1、So lar Po wer s Heat 2023H ow S ol a r P V e mpowe r s house hol d s to tur n d own f ossi l g a s a nd sa ve on e ne r g y b i l l sSolarPower Europe Leading t he Energy Transit ion So lar Po wer Eu r o p e is a member-led as s o ciat io n t hat aims t o ens u r e t hat mo r e ener gy is gener at e

2、d by s o lar t han any o t her ener gy s o u r ce by 2030.www.solarpowereurope.orgJoin 2 7 0+InfluenceIntelligenceNetworkDiscountsVisibilityEu ropemembersSolarPowerS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 3Fo r ewo r dWelcome t o Solar Power Eu r op es Solar Power s Heat Rep or t 2023!L e t me c ong r a tul

3、a te e ve r yone i n the sol a r P V se c tor:Y ou a r e ve r y a c ti ve i n a n i nd ustr y tha t i s b oomi ng wor l d wi d e,a nd a l so i n Eur ope.And tha t i s a ve r y i mpor ta nt thi ng.We wi l l ne e d muc h mor e sol a r e ne r g y to ma k e us i nd e pe nd e nt of f ossi l e ne r g y i

4、mpor ts.We ne e d sol a r e ne r g y f or our c l i ma te a s we l l a s f or the sove r e i g nty of Eur ope.Mor e ove r,wi th the R EP owe r EU sol a r i nsta l l a ti on ta r g e t,sol a r powe r a l one wi l l of f e r ove r 1 mi l l i on l oc a l j ob s i n the Eur ope a n U ni on i n 2030.I ha

5、 ve b e e n Austr i a n F e d e r a l Mi ni ste r of Cl i ma te Ac ti on si nc e e a r l y 2020 a nd ha ve se t out on a n a mb i ti ous pa th f or our c ountr y.I i ni ti a te d a “Mi l l i on R oof P r og r a mme”wi th the g oa l to g e t sol a r pa ne l s on one mi l l i on r oof s i n our c ount

6、r y.And so f a r we a r e not onl y on tr a c k,b ut a r e e xc e e d i ng our i nte r i m g oa l s.S i nc e I took of f i c e thr e e ye a r s a g o,we ha ve b ui l t a s ma ny P V pl a nts a s i n the e nti r e pr e vi ous 20 ye a r s b e f or e 2020.I n the l a st ye a r a l one,1,300 Me g a wa t

7、t of P V c a pa c i ty wa s b ui l t,l i f ti ng Austr i a f or the f i r st ti me to a n a nnua l G i g a wa tt-sc a l e P V ma r k e t.We e na b l e d the c r e a ti on of d e c e ntr a l i se d r e ne wa b l e e ne r g y c ommuni ti e s.Mor e tha n 200 e ne r g y c ommuni ti e s ha ve b e e n c r

8、 e a te d so f a r a nd we e xpe c t a r a pi d g r owth i n the ne xt ye a r s.I ha ve pr opose d a r e ne wa b l e he a ti ng l a w.We wi l l b a n g a s b oi l e r s i n ne w b ui l d i ng s a nd ste p b y ste p e xc ha ng e e xi sti ng ol d oi l a nd g a s b oi l e r s b y 2035 a nd 2040,r e spe

9、 c ti ve l y.We c r e a te d a si mpl e sub si d y syste m f or thi s:7,500 e ur os f or a l l those who wa nt to c ha ng e to r e ne wa b l e he a t i n a d d i ti on to the f i na nc i a l suppor t b y the r e g i ons i n Austr i a.I se t up a sub si d y sc he me i n whi c h house hol d s i n the

10、l owe st 20 pe r c e nt of i nc ome a r e sub si d i ze d b y up to 100 pe r c e nt of the c ost of a ne w he a t pump or a d i str i c t he a ti ng c onne c ti on.I ts of utmost i mpor ta nc e,tha t we l e a ve nob od y b e hi nd.Eve r yone shoul d b e a b l e to pa r ti c i pa te i n thi s e ne r

11、g y tr a nsi ti on.I n Austr i a,i n tota l ove r 400 mi l l i on Eur os we r e use d i n 2022 to sub si d i ze the b oi l e r r e pl a c e me nt,a nd a si mi l a r a mount,a l most 400 mi l l i on Eur os f or sol a r P V i nsta l l a ti ons.Be c a use sol a r the r ma l a nd P V i n c omb i na ti o

12、n wi th he a t pumps c a n pl a y a n i mpor ta nt r ol e i n d e c a r b oni si ng our b ui l d i ng se c tor.T hi s i s a l so r e f l e c te d i n thi s ne w S ol a r P owe r s H e a t-R e por t:S ol a r e ne r g y not onl y i s a susta i na b l e f or m of e ne r g y,i t a l so c r e a te s ma n

13、y l oc a l we l l-pa i d j ob s,a nd he l ps f a mi l i e s to r e d uc e the i r e ne r g y b i l l s a nd b e l e ss e f f e c te d b y the ne xt pr i c e hi k e or g l ob a l e ne r g y c r i si s.T hi s i s the pa th we a r e g oi ng:e na b l i ng house hol d s to i nve st i n sol a r-powe r e d

14、 e l e c tr i f i e d he a t.T he tr a nsi ti on i s r i g ht the r e a nd tog e the r we c a n r e vol uti oni se our e ne r g y tr a nsi ti on.Be c a use one thi ng i s c l e a r,the g a s c r i si s i s not ove r ye t a nd the c l i ma te c r i si s ha s j ust sta r te d.L e ts a c c e l e r a te

15、 a nd f ul l y e mb r a c e the pote nti a l of sol a r i n thi s tr a nsi ti on,b oth f or d e c a r b oni zi ng e l e c tr i c i ty a nd the he a ti ng se c tor.Enj oy r e a d i ng the r e por t,LEONORE GEWESSLER F e d e r a l Mi ni ste r f or Cl i ma te Ac ti on,Envi r onme nt,Ene r g y,Mob i l i

16、 ty,I nnova ti on a nd T e c hnol og y of Austr i aSo lar Po wer s Heat 2023 4Table of contentsAbstract 5 1 Introduction 6 2 Key Results 8 2.1.Savings in 2022 8 2.2.Long-term savings 18 2.3.Returns on new investments 28 Policy recommendations 3 0 Annex 35 Project manager:Michael Schmela,So lar Po we

17、r Eu r o p e.Authors:Dr ies Acke,Michael Schmela,Jo nat han Go r r emans,Chr is t o p he Lit s,Jan Os enber g,So lar Po wer Eu r o p e;Michael Clau s ner,Ener gy Br ainp o o l.Energy modelling:Michael Clau s ner,Felix Tr iebe,Ener gy Br ainp o o l.Tex t editing:Th r s e O Do no ghu e,Bet hany Meban,

18、So lar Po wer Eu r o p e.Contributors:It alia So lar e,Unin Es p a o la Fo t o v o lt aica(UNEF).Please cite as:So lar Po wer Eu r o p e(2023):Solar Heat Report-How Solar PV empowers households to turn down fossil gas and save on energy bills.Published:Mar ch 2023.ISBN:978 9464669022.Thanks to our s

19、ponser members:Design:Onehemis p her e,Sweden.co nt act o nehemis p her e.s e Front cov er image:Vir r age Images/Shu t t er s t o ck Contact:info s o lar p o wer eu r o p e.o r g.Disclaimer:This r ep o r t has been p r ep ar ed by So lar Po wer Eu r o p e.It is being fu r nis hed t o t he r ecip ie

20、nt s fo r gener al info r mat io n o nly.No t hing in it s ho u ld be int er p r et ed as an o ffer o r r eco mmendat io n o f any p r o du ct s,s er v ices o r financial p r o du ct s.This r ep o r t do es no t co ns t it u t e t echnical,inv es t ment,legal,t ax o r any o t her adv ice.Recip ient

21、s s ho u ld co ns u lt wit h t heir o wn t echnical,financial,legal,t ax o r o t her adv is o r s as needed.This r ep o r t is bas ed o n s o u r ces believ ed t o be accu r at e.Ho wev er,So lar Po wer Eu r o p e do es no t war r ant t he accu r acy o r co mp let enes s o f any info r mat io n co n

22、t ained in t his r ep o r t.So lar Po wer Eu r o p e as s u mes no o bligat io n t o u p dat e any info r mat io n co nt ained her ein.So lar Po wer Eu r o p e will no t be held liable fo r any dir ect o r indir ect damage incu r r ed by t he u s e o f t he info r mat io n p r o v ided and will no t

23、 p r o v ide any indemnit ies.Unles s o t her wis e s t at ed,t he co p y r ight and o t her int ellect u al p r o p er t y r ight s o f mar ket int elligence dat a and r es o u r ces p r o v ided ar e o wned by So lar Po wer Eu r o p e.S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 5Abstr act T hi s r e por t e x

24、a mi ne s the r e si d e nti a l se c tor,a nd f oc use s on thr e e Eur ope a n ma r k e ts whe r e f ossi l g a s pl a ys a d omi na nt r ol e i n home he a ti ng:G e r ma ny,S pa i n,a nd I ta l y.S pe c i f i c a l l y,the r e por t a sse sse s the r ol e of sol a r P V i n c omb i na ti on wi t

25、h e l e c tr i c i ty-b a se d he a ti ng sol uti ons i n e mpowe r i ng house hol d s to r e d uc e g a s use,whi l e sa vi ng on e l e c tr i c i ty a nd he a ti ng b i l l s.T he r e por t f i nd s tha t me d i um-si ze d r e si d e nti a l sol a r P V owne r s ha ve e nj oye d sub sta nti a l sa

26、 vi ng s on the i r e ne r g y b i l l s i n 2022(sa vi ng s up to 64%),e spe c i a l l y i n c omb i na ti on wi th a he a t pump(sa vi ng s up to 8 4%).T he se house hol d s wi l l c onti nue to b e ne f i t f r om the i r i nve stme nt i n the c omi ng ye a r s i n a l l sc e na r i os,e ve n a s

27、 g a s pr i c e s sta b i l i se a t l owe r l e ve l s c ompa r e d to 2022(e ve n a t pr e-c r i si s pr i c e l e ve l s of 20 EU R/MWh).H owe ve r,g i ve n the pol i ti c a l i mpe r a ti ve to r a pi d l y r e d uc e f ossi l g a s d e ma nd,the r e por t a l so f i nd s tha t pol i c yma k e r

28、 s ne e d to ta k e d e c i si ve a c ti on now i f the y a r e to pr omote the b e ne f i ts of g a s-f r e e home s to the wi d e r popul a ti on.T he f ol l owi ng f i ve pol i c y me a sur e s a r e e sse nti a l to b r i ng d own pa yb a c k ti me s f or ne w sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps,f r o

29、m a r ound 20 ye a r s tod a y,to a r ound 10 ye a r s:1.Level t he p lay ing field by immediat ely ending all financing s u p p or t for r es ident ial gas u s e,and imp lement ing a car bon p r ice floor.G ove r nme nts c oul d i ntr od uc e c ompe nsa ti on sc he me s to of f se t hi g he r c ost

30、s f or l ow-i nc ome house hol d s.2.Offer loans at low-int er es t r at es as r is ing int er es t r at es lead t o exp onent ial incr eas es in p ay back t imes.Ce ntr a l b a nk s c oul d i ssue l ow-i nte r e st r a te pr od uc ts spe c i f i c a l l y f or d e f l a ti ona r y te c hnol og i e

31、s l i k e sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps.3.Incr eas e CAPEX s u p p or t for combined inves t ment s int o s olar PV and heat p u mp ins t allat ions.I n a n i nf l a ti ona r y e nvi r onme nt wi th hi g h i nte r e st r a te s a nd hi g h l a b or c osts,CAP EX suppor t i s c r uc i a l to r e d uc

32、 e pa yb a c k ti me s,i n pa r ti c ul a r f or he a t pumps b ut a l so f or i nte g r a te d sol a r P V +he a t pump syste ms.4.Pr omot e collect ive s elf-cons u mp t ion,b e g i nni ng i n the upc omi ng r e vi si on of Eur ope a n El e c tr i c i ty Ma r k e t De si g n.5.Addr es s t he ins t

33、 aller and elect r ician s kills s hor t ages b y e sta b l i shi ng tr a i ni ng a nd upsk i l l i ng pr og r a ms.T he se shor ta g e s a r e i nc r e a si ng pr i c e s f or house hol d s,a nd sl ow d own sol a r P V a nd he a t pump d e pl oyme nt.T he r e por t f i nd s tha t sol a r P V i s a

34、k e y c ompone nt f or ma k i ng g a s-f r e e home s a f f or d a b l e to a l l Eur ope a ns.S ol a r P V a nd he a t pump l oa d pr of i l e s ma tc h sur pr i si ng l y we l l thr oug hout the ye a r,e spe c i a l l y i n c omb i na ti on wi th a wa te r b uf f e r ta nk.T hi s c omb i na ti on

35、r e d uc e s house hol d s e ne r g y b i l l s,whi l e a l so b e ne f i ti ng the e ne r g y syste m a s a whol e;i t tr a nsf e r s e l e c tr i c i ty d e ma nd i nto hour s of hi g h r e ne wa b l e e ne r g y pr od uc ti on.S ol a r P V sub sta nti a l l y i mpr ove s the b usi ne ss c a se f

36、or he a t pump syste ms,wi th sa vi ng s mor e tha n tr i pl i ng c ompa r e d to a he a t pump a l one.L ook i ng a t the G e r ma n e xa mpl e,tog e the r,the he a t pump+sol a r P V d r e a m te a m r e d uc e s e ne r g y b i l l s b y a r ound 62%c ompa r e d to a f ossi l g a s r e si d e nti

37、a l he a ti ng syste m.Eu r op e is exp er iencing an u np r ecedent ed ener gy cr is is,dr iven by high fos s il gas p r ices,following Ru s s ias invas ion of Ukr aine,and t he weap onis at ion of fos s il gas s u p p lies t o Eu r op e.Conse que ntl y,EU Me mb e r S ta te s ha ve spe nt a r ound

38、657 b i l l i on EU R shi e l d i ng c onsume r s f r om r i si ng e ne r g y c osts si nc e the b e g i nni ng of the e ne r g y c r i si s.1 G a s pr i c e s ha ve d e c r e a se d r e c e ntl y,b e c a use of Eur ope a n a c ti on a nd sol i d a r i ty.H owe ve r,g a s i mpor t pr i c e s a r e s

39、ti l l hi g he r tha n pr e-wa r l e ve l s,a nd ma y r e tur n to hi g he r l e ve l s a g a i n i n 2023,d e pe nd i ng on we a the r pa tte r ns a nd g l ob a l e c onomi c d e ve l opme nts,e spe c i a l l y i n Asi a.I n i ts De c e mb e r 2022 r e por t,the I nte r na ti ona l Ene r g y Ag e n

40、c y ur g e d EU l e a d e r s to f ur the r a c c e l e r a te the e ne r g y tr a nsi ti on i f i t wa nts to a voi d a g a s suppl y c r unc h b y ne xt wi nte r.2 T he I EA a l so a d vi se s Eur ope to d e pl oy a t l e a st 60 G W of ne w sol a r i n 2023 to c ompe nsa te f or g a s shor tf a l

