1、We are enteri ng a more beni gn part of the cycl e wi th a conti nuati on of economi c ngrowth al ongsi de l ower pol i cy rates a combi nati on that has hi stori cal l y been posi ti ve for equi ti es.Longer-term rates are unl i kel y to fal l gi ven a rebui l d of term premi a and hi gher ngovernm

2、ent defici ts.Thi s,together wi th hi gh US equi ty val uati ons,moderates the upsi de i n equi ti es at the i ndex l evel.Thi s means that al pha shoul d become a more i mportant dri ver of returns wi th a nbroadeni ng opportuni ty set wi thi n and across equi ty markets.There i s a growi ng symbi

3、oti c rel ati onshi p between the potenti al for the nTechnol ogy sector and growth i n some parts of the ol d economy as the needs for capex rol l out and el ectri ficati on i ncrease.The prospects for equi ty returns are no l onger a functi on of whether the sector ni s cl assi fied as Growth or V

4、al ue;i t can be a bi t of both.We l ook for opportuni ti es to i mprove ri sk-adj usted returns through more regi onal ndi versi ficati on.We expect broadeni ng market parti ci pati on wi th Mi d caps i n the US,ETCs(ex Tech compounders)and sel ecti ve Val ue compounders.Where are we headed?1.Fol l

5、 owi ng the past coupl e of years of hi gh i nflati on and i nterest rates,we are enteri ng a more beni gn stage of the economi c cycl e.The prospects for conti nued gl obal growth remai n posi ti ve and our economi sts have reduced thei r i mpl i ed US recessi on probabi l i ty to 15%over the next

6、12 months i n l i ne wi th the uncondi ti onal average.Thi s cycl e i s al so evol vi ng i n a more typi cal way rel ati ve to the post fiscal cri si s cycl e wi th i ts sub-trend growth and zero i nterest rates(Exhi bi t 1).I n compari son,whi l e economi c acti vi ty i n other regi ons remai ns we

7、aker,our economi sts forecast gl obal real GDP growth of 2.7%i n 2025(si mi l ar to the past coupl e of years).Peter Oppenheimer+44(20)7552-5782|peter.oppenhei Gol dman Sachs I nternati onal Sharon Bell+44(20)7552-1341|sharon.bel l Gol dman Sachs I nternati onal Lilia Peytavin+33(1)4212-1716|l i l i

8、 a.peytavi Gol dman Sachs Bank Europe SE-Pari s Branch Guillaume Jaisson+44(20)7552-3000|gui l l aume.j ai Gol dman Sachs I nternati onalGlobal Strategy Vi ews Di versi fy t o Ampl i fy14 October 2024|5:05AM BST I nvestors shoul d consi der thi s report as onl y a si ngl e factor i n maki ng thei r

9、i nvestment deci si on.For Reg AC certi ficati on and other i mportant di scl osures,see the Di scl osure Appendi x,or go to l e,most G10 central banks have commenced a j ourney of steady i nterest rate cuts,and Chi na has al so eased monetary pol i cy aggressi vel y.2.From an equi ty market perspec

10、ti ve,the i mpact of a rate-cutti ng cycl e has vari ed dependi ng,l argel y,on the economi c cycl e.A combi nati on of conti nued economi c growth wi th a rate-cutti ng cycl e tends to be posi ti ve for gl obal equi ti es(Exhi bi t 2).I t i s onl y when a recessi on fol l ows the i nterest rate cut

11、s that equi ti es usual l y underperform.Our vi ew i s that the gl obal economy and corporate profits wi l l conti nue to grow through 2025 whi l e i nterest rates wi l l be trendi ng l ower;thi s combi nati on suggests the broad backdrop for equi ti es shoul d be posi ti ve.Exhi bi t 1:Thi s cycle

12、i s evolvi ng i n a more typi cal way relati ve to the post fiscal cri si s cycle US Real GDP indexed to 100 at start of recession,defined by NBER 909510010511011512012513013514001234567891020072019Average GDP recovery since 1950Years Source:Haver Anal yt i cs,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Rese

13、arch14 October 2024 2Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy Views 3.Neverthel ess,whi l e the cycl i cal condi ti ons for equi ti es are supporti ve,there are structural factors that are l i kel y to constrai n the aggregate progressi on of i ndex returns.Thi s means that al pha shoul d become a more i mporta

14、nt dri ver of returns wi th a broadeni ng opportuni ty set wi thi n and across equi ty markets.One of the structural dynami cs at pl ay i s that government debt l evel s are hi gh and often ri si ng.As Exhi bi t 3 shows,the Debt-to-GDP rati o for the Devel oped Markets i s at the hi ghest l evel for

