

209、tuents to prepare accordingly.To ensure airports are ready for the changes they will face,they can begin by taking the following priority actions:Assess how alternative propulsion will impact airport operations When will demand for alternative propulsion aviation arrive at my airport?What type(s)of

210、aircraft will I need to accommodate?What is the detailed business case for alternative propulsion at our airport?Identify natural partners in the green energy ecosystem Where can I best acquire green energy?Who can supply it?Which hydrogen-consuming industries near my airport should I partner with t

211、o signal demand to suppliers?Who are the broader set of stakeholders with whom I share an interest?Incorporate alternative propulsion infrastructure into investment and operational planning When do I need to start investing in the energy infrastructure necessary to meet my future needs?What type(s)o

212、f on-airport infrastructure will best meet my anticipated future needs and how will my operations change?Engage regulators to understand and help define future safety requirements What will be the safety requirements for operating and refuelling battery-electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft?While m

213、uch work remains to understand the infrastructure and investment needs on an airport-by-airport basis,this shift represents a generational opportunity to build new,green businesses and define the future of aviation.Target True Zero stands ready to provide a platform for future discussions and to sup

214、port key stakeholders in their efforts to deliver a sustainable aviation sector compatible with its 2050 net-zero goals.Alternative propulsion presents airports with an opportunity to position themselves at the heart of the transition to sustainable aviation.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastru

215、cture for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight25Appendix:Methodology and referencesThis report has been produced using insights developed by McKinsey&Company from workshops and discussions held by the World Economic Forums Target True Zero Coalition with industry experts.Several foundational assumpti

216、ons around energy consumption and investments were used to inform this work,as detailed in Figure 17.Key assumptions of energy consumption and investment modelFIGURE 17Zero-emissions electricity generationProduction efficiencyAverage output as%of peak capacityNot exhaustive$per kW or kWe in 2050(202

217、0 dollars)Capex requiredGreen hydrogen production(electrolysis)Solar photovoltaic$29718%$867Wind onshore30%$2,476Hydro reservoir50%$4,385Nuclear92%$358Small-scale(120 TPD)69%$221Large-scale(5,000 TPD)69%Other key assumptions used to develop this report include the following:Technical improvements in

218、 liquid hydrogen handling are assumed to reduce end-to-end losses to 5%in most cases by 2050.Hydrogen electrolysers are assumed to be 69%efficient in 2050,with a capex of$221-358 per kWe.A 3%p.a.decrease in the cost of liquid hydrogen storage and transportation tanks is assumed as liquid hydrogen te

219、chnology scales,based on expert interviews.The assumption that the primary energy for alternative propulsion aircraft will be generated entirely by renewable and/or zero-emission technologies with a 35/35/20/10 mix of solar,wind,hydro and nuclear,respectively.Turnaround times for hydrogen and batter

220、y-electric aircraft are assumed to be nearly the same as current aircraft,once technology matures and refuelling/recharging procedures become routine by 2050.Airports are assumed to be located 100 km from the nearest major hydrogen production facility.Note:TPD metric tonnes per daySource:McKinsey&Co

221、.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight26ReferencesArgonne National Laboratory,“H 2Airports Workshop Report”,November 2021,https:/www.anl.gov/aet/reference/h 2airports-workshop-report.Aerospace Technology Institute,“Hydrogen Infrastructure and Operatio

222、ns”,March 2022,https:/www.ati.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/FZO-CST-POS-0035-Airports-Airlines-Airspace-Operations-and-Hydrogen-Infrastructure.pdf.Airports Council International and Aerospace Technology Institute,“Integration of Hydrogen Aircraft into the Air Transport System:An Airport Operatio

223、ns and Infrastructure Review”,August 2020,https:/www.ati.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/aci-ati-hydrogen-report-1.pdf.Connected Places Catapult,“Blueprint for Zero Emission Flight Infrastructure”,April 2021,https:/cp.catapult.org.uk/news/blueprint-for-zero-emission-flight-infrastructure.Connected

224、 Places Catapult,“The Roadmap to Zero Emission Flight Infrastructure”,April 2022,https:/cp.catapult.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ZEFI-ROADMAP.pdf.Connected Places Catapult,“Zero Emission Flight Infrastructure White Paper”,February 2021,https:/cp.catapult.org.uk/news/zero-emission-flight-infrast

225、ructure-white-paper.European Climate Foundation,“Hydrogen-Powered Aviation:A Fact-Based Study of Hydrogen Technology,Economics,and Climate Impact by 2050”,May 2020,https:/ Aviation 2022:Regional Prerequisites for Electrical Aviation”,June 2022,https:/www.kvarken.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/FAIR_R

226、egional_Rapport_FINAL-VERSION.pdf.Fuel Cells and Hydrogen 2 Joint Undertaking,“Hydrogen Roadmap Europe:A sustainable pathway for the European energy transition”,2019,https:/data.europa.eu/doi/10.2843/341510.Hileman,James,“Perspectives on Hydrogen for Airports and Aviation Applications”,Federal Aviat

