1、Chief Economists OutlookCentre for the New Economy and SocietyJanuary 20242Chief Economists OutlookDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result o

2、f a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.2024 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication

3、 may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.3Chief Economists OutlookChief Economists OutlookJanuary 2024This quarterly briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as consu

4、ltations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors,organized by the World Economic Forums Centre for the New Economy and Society.It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by polic

5、y-makers and business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global economy from geoeconomic and geopolitical events.The survey featured in this briefing was conducted in November-December 2023.4Chief Economists OutlookContentsExecutive summary _ 51.Global conditions remain subdued _ 7

6、Growth momentum is slowing across regions _ 7Tightening cycle may be nearing the end _ 102.Geopolitical rifts compound uncertainty _ 12Fragmentation clouds the outlook _ 12Governments continue to turn inward _ 153.Artificial intelligence takes the spotlight _ 18 AI may expand the productivity fronti

7、er _ 18Navigating the societal impact _ 20References _ 23Contributors _ 28Acknowledgements _ 29Cover:Unsplash5Chief Economists OutlookThe January 2024 Chief Economists Outlook launches amid protracted weakness in global economic conditions and widening regional divergence.Uncertainty that dominated

8、the outlook over the last year continues to cloud near-term economic developments:56%of chief economists expect the global economy to weaken over the next year,but another 43%foresee unchanged or stronger conditions.While there are positive developments,such as easing inflationary pressures and adva

9、nces in the field of artificial intelligence(AI),businesses and policy-makers face persistent headwinds and continued volatility as global economic activity remains slow,financial conditions remain tight and geopolitical rifts and social strains continue to grow.Regionally,the results highlight dive

10、rging growth patterns.The most buoyant economic activity is still expected in South and East Asia.China remains an exception,with the previous combination of strong and moderate growth expectations being replaced with largely moderate(69%)expectations for 2024.In the US and the Middle East and North

11、 Africa,the outlook has weakened since the September 2023 edition of the Chief Economists Outlook,with about six out of ten respondents expecting moderate or stronger growth this year.In Europe,77%expect weak or very weak growth in 2024.Elsewhere in the world,the expectations are for broadly moderat

12、e growth.The survey results reflect the improvement in the inflation outlook for 2024,with expectations for high inflation being pared back across all regions.The majority also expect that labour markets(77%)and financial conditions(70%)will loosen.This edition of the outlook focuses on two key phen

13、omena impacting the global economy geopolitical developments and advancements in generative AI.Almost seven out of ten chief economists expect the pace of geoeconomic fragmentation to accelerate this year.The majority of respondents say it will stoke volatility in the global economy(87%)and in stock

14、 markets(80%).There appears to be equally strong consensus that recent geopolitical developments will increase localization(86%)and strengthen geoeconomic blocs(80%).Almost six out of ten(57%)also expect it to increase inequality and widen the North-South divide in the next three years.Growing globa

15、l fragmentation is closely intertwined with the resurgence in industrial policies.About two-thirds expect these policies to enable the emergence of new economic growth hotspots and vital new industries,with the majority warning of rising fiscal strains(79%)and divergence between higher-and lower-inc

16、ome economies(66%).Executive summary6Chief Economists OutlookRespondents are almost unanimous in expecting these policies to remain largely uncoordinated between countries,with a different mix of defensive and enabling approaches in high-and low-income economies.The rapid advances in the field of ar

17、tificial intelligence put it on top of business and policy agendas in 2024.Respondents are notably more optimistic about AI-enabled benefits in high-income economies than in developing economies,including an increase in the efficiency of output production(79%)and innovation(74%),with a more mixed pi

18、cture regarding standards of living(57%).Chief economists are almost unanimous(94%)in expecting productivity gains to become economically significant in high-income economies in the next five years,compared to only 53%for low-income economies.The views are somewhat more divided on the likelihood of

19、generative AI resulting in a decline in trust across high-income(56%)and low-income(44%)economies this year.7Chief Economists Outlook1 14 4Much weakerSomewhat weakerUnchangedMuch strongerSomewhat stronger5332023Share of respondents(%)Growth momentum is slowing across regionsGlobal economic prospects

20、 remain subdued and fraught with uncertainty,according to the latest survey of chief economists.Although 56%of chief economists expect the global economy to weaken over the next year,20%foresee unchanged conditions and nearly a quarter expect stronger conditions(see Figure 1).These somewhat divided

21、results highlight that the ambiguity that dominated the outlook over the last year continues to cloud near-term economic developments.Figure 1.The global economic outlookLooking at the year ahead,what are your expectations for the future condition of the global economy?1.Global conditions remain sub

22、duedSource:Chief Economists Survey,November-December 2023Note:The numbers in the graphs may not add up to 100%because figures have been rounded up/down.The relative resilience of the world economy in the recent years will continue to be tested entering 2024.Global economic activity is stalling with