41、 l s.I n the sa me month,S ol a r P owe r Eur ope pub l i she d i ts a nnua l EU Ma r k e t Outl ook f or S ol a r P owe r 2022-2026;i ts most-l i k e l y sc e na r i o f or e se e s 54 G W of sol a r i nsta l l a ti ons thi s ye a r.3 Wi th the r i g ht f r a me wor k c ond i ti ons,the EU 27 c oul

42、 d e ve n g o b e yond the mi ni mum l e ve l s of sol a r d e pl oyme nt pr opose d b y the I EA.H owe ve r,f ossi l-f ue l c onti nue s to d omi na te he a ti ng i n the r e si d e nti a l se c tor a c r oss Eur ope;l a te st d a ta shows tha t i n 2020,na tur a l g a s i s use d f or 7 4.6%of spa

43、 c e he a ti ng,a nd 19.3%of wa te r he a ti ng i n the EU.Ad d r e ssi ng r e si d e nti a l he a ti ng i s c e ntr a l to r a pi d l y r e d uc i ng f ossi l g a s d e ma nd i n the shor t-te r m.T hi s r e por t a na l yse s the e l e c tr i f i c a ti on of he a ti ng i n the r e si d e nti a l

44、se c tor,a sse ssi ng the r ol e of sol a r P V i n e mpowe r i ng house hol d s to r e d uc e g a s use,whi l e sa vi ng on b oth e l e c tr i c i ty a nd he a ti ng e ne r g y b i l l s,a nd a nswe r i ng the f ol l owi ng que sti ons:H ow muc h d oe s sol a r P V sa ve house hol d s on e ne r g y

45、 b i l l s?H ow d oe s the c ost of sol a r P V,c omb i ne d wi th e l e c tr i c i ty-b a se d home he a ti ng,c ompa r e to g a s-b a se d home he a ti ng?Doe s the EU pol i c y f r a me wor k i nc e nti vi se house hol d s to swi tc h of f g a s,a nd i f not,wha t shoul d c ha ng e?T he most i mp

46、or ta nt ta k e a wa y of thi s a na l ysi s:sol a r P V i s a k e y c ompone nt f or a ny a f f or d a b l e g a s-f r e e home.S ol a r P V a nd he a t pump l oa d pr of i l e s ma tc h we l l ye a r-r ound,a nd i n c omb i na ti on,ma xi mi se the r e d uc ti on of c onsume r s e ne r g y b i l l

47、 s.U l ti ma te l y,thi s r e por t c a l l s on d e c i si on-ma k e r s to sub sta nti a l l y i mpr ove pol i c y f r a me wor k s to e mpowe r mor e Eur ope a ns to i nsta l l sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps,a nd sa ve on g a s c onsumpti on a nd on the i r e ne r g y b i l l s.S ol a r P owe r s

48、H e a t 2023 61https:/www.b r ue g e l.or g/d a ta se t/na ti ona l-pol i c i e s-shi e l d-c onsume r s-r i si ng-e ne r g y-pr i c e s 2https:/www.i e a.or g/r e por ts/how-to-a voi d-g a s-shor ta g e s-i n-the-e ur ope a n-uni on-i n-2023 3https:/www.sol a r powe r e ur ope.or g/i nsi g hts/ma r

49、 k e t-outl ook s/e u-ma r k e t-outl ook-f or-sol a r-powe r-2022-2026-2 In tr o du ctio n1 H a l f poi nt/S hutte r stoc kS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 7Bo x 1.Reco r d gr o wth fo r PV&HP in Eu r o p e in 2022 T he hi g h pr i c e s f or g a s a nd e l e c tr i c i ty i n 2022 l e d to pa r ti

50、c ul a r l y a ttr a c ti ve a nnua l sa vi ng s f r om sol a r P V a nd he a t pump te c hnol og i e s.Ma ny home owne r s und e r stood thi s a nd ha ve i nve ste d a t r e c or d l e ve l s i n the se te c hnol og i e s i n G e r ma ny,I ta l y,a nd S pa i n,some of the EU s l a r g e st e c onom

51、i e s a nd sol a r P V ma r k e ts,r e si d e nti a l r oof top i nsta l l a ti ons i nc r e a se d b y 9%,240%,a nd 106%ye a r-on-ye a r,whi l e he a t pump i nsta l l a ti ons i n the se c ountr i e s i nc r e a se d b y 53%,37%,a nd 21%(se e F i g.1 a nd 2).F or b oth te c hnol og i e s,2022 wa s

52、 a r e c or d g r owth ye a r a d d i ng mor e uni ts tha n e ve r b e f or e.Whe n l ook i ng a t the EU a s a whol e,the a nnua l sol a r P V ma r k e t g r e w b y 47%to 41.4 G W of a nnua l i nsta l l a ti ons i n 2022,whi l e he a t pump i nsta l l a ti ons i nc r e a se d b y 42%to r e a c h 2

53、.4 mi l l i on uni ts i n the sa me pe r i od (se e F i g.3 a nd 4).4 As c i ti ze ns ha ve b e e n se e k i ng wa ys to r e d uc e the i r e ne r g y b i l l s,a s we l l a s i nc r e a se the i r f e e l i ng of e ne r g y se c ur i ty,the numb e r s c oul d ha ve b e e n muc h hi g he r i f i nst

54、a l l e r shor ta g e s ha d not sl owe d d e pl oyme nt.5I nc l ud e s the f ol l owi ng c ountr i e s:Austr i a,Be l g i um,Cze c h R e pub l i c,De nma r k,F i nl a nd,F r a nc e,G e r ma ny,I ta l y,N e the r l a nd s,P ol a nd,P or tug a l,S we d e n,S pa i n.4Eur ope a n H e a t P ump Assoc i

55、a ti on(2023).FIGURE 1 ANNU AL R ES I DENT I AL S OL AR P V I NS T AL L AT I ONS I N GER MANY,I T AL Y,S P AI N,2021-2022 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500MW202120222,608SpainItalyGermany57%4,0904619501,7971,9503501,190FIGURE 3 ANNU AL S OL AR P V I NS T AL L AT I ONS I N EU,2021-20220510

56、15202530354045GW2021202228.147%41.4FIGURE 2 ANNU AL HEAT P UMP I NS T AL L AT I ONS I N GER MANY,I T AL Y,S P AI N,2021-2022 0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,000Number of heat pumps sold20212022SpainItalyGermany37%900,149133,671161,800154,000236,000367,920502,349655,591FIGURE 4 ANNU AL HEAT P UMP

57、I NS T AL L AT I ONS I N EU,2021-20225 0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,000Number of heat pumps sold2021202242%2,354,2771,650,865 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 82.1.So lar PV&HP in 2022:ho mes with so lar PV en jo yed su bstan tial savin gs o n their en er gy b

58、ills,esp ecially in co mbin atio n with electr icity-based heatin g techn o lo gies.T he r e por t hi g hl i g hts sa vi ng s ma d e b y G e r ma n,S pa ni sh,a nd I ta l i a n house hol d s usi ng thr e e d i f f e r e nt te c hnol og y mi xe s:sol a r P V,he a t pumps,a nd sol a r P V +he a t pump

59、s c omb i ne d.T he sa vi ng s a r e c ompa r e d to the pr i c e tha t a n a ve r a g e f a mi l y house hol d woul d pa y b y sour c i ng a l l of i ts e l e c tr i c i ty f r om the g r i d,a nd usi ng a g a s b oi l e r f or he a ti ng.A summa r y on the sa vi ng s g e ne r a te d b y e a c h te

60、 c hnol og y i n G e r ma ny,S pa i n,a nd I ta l y i n 2022 i s pr ovi d e d i n F i g.5 b e l ow.Whi l e a l l te c hnol og i e s pr ovi d e si g ni f i c a nt sa vi ng s i n a l l thr e e c ountr i e s,the c omb i na ti on of sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps r e sul te d i n the hi g he st sa vi ng

61、s of up to 8 4%,d ur i ng the e ne r g y c r i se s i n 2022(se e F i g.5).Key r esu lts2 H a l f poi nt/S hutte r stoc kHo u seho lds saved u p to 3,700 o n their en er gy bills in 2022 with so lar PV+heat p u mp sFIGURE 5 ANNU AL ENER GY BI L L S AV I NGS I N%F OR HOUS EHOL DS WI T H DI F F ER ENT

62、 P OWER&HEAT I NG T ECHNOL OGI ES I N GER MANY,S P AI N,I T AL Y I N 2022 0Savings 2022(%)GermanySpainItalyHeat pumpSolar PV+Heat pumpSolar PV10203040506070809010022%40%64%32%28%11%62%84%83%S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023S a vi ng s f or the mod e l home s we r e a s hi g h a s 3,7 66 EU R i n I ta l

63、y,f ol l owe d b y G e r ma ny,a nd S pa i n(se e F i g.6).S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 9Bo x 2.High En er gy Pr ices F or pe opl e l i vi ng i n ne w home s,a nnua l e ne r g y e xpe nse s shown i n the r e por ts r e sul ts ma y a ppe a r ve r y hi g h,i n pa r ti c ul a r f or G e r ma ny wi t

64、h ne a r l y 6,000 EU R i n 2022(se e F i g.7).T he r e f or e,i t i s i mpor ta nt to pl a c e the se f i g ur e s i n c onte xt.T hi s stud y f oc use s on the e c onomi c s of a c c e l e r a ti ng the e ne r g y tr a nsi ti on i n the e xi sti ng b ui l d i ng stoc k r a the r tha n i n ne w hou

65、se s.Ac c or d i ng l y,the mod e l l e d the r ma l d e ma nd f or spa c e a nd wa te r he a ti ng (12,000-20,000 k Wh/a)c or r e spond s to a n a ve r a g e of e xi sti ng house s usi ng a n a ve r a g e g a s b oi l e r wi th 8 5%e f f i c i e nc y.Othe r r e l e va nt a ssumpti ons i nc l ud e t

66、he a nnua l e l e c tr i c i ty d e ma nd of a ve r a g e f a mi l y home s(4,000-4,500 k Wh/a,e xc l.a i r c ond i ti oni ng),a nd a ve r a g e house hol d g a s a nd e l e c tr i c i ty pr i c e s i n 2022,whi c h a r e b a se d on the H ouse hol d Ene r g y P r i c e I nd e x(V a a sa ET T,2023).

67、Al l r e l e va nt suppor t me a sur e s a ppl yi ng to a ve r a g e s f a mi l y home s a r e i nc l ud e d (e.g.V AT c uts on g a s i n a l l thr e e c ountr i e s).Ene r g y c ost r e l i e f me a sur e s spe c i f i c a l l y ta r g e te d a t l ow-i nc ome f a mi l i e s a r e not i nc l ud e d

68、 he r e;the stud y a ssume s a n a ve r a g e f a mi l y home tha t i s not e l i g i b l e f or suc h sc he me s(e.g.S pa ni sh Bono S oc i a l d e El e c tr i c i d a d,a g ove r nme nt pr og r a mme to r e d uc e e ne r g y pove r ty).F or f ur the r b a c k g r ound on the r e por ts me thod ol

69、og y,se e pg.36.FIGURE 6 ANNU AL S AV I NGS I N EUR O OF HOUS EHOL DS WI T H DI F F ER ENT P OWER&HEAT I NG T ECHNOL OGI ES I N GER MANY,S P AI N,AND I T AL Y I N 20220Euro saved in 2022(EUR)GermanySpainItaly5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0001,2631,3522,9351,8849585063,6142,8313,766Heat pumpSola

70、r PV+Heat pumpSolar PV S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023I n a l l thr e e c ountr i e s,sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps d r a ma ti c a l l y r e d uc e d house hol d s e ne r g y e l e c tr i c i ty a nd he a ti ng e ne r g y e xpe nse s.H ouse hol d s tha t r e l i e d f ul l y on e l e c tr i c i ty f

71、r om the g r i d a nd use d g a s f or a l l of the i r he a ti ng,suf f e r e d f r om hi g h e ne r g y pr i c e c r i si s.Ave r a g e f a mi l y house hol d s tha t use d sol a r P V pl us a he a t hump we r e muc h l e ss e xpose d to the se ma r k e t pr i c e spi k e s.I n G e r ma ny,a typi

72、c a l house hol d pa i d 5,8 50 EU R wi thout P V +H P a nd onl y 2,230 EU R wi th the d ome sti c c l e a n powe r d uo(se e F i g.7).On t he elect r icit y s ide,usi ng sol a r P V r e d uc e s the tota l e ne r g y c ost b y two me a ns:f i r st,i t r e d uc e s the pur c ha se of g r i d e l e c

73、 tr i c i ty tha nk s to P V se l f-c onsumpti on a nd,se c ond,P V g e ne r a te s i nc ome f r om se l l i ng e xc e ss pr od uc ti on.T hi s r e sul te d i n muc h l owe r e l e c tr i c i ty c osts i n a l l thr e e c ountr i e s.T he ne t c osts we r e r e d uc e d to a l most ze r o i n S pa i

74、 n or non-e xi ste nt i n I ta l y,whe r e the i nc ome f r om se l l i ng e xc e ss sol a r pr od uc ti on outwe i g hs the r e si d ua l c ost f or g r i d e l e c tr i c i ty i n ti me s wi thout sol a r pr od uc ti on.T hi s i s d ue to the hi g h sol a r pr od uc ti on output i n sunny c ountr

75、i e s,e ve n thoug h the pr i c e r e c e i ve d f or sol a r P V powe r f e e d-i n i s muc h l owe r tha n the pr i c e of r e ta i l g r i d powe r.I n I ta l y a nd S pa i n,a n a ve r a g e P V si ze of 7 k W wa s c onsi d e r e d.I n Ge r ma ny,a n 8 k W syste m wa s c onsi d e r e d.On t he h

76、eat ing s ide,usi ng a he a t pump i nste a d of a g a s b oi l e r r e d uc e s the g a s b i l l to ze r o,whi l e a t the sa me ti me,i t a ug me nts g r i d e l e c tr i c i ty ne e d s,a nd the r e f or e the e l e c tr i c i ty b i l l.H owe ve r,a c omb i na ti on of sol a r P V +he a t pump

77、k e e ps the se tota l c osts l owe r tha n the pr i c e of usi ng g a s he a ti ng.T og e the r wi th a n a ve r a g e wa te r b uf f e r ta nk,on-si te sol a r pr ovi d e s a si g ni f i c a nt a mount of the powe r ne e d e d f or the he a t pump 38%i n G e r ma ny a nd 62%i n S pa i n,i n a n a

78、ve r a g e we a the r ye a r.T he he a ti ng c ost l e ve l i s pa r ti c ul a r l y l ow i n S pa i n,whe r e the sol a r sha r e i n the H P e l e c tr i c i ty mi x i s the hi g he st i n a ny c a se a nd the r e si d ua l H P e l e c tr i c i ty vol ume s ne e d e d f r om the g r i d a r e the

79、l owe st.2 Key r esu lts/c onti nue dS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 10FIGURE 7 EL ECT R I CI T Y AND HEAT I NG BI L L I N 2022 I N GER MANY,S P AI N,AND I T AL Y 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000Annual energy bill(EUR)no PV+HP:costs for grid power,gas heatingnoPV+HPnoPV+HPPV+HP:residual gridpower cos

