1、Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-2027S up p orte d b y:www.sola rp owe re urop e.orgFOCU S ON S OU T H EAS T AS I ASteel protected byWith its unique composition and excellent protective performance,Magnelis is the leading galvanised steel for long-lasting solar mounting structures.

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4、been designed in Magnelis and manufactured by CWF Kristof Poggel/CWF GmbH3F o r e wo r d We lc ome to th e G lob a l Ma r k e t Outlook f or S ola r P owe r 2 02 3-2 02 7.S ola r is on th e fa st tra c k.I n 2022,th e world insta lle d 239 GW of ne w sola r,fina lly surp a ssing th e T W-sc a le.T h

5、 a ts 45%more sola r p owe r c a p a c ity th a n th e ye a r b e fore.T h e p ositive ma rke t d e ve lop me nts in th e first month s of 2023 p romise a noth e r sola r b oom ye a r,e xp e c te d to re sult in 341 GW of ne wly-a d d e d sola r to th e grid,b y th e e nd of th e ye a r e qua l to 4

6、3%growth.T h is sola r rush c ome s a fte r more mod e st p rogre ss in p re c e d ing ye a rs,wh ic h we re c h a ra c te rise d b y p a nd e mic trigge re d loc kd owns,sup p ly c h a in turb ule nc e,a nd h igh p rod uc t p ric e s a long th e va lue c h a in.H owe ve r,e ve n in tric kie r time

7、s,th e sola r ind ustry d e monstra te d ve ry strong re silie nc e,with ne wly insta lle d glob a l c a p a c itie s inc re a sing b y 19%in 2020 a nd 18%in 2021.T h e re a sons for th is sp e c ta c ula r p e rforma nc e a re ob vious.I t c ome s d own to th e unma tc h e d ve rsa tility of sola r

8、 p owe ring ind ivid ua l e ne rgy se lf-suffic ie nc y a nd c omp a ra tive ly quic k-d e p loying utility-sc a le p roj e c ts a t c omp e titive low c ost.De sp ite sola rs le ve lise d c ost of e le c tric ity(L COE)slid ing up wa rd s for th e first time d ue to sup p ly c h a in issue s a nd i

9、nfla tion,it re ma ins p rofound ly c h e a p e r to p rod uc e e le c tric ity from sola r th a n from ne w fossil fue l a nd nuc le a r p owe r sourc e s.Wh a t c h a nge d for sola r p owe r in 2022 a nd wh y we c onsid e r th e ye a r a n infle c tion p oint is th e te c h nologys ne wly d isc o

10、ve re d ima ge b y a growing numb e r of p olic yma ke rs.S ola r p owe r now e nj oys wid e sp re a d a c c e p ta nc e a s th e ke y tool to a c h ie ve loc a l e ne rgy se c urity in th e mid te rm.During th e re c e nt fossil fue l sp a rke d e ne rgy c risis,th e I nte rna tiona l Ene rgy Age n

11、c y(I EA)use d two re p orts to h igh ligh t sola rs c ritic a l role to re d uc e th e Europ e a n U nions d e p e nd e nc e on R ussia n ga s.T h e EU S ola r S tra te gy of Ma y 2022 e ve n c a lle d sola r th e kingp in of th e c ontine nts e ffort to ge t off R ussia n ga s.S uc h ge ostra te g

12、ic c onsid e ra tions a re a p p lic a b le for oth e r e ne rgy imp orting c ountrie s a s we ll.I n oth e r word s,sola r h a s now unta ngle d wh a t wa s p re viously c onsid e re d a gord ia n knot th e so-c a lle d e ne rgy trile mma of susta ina b ility,a fford a b ility,a nd se c urity of su

13、p p ly.T h e a nnua l Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook for S ola r P owe r is a p roj e c t th a t c ome s to life with th e sup p ort a nd in-d e p th knowle d ge of th e world s ma j or re giona l a nd loc a l sola r ind ustry a ssoc ia tions.T h e se orga nisa tions a re working h a rd to imp rove th e

14、p olic y fra me works th a t a re e sse ntia l for sola r p owe r to th rive a round th e world.From th e se orga nisa tions,th is re p ort c onta ins in-d e p th fe a ture s on th e 26 c ountrie s th a t a d d e d a t le a st 1 GW of sola r in 2022.T h e re a re nine more GW-sc a le sola r ma rke t

15、s in 2022,c omp a re d to th e 17 in 2021.T h e numb e r of th e world s se rious sola r ma rke ts will more th a n d oub le to ove r 50 b y 2025.T h is e d ition h a s b oth a re giona l a nd a top ic a l foc us th is time on S outh e a st Asia a nd P P As in e me rging ma rke ts.T h e id e a wa s

16、to h igh ligh t a d va nc e s a nd c h a lle nge s in c ountrie s th a t a re ofte n not on th e glob a l sola r ma p.T h e se fe a ture s h a ve b e e n c re a te d in c oop e ra tion b e twe e n S ola rP owe r Europ e,th e Glob a l S ola r Counc il(GS C),th rough its me mb e r,th e Asia n P h otov

17、olta ic I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(AP V I A),a nd GET.inve st.With glob a l sup p ly c h a in issue s la rge ly ove rc ome,a nd giga ntic P V p rod uc tion c a p a c itie s b e ing b uilt up,p ric e s h a ve d rop p e d signific a ntly a c ross th e va lue c h a in in re c e nt month s a nd a re e xp

18、e c te d to d ip b e low p re-p a nd e mic le ve ls soon.T h a t will p rop e l d e ma nd to th e ne xt le ve l.I n ge ne ra l,we a re more c onfid e nt th a n e ve r th a t sola r will re ma in on th e fa st tra c k in th e ye a rs to c ome.H ow fa st will d e p e nd on th e re gula tory e nvironme

19、 nt ne e d e d to e na b le th a t growth from simp le r p e rmitting a nd stronge r grid c a p a c itie s,to sup p orte d sola r-stora ge h yb rid solutions.O ur 2023 H igh S c e na rio fore se e s 402 GW ne w sola r th is ye a r a nd c lose to 800 GW in 2027.H a ving a c h ie ve d ove r 1 T W of t

20、ota l sola r c a p a c ity in 2022,we now se e th e p ote ntia l for a n a nnua l T W-sc a le ma rke t b y 2030.Enj oy re a d ing our Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook.WAL BU R G A H E ME T S BE R G E R CEO,S ola rP owe r Europ eMI CH AE L S CH ME L A Exe c utive Ad visor a nd Dire c tor of Ma rke t I nte l

21、lige nc e,S ola rP owe r Europ eT H E R E S A CR U Z-CAP E L L AN S e c re ta ry-Ge ne ra l,Asia P V I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(AP V I A)&Me mb e r of th e Glob a l S ola r Counc ilGlob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-20274P r o j e c t L e a d:Mic h a e l S c h me la,S ola rP owe r Euro

22、p e.P r o j e c t ma n a g e r:R a ffa e le R ossi,S ola rP owe r Europ e.Ma r k e t i n te l l i g e n c e a n d i n te r n a l c o-a utho r s:Mic h a e l S c h me la,R a ffa e le R ossi,Ch ristop h e L its,J ona th a n Gorre ma ns&Antonio Arrue b o,S ola rP owe r Europ e.E xte r n a l c o-a utho r

23、 s:Asia n P h otovolta ic I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(AP V I A);S te ve Blume,S ma rt Ene rgy Counc il(S EC);L isa Grn,Bund e sve rb a nd P h otovolta ic Austria (P V Austria);R od rigo L op e s S a ua ia&R a fa e l Fra nc isc o Ma rque s,Bra zilia n P h otovolta ic S ola r Ene rgy Assoc ia tion(ABS O

24、L AR);Da vid R a u,Ch ile a n S ola r Assoc ia tion(ACES O L);Ch ina P h otovolta ic I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(CP I A);T h oma s Aa re strup J e p se n,Gre e n P owe r De nma rk;Fle mming K riste nse n,Da nish P V Assoc ia tion;Ma rie Buc h e t,S ynd ic a t d e s Ene rgie s R e nouve la b le s(S ER);

25、Ale xa nd e r R oh lf&Ch ristia n Me nke,Bund e sve rb a nd S ola rwirtsc h a ft(BS W-S ola r);S te lios P soma s,H e lle nic Assoc ia tion of P h otovolta ic Comp a nie s(H EL AP CO);d m S zolnoki,H unga ria n P h otovolta ic I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(MAN AP);S ub ra h ma nya m P ulip a ka,S h ub h

26、a ng P a re kh&Animish a V e rma,N a tiona l S ola r Ene rgy Fe d e ra tion of I nd ia (N S EFI);Eita n P a rna ss,Gre e n Ene rgy Assoc ia tion of I sra e l(GEA-I L);Mic h e la nge lo L a fronza,AN I E R innova b ili;Ale ssa nd ro S c ip ioni&Ed oa rd o S torti,Ele ttric it Futura;Fe d e ric o Bruc

27、 c ia ni,I ta lia S ola re;T a ke a ki Ma suka wa,J a p a n P h otovolta ic Ene rgy Assoc ia tion(J P EA);Ca rla Me d ina P e re zgome z,Me xic a n Assoc ia tion of S ola r Ene rgy(Asolme x);Wij na nd va n H ooff,N old J a e ge r&Ma rinth e Bos,H olla nd S ola r;Fa h e e m Ash ra f,Wa qa s Moosa&Fa

28、isa l J a ma l,P a kista n S ola r Assoc ia tion(P S A);P a ulina Woj c ie c h owska,P olskie S towa rzysze nie Fotowolta iki(P S F)&S ta nisla w M.P ie truszko,P olskie T owa rzystwo Fotowolta iki(P V P ola nd);De We t T a lj a a rd,S outh Afric a n P V I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(S AP V I A);Woo-S ik

29、 J ung,K ore a P h otovolta ic I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(K O P I A);J os Donoso,U nin Esp a ola Fotovolta ic a (U N EF);Da vid S tic ke lb e rge r,S wissola r;S h uY u Y a ng,I nd ustry,S c ie nc e a nd T e c h nology I nte rna tiona l S tra te gy Ce nte r(I S T I)&I nd ustria l T e c h nic a l R e s

30、e a rc h I nstitute (I T R I)&Da nie l L e e,T a iwa n P h otovolta ic I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(T P V I A);T urkish S ola r Ene rgy Assoc ia tion(GN DER);Ga re th S imkins,S ola r Ene rgy U K;S ola r Ene rgy I nd ustrie s Assoc ia tion(S EI A).E xte r n a l c o n tr i b uto r s:CADER (AR),AP S T E(B

31、G),Ca nR EA(CA),OI E(H R),S olrn Asoc ia c e (CZ),I S EA(I E),K R EA(K E),L S EA(L T),I L R (L U),MP I A(MY),R EI AoN (N A),S ole ne rgiklynge n(N O),AP R EN (P T),R P I A(R O),S ER I S (S G),S AP I (S K),Z S FV (S I),S ve nsk S ole ne rgi(S E),EV N P ECC3(V N).T e xt e d i ti n g:Be th a ny Me b a

32、n,T h rse O Donogh ue,&L ily Murd oc h,S ola rP owe r Europ e.S up p o r te d b y:I nte rsola r Europ e,Glob a l S ola r Counc il(GS C).P l e a s e c i te a s:S ola rP owe r Europ e (2023):Gl o bal Mar ket Ou t l o o k fo r So l ar Po wer 20 23-20 27.F o r me d i a us e a n d q ue r i e s:Be th a ny

33、 Me b a n,S ola rP owe r Europ e,b.me b a nsola rp owe urop e.org.D a te o f p ub l i c a ti o n:J une 2023.I S BN:9789464669046.T ha n k s to o ur s p o n s e r me mb e r s:D e s i g n:One h e misp h e re AB,S we d e n.c onta c tone h e misp h e re.se F r o n t c o ve r i ma g e:R a kc h a i Dua ng

34、d e e/S h utte rstoc k.c om Co n ta c t:infosola rp owe re urop e.org.Me tho d o l o g y:S ola rP owe r Europ e s five-ye a r fore c a st c onsists of L ow,Me d ium a nd H igh S c e na rios.T h e Me d ium sc e na rio a ntic ip a te s th e most like ly d e ve lop me nt give n th e c urre nt sta te of

35、 p la y of th e ma rke t.T h e L ow S c e na rio fore c a st is b a se d on th e a ssump tion th a t p olic yma ke rs h a lt sola r sup p ort a nd oth e r issue s a rise,inc lud ing inte re st ra te h ike s a nd se ve re fina nc ia l c risis situa tions.Conve rse ly,th e H igh S c e na rio fore c a

36、sts th e b e st op tima l c a se in wh ic h p olic y sup p ort,fina nc ia l c ond itions a nd oth e r fa c tors a re e nh a nc e d.S e gme nta tion is b a se d on th e following syste m size:R e sid e ntia l(10 kW);Comme rc ia l(250 kW);I nd ustria l(1000 kW,ground-mounte d).S ola rP owe r Europ e s

37、 me th od ology inc lud e s only grid-c onne c te d syste ms.I nsta lle d c a p a c ity is a lwa ys e xp re sse d in DC,unle ss oth e rwise sta te d.All figure s a re b a se d on S ola rP owe r Europ e s b e st knowle d ge a t th e time of p ub lic a tion.D i s c l a i me r:T h is re p ort h a s b e

38、 e n p re p a re d b y S ola rP owe r Europ e.I t is b e ing furnish e d to th e re c ip ie nts for ge ne ra l informa tion only.N oth ing in it sh ould b e inte rp re te d a s a n offe r or re c omme nd a tion of a ny p rod uc ts,se rvic e s or fina nc ia l p rod uc ts.T h is re p ort d oe s not c

39、onstitute te c h nic a l,inve stme nt,le ga l,ta x or a ny oth e r a d vic e.R e c ip ie nts sh ould c onsult with th e ir own te c h nic a l,fina nc ia l,le ga l,ta x or oth e r a d visors a s ne e d e d.T h is re p ort is b a se d on sourc e s b e lie ve d to b e a c c ura te.H owe ve r,S ola rP o

40、we r Europ e d oe s not wa rra nt th e a c c ura c y or c omp le te ne ss of a ny informa tion c onta ine d in th is re p ort.S ola rP owe r Europ e a ssume s no ob liga tion to up d a te a ny informa tion c onta ine d h e re in.S ola rP owe r Europ e will not b e h e ld lia b le for a ny d ire c t

41、or ind ire c t d a ma ge inc urre d b y th e use of th e informa tion p rovid e d a nd will not p rovid e a ny ind e mnitie s.U nle ss oth e rwise sta te d,th e c op yrigh t a nd oth e r inte lle c tua l p rop e rty righ ts of ma rke t inte llige nc e d a ta a nd re sourc e s p rovid e d a re owne d

42、 b y S ola rP owe r Europ e.S ola rP owe r Europ e h a s c olla b ora te d with e xte rna l c o-a uth ors to c ontrib ute to sp e c ific c h a p te rs to th is re p ort;S ola rP owe r Europ e c a nnot b e h e ld re sp onsib le for th e c onte nt a nd op inions e xp re sse d in th ose c h a p te rs.T

