麥肯錫（McKinsey）：亞洲的未來 — 解鎖亞洲企業的價值與績效（英文版）(68頁).pdf

1、The future of Asia Decoding the value and performance ofcorporate Asia Discussion paper May 2020 Authors: Chris Bradley Wonsik Choi Jeongmin Seong Ben Stretch Oliver Tonby Patti Wang Jonathan Woetzel McKinsey Global Institute Since its founding in 1990, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has sought

2、 to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. As the business and economics research arm of McKinsey it is not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution. For further information about MGI and to download reports for free, please visit Contents 1. Understandi

3、ng Asias corporate performance 1 Asia is now home to 43 percent of the worlds largest companies 2 Asias capital paradox: Rapid scaling has not translated into economic profit 6 Three main drivers have lowered the profits of large Asian companies 9 Where do Asian firms outperform and underperform? 14

4、 Managing through volatility and short-term turbulence 17 Asia could unlock $440 billion to $620 billion of economic profit by improving firms performance and investing in value-creating sectors 18 2. Directions for corporate development 27 Pharmaceuticals and healthcare: Advanced Asia and China can

5、 drivedrug innovation, and Emerging Asia, Frontier Asia and India, andChinaondigital health 29 Consumer goods and services: Asian companies can build scale and brands while leveraging digital platforms 34 Energy and materials: Asian companies can lead the global energy transition toward new and sust

6、ainable sources 39 Real estate: Asian firms can benefit from urbanization trends by developing new competencies and enhancing productivity through technology 43 Banking: The environment has become more challenging for Asian banks, creating pressure to scale up and continue digital innovation 49 3. P

7、ositioning for the post-pandemic world 53 Exploring opportunities ahead 54 Manage multiple time horizons through “plan-ahead” teams 55 Technical appendix 57 Acknowledgments 59 iThe future of Asia: Decoding the value and performance of corporate Asia In brief Decoding the value and performance of cor

8、porate Asia COVID-19 is an unprecedented global challenge in the post-World War II period. This pandemic has proven to be not only a public health crisis, but also a major disruption to supply chains that may permanently change long-standing business practices to create a “next normal.” But Asia has

9、 come through crisis periods before and emerged stronger for itand there is reason to believe it can do so again. The dynamism, speed, and agility of Asian companies have given the region resilience, enabling it to achieve macroeconomic stability in a volatile world. Asian corporations have grown ra

10、pidly and risen to global prominence over the past decade (between 200507 and 201517). However, bigger has not always meant better, at least in terms of economic profit, a measure of value creation and companies ability to beat the market. As a group, Asian companies lag behind their counterparts in

11、 the rest of the world despite the regions enormous market opportunities. Why should that be? By taking a deeper look at sectors and individual companies, we attempted to answer this question, and we identified many opportunities for growth and productivity along the way. Over the past decade, $1 of

12、 every $2 in new investment made worldwide went to Asian firms. This influx of capital has enabled them to scale up, achieving size and reach in line with the market opportunities at stake. Today, 43 percent of the worlds largest companies by revenue are headquartered in Asia. However, for most of t

13、he regions companies, capital inflow and revenue growth have not translated into higher economic profit (that is, profit after subtracting the cost of capital). Ten years ago, it took 80 cents of invested capital to earn $1 of revenue, but today it takes almost $1.10 to earn the same $1. The world h

14、as been awash in capital, driving down returns. As a result, economic profits worldwide deteriorated from $726 billion in the three-year period spanning 200507 to a loss of $34 billion in 201517. Asia accounted for nearly half of that fall, as $152 billion in economic profits swung to a loss of $206

15、 billion just a decade later. Three major factors explain Asias declining economic profitability over the decade we studied. A cyclical downturn in energy and materials, which has affected this sector worldwide, is the biggest factor, accounting for 44 percent of the decline. Another one- third of t

16、he drop can be attributed to the allocation of capital to value-destroying sectors, a phenomenon that occurs throughout the region but is particularly pronounced in China. The remainder of the decline is due to the underperformance of Asian firms relative to their global peers. iiMcKinsey Global Ins