15、 many decades,whi l e Emergi ng Markets are al so seei ng ri si ng debt.Exhi bi t 2:A combi nati on of conti nued economi c growth wi th a rate-cutti ng cycle tends to be posi ti ve for global equi ti es Global equities around Fed cut with and without recession(20)%(10)%0%10%20%30%(6)(3)036912Months

16、 around first Fed cut7-episodeaverageAverage followed by recessionCurrentAverage not followed by recessionFirst cut Source:Dat ast ream,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Research14 October 2024 3Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy Views Thi s,together wi th ri si ng term premi a,suggests that whi l e shor

17、t-term i nterest rates wi l l fal l,l onger-term i nterest rates are unl i kel y to come down(Exhi bi t 4).4.Hi gher for l onger bond yi el ds can cap the upsi de potenti al for broad equi ty i ndi ces as the Equi ty Ri sk Premi um has fal l en back to the l ow l evel s seen i n the earl y part of t

18、hi s century(Exhi bi t 5).Exhi bi t 3:One of the structural dynami cs at play i s that government debt levels are hi gh and often ri si ng IMF general government debt(%of GDP)projections 02040608010012014002040608010012014019001910192019301940195019601970198019902000201020202030EMDMGeneral Governmen

19、t Debt(%of GDP)IMF Forecast Source:IMF,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Research Exhi bi t 4:Longer-term i nterest rates are unli kely to come down 10-Year Bond Yield,GS Forecast(%)-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0212223242526GermanyUKUS Source:Dat ast ream,Haver Anal yt i cs,Gol dman Sach

20、s Gl obal Invest ment Research14 October 2024 4Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy Views At the same ti me,equi ty i ndex val uati ons,at l east i n the US market,are at the top of thei r l onger-term range.Exhi bi t 6 shows a si mpl e compari son of P/E rati os based on consensus 12m forward earni ngs est

21、i mates.Certai nl y,part of the US premi um can be expl ai ned by the hi gher val uati ons of the domi nant Tech compani es,but the exhi bi t shows that the market i s sti l l on a hi gh val uati on even excl udi ng these compani es.Whi l e our US strategi sts argue that these val uati ons are i n l

22、 i ne wi th thei r macro model of fai r val ue,most of the return for the US market i s l i kel y to come from earni ngs over the next coupl e of years.Stronger growth has prompted our US team to upgrade thei r forecasts for the S&P 500 EPS to$268(+11%year/year)from$256(+6%)and i ntroduce a 2026 EPS

23、 esti mate of$288(+7%).Thei r 12-month target,now at 6300(from 6000),i mpl i es 10%upsi de over the next year.Exhi bi t 5:Equi ty Ri sk Premi um has fallen back to the low levels seen i n the early part of thi s century Global market implied ERP(%)02468101201030507091113151719212325USEuropeJapanAsia

24、 Pacific ex JapanWorld*4.3%4.2%4.2%3.0%6.7%*Implied ERPs are calculated by each regional strategy team.While specific assumptions differ between regions,all are calculated using similar frameworks.Source:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Research14 October 2024 5Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy Views 5

25、.Other equi ty markets are tradi ng i n l i ne wi th thei r hi stori cal averages,but l ook much cheaper rel ati ve to thei r bond markets and the US.Thi s rel ati ve di scount has been true for most of the past decade and,whi l e the US has consi stentl y outperformed,thi s has been expl ai ned by

26、i ts superi or profit growth(Exhi bi t 7).Exhi bi t 6:At the same ti me,equi ty i ndex valuati ons i n the US market are at the top of thei r longer-term range on other valuati on metri cs 12m fwd P/E multiple.MSCI Regions.Data for the last 20 years 22.019.618.014.513.913.412.311.710.681012141618202

27、224USUS ex.BigTechAC WorldJapanAPxJEuropeEMUnitedKingdomChinaInterquartile RangeMedianCurrent10th-90th percentile Source:Fact Set,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Research Exhi bi t 7:Whi le the US has consi stently outperformed,thi s has been broadly explai ned by relati ve profit growth Price re

28、turn and 12m fwd EPS in local currency.Indexed to 100 in Jan-14 405060708090100110120130140150101112131415161718192021222324Price Return:World ex.US vs.USEPS:World ex.US vs.US Source:Dat ast ream,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Research14 October 2024 6Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy ViewsNeverthel

29、ess,l ooki ng forward,the gaps i n growth rates of EPS across the maj or regi ons i s narrowi ng.Thi s i s not a good reason to underwei ght the US,but rather to sel ecti vel y l ook at underval ued opportuni ti es i n other markets to i ncrease di versi ficati on and enhance ri sk-adj usted returns

30、.Onl y Europe conti nues to l ag i n terms of profit growth prospects(Exhi bi t 8),reflecti ng both a weaker economi c backdrop and sector composi ti on.Thi s i s not a good reason to underwei ght the US;a compari son of the P/E to expected earni ngs growth(Exhi bi t 9)suggests that the US equi ty m

