盤古智庫：洞察2050：老齡社會大勢、轉型與對策—老齡社會研究報告（英文版）(10頁).pdf

1、 Trends, Transformation, and Solutions for an Aging Society 2 InsIghts Into 2050: About Aging Society 30 Forum In April 2018, the Aging Society 30 Forum was jointly founded by the Pangoal Institution, the Information Society 50 Forum, the China Institute for Philanthropy, and Social Innovation of Re

2、nmin University of China, the Center for Sociological Research and Development Studies of China of Peking University, and the SSIDC Senior Service Informatics Innovation Research Center. It aims to bring together insightful experts and scholars from around the world and serve as an influential platf

3、orm for research, exchanges, and practice in the field of aging societies. With a commitment to promoting human development and social transformation, the Forum focuses on dimensions such as trends, features, cultural changes, and public policies, and organizes insightful experts and scholars workin

4、g on fields like aging, IT-enabled development, and urbanization to study various data and cases, so as to profoundly explore and exchange their views on the all-round impacts of aging on social structure, forms of society and evolution, and eventually present influential research results. About Agi

5、ng Social Research Center of Pangoal Institution Founded in April 2018, the Aging Social Research Center of Pangoal Institution is the Institutions division specializing in the research of aging society. It is committed to systematic studies of phenomena, data, trends, and mechanisms in aging, aging

6、 society, and relevant fields as well as their impacts on peoples lives, economy, society, politics, and culture. With a particular focus on social innovation, public policies, and aging-related industries in an aging society, the Center works to promote the prospects, systems, and transformation of

7、 an aging society on various levels. The secretariat of the Aging Society 30 Forum is located in the Center. About the Establishments Trends, Transformation, and Solutions for an Aging Society 02 InsIghts Into 2050: People, technologies, and institutions are three core elements that affect the mediu

8、m-and-long- term development of a society. Chinas population has begun aging since 1999, and the trend has now become overwhelming: “sudden changes among people,” driven by multiple trends such as aging, celibacy, and man-machine integration, have become the key factors affecting and deciding medium

9、-and-long-term development of China. Looking at the present and future, there are five major trends in aging society of China: the fierce trend of super aging, the emergence of new life forms, the diversification of community forms, the synchronous resonance of aging, informatization and urbanizatio

10、n, and the coordinated response among government, industry and society. For the year 2050, we propose to build an aging society “with an intelligent and sharing four-layer ecosystem,” featuring all-age inclusiveness, diversity and sharing, and intelligence and innovation. From 2018 to 2050, China wi

11、ll go through three phases, accelerated aging, rapid aging, and hyper aging. Accordingly, Chinas transformation from a young society to an aging one will be roughly composed of three phases, consensus reaching, foundation construction, and social transformation. 8 CHALLENGES TOWARDS 2050 AGING SOCIE

12、TY AND SOLUTIONS: CHALLENGE 1: The existing infrastructure is particularly unsuited to the actual societal demands. SOLUTION 1: To launch the multi-trillion-yuan age-friendly infrastructure renovation projects. CHALLENGE 2: Labor is increasingly scarce and the economic growth is anemic. SOLUTION 2:

13、To mobilize the 300 million aging workforce members and to raise the total factor productivity. ABSTRACT CHALLENGE 3: The pension revenue cannot cover spending and will hardly sustain its recipients. SOLUTION 3: To implement a step-based pension system with all the relevant factors and multiple pill

14、ars. CHALLENGE 4: The trend of lower fertility is increasingly severe. SOLUTION 4: To promote reproductive freedom, parity, and welfare. CHALLENGE 5: Aging leads to the decline in the development of certain regions and rural areas. SOLUTION 5: To promote regional and urban- rural balance from a pers

15、pective of multi-polar city clusters. CHALLENGE 6: Social services are woefully inadequate. SOLUTION 6: To encourage mutually supportive social innovations such as time-based currencies. CHALLENGE 7: A new digital gap in the aging society SOLUTION 7: To advocate a design, assessment, and service sys

16、tem which features age-inclusive. CHALLENGE 8: The contradictions between life, rights and medical resources are increasingly notable. SOLUTION 8: To promote future-oriented life education, living wills and palliative care. Trends, Transformation, and Solutions for an Aging Society 04 InsIghts Into

17、2050: Introduction People, technologies, and INSTITUTIONS are three core elements that affect the medium-and-long- term development of a society. Over the past 40- odd years, innovation in systems and institution has been a fundamental driving force for economic and social development in China since

18、 the reform and opening-up initiatives, which were introduced in 1978. The commercial use of the internet in China in 1995 being another starting point, technological innovation, especially the innovation and application of internet-centered information technology, has become another fundamental dri

19、ving force. Chinas population has begun aging since 1999, and the trend has now become overwhelming: “sudden changes among people,” driven by multiple trends such as aging, celibacy, and man-machine integration, have become the key factors affecting and deciding Chinas medium- and long-term developm

20、ent. Such a change took place against the backdrop of aging populations across the globe. Due to the combined effects of increased average life expectancy and low fertility, the global aging population (aged over 65) accounts for 9.1% of all people in 2019, and this figure will be estimated to reach

21、 15.9% by 2050. Chinas population has also witnessed an accelerating pace of aging: in 2018, the elderly population in China has accounted for 11.9% of the total, the birth rate has hit a record low since the founding of the new China, and the population over the age of 60 has exceeded that of child

22、ren for the first time in the history. Meanwhile, the countrys working-age population has declined to less than 900 million, and the total number of the employed has dwindled for the first time. The statistics show that the age structure of the Chinese population has been undergoing a significant re

23、versal. Population aging has also been a sign of reflexivity in modern society. Longevity, lower fertility, and migration, being the three main causes of population aging, are in fact the significant achievements accomplished alongside technological advances, as well as economic and social developme