227、ion Administration Office of Environment and Energy,December 2020,https:/www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2020/12/f81/hfto-h2-airports-workshop-2020-hileman.pdf.Hou,Boya,Subhonmesh Bose,Lavanya Marla,and Kiruba Haran,“Impact of Aviation Electrification on Airports:Flight Scheduling and Charging”,http

228、s:/ssrn,com/abstract=4131207.Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&Company,“Hydrogen for Net-Zero:A critical cost-competitive energy vector”,November 2021,https:/ Council,“Roadmap towards zero emissions:BEVs and FCEVs”,September 2021,https:/ Council,McKinsey&Company,“Hydrogen Insights 2021:A perspective on hydr

229、ogen investment,market development and cost competitiveness”,2021,https:/ Energy Agency,“Global Hydrogen Review 2021”,2021,https:/www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2021.International Energy Agency,“The Future of Hydrogen:Seizing Todays Opportunities”,2019,https:/www.iea.org/reports/the-futu

230、re-of-hydrogen.Mission Possible Partnership,“Making Net-Zero Aviation Possible:An industry-backed,1.5C-aligned transition strategy”,July 2022,https:/missionpossiblepartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Making-Net-Zero-Aviation-possible.pdf.Mangold,Jonas,Daniel Silberhorn,Nicolas Moebs,Niclas Dz

231、ikus,Julian Hoelzen,Thomas Zill and Andreas Strohmayer,“Refueling of LH 2 AircraftAssessment of Turnaround Procedures and Aircraft Design Implication”,Energies 2022,15,2475,https:/doi.org/10.3390/en15072475.National Academies of Sciences,Engineering,and Medicine,“Preparing Your Airport for Electric

232、Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies”,2022,https:/doi,org/10.17226/26512.Ong,Sean and Robert Margolis,“Land-Use Requirements for Solar Power Plants in the United States,”June 2013,https:/ analysis was built on a range of additional foundational assumptions from a variety of other reports and reference

233、s listed below:Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight27Salucci,Francesco,Lorenzo Trainelli,Roberto Faranda and Michela Longo,“An optimization Model for Airport Infrastructures in Support to Electric Aircraft”,2019,IEEE Milan PowerTech,2019,pp.1-5,https

234、:/ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8810713.Trainelli,Lorenzo,Francesco Salucci,Carlo E.D.Riboldi,Alberto Rolando and Federico Bigoni,“Optimal Sizing and Operation of Airport Infrastructures in Support of Electric-Powered Aviation”,Aerospace 2021,8,40,https:/doi.org/10.3390/aerospace8020040.United Nation

235、s Economic Commission for Europe,“Technology Brief:Hydrogen”,2021,https:/unece.org/sites/default/files/2021-10/Hydrogen%20brief_EN_final_0.pdf.United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,“Guiding Principles for Climate-Aligned Hydrogen Deployment:Toward Cost-Effective and Equitable Deep De

236、carbonization to Limit Temperature Increases to 1.5C”,2021,https:/racetozero.unfccc.int/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Hydrogen-Guiding-Principles_vFinal.pdf.Warwick,Nicola,Paul Griffiths,James Keeble,Alexander Archibald,John Pyle and Keith Shine,“Atmospheric implications of increased Hydrogen use”,Apri

237、l 2022,UK Government,https:/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067144/atmospheric-implications-of-increased-hydrogen-use.pdf.Washington State Department of Transportation,“Washington Electric Aircraft Feasibility Study”,November 2020,https:/wsdot

238、.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-11/WSDOT-Electric-Aircraft-Feasibility-Study.pdf.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight28ContributorsAcknowledgementsWorld Economic Forum David Hyde Lead,Aerospace and DronesMcKinsey&CompanyRaphael Berz Summer Business

239、AnalystSarina Carter Capabilities and Insights AnalystJonathan Li Business AnalystAdam Mitchell Associate PartnerRobin Riedel PartnerMichael Saposnik Engagement ManagerThe project team highly appreciates contributions and support from the following companies and individuals:Airbus:Glenn LlewellynAir

240、 New Zealand:Jacob SnelgroveAmpaire:Cory Combs,Kevin Noertker,Susan YingAviation Environment Federation:Tim JohnsonBoeing:Dominic Barone,Drake Berglund,Zachary LermanBP:Sven Rieve,EasyJet:Lahiru RanasingheH 2Fly:Josef KalloLinde:Alexander Alekseev,Theresa HuberMcKinsey&Company:Axel Esqu,Guenter Fuch

241、s,Moira Goulmy,Bernd Heid,Julian Hoelzen,Tore Johnston,Patrick Lahaie,Varun Marya,Robert Palter,Shivika Sahdev,Markus WilthanerNASA:Nicholas BorerRolls-Royce Electrical:Stefan BreunigSurf Air Mobility:Ken BielerUniversity of Cambridge:Beth Barker,Paul Hodgson,Rob MillerZeroAvia:Arnab Chatterjee,Alex