31、arket conti nues to j usti fy i ts premi um val uati on.Exhi bi t 8:Only Europe conti nues to lag i n terms of profit growth prospects GS top-down vs.consensus bottom-up estimates of 2025 EPS growth 11%4%6%14%14%10%9%13%0481216S&P 500STOXX 600TOPIX(FY basis)MXAPJGS top down est.Consensus bottom up e

32、st.Source:I/B/E/S,Toyo Kei zai,STOXX,MSCI,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Research14 October 2024 7Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy Views Gl obal fund flows have strongl y favoured the US,however,at the expense of other markets(for good reason),and there remai n some rel ati ve di scounts i n the oth

33、er markets,suggesti ng that there are at l east some sel ecti ve opportuni ti es to broaden exposure to enhance ri sk-adj usted returns.6.The Chi na pol i cy sti mul us has i mproved the prospects for Chi na equi ti es,notwi thstandi ng the powerful ral l y they have staged.Despi te si gni ficant st

34、ructural Exhi bi t 9:Bi g di scounts i n Europe mi ght suggest hi dden value i n some places PEG ratio(12m fwd P/E divided by second 12m EPS growth)-80%0.00.51.01.52.02.500020406081012141618202224USEuropeAsia Pacific ex.JapanMSCI Germany Source:Dat ast ream,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Researc

35、h Exhi bi t 10:Portfoli o i nvestments held i n US assets(equi ty and debt securi ti es)are at a peak 14161820222426283032010203040506070809101112131415161718192021222324Cross-border investments in US Assets(debt+equity,as a%of the global portfolio)Incl udes equi t y and i nvest ment fund shares,and

36、 t ot al debt securi t i es(l ong-t erm pl us short-t erm debt securi t i es).Source:Int ernat i onal Monet ary Fund,Haver,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Research14 October 2024 8Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy Viewsi ssues(the property market,demographi cs,debt l evel s,l ow domesti c consumpti on

37、,geopol i ti cal tensi ons),val uati ons remai n rel ati vel y attracti ve(11.3x P/E)gi ven there i s some upsi de ri sk to earni ngs(see Asi a-Paci fic Portfol i o Strategy:Chi na changes the game,5 October 2024).Our Asi a strategi sts esti mate a further 15-20%potenti al upsi de i n Chi na from cu

38、rrent l evel s and have upgraded thei r MXAPJ 12m i ndex target to 690(previ ousl y 630),i mpl yi ng a 16%USD total 12m return.Si mi l arl y,the EM team upgraded thei r MSCI EM target to 1,300.I n Japan,we thi nk the recent correcti on offers a better entry poi nt.Our 12-month TOPI X target remai ns

39、 at 2,900,wi th 16%USD total return potenti al upsi de,dri ven by sol i d EPS growth and some val uati on expansi on,wi th parti cul ar opportuni ti es i n domesti c demand stocks,smal l/mi d caps,and qual i ty Growth stocks.I n Europe,whi l e earni ngs growth remai ns l ackl ustre,sel ecti ve oppor

40、tuni ti es for di versi ficati on exi st wi thi n a gl obal portfol i o.On a sector compari son,stocks i n Europe trade on much bi gger di scounts than they have typi cal l y done i n the past(Exhi bi t 11).Thi s i s not a good reason to be overwei ght the i ndex,but suggests hi dden val ue i n some

41、 areas(Exhi bi t 9),both i n gl obal l y posi ti oned growth compounders(Technol ogy and Heal thcare,for exampl e),as wel l as i n sel ected Val ue areas of the market,such as Banks,where sharehol der returns are ri si ng.Overal l,we conti nue to see benefits from i nternati onal di versi ficati on

42、and remai n Neutral across regi ons on a 12m hori zon for 3m,we are OW US and Asi an equi ti es,N Japan,and UW Europe.See GOAL:Global Opportunity Asset Locator:From rates to growth-pro-risk with hedges into year-end al so publ i shed today.7.The moti vati on for di versi ficati on i s al so bei ng d

43、ri ven by the i ncreased concentrati on at the sector l evel.The Technol ogy sector has di verged meani ngful l y from the Exhi bi t 11:On a sector compari son,stocks i n Europe trade on much bi gger di scounts than they have typi cally done i n the past Europe vs.US 12m fwd P/E Premium/(Discount).D

44、ata for last 20 years-58%-51%-46%-39%-39%-33%-29%-23%-19%-14%-10%1%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%CurrentMedian Source:Dat ast ream,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Research14 October 2024 9Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy Viewsperformance of other sectors si nce 2010,j usti fied by i ts prol ong