24、nt. However, a series of problems and challenges resulting from aging population have restricted the economic and social development for the time being. It is safe to say that population aging, a long-standing yet hardly irreversible trend, can be the largest “Gray Rhino” throughout human history. F

25、IGURE 1 Three core elements affect the medium-and-long-term development of society. PEOPLE TECHNOLOGIESINSTITUTIONS Fig. 1 Three core elements affect the medium-and-long-term development of society. Fig. 2 Economic and Social development have extended from systems and technologies to people in China

26、 Acceleration of population aging Commercial use of internet in China Reform and opening-up INSTITUTIONSTECHNOLOGIESPEOPLE 19781995 Population aging since 1999 2018 Trends, Transformation, and Solutions for an Aging Society 06 InsIghts Into 2050: Fig. 3 New structure: the third phase of life AGRARIA

27、N SOCIETY INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY INFORMATION SOCIETY NONAGE YOUTH AND MIDLIFE ELDER Retirement System Without ability to work nor ability to live Without ability to work but with ability to live With ability to work and live As the period from retirement through incapability to death lengthens, there em

28、erges a healthy aging period of over 10 years. Incapability Incapability Third Phase of Life FIGURE 3 New structure: the third phase of life following the first (nonage) and second (youth and midlife) phases. The third one would be a new form of life, which is a man-machine integration. Since variou

29、s intelligent software and hardware are designed to be extensions of human bodies and thinking, the integration of human and machines, especially intelligent machines, has led to rapid evolution of human life. “Man” in a purely natural and primitive sense is fading away, as a “post-human era” is app

30、roaching. (III) Diversified forms of social communities. The data of family-related issues in China has shown a trend of “two high rates and two low rates”: the divorce rate and empty-nest rate have been consistently increasing while the marriage rate and birth rate have repeatedly hit an all- time

31、low. The relationship between people has also undergone significant changes: from family- oriented aggregation to diversified forms of social communities, and from close connections based on big families in modern times to the “4-2-1” (four grandparents, two parents and one child) family structure.

32、Such diversified social communities have generated many new social relationships and connections. Members of same communities share similar needs, and diversified social communities continue to form new economic and social ecosystems, filling up gaps caused by family separation. (IV) Synchronization

33、 of aging with IT-enabled development and urbanization. Population aging has taken place in China since industrialization, information technology application, urbanization, and agricultural modernization. That is to say, China has entered an aging society almost simultaneously with its economic rise

34、 and cultural renaissance. The synchronization of aging with information technology application and urbanization is inevitable, and has become an important feature that distinguishes population aging in China from that in many other countries and regions. The increased scarcity of labor caused by ag

35、ing, though could be conducive to promoting the growth of total factor productivity and transformation to high-quality development, has exacerbated the unbalanced development between regions and between urban and rural areas. Thus, it has become a important reason for the decline in Data Source: Nat

36、ional Bureau of Statistics and China National Committee on Aging TWO HIGH RATES TWO LOW RATES HIGH DIVORCE RATE LOW MARRIAGE RATE The marriage rate in China in 2018 was 7.2, hitting a record low over the past 10 years. The divorce rate in China in 2018 was 3.2, marking an increase for 13 consecutive

37、 years. HIGH EMPTY-NEST RATE The empty-nest rate among the elderly in China has reached 50%, and this number in large- and medium-sized cities has reached 70%. LOW BIRTH RATE The birth rate in China in 2018 was 10.94, hitting an all- time low since the founding of the new China. Trends, Transformati

38、on, and Solutions for an Aging Society 08 InsIghts Into 2050: FIGURE 5 An aging society featuring all-age inclusiveness, diversity and sharing, intelligence and innovation Sharing (Culture) Intelligence (Technologies) Infrastructure Institutional Environment Platforms Innovative Government Services

39、LivingEconomy Services All-round Subjects Diversified Foundations Elderly-friendly Fig. 5 An aging society featuring all-age inclusiveness, diversity and sharing, intelligence and innovation Families Information Entertainment HealthProductionTrading Public Warfare Chat-group MembersCompanions Fellow

40、 townsmenContemporaries ALL-AGE INCLUSIVENESS DIVERSITY AND SHARING INTELLIGENCE AND INNOVATION AGING SOCIETY platforms, and information interfaces. Meanwhile, the institutional environment should also be age- friendly, which can be reflected in relevant policies, laws, and regulations for an aging

41、society, as well as in the economic and social operation and the guarantee mechanisms which are oriented towards the elderly and aimed at sustainable development. The second layer consists of three innovative supporting platforms for government services and economic and social sectors based on age-f

42、riendly infrastructure. With a focus on offering inclusive public services to meet demands of all age groups, an innovative government service platform provides comprehensive administrative and government services for the aging society. With the internet connecting cyber society and reality, the pla

43、tform optimizes and reorganizes the organizational structure and work flow of the government, and builds intensive, efficient, and transparent governance and operation modes. Based on the information technology of a new-generation, the innovative economic platform would focus on the interconnection

44、and application of mass data. With the help of the internet and Internet of Things, the platform connects traditional industries that underpin social operations in a multi-dimensional, efficient, and intelligent manner both online and offline, and reforms the operation and value output modes of such

45、 industries by means of industry cloud, digital currency, and flexible production. The innovative social platform, as a new ecological structure, would improve the division of labor and cooperation in various social organizations and promote the formation of social innovations through the internet.

46、With this platform, more social enterprises can solve their social, economic, and environmental problems. The third layer is composed of an innovative system providing all-around and sound services for diversified subjects and social communities. By offering personalized and professional services and support in production, trading, living, elderly care, health, public welfare, information, entertainment and other areas, the system aims to achieve multi-dimensional, in-depth integration both online and offline.