17、titute Our simulation suggests that Asia could potentially unlock $440 billion to $620 billion of economic profit from two major opportunities. The first is improving the performance of firmsspecifically, lifting about 200 of the regions companies out of the bottom quintile of performers into the mi

18、ddle and boosting an additional 250 companies from the middle of the curve into the top quintile. The second is investing $3 trillion to $4 trillion over time in value-creating sectors; some of this may involve reallocating existing capital away from other sectors. Looking specifically at the perfor

19、mance of firms, Asia is overrepresented in the bottom quintile and underrepresented in the top quintile of firms as compared with the global average. This is partly due to endowment and the reality that Asian firms have been overrepresented in lower R they may need to embrace consolidation to add sc

20、ale and deepen their use of digital technologies. There are many opportunities for Asian corporations to build capabilities to sustain long- term growth in what will be a more volatile context in the wake of the COVID-19 shock. Corporations can accelerate digital adoption and thereby unlock producti

21、vity; build scale by exploring M and be bold and agile in the management of portfolios. In addition, business leaders need to manage for multiple time horizons, putting in place plan-ahead teams. Over the past two decades, the growth of large Asian corporations has radically altered the worlds corpo

22、rate landscape. Now these companies are entering a new phase in which their challenge will be not simply growth but also productivity. An external shock of the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic may only accelerate the widening of the gap between underperforming and outperforming companies. Looking

23、ahead to a post-pandemic world, resilient Asian firms may be able to define the “next normal.” iiiThe future of Asia: Decoding the value and performance of corporate Asia ivMcKinsey Global Institute We live in a turbulent world, with geopolitical tensions and an unprecedented global pandemic dominat

24、ing headlines and the minds of decision makers. While the focus today is rightly on the immediate crisis response, these events highlight the importance of resilience for both governments and the corporate world. The spread of COVID-19 has been a crisis not only for healthcare, but for entire econom

25、ies. Efforts to combat the virus through physical distancing have hit many sectors, including travel and hospitality; put pressure on many consumer-facing businesses; and disrupted the many global supply chains that run through the region. But Asia has coped with adversity before and emerged stronge

26、r for it. Lessons learned during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, for example, changed public policy and private-sector choices; as a result, Asia came through the 2008 global financial meltdown relatively unscathed. The performance of large corporations matters to the fortunes of workers, consum

27、ers, investors, savers, and even the stability of national economies. Asias corporate giants have experienced a tremendous growth phase, but their next chapter will be about creating value and sustaining performance over the longer term. Volatility will always pose challenges, but Asian firms have p

28、roven to be nimble and dynamic in the way they respond. With the pandemic, Asias corporations will need to continue to expand internationally and push ahead with innovation, and the regions horizontally integrated conglomerates will have to demonstrate the benefits of diversification in an increasin

29、gly volatile context. In a post-pandemic world, Asian companies can play a major role in defining the “next normal.”1 In this next phase, they will have to broaden their focus beyond growth and staking out market positions to emphasize productivity and performance. In Chapter 1 of this paper, we loo

30、k back over the past decade to assess Asias capital paradox, which has fueled the rising scale of corporate Asia but produced declining economic profit. We examine the factors causing this phenomenon, then lay out the size of the opportunity that could be realized through improved firm performance a

31、nd more efficient capital allocation. In Chapter 2, we look at five specific sectors to identify the opportunities for Asian companies. In Chapter 3, we suggest how companies can position themselves for the post-pandemic world. 1 Kevin Sneader and Shubham Singhal, Beyond coronavirus: The path to the

32、 next normal, March 2020, McK. 1. Understanding Asias corporate performance 1The future of Asia: Decoding the value and performance of corporate Asia Asia is now home to 43 percent of the worlds largest companies A huge wave of capital has flooded into Asias corporations in recent years, with aggreg

33、ate investment tripling over the past decade. More than $1 of every $2 in new investment worldwide over this period went into firms that call Asia home. In fact, $1 of every $3 in global investment went to China. This funding has evidently helped many Asian companies scale up rapidly. We use the sha