43、 h e e xte rna l c o-a uth ors h a ve b e e n give n th e fre e d om to p re se nt th e ir vie ws,a na lysis,a nd re c omme nd a tions b a se d on th e ir ind ivid ua l e xp e rtise a nd p e rsp e c tive s.T h e se c ontrib utions re fle c t th e ir own op inions a nd migh t d e via te from S ola rP

44、 owe r Europ e s a na lysis.S ola rP owe r Europ e h a s ma d e e fforts to e nsure th e a c c ura c y,c omp le te ne ss,a nd re le va nc e of th e informa tion p re se nte d in th is re p ort.H owe ve r,it is imp orta nt to re c ognise th a t th e c h a p te rs a uth ore d b y e xte rna l c o-a uth

45、 ors a re th e ir sole re sp onsib ility,a nd S ola rP owe r Europ e d oe s not e nd orse or a ssume lia b ility for a ny ina c c ura c ie s,e rrors,or omissions with in th ose sp e c ific se c tions.”T a b l e o f c o n te n tsF o r e wo r d 3E xe c uti ve s umma r y6 1 Gl o b a l s o l a r ma r k

46、e t8 U pd a te 2 000-2 02 213 P r ospe c ts 2 02 3 -2 02 72 6 S e gme n ts 2 02 3 -2 02 73 7 Con c lusi on s3 9 2 F o c us:T he S o uthe a s t As i a n S o l a r Ma r k e t b y GS C 42 3 Co r p o r a te P P As i n e me r g i n g ma r k e ts S up p o r te d b y G E T.i n ve s t53 4 GW-s c a l e ma r

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48、optimize your solar assets.Solar Asset Operations&ManagementSolar Project DevelopmentEnergy Market ParticipationReal-time,weather-adjusted PV production estimates are critical for optimizing solar asset performance.O&M teams can streamline their processes and reduce costs by integrating these inputs

49、 into their applications using an enterprise-class solar API,which features:Take advantage of the reliability,accessibility and accuracy offered by the SolarAnywhere API.Get started at: operational excellence with an enterprise-class solar API Highly-accurate,globallyavailable historical,real-time a

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51、irementsGlob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-20276E xe c uti ve s umma r y2 02 2 wi ll b e r e me mb e r e d a s th e ye a r wh e n sola r d e ployme n t,d r i ve n b y soa r i n g e n e r gy pr i c e s,supply c h a i n sta b i li sa ti on,a n d post-pa n d e mi c r e c ove r y pr ogr

52、a ms,e n te r e d a n e w gr owth d i me n si on.I n 2 02 2 th e wor ld c on n e c te d 2 3 9 G W of n e w sola r c a pa c i ty to th e gr i d,ma r k i n g ye t a n oth e r a ll-ti me r e c or d a n d r e gi ste r i n g a n i mpr e ssi ve 4 5%a n n ua l gr owth r a te,th e h i gh e st si n c e 2 016

53、.As a c on se q ue n c e,tota l glob a l i n sta lle d sola r c a pa c i ty c r osse d th e T e r a wa tt th r e sh old i n e a r ly 2 02 2 a n d a moun te d to a lmost 1.2 T W b y th e e n d of th e ye a r,wi th a 2 5%i n c r e a se c ompa r e d to 2 02 1 le ve ls.S ola rs e xp a nsion h a s no ma

54、tc h a c ross oth e r p owe r ge ne ra tion te c h nologie s.S ola r P V c la ime d two-th ird s of a ll ne w re ne wa b le p owe r c a p a c ity insta lle d la st ye a r,a nd th e h igh e st growth ra te in te rms of e le c tric ity ge ne ra tion a c ross a ny p owe r ge ne ra tion te c h nology(24

55、%).At th e sa me time,h owe ve r,sola r still only me e ts 4.5%of glob a l e le c tric ity d e ma nd,wh ile ove r 70%is p rovid e d b y non-re ne wa b le sourc e s.I n 2022,signific a nt sup p ly c h a in d isturb a nc e s,linge ring CO V I D-19 e ffe c ts,a nd infla tiona ry p re ssure,sp a rke d b

56、 y th e wa r in U kra ine,c a use d th e first inc re a se in sola rs le ve lise d c ost of e le c tric ity(L COE)in ove r a d e c a d e.T h a t,h owe ve r,d oe s not p ose a c h a lle nge to c ost c omp e titive ne ss;sola r P V re ma ins signific a ntly c h e a p e r th a n ne w fossil fue ls a nd

57、 nuc le a r,a nd p rod uc t p ric e s a lre a d y b e ga n to d e c line in re c e nt month s a nd a re la rge ly e xp e c te d to re turn to p re-c risis le ve ls soon.R e c ord insta lla tions in 2022 we re d rive n b y a re ma rka b le p e rforma nc e in Ch ina,th e und isp ute d world-le a d ing

58、 sola r ma rke t,with a lmost 100 GW a d d e d in a single ye a r a nd a h uge 72%a nnua l growth ra te.T h e U S e xp e rie nc e d a turb ule nt ye a r in 2022,b ut ke p t its sp ot a s th e se c ond la rge st ma rke t d e sp ite a 6%a nnua l d e c re a se to 21.9 GW,wh ile I nd ia s re b ound c on

59、tinue d in 2022,with 17.4 GW of ne w insta lle d c a p a c ity a nd a 23%growth.Closing th e 2022 top 5 c ountrie s,Bra zil d oub le d its insta lla tion ra te with 10.9 GW,wh ile S p a in b e c a me th e la rge st Europ e a n ma rke t with 8.4 GW.At th e re giona l le ve l,Ch ina s d omina nc e inc

60、 re a se d th e Asia-P a c ific sh a re to 60%,wh ile Europ e re ma ine d sta b le a t 19%a nd th e Ame ric a s d e c line d to 17%.I n te rms of insta lle d sola r c a p a c ity p e r c a p ita,Austra lia re ma ins in th e le a d with a lmost 1.2 kW/c a p ita,wh ile th e N e th e rla nd s a lso c r

61、osse d th e kW/c a p ita th re sh old,c omp a re d to a glob a l a ve ra ge of a n e stima te d 144 W/c a p ita.All sola r a na lysts a re c onfid e nt th a t,following a n e xc e p tiona l 2022,th e re is no que stion th a t strong growth will c ontinue in 2023 th e que stion is ra th e r h ow muc

62、h.O ur Me d ium S c e na rio a ntic ip a te s th a t 341 GW of ne w sola r c a p a c ity will b e insta lle d world wid e in 2023,e quiva le nt to a 43%growth th a t b a sic a lly re p e a ts th e e xtra ord ina ry p e rforma nc e of 2022.With imp rove d ma rke t c ond itions,h owe ve r,insta lla ti

63、ons c ould go a b ove 400 GW a lre a d y in 2023.S ola r d e p loyme nt is e xp e c te d to c ontinue in th e following four ye a rs,with 401 GW a d d e d in 2024 a nd a 617 GW ma rke t re a c h e d in 2027.T h is will b ring tota l op e ra ting c a p a c itie s a b ove 2 T W in e a rly 2025 a nd 3.

64、5 T W b y th e e nd of 2027.T h e strong e xp a nsion of 2022 d e live re d a re c ord numb e r of la rge ly d e ve lop e d sola r ma rke ts.T h e numb e r of GW-sc a le sola r ma rke ts c ountrie s insta lling a t le a st 1 GW j ump e d from 17 in 2021 to 26 in 2022.We fore c a st 32 GW-sc a le ma

65、rke ts in 2023,39 in 2024,a nd a t le a st 53 in 2025.T h is ye a rs re giona l foc us is on S outh e a st Asia.With th e sup p ort of th e Glob a l S ola r Counc il(GS C),we h a ve p rovid e d a n in-d e p th a na lysis of P V d e p loyme nt in th e re gion,wh ic h h old s signific a nt sola r p ot

66、e ntia l.We e xp e c t th e re giona l ma rke t to grow to 3.8 GW th is ye a r,up 13%from 2022,a nd e xp a nd to 13.3 GW b y 2027 und e r a Me d ium S c e na rio.Anoth e r fe a ture is on c orp ora te P P As in e me rging c ountrie s,e xa mining th e d rive rs a nd c h a lle nge s c orp ora te s fa

67、c e in S ub-S a h a ra n Afric a a nd S outh-Ea st Asia.T h e re a re a fe w p romising initia tive s for c orp ora te sola r P P As,b ut in most c ountrie s p olic y fra me works ne e d to b e e sta b lish e d to ta p th e giga ntic p ote ntia l of b ila te ra l sola r p owe r p urc h a se a gre e

68、me nts.JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECkWh/mAverageIndividual yearsSOLARGIS EVALUATEAnalyze the 昀nancial performance of your solar projectTime Series dataTypical Meteorological YearSolargis Time Series data,by default coming in 15-or 10-minute resolution,are useful for analyzing year-to-year var

69、iability,seasonal or intraday pro昀les,and calculating energy estimates for P50,P90,or other probabilistic scenarios.Our Typical Meteorological Year(TMY)data are generated from multi-year time series data and can come in P50,P90,or other probabilistic scenarios.They are fully compatible with commonly

70、 used PV simulation uncertainty Solargis have been recognized by numerous independent validation studies as the leading reliable source for modeled solar and meteorological data.This will make you a trusted partner.1-minute dataHigh-frequency data based on our stochastic models improve the represent

71、ation of extreme weather situations and energy modeling accuracy,especially when modeling inverter clipping losses,self-consumption,and nearshading losses.Global coverage A long historical archive of solar radiation data(since 1994 for some regions)is available for locations between 65N and 55S lati

72、tudes.The Solargis database has been validated at 230+public locations globally.All solar energy-affecting parameters Besides solar radiation,Solargis datasets also includeparameters such as albedo,temperature,wind,humidity,precipitation and many more to obtain a reliable estimate of all losses invo

73、lved in the energy calculation chain.Solargis Evaluate compresses more than 20 years of experience and knowledgeinto a solution that will help you 昀nd the best cost/bene昀t solution,optimize yourtechnical design setups,and mitigate potential risks of your solar project.Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S

74、 ola r P owe r 2023-20278G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t150 MW H yb rid p la nt,El And va lo,S p a in.I b e rd rolaS ola r powe r c on ti n ue d to d omi n a te th e n e wly a d d e d glob a l powe r ge n e r a ti on c a pa c i ty i n 2 02 2,c la i mi n g ye t a n oth e r ye a r a t th e top spot a

75、 mon g r e n e wa b le e n e r gy sour c e s.Out of 3 6 2 G W of n e w r e n e wa b le (R E S)c a pa c i ty a d d e d la st ye a r,sola r P V a c c oun te d f or 6 6%,c on n e c ti n g 2 3 9 G W to th e gr i d (se e F i g.1).S ola r s sh a r e of n e w r e n e wa b le c a pa c i ty i n c r e a se d

76、sub sta n ti a lly f r om th e 5 6%c on tr i b ute d i n 2 02 1.T h i s h i gh li gh ts th e gr owi n g pr omi n e n c e of sola r i n th e glob a l e n e r gy tr a n si ti on,i n sta lli n g a b out two ti me s th e c a pa c i ty th a n a ll oth e r r e n e wa b le te c h n ologi e s c omb i n e d.

77、F I GUR E 1 NET R ENEWABL E P OWER GENER AT I NG CAP ACI T Y I NS T AL L ED I N 2022Other RE:8 GW;2%Hydro:30 GW;8%Biomass:8 GW;2%2022Wind:78 GW;22%Solar:239 GW;66%362 GWS OU R CES:GWEC(2023),I R EN A(2023).S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-20279T h e ove

78、 ra ll tre nd for re ne wa b le c a p a c ity a d d itions h a s b e e n c onsiste ntly up wa rd in re c e nt ye a rs,p ush e d b y th e glob a l e ne rgy c risis a nd p olic y sup p ort.T ota l re ne wa b le c a p a c ity a d d itions a re 56 GW h igh e r th a n la st ye a r,a n 18%inc re a se from

79、 306 GW in 2021.T h e surge of sola r P V in 2022 h a s more th a n c ove re d th e d e c re a se in wind a nnua l insta lla tions,d rop p ing from 95.3 GW in 2020,to 93.6 in 2021,d own to 77.6 GW in 2022.H owe ve r,it is imp orta nt to ke e p th e se p ositive d e ve lop me nts in p e rsp e c tive.

80、S ola r p owe r still c ontrib ute s a minor sh a re of tota l e le c tric ity d e ma nd,a c c ounting for only 4.5%of glob a l p owe r p rod uc tion in 2022,inc re a sing from 3.7%in th e p re vious ye a r(se e Fig.2).T h ough still re la tive ly sma ll,we ob se rve a c le a r growth a c c e le ra

81、tion sola rs sh a re inc re a se d b y 0.8 p e rc e nta ge p oints or 22%in 2022,c omp a re d to 0.5 p e rc e nta ge p oints or 16%in 2021.T h is is muc h fa ste r th a n th e growth of oth e r re ne wa b le sourc e s,wh ic h c olle c tive ly p rovid e d a round 25.4%of th e world s p owe r ge ne ra

82、 tion,re p re se nting a b out 3%growth from th e 24.6%sh a re in 2021.N on-re ne wa b le sourc e s ma inta ine d th e ir d omina nt p osition with a 70.1%sh a re.N e ve rth e le ss,th e ir sh a re d e c re a se d b y 1.6 p e rc e nta ge p oints in 2022,a nd is a t a n a ll-time low.F I GUR E 2 S OL

83、 AR AND R ENEWABL E P OWER AS A S HAR E OF GL OBAL P OWER 2017-20220102030405060708090100%202220172018201920202021Other RE powerNon-RE powerSolar power75.1%74.5%73.4%71.5%71.6%70.1%1.8%23.3%23.9%25.2%24.6%25.4%23.1%2.2%2.7%3.2%3.7%4.5%S OU R CE:Emb e r(2023).S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20231 G l o b a

84、l s o l a r ma r k e t/c ontinue dGlob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-2027103).Wind is th e se c ond fa ste st growing te c h nology wh e n it c ome s to glob a l p owe r ge ne ra tion,with a 16%growth ra te.I n th e me a ntime,e le c tric ity ge ne ra te d b y c oa l,th e d irtie st

85、sourc e of p owe r ge ne ra tion,gre w b y 1%,wh ile ga s-p owe re d e le c tric ity ma rgina lly d e c line d,a nd nuc le a r e le c tric ity d e c re a se d b y 5%.T h e imme nse ma rke t p ote ntia l of sola r a nd its c ost le a d e rsh ip ind ic a te th a t it will c ontinue to c a p ture a la

86、rge r sh a re th a n a ny oth e r p owe r ge ne ra tion te c h nology a nd furth e r le a d th e glob a l e ne rgy tra nsition.As th e sp e a rh e a d of th e move me nt to re ne wa b le s,sola r ge ne ra te d 1,289 T Wh in 2022,up 24%from th e 1,040 T Wh it ge ne ra te d in 2021(se e Fig.F I GUR E