23、signs of slowdown in both the manufacturing and services sectors.1 Tight financial conditions weigh on consumer and business sentiments,2 while fiscal and monetary policy-makers are assessing trade-offs and sequencing for careful policy calibration.The economic backdrop is marked by protracted weakn

24、ess in global growth and widening divergence.The International Monetary Fund(IMF)forecasts a slight decline in global growth to 2.9%in 2024,down from 3%in 2023.3 The relative resilience in global figures continues to rely on the growth performance of emerging economies,while the momentum in advanced

25、 economies is fading.1 S&P Global,December 2023b.2 Lane,April 2023.3 IMF,October 2023.8Chief Economists OutlookHowever,growth forecasts remain vulnerable to an increased risk of shocks.The geopolitical rifts highlighted as a source of global economic volatility in the last survey4 have since increas

26、ed with new conflicts erupting or worsening in Africa,the Middle East5 and Latin America.6 While economic headwinds remain contained,these escalations risk rupturing supply chains and sending shockwaves beyond the commodity markets.Further uncertainty hinges on the outcomes of election cycles in the

27、 coming year.Regional performance expectations are highly varied(see Figure 2).Chief economists continue to see the most buoyant economic activity in the economies of Asia,although no region is slated for very strong growth in 2024.The outlook for South Asia and East Asia and Pacific remains positiv

28、e and broadly unchanged compared to the last survey,with 93%and 86%expecting moderate or stronger growth for South Asia and East Asia and Pacific,respectively.China is a notable exception as weak consumption,lower industrial production and distress in property markets weigh on the prospects of a str

29、onger rebound in 2024.7 The views of chief economists have also shifted,with strong(19%)and moderate(38%)expectations in the previous survey replaced with largely moderate(69%)expectations for 2024.Figure 2.Growth expectationsWhat is your expectation for economic growth in the following geographies

30、in 2024?Share of respondents(%)Very weakWeakModerateStrongVery strongMiddle East and North AfricaSouth AsiaChinaEast Asia and PacificCentral AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaLatin America and the CarribbeanEurope5United States71543546151630331351067236569405335911721256304152Source:Chief Economists Survey,Nove

31、mber-December 20234 World Economic Forum,September 2023a.5 Livni et al.,November 2023.6 Delcas,December 2023.7 IMF,October 2023.9Chief Economists OutlookThe change in the outlook for Europe is particularly stark,with the share of respondents expecting weak or very weak growth almost doubling to 77%s

32、ince September.In the US,the expectations are significantly weaker too,with 56%foreseeing moderate or higher growth in 2024,compared to 78%in the previous survey.Both economies confront tight lending conditions,a slowdown in manufacturing and exposure to geopolitical rifts.Expectations for growth ha

33、ve strengthened in Latin America and the Caribbean and Sub-Saharan Africa,with a slight uptick in the share of respondents expecting at least moderate growth to 70%and 65%,respectively.In Central Asia,the improvement is more pronounced with about 84%of respondents expecting at least moderate growth

34、in 2024,up from 66%in the previous survey.In the Middle East and North Africa,the expectations have slightly weakened reflecting broader uncertainty about the trajectory of the Israel-Hamas war and its implications for the wider region.Although 61%still foresee moderate or stronger growth in 2024,re

35、gional prospects remain clouded by weak oil demand8 and a sharp contraction in tourism.9 The near-term outlook for the regions discussed arrives after a protracted slowdown of growth momentum across all geographies.According to one estimate,average annual growth has declined from 2.0%in the early 20

36、00s to 1.4%in the post-COVID-19 period in advanced economies and from 5.8%to 1.7%in emerging and developing economies.10 The prospects of a rebound to pre-pandemic trajectory appear elusive:the IMF foresees 3.1%average annual growth over the next five years,the weakest medium-term outlook in decades

37、.Moreover,in its latest World Economic Outlook,the IMF points out that rates of convergence are slowing too,with the time needed to close half the gap in income per capita between emerging and developing economies and advanced economies increasing from 80 years in 2008 to 130 years in the latest est

38、imates.11While technological advances may give new impetus to global productivity,12 policies that enhance good-quality growth are needed to revive global momentum and balance the impact across the income groups.When asked about growth strategies available to developing economies in the current cont

39、ext,chief economists highlighted five in particular:laying a sound institutional framework for long-term growth,improving integration into global value chains,tapping into green transition opportunities,strengthening innovation capacity,digital infrastructure and a sound investment climate,and inves

40、ting in human capital and basic services.8 IEA,December 2023.9 S&P Global,November 2023.10 World Economic Forum,January 2024.11 IMF,October 2023.12 Pizzinelli et al.,October 2023.10Chief Economists OutlookTightening cycle may be nearing the endAt the start of 2024,global inflation continues to ease,

41、propping expectations of mild ebbing in interest rates this year.13 The global headline rates of inflation are projected to reach 4.8%,14 a sharp decline from 5.9%in 2023 and 9.2%in 2022.Core inflation is decelerating too,albeit at a slower pace,and is expected to reach 4.5%in 2024.15 The easing is