80、tsPV+HPPV+HPNet electricity costs(incl.revenues from excess solar feed-in)Heating costs(gas/HP)GermanySpainItaly S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 11A det ailed look at all t hr ee t echnologies s olar PV,heat p u mp s,and s olar PV and heat p u mp s r eflect ed s ignifica

81、nt financial benefit s for hou s eholds in 2022:Solar PV:Our f i r st c a se stud y i s a house hol d tha t onl y use s sol a r P V f or g e ne r a ti ng e l e c tr i c i ty,a nd a g a s b oi l e r f or he a ti ng i n G e r ma ny,S pa i n,a nd I ta l y.I n 2022,i n a l l thr e e c ountr i e s,the se

82、 house hol d s e xpe r i e nc e d a nnua l sa vi ng s of ove r 1,000 EU R,wi th a 7-8 k W P V syste m6(se e F i g.8).I n G e r ma ny a nd S pa i n,sol a r house hol d s sa ve d on a ve r a g e 1,263 EU R a nd 1,352 EU R r e spe c ti ve l y.I n I ta l y,a nnua l sa vi ng s r e a c he d the hi g he st

83、 l e ve l,up to 2,9 35 EU R or 64%.H e r e,e l e c tr i c i ty pr i c e s we r e hi g he r tha n i n G e r ma ny a nd S pa i n i n 2022,whi l e the f e e d-i n pr i c e wa s r e mune r a te d a t ma r k e t pr i c e va l ue c ompa r e d to f i xe d pa yme nts i n the othe r two c ountr i e s.Ove r a

84、 l l,sol a r-powe r e d house hol d s a voi d e d ma j or e ne r g y c osts(e l e c tr i c i ty f r om the g r i d,a nd g a s f or he a ti ng)i n 2022,whi l e r e c e i vi ng pa yme nts f or the e xc e ss sol a r P V e l e c tr i c i ty the y pr od uc e d.F or e xa mpl e,thi s r e sul te d i n sa vi

85、 ng s of up to 64%i n I ta l y(se e F i g.8).FIGURE 8 S AV I NGS OF HOUS EHOL DS WI T H S OL AR P V I N 2022 GermanySpainItalySpace heatingand hot water-22%-40%-64%Hot water tankGasboilerSolar PV5,843 Euro4,580 Euro3,374 Euro2,022 Euro4,564 Euro1,629 EuroEnergy bill with PVSavingsEnergy bill with fo

86、ssil fuel S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20236F or mod e l i ng a ssumpti ons,se e me thod ol og y c ha pte r.2 Key r esu lts/c onti nue dS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 12Heat p u mp s:T he r a pi d spi k e i n e ne r g y pr i c e s tha t sta r te d i n 2021 ha s b ooste d d e ma nd f or e l e c tr i c i

87、 ty-b a se d he a t.H e a t pumps,the k e y te c hnol og y use d f or thi s pur pose,e xpe r i e nc e d a ne a r l y 38%ma r k e t g r owth i n Eur ope i n 2022.Ar ound 20 mi l l i on he a t pumps we r e i nsta l l e d l a st ye a r.7 As the EU ha s b e e n movi ng qui c k l y to r e d uc e i ts d e

88、 pe nd e nc y on R ussi a n g a s,se ve r a l EU Me mb e r S ta te s now ha ve ta r g e ts a nd suppor t pr og r a mme s f or i nsta l l i ng he a t pumps,i nd e pe nd e ntl y f r om sol a r P V.T he r e f or e,our mod e l i s a l so e xa mi ni ng he a t pump sa vi ng s a s a se pa r a te te c hnol

89、og y,d ur i ng ti me s of pe a k e ne r g y pr i c e s i n 2022(se e F i g.9).T he house hol d mod e l l e d i n G e r ma ny showe d the hi g he st sa vi ng s a t 1,8 8 4 EU R.A typi c a l S pa ni sh house hol d sa ve d a ppr oxi ma te l y 9 58 EU R,whi l e I ta l i a n home s he l d the l owe st sa

90、 vi ng s a t 506 EU R.T he r e a sons a r e c l e a r:he a ti ng d e ma nd i s muc h hi g he r i n G e r ma ny tha n i n I ta l y a nd S pa i n,whi l e I ta l y wa s b ur d e ne d wi th the hi g he st e l e c tr i c i ty pr i c e s a mong st the thr e e c ountr i e s i n 2022,whi c h r e sul te d i

91、n l owe r sa vi ng s.I n r e l a ti ve te r ms,a he a t pump a l one he l pe d house hol d to sa ve up to 32%on the i r e l e c tr i c i ty b i l l s i n G e r ma ny,28%i n S pa i n,a nd 11%i n I ta l y(se e F i g.9).S a vi ng s wi th he a t pumps a l one,a r e l e ss tha n sa vi ng s wi th sol a r

92、P V,a s a he a t pump r e d uc e s g a s d e ma nd f or he a ti ng,b ut l e a d s to a n i nc r e a se i n e l e c tr i c i ty c onsumpti on.7https:/www.e hpa.or g/pr e ss_r e l e a se s/he a t-pump-r e c or d-3-mi l l i on-uni ts-sol d-i n-2022-c ontr i b uti ng-to-r e powe r e u-ta r g e ts/FIGURE

93、 9 S AV I NGS OF HOUS EHOL DS WI T H HEAT P UMP S I N 2022 Space heatingand hot waterHot water tankBufferstorageAir heatpumpGermanySpainItaly-32%-28%-11%Energy bill with HPSavingsEnergy bill with fossil fuel3,959 Euro5,843 Euro3,374 Euro2,416 Euro4,564 Euro4,058 Euro S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023S o

94、l a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 13Solar PV and heat p u mp s:T he c omb i na ti on of b oth sol a r P V a nd he a t pump yi e l d e d the hi g he st a nnua l sa vi ng s f or house hol d s i n a l l 3 c ountr i e s d ur i ng the e ne r g y c r i se s i n 2022.S ol a r P V g e ne r a te s the e l e c tr

95、i c i ty r e qui r e d b y the he a t pump,ta c k l i ng b oth house hol d s e ne r g y b i l l s,a nd the d e c a r b oni sa ti on of the i r powe r a nd he a t ne e d s.Cr uc i a l l y,the i nsta l l a ti on of a b uf f e r stor a g e ta nk a l ong si d e a he a t pump i s k e y f or the e f f e c

96、 ti ve c omb i na ti on of sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps,a nd to tr ul y l e ve r a g e the e c onomi c pote nti a l of the se te c hnol og i e s.I n the stud y,we a ssume d a ve r a g e b uf f e r stor a g e si ze s of 400(I ta l y&S pa i n)to 8 00 l i tr e s(G e r ma ny).I n thi s wa y,the wa r m

97、wa te r c a n b e stor e d a nd uti l i se d l a te r,ma xi mi si ng the se l f-c onsumpti on of the house.H owe ve r,sa vi ng s ma y d i f f e r d e pe nd i ng on the c ountr ys na ti ona l f r a me wor k.I n 2022,a typi c a l I ta l i a n sol a r P V a nd he a t pump powe r e d house hol d sa ve d

98、 the most on the i r e ne r g y b i l l s 3,7 66 EU R d ue to I ta l i a n e l e c tr i c i ty pr i c e s.G e r ma n house hol d sa vi ng s f ol l ow wi th 3,614 EU R,the n S pa ni sh house hol d s wi th 2,8 31 EU R.R e d uc e d sa vi ng s i n S pa i n r e f l e c t the me a sur e s ta k e n b y the

99、 I b e r i a n ma r k e t to l owe r whol e sa l e e l e c tr i c i ty pr i c e s.I n Ma y 2022,S pa i n a d opte d a 6.3 b i l l i on EU R pl a n to r e d uc e the g e ne r a ti on c ost of f ossi l f ue l-f i r e d powe r sta ti ons a nd,e f f e c ti ve l y,e l e c tr i c i ty pr i c e s.I n a d d

100、 i ti on,S pa ni sh house hol d s g e ne r a l l y d o not ha ve the sa me he a ti ng ne e d s a s those i n G e r ma ny.I n 2022,S ol a r P V a nd he a t pumps he l pe d to r e d uc e the e ne r g y b i l l of owne r s b y up to 8 4%,whe n c ompa r e d to our me d i um-si ze d house hol d c a se st

101、ud y sour c i ng i ts e l e c tr i c i ty pur e l y f r om the g r i d,a nd he a ti ng f r om a g a s b oi l e r.FIGURE 10 S AV I NGS MADE BY HOUS EHOL DS WI T H S OL AR P V AND HEAT P UMP S I N 2022 Solar PVSpace heatingand hot waterHot water tankBufferstorageAir heatpumpGermanySpainItaly-62%-84%-8

102、3%Energy bill with PV&HPSavingsEnergy bill with fossil fuel2,229 Euro5,843 Euro3,374 Euro543 Euro4,564 Euro798 Euro S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20232 Key r esu lts/c onti nue dS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 14How well do s olar and heat p u mp loads wor k t oget her?S wi tc hi ng to he a t pumps e l i

103、 mi na te s the e xposur e of house hol d s to g a s pr i c e vol a ti l i ty,b ut i t i ne vi ta b l y d r i ve s up e l e c tr i c i ty d e ma nd,whi c h i nc r e a se s the r i sk towa r d s pote nti a l e l e c tr i c i ty pr i c e hi k e s.Comb i ni ng a sol a r P V syste m wi th a he a t pump,

104、pr ote c ts c onsume r s c ompl e te l y a g a i nst a ny g a s pr i c e vol a ti l i ty a nd r e d uc e s the r i sk f r om r e ta i l e l e c tr i c i ty pr i c e hi k e s a t the sa me ti me.H owe ve r,sol a r P V +he a t pumps wi l l onl y wor k e f f e c ti ve l y tog e the r i f the r e i s a

105、spe c i f i c ove r l a p b e twe e n e l e c tr i c he a t d e ma nd a nd sol a r P V pr od uc ti on.F i r st,f or sol a r P V a nd he a t pump l oa d s to c or r e l a te b e yond a 10%r a ng e,the usa g e of a b uf f e r stor a g e ta nk i s f und a me nta l.Buf f e r stor a g e ta nk s a r e ub

106、i qui tous tod a y,pa r ti c ul a r l y i n c ool e r c ountr i e s,l i k e G e r ma ny.S e c ond l y,the c or r e l a ti on va r i e s si g ni f i c a ntl y d e pe nd e nt on we a the r c ond i ti ons sunshi ne a nd l ow te mpe r a tur e s.L a stl y,the sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps c omb i na ti o

107、n i s i mpa c te d b y c onsume r b e ha vi our (i nc l ud i ng l oa d shi f ti ng,b y showe r i ng or usi ng the d i shwa she r i n sunny hour s).8 A we a the r str e ss-te st wa s si mul a te d to c ompa r e the i mpa c t of f our e xtr e me we a the r pa tte r ns i n one a ve r a g e we a the r y

108、e a r,e a c h i nvol vi ng d i f f e r e nt te mpe r a tur e a nd sol a r pr od uc ti on ti me se r i e s.T he we a the r str e ss-te st si mul a ti on d e monstr a te s the sha r e of the e l e c tr i c i ty pr od uc e d b y a me d i um-si ze d r e si d e nti a l sol a r syste m f or e l e c tr i c

109、 he a ti ng (se e F i g.11).I n G e r ma ny,sol a r powe r c a n c ove r mor e tha n a thi r d (36%)of tota l he a t pump e l e c tr i c i ty d e ma nd i n a c ol d ye a r wi th l ow sol a r P V output,a nd up to 46%i n a mi l d e r ye a r wi th a wa r m a nd sunny wi nte r.9 Compa r a ti ve l y,i n

110、 I ta l y,on-si te sol a r powe r suppl y f or the he a t pump i s muc h hi g he r i ts c ove r a g e r a ng e s f r om 50%to 58%.T he b e st ove r l a p i s r e a c he d i n S pa i n,whe r e the sol a r syste m c ove r s 59%of tota l he a t pump e l e c tr i c i ty d e ma nd i n a c ol d ye a r wi

111、th l ow P V output,a nd c l ose to two thi r d s(63%)i n a ye a r wi th a wa r m wi nte r.10 FIGURE 11 S HAR E OF HEAT P UMP EL ECT R I CI T Y DEMAND COV ER ED BY S OL AR P V GENER AT I ON,I N GER MANY,S P AI N,AND I T AL YCold year,low PV outputCold year,high PV outputWarm summerWarm winterAverage

112、weather year%000202020404040606060808080100100100Grid shareSolar shareGermanyItalySpain38%46%41%38%36%54%58%51%53%50%62%63%59%62%59%S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20238T he se e f f e c ts we r e not mod e l l e d f or thi s stud y.9DE:H e a t pump c a pa c i ty:7 k W,Buf f e r stor a g e:8 00 l i te r s,

113、P V c a pa c i ty:8 k W.10I T/ES:H e a t pump c a pa c i ty:4/3 k W,Buf f e r stor a g e:400 l i te r s,P V c a pa c i ty:7 k W.T hi s ove r l a p i s shown i n F i g.12,whi c h i l l ustr a te s the hour l y e l e c tr i c l oa d pr of i l e s of sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps,the e l e c tr i c e q

114、ui va l e nt of the the r ma l he a ti ng d e ma nd of the r e spe c ti ve f a mi l y house,a s we l l a s the the r ma l stor a g e f i l l i ng l e ve l f or a ve r a g e Wi nte r a nd S umme r d a ys i n G e r ma ny,S pa i n,a nd I ta l y.Dur i ng a n a ve r a g e d a y of the wa r m S pr i ng/S

115、umme r pe r i od (6 months,f r om Apr i l to S e pte mb e r)i n a ny of the thr e e c ountr i e s,the sol a r syste m powe r s the he a t pump d ur i ng d a yl i g ht hour s.T he he a t pump me e ts he a t d e ma nd s f or hot wa te r usa g e,i n a d d i ti on to he a ti ng up wa te r i n the b uf f

116、 e r ta nk d ur i ng the d a y.T hi s c a n b e use d b oth f or spa c e a nd wa te r he a ti ng,l a te r i n the e ve ni ng a nd mor ni ng hour s.T hi s wor k s b e st i n S pr i ng a nd Autumn,wi th he a ti ng d e ma nd a nd sol a r pr od uc ti on ta k i ng pl a c e a t c onsi d e r a b l e l e ve

117、 l s a t the sa me ti me,a nd most l oa d shi f ti ng a nd sol a r-to-he a t stor a g e oc c ur r i ng i n the se months.V e r y l ow he a t d e ma nd i n sol a r-i nte nsi ve pe a k summe r months(e.g.J ul y),me a ns tha t i t c a n b e f ul l y me t b y sol a r P V.R e g a r d l e ss,the d e ma nd

118、 i tse l f i s so l ow,tha t the r ma l wa te r stor a g e ha r d l y d e pl e te s a t ni g ht,a nd l oa d shi f ti ng oc c ur s onl y ve r y ma r g i na l l y,so tha t sol a r e ne r g y i s mostl y f e d i nto the g r i d.Dur i ng a n a ve r a g e I ta l i a n a nd S pa ni sh Wi nte r d a y(Oc to

119、b e r to Ma r c h),sol a r P V +he a t pump powe r e d home s onl y ne e d to sour c e a r ound 10%of the i r e ne r g y f r om the g r i d to c ompl e me nt i n-house g e ne r a ti on,thi s numb e r c a n g o hi g he r d e pe nd i ng on the spe c i f i c c a se.Whi l e i n pe a k Wi nte r months(e.