45、ed trend of superi or profit growth(Exhi bi t 12).More recentl y,however,the i ncreasi ng focus on AI has reveal ed the growi ng physi cal constrai nts to future growth that thi s i ndustry faces wi th i ts rel i ance on the rol l-out of data centres and on progress towards el ectri ficati on.Conseq

46、uentl y,for the first ti me for many years,there i s a symbi oti c rel ati onshi p between the potenti al for the Technol ogy sector and growth i n some parts of the ol d economy.The prospects for equi ty returns are no l onger a functi on of whether the sector i s cl assi fied as Growth or Val ue;i

47、 t can be a bi t of both.8.The other chal l enge for i nvestors i s that many equi ty markets have become i ncreasi ngl y concentrated at the stock l evel.Thi s i s most obvi ous i n the US,where the bi ggest 10 compani es account for around j ust under 20%of the val ue of the gl obal equi ty market

48、(Exhi bi t 13),and the top 5 compani es roughl y 15%.Exhi bi t 12:Just as the US equi ty market outperformance has reflected stronger fundamentals,so too has the Technology sector 12m Trailing EPS(USD).Indexed to 100 on Jan-2009 0501001502002503003504004508587899193959799010305070911131517192123Worl

49、d TechnologyWorld ex.TMT Source:Dat ast ream,Worl dscope,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Research14 October 2024 10Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy Views Once agai n,j ust as wi th the outperformance of the US equi ty market and the Technol ogy sector,thi s i ncreased concentrati on has reflected ext

50、raordi nary profit growth rather than specul ati ve exuberance(Exhi bi t 14).Encouragi ngl y,the val uati ons of l arge cap Technol ogy remai n much l ower than we have Exhi bi t 13:In the US the bi ggest 10 compani es account for around 18%of the value of the global equi ty market Weight of biggest

51、 US companies in global market cap 0%5%10%15%20%25%737679828588919497000306091215182124Weight of top 10 US companies in the WorldWeight of top 5 US companies in the World18%15%Source:Dat ast ream,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Research Exhi bi t 14:Thi s i ncreased concentrati on has reflected e

52、xtraordi nary profit growth rather than speculati ve exuberance Magnificent Seven and S&P 500,12m trailing EPS 0500100015002000250030003500050607080910111213141516171819202122232425Magnificent 7S&P 500 Source:Dat ast ream,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Research14 October 2024 11Goldman SachsGlob

53、al Strategy Viewsseen i n previ ous bubbl e peri ods(such as the l ate 1990s Technol ogy bubbl e,Japan i n the l ate 1980s or the Ni fty Fi fty bubbl e of the earl y 1970s).However,many of the domi nant Technol ogy compani es are shi fti ng away from thei r capi tal-l i ght,hi ghl y scal abl e busi

54、ness model s and are i ncreasi ngl y capi tal-heavy(see Gl obal Strategy Paper:AI,to buy or not to buy,that i s the questi on,5 September 2024).There i s ri si ng uncertai nty over whether these compani es can generate the future returns on these i nvestments that i s reflected i n thei r current va

55、l uati ons.Hi story suggests that the compani es that bui l d the underl yi ng i nfrastructure i n technol ogy revol uti ons are often not the mai n benefici ari es(thi nk of the Tel ecom compani es duri ng the l ate 1990s compared wi th the app-based busi nesses that emerged l ater and were abl e t

56、o benefit from the capex that had been bui l t and pai d for by others).The bal ance sheets and margi ns of the domi nant compani es,together wi th thei r competi ti ve moats,auger wel l for thei r abi l i ty to sustai n good compound returns.However,there i s a greater chance that other compani es,

57、whi ch can l everage the capex that the pi oneers have i nstal l ed,wi l l be abl e to grow at a faster rate i n the future.9.Wi th the prospect of posi ti ve but sl ower equi ty i ndex returns,we conti nue to focus on ways for i nvestors to enhance ri sk-adj usted returns through di versi ficati on

58、 and a focus on compoundi ng over ti me ei ther through qual i ty Growth compani es that rei nvest at a hi gh rate,or through Val ue compani es that are abl e to compound sharehol der returns through a combi nati on of buybacks and di vi dend growth.Such an ecl ecti c mi x woul d mark a departure fr

59、om the trends that have domi nated si nce the financi al cri si s.I n the post financi al cri si s decade,up unti l the start of the pandemi c,asset returns were hi ghl y bi furcated;financi al assets sharpl y outperformed real assets.Wages,real estate pri ces and i nflati on remai ned subdued;ever-

60、l ower i nterest rates boosted financi al asset val uati ons and returns.The best-performi ng markets were l ong durati on Growth assets Technol ogy,the Nasdaq,the growth factor,and hi gh yi el d credi t.The worst-performi ng were ei ther Val ue assets,or real assets such as gol d and commodi ti es(