34、re of companies in the G5000our term for the 5,000 largest firms in the world by revenueas a proxy for broader trends in Asias corporate landscape (see Box 1, “Our approach to assessing corporate performance”). In the past decade alone, Asian companies have increased their share of the G5000 by six

35、percentage points. Asia now accounts for 43 percent of the list, a larger share than any other region in the world. In comparison, Europe has 25 percent of the G5000, and North America (Canada and the United States) has 24 percent (Exhibit 1). The increased prominence of Asian companies is to be exp

36、ected as more of the worlds economic activity shifts toward the region. Yet the speed of their rise is still striking, particularly since the entry bar to the G5000 is now set much higher. To enter this exclusive club in 201517, a company needed revenue of $1.3 billiondouble the required level only

37、ten years ago. Furthermore, Asia is the only region with rising representation over this period. North Americas share of the G5000, for instance, fell by four percentage points, and Europes fell by two percentage points. Exhibit 1 Asia accounts for 43 percent of the worlds largest firms. Source: McK

38、insey Corporate Performance Analytics; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 1. Largest by revenue. Note: Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Worlds 5,000 largest firms (G5000) by region1 % Revenue %; $ trillion 37 43 28 24 2725 7 8 North America Rest of world 201517200507 Europe Asia 100%

39、 30 39 33 28 34 29 48 4 200507 5 201517 30100% = 2McKinsey Global Institute Representation in the G5000 is also shifting within Asia itself. The number of Japanese firms making the cut today has dropped by 300 from ten years ago. Singapore and South Korea largely maintained their representation at 4

40、0 and 160 companies, respectively. However, Chinese companies have more than doubled their share of the G5000 in the past decade to more than 900 firms. The number of Indian firms represented has also nearly doubled from a lower base of 85 to 142, the seventh-highest share. Companies from emerging A

41、sian economies (including Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) now have a presence on the listand for the first time, Bangladesh has a company in the G5000. Joining the G5000 matters because it reflects economic momentum. As firms grow and become more corporatized, they can more easily

42、access financing, accumulate capital, and connect with the global economy. Larger corporations often tap into global demand and drive exports. They typically have higher productivity and productivity growth as well as lower marginal costs to expand than smaller businesses. Large firms generate a lar

43、ger share of GDP in Advanced Asia, China, Europe, and the United States than those in other parts of Asia (Exhibit 2). High-performing emerging markets tend to have about twice as many large firms as other emerging markets, but those firms are still only about half as large on average (byrevenue) as

44、 those in high-income economies.2 Asias large firms play different roles in their national economies. China and the economies of Advanced Asia have higher corporatization rates (that is, a higher share of GDP generated by large firms), while Emerging Asia, and Frontier Asia and India have lower corp

45、oratization rates, which largely reflect their levels of economic development. However, as we have seen with the patterns of G5000 representation to date, firms from Emerging Asia, Frontier Asia and India will likely continue to rise as the “Asian century” progresses.3 2 Outperformers: High-growth e

46、merging economies and the companies that propel them, McKinsey Global Institute, September 2018. 3 Asia is a highly diverse region; there is no single Asia but many. We identified four distinct groups of economies based on scale, economic development, interactions with one another, and connectedness

47、 to the world. Advanced Asia (which consists of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea), provides significant capital and technology to its neighbors. China (which comprises mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) is large and distinct enough to stand on its own. It anchors

48、the region, providing connectivity and innovation. Emerging Asia (which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) is a culturally diverse group that provides labor and the potential for long-term market growth. Finally, Frontier Asia and India (a group that includes Bangl

49、adesh, India, and Pakistan) accesses a broad base of trade partners and investors, and provides growth opportunities. The complementary nature of these groups can make Asia more prosperous and resilient. See The future of Asia: Asian flows and networks are defining the next phase of globalization, McKinsey Global Institute, September 2019. 3The future of Asia: Decoding the value and performance of corporate Asia Exhibit 2 60 35 80 302520010 110 5154045 130 70 50 90 10 55706065 100 120 0 20 40 30 50 Pakistan Japan France Economic development, 2017