2024年人工智能趨勢.pdf

1、 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.This presentation,including all supporting materials,is proprietary to Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates and is for the sole internal use of the intended recipients.Because

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3、.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any form without Gartners prior written permission.It consists of the opinions of Gartners research organization,which should not be construed as statements of fact.While the

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6、t or influence from any third party.For further information,see Guiding Principles on Independence and Objectivity.Arnold Gao2024年年AI趨勢及展望趨勢及展望2 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.2023 生成式生成式AI探索之年探索之年3 2024

7、Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.2023 生成式生成式AI探索之年探索之年2024 生成式生成式AI落地之年落地之年從實驗，到實踐，到工程化的不斷迭代4 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its a

8、ffiliates.2023 探索之年探索之年2024 執行和結果執行和結果5 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.2023 探索之年探索之年 大語言模型之年大語言模型之年2024 執行和結果執行和結果 多模態模型之年多模態模型之年6 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a r

9、egistered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.2023 探索之年探索之年 大語言模型之年大語言模型之年 顛覆顛覆/高光時刻高光時刻2024 執行和結果執行和結果 多模態模型之年多模態模型之年 失敗、泡沫破裂失敗、泡沫破裂7 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.2023 探索之年探索之年 大語言模型之年大語言模型之年 顛

10、覆顛覆/高光時刻高光時刻2024 執行和結果執行和結果 多模態模型之年多模態模型之年 失敗、泡沫破裂失敗、泡沫破裂8 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.8 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and

11、its affiliates.生成式生成式AI正處于期望正處于期望泡沫的頂峰。泡沫的頂峰。俯視失望之谷俯視失望之谷。9 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.9 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and

12、 its affiliates.生成式生成式AI正處于期望正處于期望泡沫的頂峰。泡沫的頂峰。俯視失望之谷俯視失望之谷。GenAI(生成式人工智能)的熱潮席卷整個2023年。Gartner最近的調研顯示，生成式AI將于2024年中進入期望泡沫破滅的低。技術將會繼續進步。多模態模型、小型化模型、AI智能代理、機器人等趨勢將陸續進入它們各自的期望泡沫頂峰以及低谷期。10 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its

13、affiliates.2024年趨勢及展望年趨勢及展望從興奮到冷靜，從技術探索到商業價值實現從興奮到冷靜，從技術探索到商業價值實現垂直領域的生成式AI模型開源大語言模型AI基礎設施AI智能體的興起從大語言模型到多模態模型從大語言模型到多模態模型AI監管和法律Source:Gartner11 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.趨勢一：垂直領域生成式趨勢一：垂直領域生成式AI模型模

14、型12 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.生成式生成式AI的基礎模型的基礎模型就像是瑞士軍刀就像是瑞士軍刀:哪里都能用，但不是哪里都能用，但不是哪里都用得好。哪里都用得好。12 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartn

15、er,Inc.and its affiliates.13 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.基礎（大）模型的優點和缺點基礎（大）模型的優點和缺點優勢優勢通用通用大型知識系統大型知識系統成本效益成本效益劣勢劣勢缺乏專精能力資源密集不準確性和幻覺14 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner

16、 is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.到2027年,企業中超過50%的生成式AI模型將會成為垂直領域模型(行業或者業務功能相關),而2023年這個數字只有1%。15 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.什么是垂直領域生成式什么是垂直領域生成式AI模型模型?為特定行業、業務功能或為特定行業、業務功能

17、或任務的需求任務的需求進行優化進行優化旨在提高性能，旨在提高性能，并減少在并減少在特定場景中對于復雜提示詞特定場景中對于復雜提示詞工程的需求工程的需求從頭開始構建，從頭開始構建，或是對已有或是對已有通用模型中通用模型中進行微調進行微調得到得到垂直領域生成式AI模型的算法:16 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.垂直領域生成式垂直領域生成式AI模型的例子模型的例子Google M

18、ed-PaLM 2BioBERTCheXNetMedicalGPT醫療醫療Narrativa(Narralegal)LegalBERT法律法律Google Sec-PaLM安全安全NewsGPT新聞新聞BloombergGPT金融金融FinBERT地理空間地理空間HLS Geospatial FM17 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.生成式生成式AI成熟度曲線成熟度曲線Sou

19、rce:Hype Cycle for Generative AI,2023,11 September 202318 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.垂直領域模型的優點和缺點垂直領域模型的優點和缺點優勢優勢針對任務和用戶針對任務和用戶進行優化進行優化準確性準確性資源效率資源效率劣勢劣勢有限的通用性有限的通用性數據依賴數據依賴維護挑戰維護挑戰19 2024 Gartner,Inc

20、.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.基礎模型基礎模型垂直領域模型垂直領域模型vs.廣泛適用性廣泛適用性 可應用于各個行業和場景 可擴展性可擴展性 可以被部署在具有不同需求的不同業務部門跨領域專業知識跨領域專業知識 使用多個垂直領域和領域的數據進行開發和訓練需要定制需要定制 需要應用提示詞工程和微調才能獲得最佳結果幻覺問題幻覺問題 由于訓練數據的廣度，準確度較低，出現幻覺的風險較高行業聚焦行業聚焦 旨在滿足特定領