61、Exhi bi t 15).14 October 2024 12Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy Views The pattern reversed i n 2022 as gl obal i nflati on and ri si ng rates upended the rel ati onshi ps.Real asset pri ces outpaced financi al assets(whi ch de-rated under the wei ght of hi gher yi el ds).The best-performi ng financi al

62、 assets were Val ue-exposed gol d,commodi ti es,and Japan whi l e the worst-performi ng were l onger durati on and Growth stocks(Exhi bi t 16).Exhi bi t 15:In the post financi al cri si s decade,up unti l the start of the pandemi c,financi al assets sharply outperformed real assets Total return perf

63、ormance in local currency,Jan 2009 Feb 2020 FI_ICRPDOVTotalReturn.IBXFI_QW5ATotalReturn.IBX-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%NasdaqS&P 500World GrowthEuropean HYMSCI WorldUS HYSTOXX EuropeWorld ValueMSCI EMTopixUS IGGerm.BondEuropean IGGoldUS BondJapan BondCommodityUS Nominal GDPEU Nominal GDPUS House

64、PriceUS wagesEuropean wagesUS CPIEA House PriceEuropean CPIReal Economy pricesAsset prices Source:Dat ast ream,Haver Anal yt i cs,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Research Exhi bi t 16:The pattern reversed i n 2022 as global i nflati on and ri si ng rates upended the relati onshi ps Total return p

65、erformance in local currency,Jan 2022 Oct 2023-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%CommodityTopixGoldJapan BondSTOXX EuropeS&P 500MSCI WorldUS HYEuropean IGNasdaqEuropean HYUS IGWorld ValueMSCI EMUS BondGerm.BondWorld GrowthUS House PriceUS Nominal GDPEU Nominal GDPUS wagesEuropean CPIEuropean wagesUS CPIE

66、A House PriceReal Economy pricesAsset prices Source:Dat ast ream,Haver Anal yt i cs,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Research14 October 2024 13Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy ViewsSi nce October 2023,when i nvestors turned more opti mi sti c of a Fed Pi vot,the wi nners have been a more ecl ecti c mi

67、 x(Exhi bi t 17).Gol d has performed strongl y al ongsi de the Nasdaq and EM equi ti es,whi l e the gap between Growth and Val ue has narrowed.Bonds have performed poorl y and real economy assets have l agged behi nd as i nflati on has started to moderate.Among the best-performi ng equi ti es we hav

68、e seen an unusual mi x of Technol ogy,Real Estate,Uti l i ti es and European Banks.10.We currentl y favour several strategi es to reflect thi s more ecl ecti c market envi ronment whi l e al so i ncreasi ng di versi ficati on to enhance forward ri sk-adj usted returns.Fi rst,the Technol ogy sector i

69、 n the US has seen huge i nflows year to date.Exhi bi t 17:Thi s year,the wi nners have been a more eclecti c mi x Total return in local currency since October 2023-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%GoldNasdaqS&P 500World GrowthMSCI WorldWorld ValueMSCI EMTopixSTOXX EuropeUS HYUS IGEuropean HYUS BondGerm.Bond

70、European IGJapan BondCommodityUS House PriceUS Nominal GDPEU Nominal GDPUS wagesUS CPIEuropean wagesEuropean CPIEA House PriceReal Economy pricesAsset prices Source:Dat ast ream,Haver Anal yt i cs,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Research14 October 2024 14Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy Views We thi

71、nk di versi ficati on to compl ement Technol ogy makes sense.We i denti fied a l i st of Ex Tech Compounders(ETCs).Thi s l i st i s wel l di versi fied across sector and regi ons.These compani es share si mi l ar characteri sti cs wi th the Bi g Tech,but wi thout the i di osyncrati c ri sks of heavy

72、 concentrati on or anti trust regul ati on.Thi s l i st of ETCs have performed i n l i ne wi th Gl obal Tech over the past three years,but have been l ess vol ati l e,hel pi ng to boost the Sharpe rati o and mi ti gate ri sks as vol ati l i ty pi cks up.Despi te a premi um,the val uati on of these c

73、ompani es i s i n l i ne wi th i ts average si nce 2016 and trades at the l owest premi um to the worl d stock market si nce 2018(Exhi bi t 19).Exhi bi t 18:The largest i nflows have been i nto US Tech funds wi th large outflows from Healthcare and Energy YTD flows into US equity sector funds.Cumula

74、tive monthly flows+MTD sum of weekly flows for Sep-24($bn)-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%-20-10010203040YTD flows($bn)YTD flows(%AUM,RHS)Source:EPFR,Haver,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Research14 October 2024 15Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy Views Second,i n the US,our strategy team conti nues to

75、focus on more market broadeni ng wi th mi d caps bei ng i n the sweet spot of hi gher growth but wi th l ower val uati ons and hi gher l everage than l arge caps,maki ng them a bi gger benefici ary of l ower i nterest rates.Thi rd,i n Europe,we conti nue to prefer a sel ecti ve barbel l approach bet