42、reflected in the latest survey results,with expectations for high inflation being pared back across all regions.The improvement in expectations is particularly marked for Europe and the US(see Figure 3),with the share of respondents expecting high or very high inflation declining from,respectively,7

43、1%and 47%in September to only 13%in the latest survey.However,two-thirds of chief economists still expect moderate inflation in Europe and the US.China remains an outlier in the other direction,with 76%of respondents still expecting low or very low inflation.Elsewhere in the world,the expectations f

44、or lower inflation strengthened,including East Asia and Pacific(30%),Central Asia(21%),and South Asia(19%),with the majority expecting moderate inflation.Despite a significant improvement in the outlook and broadly moderate expectations,more than a quarter of respondents still expect high or very hi

45、gh inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa(36%),Latin America and the Caribbean(26%),Middle East and North America(25%).Figure 3.Inflation expectationsWhat is your expectation for inflation in the following geographies in 2024?Very lowLowModerateHighVery highSub-Saharan AfricaLatin America and the Caribbean

46、Middle East and North AfricaSouth AsiaCentral AsiaEuropeUnited StatesEast Asia and PacificChina178111715443441720202659566358636367636724324262519171313Share of respondents(%)Source:Chief Economists Survey,November-December 202313 Smith,December 2023.14 IMF,October 2023.15 Ibid.11Chief Economists Ou

47、tlookIn the latest survey the majority of chief economists also expect labour markets(77%)to loosen in advanced economies a higher number than in September.They also expect financial conditions(70%)to loosen in the advanced economies(see Figure 4).These factors are reflected in the evolving monetary

48、 policy patterns.A notably more dovish communication of the US Federal Reserve at the December 2023 meeting16 signalled a possible pivot in the tightening cycle following a prolonged pause.While markets are pricing as many as six interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve17 and the European Central B

49、ank18 this year,the policy stance remains cautious on both sides of the Atlantic19 as policy-makers navigate challenging domestic and global conditions.The unusually high degree of uncertainty over economic and financial developments means the timing and extent of easing will pose a dilemma for poli

50、cy-makers that continue to navigate trade-offs between tightening too much and too little.Accumulated societal strains from domestic price pressures,protracted slowdown in economic activity and financial stability concerns will weigh on policy decisions in 2024.In the meantime,high interest rates co

51、ntinue testing the resilience of economies,with the number of corporate debt defaults rising above long-term averages across both advanced and emerging economies20 at the end of 2023.The World Bank also points to rising risks to sovereign debt sustainability,with debt servicing costs in low-income e

52、conomies projected to rise by 39%over the next two years.21It is also worth noting that inflation remains vulnerable to shocks in commodity markets and supply chains.A prolonged disruption in the Red Sea,22 escalation of regional conflicts,excessive redundancy and rising climate volatility23 weigh o

53、n the outlook.For example,the arrival of El Nio alone could increase global food prices by up to 9%.24 Figure 4.Global conditionsLooking at the year ahead,do you agree/disagree with the following statements?Labour market conditions will loosen in most advanced economiesFinancial conditions will have

54、 started to loosen in most advanced economiesStrongly disagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStrongly agree171713601076017Share of respondents(%)Source:Chief Economists Survey,November-December 202316 Federal Reserve,December 2023.17 Clarfelt et al.,December 2023.18 McDougall et al.,December 2023.19 European

55、 Central Bank,December 2023.20 S&P Global,December 2023a.21 World Bank,December 2023.22 Eavis,December 2023.23 Kuik et al.,December 2023.24 Adolfsen et al.,September 2023.12Chief Economists Outlook2.Geopolitical rifts compound uncertaintyFragmentation clouds the outlookGlobal economic developments a

56、re being profoundly shaped by deepening fragmentation.Almost seven out of ten(69%)chief economists are expecting the pace of geoeconomic fragmentation to accelerate this year(see Figure 5).Geoeconomically driven restructuring of the global economy has been evident for some time.The recent years have

57、 been marked by greater rivalry in the US-China relationship,partial splintering of international trade flows,25 and a sharp tilt towards protectionist policies.26 At the start of 2024,various alliances and simmering global conflicts are buoying concerns that global economic cooperation is faltering

58、.The gravity of the current momentum is not lost on leaders,however,with many warning of hardening cold war rhetoric and costly outcomes of fragmentation.27 When asked about the implications of recent developments(see Figure 6),chief economists continue assigning a prominent role to geopolitical fac

59、tors across macroeconomic and financial developments.About 87%expect recent geopolitical developments to stoke global economic volatility in the next three years,and eight out of ten expect it to heighten volatility in stock markets.Figure 5.Fragmentation outlookLooking at the year ahead,do you agre