87、3 EL ECT R I CI T Y GENER AT I ON GR OWT H R AT E FR OM 2021 T O 2022,BY T ECHNOL OGY NuclearGasBioenergyCoalHydroOther renewablesOther fossilWindSolar%0-551015202524%16%12%5%2%1%1%-0.3%-5%S OU R CE:Emb e r(2023).S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202711S

88、 ola rs e xc e p tiona l suc c e ss c a n b e a ttrib ute d to va rious fa c tors,b ut a ke y d rive r is its signific a nt c ost re d uc tion ove r th e p a st d e c a d e,p rop e lling it to b e c ome th e glob a l le a d e r in te rms of c ost c omp e titive ne ss(Fig.4).H owe ve r,th e p a st tw

89、o ye a rs h a ve witne sse d signific a nt d isrup tions in glob a l sup p ly c h a ins,c a using signific a nt p ric e inc re a se s.L inge ring e ffe c ts from th e COV I D-19 p a nd e mic a nd th e la st loc kd own in S h a ngh a i in 2022 h a ve le d to inc re a se d sh ip p ing c osts,wh ile th

90、 e wa r in U kra ine h a s sp a rke d infla tiona ry p re ssure world wid e.S p e c ific a lly in th e sola r ind ustry,th e p ric e of p olysilic on h a d b e e n on a n up wa rd tra j e c tory for th e p a st two ye a rs,p e a king a t a round 38 U S D/kg in De c e mb e r 2022,c omp a re d to j us

91、t b e low 10 U S D/kg in e a rly 2021,a c c ord ing to Bloomb e rgBN EF,wh ile oth e r p rod uc t p ric e s a long th e va lue c h a in soa re d a s we ll.All th is h a s re sulte d in th e first inc re a se in sola r P V s L e ve lise d Cost of Ele c tric ity(L COE)a fte r a d e c a d e of uninte r

92、rup te d d e c line,rising from 36 U S D/MWh in 2021 to 60 U S D/MWh in 2023,th e sh a rp e st inc re a se a mong a ll p owe r te c h nologie s.1 De sp ite th is inc re a se,sola r p owe r re ma ine d signific a ntly c h e a p e r th a n a ny fossil fue ls a nd nuc le a r,c onsid e ring th e ove ra

93、ll rise in te c h nology p ric e s.Wh ile sola r p owe r h a d b e c ome c h e a p e r th a n wind p owe r in 2021,th e re la tionsh ip h a s re ve rse d in 2023.H owe ve r,with th e signific a nt inc re a se in p rod uc tion c a p a c ity a nd th e imp rove me nt of glob a l sup p ly c h a ins,p ri

94、c e s for sola r p rod uc ts h a ve d e c re a se d c onsid e ra b ly a long th e va lue c h a in,from silic on to mod ule s in re c e nt month s a nd a re a ntic ip a te d to re a c h p re-c risis le ve ls th is ye a r.F I GUR E 4 S OL AR EL ECT R I CI T Y GENER AT I ON COS T I N COMP AR I S ON WI

95、T H OT HER P OWER S OUR CES 2009-2023050100150200250300USD/MWh6050701171802009 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019 2020 20212023CCGTSolarWindCoalNuclearS OU R CE:L a za rd (2023).H istoric a l me a n unsub sid ise d L COE va lue s(nomina l te rms,p ost-ta x).S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20231L a za

96、 rd (2023):2023 L e ve lise d Cost of Ene rgy.Ava ila b le a t h ttp s:/www.la za rd.c om/re se a rc h-insigh ts/2023-le ve lize d-c ost-of-e ne rgyp lus/1 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-2022Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202712R e ga rd le ss of th e re c e nt

97、sola r p owe r p ric e inc re a se,utility-sc a le sola r p owe r re ma ins more a fford a b le th a n ne wly e sta b lish e d c onve ntiona l p owe r ge ne ra tion sourc e s(Fig.5).Ad d itiona lly,th e c ost-c omp e titive ne ss of c omb ining sola r p owe r with stora ge,in c omp a rison to using

98、ga s turb ine s to me e t p e a k d e ma nd,is unque stiona b le.T h is c a n b e se e n in a n inc re a sing numb e r of c ountrie s world wid e se tting h yb rid re ne wa b le a uc tions.S uc h a uc tions involve th e c o-loc a tion of d iffe re nt re ne wa b le e ne rgy sourc e s a longsid e b a

99、tte ry stora ge,offe ring a fle xib le a nd ve rsa tile solution to me e t e ne rgy re quire me nts.F I GUR E 5 S OL AR EL ECT R I CI T Y GENER AT I ON COS T I N COMP AR I S ON WI T H CONV ENT I ONAL P OWER S OUR CES 2023 050100150200250300 LCOE(USD/MWh)ResidentialPVC&IPVUtility-scalePVCCGTCoalNucle

100、arUtility-scalePV+storageGas peakerS OU R CE:L a za rd (2023).N omina l te rms,p ost-ta x.S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202713U P D AT E 2 000-2 02 2 I n 2022,th e world grid-c onne c te d 239 GW of ne w sola r c a p a c ity,ma rking a sub sta ntia l

101、 growth of 45%c omp a re d to th e p re vious ye a rs a d d ition of 165 GW(re fe r to Fig.6).T h is surge in sola r c a p a c ity c a n b e a ttrib ute d to a c omb ina tion of fa c tors,inc lud ing th e sta b ilisa tion of sup p ly c h a ins a s th e world re c ove re d from COV I D-19,ne w ma nuf

102、a c turing c a p a c itie s c oming online,a nd th e ma ny p ost-p a nd e mic e c onomic re c ove ry p rogra ms imp le me nte d world wid e.H owe ve r,th e und isp ute d ma in d rive r wa s th e glob a l e ne rgy c risis th a t le d to soa ring e le c tric ity p ric e s.I n re sp onse to th a t c h

103、a lle nge,ma ny ind ivid ua ls a nd e ntitie s turne d to sola r p owe r a s a via b le solution to me e t th e ir e ne rgy ne e d s.T h e c omb ina tion of th e se p ositive fa c tors b rough t th e b e st ye a r-on-ye a r growth ra te sinc e 2016,wh e n th e glob a l ma rke t wa s we ll b e low 10

104、0 GW.I n our p re vious e d ition,we h a d p roj e c te d a glob a l se c tor growth of 229 GW in our Me d ium S c e na rio,e xp e c ting a 36%ye a r-on-ye a r inc re a se in th e ma rke t.T h is op timistic outlook wa s b a se d on th e a ntic ip a tion of sola rs strong p e rforma nc e th rough ou

105、t th e e c onomic re c ove ry a nd th e fa c t th a t ma ny p roj e c ts d ue to b e c ommissione d in 2021 we re d e la ye d to 2022 a s a c onse que nc e of CO V I D-19.T h e a c tua l figure of 239 GW is a little a b ove la st ye a rs p re d ic tion,ind ic a ting th a t our fore c a st,wh ic h mi

106、gh t h a ve b e e n c onsid e re d b uoya nt one ye a r a go,wa s in fa c t too c onse rva tive.I t is note worth y,h owe ve r,th a t th is h igh e r insta lla tion c a p a c ity wa s in th e ra nge of la st ye a rs H igh S c e na rio of 271 GW.Ch ina,th e und isp ute d world s la rge st sola r ma r

107、ke t,e nte re d a ne w d ime nsion with a n a nnua l ma rke t c lose to 100 GW a 72%growth ra te from th e 54.9 GW insta lle d in 2021,wh ic h wa s a lre a d y a n a ll-time h igh.More ove r,p ositive d yna mic s we re ob se rve d in nume rous sola r ma rke ts a c ross th e glob e,with nota b le p r

108、ogre ss se e n in Europ e,Bra zil,a nd I nd ia.F I GUR E 6 ANNU AL S OL AR P V I NS T AL L ED CAP ACI T Y 2000-20220GWEuropeAMERAPACChinaMEA2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202219%18%23945%50100150200250300 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20231 G l o b

109、 a l s o l a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-2022/c ontinue dGlob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202714T OP 10 G lob a l S ola r Ma r k e ts T h e ma j ority of th e top 10 sola r ma rke ts in 2022 re ta ine d th e ir p ositions from th e p re vious ye a r,a lth ough th e re we re signif

110、ic a nt sh ifts in ra nkings a nd some ne wc ome rs d ue to va rying growth d yna mic s(se e Fig.7).Ch i n a d oub le d-d own on its p osition a s th e ma rke t le a d e r in 2022,insta lling more th a n four time s a s muc h sola r P V c a p a c ity a s th e se c ond-la rge st ma rke t,th e U nite

111、d S ta te s.Ch ina s a d d itions in 2022 a c tua lly surp a sse d th e c omb ine d c a p a c ity a d d e d b y th e oth e r top 9 ma rke ts.T h e Ch ine se ma rke t c ontinue d its strong growth -sinc e th e slowd own it e xp e rie nc e d in 2019 with 30 GW-,with insta lla tions b ounc ing b a c k

112、to 48.2 GW in 2020(60%a nnua l growth),54.9 GW in 2021(14%),a nd a sta gge ring 94.7 GW(72%)in 2022.Wh ile insta lla tions in 2021 we re sligh tly a b ove th e p re vious 2017 re c ord of 52.8 GW,2022 ma rks a d istinc t ne w growth p h a se.S ola rs c omp e titive ne ss in b oth utility-sc a le a n

113、d d istrib ute d sola r a p p lic a tions a nd a n inc re a sing a wa re ne ss for th e a ttra c tive ne ss of sola r p owe r a re d riving d e ma nd in th e world s se c ond la rge st e c onomy.T h e Ch ine se rooftop se gme nt d rive n b oth b y re sid e ntia l a nd C&I,h a d a 54%ma rke t sh a re

114、 in 2022,c ontinuing its d omina nc e from 2021,wh e n it c ontrib ute d 53%to ne wly insta lle d c a p a c ity.I n 2022,Ch ina a lso re a c h e d a signific a nt mile stone b y surp a ssing th e 400 GW ma rk in tota l sola r insta lla tions,d e sp ite only surp a ssing th e 300 GW ma rk b y a sma l

115、l ma rgin one ye a r e a rlie r.T h e U n i te d S ta te s sola r ma rke t e xp e rie nc e d a turb ule nt ye a r in 2022,b ut ke p t its sp ot a s th e se c ond la rge st ma rke t.T h e c ountry insta lle d 21.9 GW,a 6%a nnua l d e c re a se in a ye a r ma rke d b y th e a ntic irc umve ntion inve

116、stiga tions,th e U ygh ur Forc e d L a b or P rote c tion Ac t(U FL P A),a nd th e p a ssing of th e h istoric a l I nfla tion R e d uc tion Ac t(I R A).T h is la c klustre p e rforma nc e p ut to a h a lt th e uninte rrup te d growth e xp e rie nc e d sinc e 2017.L ike in th e p re vious ye a rs,th

117、 e ma j ority of insta lla tions c a me from th e utility-sc a le se gme nt,a c c ounting for 13.8 GW or 63%of th e tota l.H owe ve r,th is is a n 18%d rop from th e 16.8 GW insta lle d in 2021,a s th e la rge-sc a le se gme nt wa s th e most imp a c te d b y th e d e ta inme nts of p rod uc ts c a

118、use d b y th e U S Customs With h old R e le a se Ord e r(WR O)a nd th e U FL P A.On th e c ontra ry,th e rooftop se gme nt fle w h igh a nd gre w 25%to re a c h 8.1 GW,d rive n b y a strong re sid e ntia l d e ma nd.F I GUR E 7 T OP 10 S OL AR P V MAR K ET S,2021-20220102030405060708090100GW2022202

119、1ChinaUnited StatesAustraliaJapanGermanySpainNetherlandsIndiaPolandBrazil94.721.917.410.97.48.46.54.54.14.054.923.414.25.56.04.86.43.83.66.0 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202715I n d i a s re b ound c ontinue d in 2022 th e d isa p p ointing 2018-202

120、0 d e ve lop me nt p e riod se e ms to b e h istory.S ola r d e ma nd wa s on a c onsta nt d e c line from 2017 to 2020,p lumme ting from 11.5 GW to a me re 3.9 GW.H owe ve r,a fte r p osting a ne w insta lla tion re c ord in 2021,th e c ountry a d d e d a n imp re ssive 17.4 GW of sola r c a p a c

121、ity in 2022 b e a ting th e 2021 re c ord b y ove r 3 GW.T h is a c h ie ve me nt se c ure d th e c ountry th e th ird p osition it got b a c k in 2021.I nd ia e xp e rie nc e d a 23%a nnua l growth ra te,a p a th th a t is e xp e c te d to c ontinue a s th e c ountry ta rge ts 500 GW of non-fossil

122、fue l e le c tric ity c a p a c ity b y 2030 a nd its c ommitme nt to a c h ie ve ne t-ze ro c a rb on e missions b y 2070.De sp ite th e imp re ssive p rogre ss,I nd ia still fa c e s c h a lle nge s in its sola r ind ustry.T h e c ountry wa s h e a vily h it b y CO V I D-19 a nd se ve ra l p roj e

123、 c ts re ma ins d e la ye d b e c a use of sup p ly c h a ins d isrup tions.Ad d itiona lly,with th e introd uc tion of th e Ba sic Custom Duty in 2022,imp osing a 40%d uty on imp orte d mod ule s a nd 25%on c e lls,ma ny p roj e c ts a re fa c ing fina nc ing c h a lle nge s.More ove r,th e rooftop

124、 ma rke t re ma ins und e rd e ve lop e d -only 4.9 GW wa s a d d e d in 2022 p re se nting a 28%sh a re of a nnua l insta lla tions.R ooftop sola r wa s re sp onsib le for a c umula tive c a p a c ity of a b out 10 GW b y e nd of 2022,wh ic h is fa lling signific a ntly sh ort of th e 40 GW ta rge

125、t for rooftop sola r,a nd c onsid e re d th e ma in re a son wh y I nd ia misse d its 100 GW sola r ta rge t b y a la rge ma rgin.T h e c ountry h a d insta lle d a tota l of only 77 GW.Ove rc oming th e se c h a lle nge s will b e c ruc ia l for I nd ia to furth e r a c c e le ra te its sola r a d

126、op tion a nd a c h ie ve its a mb itious re ne wa b le e ne rgy ta rge ts.Afte r ma king its d e b ut in th e top 10 sola r ma rke ts in 2021 a t th e 7th p osition,Br a zi l h a s now e nte re d th e top 5 a t th e 4th p osition c urre ntly th e sole re p re se nta tive from L a tin Ame ric a in th

127、 e top 10.T h e c ountry insta lle d 10.9 GW of sola r c a p a c ity in 2022,b a sic a lly d oub ling its p re vious re c ord of 5.5 GW in 2021.T h e ma j ority of la st ye a rs insta lla tions,a round 8 GW,c a me from d istrib ute d sola r syste ms with a c a p a c ity of up to 5 MW.U ntil th e e n

128、d of la st ye a r,th e se gme nt e nj oye d a ve ry a ttra c tive ne t-me te ring sc h e me,wh ose rule s h a ve c h a nge d for p roj e c ts b uilt from 2023 onwa rd s,inc lud ing ne w grid-c onne c tion fe e s.T h is trigge re d a rush of insta lla tions in 2022 from c onsume rs wish ing to a c c