242、 Ivanenko,Val MiftakhovEditing&DesignJonathan Walter,EditorStudio Miko,DesignTarget True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight29Endnotes1.Mission Possible Partnership,Making Net-Zero Aviation Possible:An industry-backed,1.5C-aligned transition strategy,July 2022,

243、https:/missionpossiblepartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Making-Net-Zero-Aviation-possible.pdf.2.Lee,David S.et al.,“The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018”,Atmospheric Environment,1 January 2021,https:/ propulsion technologies include hydrogen,

244、battery-electric and hybrid-electric powertrains.These technologies are distinct from sustainable aviation fuel(SAF),which is an alternative fuel,but not a form of alternative propulsion as the propulsion technology itself(the aircraft engine)does not change.4.World Economic Forum,Target True Zero:U

245、nlocking Sustainable Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight,July 2022,https:/www.weforum.org/reports/target-true-zero-unlocking-sustainable-battery-and-hydrogen-powered-flight/.5.Full life-cycle emissions of battery-electric aircraft will depend on the source of the electricity used to charge them.Use

246、of fully renewable energy would reduce these impacts to close to zero,but if electricity is produced from non-renewable sources in some instances impacts could be greater than those of burning jet fuel.Other sources of climate-warming emissions from battery-electric aircraft include those associated

247、 with the manufacture of the batteries themselves.6.As with battery-electric aircraft the full life-cycle impact of hydrogen-powered aircraft will depend on the methods used for producing hydrogen.7.Condensation trails or contrails are created under certain conditions from condensed water vapour rel

248、eased at altitude which forms droplets or crystals around an aerosol particle,such as the soot emitted by burning jet fuel.As contrails are released high up in the atmosphere,they can form clouds that prevent heat from leaving the Earth.It is believed that contrails could at least double the total c

249、limate warming impact of aviation compared to the effect of aircrafts CO2 emissions alone although there remains significant scientific uncertainty about their overall impact.There is even greater uncertainty when it comes to the impacts of contrails from hydrogen-powered aircraft due to their diffe

250、rent composition.For hydrogen fuel cell powered aircraft,if water were to remain as a vapour,hydrogen contrails could form;however,if that water by-product were managed and condensed into liquid form,it may be possible to eliminate these impacts entirely.For hydrogen combustion aircraft,contrails wo

251、uld be more likely to form due to increased water vapour,but it is not known whether their different composition would have a greater or lesser impact than contrails from jet fuel or SAF.Even if the impacts of hydrogen contrails were greater than those produced from flying on jet fuel,there remains

252、the possibility that changes to aircraft operations(such as flying at certain altitudes)could be used to reduce or eliminate contrail formation from both hydrogen and traditional jet fuel aircraft though with the latter this may impose a carbon penalty from flying less direct routes.8.Mission Possib

253、le Partnership,2022.9.Kunzler,J.,“eVTOL Manufacturer Joby Aviation Gears Up For 2024 Launch”,Simple Flying,11 October 2022,https:/ Wire,“Universal Hydrogen Successfully Completes First Flight of Hydrogen Regional Airliner”,2 March 2023,https:/ reveals hydrogen-powered zero-emission engine”,30 Novemb

254、er 2022,https:/ Possible Partnership,2022.13.International Air Transport Association,“Net Zero CO2 Emissions Goal Tops Achievements at 41st ICAO Assembly”,7 October 2022:https:/www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2022-releases/2022-10-07-01/.14.These calculations are generated from the following assumptions:6

255、8,200 to 176,500 wind turbines each producing 10.1 MWh per annum,or one solar farm with an area between 2,783 and 9,556 square miles.Note,the Jiuquan Wind Power Base in Gansu,China has 7,000 wind turbines.Source:Discovery,the Largest Wind Farm in the World.https:/ Airport,Heathrow 2.0:2019 Sustainab

256、ility Progress,2020:https:/ de Paris,Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport:2011 Customer guide,https:/www.parisaeroport.fr/docs/default-source/professionnel-fichiers/services-aux-compagnies-aeriennes/edito_information_paris_cdg.pdf?sfvrsn=2.17.Airports Council International,Global Outlook of Airport Capit

257、al Expenditure,June 2021,https:/store.aci.aero/product/global-outlook-of-airport-capital-expenditure/.18.Woodhouse,S.,“LaGuardias$4 Billion Revamped Terminal Is Finally Opening”,Bloomberg UK,1 June 2022,https:/ top court gives go-ahead to Heathrow expansion”,Reuters,16 December 2020,https:/ Aviation

258、”,https:/avinor.no/en/corporate/klima/electric-aviation/electric-aviation.Target True Zero:Delivering the Infrastructure for Battery and Hydrogen-Powered Flight30World Economic Forum9193 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerland Tel.:+41(0)22 869 1212Fax:+41(0)22 786 2744contactweforum.orgwww.weforum.orgThe World Economic Forum,committed to improving the state of the world,is the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation.The Forum engages the foremost political,business and other leaders of society to shape global,regional and industry agendas.