60、e/disagree with the following statements?Globally the pace of geoeconomicfragmentation will accelerateStrongly disagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStrongly agreeShare of respondents(%)10215217Source:Chief Economists Survey,November-December 202325 WTO,September 2023.26 WTO,December 2023.27 Gopinath,Decemb

61、er 2023.13Chief Economists OutlookFigure 6.The impact of geoeconomic fragmentationIn light of recent geopolitical developments,how likely is it that the next three years will lead to significant.volatility in the global economy?.increase in localization of economic activity and investment flows?.sto

62、ck market volatility?.increase in geoeconomic blocs of economic activity and investment flows?.increase in inequality and growing North-South divergence?.ruptures in major global supply chains?.increase in globalization of economic activity and investment flows?136323572371313174723Share of responde

63、nts(%)672010350740353273173033333Extremely unlikelySomewhat unlikelyNeither likely nor unlikelySomewhat likelyExtremely likelySource:Chief Economists Survey,November-December 2023There is strong consensus that geopolitical developments will continue to impact economic activity and investment flows,w

64、ith 86%expecting an increase in localization and 80%saying geoeconomic blocs will strengthen.On the flipside,two-thirds of respondents say an increase in globalization is unlikely over the next three years.This is in line with the developments in supply chain strategies in recent years,marked by a n

65、otable shift in narrative and action to reshoring,nearshoring,friendshoring,and,more recently,de-risking strategies.28 The potential loss in global economic output from increased trade restrictions could reach up to 7%29 according to the IMF.The signs of retreat are emerging,with global trade declin

66、ing by 5%30 in 2023.On the other hand,trade within allied blocs has been gaining momentum,with 6.2%31 growth in the third quarter of 2023.The costs of fragmentation are projected to be significantly higher for low-income economies,reaching up to 4%of global domestic product(GDP),32 and almost double

67、 that of advanced economies.Although even a partial retreat in globalization will result in sizeable contraction for various blocs,any third-party countries gains are largely offset by the headwinds from the contraction in major trade partners.33 Besides the direct impact through trade channels,a re

68、treat in cooperation risks stalling,if not rolling back,decades of progress towards development targets.28 The Economist,May 2023.29 Bolhuis et al.,March 2023.30 UNCTAD,December 2023.31 Ibid.32 Bolhuis et al.,March 2023.33 Cerdeiro et al.,October 2023.14Chief Economists OutlookLooking at the next th

69、ree years,six out of ten chief economists said geopolitical developments will increase inequality and widen North-South divide.One notable point of disagreement among the chief economists is the likelihood that geopolitical tensions will result in a significant rupture of global supply chains in the

70、 next three years.Only 36%of respondents think potential disruptions are likely,another third are uncertain and a third believe they are unlikely.This is likely to reflect in part the effectiveness of restructuring strategies and increased resilience of supply chains in recent years.Figure 7.Industr

71、y outlookWhich sectors and industries are likely to be at an advantage or disadvantage in the geoeconomic outlook for 2024?Sectors and industries with negative outlookSectors and industries with positive outlook181710514174853Retail and wholesale of consumer goodsFinancial,professional,real estate s

72、ervicesManufacturingSupply chain and transport servicesLeisure and travelFossil-fuel energy and materialsAgriculture,forestry and fishingEngineering,construction and utilitiesLow-carbon energy(including renewables)Medical,healthcare and care servicesMining(excluding fossil fuels)Information technolo

73、gy and digital communications135578991111112000Source:Chief Economists Survey,November-December 2023When asked about the sectoral impact of the geoeconomic outlook,chief economists highlighted a range of industries where they expect a more negative outlook in 2024,including retail and wholesale of c

74、onsumer goods,fossil-fuel energy and materials,financial,professional and real estate services,leisure and travel,and manufacturing.15Chief Economists OutlookThe respondents are significantly more optimistic about the impact of recent developments on the outlook for other industries,including inform

75、ation technology and digital communications,mining,medical,healthcare and care services,and low-carbon energy(see Figure 7).Technology,mining and low-carbon energy,in particular,are expected to benefit from the projected 11%34 increase in the global demand for renewable energy and strategic competit

76、ion between the geoeconomic blocs as new industrial policies ramp up investments and demand for critical materials and components.35 The survey also asked chief economists what strategies businesses might adopt in the face of rising geoeconomic fragmentation in 2024.Three patterns feature prominentl

77、y.First,diversification,rather than isolation,remains the surest way to resilience in the times of heightened volatility.Second,investments in gradual de-risking and localization could unlock new supply chain opportunities.Lastly,search for talent and agility will be at the core of strategy planning

78、 and execution,with many multinationals having to juggle and adjust strategies across the geographies.Governments continue to turn inwardThe mounting concerns of deeper global fragmentation are closely intertwined with the resurgence in industrial policies over the recent years.Technological competi

79、tion and the race to secure supply chains for critical materials and other goods are blurring the lines between economic and national security objectives.This shift has been associated with a spike in the number of protectionist measures such as export restrictions that quadrupled to almost 35,000 o