129、e ss th e more b e ne fic ia l sc h e me.T h e Bra zilia n sola r se c tor a lso sa w growth in c e ntra lise d syste ms,tota lling 1.5 GW a nd p rima rily d rive n b y e ne rgy a uc tions for la rge-sc a le p owe r p la nts,a s we ll a s th e d e ve lop me nt of some p owe r p urc h a se a gre e me

130、 nt(P P A)b a se d syste ms.Bra zils imp re ssive a sc e nt in th e sola r ma rke t h igh ligh ts th e c ountrys p ote ntia l a nd growing inte re st in re ne wa b le e ne rgy.De sp ite th e c h a lle nge s p ose d b y its inve stme nt-ne e d ing tra nsmission syste m,Bra zils sola r se c tor d e mo

131、nstra te d re silie nc e a nd growth in b oth I llustr a ti on of 0.5 MW of f sh or e sola r pr oj e c t of f th e c oa st of S c h e ve n i n ge n,Dutc h Nor th S e a.S ola rDuc k1 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-2022/c ontinue dGlob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-20

132、2716d istrib ute d a nd c e ntra lise d sola r insta lla tions.A ma rke t c ontra c tion is ne ve rth e le ss e xp e c te d in th e sh ort-te rm,in ligh t of th e le ss fa voura b le ne t-me te ring rule s.S pa i n move d up b y th re e p ositions in th e ra nking a nd is now c losing th e top 5,b e

133、 c oming th e le a d ing Europ e a n ma rke t with a ne wly insta lle d c a p a c ity of 8.4 GW in 2022.T h is re p re se nts a nota b le 76%inc re a se from th e 4.8 GW insta lle d th e ye a r b e fore.T h e ma in b ulk of insta lla tions c ontinue s to b e its rob ust P P A-d rive n utility-sc a l

134、e se gme nt,wh ic h a c c ounte d for 5.3 GW of insta lla tions in 2022 with out re lying on a ny form of sub sid ie s,ma king S p a in one of th e la rge st sub sid y-fre e sola r ma rke ts glob a lly.T h is tre nd is e xp e c te d to p e rsist a s th e c ountry stre a mline d e nvironme nta l p e

135、rmits for ove r 25 GW of sola r P V p la nts in e a rly 2023.H owe ve r,a se c ond ke y d rive r b e h ind S p a ins p rogre ss in 2022 wa s th e signific a nt e volution of its se lf-c onsump tion rooftop ma rke t.I n 2022,th e rooftop se gme nt a c h ie ve d 3 GW of ne w c a p a c ity,d oub ling t

136、h e ma rke t size from one ye a r to th e oth e r.Alongsid e p olic y imp rove me nts,rising e le c tric ity p ric e s ste mming from th e e ne rgy c risis h a ve b e c ome a strong inc e ntive for h ome owne rs a nd b usine sse s to a d op t sola r p owe r.T h is fa c tor migh t b e c ome e ve n mo

137、re re le va nt in 2024 onc e th e p ric e c a p on na tura l ga s use d for p owe r ge ne ra tion e nd s,wh ic h is p la nne d for a t th e e nd of 2023.H owe ve r,e ne rgy p ric e s on th e Europ e a n sp ot ma rke ts h a ve d rop p e d signific a ntly in th e sp ring of 2023.With in th e top 5 ma

138、rke ts,signific a nt d iffe re nc e s re ma in(se e Fig 8).Ch ina took a strong le a d in 2016,a nd no oth e r ma rke ts h a ve b e e n c lose to p la ying in its le a gue sinc e.T h e ga p b e twe e n th e#1 ma rke t a nd th e#3 ma rke t is five fold,wh ile th e d iffe re nc e b e twe e n th e#1 a

139、nd#5 ma rke ts e xc e e d s e le ve nfold.I n 2021,th e d iffe re nc e b e twe e n top#1 a nd#5 wa s only e igh tfold.Coming a s th e se c ond Europ e a n ma rke t in th is ra nking,G e r ma n y ma inta ine d its#6 p osition,th e sa me sp ot it h e ld in 2021.T h e c ountry witne sse d a 23%growth i

140、n grid-c onne c te d sola r c a p a c ity,re a c h ing 7.4 GW in 2022 c omp a re d to 6 GW in 2021.Ge rma nys sola r se c tor is mostly b a se d on rooftop insta lla tions,wh ic h a re sup p orte d b y a re lia b le fe e d-in p re mium sc h e me a nd re gula r te nd e rs for syste ms la rge r th a n

141、 750 kW a th re sh old inc re a se d to 1 MW sinc e J a nua ry 2023.H ouse h old s inc re a singly find se lf-c onsump tion F I GUR E 8 T OP 5 S OL AR P V MAR K ET S 2010-2022 0102030405060708090100GW2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022ChinaUnited StatesIndiaBrazilSpain94.721.917.410

142、.98.4 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202717sola r P V syste ms a ttra c tive,ve ry ofte n c omb ining th e ir sola r inve stme nt with b a tte ry stora ge a fa c tor a mp lifie d b y th e p re se nc e of some of th e h igh e st re sid e ntia l e le c

143、tric ity re ta il p ric e s in Europ e.On th e oth e r h a nd,th e inc re a se in te nd e r volume s in 2019 h a s c ontrib ute d to th e growth of ground-mounte d sola r c a p a c ity,wh ic h wa s furth e r sup p orte d b y th e e xp a nsion of P P A syste ms.T h e utility-sc a le se gme nt gre w f

144、rom 2.2 GW in 2021 to 3 GW in 2022.T h e Ge rma n gove rnme nt h a s re c ognise d th e signific a nc e of sola r p owe r a nd se t a mb itious ta rge ts,a iming for re ne wa b le s to a c c ount for 80%of th e tota l p owe r ge ne ra tion b y 2030 a nd 100%b y 2035,a nd a ta rge t of 215 GW of sola

145、 r P V c a p a c ity b y 2030.T h e fla tte r tra j e c tory of J a pa n s sola r ma rke t imp a c te d its ra nking,d rop p ing from 4th in 2021 to 7th in 2022.T h e c ountry insta lle d 6.5 GW in 2022,a simila r p e rforma nc e to th e 6.4 GW c onne c te d in 2021 b ut a 21%d rop from th e 8.2 GW

146、in 2020.T h e ma j ority of th e insta lle d c a p a c ity in 2022 c a n b e a ttrib ute d to fe e d-in ta riff(FI T)a nd fe e d in p re mium(FI P)p roj e c ts th a t re c e ive d a p p rova l a fe w ye a rs a go.With th e e nd of th e FI T e ra a t th e e nd of 2022,th e ma rke t h a s e nte re d a

147、 tra nsitioning p e riod th a t is re fle c te d in sta gna ting insta lla tions le ve ls,wh ile ne w b usine ss mod e ls b a se d on P P As a nd th ird-p a rty owne rsh ip a re b e ginning to ga in mome ntum.P ola n d,wh ic h e me rge d a s a ne wc ome r on th e top 10 list la st ye a r,ke e p s gr

148、owing a nd move d up two sp ots to ra nk 8th.T h e c ountry insta lle d 4.5 GW of sola r c a p a c ity in 2022,a 20%growth c omp a re d to th e p re vious ye a r.Wh ile th e P olish ma rke t h a s now b e e n in th e ra d a r of most sola r a na lysts for a t le a st two ye a rs,its p ositive d e ve

149、 lop me nt e xc e e d e d a ga in most e xp e c ta tions.T h e growth of sola r in P ola nd h a s b e e n p rima rily d rive n b y sma ll rooftop syste ms b e low 50 kW.T h is se gme nt b e ne fite d from a fa voura b le ne t-me te ring sc h e me th a t wa s in p la c e until Ma rc h 2022 Glob a l M

150、a rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2021-20251 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-2022/c ontinue dGlob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202718a nd h a s b e e n sub stitute d b y a ne t-b illing syste m.I n 2022,P ola nd s rooftop se gme nt wa s re sp onsib le for 78%of th

151、 e insta lle d c a p a c ity.Wh ile th e future of th e sma ll rooftop ma rke t re ma ins unc e rta in,P ola nd is now sh ifting its foc us towa rd s th e la rge-sc a le se gme nt.Ma ny c omp a nie s a re e ye ing sola r P V to se c ure th e ir e ne rgy sup p ly via P P As.U nlike its wind e ne rgy

152、c ounte rp a rt,sola r p owe r in P ola nd fa c e s fe we r signific a nt re gula tory b a rrie rs a nd h a s th e p ote ntia l to me e t th e c ountrys e ne rgy ne e d s with in a re la tive ly sh ort time fra me.S till,th e a ging infra struc ture a nd th e a me nd me nt to th e S p a tia l P la n

153、ning a nd De ve lop me nt Ac t c ould p ose a c h a lle nge for th e long-te rm d e ve lop me nt of la rge-sc a le P V in th e c ountry.A ke y p la ye r on th e Europ e a n p la yground for now se ve ra l ye a rs,th e N e th e r la n d s ma d e its first e ntry on th e top 10 glob a l sc e ne a t th

154、 e 9th sp ot in 2022.T h e c ountry insta lle d 4.1 GW in 2022,a c c e le ra ting its up wa rd tra j e c tory from th e 3.6 GW insta lle d in 2021(+13%Y oY),a nd 3.5 GW in 2020(+2%Y oY).T h e growth in th e re sid e ntia l se gme nt p la ye d a signific a nt role,c ontrib uting 1.8 GW or 46%of c a p

155、 a c ity a d d itions,th a nks to th e a ttra c tive ne t-me te ring p olic y th a t h a s b e e n c onsiste ntly in p la c e.At th e sa me time,th e C&I se gme nt fa c e d c h a lle nge s from th e rising te c h nology a nd logistic s c osts,re sulting in a sligh t loss of mome ntum a d d ing 1.3 G

156、W,its sh a re d rop p e d b y 5 p e rc e nta ge p oints to 37%ye a r on ye a r.H owe ve r,th e Dutc h sola r ma rke t ma inta ins a good b a la nc e b e twe e n its va rious se gme nts,p ositioning it a s th e le a d ing Europ e a n c ountry in te rms of sola r c a p a c ity p e r c a p ita.Consid e

157、 ring th e limite d a va ila b le sp a c e for ground-mounte d insta lla tions,th e ind ustry is e xp loring innova tive solutions suc h a s on-a nd off-sh ore floa ting sola r,a nd sola r c a rp orts,a long with inc re a se d loc a l p a rtic ip a tion in re ne wa b le e ne rgy p roj e c ts,a ime d

158、 a t e nh a nc ing soc ia l a c c e p ta nc e a nd inte gra tion.L osing five p la c e s in th e glob a l ra nking,Austr a li a c lose s th e top 10 ma rke ts.I n 2022 th e Austra lia n ma rke t took a ste p b a c kwa rd s,a fte r uninte rrup te d p ositive p rogre ss sinc e 2014.T h e c ountry d e

159、p loye d 4 GW in 2022,a 34%d e c re a se from th e re c ord 6 GW insta lle d in 2021.S till,Austra lia re ma ins th e c ountry with th e h igh e st sola r p owe r p e r c a p ita in th e world.T h e c h a lle nging b usine ss c ond itions re sulting from th e R ussia n inva sion in U kra ine a nd c

160、omp one nt p ric e inc re a se s limite d growth in th e se c tor a s a wh ole.H owe ve r,th e e le c tion of a gove rnme nt sup p ortive of re ne wa b le a nd c lima te a c tion in ge ne ra l is e xp e c te d to tra nsla te into a fa voura b le e nvironme nt for re ne wa b le e ne rgy d e p loyme n

161、t.Also,th e imp rove d P V c omp one nt p ric e c ond itions in re c e nt month s h a ve a lre a d y re sulte d in a n inc re a se of sola r insta lla tions in c omp a rison to th e first month s in 2022.1.6 MW,Be r ge n,Nor wa y.Ba yWa r.e.Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202719T

162、o summa rise,2022 p rove d to b e a n e xc e p tiona lly strong ye a r for sola r e ne rgy,c onsid e ring th a t se ve ra l c ountrie s we re still fa c ing COV I D-19 re la te d re stric tions in th e first month s of th a t ye a r.With a 45%a nnua l growth,ne w insta lla tions c omforta b ly p a s

163、se d th e 200 GW mile stone for th e first time in h istory.S imila rly to p re vious ye a rs,growth wa s p rima rily d rive n b y Ch ina,furth e r c e me nting its glob a l sola r le a d e rsh ip.Ch ina a lone wa s re sp onsib le for 40%of glob a l a nnua l insta lla tions in 2022,up 7 p e rc e nta

164、 ge p oints from th e 33%it p rovid e d in 2021(se e Fig.9).Most of th e oth e r top 10 ma rke ts d e c re a se d th e ir glob a l sh a re c omp a re d to th e p re vious ye a r,wh ile th e p ortion insta lle d in a ll re ma ining c ountrie s inc re a se d from 22%to 25%,e mp h a sising th e inc re

165、a sing re c ognition of sola r p owe r a s a c ruc ia l solution in c omb a ting c lima te c h a nge.T h is is a lso re fle c te d in th e re c ord numb e r of c ountrie s re a c h ing a n a nnua l GW-size:in 2022,26 c ountrie s c rosse d th e th re sh old,c omp a re d to 17 th e ye a r b e fore.De

166、ta ils on th e se 26 ma rke ts c a n b e found in Ch a p te r 4 wh e re na tiona l ind ustry a ssoc ia tions a c tive in th e sola r se c tor p rovid e a na lysis on th e ir h ome ma rke ts(se e p.69).R e gi on a l U pd a te Following th e re c ord-b re a king sola r ye a r in Ch ina,th e Asi a-P a

167、c i f i c (AP AC)re gion inc re a se d its glob a l sola r d omina nc e,ga ining 3 p e rc e nta ge p oints a nd re a c h ing 60%of a nnua l insta lle d c a p a c ity in 2022.H owe ve r,AP AC c onsid e re d with out Ch ina lost glob a l ma rke t sh a re,d rop p ing from 24%to 20%(se e Fig.19).T h is

168、re fle c ts th e giga ntic size of Ch ina,wh ose sh a re inc re a se d from 33%to 40%in a single ye a r.N e ve rth e le ss,with th e a d d ition of 144 GW in 2022,signific a ntly surp a ssing th e 94.3 GW insta lle d in 2021,Ch ina toge th e r with th e oth e r Asia-P a c ific c ountrie s,wh ic h a

169、d d e d 48.9 GW,ma inta in th e p osition a s th e la rge st sola r ma rke t re gion glob a lly.Wh ile Ch ina und isp ute d ly c ontinue d to d rive th e wh ole AP AC sola r ma rke t,wh e n looking a t th e oth e r ke y re giona l p la ye rs it is nota b le th a t th e 3.2 GW ma rgina l growth in I

170、nd ia wa s not suffic ie nt to c omp e nsa te for th e slowd own in Austra lia a nd S outh K ore a,wh ose c omb ine d a nnua l ma rke t d e c re a se d b y a lmost 4 GW.T h e d ownwa rd tre nd of AP AC with out Ch ina c ontinue s,a fte r th e d e c line a lre a d y se e n in 2021,wh e n its sh a re