76、ween Growth stocks(such as Technol ogy or Heal thcare)and Val ue stocks(such as Banks and Tel ecoms).Fourth,i n Asi a,we l i ke stocks that shoul d benefit from the posi ti ve effects of Chi nas economi c easi ng and equi ty rebound:our APJ Chi na Sal es Exposure basket(GSSZAPCN)and Defence stocks.F

77、i nal l y,gi ven l i ngeri ng ri sks i nto the year-end and an unpredi ctabl e pol i ti cal envi ronment,we conti nue to favour hedgi ng strategi es,i ncl udi ng put spreads on S&P 500/European equi ti es,CDS payer spreads and USD HY TR puts(see GOAL Ri sk Keeper:Hedgi ng equi ti es i nto year-end:B

78、al anci ng drawdown ri sk and cost,5 September 2024).Exhi bi t 19:Our ETCs li st trades at the lowest premi um to the world stock market si nce 2019 12m fwd P/E premium 35%45%55%65%75%85%95%18192021222324Ex.Tech Compounders vs.MSCI AC World Source:Dat ast ream,Worl dscope,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Inve

79、st ment Research14 October 2024 16Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy ViewsDisclosure Appendix Reg AC We,Peter Oppenhei mer,Sharon Bel l,Li l i a Peytavi n and Gui l l aume Jai sson,hereby certi fy that al l of the vi ews expressed i n thi s report accuratel y reflect our personal vi ews,whi ch have not be

80、en i nfluenced by consi derati ons of the firms busi ness or cl i ent rel ati onshi ps.Unl ess otherwi se stated,the i ndi vi dual s l i sted on the cover page of thi s report are anal ysts i n Gol dman Sachs Gl obal I nvestment Research di vi si on.Di sclosures Marquee di sclosure Marquee i s a pro

81、duct of Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Banki ng&Markets.Any Marquee content l i nked i n thi s report i s not necessari l y representati ve of GS Research vi ews.I f you need access to Marquee,pl ease contact your GS sal esperson or emai l the Marquee team at gs-marquee-sal .MSCI Di sclosure Al l MSCI data

82、used i n thi s report i s the excl usi ve property of MSCI,I nc.(MSCI).Wi thout pri or wri tten permi ssi on of MSCI,thi s i nformati on and any other MSCI i ntel l ectual property may not be reproduced or redi ssemi nated i n any form and may not be used to create any financi al i nstruments or pro

83、ducts or any i ndi ces.Thi s i nformati on i s provi ded on an“as i s”basi s,and the user of thi s i nformati on assumes the enti re ri sk of any use made of thi s i nformati on.Nei ther MSCI,any of i ts affil i ates nor any thi rd party i nvol ved i n,or rel ated to,computi ng or compi l i ng the d

84、ata makes any express or i mpl i ed warranti es or representati ons wi th respect to thi s i nformati on(or the resul ts to be obtai ned by the use thereof),and MSCI,i ts affil i ates and any such thi rd party hereby expressl y di scl ai m al l warranti es of ori gi nal i ty,accuracy,compl eteness,m

85、erchantabi l i ty or fitness for a parti cul ar purpose wi th respect to any of thi s i nformati on.Wi thout l i mi ti ng any of the foregoi ng,i n no event shal l MSCI,any of i ts affil i ates or any thi rd party i nvol ved i n,or rel ated to,computi ng or compi l i ng the data have any l i abi l i

86、 ty for any di rect,i ndi rect,speci al,puni ti ve,consequenti al or any other damages(i ncl udi ng l ost profits)even i f noti fied of the possi bi l i ty of such damages.MSCI and the MSCI i ndexes are servi ce marks of MSCI and i ts affil i ates.The Gl obal I ndustry Cl assi ficati on Standard(GI

87、CS)were devel oped by and i s the excl usi ve property of MSCI and Standard&Poors.GI CS i s a servi ce mark of MSCI and S&P and has been l i censed for use by The Gol dman Sachs Group.Equi ty Basket Di sclosure The abi l i ty to trade the basket(s)di scussed i n thi s research wi l l depend upon mar

88、ket condi ti ons,i ncl udi ng l i qui di ty and borrow constrai nts at the ti me of trade.Regulatory di sclosures Di sclosures requi red by Uni ted States laws and regulati ons See company-speci fic regul atory di scl osures above for any of the fol l owi ng di scl osures requi red as to compani es

89、referred to i n thi s report:manager or co-manager i n a pendi ng transacti on;1%or other ownershi p;compensati on for certai n servi ces;types of cl i ent rel ati onshi ps;managed/co-managed publ i c offeri ngs i n pri or peri ods;di rectorshi ps;for equi ty securi ti es,market maki ng and/or speci