80、ver the last decade.36 After more than a year since the launch of the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)and CHIPS Act sparked a global uptick in such large-scale initiatives,tens of billions are being funnelled into infrastructure,manufacturing,semiconductors and low-carbon solutions across geographies.37

81、 The results of the latest survey reveal uncertainty about the extent of investment and spending on supply-side policies such as tax credits and subsidies this year(see Figure 8),with 31%expecting no increase,31%uncertain and only a slightly higher proportion of respondents(37%)expecting an increase

82、.34 Economist Intelligence Unit,October 2023.35 IMF,October 2023.36 The Economist,July 2023.37 Agarwal,March 2023.Figure 8.Government support for supply-side policies Looking at the year ahead,do you agree/disagree with the following statements?Globally government investment and spendingon supply-si

83、de policies will increaseStrongly disagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStrongly agreeShare of respondents(%)3131343Source:Chief Economists Survey,November-December 202316Chief Economists OutlookAs governments experiment with industrial policy tools,the initiatives have multiplied in number and scale over t

84、he recent years,and at least 84 countries,accounting for 90%of world GDP,have adopted some form of industrial strategy since 2013.38 Two-thirds of chief economists say these policies are likely to enable the emergence of new economic growth hotspots and vital new industries(see Figure 9).While the e

85、fficiency of the approaches will take time to be gauged,regions are scoping opportunities to attract capital and talent.For example,the investments into the development of new semiconductor chip plants$20 billion in Ohio39 and$28 billion in Arizona40 have already sparked hopes about a new growth imp

86、etus to US manufacturing clusters.41The survey results suggest that keeping up with global competition and sustaining the policies in the future will come at a substantial cost,with 79%of chief economists saying that policy-makers will face an increasing trade-off between maintaining fiscal stabilit

87、y and building national industry champions.These economic costs risk becoming entrenched if the policies result in protracted market distortion.Looking at the next three years,58%foresee the possibility of industrial policies to create inefficiencies and unfair distortions within countries.The views

88、 are somewhat more divided on the impact on global supply chains.Only a slight majority(51%)expects a global tilt towards competing industrial policies to cause significant redundancies in global supply chains.Figure 9.The impact of industrial policyLooking ahead to the next three years,do you agree

89、/disagree with the following statements?Source:Chief Economists Survey,November-December 2023Policy-makers will face an increasing trade-off between maintaining fiscal stability and building national industry championsIndustrial policies in advanced economies will increase financial and technologica

90、l divergence between higher-and lower-income economiesIndustrial policies will enable the emergence of new economic growth hotspots and vital new industriesIndustrial policies will create inefficiencies and unfair distortions within countriesAn increase in competing industrial policies will lead to

91、significant redundancies in global value chainsStrongly disagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStrongly agreeShare of respondents(%)3110342472859710245977145524173148338 UNCTAD,June 2018.39 Intel,September 2023.40 Kinery,December 2022.41 McGahey,October 2023.17Chief Economists OutlookAmong the chief economis

92、ts surveyed,two-thirds also expect industrial policies in advanced economies to increase financial and technological divergence between higher-income and lower-income economies.This reflects the dual-track nature of the global return to industrial policy,with high-income economies implementing five

93、times as many industrial policies as lower-income economies.42 The difference is evident in the scope and scale of the initiatives too,as lower-income economies navigate tighter fiscal space.The survey also asked chief economists for their views on the future approaches to industrial policy.The resp

94、ondents expect governments to remain largely inward-focused across both high-and low-income economies,with divided views on whether they will focus on defensive or enabling approaches in the next three years(see Figure 10).About half of chief economists(51%)expect an increase in enabling policy appr

95、oaches focusing on technological development and widespread use of incentives and investments in high-income economies.Another 41%said high-income economies will focus more on achieving economic security with protective measures,including export restrictions.The results for low-income are almost equ

96、ally split,with a slightly higher share of respondents(34%)expecting countries to focus on defensive rather than enabling(31%)policies.The expectations of a wider adoption of joint industrial policies between countries are extremely low across both high-and low-income economies,despite its potential

97、 to mitigate the extent of the North-South divergence.Figure 10.Industrial policy outlookLooking at the different approaches to industrial policy globally,which do you expect to see more of over the next three years?Source:Chief Economists Survey,November-December 2023In high-income economiesIn low-

98、income economiesJoint industrial policiesCrisis response industrial policiesEnabling industrial policiesDefensive industrial policiesShare of respondents(%)3171731343524142 UNIDO,March 2023.18Chief Economists Outlook3.Artificial intelligence takes the spotlightAI may expand the productivity frontier

99、The rapid advances in the field of AI represent another potentially profound change to global economic activity.Despite a multitude of use cases43 from precision farming to automotive industry and logistics the uptake of AI has remained limited in scale since the deep learning boom of the 2010s.The