171、d rop p e d from 27%to 24%d ue to th e sub sta ntia l d ownturn in F I GUR E 9 T OP 10 COUNT R I ES S OL AR S HAR E 2022Rest of World;25%Australia;2%Netherlands;2%Poland;2%Japan;3%Spain;3%Brazil;4%India;7%Germany;3%United States;9%China;40%239 GW2022 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20231 G l o b a l s o l

172、a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-2022/c ontinue dth e V ie tna me se ma rke t,wh ic h d rop p e d 10 GW d own to 2 GW a nd re sulte d in th e loss of its top 10 p osition.Wh ile V ie tna m h a s not re c ove re d,th e numb e r of Asia n-P a c ific c ountrie s in th e top te n glob a l p la ye rs h a v

173、e d e c re a se d from 5 to 4 in 2022,a s S outh K ore a wa s re p la c e d b y th e N e th e rla nd s.I n E ur ope,th e strong p e rforma nc e of th e sola r ind ustry le d to a ma j or inc re a se in a nnua l insta lle d c a p a c ity.T h e re gion witne sse d a ye a r-on-ye a r growth of 14.1 GW

174、or 44%p e rc e nta ge p oints,a fte r it insta lle d a tota l of 46.1 GW in 2022,c ontrib uting to a glob a l ma rke t sh a re of 19%.T h is outc ome se ts th e Old Contine nt,wh ic h wa s th e glob a l ma rke t le a d e r b e twe e n 2004 a nd 2012,a ga in a s th e se c ond la rge st re gion in a n

175、nua l sola r P V d e p loyme nt,surp a ssing th e Ame ric a s.T h is re sult is h igh e r th a n th e Me d ium S c e na rio p roj e c tion from our p re vious GMO,wh e re we a ntic ip a te d th e c ontine nt would a d d 39.1 GW,wh ic h is 7 GW lowe r th a n th e a c tua l re sult.Ove r 80%of Europ e

176、 a n ma rke ts insta lle d more sola r th a n th e ye a r b e fore.S p a in b e c a me th e ne w sola r c h a mp ion of th e re gion with 8.4 GW ove rta king th e sc e p tre from Ge rma ny,wh ic h gre w b y 1.4 GW to 7.4 GW,b ut th a t wa s not e nough to d e fe nd its Europ e a n le a d e rsh ip ti

177、tle.P ola nd (4.5 GW),th e N e th e rla nd s(4.0 GW),a nd I ta ly(2.5 GW)a lso outp e rforme d th e ir p re vious ye a rs p e rforma nc e.Europ e s se c ond sp ot in th e re giona l ra nking,in fa c t,is not d ue to a n inc re a se in its re la tive sh a re,wh ic h re ma ine d sta b le a t 19%,b ut

178、ra th e r to a d e c re a se in th e Ame r i c a s re la tive sh a re from 20%to 17%.T h e re gion h a s now d rop p e d to ra nk#3 in te rms of a nnua l sola r c a p a c ity a d d itions,sta nd ing a t 41.1 GW wh ic h is still a 22%inc re a se from th e 33.6 GWinsta lle d th e p re vious ye a r.Wh

179、ile th e U S re ma ine dth e le a d ing p la ye r in th e re gion,th e d e c re a se of itsa nnua l ma rke t size from 23.4 GW to 21.9 GW h a ssome wh a t re d uc e d its re giona l p re d omina nc e in2022.T h e oth e r two-d igit GW sola r forc e is nowc oming from S outh Ame ric a Bra zil d oub l

180、e d itsa nnua l insta lle d c a p a c ity from 5.5 GW in 2021 to 10.9GW in 2022.Wh ile,a s in th e p re vious ye a r,b oth th eU S a nd Bra zil we re th e ma in d rive rs of sola r growthin th e re gion in 2022,Ch ile h a s a lso c onfirme d itsinc re a singly re le va nt role in th e c ontine nt,gr

181、owingfrom 1.3 GW to 1.8 GW.Conve rse ly,Me xic o,nowra nke d fourth in th e Ame ric a s,c ontinue d its d e c lined ue to unfa voura b le gove rnme nt p olic ie s th a tp rioritise fossil fue ls ove r re ne wa b le s a nd th e sta te-owne d c omp a ny CFE ove r oth e r ma rke t p la ye rs.F I GUR E

182、10 ANNU AL S OL AR P V I NS T AL L ED CAP ACI T Y S HAR ES 2018-20220102030405060708090100%20222018201920202021EuropeAMERAPACChinaMEA3%3%6%2%3%40%43%26%35%33%20%27%31%27%24%17%16%18%19%20%19%11%20%17%19%S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202721Fina lly,in

183、 2022,th e Mid d le Ea st a nd Afric a (MEA)re gion witne sse d re ma rka b le sola r growth,a d d ing 8.3 GW,wh ic h re p re se nts a 77%inc re a se c omp a re d to th e p re vious ye a r.T h is p rogre ss is a ne w a ll-time h igh for th e re gion,b re a king MEAs re c ord of 6.7GW in 2019,wh e n

184、multip le la rge-sc a le p roj e c ts we re c ommissione d.T h ough no MEA c ountrie s re a c h e d th e GW-le ve l in 2021,two ma rke ts h a ve a c h ie ve d th is th re sh old in 2022.I sra e l e me rge d a s th e la rge st sola r ma rke t in th e Mid d le Ea st,re a c h ing th e GW sc a le for th

185、 e first time with j ust ove r 1 GW of ne wly insta lle d c a p a c ity,from 935 MW in 2021.On th e Afric a n c ontine nt,S outh Afric a re ta ine d its le a d ing p osition,insta lling 1.3 GW of sola r c a p a c ity in 2022 a nd a c h ie ving th e GW-sc a le a s fore c a ste d la st ye a r.T ota l

186、S ola r I n sta lla ti on s un ti l 2 02 2 By th e e nd of 2022,th e glob a l c umula tive insta lle d c a p a c ity of sola r P V syste ms e xp e rie nc e d 25%growth,re a c h ing 1,177 GW c omp a re d to 938 GW in 2021,wh e n th e sola r fle e t gre w b y 21%(Fig.11).T h e sola r p owe r c a p a c

187、 ity h a s multip lie d 740 time s sinc e th e b e ginning of th e mille nnium,wh e n th e grid-c onne c te d sola r e ra b e ga n with Ge rma nys introd uc tion of th e fe e d-in ta riff la w.Wh e n c omp a ring th e c a p a c ity in 2022 with th e sola r fle e t a t th e sta rt of th e p re vious

188、d e c a d e,th e glob a l on-grid P V c a p a c ity h a s grown 28 time s from th e 41.4 GW op e ra ting in 2010.Ma j or sola r ma rke t d e ve lop me nt mile stone s we re 2008,wh e n th e 10 GW le ve l wa s surp a sse d,a nd 2012,wh e n th e 100 GW wa s re a c h e d.I t th e n took until 2018 to c

189、 ra c k th e 500 GW,a nd 4 ye a rs until th e ma rke t d oub le d to th e T W le ve l in 2022.F I GUR E 11 T OT AL S OL AR P V I NS T AL L ED CAP ACI T Y 2000-202202004006008001,0001,2001,400GWEuropeAMERAPACChinaMEA2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202

190、021202226%22%21%1,177 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20231 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-2022/c ontinue dGlob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202722T h e AP AC re gion,le d b y Ch ina a nd I nd ia,d e monstra te d susta ine d growth a nd ma inta ine d its p osition a s th

191、e world s sola r p owe rh ouse.By e nd of 2022,th e AP AC re gion inc lud ing Ch ina a c c ounte d for 59%of glob a l sola r p owe r ge ne ra tion c a p a c ity,with a tota l of 692 GW(se e Fig.12).With ove r 400 GW insta lle d,Ch ina a lone p rovid e d 58%of AP ACs sola r c a p a c ity,wh ile th e

192、re st of th e re gion c ontrols th e re ma ining 289 GW.De sp ite th e growth e xp e rie nc e d in most of th e Europ e a n sola r ma rke ts,th e re gions glob a l ma rke t sh a re ma rgina lly d e c re a se d b y 1 p e rc e nta ge p oint to 21%.U nlike for a nnua l insta lla tions,wh e re it re ga

193、ine d th e se c ond ra nk,wh e n it c ome s to th e tota l op e ra ting sola r fle e t,Europ e wa s a nd re ma ine d th e N o.2 in 2022.T h e re c ord-a d d ition of 46.1 GW e ve n a llowe d Europ e to stre ngth e n its se c ond p osition with a c umula tive P V c a p a c ity of 252 GW.T h e Ame ric

194、 a s ke p t its#3 re giona l ra nking in 2022.T h e re gions tota l insta lle d P V c a p a c ity of e xa c tly 200 GW re sulte d in a glob a l sh a re of 17%,unc h a nge d c omp a re d to 2021.Alth ough th e Mid d le Ea st a nd Afric a re gion witne sse d sub sta ntia l d e ma nd growth,it h a d no

195、 ma j or imp a c t on its sola r p ositioning.T h e re gions c umula tive sola r c a p a c ity stood a t 33.3 GW,with its glob a l sh a re re ma ining a t 3%in 2022.F I GUR E 12 T OT AL S OL AR P V I NS T AL L ED CAP ACI T Y S HAR ES 2018-20220102030405060708090100%20212022201820192020EuropeAMERAPAC

196、ChinaMEA2%3%3%3%3%34%32%33%33%34%25%26%26%26%25%15%16%16%17%17%24%24%22%22%21%S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202723An a na lysis of ind ivid ua l c ountrie s op e ra ting fle e ts sh ows onc e more Ch ina s d omina nt p osition in th e sola r world.T

197、h a nks to its op e ra tiona l fle e t of 403 GW,Ch ina a lone p rovid e d 34%of th e world s sola r c a p a c ity,one p e rc e nta ge p oint more th a n in 2021(Fig.13).De sp ite th e sh e e r volume of glob a lly d e p loye d sola r P V syste ms,th e c ountry ma inta ins a re ma rka b le influe nc

198、 e on glob a l sola r d yna mic s.T h e U nite d S ta te s c omforta b ly ma inta ine d th e se c ond p osition with 141 GW,h owe ve r its sh a re d e c re a se d b y one p oint to 12%.S till,it re ma ins th e only c ountry b e sid e s Ch ina with a d oub le-d igit sh a re in glob a l sola r p owe r

199、 ge ne ra tion c a p a c ity a nd with more th a n 100 GW insta lle d.J a p a n ke p t th e th ird p osition it h e ld in 2021,b ut its re la tive sh a re d e c re a se d b y one p e rc e nta ge p oint to 7%with a fle e t of 84.1 GW.By c ontra st,I nd ia s se c ond strong ye a r in a row h e lp e d

200、th e c ountry to surp a ss Ge rma ny a nd se c ure th e fourth p osition b y th e e nd of 2022.I nd ia s tota l P V insta lla tion re a c h e d 77.6 GW a nd its glob a l ma rke t sh a re sligh tly inc re a se d from 6%to 7%.Ge rma ny d rop p e d b y one ra nk a nd c lose s th e top 5 in 2022 with a

201、n unc h a nge d 6%sh a re a nd a 68 GW sola r fle e t.Me mb e rs of th e top 5 group a re longsta nd ing,a nd a re unlike ly to c h a nge a nytime soon.Austra lia,ra nking sixth,a s p re vious ye a r,h a s le ss th a n h a lf th e tota l sola r P V c a p a c ity of Ge rma ny.Among th e b ottom h a l

202、f of th e top 10,nota b le c h a nge s inc lud e S p a in c limb ing two ste p s to re a c h th e se ve nth p osition with 27.4 GW,ove rta king b oth I ta ly 8th with 24.6 GW a nd S outh K ore a 9th with 24.3 GW.Bra zil,a ne wc ome r c omp le ting th is list a nd ove rta king V ie tna ms 10th p osit

203、ion,re a c h e d 24 GW of tota l insta lle d c a p a c ity.F I GUR E 13 T OP 10 S OL AR P V MAR K ET S T OT AL I NS T AL L ED S HAR ES 2022Rest of World;23%Australia;3%Brazil;2%Germany;6%South Korea;2%India;7%Japan;7%Italy;2%Spain;2%United States;12%China;34%1,177 GW2022 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 202

204、3Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-2027241 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-2022/c ontinue dS ola r wa tt pe r c a pi ta th e wor ld se e ms d i f f e r e n t L ooking a t insta lle d P V c a p a c itie s from a p e r-c a p ita p e rsp e c tive,one c a n find a c omp

205、 le te ly d iffe re nt outlook on th e glob a l sola r la nd sc a p e.N one of th e top th re e glob a l sola r ma rke ts,na me ly Ch ina,th e U S,a nd I nd ia,fe a ture s in th e top 10 list of insta lle d c a p a c ity p e r c a p ita (re fe r to Fig.14).H owe ve r,c omp a re d to la st ye a r,we

206、ob se rve th a t th e most p romine nt p la ye rs in th e glob a l sola r ma rke t,more a nd more figure a lso in th e list of h igh e st insta lle d syste m c a p a c itie s p e r inh a b ita nt.I n 2021,a mong th e 10 la rge st a nnua l sola r ma rke ts,only 4 we re a lso p a rt of th e top 10 ma

207、rke ts in te rms of insta lle d W/c a p ita na me ly Austra lia,Ge rma ny,J a p a n,a nd S outh K ore a.I n 2022,th e re a re now 5 p la ye rs th a t fe a ture in b oth th e top 10 of a nnua l ma rke ts,a nd th e top 10 of insta lle d wa tt p e r c a p ita:Austra lia,th e N e th e rla nd s,Ge rma ny

208、,J a p a n a nd S p a in.Europ e is now th e most re p re se nte d c ontine nt,with th re e p la ye rs a p p e a ring in b oth ra nkings.Fe w c h a nge s took p la c e in th e top 5 ma rke ts in te rms of insta lle d c a p a c ity p e r inh a b ita nt.T h e p od ium re ma ins th e sa me with Austra

209、lia (1,191 W/c a p ita)le a d ing,a h e a d of T h e N e th e rla nd s(1,029 W/c a p ita)a nd Ge rma ny(815 W/c a p ita).T h e N e th e rla nd s h a s j oine d Austra lia in th e e xc lusive c lub of c ountrie s th a t re a c h e d insta lla tion le ve l of ove r 1 kW p e r inh a b ita nt in 2022.Bo

210、th c ountrie s a re e xp e c te d to h old th e ir p ositions a s th e p e r c a p ita sola r le a d e rs.On th e fourth p osition,De nma rk with 713 W/c a p ita is c limb ing its wa y up from th e 7th p osition it h e ld in 2021,re le ga ting J a p a n a t th e fifth p osition with 677 W/c a p ita.