90、 al i st rol e.Gol dman Sachs trades or may trade as a pri nci pal i n debt securi ti es(or i n rel ated deri vati ves)of i ssuers di scussed i n thi s report.The fol l owi ng are addi ti onal requi red di scl osures:Ownershi p and materi al confli cts of i nterest:Gol dman Sachs pol i cy prohi bi t

91、s i ts anal ysts,professi onal s reporti ng to anal ysts and members of thei r househol ds from owni ng securi ti es of any company i n the anal ysts area of coverage.Anal yst compensati on:Anal ysts are pai d i n part based on the profitabi l i ty of Gol dman Sachs,whi ch i ncl udes i nvestment ban

92、ki ng revenues.Anal yst as officer or di rector:Gol dman Sachs pol i cy general l y prohi bi ts i ts anal ysts,persons reporti ng to anal ysts or members of thei r househol ds from servi ng as an officer,di rector or advi sor of any company i n the anal ysts area of coverage.Non-U.S.Anal ysts:Non-U.

93、S.anal ysts may not be associ ated persons of Gol dman Sachs&Co.LLC and therefore may not be subj ect to FI NRA Rul e 2241 or FI NRA Rul e 2242 restri cti ons on communi cati ons wi th subj ect company,publ i c appearances and tradi ng securi ti es hel d by the anal ysts.Addi ti onal di sclosures re

94、qui red under the laws and regulati ons of juri sdi cti ons other than the Uni ted States The fol l owi ng di scl osures are those requi red by the j uri sdi cti on i ndi cated,except to the extent al ready made above pursuant to Uni ted States l aws and regul ati ons.Austral i a:Gol dman Sachs Aust

95、ral i a Pty Ltd and i ts affil i ates are not authori sed deposi t-taki ng i nsti tuti ons(as that term i s defined i n the Banki ng Act 1959(Cth)i n Austral i a and do not provi de banki ng servi ces,nor carry on a banki ng busi ness,i n Austral i a.Thi s research,and any access to i t,i s i ntende

96、d onl y for“whol esal e cl i ents”wi thi n the meani ng of the Austral i an Corporati ons Act,unl ess otherwi se agreed by Gol dman Sachs.I n produci ng research reports,members of Gl obal I nvestment Research of Gol dman Sachs Austral i a may attend si te vi si ts and other meeti ngs hosted by the

97、compani es and other enti ti es whi ch are the subj ect of i ts research reports.I n some i nstances the costs of such si te vi si ts or meeti ngs may be met i n part or i n whol e by the i ssuers concerned i f Gol dman Sachs Austral i a consi ders i t i s appropri ate and reasonabl e i n the speci

98、fic ci rcumstances rel ati ng to the si te vi si t or meeti ng.To the extent that the contents of thi s document contai ns any financi al product advi ce,i t i s general advi ce onl y and has been prepared by Gol dman Sachs wi thout taki ng i nto account a cl i ents obj ecti ves,financi al si tuati

99、on or needs.A cl i ent shoul d,before acti ng on any such advi ce,consi der the appropri ateness of the advi ce havi ng regard to the cl i ents own obj ecti ves,financi al si tuati on and needs.A copy of certai n Gol dman Sachs Austral i a and New Zeal and di scl osure of i nterests and a copy of Go

100、l dman Sachs Austral i an Sel l-Si de Research I ndependence Pol i cy Statement are avai l abl e at:https:/www.gol scl osures/austral i a-new-zeal and/i ndex.html.Brazi l:Di scl osure i nformati on i n rel ati on to CVM Resol uti on n.20 i s avai l abl e at https:/ dwi de/brazi l/area/gi r/i ndex.ht

101、ml.Where appl i cabl e,the Brazi l-regi stered anal yst pri mari l y responsi bl e for the content of thi s research report,as defined i n Arti cl e 20 of CVM Resol uti on n.20,i s the first author named at the begi nni ng of thi s report,unl ess i ndi cated otherwi se at the end of the text.Canada:

102、Thi s i nformati on i s bei ng provi ded to you for i nformati on purposes onl y and i s not,and under no ci rcumstances shoul d be construed as,an adverti sement,offeri ng or sol i ci tati on by Gol dman Sachs&Co.LLC for purchasers of securi ti es i n Canada to trade i n any Canadi an securi ty.Gol

103、 dman Sachs&Co.LLC i s not regi stered as a deal er i n any j uri sdi cti on i n Canada under appl i cabl e Canadi an securi ti es l aws and general l y i s not permi tted to trade i n Canadi an securi ti es and may be prohi bi ted from sel l i ng certai n securi ti es and products i n certai n j ur