120、g.De c e mb e r),thi s a mount i s muc h hi g he r,i t i s ve r y l ow or e ve n ze r o d ur i ng the Autumn a nd S pr i ng months.I n c ompa r i son,G e r ma n d a i l y sol a r P V pr od uc ti on i n wi nte r i s 40-60%11 l owe r tha n i n I ta l y a nd S pa i n,whi l e he a t d e ma nd i s 60-8 0

121、%hi g he r.O n a G e r ma n Wi nte r d a y,the mod e l l e d on-si te sol a r P V a nd he a t pump syste ms c a n c ove r a r ound 20%of the tota l e ne r g y d e ma nd d ur i ng a n a ve r a g e d a y.Comb i ni ng sol a r P V a nd he a t pump syste ms ma xi mi se s se l f-c onsumpti on a nd r e d u

122、c e s e ne r g y b i l l s f or house hol d s.I n a d d i ti on,i t i s i mpor ta nt to note tha t tog e the r,the se te c hnol og i e s b e ne f i t the e ne r g y syste m a s a whol e,b y i nc e nti vi si ng e l e c tr i c l oa d shi f ti ng i nto hour s of hi g h r e ne wa b l e e ne r g y pr od

123、uc ti on.S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 1511Ba se d on MER R A-2 d a ta f or the we a the r ye a r 2008,whi c h i s use d a s a ve r a g e we a the r ye a r f or te mpe r a tur e s a nd P V pr od uc ti on i n the se thr e e c ountr i e s.AF EC2 Key r esu lts/c onti nue dS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2

124、023 16FIGURE 12 WI NT ER AND S UMMER DAY AV ER AGE GER MANY,S P AI N,I T AL Y -HOUR L Y EL ECT R I C L OAD AND BUF F ER S T OR AGE L EV EL S11552210103315154420205525256630301357911131517192123Average of Summerdays-GermanyAverage of Winterdays-GermanyHourly electric load in KW_elHourly electric load

125、 in KW_elWarm water storage level in kWh_thWarm water storage level in kWh_thHour of the dayHour of the day13579111315171921231155221010331515442020552525663030Average of Summerdays-SpainAverage of Winterdays-SpainHourly electric load in kW_elHourly electric load in kW_elWarm water storage level in

126、kWh_thWarm water storage level in kWh_thHour of the dayHour of the day135791113151719212313579111315171921231155221010331515442020552525663030Average of Summerdays-ItalyAverage of Winterdays-ItalyHourly electric load in kW_elHourly electric load in kW_elWarm water storage level in kWh_thWarm water s

127、torage level in kWh_thHour of the dayHour of the day13579111315171921231357911131517192123Warm water storage level(kW_th)HP load_elPV productionHeat demand_el S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023I n summe r,S ol a r P V powe r s the he a t pump d ur i ng d a yl i g ht hour s,a nd the he a t pump me e ts he

128、 a t d e ma nd s f or hot wa te r usa g e a nd he a ts up wa te r i n the b uf f e r ta nk d ur i ng the d a y.I n Wi nte r,the sol a r P V a nd he a t pump syste ms c a n c ove r a r ound 20%of the tota l e ne r g y d e ma nd d ur i ng a n a ve r a g e d a y.On a n a ve r a g e summe r d a y i n S

129、pa i n a nd I ta l y,the he a t d e ma nd f or wa te r i s f ul l y me t b y the he a t pump,a nd the wa te r stor a g e r e ma i ns hi g h i n the e ve ni ng.I n S pa i n a nd I ta l y,on a n a ve r a g e Wi nte r d a y,home s wi th sol a r P V +he a t pump ne e d to sour c e a r ound 10%of the i r

130、 e ne r g y f r om the g r i d,thi s numb e r c a n i nc r e a se d e pe nd i ng on the spe c i f i c c a se,a nd g r ows hi g he r i n pe a k Wi nte r months.S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 17In conclu s ion,G e r ma n,S pa ni sh,a nd I ta l i a n f a mi l y house hol d s e qui ppe d wi th sol a r

131、P V ha ve b e e n shi e l d e d f r om hi g h e ne r g y pr i c e s i n 2022;the y c oul d sa ve up to 22%i n G e r ma ny(1,263 EU R),40%i n S pa i n(1,352 EU R),a nd 64%i n I ta l y(2,9 35 EU R).Mod e l l e d house hol d s whi c h use d a he a t pump f or he a ti ng pur pose s,c oul d l owe r the i

132、 r e ne r g y b i l l s e ve n mor e b y a ma xi mum of 32%or 1,8 8 4 EU R i n the G e r ma n c a se.H owe ve r,the opti ma l sc e na r i o i s the c omb i na ti on of sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps.A typi c a l r e si d e nti a l home usi ng sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps f or he a ti ng pr of i te d

133、 f r om sa vi ng s of 62%(3,614 EU R)i n G e r ma ny,8 4%(2,8 31 EU R)i n S pa i n,a nd 8 3%(3,7 66 EU R)i n I ta l y.I nc r e a se d se l f-c onsumpti on r a te s f r om i nte g r a te d P V a nd he a t pump syste ms a r e a k e y d r i ve r f or the se sa vi ng s.S i nc e typi c a l he a t pump sy

134、ste ms a r e e qui ppe d wi th a b uf f e r stor a g e ta nk tod a y,sol a r a nd he a t pump l oa d pr of i l e s ma tc h we l l.U nd e r a ve r a g e we a the r c ond i ti ons,a me d i um-si ze d sol a r syste m i s a b l e to pr ovi d e ne a r l y two thi r d s(62%)of e l e c tr i c i ty ne e d s

135、 to he a t a n a ve r a g e S pa ni sh f a mi l y house hol d,a nd mor e tha n one thi r d (38%)of a G e r ma n f a mi l y house hol d.A hi stor i c a l we a the r d a ta a na l ysi s shows tha t sol a r P V +he a t pumps pe r f or ma nc e c ha ng e s mi ni ma l l y d ur i ng a c ol d Wi nte r,wi th

136、 a d ve r se c ond i ti ons f or sol a r P V,r e sul ti ng i n 59%sol a r powe r c ove r a g e f or S pa i n,a nd 36%i n G e r ma ny.On the c ontr a r y,a wa r m Wi nte r c a n b oost sol a r s c ontr i b uti on i n G e r ma ny,r e a c hi ng c l ose to ha l f of the c ountr ys he a ti ng ne e d s(46

137、%).P i xa b a y2 Key r esu lts/c onti nue dS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 182.2.Lo n g-ter m savin gs fo r So lar PV&HP:So lar PV will gen er ate lar ge savin gs fo r ho u seho lds in the co min g year s,bo th alo n e,an d in co mbin atio n with electr ified heatin g techn o lo gies.Hap p y heat p

138、u mp +so lar PV o wn er s in all scen ar io s F or owne r s of a sol a r P V,or a c omb i ne d sol a r P V a nd he a t pump syste m,the r e por t f i nd s tha t the sa vi ng s c onti nue to b e si g ni f i c a nt i n the c omi ng ye a r s,e ve n i f ma r k e t-pa r ti c i pa nts wi d e l y pr oj e c

139、 t l ong-te r m g a s a nd powe r pr i c e s to sta b i l i se a t l owe r l e ve l s.I n the me d i um sc e na r i o use d i n thi s stud y,we a ssume l ong-te r m Eur ope a n f ossi l g a s pr i c e s a t a l most d oub l e the pr e-c r i si s l e ve l,whi c h a t the ti me of wr i ti ng (F e b r

140、ua r y 2023)a ppe a r e d to b e the N e w N or ma l,whe n ta k i ng i nto a c c ount l ong-te r m pr i c e e xpe c ta ti ons a t i nte r na ti ona l g a s tr a d i ng hub s(Dutc h T T F,Ame r i c a n H e nr y-H ub).I n F i g.13 the d e ve l opme nt of the Dutc h T F F f utur e ma r k e t g a s pr i

141、 c e f or f r ont ye a r d e l i ve r i e s i s shown,b oth b e f or e a nd a f te r the sta r t of the e ne r g y c r i si s i n a utumn 2021.De spi te c ur r e nt si g ns of te mpor a r y r e c ove r y,g a s pr i c e s i n e a r l y 2023 a r e sti l l ve r y we l l a b ove pr e-c r i si s l e ve l

142、 s.FIGURE 13 DU T CH T T F NAT UR AL GAS F U T UR ES050100150200250300350400EUR/MWhPre-level crisisPriceJan 2020July 2020Jan 2021July 2021Jan 2022July 2022Jan 2023Feb 202320 EUR/MWhS OU R CE:I CE End e x.S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 19F or powe r pr i c e s,the N e w

143、N or ma l me d i um sc e na r i o d r a ws on a ve r a g e pr i c e e xpe c ta ti ons of ma r k e t pa r ti c i pa nts i n e a r l y 2023 a s we l l.T he a ve r a g e EEX se ttl e me nt pr i c e s tr a d e d i n e a r l y F e b r ua r y 2023 f or b a se l oa d d e l i ve r i e s i n the c omi ng 10

144、ye a r s a r e use d a s a r e f e r e nc e (se e F i g.14).Ac c or d i ng l y,G e r ma n a nd I ta l i a n powe r pr i c e s a r e e xpe c te d to r e a c h a N e w N or ma l l e ve l of a r ound 120 EU R/MWh,a ve r a g e S pa ni sh pr i c e s wi l l sta b i l i se a t a l e ve l of 66 EU R/MWh.FIG

145、URE 14 EEX HI S T OR I CAL MAR K ET P R I CE,2020-202202004006008001,0001,200EUR/MWhPriceJan 2020July 2020Jan 2021July 2021Jan 2022July 2022Jan 2023Feb 2023S OU R CE:EEX.S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20232 Key r esu lts/c onti nue dS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 20Bo x 3.AC can sign ifican tly in cr eas

146、e self-co n su mp tio n;leadin g to higher an n u al savin gs.AC+PV+HP:Ai r Cond i ti one r s(AC)a r e wi d e l y use d i n southe r n Eur ope a n c ountr i e s suc h a s S pa i n a nd I ta l y.O ur mod e l shows tha t the use of sol a r powe r a nd he a t pumps woul d l e a d to e xtr a f i na nc i

147、 a l sa vi ng s.T he a nnua l e ne r g y b i l l sa vi ng s tha t a n a ve r a g e I ta l i a n f a mi l y home c a n a tta i n b y i nsta l l i ng a n a ve r a g e si ze P V syste m i s 113 or +9%hi g he r i f a 5 k W AC syste m i s a l r e a d y i nsta l l e d to c ool two r ooms(l i vi ng r oom a

148、 nd b e d r oom).Due to g e ne r a l l y hotte r c l i ma te a nd mor e sol a r f ul l l oa d hour s,thi s e f f e c t i s mor e pr onounc e d i n S pa i n a t+215 or 19%.T he sa vi ng s f r om i nve sti ng i n P V+H P a r e i n tur n 110 or +6%hi g he r i n I ta l y i f a n AC syste m i s a l r e a

149、 d y i nsta l l e d,a nd +212 or 13%i n S pa i n.S i nc e AC a nd H P use (f or hot wa te r d ur i ng the d a y,e.g.d i shwa she r)mi g ht sl i g htl y c a nni b a l i se e a c h othe r on some d a ys,the numb e r s a r e ma r g i na l l y l owe r tha n f or P V onl y.FIGURE 15 AN N U AL S AV I N GS

150、 F OR P V /P V +H P I F BU I L DI N G AL R EADY H AS AC OR N O T,I N T H E N EW N OR MAL S CEN AR I O 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000Annual savings on energy bill(EUR)no ACno ACAC(2 rooms)AC(2 rooms)Additional savings fromadding HP to PVSavings from adding PVItalySpain6%13%9%19%S OL AR P OWER EU R OP

151、E 2023U nd e r the N e w N or ma l pr i c e sc e na r i o,f or the c omi ng ye a r s,a nnua l sa vi ng s of typi c a l home s e qui ppe d wi th me d i um-si ze d sol a r P V a r e c onsi ste ntl y ove r 1,000 EU R i n G e r ma ny,I ta l y a nd S pa i n,a nd the y c l i mb up to ove r 1,8 00 EU R whe

152、 n sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps a r e c omb i ne d.T he sa vi ng s of the d uo a r e b e twe e n 46%a nd 67%hi g he r,tha n f or a house hol d tha t ope r a te s a sol a r P V syste m a l one (se e F i g.16).I n c ompa r i son to the or i g i na l e ne r g y b i l l,sa vi ng s f or a house hol d wi

153、 th sol a r P V onl y r a ng e s b e twe e n 33%i n G e r ma ny a nd 51%i n S pa i n a nd I ta l y,whi l e f or the P V +H P c omb i na ti on the r e d uc ti on i s hi g he r,a t 55%i n G e r ma ny a nd 7 6%i n I ta l y(se e F i g.17).T hi s f i nd i ng i s r ob ust a g a i nst hi g he r a nd l owe

154、r c ommod i ty pr i c e sc e na r i os.S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 21FIGURE 16 ANNU AL I S ED12 S AV I NGS P ER T ECHNOL OGY I N GER MANY,S P AI N,I T AL Y,I N T HE NEW NOR MAL S CENAR I O 04008001,2001,6002,000Euro saved per year(EUR)PVPVPVPV+HPPV+HPPV+HPSpainGermanyItaly67%46%49%S OL AR P OWER

155、 EU R OP E 2023FIGURE 17 AN N U AL I S ED S AV I N GS P ER T ECHN OL OGY I N%I N GER MAN Y,S P AI N,I T AL Y,I N T HE N EW N OR MAL S CEN AR I O 01020304050607080Energy bill savings in%PVPVPVPV+HPPV+HPPV+HPSpainGermanyItaly33%51%51%55%74%76%S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 202312We use a nnua l sa vi ng s f

156、 or sa vi ng s on a spe c i f i c ye a r,i.e.2022,a nd a nnua l i se d sa vi ng s f or sa vi ng s tha t c ove r s se ve r a l ye a r s b ut a r e a ve r a g e d.2 Key r esu lts/c onti nue dS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 22Bo x 4.Lo o kin g fo r a qu ick an d lo w-co st so lu tio n?Check o u t a hea

157、tin g r o d!T he r e por t a l so e va l ua te s the c omb i na ti on of sol a r P V wi th a c he a pe r,l e sse r k nown e l e c tr i c he a ti ng te c hnol og y:the he a ti ng r od.H e a ti ng r od s a r e e a sy to f i nd a nd swi f t to d e pl oy,wi th i nsta l l a ti on c osts b e twe e n 500 a

158、 nd 1,000 i n Eur ope a n ma r k e ts.I t ta k e s the f or m of a n e l e c tr i c i mme r si on he a te r tha t si ts i n a wa te r ta nk a nd wor k s some wha t si mi l a r l y to a n e l e c tr i c a l k e ttl e.A P owe r-to-H e a t a ppl i c a ti on,i t c onve r ts e l e c tr i c i ty g e ne r