211、F I GUR E 14 WOR L D T OP 10 COUNT R I ES S OL AR CAP ACI T Y P ER CAP I T A 2022AustraliaBelgiumSpainLegendDenmarkJapanEstoniaGreeceNetherlandsGermany1st6th8th5th7th10th2nd1,191(1,048)Watt/capita667(585)Watt/capita572(400)Watt/capitaWatt/capitain 2022677(621)Watt/capita713(424)Watt/capita601(404)Wa

212、tt/capita531(397)Watt/capita1,029(801)Watt/capita815(727)Watt/capitaSwitzerland9th535(422)Watt/capita4th3rd(Watt/capita)in 2021 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023Among th e la rge st a nnua l sola r ma rke ts,Ch ina,th e U nite d S ta te s a nd I nd ia sta nd a t 283,417,a nd 55 W/c a p ita,re sp e c tiv

213、e ly.T h e y h old p osition 26,17,a nd 64 in te rms of c ountrie s with th e h igh e st insta lle d c a p a c ity p e r inh a b ita nt,a striking d iffe re nc e c omp a re d to th e ir a b solute insta lla tion le ve ls.I n 2022,a n a ve ra ge of 144 W/c a p ita we re insta lle d a c ross th e glob

214、 e,up 23%from th e 117 W/c a p ita in 2021(se e Fig.18).At 296 W/c a p ita,Europ e h a s th e h igh e st re giona l a ve ra ge,followe d b y th e Ame ric a s(187 W/c a p ita),AP AC(154 W/c a p ita),a nd MEA(17 W/c a p ita).S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023F I GUR E 15 S OL AR P V WAT T P ER CAP I T A BY

215、 R EGI ON,2000-2022Watt per capita05010015020025030035020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022EuropeAMERAPACMEAGlobal29618715414417P R O S P E CT S 2 02 3 -2 02 7 F or e c a st 2 02 3 At th e onse t of 2022,th e re wa s op timism on th e d e ma nd

216、 sid e th a t th e h igh p re va iling p ric e s in th e sola r se c tor would d e c re a se.H owe ve r,b uye rs of sola r p rod uc ts h a d to wa it until th e se c ond h a lf of 2022 to witne ss a sta b ilisa tion in sola r p ric e s,with a d ownwa rd tre nd slowly a p p e a ring only towa rd s N

217、ove mb e r a nd De c e mb e r 2022.Wh ile th e p ric e s of silic on,wa fe rs,c e lls,a nd mod ule s a re still h igh e r th a n a c oup le of ye a rs a go,p ric e s c a me d own d uring th e first month s of 2023,a re lie f for th e ind ustry a fte r a n up wa rd tre nd la sting a lmost 18 month s.

218、Ma ny a na lysts a re now e xp e c ting p ric e s to c ontinue to d e c re a se a s ne w p rod uc tion c a p a c itie s a re c oming online,mostly c onc e ntra te d in Ch ina.Ad d itiona lly,th e p re d ic tion th a t ma ny d e ve lop e rs would h a ve p ostp one d th e ir p roj e c ts to 2023 se e

219、ms to h a ve c ome true.T h e first 2023 qua rte rly numb e rs of Ch ina a lone ind ic a te a n inc re a se of 155%c omp a re d to th e first qua rte r of 2022.On a wid e r p e rsp e c tive,th e glob a l e c onomy is still imp a c te d b y infla tion a nd is gra p p ling with th e e nd uring re p e

220、rc ussions of th e e ne rgy c risis.T h e Euro a re a e nte re d 2023 with infla tion ra te s ove r 8%,now d own to 7%a s of Ap ril 2023.T h e a nnua l infla tion ra te in th e U S a lso fe ll to 4.9%in Ap ril 2023,its lowe st p oint sinc e th e 9.1%of J une 2022.T h e situa tion is Ch ina is le ss

221、se ve re,with infla tion ra te s now d own to b e twe e n 0-1%,from 2.8%in S e p te mb e r 2022.I n th is c onte xt,th e sola r ind ustry is e xp e c te d to witne ss re ma rka b le growth in 2023.Ac c ord ing to our Me d ium S c e na rio,ne wly insta lle d sola r c a p a c ity is p roj e c te d to

222、re a c h 341 GW,re fle c ting a growth ra te of 43%c omp a re d to th e 239 GW insta lle d in 2022(se e Fig.16).O ur Me d ium S c e na rio e stima te migh t a p p e a r sligh tly more c onse rva tive c omp a re d to re c e nt fore c a sts of oth e r sola r a na lysts.End of Ma rc h,S&P Glob a l(form

223、e rly I H S Ma rkit)re vise d up wa rd s its 2023 fore c a st b y 30 GW to 360 GW,wh ile P V I nfolinks ma rke t up d a te,a lso re le a se d in Ma rc h,e xp e c ts 351 GW of insta lle d c a p a c ity in its most p rob a b ly sc e na rio.I n its la te st sola r ma rke t fore c a st,Bloomb e rgN EF b

224、 e c a me a lso more a mb itious,e stima ting insta lla tions to ra nge b e twe e n 233 a nd 380 GW with a mid-p oint of 344 GW,up from 316 GW a ssume d in J a nua ry 2023.T h e re a re ind ustry e xp e rts wh o b e lie ve th e ma rke t will a b sorb a s muc h a s 400 GW,wh ile th e I EA,wh ic h j u

225、st p ub lish e d its R e ne wa b le s 2023 re p ort,is sta nd ing out on th e oth e r sid e.T h e I EA a lso h a ils sola r a s th e le a d ing forc e in re ne wa b le d e p loyme nt,b ut it e xp e c ts only 286 GW of sola r a d d itions in 2023 in its Ma in c a se,a nd sligh tly a b ove 300 GW in i

226、ts Ac c e le ra te d c a se.H owe ve r,th is is a lso strongly up from its 2022 insta lla tion numb e r of 220 GW,wh ic h is a lso muc h lowe r th a n th e e stima te of a nyone e lse.1 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-P rosp e c ts 2023-2027/c ontinue dGlob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r

227、2023-202726 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023F I GUR E 16 WOR L D ANNU AL S OL AR P V MAR K ET S CENAR I OS 2023-2027 0GWHistorical dataLow ScenarioHigh ScenarioMedium Scenario100200300400500600700800900202220232024202520262027201820192020202123943%15%15%16%17%341401462534617I n a ny c a se,a ll a na ly

228、sts fore c a sts c le a rly ind ic a te th a t sola r d e p loyme nt is p roc e e d ing a t a strong p a c e.Our Me d ium S c e na rio a ntic ip a te s th a t th e ve ry h igh 45%growth ra te e xp e rie nc e d 2022 will b e b a sic a lly re p e a te d in 2023.Wh a ts more,it a ssume s th a t th e a

229、nnua l ma rke t will b e more th a n 100 GW la rge r th a n la st ye a r suc h ste e p p a c e of d e p loyme nt wa s outsid e a nyone s ra d a r until ve ry re c e ntly(se e our c omp a rison with p re vious fore c a sts on p.40).Mod e lling th e worst c a se for 2023,our L ow S c e na rio a ntic i

230、p a te s ma rke t growth of 292 GW,th a t would b e still up 22%from 2022.T h is lowe r e stima te is ve ry unlike ly to turn into re a lity give n th e strong d e ma nd for sola r in th e first month s of th e ye a r a round th e world.Wh e n we wrote th e p re vious GMO e d ition,S h a ngh a i wa

231、s still und e r L oc kd own,b ut tod a y a ny stric t CO V I D-19 re stric tions se e m inc onc e iva b le,a fte r Ch ina e nd e d its ze ro-CO V I D p olic y in De c e mb e r 2022 th a t wa s followe d b y a ma ssive infe c tion wa ve.An e xp a nsion of th e R ussia n wa r a ga inst U kra ine to ot

232、h e r c ountrie s is a p ossib ility,b ut a b ig sp ill ove r se e ms ra th e r unlike ly in th e ne a r future.Muc h more like ly is a ma rke t d e ve lop me nt in d ire c tion of our H igh S c e na rio,wh ic h a ntic ip a te s sola r a d d itions of up to 402 GW th is ye a r a numb e r th a t is h

233、 igh e r th a n th e up sid e p ote ntia l e stima te d b y BN EF a nd S&P (b oth a t a round 380 GW).With e ne rgy se c urity still h igh on th e a ge nd a of ma ny c ountrie s,a nd th e re c ord-h igh e ne rgy p ric e s from la st ye a r still on p olic y ma ke rs mind,th e y c ontinue th e ir wor

234、k on imp le me nting me a sure s to e a se d e ve lop me nt,insta lla tion a nd grid-c onne c tion of sola r syste ms a h e a d of th e ne xt winte r.And with p rod uc t p ric e s fa lling a long th e va lue c h a in now for se ve ra l month s a nd no e nd in sigh t wh e n looking a t th e ind ustry

235、s ove rc a p a c itie s th a t a re only growing,th is p ric e d e ve lop me nt tre nd will trigge r d e ma nd,a nd like ly b e re fle c te d a lre a d y in th is ye a rs numb e rs.BEFORE THERE IS A SOLAR PANEL THERE IS WACKERCREATING TOMORROWS SOLUTIONS Low Carbon Footprint High Effi ciency and Dur

236、ability Made in Europe and USAWacker Chemie AG,Hanns-Seidel-Platz 4,81737 Munich,Germany, Follow us on: e gi on a l ma r k e t d e ve lopme n ts 2 02 3 T h e ma rke t in Asi a-P a c i f i c will c ontinue to b e d omina te d b y th e two la rge st c ountrie s,Ch ina a nd I nd ia,re p re se nting a c

237、 omb ine d 79%of th e re gions 2023 insta lla tions.T h e ma rke t in Ch ina h a s now fina lise d its tra nsitiona l p h a se from fe e d-in ta riffs to a uc tions a nd non-sub sid ise d syste ms.I t sh owe d a stonish ing re silie nc e th rough out th e p a nd e mic a nd re a c h e d 48 GW in 2020

238、,th e n 54.9 GW in 2021,a nd 2022 ma rke d a ga in a re c ord ye a r of 94.7 GW,a 72%ye a r-on-ye a r growth ra te.T h is wa s signific a ntly h igh e r th a n th e glob a l sola r P V ma rke t e xp a nsion ra te,wh ic h stood a t 45%in 2022.I n our p re vious a sse ssme nt,we h a d e stima te d th

239、e Ch ine se sola r ma rke t to grow b y 59%in 2022 to re a c h 87.2 GW.I nd ustry a na lysts wid e ly a gre e th a t 2023 will witne ss a ne w le ve l of sola r d e ma nd in Ch ina,b e ing p ush e d up wa rd b y growing e le c tric ity ne e d s,lowe r P V p rod uc t p ric e s,a nd p olitic a l ta rg

240、e ts for re ne wa b le d e ve lop me nt.Our Me d ium S c e na rio for Ch ina le a ns more towa rd s th e op timistic sid e,a ntic ip a ting 141 GW,a 49%Y oY growth ra te.O ur up b e a t e xp e c ta tions ste m from th e fa c t th a t in th e first qua rte r of 2023 Ch ina c onne c te d a re c ord-b

241、re a king 33.6 GWAC(38.7 GWDC)2 of P V c a p a c ity to th e grid,a 155%growth from th e sa me p e riod in 2022.By th e e nd of Ap ril 2023,it insta lle d 48.3 GWAC(55.5 GWDC),a c c ord ing to Ch ina s N a tiona l Ene rgy Ad ministra tion.P roj e c tions from va rious a na lysts sh ow a wid e ra nge

242、,b ut a re a ll north of 100 GW.Wh ile th e Ch ina P h otovolta ic I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(CP I A)e xp e c ts th e ma rke t to b e some wh e re b e twe e n 95 GW a nd 120 GW,T re nd Forc e fore c a sts 148 GW.T h e b ooming sola r rooftop se c tor,wh ic h wa s e ve n b igge r th a n th e ground-mou

243、nte d syste ms se gme nt in th e la st two ye a rs,h a s b e c ome a ma j or d rive r of growth in Ch ina s sola r ma rke t,e xte nd ing b e yond re sid e ntia l a re a s a nd ma king its ma rk in th e c omme rc ia l a nd ind ustria l se gme nt,wh e re rising p owe r p ric e s h a ve b e e n p osing

244、 a strong inc e ntive for sola r inve stme nts.Ch i n a h a s a h istory of surp a ssing its re ne wa b le ta rge ts.T h e sola r se c tor outp e rforme d th e d e ve lop me nt goa ls se t in th e th re e p re vious na tiona l Five-Y e a r P la ns(FY P s).T h e c urre nt 14th FY P p ub lish e d in J

245、 uly 2022 h a s se t a n inc re a se in th e re ne wa b le sh a re in th e e le c tric ity mix from 28.8%b y th e e nd of 2020 to 33%b y 2025.T h e N a tiona lly De te rmine d Contrib ution(N DC)is a lso ve ry like ly to b e re a c h e d 5 ye a rs e a rlie r.T h e N DC is ta rge ting 1,200 GW of win

246、d a nd sola r c a p a c ity b y 2030,b ut th e c ountry c urre ntly h a s a lre a d y a round 810 GW insta lle d (380 GW of wind a nd 430 GW of sola r).T h e c ountry a lso h a s p rogra mme s for d e ve lop ing wind a nd sola r in d e se rt re gions,with a ta rge t of insta lling 450 GW of wind a n

247、d sola r.As of Ma rc h 2023,97 GW h a ve a lre a d y b e e n grid-c onne c te d,a nd c onstruc tion of oth e r sola r loc a tions a re p rogre ssing smooth ly,a c c ord ing to Ch ina Glob a l T e le vision N e twork(CGT N).T h e te rmina tion of th e c ountrys Z e ro-CO V I D stra te gy h a s a lso

248、c ut th e ove ra ll e c onomy some sla c k,with p ositive re p e rc ussions on la rge-sc a le sola r p roj e c ts.I f Ch ina s sola r ma rke t a c h ie ve s th e p roj e c te d 49%a nnua l growth in 2023,a s outline d in our Me d ium S c e na rio,its glob a l ma rke t sh a re will rise to 41%.U nd e

249、 r our H igh S c e na rio,th e ma rke t c ould grow up to 158 GW.T h is a mb itious p roj e c tion would ste m from th e grid-c onne c tion of ma ny p roj e c ts th a t got sta c ke d in que ue d uring th e 2021-2022 a nd a b ig b oost th rough p ric e s for mod ule s c olla p sing in e a rly summe

250、r.Following th e re b ound e xp e rie nc e d in 2021 with insta lla tions of 14.2 GW a nd a 265%growth ra te,I n d i a s p rogre ssion c ontinue d b ut slowe d d own,re a c h ing 17.4 GW in 2022.We a ntic ip a te a re la tive ly slowe r growth ye a r in 2023,with a p p roxima te ly 20 GW of ne wly i

251、nsta lle d c a p a c ity,re p re se nting a 15%growth c omp a re d to th e p re vious ye a r.T h e ma rke t ke e p s e xp a nd ing,b ut it is imp orta nt to c onsid e r I nd ia s h istoric a l se nsitivity to P V p rod uc t p ric e s.T h e imp le me nta tion of a b a sic c ustoms d uty of 25%on sola

252、 r c e lls a nd 40%on mod ule s from Ap ril 1st 2022 ma y re sult in p roj e c t d e la ys.T h e re we re a lso little mod ule imp orts from Ch ina in th e first month s of th e ye a r.As a re sult,our L ow S c e na rio a ssume s no growth in a nnua l insta lla tions.On th e oth e r h a nd,a fte r I