100、launch of large language models(LLMs)and generative AI tools,like ChatGPT and Bard,at the end of 2022 introduced drastically new possibilities44 by opening the technology to the general public.In the May 2023 edition of the Chief Economists Outlook,45 generative AI was already touted as a major tech

101、nological shift posing structurally new challenges to businesses and policy-makers,with 42%of respondents expecting the technology to become commercially disruptive by the end of 2023.Although that figure has increased to 50%for 2024 in the latest survey(see Figure 11),the results reflect an overarc

102、hing ambiguity about the trajectory and the extent of businesses uptake of generative AI,with 37%of respondents remaining uncertain and another 13%disagreeing.Previous waves of innovation have also traditionally been accompanied with excitement about potential economic gains.The onset of generative

103、AI is similar,with high expectations,although the full effect of the technology can take time to be realized and translated into economic data.46 Figure 11.Generative AI adoptionLooking at the year ahead,do you agree/disagree with the following statements?Source:Chief Economists Survey,November-Dece

104、mber 2023Generative AI(tools such as ChatGPT)will be commercially disruptiveStrongly disagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStrongly agreeShare of respondents(%)1337401043 Economist Intelligence Unit,June 2023.44 The Economist,April 2023.45 World Economic Forum,May 2023.46 Brynjolfsson et al.,December 2023.1

105、9Chief Economists OutlookThe latest survey points to a divergence in the outcomes between different income groups when it comes to the impact of generative AI on productivity within the year,with 79%expecting an increase in the efficiency of output production in high-income economies,compared to onl

106、y 38%for low-income economies(see Figure 12).The timelines within which AI-enabled productivity gains are expected to become tangible are vastly different too(see Figure 13).The chief economists are almost unanimous(94%)in expecting productivity improvements to become economically significant in hig

107、h-income economies within the next five years,including 57%expecting the benefits to emerge within the next three years.This is in sharp contrast with more conservative views about the prospects for low-income economies,where only a slight majority(53%)expect benefits to be visible within the next f

108、ive years,and another 47%say it will take more than five years.No respondents said productivity benefits will never materialize,reflecting an expectation that AI will have a sustained and far-reaching impact on the global economy.One estimate suggests that generative AI alone could boost global prod

109、uctivity growth by 1.5 percentage points a year and increase global GDP by 7%over a 10-year horizon.47 According to the most optimistic scenarios,48 a widespread deployment of AI could enable as much as a 30%increase in global output by the end of the century.Figure 12.The impact of generative AI on

110、 productivityLooking at the year ahead,how likely is it that generative AI will lead to increased efficiency of output production?Source:Chief Economists Survey,November-December 2023In high-income economiesIn low-income economiesShare of respondents(%)Extremely unlikelySomewhat unlikelyNeither like

111、ly nor unlikelySomewhat likelyExtremely likely171734103173483147 Goldman Sachs,April 2023.48 Davidson,June 2021.20Chief Economists OutlookFigure 13.The timeline of the AI-enabled productivity benefits Considering the pace of AI adoption to date,when do you think AI-enabled productivity benefits will

112、 become economically significant?Source:Chief Economists Survey,November-December 2023In high-income economiesIn low-income economiesShare of respondents(%)NeverAfter five yearsBetween three and five yearsBetween one and three yearsWithin the next year7473020337507The geopolitics of AI and different

113、 approaches to regulation49 will define the scale and geography of AI uptake in the coming years.When asked about the regions poised to see significant increase in productivity from higher AI adoption,chief economists are unambiguous in expecting the US,China,Europe,and East Asia and Pacific to bene

114、fit the most in the next three years.This is broadly in line with the geography of digital penetration and estimates suggesting that advanced economies are,on average,better poised to reap AI-enabled benefits.50 Although definitive leaders are yet to be established,the AI scene has been largely domi

115、nated by the US with the AI-related startups in the country attracting$26 billion in venture capital in 2023,six times more than those based in China,its nearest competitor.51In terms of the potential impact on productivity across sectors and industries,the chief economists foresee widespread benefi

116、ts across all industries.The most notable improvements are expected in knowledge-heavy industries,including information technology and digital communication,financial and professional services,medical and healthcare services,retail,manufacturing,engineering and construction,energy and logistics.The

117、views of chief economists are echoed across industry estimates,suggesting a possible increase in annual revenue in banking and pharmaceutical industries by as much as 5%.52 Almost three-quarters of AI-enabled productivity gains across industries will be enabled by improvements in research and develo

118、pment,customer services,marketing and sales,and software engineering.53 Navigating the societal impactPositive predictions about the economic gains from AI have been accompanied by broad-based anxiety about the possible societal,jobs and inequality implications of the technology.54 While any estimat

119、ions may be rapidly outstripped by the pace of change in the sophistication of LLMs and breadth of AI adoption,the latest survey of chief economists gauges the scope of possible impact of the recent development in generative AI.The results reveal a notable divergence in the outcomes between high-inc

