GSMA：2019年北美移動經濟報告（英文版）(44頁).pdf

1、Copyright 2019 GSM Association The Mobile Economy North America 2019 The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with nearly 400 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment provider

2、s and internet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences. For more information, please visit the GSMA corporat

3、e website at Follow the GSMA on Twitter: GSMA GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every country worldwide from Afghan

4、istan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players, to suppo

5、rt strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topics. Conten

6、ts EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2 1THE MOBILE MARKET IN NUMBERS7 1.1345 million subscribers in North America by 20258 1.2North America will be a leader in 5G adoption9 1.3Growth in digital consumers12 1.4A modest financial outlook as 5G investment gathers steam14 2MOBILE CONTRIBUTING TO ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ADDR

7、ESSING SOCIAL CHALLENGES 16 2.1Mobiles contribution to economic growth17 2.2Mobile technology and climate change20 3KEY TRENDS SHAPING THE MOBILE ECOSYSTEM22 3.15G is here: expectations versus reality23 3.2IoT: beyond connectivity27 3.3Edge computing: enabling 5G31 3.4Mobile identity: boosting onlin

8、e security34 4POLICY SPURRING INVESTMENT AND PROTECTING CONSUMERS 38 4.1Laying the regulatory groundwork for 5G39 4.2Halting the surge in robocalling with operator-led initiatives40 North America will be a 5G leader, bolstered by significant operator investment North America: the global benchmark fo

9、r mobile revenue and adoption Mobile contribution to North Americas economy will reach $1.2 trillion by 2023 Following commercial launches by the four largest US mobile operators, 5G is now a reality. As coverage expands across the US, and with Canada expecting to deploy 5G in 2020, 5G adoption is e

10、xpected to rapidly gather pace in North America. By the end of 2022, 24% of connections on the continent will be on 5G networks, rising to 46% by 2025 equivalent to 200 million 5G connections. 2019 will be the first year when 5G accounts for more than half of operators capex in North America, reflec

11、ting the shift from LTE to 5G deployments. This trend will continue through 2020-2025, with 87% of operator capex in North America to be allocated to 5G by the end of the period. Between 2018 and 2025, mobile operators will invest $353 billion in capex in the US, more than in any other country. High

12、 subscriber penetration coupled with historically high consumer spend on mobile services means the North American mobile market will be worth $280 billion in revenue in 2019. In this context, the US is the largest market for mobile worldwide around 50% greater than China. North America also has the

13、highest levels of mobile broadband and smartphone adoption globally. Moreover, it has some of the strongest levels of mobile engagement across a plethora of use cases, underpinned by rapid 4G adoption, which accounted for more than 75% of total connections in Q2 2019. In 2018, mobile technologies an

14、d services generated 4.2% of GDP in North America, which amounted to $937 billion of economic value added. The mobile ecosystem also supported 2.3 million jobs (directly and indirectly) and made substantial contributions to the funding of the public sector, with almost $123 billion raised through ta

15、xation. By 2023, mobiles contribution to the North American economy will reach almost $1.2 trillion (4.8% of GDP) as the US and Canada increasingly benefit from improvements in productivity and efficiency brought about by the increased uptake of mobile services. Executive Summary The Mobile Economy

16、North America 2019 Executive Summary 2 Opportunities in the 5G era The main opportunities to capture incremental revenue are 5G-based fixed wireless access (FWA) and 5G-based services targeted at enterprises. 5G FWA rollouts are underway in select US cities and will gain traction as more operators d

17、eploy 5G as an alternative to fixed broadband connectivity. Initial enterprise 5G deployments are likely to focus on faster data speeds and enhanced capacity. The release of new standards will then introduce additional 5G features, such as ultra-reliable low-latency communications (URLLC), to suppor

18、t further enterprise applications. A key priority of the Federal Communications Commissions (FCC) strategy under its 5G FAST Plan (Facilitate Americas Superiority in 5G Technology) is to make additional spectrum available for 5G services. The US has been quick to allocate high-frequency spectrum ban

19、ds for 5G networks; however, operators also need timely and sufficient availability of spectrum in mid-range bands for 5G to realise its full potential. Infrastructure policy review is another part of the 5G FAST Plan. Given 5Gs need for network densification, operators require access to public site

20、s (e.g. buildings and street lights) to deploy network equipment such as small cells, which are expected to be widely utilised in 5G rollouts. Enabling policies for 5G leadership The Mobile Economy North America 2019 Executive Summary 3 North America Unique mobile subscribers SIM connections Operato