253、 nd ia fa ile d to me e t its 100 GW ta rge t b y th e e nd of 2022,th e gove rnme nt is imp le me nting va rious me a sure s to re a c h its a mb itious goa l of 280 GW of sola r P V b y 2030.Ac c omp lish ing th is ta rge t would re quire th e a nnua l ma rke t to e xp e rie nc e ra p id growth,a

254、ve ra ging 25 GW p e r ye a r b e twe e n 2023 a nd 2030.Consid e ring I nd ia s giga ntic sola r p ote ntia l a nd th e gove rnme nt e a sing its p rote c tive me a sure s for th e mome nt to b rid ge th e ga p until la rge volume s of h ome-ma d e p rod uc ts will b e a va ila b le,our H igh S c e

255、 na rio p roj e c ts a n inc re a se to 27 GW insta lle d in 2023.1 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-P rosp e c ts 2023-2027/c ontinue dGlob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-2027282Ch ina sola r P V c a p a c ity is typ ic a lly e xp re sse d in DC for rooftop syste ms a nd in AC for ut

256、ility-sc a le syste ms.For utility-sc a le,a 1.15 AC/DC c onve rsion fa c tor h a s b e e n use d in our a na lysis.Diffe re nt d e ve lop me nts a re e xp e c te d a c ross most Asia-P a c ific GW ma rke ts in 2023,with Austra lia p roj e c te d to grow b y 65%to 6.5 GW,T a i wa n c ontinuing its p

257、 ositive tra j e c tory from 2 GW in 2022 to 2.6 GW in 2023,a nd P a kista n,wh ic h j ust c rosse d th e GW-sc a le for th e first time in 2022,now a ntic ip a te d to re a c h 1.3 GW in 2023.A h e a vywe igh t in th e re gion from th e b e ginning of th e sola r on-grid e ra,J a pa n wa s p roj e

258、c te d to sh rink in 2022 b ut in fa c t ma na ge d to re ma in sta b le a t 6.5 GW.As th e c ountry c ontinue s its tra nsition a wa y from th e fe e d-in ta riffs p e riod towa rd more d ive rse b usine ss mod e ls,th e ma rke t is e xp e c te d to grow only ma rgina lly to 6.7 GW in 2023.On th e

259、c ontra ry,S outh K ore a s p olitic a l sh ift towa rd s infle xib le nuc le a r a nd th e re d uc tion of its re ne wa b le ta rge t from 30.2%to 21.6%b y 2030 h a s ne ga tive ly imp a c te d its sola r ma rke t.T h e d ownturn e xp e rie nc e d in 2022 is e xp e c te d to sta y,with th e ma rke

260、t furth e r d rop p ing to 2.4 GW in 2023,a 17%a nnua l re d uc tion.T h e AP AC re gion a s a wh ole will c ontinue to d omina te glob a l d e ma nd,a c c ounting for 60%of tota l insta lla tions in 2023(se e Fig.17).H owe ve r,wh e n c onsid e ring only th e insta lla tions in c ountrie s oth e r

261、th a n Ch ina,th e re gions sh a re is p roj e c te d to d e c line b y 2 p e rc e nta ge p oints.E ur ope s ma rke t is p roj e c te d to e xp e rie nc e sub sta ntia l growth in 2023.I t a d d e d 46.1 GW in 2022,a p lus of 14.1 GW from 2021,a nd is a ssume d to a d d 62.4 GW in 2023,a 35%a nnua l

262、 inc re a se.H owe ve r,d ue to Ch ina s d omina nc e,th e c ontine nts ma rke t sh a re will like ly sh rink a little b y 1 p e rc e nta ge p oint to 18%.T h e Europ e a n U nion(EU)is d riving sola r growth th rough its Gre e n De a l a nd R EP owe rEU initia tive s a nd th e a im for c a rb on ne

263、 utra lity b y 2050.T h e inva sion of U kra ine b y R ussia h a s motiva te d se ve ra l Europ e a n c ountrie s to p rioritise low-c ost a nd ve rsa tile sola r p owe r a s a n imp orta nt me a ns to re d uc e d e p e nd e nc e on R ussia n ga s a nd imp rove e ne rgy se c urity.With in th e EU-27

264、,a ll b ut one me mb e r sta te,D e n ma r k,a re p roj e c te d to insta ll more sola r c a p a c ity th a n th e ye a r b e fore.T h e outlooks for G e r ma n y a nd S pa i n a re p a rtic ula rly op timistic b oth a re mod e lle d to grid-c onne c t 11.8 GW a nd 11.4 GW,re sp e c tive ly.T h e st

265、rong d e p loyme nt in th e first qua rte r of 2023 in Ge rma ny p roj e c ts a ma rke t a lmost 3 GW a b ove th e gove rnme nt ta rge t,a nd surp a ssing th e 10 GW a nnua l insta lla tion le ve l for th e first time.De sp ite th e fa c t th a t c ond itions for th e ma j or re sid e ntia l sola r&

266、stora ge inc e ntive p rogra mme h a ve worse ne d,I ta ly is a lso a ssume d to b e on tra c k for furth e r growth,from 2.5 GW in 2022 to j ust a b ove 4 GW in 2023.Ove r 1 GW wa s d e p loye d in 29F I GUR E 17 EV OL U T I ON OF GL OBAL ANNU AL S OL AR P V MAR K ET S HAR ES UNT I L 20270100200300

267、400500600700GW202720222023202420252026EuropeAMERAPACChinaMEA3%5%6%6%7%8%40%41%40%37%36%34%20%18%19%20%20%22%17%17%16%18%17%16%19%18%19%20%20%19%S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023th e first qua rte r,b a c ke d b y insta lla tions b e low 20 kW,wh ic h a d d e d 647 MW.C&I insta lla tions re p re se nt th

268、 e se c ond la rge st se gme nt,wh ile utility-sc a le still ne e d s to find its swe e t sp ot for la rge r growth.Oth e r Europ e a n c ountrie s,inc lud ing P ola n d,th e N e th e r la n d s,F r a n c e,G r e e c e,Austr i a,Be lgi um,H un ga r y a nd S we d e n a re a lso a ntic ip a te d to c

269、ontrib ute me a ningfully to th e sola r ma rke t th is ye a r.Among th e non-EU c ountrie s,T r k i ye is b e lie ve d to insta ll 2.1 GW,wh ile th e U nite d K ingd om,re a p p e a ring on th e GW ma p in 2022 a fte r five ye a rs of a b se nc e,is b a c k for good a nd is a ntic ip a te d to grow

270、 to 1.8 GW in 2023.R ooftop-d rive n S witze rla nd c lose s th e p ic ture with ne w a d d itions of 1.2 GW in 2023.O ve ra ll,Europ e s sola r ma rke t is p oise d for growth,d rive n b y le gisla tive initia tive s,e ne rgy tra nsition p la ns,a nd th e d e sire for e ne rgy ind e p e nd e nc e f

271、rom R ussia n ga s.De sp ite fa c ing c h a lle nge s suc h a s p e rmits,grid c a p a c ity,a nd skills sh orta ge s,Europ e will re ma in a ma j or p la ye r on th e glob a l sola r ma p in 2023 a nd b e yond.T h e Ame r i c a s ma rke t sh a re will re ma in sta b le a t 17%in 2023,a llowing th e

272、 c ontine nt to ke e p its p osition a s th e th ird la rge st re gion for sola r insta lla tions,a t 58.5 GW.T h e ma in d riving forc e b e h ind sola r a d op tion in th e Ame ric a s is th e U nite d S ta te s,wh ic h is e xp e c te d to h old a 60%sh a re in 2023,up from 53%in 2022.T h e p a ss

273、ing of th e I nfla tion R e d uc tion Ac t(I R A)in August 2022 ma nife sts th e Bid e n Ad ministra tions stra te gy to turn th e U S into a glob a l c le a n e ne rgy p owe r h ouse.T h e re c e nt le gisla tion ra ise d th e inve stme nt ta x c re d it(I T C),wh ic h se rve s a s th e p rima ry i

274、nve stme nt me c h a nism for sola r p roj e c ts in th e c ountry,from 26%to 30%for b oth c omme rc ia l a nd re sid e ntia l initia tive s a nd will re ma in in e ffe c t until th e e nd of 2032.T h a t will p rovid e th e b a sis to turn th e sub sta ntia l d e ve lop me nt p ip e line of utility

275、-sc a le p roj e c ts into re a l p owe r p la nts,wh ile th e rooftop se c tor will c ontinue to th rive,e ve n if d isc ussion a b out ne t me te ring mod ific a tion migh t p ose c h a lle nge s.T h e le gisla tion is a lso a iming to sp a rk a ne w c h a p te r in sola r ma nufa c turing via b o

276、th sup p ort on th e Ca p e x a nd Op e x sid e.Following th e I R A a nnounc e me nt in August 2022,la rge inve stme nts in ne w fa c torie s h a ve b e e n a nnounc e d from d ome stic c omp a nie s b ut a lso from sola r te c h nology le a d e rs in Europ e,K ore a,a nd Ch ina,a mong oth e rs.Fur

277、th e rmore,a p re viously signific a nt sourc e of unc e rta inty for sola r growth h a s now b e c ome le ss c ritic a l.L a st ye a r,th e U S De p a rtme nt of Comme rc e (DOC)s inve stiga tion into th e p ote ntia l imp osition of a nti-c irc umve ntion ta riffs on c rysta lline silic on P V mod

278、 ule s a nd c e lls from Ca mb od ia,Ma la ysia,T h a ila nd,a nd V ie tna m p ut a que stion ma rk on future P V d e p loyme nt ra te s.H owe ve r,in J une 2022,P re sid e nt 1 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-P rosp e c ts 2023-2027/c ontinue dGlob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202

279、7307.5 MW,P f a f f e n we i le r,Ba d e n-Wr tte mb e r g,Ge r ma n y.Ba yWa r.e.Bid e n introd uc e d a ta riff e xe mp tion for two ye a rs on sola r mod ule s ma nufa c ture d in th e se c ountrie s.T h is me a sure is a ime d to sup p ort sola r insta lle rs until sub sta ntia l d ome stic ma n

280、ufa c turing c a p a c itie s a re re a d y to sup p ort loc a l d e ma nd.Wh ile th e ta riff e xe mp tion h a s b e e n re c e ntly c onfirme d b y th e Wh ite H ouse a nd will re ma in in p la c e until J une 2024,oth e r p olic y a nd tra d e issue s a re still c a using h e a d a c h e s to sol

281、a r d e ve lop e rs in th e U S.T h e imp le me nta tion of a With h old R e le a se Ord e r(WR O)in J une 2021 e mp owe rs U S Customs a nd Bord e r P rote c tion to d e ta in sola r mod ule imp orts from Ch ina b a se d on forc e d la b our a lle ga tions.Missing a d ministra tiona l p roc e d ure

282、 s h a ve le d to la rge volume s of sola r mod ule s b e ing loc ke d in wa re h ouse s,wh ile mod ule imp orts from Ch ine se le a d ing sup p lie rs h a ve b e e n re d uc e d to ve ry sma ll a mounts a s c omp a nie s sh y a wa y from th e imp ort risks.De sp ite th e se ob sta c le s,th e U nit

283、e d S ta te s a re p rob a b ly th e world s most a ttra c tive loc a tion for sola r inve stme nts tod a y;th e I R A is a h istoric a l p ie c e of le gisla tion in th e c ountrys c le a n e ne rgy p olic y,sup p orting b oth th e d ownstre a m a nd up stre a m sola r se c tor,inc lud ing b a la n

284、c e of syste m ma nufa c ture rs.Our Me d ium S c e na rio p re d ic ts 60%growth in sola r c a p a c ity to 34.9 GW th is ye a r,wh ile a c knowle d ging th e d iffic ultie s fa c e d mostly b y th e WR O,wh ic h is a c c ounte d for in our L ow S c e na rio with a p roj e c te d c a p a c ity of 2

285、7.9 GW.I n Br a zi l,th e se c ond most imp orta nt ma rke t in th e Ame ric a s,th e outlook for th is ye a r a p p e a rs some wh a t le ss p romising th a n la st ye a r.Bra zil still b e ne fits from a n e sta b lish e d a nd re la tive ly c onsiste nt p owe r te nd e r sc h e me a nd th e re is

286、 a ra p id ly growing c orp ora te sola r ma rke t with out sub sid ie s.N e ve rth e le ss,sta rting from 2023,mod ific a tions h a ve b e e n ma d e to th e te rms of th e ve ry luc ra tive ne t-me te ring p rogra m for syste ms up to 5 MW.T h e se c h a nge s,wh ic h e nc omp a ss a p rogre ssive

287、 fe e for using th e grid wh e n e le c tric ity is inj e c te d,le d to run for th e mone y in 2022.As a re sult,a fte r growing b y 99%la st ye a r,th e Bra zilia n ma rke t is not fore se e n to grow furth e r in 2023-a t 10.6 GW,h owe ve r,it will like ly sta y a t th e p re vious ye a rs h igh

288、le ve l,a c c ounting for 18%of th e Ame ric a n c ontine nt.On a le ss p ositive line,Me xi c o,a noth e r long-sta nd ing GW-le ve l sola r ma rke t in th e Ame ric a s,th ough a muc h lowe r le ve l,c ontinue s to e nc ounte r c h a lle nge s in its p olitic a l e nvironme nt for re ne wa b le e

289、ne rgy d e p loyme nt.Conse que ntly,sola r insta lla tions in Me xic o a re e xp e c te d to sligh tly d e c line b y 8%to 1.1 GW in 2023.On th e oth e r h a nd,Ch i le is b e c oming inc re a singly a ke y p la ye r in th e re gion,with ove r 1.8 GW insta lle d in 2022 a nd strong growth e xp e c

290、ta tions of 38%to 2.5 GW in 2023.T h e S outh Ame ric a n c ountry,now th e th ird la rge st in th e re gion,will a c c ount for 4%of th e ma rke t in 2023.T h e na tion p osse sse s one of th e most a b und a nt sola r irra d ia tions glob a lly:its north e rn re gion,c h a ra c te rise d b y e le

291、va te d a ltitud e,fre que nt a b se nc e of c loud s,a nd c omp a ra tive ly low le ve ls of ozone a nd wa te r va p or,sta nd s a s one of th e p rime loc a tions on th e p la ne t for p h otovolta ic s.N one th e le ss,th e c ountrys la c k of tra nsmission line s p ose s a c h a lle nge to sola

292、r d e p loyme nt in th e mid-run.T h e inc re a se in insta lla tions in 2022 d id tra nsla te into a ma rke t sh a re ga in for Mi d d le E a st a n d Af r i c a (ME A),from 2.8%to 3.5%.T h e situa tion is e xp e c te d to b e simila r th is ye a r.With th e a d d ition of 17.1 GW,th e re gion will

293、 e xp e rie nc e a n imp re ssive growth ra te of 106%,la rge ly surp a ssing th e re c ord le ve ls a c h ie ve d in 2019.Ac c ord ing to our Me d ium S c e na rio,th e MEA re gion is p roj e c te d to e xp a nd b y 1.5 p e rc e nta ge p oints,re a c h ing a glob a l ma rke t sh a re of 5%.T h is g