120、ome and low-income economies(see Figure 14),consistent with the different prospects of productivity benefits.49 The Economist,December 2023.50 Pizzinelli et al.,October 2023.51 Zakaria,December 2023.52 McKinsey,August 2023.53 McKinsey,June 2023.54 Blackman,August 2023.21Chief Economists OutlookAlmos

121、t three-quarters of respondents expect generative AI to accelerate the pace of innovation(74%)in high-income economies,compared to only 31%expecting similar effect in low-income economies.As innovation and productivity gains from AI attract higher investments,the slower pace of progress in low-incom

122、e economies risks widening the technological and economic divide.55 The gap is visible when looking at the standards of living too:57%expect an AI-enabled increase in high-income economies,compared to only 41%for low-income economies.The potential gains from productivity benefits are in sharp contra

123、st with concerns about the risks of automation,job displacement and degradation.Almost three-quarters(73%)of chief economists surveyed do not foresee a net positive impact on employment in low-income economies,while another 17%are uncertain.In other words,the majority expect displacement.The views f

124、or high-income economies are slightly more divided,with 47%saying net job creation is unlikely this year and another 30%uncertain.One estimate suggests that up to 18%of work could be automated by AI globally,with advanced economies56 and occupations with predominantly routine and repetitive tasks57

125、facing higher exposure thus far.While the evidence of the broader effect on the workforce is still evolving,there are signs of consensus that AI is likely to transform rather than destroy Figure 14.The impact of generative AILooking at the year ahead,how likely is it that generative AI will lead to.

126、Share of respondents(%)Extremely unlikelySomewhat unlikelyNeither likely nor unlikelySomewhat likelyExtremely likelyHigh-income positive impact on employment?.decoupling of productivity from wages?.significant relocation of economic activity?.significant decline in trust?.increase in standards of li

127、ving?.acceleration of breakthrough innovation?Low-income economiesHigh-income economiesLow-income economiesHigh-income economiesLow-income economiesHigh-income economiesLow-income economiesHigh-income economiesLow-income economiesHigh-income economiesLow-income economies13171321317411777171318740302

128、32152171036367273030412414333323212834102743132375741102110134727334Source:Chief Economists Survey,November-December 202355 Alonso et al.,September 2020.56 World Economic Forum,September 2023b.57 Goldman Sachs,March 2023.22Chief Economists Outlookwork in the near term,58 with a potentially detriment

129、al impact on job quality.59 Such shifts in consumer power are likely to dampen growth across economies,although it is unclear if the magnitude would offset gains through productivity benefits.Another area of uncertainty is in the prospects of generative AI resulting in a significant relocation of ec

130、onomic activity or a decoupling of productivity from wages.Chief economists are almost equally divided for high-income economies.When it comes to low-income economies,a slight majority said that both relocation of economic activity(58%)and decoupling of productivity from wages(54%)were unlikely.The

131、recent evidence suggests that workers with AI exposure have thus far benefited from higher wage premiums.60 The long-term impact on wages at different skill levels will depend on the extent of productivity benefits and changes to job quality.Perhaps the most immediate and acute impact will be seen i

132、n the public and political space,with one estimate suggesting that up to 90%of online content could be AI-generated by 2026.61 While the regulation of AI is lagging behind the pace of adoption,generative AI tools have been found to reproduce historical patterns of inequality and social biases.62 The

133、 concerns about the risks of misinformation also spiked ahead of elections across the globe in the next year.For example,the number of websites posting AI-created misinformation has already increased by more than 1,000%since May 2023.63 The survey results reveal this concern,with 56%and 44%saying th

134、e generative AI will lead to a significant decline in trust in,respectively,high-income and low-income economies this year.The lack of consensus on some of the prospects discussed above reflects the ambiguity about the trajectory and full extent of the AI impact on workers and economies.Decisions ma

135、de today will change this trajectory and their impact will be felt by individuals,societies and economies in the years to come.58 Lawrence et al.,December 2017.59 OECD,July 2023.60 Ibid.61 Europol,April 2022.62 Nicoletti et al.,June 2023.63 Verma,December 2023.23Chief Economists OutlookReferencesAdo

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149、n Ohio”,29 September 2023,https:/ Energy Agency(IEA),Oil Market Report,December 2023,https:/www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-december-2023.International Monetary Fund(IMF),World Economic Outlook,October 2023,“Navigating Global Divergences”,https:/www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/10/1

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154、ial Times,6 December 2023,https:/ Bidens Industrial Policy Can Help Economically Distressed Places”,Forbes,31 October 2023,https:/ economic potential of generative AI:The next productivity frontier”,14 June 2023,https:/ Economists OutlookMcKinsey,“The state of AI in 2023:Generative AIs breakout year

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164、ow:Large Language Models and Jobs,September 2023b,https:/www.weforum.org/publications/jobs-of-tomorrow-large-language-models-and-jobs/.World Economic Forum,The Future of Growth Report,January 2024,https:/www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-growth-report/.World Trade Organization(WTO),“G20 tra