21、域的需求和挑戰。深厚的領域知識深厚的領域知識 利用專業知識來滿足特定的要求和場景。更好的性價比更好的性價比 由于模型較小，需要的資源較少，因此運行成本較低。更快地額部署更快地額部署 不需要提示詞工程和微調，因為已經被優化過了。準確性準確性 由于訓練數據更加相關且更有針對性，因此準確性更高，幻覺減少。垂直領域生成式垂直領域生成式AI模型的比較優勢模型的比較優勢垂直領域生成式AI模型將能用能用變為好用好用,將加速生成式AI的部署。20 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered

22、 trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.趨勢二：開源大語言模型趨勢二：開源大語言模型21 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.大語言模型進化樹大語言模型進化樹Source:https:/ 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a

23、registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.xAI開源開源3140億參數的混合專家（億參數的混合專家（MoE）模型）模型Grok-1Source:https:/x.ai/blog/grok-os23 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.Meta開源開源Llama 3 8B與與Llama 3 70B模型模型Sourc

24、e:https:/x.ai/blog/grok-os24 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.通義千問開源通義千問開源Qwen1.5-110BSource:https:/huggingface.co/spaces/HuggingFaceH4/open_llm_leaderboard25 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All righ

25、ts reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.LMSYS Chatbot Arena排行榜排行榜Source:https:/chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard26 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.開源和專有大語言模型的準確性差距 舉例27 20

26、24 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.優點優點缺點缺點定制性更長的價值實現時間對安全和隱私的掌控復雜的模型模型生命周期管理協作和社區改進多樣化的許可透明度人才和技能降低供應商鎖定準確度差距開源大語言模型的優缺點開源大語言模型的優缺點28 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a reg

27、istered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.準確度基準排名準確度基準排名 ARC BLEU HELM MMLU TruthfulQA運行時運行時定量指標定量指標 算力和內存 上下文長度 模型尺寸 精確度 響應時間定性指標定性指標 幻覺 指令微調 本地化語言 隱私 有害內容一些性能指標一些性能指標29 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its aff

28、iliates.開源模型的未來開源模型的未來Source:X,formerly known as Twitter30 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.趨勢三：趨勢三：AI基礎設施基礎設施31 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark

29、of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.到到2028年，年，50%的企業平臺將利用專用基的企業平臺將利用專用基礎設施來支持礎設施來支持AI的應用，而的應用，而2023年這一比年這一比例還不到例還不到10%。32 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.AI將改變您運營基礎設施的方式將改變您運營基礎設施的方式事件相關性事件相關性/根本原因分析根本原因分析優化

30、基礎設施利用率優化基礎設施利用率ITIT服務管理服務管理改進的預測分析改進的預測分析績效規劃和預測績效規劃和預測供應商供應商基于基于AI/ML的分析的分析33 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.GPT-3:人類大腦:AI對能耗要求極高對能耗要求極高12瓦瓦10,000個個GPU處理器處理器15天天 1.3兆瓦兆瓦34 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its af

31、filiates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.數據中心中的數據中心中的AINVIDIA DGX H100 System 8U.8x NVIDIA H100 GPUs.2x Intel 8480 Platinum.2TB RAM.6x 3.3kW power supplies.4+2 redundancy.10kW in 8U.并且不要忘記您還需要并且不要忘記您還需要PB級的存儲空間級的存儲空間35 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or i

32、ts affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.AI對網絡的影響對網絡的影響加載數據同步更新模型計算生成式生成式AI模型處理模型處理36 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.小結小結：數據中心的架構設計，包括電源和冷卻系統、網

33、絡、服務器和存儲將受到AI的影響。37 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.數據中心之外的數據中心之外的AI基礎設施基礎設施 大模型進入“小時代”基于云的AI依然是主流，但會被邊緣AI部分替代 GPU依然重要，但不是唯一的選擇 消費 商業 工業化 環境AI成為現實 合成數據 供應鏈和產業轉型 產品服務化+=+38 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affil

34、iates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.趨勢四：趨勢四：AI法規與監管法規與監管39 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.政府和非政府和非NGO的的AI安全計劃安全計劃Governmental initiativesAI safety

35、AI Governance AllianceResponsible AIGuiding PrinciplesBehavioral-use licensingConsortia and NGO initiativesEU AI ActChina draft rules on GenAIU.K.AI White PaperU.S.AI Training ActU.S.Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights40 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a register

36、ed trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.全球全球AI法規：三大主要經濟體法規：三大主要經濟體United StatesEuropean UnionPeoples Republicof China41 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.全球全球AI法規：三大主要經濟體法規：三大主要經濟體United StatesEuropea

37、n UnionPeoples Republicof China42 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.中國的方法中國的方法A niche approach addressing AI risk within specific topics over time,such as algorithms,deep synthesis and GenAI regulation.Prohi