159、a te d f r om sol a r P V i nto he a t wi thi n the wa te r syste m of the house.T he r od s a r e e a si l y f i xe d to the home he a ti ng syste ms hot wa te r ta nk,whi c h tod a y of te n ha ve pr e-i nsta l l e d ope ni ng s to c onne c t the se d e vi c e s.I n c omb i na ti on wi th sol a r

160、P V,the he a ti ng r od e na b l e s i nc r e a si ng the sol a r se l f-c onsumpti on r a te b y sub sti tuti ng pa r ts of the house hol d s g a s c onsumpti on a nd l e a d i ng to l owe r house hol d s e ne r g y b i l l a t l ow upf r ont i nve stme nt c ost.T he i mpa c t a nd c ontr i b uti o

161、n f r om thi s c omb i na ti on d e pe nd s on the si ze of the sol a r syste m,the wa te r ta nk s c a pa c i ty,a nd the d e ma nd,whi c h i s why i t ma k e s se nse to e mpl oy e ne r g y ma na g e me nt to ope r a te the se r od s.Whi l e r od s of a r ound 2 k W a r e usua l l y use d f or sma

162、 l l e r r e si d e nti a l r oof top syste ms up to 6 k W a nd wa te r stor a g e ta nk s up to 250 l i te r s,mor e powe r f ul r od s a r e a ppl i e d f or l a r g e r i nsta l l a ti ons(we use d 3 k W f or our mod e l l i ng).Our mod e l showe d a ma r g i na l i nc r e a se on a nnua l sa vi

163、ng s i n G e r ma ny wi th 1,431(+167 or +13%)c ompa r e d to sol a r P V a l one i n 2022;i n S pa i n,the hi g he r sol a r pr od uc ti on l e a d s to a n i nc r e a se d he a ti ng r od uti l i sa ti on a nd thus hi g he r sa vi ng s of 1,523(+17 1 or +13%).I n I ta l y,howe ve r,the P V a nd he

164、 a ti ng r od syste m sa vi ng s i n 2022 we r e l owe r tha n f or the P V onl y c a se,a t 2,7 28 (-207).T hi s r e sul t i s c a use d b y the ve r y hi g h f e e d-i n e l e c tr i c i ty pr i c e s,whi c h pr ovi d e b e tte r r e tur ns tha n the g a i ns f r om r e d uc e d g a s c onsumpti o

165、n.I n othe r wor d s,i n I ta l y,i n 2022,i t wa s mor e b e ne f i c i a l to g e t r e mune r a te d f or f e e d i ng your e xc e ss sol a r e l e c tr i c i ty i nto the g r i d,tha n to use i t wi th a he a ti ng r od i n a n a tte mpt to r e d uc e the c ost of your g a s c onsumpti on.H owe

166、ve r,thi s i s d i f f e r e nt f or a he a t pump whi c h e na b l e d muc h hi g he r sa vi ng s of 3,7 63.U nl i k e a he a ti ng r od syste m,whi c h ha s a n e f f i c i e nc y of a r ound 9 9%,a g ood he a t pump c a n suppl y ove r 3.5 ti me s the he a t e ne r g y f r om e ve r y e l e c tr

167、i c a l e ne r g y i t c onsume s,tr a nsl a ti ng i nto a r ound 350%e f f i c i e nc y.Fu n fact:H P syste ms of te n c ome wi th pr e-i nsta l l e d he a ti ng r od s a s a n a d d i ti ona l he a ti ng e l e me nt.I f the he a t pump c a nnot c ove r d e ma nd,the he a ti ng r od ste ps i n.Mor

168、e ove r,thi s c omb i na ti on a l l ows to swi tc h of f the he a t pump c ompl e te l y i n summe r,whi c h i nc r e a se s i ts se r vi c e l i f e ti me.EnBWS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 23T he P V a nd he a ti ng r od c a se wa s mod e l l e d f or a nnua l sa vi ng s of ope r a ti ng syste m

169、s ove r the c omi ng ye a r s a c c or d i ng to the N e w N or ma l sc e na r i o.Savings:I n G e r ma ny,a typi c a l P V+H R syste m he l ps to sa ve 1,08 8 ove r a g a s b oi l e r,the sa me r a ng e a s a sol a r P V a l one whi c h sa ve s 1,07 6 pe r ye a r.I n S pa i n,the sa vi ng s f r om

170、P V+H R a l l ows f or a n e xtr a 61 or 5%sa ve d c ompa r e d to P V a l one.T he r e a sons f or hi g he r sa vi ng s i n S pa i n i s the hi g he r a va i l a b i l i ty of sol a r pr od uc ti on.I n I ta l y the hi g h f e e d-i n r a te ma k e s i t mor e i nte r e sti ng to f e e d the sur pl

171、 us e l e c tr i c i ty f r om the P V syste m tha n to use i t wi th a he a ti ng r od.T he sa vi ng s f r om P V a l one a r e 1,251,whe r e a s P V+H R a r e a a t l i ttl e l e ss,r e a c hi ng onl y 1,222 pe r ye a r.H owe ve r,f r om a c l i ma te pe r spe c ti ve i t a l so ma k e s se nse P

172、V+H R r e d uc e s g a s c onsumpti on b y up to 13%i n S pa i n,11%i n I ta l y,a nd 7%i n G e r ma ny(se e F i g.25).Pay back t ime:Ad d i ng a he a ti ng r od to a sol a r syste m i n G e r ma ny d oe snt i mpa c t the pa yb a c k ti me i n the N e w N or ma l sc e na r i o i t r e ma i ns a t 19

173、 ye a r s,si nc e the se l f-c onsumpti on vol ume s onl y i nc r e a se ma r g i na l l y.I n c ontr a st,i n S pa i n mor e sol a r pr od uc ti on i s a va i l a b l e f or the he a ti ng r od to si g ni f i c a ntl y i mpr ove the se l f-c onsumpti on r a te -thi s l e a d s to 2 ye a r s c ut i

174、n pa yb a c k ti me d own to 17 ye a r s.I n I ta l y,the pa yb a c k ti me of P V a l one (14 ye a r s)i s d e te r i or a te d b y a d d i ng a H R (15 ye a r s)d ue to the a f or e-me nti one d e c onomi c una ttr a c ti ve ne ss of sub sti tuti ng g a s c osts wi th a H R a t a n e f f i c i e n

175、c y of 9 9%i nste a d of f e e d i ng i n sol a r sur pl use s a t hi g he r e l e c tr i c i ty pr i c e s.In s u mmar y:H e a ti ng r od s a r e a l ow-c ost sol uti on to e l e c tr i f y pa r t of a house hol d s he a ti ng e ne r g y ne e d s.U si ng a P V syste m pl us a he a ti ng r od i nc r

176、 e a se s sa vi ng s on the e ne r g y b i l l b y up to 5%i n S pa i n whi l e the ne e d s f or g a s c a n b e r e d uc e d b y up to 13%.FIGURE 18 EX T R A CAS E S T UDY HOUS EHOL D WI T H P V AND HEAT I NG R OD(P V+HR)Solar PVGermanySpainItalyAnnual gas savings forhouseholds switchingto PV+HR i

177、n%7%13%11%Space heatingand hot waterHot water tankwith heating rodGasboiler S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20232 Key r esu lts/c onti nue dS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 24Al te r na ti ve sc e na r i os ha ve b e e n mod e l l e d to a)a d d r e ss the c ur r e ntl y hi g h unc e r ta i nty on f utur e

178、c ommod i ty pr i c e l e ve l s,a nd b)to g e ne r a l l y str e ss-te st the r e sul ts.T he hi g h c ommod i ty pr i c e sc e na r i o(R e tur n-to-Cr i si s)r e pr e se nts a f utur e whe r e the g a s c r i si s r e-e sc a l a te s,f or e xa mpl e d ue to str ong g l ob a l e c onomi c r e c ov

179、e r y i n Asi a.T hi s i n tur n woul d a l so i nc r e a se powe r pr i c e s.T he l ow c ommod i ty pr i c e sc e na r i o(F ossi l Dumpi ng)r e pr e se nts a f utur e whe r e Eur ope a n a nd g l ob a l g a s d e ma nd f a l l s d r a ma ti c a l l y,l e a d i ng to ove r suppl y a nd f ossi l d

180、umpi ng on the ma r k e ts.Whi l e thi s sc e na r i o c oul d b e c ome a d e f i ni ng tr e nd i n the ne xt d e c a d e s,i t i s l e ss l i k e l y to ma te r i a l i se i n the ne xt f e w ye a r s.I n a ny c a se,i t i s f a i r to sa y tha t g a s ma r k e ts wi l l r e ma i n ve r y vol a ti

181、 l e a nd unc e r ta i n i n the c omi ng ye a r s.T he f ol l owi ng g r a phs pr e se nt the pote nti a l a nnua l sa vi ng s i n f utur e ye a r s,b a se d on the thr e e a f or e me nti one d sc e na r i os f or l ong-te r m c ommod i ty pr i c e pa ths.In Ger many,the a b sol ute sa vi ng s f r

182、 om a me d i um si ze P V syste m r a ng e f r om 1,041 a nd 1,18 0 pe r ye a r,d e pe nd i ng on the c ommod i ty pr i c e sc e na r i o(se e F i g.19).Due to sa vi ng s on b oth e l e c tr i c i ty a nd g a s,c omb i ni ng sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps c a n he l p home owne r s to r e d uc e the

183、i r a nnua l b i l l muc h mor e si g ni f i c a ntl y(1,427 to 2,323).F or e xa mpl e,und e r the N e w N or ma l sc e na r i o,sa vi ng s i mpr ove b y 67%ove r a sta nd a l one P V syste m.I n the sol a r P V a nd he a t pump c a se,sa vi ng s a r e a l so f l uc tua ti ng muc h mor e wi th the c

184、 hose n c ommod i ty pr i c e sc e na r i o,si nc e vol a ti l i ty f r om b oth powe r a nd g a s pr i c e s d i r e c tl y a f f e c ts sa vi ng s.Whi l e the b i g g e st sa vi ng s a r e r e c or d e d i n the R e tur n-to-Cr i si s sc e na r i o,e ve n i n the F ossi l Dumpi ng sc e na r i o so

185、l a r P V onl y,or sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps c omb i ne d,of f e r nota b l e f i na nc i a l b e ne f i ts a b ove the ma r k of 1,000 pe r ye a r.Whe n l ook i ng a t the r e l a ti ve r e d uc ti on of e ne r g y b i l l s b y usi ng sol a r P V,or sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps,i nste a d of

186、onl y f ossi l g a s-b a se d he a ti ng a nd g r i d e l e c tr i c i ty,the a nnua l e ne r g y b i l l c a n b e r e d uc e d b y up to 38%(sol a r P V onl y)or 55%(sol a r P V +he a t pump)(se e F i g.20).Whi l e the absolute savings in EUR on the e ne r g y b i l l i nc r e a se s wi th i nc r

187、e a si ng c ommod i ty pr i c e l e ve l s i n b oth c a se s i n G e r ma ny,the relative savings in%a l so i nc r e a se f or sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps,b ut not f or the c a se of P V onl y.T he r e a son i s tha t hi g he r/l owe r c ommod i ty pr i c e s i nc r e a se/d e c r e a se the c os

188、ts f or g r i d c onsumpti on pr opor ti ona l l y mor e tha n the a nnua l sa vi ng s.FIGURE 19 S CENAR I OS F OR ANNU AL I S ED S AV I NGS F R OM P V AND P V+HP I N GER MANY05001,0001,5002,0002,500Euro saved per year(EUR)PVPV+HPNew normalReturn-to-crisisFossil dumpingFIGURE 20 S CENAR I OS F OR AN

189、NU AL I S ED S AV I NGS F R OM P V AND P V+HP I N%I N GER MANY0102030405060Annual energy bill savings in%PVPV+HP S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023I nd e e d,whi l e the g r i d powe r pr i c e i s a pa r a me te r b oth on the c ost si d e (pa yme nts f or g r i d powe r suppl y)a nd the sa vi ng s si d

190、 e (sa vi ng s f r om se l f-c onsumpti on),a f e e d-i n ta r i f f c ompl e te s the pi c tur e on the sa vi ng s si d e.H owe ve r,G e r ma ny of f e r s a f i xe d f e e d-i n ta r i f f to r e si d e nti a l sol a r P V owne r s,whi c h i s i nd e pe nd e nt f r om pr i c e d e ve l opme nts on

191、 the e l e c tr i c i ty ma r k e t.H e nc e,on the sa vi ng s si d e,onl y the sa vi ng s f r om se l f-c onsumpti on f l uc tua te wi th c ommod i ty pr i c e l e ve l s,whi l e the i nc ome f r om se l l i ng e xc e ss f e e d-i n r e ma i ns c onsta nt.I n c ontr a st,i n the se l f-c onsumpti o

192、n sc he me s of othe r c ountr i e s,sol a r e xc e ss f e e d-i n i s of te n r e mune r a te d a t i ts ma r k e t va l ue a nd the r e f or e f l uc tua ti ng.In Sp ain,home owne r s wi th sol a r P V c a n sa ve b e twe e n 9 7 9 a nd 1,9 57 a nd those wi th sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps,b e twe

193、 e n 1,29 6 a nd 2,401 d e pe nd i ng on the sc e na r i o(se e F i g.21).By a d d i ng he a t pumps to sol a r P V,the a nnua l i se d sa vi ng s soa r b y 46%i n the N e w N or ma l sc e na r i o.T hi s i s the l owe st i nc r e a se f or the 3 c ountr i e s mod e l l e d.P owe r pr i c e l e ve l

194、 s i n S pa i n a r e e xpe c te d to b e muc h l owe r tha n i n G e r ma ny a nd i n I ta l y,whe r e the hi k e s we r e a l so muc h hi g he r i n 2022.L owe r powe r pr i c e s l e a d i n tur n to l owe r sa vi ng s f r om se l f-c onsumpti on.Compa r e d to G e r ma ny,S pa ni sh sol a r syst

195、e ms g e ne r a l l y r e a c h si g ni f i c a ntl y hi g he r f ul l l oa d hour s of te n ove r 1.5 ti me s mor e.Conse que ntl y,i nc r e a se d sol a r powe r output wi th hi g he r se l f-c onsumpti on a nd e xc e ss e xpor t vol ume s,c r e a te s a mor e r e g ul a r f l uc tua ti on i n S p

196、a ni sh a nnua l sa vi ng s,e spe c i a l l y c ompa r e d to G e r ma ny.T he d i f f e r e nc e i s str i k i ng i n the sol a r P V onl y sc e na r i o.I n the sol a r P V a nd he a t pump c a se,G e r ma nys hi g he r he a t d e ma nd c ounte r a c ts thi s tr e nd.Whe n c ompa r i ng the sol a

197、r P V or sol a r P V a nd he a t pump f a mi l y house hol d,to the house hol d usi ng onl y f ossi l g a s he a ti ng a nd g r i d e l e c tr i c i ty,the a nnua l e ne r g y b i l l i s up to 55%(sol a r P V onl y)or 8 3%(sol a r P V +he a t pump)l owe r (se e F i g.22).Compa r e d to G e r ma ny