165、de policy direction becoming more restrictive amid continued slow trade growth”,18 December 2023,https:/www.wto.org/english/news_e/news23_e/trdev_18dec23_e.htm.World Trade Organization(WTO),World Trade Report 2023,September 2023,https:/www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/wtr23_e.htm.Zakaria,Far

166、eed,“The Self-Doubting Superpower”,Foreign Affairs,12 December 2023,https:/ Economists OutlookContributors The World Economic Forum would like to thank the members of the Community of Chief Economists for their thought leadership and guidance.We also thank the members of the broader core community o

167、f the Centre for the New Economy and Society for their ongoing commitment and contributions to addressing several of the factors presented in this outlook.Figures are based on 30 survey responses.We would like to thank,in particular,all community members who completed the survey and contributed to t

168、his edition of the Chief Economists Outlook through community discussions.We are grateful to our colleagues in the Centre for the New Economy and Society for helpful suggestions and comments,in particular to Jesse Caemmerer,Roberto Crotti,Philipp Grosskurth and Sriharsha Masabathula,in the Economic

169、Growth and Transformation team,and Silja Baller,Attilio Di Battista and Eoin Cathasaigh.Thank you to Martha Howlett and Laurence Denmark for copyediting,graphic design and layout.The views expressed in this briefing do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum nor those of its

170、Members and Partners.This briefing is a contribution to the World Economic Forums insight and interaction activities and is published to elicit comments and further debate.World Economic Forum Aengus Collins,Head,Economic Growth and Transformation,Centre for the New Economy and Society Kateryna Karu

171、nska,Insight Specialist,Economic Growth and Transformation,Centre for the New Economy and SocietySaadia Zahidi,Managing Director,World Economic Forum and Head,Centre for the New Economy and Society29Chief Economists OutlookAcknowledgementsMembers of the Community of Chief Economists Andr Almeida,SON

172、AE Mansueto Almeida,Banco BTG Pactual Musaab Almulla,Saudi AramcoShusong Ba,Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited(HKEX)Rima Bhatia,Gulf International Bank BSC(GIB)Marieke Blom,ING GroupPhilipp Carlsson-Szlezak,Boston Consulting GroupTomas Castagnino,AccentureJuan Cerruti,Banco Santander SASamy Ch

173、aar,Bank Lombard Odier Ahmet imenoglu,Ko Holding Pedro Conceio,United Nations Development Programme(UNDP)Gregory Daco,EY-ParthenonEralp Denktas,Eczacba HoldingErica Diniz Oliveira,IPaul Donovan,UBS Carsten Fink,World Intellectual Property Organization(WIPO)David Folkerts-Landau,Deutsche Bank Indermi

174、t Gill,The World BankPierre-Olivier Gourinchas,International Monetary Fund(IMF)Svenja Gudell,Indeed Jrme Haegeli,Swiss Re Management Karen Harris,Bain&Company Janet Henry,HSBC Holdings Fernando Honorato Barbosa,Banco Bradesco Beata Javorcik,European Bank for Reconstruction and Development(EBRD)Ira K

175、alish,DeloitteSeisaku Kameda,Sompo Institute Plus Christian Keller,BarclaysSteffen Kern,European Securities and Markets AuthorityRazia Khan,Standard Chartered BankRaja Asad Khan,Saudi National BankKarin Kimbrough,LinkedIn 30Chief Economists OutlookKyle Kretschman,Spotify Valrie Lemaigre,The Swiss Ba

176、nk of Geneva(BCGE)Gordon Liao,Circle Internet Financial Mario Magalhes Carvalho Mesquita,Ita Unibanco Giulio Martini,Lord,Abbett&Co.LLCHuw McKay,BHP Group Guy Miller,Zurich Insurance Gilles Moc,AXA Investment Millan Mulraine,Ontario Teachers Pension PlanDhiraj Nayyar,Vedanta Resources Jason Newton,N

177、utrienDirk-Jan Omtzigt,United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs(OCHA)Ralph Ossa,World Trade Organization(WTO)Eric Parrado,The Inter-American Development BankErik Peterson,KearneySandra Phlippen,ABN AMROSaad Rahim,TrafiguraDebora Revoltella,European Investment Bank(EIB)Nela

178、Richardson,Automatic Data Processing(ADP)Nadir Salar Qureshi,Engro Michael Schwarz,Microsoft Jorge Sicilia,BBVA Graham Slack,A.P.Mller-Maersk Ludovic Subran,Allianz Hal R.Varian,Google Eirik Waerness,Equinor Coram Williams,Adecco Group World Economic Forum9193 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/Genev

179、aSwitzerland Tel.:+41(0)22 869 1212Fax:+41(0)22 786 2744contactweforum.orgwww.weforum.orgThe World Economic Forum,committed to improving the state of the world,is the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation.The Forum engages the foremost political,business and other leaders of society to shape global,regional and industry agendas.