294、rowth will b e p rima rily d rive n b y th e U nite d Ara b Emira te s(U AE)a nd S outh Afric a.Wh ile th e la tte r wa s a lre a d y a GW ma rke t in 2022 with th e d e p loyme nt of se ve ra l c orp ora te p roc ure me nt p roj e c ts,th e U AE wa s foc use d on b ringing its 2 GW Al Dh a fra p ro

295、j e c t online th is ye a r.T h e la st p a ne ls h a ve b e e n insta lle d in Ap ril 2023 a nd th e p roj e c t will b e c ommissione d th is ye a r,a h e a d of th e up c oming COP 28 e ve nt in th e c ountry.A ne w a d d ition on our GW-sc a le ra d a r in 2022,I sra e l will ve ry like ly c ont

296、inue its up wa rd tre nd in 2023.N ume rous c ountrie s in th e re gion,a ll b le sse d with ve ry fa voura b le irra d ia tion c ond itions,a re inc re a singly re c ognising th e c ost a d va nta ge s,b usine ss a nd e ne rgy se c urity p ote ntia l of sola r p owe r,le a d ing to a n up surge in

297、sola r a c tivitie s th rough out th e a re a.Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202731G lob a l S ola r Ma r k e t D e ve lopme n ts 2 02 4 to 2 02 7 T h e mid-te rm glob a l e c onomic outlook is unc e rta in a nd h e a vily d e p e nd e nt on e xte nt of th e fina nc ia l se c tor

298、 turmoil,th e le ve l of infla tion,a nd th e unfold ing of th e c onflic t in U kra ine.N ot only p re d ic ts th e I nte rna tiona l Mone ta ry Fund (I MF)in its Ap ril re le a se d World Ec onomic Outlook a slowd own in glob a l growth for th is ye a r,wh ic h is sup p ose d to d rop from 3.4%in

299、2022 to 2.8%in 2023,a nd in a d va nc e d e c onomie s fa ll from 2.7%to 1.3%,a nd p ote ntia lly e ve n b e low 1%in th e sa me p e riod;it outline s a “roc ky re c ove ry”a fte r 3 ye a rs of COV I D-19,p roj e c ting ve ry little growth for 2024 up to 3%in a ve ra ge world wid e,a nd 0.1%p oints

300、in a d va nc e d e c onomie s.Wh ile glob a l h e a d line infla tion is b e lie ve d to fa ll from 8.7%to 7.0%a s a re sult of lowe r c ommod ity p ric e s,th e I MF se e s th e und e rlying c ore infla tion to d e c line slowe r,a nd mostly unlike ly to re turn to ta rge t b e fore 2025.De sp ite

301、th e se e c onomic c h a lle nge s,a nd a s we c a n a lre a d y e xp e rie nc e in 2023,th e re will b e signific a nt d e ma nd for sola r P V p owe r in th e c oming ye a rs th a nks to strong p rod uc t p ric e d e c re a se s a nd th e multip le b e ne fits th e te c h nology offe rs.As th e c

302、lima te e me rge nc y re ma ins on th e ra d a r of gove rnme nts,a ga in a nd a ga in re mind e d th rough c lima te d isa ste r e ve nts,e ne rgy se c urity is a fa irly ne w a rgume nt to sup p ort th e sola r c a se.Both p rioritie s we re re fle c te d in th e c ommitme nt of th e G7 d uring th

303、 e ir summit in Ap ril 2023 in J a p a n,wh e n th e group of 7 le a d ing ind ustria l na tions a gre e d to a d d c omb ine d sola r c a p a c ity of more th a n 1 T W b y 2030,a long with 150 GW offsh ore wind.Comp a re d to th e p re vious GMO,sola r P V fore c a sts for th e ye a rs from 2024 o

304、nwa rd s h a ve b e e n nota b ly inc re a se d.T h e ma rke t in th e se ye a rs is e xp e c te d to c ontinue e xp a nd ing in th e low two-d igit ra nge,a fte r th e e xtra ord ina ry b oost th a t took p la c e in 2022 a nd 2023.De ma nd will b e sup p orte d b y th e ongoing giga ntic e xp a ns

305、ion of sola r p rod uc tion c a p a c itie s a long th e wh ole va lue c h a in,with e sta b lish e d ma nufa c ture rs inve sting h e a vily in a d d itiona l c a p a c itie s a nd ma ny ne w p la ye rs e nte ring th e ma rke t.As th e e mp h a sis on loc a l p rod uc tion h ub s h a s grown in lig

306、h t of glob a l tra d e fric tions a nd th e inc re a sing re c ognition of sola r a s a c ruc ia l te c h nology for e ne rgy ind e p e nd e nc e,th e ma j ority of th e le a d ing Ch ine se c omp a nie s h a ve a lre a d y a nnounc e d to e xp a nd a b roa d.T h e Me d i um S c e n a r i o pr oj e

307、 c ts th e glob a l sola r ma r k e t to r e a c h th e 4 00 G W mi le ston e i n 2 02 4.T h i s r e pr e se n ts a 17%gr owth r a te c ompa r e d to th e 3 4 1 G W to b e a d d e d i n 2 02 3.Be twe e n 2024 a nd 2027,th e world s top th re e sola r ma rke ts,Ch ina,th e U nite d S ta te s,a nd I n

308、d ia,will a c c ount for 51-57%of glob a l sola r d e ma nd,d e c lining from th e 58%p roj e c te d in 2023.Ea c h of th e se c ountrie s is e xp e c te d to insta ll more th a n 20 GW in 2024,with Ch ina le a d ing a t 161 GW,followe d b y th e U S A a t 42.1 GW,a nd I nd ia a t 24.5 GW.I n 2027,t

309、h e se th re e c ountrie s a re fore c a ste d to re a c h a c omb ine d insta lla tion c a p a c ity of 313 GW,with Ch ina b e ing th e only c ountry surp a ssing th e a nnua l insta lla tion le ve l of 200 GW,th e U S e xc e e d ing 60 GW,a nd I nd ia re ma ining sligh tly b e low 40 GW.Ge rma ny

310、is th e only oth e r c ountry glob a lly insta lling more th a n 20 GW in 2026,c lose ly followe d b y S p a in a t 18.1 GW.T h e Ch ine se gove rnme nts sola r stra te gy for th e ma j ority of th e GMO fore c a st p e riod until 2027 is b a se d on its 14th FY P (2021-2025).T h is Five-Y e a r P l

311、a n a ims for 50%growth in re ne wa b le e ne rgy ge ne ra tion-from 2.2 trillion kWh in 2020 to 3.3 trillion kWh in 2025,strive s for a 2025 re ne wa b le e le c tric ity c onsump tion sh a re of 33%,up from 28.8%in 2020,a nd ta rge ts ove r 50%of Ch ina s inc re me nta l e le c tric ity a nd e ne

312、rgy c onsump tion to b e sourc e d from re ne wa b le s b e twe e n 2021 a nd 2025.T h e Me d ium S c e na rio a ntic ip a te s th a t th e Ch ine se P V ma rke t will grow to 170 GW in 2025,re a c h 189 GW in 2026,a nd furth e r inc re a se d e ma nd to 211 GW in 2027.R e ga rd le ss of th e ongoin

313、g d isc ussions surround ing imp ort ta riffs a nd th e WR O,th e U nite d S ta te s is p oise d to c ontinue its sola r growth tra j e c tory in th e c oming ye a rs.T h e mome ntum th a t th e I R A is b uild ing for c le a n e ne rgy e xp a nsion is ma ssive a nd th e p rolonga tion of th e I nve

314、 stme nt T a x Cre d it until 2032 will tra nsform th e c ountrys future e ne rgy d e ve lop me nt.Ac c ord ing to our Me d ium S c e na rio,th e U S is p roj e c te d to grow from 42.1 GW in 2024 to 63.5 GW in 2027.Eve n in our worst-c a se sc e na rio,we still a ntic ip a te a growth to 41.3 GW b

315、y 2027,a nd up to 85.7 GW in th e most op timistic c a se.I nd ia fa c e d a se tb a c k in missing its 100 GW(AC)N a tiona l T a rge t b y th e e nd of 2022.H owe ve r,in th e up c oming ye a rs,I nd ia will b e fully foc use d on me e ting its 500 GW of insta lle d re ne wa b le c a p a c ity,out

316、of wh ic h 280 GW a re from sola r p owe r.We p re d ic t th a t 1 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-P rosp e c ts 2023-2027/c ontinue dGlob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202732Glob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202733L e ss th a n a d e c a d e si n c e i t sur pa sse

317、 d th e 100 G W mi le ston e i n 2 012,th e wor ld s tota l ope r a ti n g on-gr i d sola r c a pa c i ty h a s e xc e e d e d 1 T W i n e a r ly Q2/2 02 2.Ac c or d i n g to our Me d i um S c e n a r i o,i t i s pr oj e c te d to c omf or ta b ly c r oss th e 2 T W la n d ma r k i n e a r ly 2 02 5

318、 (F i g.18).T h e c urre nt p e riod of strong p ric e s re d uc tion for ra w ma te ria ls a nd P V p rod uc ts will b oost d e ma nd for sola r p owe r.Conc e rns a b out e ne rgy se c urity re sulting from th e R ussia n wa r a ga inst U kra ine will furth e r e xp e d ite th e glob a l sh ift to

319、wa rd s sola r e ne rgy.T h e mile stone s for glob a l insta lle d P V ge ne ra tion c a p a c ity ove r th e ne xt five ye a rs a re p roj e c te d a s follows:1.5 T W in 2023,1.9 T W in 2024,2.4 T W in 2025,2.9 T W in 2026,a nd 3.5 T W in 2027.U nd e r op tima l c ond itions,th e P V fle e t c ou

320、ld p a ss th e 2 T W le ve l a lre a d y in 2024,a nd re a c h up to 3.9 T W b y 2027.U nd e r our Me d ium a nd H igh S c e na rios,th e glob a l op e ra ting sola r P V fle e t a lmost d oub le s e ve ry 3 ye a rs.T h e top 20 ma rke ts with th e h igh e st 5-ye a r insta lla tion p ote ntia l onl

321、y se e sma ll c h a nge s c omp a re d to th e p re vious e d ition(se e Fig.19).T h e top four ma rke ts,na me ly Ch ina,th e U S,I nd ia,a nd Ge rma ny,re ma in in th e sa me ord e r,wh ile th e a b solute a d d itions a re sub sta ntia lly h igh e r.I t is note worth y th a t in th e Me d ium S c

322、 e na rio,th e top 3 c ountrie s a re still th e only one s e xp e c te d to insta ll ove r 100 GW e a c h.Ch ina is le a d ing a t 873 GW(+367 GW c omp a re d to 2022 e d ition),followe d b y th e U S a t 252 GW(+63 I nd ia will a d d 24.5 GW in 2024 a nd 28.4 GW in 2025 a nd up to 38.3 GW in 2027.

323、Wh ile th e utility-sc a le se c tor will c ontinue to b e th e p rima ry d rive r of sola r growth in I nd ia,th e re is a n e xp e c ta tion th a t th e d istrib ute d se gme nt,wh ic h p la ye d th e ke y role in fa lling sh ort of th e 2022 ta rge t,will tra nsition a wa y from its nic h e sta t

324、us in th e me d ium to long-te rm.L ook i n g a h e a d f r om 2 02 4 to 2 02 7,th e r e wi ll b e a r e d i str i b uti on of ma r k e t sh a r e s a mon g d i f f e r e n t r e gi on s.Afte r ga ining signific a nt ma rke t sh a re in 2023 re a c h ing 41%,Ch ina is e xp e c te d to re ve rt to it

325、s 2020 le ve l with a 34%a nnua l insta lla tion sh a re in 2027.T h e Ame ric a s will e xp e rie nc e a sligh t d e c line,d rop p ing from 17%in 2023 to 16%in 2027.On th e oth e r h a nd,AP AC e xc lud ing Ch ina,MEA,a nd Europ e a re a ll e xp e c te d to ga in some ma rke t sh a re s in th e 20

326、23-2027 p e riod.T h e AP AC re gion will e xp e rie nc e th e la rge st ga in,growing from 18%to 22%,re fle c ting th e d e ve lop me nt of sola r in ma ny c ountrie s outsid e Ch ina.T h e MEA re gion sh a ll ga in 3 p e rc e nta ge p oints from 5%to 8%d rive n b y ma j or p roj e c ts in th e Mid

327、 d le Ea st a nd S a ud i Ara b ia s c ommitme nt to a c h ie ving its 40 GW b y 2030 ta rge t.Europ e s growth will re ly on th e Europ e a n U nions e fforts to e nh a nc e its 2030 re ne wa b le ta rge ts a nd furth e r re d uc e d e p e nd e nc e on R ussia n e ne rgy imp orts th rough th e R EP

328、 owe rEU p la n.Europ e is e xp e c te d to re a c h a 19%sh a re of glob a l sola r,b y a d d ing 120 GW in 2027.S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023F I GUR E 18 GL OBAL T OT AL S OL AR P V MAR K ET S CENAR I OS 2023-2027 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500GWHistorical dataLow ScenarioHigh Scenar

329、ioMedium Scenario202220232024202520262027201820192020202126%29%24%22%21%3,5322,3812,9151,1771,9191,518GW),a nd I nd ia a t 145 GW(+29 GW).T h e numb e r of c ountrie s e xp e c te d to a d d a t le a st 20 GW in th e ne xt five ye a rs is th e sa me a s la st ye a r:12,with I ta ly p ush ing S outh

330、K ore a out of th e list.H owe ve r,a c c ord ing to th e Me d ium S c e na rio,a ll th e top 20 ma rke ts a re p roj e c te d to insta ll a t le a st 10 GW e a c h from 2023 to 2027.An inc re a se from la st ye a r wh e n only 17 ma rke ts we re a ntic ip a te d to re a c h th a t 1 G l o b a l s o

331、 l a r ma r k e t-P rosp e c ts 2023-2027/c ontinue dGlob a l Ma rke t Outlook For S ola r P owe r 2023-202734F I GUR E 19 T OP 20 MAR K ET S S OL AR P V ADDI T I ONS 2023-2027Saudi ArabiaUKTrkiye GreeceChileUAESouth KoreaTaiwanFranceNetherlandsItalyPolandJapanAustraliaBrazilSpainGermanyIndiaUSChina

332、GW02004006008001,0001,200High ScenarioMedium ScenarioLow Scenario1,008315190111915956453847283719221820181716188732521458874444039292825251716151414141312764179112746033313222232021111211101010109 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023th re sh old.T h e ra nge of ne w c a p a c ity a d d itions va rie s wid

333、e ly with in th is group,from 873 GW in Ch ina to 12 GW in S a ud i Ara b ia,wh ic h is a ga in signific a ntly h igh e r th a n th e p re vious ye a rs e d ition.T h e me mb e rs of th e top 20 list a re ve ry simila r to la st ye a rs,with only one nota b le sub stitution:th e U K is c oming b a c k a t th e 19th p osition,re p la c ing V ie tna m,wh ic h stood a t th e 16th p osition la st ye a