198、a nd I ta l y,the r e l a ti ve sa vi ng s i n%i n S pa i n i nc r e a se a l ong si d e hi g he r c ommod i ty pr i c e s,b oth i n the sol a r P V a nd he a t pump,a nd the sol a r P V onl y sc e na r i o(f or e xpl a na ti on se e se c ti on b e l ow on I ta l y).S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 2

199、5FIGURE 21 S CENAR I OS F OR ANNU AL I S ED S AV I NGS F R OM P V AND P V+HP I N S P AI N 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000Euro saved per year(EUR)PVPV+HPNew normalReturn-to-crisisFossil dumpingFIGURE 22 S CENAR I OS F OR ANNU AL I S ED S AV I NGS F R OM P V AND P V+HP I N%I N S P AI N Annual energy bil

200、l savings in%PVPV+HP0102030405060708090 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20232 Key r esu lts/c onti nue dS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 26In It aly,i n the ne xt ye a r s,the a nnua l i se d sa vi ng s a r e a l so l a r g e l y posi ti ve a nd f ol l ow a si mi l a r pa tte r n to G e r ma ny a nd S pa i

201、n,showi ng i nc r e a si ng sa vi ng s wi th i nc r e a si ng e ne r g y pr i c e s(se e F i g.23).F or a sol a r P V onl y house hol d,the sa vi ng s r a ng e s f r om 1,136 und e r the F ossi l Dumpi ng sc e na r i o,to 1,57 4 und e r the R e tur n-to-Cr i si s sc e na r i o.I f ope r a te d tog e

202、 the r,sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps a l l ow f or si g ni f i c a ntl y hi g he r sa vi ng s of 1,525 a nd 2,47 7,r e spe c ti ve l y.Compa r e d to a f a mi l y house wi thout sol a r P V or sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps,the a nnua l sa vi ng s a r e up to 54%f or sol a r P V a nd 8 0%f or sol a r

203、 P V a nd he a t pumps(se e F i g.24).As i n G e r ma ny,i nc r e a si ng c ommod i ty pr i c e l e ve l s i n I ta l y c a use r e l a ti ve sa vi ng s i n%to r i se onl y f or sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps,b ut not f or sol a r P V onl y,whi l e a b sol ute sa vi ng s i n EU R i mpr ove f or b oth

204、 c a se s.T hi s me a ns tha t hi g he r/l owe r c ommod i ty pr i c e s i nc r e a se/d e c r e a se the c osts f or g r i d c onsumpti on pr opor ti ona l l y mor e tha n the a nnua l sa vi ng s.I n c ontr a st to G e r ma ny,howe ve r,thi s e f f e c t i s muc h l e ss pr onounc e d a nd i s d r

205、i ve n b y a sl i g htl y d i f f e r e nt r e a son.I n a l l thr e e c ountr i e s,the g r i d powe r pr i c e i s a pa r a me te r b oth on the c ost si d e (c osts f or g r i d wi thd r a wa l)a nd the sa vi ng s si d e (sa vi ng s f r om se l f-c onsumpti on),whi l e the f e e d-i n ta r i f f

206、c ompl e te s the pi c tur e on the sa vi ng s si d e.U nl i k e i n G e r ma ny,i n I ta l y a nd S pa i n the f e e d-i n ta r i f f i s not f i xe d b ut f l uc tua te s wi th i ts ma r k e t va l ue.H owe ve r,d ue to pr i c e c a nni b a l i sa ti on i n mi d d a y hour s,the sol a r ma r k e t

207、 va l ue i s l e ss se nsi ti ve to r i si ng c ommod i ty pr i c e l e ve l s tha n the a ve r a g e g r i d powe r pr i c e f or a house hol d c ustome r c onsumpti on pr of i l e.13 T he r e f or e,the i nc ome f r om e xc e ss f e e d-i n g r ows pr opor ti ona l l y sl owe r a t hi g he r c omm

208、od i ty pr i c e l e ve l s tha n the g r i d powe r pr i c e,r e sul ti ng i n ove r a l l sa vi ng s i nc r e a si ng pr opor ti ona l l y sl owe r.T hi s e f f e c t i s pr e va l e nt i n b oth I ta l y a nd S pa i n,b ut i n S pa i n i t i s vi si b l e to a muc h l e sse r e xte nt d ue to a)t

209、he muc h l owe r e l e c tr i c i ty pr i c e l e ve l a nd b)g e ne r a l l y hi g he r f ul l l oa d hour s c ounte r a c ti ng thi s e f f e c t.13T o f ur the r e xpa nd on pr i c e c a nni b a l i za ti on:the c a l c ul a ti on of a)the c ost f or b uyi ng e l e c tr i c i ty f or a house hol

210、d pr of i l e or b)the r e ve nue f or se l l i ng sol a r sur pl use s a r e b oth b a se d on vol ume-we i g hte d a ve r a g e hour l y powe r pr i c e s.Compa r e d to the a ve r a g e of a l l hour s whe n house hol d s g e t powe r f r om the g r i d,sol a r e ne r g y i n DE,I T a nd ES te nd

211、 s to b e f e d i nto the g r i d mostl y d ur i ng hour s of a l r e a d y hi g h(sol a r)suppl y a nd l owe r pr i c e s.Dur i ng the se hour s,l e ss of the e xpe nsi ve (g a s)powe r pl a nts a r e use d to me e t e l e c tr i c i ty d e ma nd,a s the syste m c a n i nste a d use the va stl y a

212、va i l a b l e c he a p sol a r e ne r g y suppl y.T he a ve r a g e of a l l pr i c e s i n the se sunny hour s r e sul ts i n the sol a r ma r k e t va l ue.N ow,i f g a s pr i c e s r i se,powe r pr i c e s i n g a s-i nte nsi ve hour s r i se pr opor ti ona l l y str ong e r tha n powe r pr i c

213、e s i n hour s d omi na te d b y r e ne wa b l e suppl y.S i nc e the a ve r a g e pr i c e f or house hol d c onsume r s c onta i ns a g r e a te r sha r e of g a s-i nte nsi ve hour s,i t r i se s str ong e r tha n the sol a r ma r k e t va l ue.FIGURE 23 S CENAR I OS F OR ANNU AL I S ED S AV I NG

214、S F R OM P V AND P V+HP I N I T AL Y 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000Euro saved per year(EUR)PVPV+HPNew normalReturn-to-crisisFossil dumpingFIGURE 24 S CENAR I OS F OR ANNU AL I S ED S AV I NGS F R OM P V AND P V+HP I N%I N I T AL YAnnual energy bill savings in%PVPV+HP0102030405060708090 S OL AR P OWER

215、 EU R OP E 2023S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 27EU S ol a r J ob s R e por t 2021Bo x 5.Lo an-based so lu tio n s to sp r ead o u t in vestmen t,lo wer in itial exp en ses,an d get it back so o n er.P a yi ng 100%of a sol a r P V pr oj e c t upf r ont mi g ht pose a n i nve stme nt hur d l e e ve n

216、 f or mi d d l e-c l a ss f a mi l i e s i n tod a ys i nf l a ti ona r y e nvi r onme nt,a nd i ts g e tti ng mor e c ha l l e ng i ng f or a hi g he r i nve stme nt whe n i nc l ud i ng he a t pumps.R e c e ntl y,mor e a nd mor e sol a r i nsta l l a ti on c ompa ni e s ha ve b e e n suc c e ssf u

217、l l y of f e r i ng i nnova ti ve wa ys to spr e a d c osts f or house hol d s thr oug h l e a si ng or r e nti ng mod e l s f or a sol a r pl us he a t pump pr oj e c t.Wha t a b out tr a d i ti ona l l oa ns tha t ha ve b e e n f r e que ntl y use d to f i na nc e P V i nve stme nts i n the pa st?

218、T o mod e l the i mpa c t of d e b t on syste m b r e a k-e ve n,we ha ve mod e l l e d a 20/8 0 e qui ty-d e b t r a ti o,a ssumi ng tha t 20%of the syste m i s pa i d b y c a sh,whi l e the 8 0%r e ma i ni ng i s f i na nc e d vi a a l oa n.I t shows tha t d e b t si g ni f i c a ntl y i mpa c ts

219、the ti me b e f or e b r e a k-e ve n.T he b r e a k-e ve n poi nt i s r e a c he d whe n the house hol d ha s sa ve d a s muc h mone y a s i t ha s i ni ti a l l y spe nt.I n othe r wor d s,i t i s the numb e r of ye a r s i t ta k e s f or a house hol d s to g e t b a c k the 20%c ost of the syste

220、 m i t ha s f i na nc e d wi th c a sh.T he r e st of the l oa n i s f i na nc e d b y the sa vi ng s ma d e b y the sol a r P V +he a t pump syste m on the e ne r g y b i l l s,whi c h,i n our mod e l,a r e a l wa ys hi g he r tha n the monthl y l oa n r e pa yme nt.T he d i f f e r e nc e b e twe

221、e n the sa vi ng s ma d e thr oug h the sol a r P V +he a t pump syste m a nd the l oa n r e pa yme nts i nf l ue nc e s the ti me b e f or e the 20%i ni ti a l i nve stme nt i s pa i d b a c k a s we l l.F i g ur e 23 d e sc r i b e s thr e e d i f f e r e nt i nte r e st r a te l e ve l s a nd the

222、 i r i mpa c t on the b r e a k-e ve n ti me,f or the i nve stme nt i n a sol a r P V syste m wi th a he a t pump.A 3%r a te a l l ows a G e r ma n house hol d to r e a c h b r e a k-e ve n wi thi n the e sti ma te d l i f e ti me of a he a t pump(a b out 15 ye a r s).S pa ni sh house hol d s woul d

223、 f i na nc i a l l y b e ne f i t f r om a l oa n i f the i nte r e st r a te i s b e l ow the 4-5%r a ng e.I ta l i a n house hol d s on the othe r ha nd a r e a b l e to e nd ur e hi g h i nte r e st r a te s a b ove 5%i f tha t a l l ows the m to spr e a d out the i nve stme nt.I n tod a ys c r e

224、 d i t ma r k e t,i nte r e st r a te s a r e muc h hi g he r tha n onl y 1 ye a r a g o.Ob ta i ni ng a c c e pta b l e l oa n l e ve l s f or ms a n i nc r e a si ng ob sta c l e,e spe c i a l l y f or l ow-i nc ome house hol d s tha t woul d b e ne f i t the most f r om e ne r g y sa vi ng s.Ac c

225、 e ss to g ove r nme nt-suppor te d l ow-i nte r e st l oa ns i s the r e f or e e sse nti a l to b oost the d e ve l opme nt of sol a r P V +he a t pump te c hnol og i e s(se e pol i c y r e c omme nd a ti ons,p.31).FIGURE 25 T I ME BEF OR E BR EAK-EV EN I N T HE NEW NOR MAL S CENAR I O051015202530

226、Years100%equity80%debt at 5%for 20 years80%debt at 4%for 20 years80%debt at 3%for 20 years80%debt at 2%for 20 years80%debt at 1%for 20 yearsSpainItalyGermany S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20232 Key r esu lts/c onti nue dS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 282.3.Retu r n s o f n ew PV+HP in vestmen ts:Str o n

227、 g p o licy su p p o r t is n eeded to make in vestmen t in n ew so lar PV an d electr icity-based heat techn o lo gies attr active to mo r e ho u seho lds.S o f a r,the r e por t ha s l ook e d a t c osts a nd g a s sa vi ng s i n 2022 a nd f ol l owi ng ye a r s f or house hol d s tha t a l r e a

228、d y i nve ste d i n sol a r P V a nd e l e c tr i f i e d he a t te c hnol og i e s b e f or e the e ne r g y c r i si s.T he r e sul ts a r e str i k i ng;house hol d s tha t ha d the oppor tuni ty to d e c a r b oni se the i r he a t g e ne r a ti on e a r l y ha ve b e e n e nj oyi ng sub sta nti

229、 a l e ne r g y a nd c ost sa vi ng s whi l e the y he l pe d to sub sta nti a l l y r e d uc e g a s d e ma nd.T hi s a l so e xpl a i ns why the r oof top sol a r a nd he a t pumps ma r k e ts soa r e d i n 2022.T hi s suc c e ss stor y shoul d nt l e a d to c ompl a c e nc y or b e ta k e n f or

230、g r a nte d.T he r e i s sti l l se ve r e c onc e r n a b out sa f e g a s suppl y f or wi nte r 2023-24.T he i nf l a ti ona r y e nvi r onme nt i n Eur ope ha s d r i ve n hi g h i nte r e st r a te s a nd hi g h ma te r i a l c osts.Al l thi s,a l ong si d e a se ve r e l a c k of i nsta l l e r

231、 s,a ug me nts the pr i c e s f or b oth sol a r syste ms a nd he a t pump i nsta l l a ti ons.Mor e ove r,e ne r g y pr i c e s ha ve d e c r e a se d,whi c h b e g s the c r uc i a l que sti on;wi l l the i mme d i a te i nve stme nt c a se i n the se d e c a r b oni si ng a nd e ne r g y se c ur

232、e te c hnol og i e s r e ma i n a ttr a c ti ve?I f not,wha t ne e d s to b e d one to b r i ng the b e ne f i ts of g a s-f r e e home s to l a r g e r pa r ts of the popul a ti on?Looking at s olar PV alone,the pa yb a c k ti me i n G e r ma ny va r i e s l i ttl e b e twe e n sc e na r i os f r o

233、m 17 to 20 ye a r s.T he g a p i s wi d e st i n S pa i n whe r e the i nve stme nt i s r e tur ne d b e twe e n 12 a nd 25 ye a r s.I ta l y shows a r a ng e b e twe e n 11 to 17 ye a r s.Whi l e the mod e l house hol d i n G e r ma ny r e qui r e s the l ong e st pa yb a c k of 17 ye a r s i n the

234、 hi g h-g a s pr i c e R e tur n-to-Cr i si s sc e na r i o,i t i s not muc h l ong e r i n the l ow-e ne r g y g a s pr i c e F ossi l Dumpi ng sc e na r i o.T he r e f or e,the G e r ma n c a se shows the l owe st se nsi ti vi ty of pa yb a c k ti me s to c ommod i ty pr i c e l e ve l s.T hi s i

235、s d ue to the c ompa r a ti ve l y l ow sol a r f ul l-l oa d hour s thr oug hout a ye a r.I n I ta l y a nd pa r ti c ul a r l y i n sunny S pa i n,the se nsi ti vi ty i s,i n tur n,muc h hi g he r.FIGURE 26 P AY BACK T I MES OF P V I N GER MANY,S P AI N AND I T AL Y051015202530YearsGermanySpainIta

236、lyNew normalFossil dumpingReturn-to-crisis S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 29Whe n l ook i ng a t b oth PV and PV+HP,the i r pa yb a c k ti me s va r y e nor mousl y d e pe nd i ng on the c ommod i ty g a s pr i c e.Assumi ng 100%e qui ty i nve stme nt,the d i f f e r e

237、nc e b e twe e n hi g h a nd l ow g a s pr i c e a ssumpti ons l e a d s pa yb a c k ti me s to swi ng b e twe e n 11 ye a r s a nd ove r 30 ye a r s.Whe n c ompa r i ng the thr e e c ountr i e s i n the N e w N or ma l sc e na r i o,I ta l y shows muc h shor te r pa yb a c k ti me s of 14 ye a r s.