21、r revenues and investment Excluding licensed cellular IoT 400m 321m 345m 1.0% Mobile internet users 282m 326m PENETRATION RATE 2018 20182018 2018 20252025 $272bn $317bn 4.8% 1.3% CAGR 201825 CAGR 201825 2.1% (% of population)85% 103% PENETRATION RATE (% of population) 108% 438m 2025 2025 CAGR 201825

22、 Operator capex of $384 billion for the period 2018-2025 of GDP 820,000 directly supported by the mobile ecosystem 73% PENETRATION RATE (% of population)80% 2018 83% 2.3bn 4G adoption Smartphone adoption 5G connections in 2025 200m (46% of total connections)* (% of total connections)(% of connection

23、s)* 2025 2018 74% 4G 2018 2018 5.9bn2025 2025 90% 82% 45% Internet of Things connections *Excluding licensed cellular IoT Total revenues Plus 1.5m indirect jobs Jobs EmploymentPublic funding Mobile ecosystem contribution to public funding (before regulatory and spectrum fees) $1.2tn $937bn Mobile in

24、dustry contribution to GDP $123bn 2018 2023 2018 2018 2018 20252025 $272bn $317bn 4.8% 4.2% of GDP 820,000 directly supported by the mobile ecosystem 2018 2.3bn 4G adoption Smartphone adoption 5G connections in 2025 200m (46% of total connections)* (% of total connections)(% of connections)* 2025 20

25、18 74% 4G 2018 2018 5.9bn2025 2025 90% 82% 45% Internet of Things connections *Excluding licensed cellular IoT 72% 72% 2018 2018 2025 2025 66% 56% SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX Caribbean 2025 45% 46% 9% 54% 11% 35% 2018 US TECHNOLOGY MIX 92% 86% 2018 2018 2025 2025 85% 83%

26、 SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION 4G 5G2G 3G 2025 2018 77%6% 17% 50%1%4% 45% Canada 81% 82% 2018 2018 2025 2025 78% 78% SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX 2025 74%3% 23% 42% 8% 49% 1% 2018 Defining the Caribbean Countries included: Anguilla; Antigua and Barbuda; Aruba

27、; Bahamas; Barbados; Bermuda; Cayman Islands; Curacao; Dominica; Grenada; Guadeloupe; Haiti; Jamaica; Martinique; Montserrat; Puerto Rico; Saint Kitts and Nevis; Saint Lucia; Saint Pierre and Miquelon; Saint Vincent and the Grenadines; Trinidad and Tobago; Turks and Caicos Islands; British Virgin Is

28、lands; US Virgin Islands 4G 5G2G 3G 4G 2G 3G The Mobile Economy North America 2019 Executive Summary 6 01 The mobile market in numbers The mobile market in numbers 7 The Mobile Economy North America 2019 Subscriber growth continues to slow, but there will still be almost 25 million new subscribers b

29、y 2025 Figure 1Source: GSMA Intelligence 1.1 345 million subscribers in North America by 2025 Million North Americas share of the global mobile industry Canada 2018 US 2025 CaribbeanTotal subscribersPenetration of population Over a quarter of global mobile revenue stems from North America Source: GS

30、MA IntelligenceFigure 2 278 297 15 321 17 345 32 29 RevenueSubscribers4G connections*5G connections*Smartphone connections 20182019202020212022202320242025 83% 85% *Excluding licensed cellular IoT 28%6%4%13%5% 26%6%9%7% The mobile market in numbers 8 The Mobile Economy North America 2019 4G to remai

31、n the dominant technology in North America until 2025, when 5G connections will surpass 4G connections Figure 3Source: GSMA Intelligence 1.2 North America will be a leader in 5G adoption % of connections Migration to 4G and 5G networks accelerates, as legacy network shutdown continues Some operators

32、 in North America have already begun to shut down 2G and 3G networks to refarm spectrum and provide additional data capacity on 4G networks. This trend will continue as operators in the region deploy 5G networks using a mix of low-, medium- and high-band spectrum. As legacy networks shut down, circu

33、it-switched voice networks will be upgraded to all-IP core networks using voice over LTE (VoLTE) technology. 14% 24% 4% 46% 33% 40% 79% 60% 77% 74% 67% 63% 50% 71% 45% 56% 7% 15% 14% 23% 28% 19% 11% 8% 9% 10% 12% 5%5% 7% 10% 4% 3%2%2%2% 2G 5G 3G 4G 2016201720182019202020212022202320242025 1% The mob