38、bited uses have emerged and comprehensive regulation is expected in the coming years.43 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.中國中國:小步迭代小步迭代互聯網信息服務算法推互聯網信息服務算法推薦管理規定薦管理規定互聯網信息服務深度合互聯網信息服務深度合成管理規定成管理規定生成式人工智能服務管生成

39、式人工智能服務管理暫行辦法理暫行辦法預計未來幾年將進行預計未來幾年將進行全面監管全面監管44 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.互聯網信息服務算法推薦管理規定互聯網信息服務算法推薦管理規定Technical and Policy Requirements for Operators Reviewing algorithm mechanisms,technological eth

40、ics,and information release Managing user registration Protecting data security and personal information Strengthening content management by building a characteristics database for identifying illegal and undesirable information and improving storage standards,rules,and procedures for database entri

41、esEthical Requirements for Providers Promotion of positive content Protection of minors and elderlyProhibited Behavior for Providers Promoting illegal activities Faking or manipulating content or data Engaging in discriminatory practices45 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.G

42、artner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.互聯網信息服務深度合成管理規定互聯網信息服務深度合成管理規定The Deep Synthesis Provisions stipulate the main responsibilities of“deep synthesis service providers.”Data securityand personal information protectionTransparencyContent managementand labelingTechnicals

43、ecurity46 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.生成式人工智能服務管理暫行辦法生成式人工智能服務管理暫行辦法Requirements applicable to services accessible to the public within ChinaMust undergo security assessment andalgorithm filingGenAI se

44、rvice providersare accountable ascontent producerGenAI service providers must establish a mechanismfor user protection 47 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.Information TechnologyLegalComplianceSecurityPrivac

45、yData AnalyticsLegalLOB&OperationsAI Team EthicsRisk Mgmt.AI信任、風險和安全管理信任、風險和安全管理 涉及到多個部門涉及到多個部門48 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.趨勢五：趨勢五：AI智能體智能體49 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserv

46、ed.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.生成式生成式AI的未來的未來GenAI應用的快速增長Transformers架構,大模型,基礎模型各國法律法規出臺每個員工的個人智能助理201720232024202550 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.人工智能過去只是為特定任務而設

47、計的人工智能過去只是為特定任務而設計的Source:Internet51 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.大語言模型改變了一切，大語言模型改變了一切，AI開始具備“泛化”的能力開始具備“泛化”的能力Source:https:/ 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a reg

48、istered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.OpenAI聯合創始人布羅克曼現場演示了聯合創始人布羅克曼現場演示了ChatGPTAI-powered planning and shoppingOpenAI聯合創始人Greg Brockman在TED演講中演示了ChatGPT如何幫助他規劃晚宴菜單，將菜單發送到文本轉圖像生成器Dall-E以創建邀請，然后創建購物清單并發送 將該清單發送到Instacart進行履行。該演示展示了如何將多個系統與生成式人工智能連接在一起，以承擔人類客戶的工作。Source:The Inside Story o

49、f ChatGPTs Astonishing Potential,.Source:The inside story of ChatGPTs astonishing potential,TED2023,April 202353 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.AI智能體不僅能與我們對話，還能為我們完成任務智能體不僅能與我們對話，還能為我們完成任務計劃反饋工具1行動1行動2行動3

50、行動4工具2工具3目標任務大語言模型54 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.Adept基于基于Chrome插件的插件的AI代理代理Source:https:/www.adept.ai/55 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of

51、 Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.Devin全球首個全球首個AI軟件工程師軟件工程師Source:https:/www.cognition.ai/introducing-devin56 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.Figure 01具有理解周邊環境和推理能力的機器人具有理解周邊環境和推理能力的機器人Source:https:/www.figu

52、re.ai/57 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.AI智能體的演進智能體的演進Source:Internet58 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.AI智能體

53、的演進智能體的演進Source:https:/ 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.到2028年，與生成式AI服務的交互將有三分之一將調用自主代理來完成任務，而2023年這一比例還不到1%。AI智能體解決方案將智能體解決方案將主導數字化轉型的投資主導數字化轉型的投資“60 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights rese

54、rved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.舊時王謝堂前燕，飛入尋常百姓家舊時王謝堂前燕，飛入尋常百姓家Adaptive supply chain managementCode generationfor ITCall summarization&knowledge augmentation Personalized shopping recommendationsAccelerated R&D in life sciencesContextual insights for better cu

55、stomer serviceDescribe and analyze damage for claims processingWildlife protection by satellite imagery analysis61 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.AI價值：從日常價值：從日常AI到改變游戲規則的到改變游戲規則的AIDefendImprove existing p

56、rocesses&tasks“Use OpenAI(ChatGPT)to boost productivity of knowledge workers”ExtendRedesign and transform the organization“Use AI for decision augmentation in adaptive logistics”Upend New products,services,business models,markets“Use generative AI for preventive healthcare and personalized medical treatment”“Everyday AI”“Game-changing AI”62 2024 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.未來已來！未來已來！Source:https:/www.figure.ai/