238、T he d r i ve r f or thi s i s a c omb i na ti on of c ompa r a ti ve l y hi g h f ul l l oa d hour s hi g he r tha n G e r ma ny,l owe r tha n S pa i n a nd the hi g he st e l e c tr i c i ty pr i c e s a mong the thr e e c ountr i e s.Be c a use of he a t pumps hi g he r i nve stme nt c ost tha n

239、f or a c ompa r a b l e sol a r P V syste m,the pa yb a c k ti me i s g e ne r a l l y l ong e r,a nd the sa vi ng s c ounte r b a l a nc e d b y the hi g he r e l e c tr i c i ty ne e d s,d e spi te the r e pl a c e me nt of the f ossi l g a s b oi l e r.Whe n l ook i ng a t the pa yb a c k ti me s

240、 f or ne w sol a r P V a nd ne w sol a r P V +he a t pump,the y d e c r e a se i n the N e w N or ma l sc e na r i o c ompa r e d to the F ossi l Dumpi ng sc e na r i o,whi l e i t d oe snt f or H P onl y.H owe ve r,the hi g he r the g a s pr i c e,the b e tte r the i nve stme nt i n sol a r P V a n

241、d he a t pump b e c ome c ompa r e d to P V a l one,tr a nsl a ti ng i nto hi g he r sa vi ng s a nd f a ste r pa yb a c k ti me s.T hi s d i f f e r e nc e i n pa yb a c k ti me b e twe e n P V a l one a nd P V+H P hi g hl i g hts the i mpor ta nc e of d e pl oyi ng the two te c hnol og i e s si mu

242、l ta ne ousl y.A sol a r P V i nsta l l a ti on c ompl e me nts a house hol d s he a t pump a nd f ul f i l s a si g ni f i c a nt e xte nt of i ts e l e c tr i c i ty ne e d s.T he sa vi ng s f or the two te c hnol og i e s tog e the r a r e the n hi g he r tha n f or e a c h i nd i vi d ua l te c

243、hnol og y.L ook i ng a t sol a r P V i n c omb i na ti on wi th he a t pumps,the i mpa c t of d i ve r g i ng g a s pr i c e s on pa yb a c k ti me s i s e ve n mor e d i sti nc t,a s most house hol d s i n the thr e e c ountr i e s of the r e por t a r e he a te d wi th g a s.I n G e r ma ny,d e pe

244、 nd i ng on g a s pr i c e,the pa yb a c k ti me c a n b e a s l ow a s 15 ye a r s b ut a l so twi c e a s hi g h i n the F ossi l Dumpi ng sc e na r i o.T he pa tte r n i s si mi l a r i n S pa i n,b ut wi th a n e ve n l a r g e r d i f f e r e nc e of 19 ye a r s b e twe e n the F ossi l Dumpi n

245、g a nd the R e tur n-to-Cr i si s sc e na r i o,whe n the i nve stme nt woul d b e pa i d b a c k i n 11 ye a r s.T hi s poi nts to the i mpor ta nc e of pol i c y.I n the se ti me s of g a s c r i si s,pol i c y f r a me wor k s ne e d to suppor t house hol d s i n swi tc hi ng of f the g a s a nd

246、of f e r c ohe r e nt pol i c y pa c k a g e s f or sol a r +e l e c tr i f i e d he a t.L ook i ng a t F i g.27,we se e tha t e ve n i n the l i k e l i e r N e w N or ma l me d i um g a s pr i c e sc e na r i o,pa yb a c k ti me s a r e sti l l c l ose to 20 ye a r s or mor e.I f pol i c y ma k e

247、r s wa nt to b r i ng the b e ne f i ts a nd b l e ssi ng s of g a s-f r e e home s to l a r g e r pa r ts of the popul a ti on,the se pa yb a c k ti me s shoul d b e a r ound 10 ye a r s or l e ss.FIGURE 27 P AY BACK T I MES OF P V+HP I N GER MANY,S P AI N,AND I T AL Y051015202530YearsGermanySpainI

248、talyNew normalFossil dumpingReturn-to-crisis S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 30Combining a PV s y s t em wit h a heat p u mp s imu lt aneou s ly p r ot ect s cons u mer s agains t any gas p r ice volat ilit y,and r edu ces t he r is k fr om r et ail elect r icit y p r ic

249、e hikes.The r ep or t ou t lines five p olicy r ecommendat ions which,t oget her,can r edu ce p ay back t imes for new s olar PV and heat p u mp s fr om ar ou nd 20 y ear s t o below 10 y ear s.Po licy Reco mmen datio n s 3 S MAFIGURE 28 P AY BACK T I ME F OR S OL AR P V AND HEAT P UMP I N GER MANY,

250、S P AI N AND I T AL Y 0510152025YearsGermanySpainItalyRecommended policies-lower end 30%additional CAPEX support 50/t CO2 priceRecommended policies-lower end 30%additional CAPEX support 50/t CO2 priceRecommended policies-lower end 30%additional CAPEX support 50/t CO2 priceCurrent policies-35%CAPEX f

251、or HP-electricity price cap 40 cent/kWh Current policies-HP support 500/kW(max.3,000)Current policies-23%tax credit for HPRecommended policies-higher end 50%additional CAPEX support 90/t CO2 priceRecommended policies-higher end 50%additional CAPEX support 90/t CO2 priceRecommended policies-higher en

252、d 50%additional CAPEX support 90/t CO2 price2219161611101188 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20231.Member States sho u ld p r o vide CAPEX su p p o r t.Mod e r a te i nc r e a se s i n CAP EX suppor t f or sol a r P V a nd he a t pump i nsta l l a ti ons si g ni f i c a ntl y r e d uc e s pa yb a c k ti me

253、 s.T he mod e l shows tha t a 30%i nc r e a se i n CAP EX suppor t r e d uc e s pa yb a c k ti me s b y 6-8 ye a r s f or a l l thr e e c ountr i e s.T he r e a r e se ve r a l opti ons to pr ovi d e CAP EX suppor t.Me mb e r S ta te s c oul d e i the r d i r e c tl y suppor t wi th a f i xe d a mou

254、nt(EU R)or a n a mount r e l a ti ve (%)to the CAP EX i nve stme nt,a nd the use d te c hnol og y.Al te r na ti ve l y,the y c a n of f e r i nd i r e c t suppor t,f or e xa mpl e b y c utti ng V AT (%)or of f e r i ng ta x c r e d i ts(%).I ta l y ha s suc c e ssf ul l y i mpl e me nte d str ong CA

255、P EX suppor t wi th i ts supe r b onus sc he me,whi c h a l l ows home owne r s to c l a i m a 110%ta x d e d uc ti on on the i r sol a r P V a nd he a t pump i nsta l l a ti on c osts.G e r ma ny of f e r s up to 40%f i na nc i a l suppor t f or he a t pumps.S uc h me a sur e s ha ve to b e ma i nt

256、a i ne d,a nd c oul d f unc ti on a s a n e xa mpl e to othe r c ountr i e s.2.Member States sho u ld o ffer lo w-in ter est r ate lo an s to citiz en s fo r so lar an d heat p u mp s.T hi s i s i mpor ta nt b e c a use hi g h i ni ti a l i nve stme nt i s a b a r r i e r f or l ow-i nc ome house ho

257、l d s i n pa r ti c ul a r,who pr of i t most f r om e ne r g y sa vi ng s.On top of thi s,Eur ope a n pr i me r a te s a r e on the r i se (3%),a nd ma te r i a l shor ta g e s a nd a se ve r e l a c k of i nsta l l e r s ha ve d r a ma ti c a l l y i nc r e a se d tota l syste m pr i c e s.T hi s

258、a l so i mpa c ts i nve stme nt i n sol a r P V pl us he a t pump a nd b a tte r y stor a g e te c hnol og y f or mi d d l e-c l a ss f a mi l i e s.S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 31FIGURE 29 P V +HP P AY BACK T I ME UNDER DI F F ER ENT CAP EX S UBS I DY L EV EL S55510101015151520202025252530303000

259、0101010202020303030404040505050New normal scenarioGermanyItalySpainYearsShare of CAPEX financed by public(%)S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2023U nque sti ona b l y,i nte r e st r a te s i mpa c t the r e pa yme nt ti me f or d e b t-f i na nc e d i nsta l l a ti ons.F i na nc i ng pr od uc ts a t a l owe

260、r i nte r e st r a te tha n ma r k e t r a te s a r e vi ta l to a c c e l e r a te sol a r P V +he a t pump sol uti ons,a nd qui c k l y d e c a r b oni se he a t.G ove r nme nts c a n g e ne r a te l ow i nte r e st r a te s f or d e d i c a te d te c hnol og i e s thr oug h va r i ous a ppr oa c

261、he s.Ce ntr a l b a nk s c a n i ssue l ow-i nte r e st r a te pr od uc ts f or d e d i c a te d te c hnol og i e s,f or e xa mpl e vi a g r e e n l oa ns.F ur the r mor e,the y c a n of f e r g ua r a nte e s or i nsur a nc e s,r e d uc i ng the r i sk s f or l e nd e r s a nd a c c or d i ng l y,r

262、 e d uc i ng i nte r e st r a te s f or c ustome r s.G ove r nme nts ma y a l so l e nd d i r e c tl y to c ustome r s,a t i nte r e st r a te s b e l ow pr od uc ts on the pr i va te ma r k e t.Our stud y shows tha t Me mb e r S ta te s shoul d a i m towa r d s l oa ns wi th 2%or l e ss i nte r e s

263、t r a te s.Wi th suc h r a te s,the i ni ti a l i nve stme nt ma d e b y house hol d s c a n b e r e pa i d wi thi n 5 ye a r s,whi l e the sa vi ng s ma d e on e ne r g y b i l l s a r e hi g he r tha n the r e i mb ur se me nt of the l oa ns.F i g.30 shows d i f f e r e nt c a shb a c k ti me s d

264、e pe nd i ng on d i sti nc t d e b t l e ve l s a nd i nte r e st r a te s.Assumi ng a 4%c ost of e qui ty,i nte r e st r a te s i nf l ue nc e the b r e a k-e ve n pe r i od mor e tha n a ny othe r pol i c y i nstr ume nts,r a ng i ng f r om 25 ye a r s i n G e r ma ny f or a syste m f i na nc e d

265、a t 8 0%wi th a l oa n a t 5%i nte r e st r a te,a nd d own to 5 ye a r s wi th a l oa n a t 2%.P a yb a c k ti me s i n G e r ma ny a r e pa r ti c ul a r l y se nsi ti ve to d e b t f i na nc i ng c ond i ti ons b e c a use of hi g he r tota l CAP EX (l a r g e st he a t pump syste m ne e d e d,hi

266、 g h l a b or c ost)a nd hi g he r sa vi ng s(hi g he st he a t d e ma nd).3 Po licy Reco mmen datio n s/c onti nue dS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 32FIGURE 30 T I ME BEF OR E BR EAK-EV EN I N T HE NEW NOR MAL S CENAR I O051015202530Years100%equity80%debt at 5%for 20 years80%debt at 4%for 20 years8

267、0%debt at 3%for 20 years80%debt at 2%for 20 years80%debt at 1%for 20 yearsSpainItalyGermany S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20233.Member States sho u ld en d all CAPEX an d OPEX su p p o r t fo r r esiden tial gas u se,an d co u n tr ies with high heatin g deman d sho u ld co n sider a car bo n p r ice flo

268、 o r via the EU Emissio n Tr adin g System fo r tr an sp o r t an d heatin g(ETS2).O ur mod e l l i ng shows tha t he a ti ng wi th sol a r a nd he a t pumps i s a l r e a d y c ompe ti ti ve i n a l l thr e e ma r k e ts.F ossi l f ue l sub si d i e s f a vour i nc umb e nt,i nf e r i or te c hnol

269、og i e s,e ve n mor e so a s the e nvi r onme nta l c osts f r om f ossi l f ue l s a r e not r e f l e c te d i n pr i c e s.Our mod e l l i ng f ur the r sug g e sts tha t c a r b on pr i c i ng i n the r e si d e nti a l he a t se c tor wi l l ha ve d i f f e r e nt i mpa c ts a c r oss Me mb e r

270、 S ta te s.F i g.31 shows a si g ni f i c a nt i mpa c t of g a s pr i c e s on pa yb a c k ti me s f or sol a r P V a nd he a t pumps i n G e r ma ny,b ut a l owe r i mpa c t i n S pa i n a nd I ta l y.G e r ma ny ha s a c ompa r a b l y hi g h he a ti ng d e ma nd;the r e f or e,the c a r b on pr

271、i c e e f f e c ts monthl y he a ti ng c osts.Conve r se l y,i nc r e a si ng c osts f r om g a s he a ti ng l owe r the pa yb a c k ti me s of sol a r a nd he a t pump i nsta l l a ti ons.T he r e f or e,the g a s pr i c e ha s a str ong e r i nf l ue nc e on pa yb a c k ti me s i n c ountr i e s w

272、i th hi g h g a s d e ma nd.T o of f se t hi g he r c osts f or l ow-i nc ome house hol d s r e l a ti ve to the i r i nc ome,g ove r nme nts shoul d i ntr od uc e c ompe nsa ti on sc he me s.F or e xa mpl e,the Austr i a n g ove r nme nt c ompe nsa te s a l l c i ti ze ns f r om the r e tur ns f r

273、om c a r b on pr i c e s,whi c h c a n suppor t i nve stme nt i nto r e ne wa b l e te c hnol og i e s.S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 33FIGURE 31 P V +HP P AY BACK T I ME I N GER MANY,S P AI N,AND I T AL Y DEP ENDI NG ON CAR BON P R I CE 5551010101515152020202525253030304545456060607575759090901051

274、05105120120120New normal scenarioGermanyItalySpainSolar+HP:payback time in yearsCarbon Price in EUR/t CO2e S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20234.Member States sho u ld p r o mo te co llective self-co n su mp tio n (CSC),b e g i nni ng wi th i ts i nc l usi on i n the 2023 r e vi si on of the El e c tr i c

275、i ty Ma r k e t De si g n.T hi s r e vi si on shoul d e sta b l i sh a c l e a r l e g a l f r a me wor k,i nc l ud i ng a d e f i ni ti on,c ond i ti ons f or i ts i mpl e me nta ti on,a nd the r i g hts a nd ob l i g a ti ons of the pa r ti e s i nvol ve d.CS C a l l ows c i ti ze ns to sha r e a

276、nd r e c e i ve se l f-g e ne r a te d e l e c tr i c i ty wi th the i r ne i g hb our s on a c ontr a c tua l b a si s,i n a n qui c k-a nd a c c e ssi b l e ma nne r.CS C i nc e nti vi se s c i ti ze ns to ma xi mi se the i r r oof top pote nti a l a s e xc e ss e ne r g y c a n b e sha r e d a t

277、a pr of i t.S i mul ta ne ousl y,i t e nc our a g e s c onsume r s to shi f t l oa d s a s e ne r g y r a te s a r e b e l ow r e ta i l e l e c tr i c i ty pr i c e s.Whi l e e xi sti ng EU l e g i sl a ti on f or r e ne wa b l e s se l f-c onsumpti on,pe e r-to-pe e r tr a d i ng,a nd e ne r g y c