34、ile market in numbers 9 The Mobile Economy North America 2019 5G coverage will grow quickly, laying the foundations for strong 5G uptake in North America The US is vying for global 5G leadership with China, Japan and South Korea Source: GSMA Intelligence Source: GSMA Intelligence Figure 4 Figure 5 C

35、onnections (million) 5G as a percentage of total connections 20192018202020212022202320242025 250 200 150 100 50 0 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 46% 83% 5G connections (million) US 5G population coverage (%) Canada 5G adoption (% of total connections) China, Japan and South Korea Europe

36、30% 50% 50% 42% 20192018202020212022202320242025 The mobile market in numbers 10 The Mobile Economy North America 2019 IoT will benefit from enhanced 5G capabilities, with 3.6 billion additional IoT connections expected in North America by 2025 Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 6 Connections (billion)

37、 Consumer (others) includes trackers for children, the elderly and pets, as well as drones and robots Enterprise (others) includes fleet management and applications in agriculture, oil, mining and construction 5G in Canada and the Caribbean Mobile operators in Canada are making significant progress

38、towards bringing 5G services to the country. For instance, Telus has undertaken 5G trials using mid- and high-band spectrum and plans to launch 5G in September 2020. Though Bell and Rogers have yet to formally announce launch dates, both operators undertook 5G network trials in 2019. In the Caribbea

39、n, Flow (Liberty Latin America) recently conducted 5G trials in Antigua and Barbuda, while SFR (Outremer Telecom) began trials in Guadeloupe and Martinique. However, 5G is a longer- term technology for the region, as the 4G investment cycle is ongoing and consumer adoption is still in the early stag

40、es. Consequently, the majority of the Caribbeans 5G launches are not expected until the middle of the next decade, after significant improvements in device and infrastructure economies of scale. ENTERPRISE CONSUMER 2018 Smart home Consumer electronics Smart vehicles Wearables Consumer (others) Smart

41、 buildings Smart utilities Smart city Smart manufacturing Smart retail Health Enterprise (others) 2025 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.10.0 0.35.9 The mobile market in numbers 11 The Mobile Economy North America 2019 1.3 Growth in digital consumers Consumer engagement is rising across almo

42、st all smartphone activities in the US, fuelled by enhanced networks and unlimited price plans Source: GSMA Intelligence Consumer Insights Survey 2018Figure 7 % of US smartphone users engaging with certain use cases each month Traditional communications Mobile internet communications Social networki

43、ng Internet Apps Navigation Entertainment Digital commerce Financial services 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 20172018 The mobile market in numbers 12 The Mobile Economy North America 2019 Higher levels of consumer engagement will propel mobile data traffic in North America, highlighting

44、 the need for additional capacity provided by 5G networks Source: Ericsson, GSMA IntelligenceFigure 8 Mobile data traffic (GB per subscriber per month) Rogers goes unlimited, causing a surge in customer data usage In June 2019, Rogers became the first national mobile operator in Canada to offer an u

45、nlimited LTE service plan. Rogers stated that after six weeks, data usage among unlimited customers had increased by 50%, with 365,000 customers (around 3% of its total subscriber base) on the new plans. Bell and Telus have already responded by launching their own unlimited price plans, while smalle

46、r regional players (including SaskTel and Freedom Mobile) have ramped up marketing efforts on their unlimited data plans following the moves by national operators. 55.6 10.0 5.6x 2024 2018 The mobile market in numbers 13 The Mobile Economy North America 2019 1.4 A modest financial outlook as 5G inve

47、stment gathers steam Following a period of intense competition, revenue growth recovered in 2018, driven by increased uptake of higher-value unlimited plans in the US Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 9 Billion 2016201720182019202020212022202320242025 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Mobile revenu

48、eAnnual growth 1% 1% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% The mobile market in numbers 14 The Mobile Economy North America 2019 North American 5G capex will rise rapidly in 2019 to fund coverage expansion Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 10 Billion T-Mobile and Sprints merger will help deliver 5G On 29 July, the

49、US Department of Justice provided clearance for the merger of T-Mobile and Sprint into an entity called New T-Mobile. This will potentially create a mobile operator with the scale and investing power on level with the countrys two largest mobile operators (AT this eases congestion and lowers vehicle pollution. By using intelligent asphalt with embedded sensors that monitor traffic flow, Verizon is helping cities adjust traffic signals to shorten commute times and cut carbon emissions. 1. Carbon dioxide equivalent, the standard unit for measuring carbon