278、 ommuni ti e s pr ovi d e s no g ui d a nc e f or CS C,the ne c e ssa r y f r a me wor k i s a l r e a d y suc c e ssf ul l y i mpl e me nte d i n P or tug a l a nd F r a nc e,a nd pa r ti a l l y i mpl e me nte d i n S pa i n,Be l g i um,L i thua ni a,a nd S l ove ni a.Col l e c ti ve se l f-c onsu

279、mpti on i nc e nti vi se s house hol d s to ma xi mi se the i r r oof top sol a r i nsta l l a ti ons,i n tur n a l l owi ng the m to powe r a l a r g e r sha r e of the i r e l e c tr i c i ty d e ma nd wi th se l f-g e ne r a te d e ne r g y,l i k e he a t pumps b ut a l so e l e c tr i c ve hi c

280、l e s.Ma tc hi ng of d e ma nd a nd g e ne r a ti on pr of i l e s shows tha t c oupl i ng home e l e c tr i f i c a ti on wi th on-si te sol a r P V g e ne r a ti on ha s i mpor ta nt syste m-wi d e b e ne f i ts.S ol a r c a n d e l i ve r 38%to 62%of the he a t pumps e l e c tr i c i ty d e ma nd

281、 i n a ye a r wi th a ve r a g e we a the r c ond i ti ons f or the mod e l l e d house hol d s i n G e r ma ny,S pa i n,a nd I ta l y.T ha t me a ns sol a r powe r e d home e l e c tr i f i c a ti on mi ti g a te s g r i d c ong e sti on,a nd the c a nni b a l i sa ti on of sol a r g e ne r a ti on

282、 r e tur ns.We e xpe c t thi s pote nti a l to i nc r e a se i n the f utur e,whe n a d d i ti ona l d e ma nd r e sponse te c hnol og i e s wi l l b r i ng mor e syste m f l e xi b i l i ty.5.Member States,in clu din g lo cal au tho r ities,sho u ld assess the n eed fo r electr ician s an d in stal

283、ler s,an d set u p tr ain in g an d u p skillin g p r o gr ams.In additio n,they sho u ld establish fr amewo r ks,bo th at the in dividu al an d co mp an y level,co mp r isin g o f fin an cial in cen tives fo r in stan ce thr o u gh tax r edu ctio n s.T he se me a sur e s shoul d b e i nc l ud e d u

284、nd e r Me mb e r S ta te s N a ti ona l Ene r g y a nd Cl i ma te P l a ns.L i mi te d a va i l a b i l i ty of e l e c tr i c i a ns wa s the ma i n b ottl e ne c k f or sol a r P V a nd he a t pump d e pl oyme nt i n 2022.T hi s l e a d sol a r P V i nsta l l a ti on c osts to i nc r e a se b y 20

285、%,a nd some ti me s b y mor e a s house hol d s l ook a t i nsta l l i ng r e ne wa b l e e ne r g y te c hnol og i e s.H a vi ng a suf f i c i e nt numb e r of e l e c tr i c i a ns a nd i nsta l l e r s on the ma r k e t wi l l b oth a c c e l e r a te the d e pl oyme nt of r e ne wa b l e e ne r

286、g y a nd r e d uc e pa yb a c k ti me s.3 Po licy Reco mmen datio n s/c onti nue dS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 34Metho do lo gy T hi s r e por t e va l ua te s c ost,sa vi ng s,a nd pa yb a c k ti me of house hol d s i nve sti ng i n ne w c l e a n te c hnol og i e s i n 2022.We l ook e d a t thr

287、 e e c a se s:Ca se 1,a r e si d e nti a l f a mi l y house wi th a ne w sol a r P V syste m;Ca se 2,a house wi th ne w he a t pump;a nd Ca se 3,a house wi th ne w sol a r P V a nd he a t pump syste ms.We c onsi d e r e d thr e e c ountr i e s G e r ma ny,S pa i n,a nd I ta l y,b e i ng thr e e l a

288、r g e Eur ope a n e c onomi e s tha t ha ve b e e n l a r g e l y d e pe nd e nt on na tur a l g a s f or he a ti ng.We a l so e va l ua te d d i f f e r e nt te c hnol og i e s suc h a s he a ti ng r od s a nd a i r c ond i ti one r s.H e a ti ng r od s r e pr e se nt a c he a p a nd e a si l y d e

289、 pl oye d he a ti ng te c hnol og y,whi c h i s qui te popul a r i n a f e w EU c ountr i e s,l i k e G e r ma ny a nd Austr i a;AC i s ve r y c ommon i n sunny c ountr i e s,l i k e I ta l y a nd S pa i n.T he c a sh f l ow r e sul ts a r e b a se d on hour l y si mul a ti on of on-si te l oa d s f

290、 or e l e c tr i c i ty,the r ma l he a ti ng a nd r e spe c ti ve stor a g e te c hnol og i e s a s we l l a s the i r i nte r pl a y(e.g.to wha t e xte nt e xc e ss powe r c a n b e tr a nsf or me d to the r ma l he a t a nd stor e d f or l a te r use).F or thi s ma tte r,c ountr y-spe c i f i c l

291、 oa d pr of i l e s f or e a c h of the thr e e c ountr i e s we r e e i the r c ompute d b a se d on we a the r d a ta (he a t,AC,sol a r)or d r a wn f r om pub l i c sour c e s(house hol d sta nd a r d l oa d pr of i l e s f or e l e c tr i c i ty).A se l e c te d ove r vi e w of the a ssumpti ons

292、 ma d e f or a ve r a g e f a mi l y home s i n DE,ES a nd I T i s pr e se nte d i n the ta b l e b e l ow.T he e c onomi c s of suc h g r e e n i nve stme nts we r e c ompa r e d to our b a se-c a se,a house sour c i ng i ts e nti r e e l e c tr i c i ty f r om the g r i d a nd usi ng a sta nd a r

293、d g a s b oi l e r f or he a ti ng.T o a sse ss how the e ne r g y tr a nsi ti on c a n b e a c c e l e r a te d a t l a r g e sc a l e i n ti me s of e ne r g y a nd c l i ma te c r i se s,the f ol l owi ng si tua ti on wa s c onsi d e r e d:“Wha t i f we c ha ng e i nc umb e nt f ossi l g a s b oi

294、 l e r s i mme d i a te l y”i nste a d of wa i ti ng f or a na tur a l r ol l out of g a s b oi l e r s whe n r e a c hi ng e nd-of-l i f e.F or thi s r e a son the oppor tuni ty c ost of r e pl a c i ng a n ol d g a s b oi l e r a t i ts e nd of l i f e wa s not ta k i ng i nto a c c ount f or thi

295、s r e por t.Whi l e thi s c onsi d e r a ti on woul d ha ve i mpr ove d pa yb a c k,a f ul l tr a nsi ti on a wa y f r om f ossi l f ue l s b a se d r e si d e nti a l he a ti ng woul d ta k e too l ong f or the str ong l y g a s-d e pe nd e nt c ountr i e s i n thi s r e por t.T he r e por t f i r

296、st a na l yse d the r e sul ts f or P V+H P syste m i n ope r a ti on i n the e ne r g y c r i si s ye a r 2022 b y e va l ua ti ng va r i ous pol i ti c a l a nd te c hni c a l i nputs.T he c ur r e nt pol i c y f r a me wor k a f f e c ti ng e ne r g y c ost i n 2022 wa s c onsi d e r e d f or e a

297、 c h c ountr y(V AT c uts,CAP EX suppor t sc he me s,ta x a nd sub si d i e s on e l e c tr i c i ty,c a r b on pr i c i ng,pr i c e c a p on e l e c tr i c i ty or g a s,e tc.).S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 35An n exTABLE 1 OV ERV I EW OF T ECHNOL OGY CHARACT ERI S T I CS CONS I DERED P ER COUNT

298、R YPARAMETERUNITDEESITPower demand excl.heat k Wh_e l/ye a r 4,500 4,000 4,000 Ther mal heat demand k Wh_th/ye a r 20,000 12,000 14,000 PV cap acit y (op t ional)k Wp 8 7 7 HP cap acit y (op t ional)k W_e l 7 3 4 AC cap acit y (op t ional)k W_e l -55T o und e r sta nd the e c onomi c pe r f or ma nc

299、 e of the se ope r a ti ng syste m i n the f utur e,a nnua l i se d sa vi ng s a nd pa yb a c k ti me s we r e e va l ua te d f or the ne xt 10 ye a r s.I n a vol a ti l e f utur e e l e c tr i c i ty a nd g a s pr i c e ma r k e t,the a na l ysi s wa s b a se d on thr e e c ommod i ty pr i c e sc e

300、 na r i os:T he F ossi l Dumpi ng sc e na r i o,N e w N or ma l S c e na r i o,a nd R e tur n-to-Cr i si s sc e na r i o e a c h d r a w a d i f f e r e nt pa thwa y f or f utur e pr i c e s of e l e c tr i c i ty a nd g a s.T he pr i c e l e ve l s of the sc e na r i os a r e b a se d to a g r e a

301、t e xte nt on f utur e pr i c e s ob se r ve d a t e ne r g y e xc ha ng e s(e.g.EEX,T T F)a t the ti me of mod e l l i ng (b e g i nni ng of F e b r ua r y 2023):F ossi l Dumpi ng El e c tr i c i ty pr i c e:mi ni mum ye a r l y EEX b a se l oa d pr i c e14 of the ne xt 10 ye a r s G a s pr i c e:2

302、0/MWh(pr e-c r i si s l e ve l)N e w N or ma l El e c tr i c i ty pr i c e:a ve r a g e ye a r l y EEX b a se l oa d pr i c e of the ne xt 10 ye a r s G a s pr i c e:a ve r a g e pr i c e of the ne xt 10 ye a r s a c c or d i ng to T T F a nd H e nr y-H ub f utur e s(f or L N G g a s i mpor ts f r o

303、m U S)R e tur n-to-Cr i si s El e c tr i c i ty pr i c e:a ve r a g e of the 2024-2025 EEX b a se l oa d pr i c e s(c r i si s l e ve l)G a s pr i c e:a ve r a g e of the 2024-2025 T T F pr i c e s Al l pr i c e s shown i n the T a b l e 2 b e l ow r e pr e se nt l ong-te r m a ve r a g e pr i c e l

304、 e ve l s f or the e nti r e pa yb a c k pe r i od,d e r i ve d f r om d i f f e r e nt l ong-te r m sc e na r i o tr e nd s.S i ng l e-ye a r c ommod i ty pr i c e f l uc tua ti ons a r e not c onsi d e r e d,a l b e i t the y ma y ha ve si g ni f i c a nt i mpa c t on pa yb a c k ti me s.Whi l e t

305、he F ossi l Dumpi ng sc e na r i o d e sc r i b e s a sc e na r i o i n whi c h Eur ope woul d r e tur n to g a s pr i c e s a s l ow a s the pr e-c r i si s l e ve l,the R e tur n-to-Cr i si s sc e na r i o a ssume s l ong-te r m a ve r a g e pr i c e s to e sta b l i sh a t a pr i c e l e ve l c u

306、r r e ntl y ob se r ve d f or the ye a r s 2024-2025.T he se ye a r s a r e wi d e l y pe r c e i ve d a s sti l l-i n-c r i si s ye a r s,si nc e the r a mp up of L N G i mpor t c a pa c i ti e s i n Eur ope a nd e xpor t vol ume s f r om suppl i e r s on the wor l d ma r k e t i s sti l l ma r k e

307、 d b y unc e r ta i nty.H owe ve r,the a ssume d pr i c e l e ve l s a r e sti l l muc h l owe r tha n pr i c e pe a k s ob se r ve d i n the pe a k c r i si s ye a r 2022.Both sc e na r i os pr ovi d e a str e ss-te st to the r e sul ts of the N e w N or ma l sc e na r i o,whi c h r e pr e se nts a

308、 b e st g ue ss b a se d on the c ur r e nt a ve r a g e pr i c e e xpe c ta ti on of f utur e ma r k e t tr a d e r s.An n ex/c onti nue dS ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 3614Ba se l oa d pr i c e s a r e use d to d e te r mi ne the g e ne r a l e l e c tr i c i ty pr i c e l e ve l.T he whol e sa l

309、 e pr i c e house hol d pa y f or the i r c onsumpti on or r e c e i ve f or the i r sol a r f e e d-i n d e pe nd s on the hour l y pr i c e str uc tur e a nd the hour l y l oa d pr of i l e.P r of i l e va l ue e f f e c ts we r e qua nti f i e d b a se d on the c ountr y-spe c i f i c hour l y d

310、a y-he a d pr i c e str uc tur e i n 2022.TABLE 2 EL ECT RI CI T Y AND GAS P RI CE L EV EL S I N T HE T HREE S CENARI OS.PARAMETERUNITSCENARIODEESITWholes ale gas p r ice EU R/MWh R e tur n-to-Cr i si s 61 60 59 Wholes ale gas p r ice EU R/MWh N e w N or ma l 35 36 35 Wholes ale gas p r ice EU R/MWh

311、 F ossi l Dumpi ng 20 20 20 Wholes ale elect r icit y p r ice(bas eload)EU R/MWh R e tur n-to-Cr i si s 165 104 161 Wholes ale elect r icit y p r ice(bas eload)EU R/MWh N e w N or ma l 121 66 123 Wholes ale elect r icit y p r ice(bas eload)EU R/MWh F ossi l Dumpi ng 107 50 109 F or the mod e l l i n

312、g i t wa s a ssume d tha t P V,H P,P V+H P a r e pur c ha se d 100%on e qui ty wi th 4%c ost of e qui ty.As house hol d s of te n b uy the se syste ms on d e b t,i n one c a se stud y we a l so ha ve e sti ma te d d i f f e r e nt f i na nc i ng opti ons,nota b l y wi th the opti on to f i na nc e p

313、a r t of the ne w syste m vi a a l oa n.F i na l l y,our Ca pe x a ssumpti ons f or sol a r P V,he a t pump a nd he a ti ng r od a r e d i spl a ye d i n the T a b l e 3 b e l ow.I n the c ur r e nt i nf l a ti ona r y c onte xt,pr i c e e vol uti on c a n c ha ng e s qui c k l y a nd sub sta nti a

314、l l y i mpa c t the f i na l r e sul ts.S ol a r P owe r s H e a t 2023 37TABLE 3 CAP EX AS S UMP T I ON F OR S OL AR P V,HEAT I NG P UMPUNITCAPEX EXCLUDING VAT Solar PV EU R/k Wp 1,600 Heat Pu mp (Ger many)EU R/k W_e l 1,9 7 5 Heat Pu mp (Sp ain)EU R/k W_e l 2,356 Heat Pu mp (It aly)EU R/k W_e l 2,19 0 So lar Po wer Eu r o p e-Leadin g the En er gy Tr an sitio n R ond-P oi nt R ob e r t S c huma n 3,1040 Br usse l s,Be l g i um T +32 2 7 09 55 20 /F +32 2 7 25 32 50 i nf osol a r powe r e ur ope.or g /www.so lar p o wer eu r o p e.o r gISBN NUMBER 9789464669022