104、i sdi cti ons i n Canada.I f you wi sh to trade i n any Canadi an securi ti es or other products i n Canada pl ease contact Gol dman Sachs Canada I nc.,an affil i ate of The Gol dman Sachs Group I nc.,or another regi stered Canadi an deal er.Hong Kong:Further i nformati on on the securi ti es of cov

105、ered compani es referred to i n thi s research may be obtai ned on request from Gol dman Sachs(Asi a)L.L.C.Indi a:Further i nformati on on the subj ect company or compani es referred to i n thi s research may be obtai ned from Gol dman Sachs(I ndi a)Securi ti es Pri vate Li mi ted,Research Anal yst-

106、SEBI Regi strati on Number I NH000001493,951-A,Rati onal House,Appasaheb Marathe Marg,Prabhadevi,Mumbai 400 025,I ndi a,Corporate I denti ty Number U74140MH2006FTC160634,Phone+91 22 6616 9000,Fax+91 22 6616 9001.Gol dman Sachs may benefici al l y own 1%or more of the securi ti es(as such term i s de

107、fined i n cl ause 2(h)the I ndi an Securi ti es Contracts(Regul ati on)Act,1956)of the subj ect company or compani es referred to i n thi s research report.I nvestment i n securi ti es market are subj ect to market ri sks.Read al l the rel ated documents careful l y before i nvesti ng.Regi strati on

108、 granted by SEBI and certi ficati on from NI SM i n no way guarantee performance of the i ntermedi ary or provi de any assurance of returns to i nvestors.Gol dman Sachs(I ndi a)Securi ti es Pri vate Li mi ted I nvestor Gri evance E-mai l:i ndi a-cl i ent-.Compl i ance Officer:Ani l 14 October 2024 1

109、7Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy ViewsRaj put|Tel:+91 22 6616 9000|Emai l:ani l.m.raj .Japan:See bel ow.Korea:Thi s research,and any access to i t,i s i ntended onl y for“professi onal i nvestors”wi thi n the meani ng of the Fi nanci al Servi ces and Capi tal Markets Act,unl ess otherwi se agreed by Go

110、l dman Sachs.Further i nformati on on the subj ect company or compani es referred to i n thi s research may be obtai ned from Gol dman Sachs(Asi a)L.L.C.,Seoul Branch.New Zeal and:Gol dman Sachs New Zeal and Li mi ted and i ts affil i ates are nei ther“regi stered banks”nor“deposi t takers”(as defin

111、ed i n the Reserve Bank of New Zeal and Act 1989)i n New Zeal and.Thi s research,and any access to i t,i s i ntended for“whol esal e cl i ents”(as defined i n the Fi nanci al Advi sers Act 2008)unl ess otherwi se agreed by Gol dman Sachs.A copy of certai n Gol dman Sachs Austral i a and New Zeal and

112、 di scl osure of i nterests i s avai l abl e at:https:/www.gol scl osures/austral i a-new-zeal and/i ndex.html.Russi a:Research reports di stri buted i n the Russi an Federati on are not adverti si ng as defined i n the Russi an l egi sl ati on,but are i nformati on and anal ysi s not havi ng produc

113、t promoti on as thei r mai n purpose and do not provi de apprai sal wi thi n the meani ng of the Russi an l egi sl ati on on apprai sal acti vi ty.Research reports do not consti tute a personal i zed i nvestment recommendati on as defined i n Russi an l aws and regul ati ons,are not addressed to a s

114、peci fic cl i ent,and are prepared wi thout anal yzi ng the financi al ci rcumstances,i nvestment profil es or ri sk profil es of cl i ents.Gol dman Sachs assumes no responsi bi l i ty for any i nvestment deci si ons that may be taken by a cl i ent or any other person based on thi s research report.

115、Si ngapore:Gol dman Sachs(Si ngapore)Pte.(Company Number:198602165W),whi ch i s regul ated by the Monetary Authori ty of Si ngapore,accepts l egal responsi bi l i ty for thi s research,and shoul d be contacted wi th respect to any matters ari si ng from,or i n connecti on wi th,thi s research.Tai wa

116、n:Thi s materi al i s for reference onl y and must not be repri nted wi thout permi ssi on.I nvestors shoul d careful l y consi der thei r own i nvestment ri sk.I nvestment resul ts are the responsi bi l i ty of the i ndi vi dual i nvestor.Uni ted Ki ngdom:Persons who woul d be categori zed as retai

117、 l cl i ents i n the Uni ted Ki ngdom,as such term i s defined i n the rul es of the Fi nanci al Conduct Authori ty,shoul d read thi s research i n conj uncti on wi th pri or Gol dman Sachs research on the covered compani es referred to herei n and shoul d refer to the ri sk warni ngs that have been

118、 sent to them by Gol dman Sachs I nternati onal.A copy of these ri sks warni ngs,and a gl ossary of certai n financi al terms used i n thi s report,are avai l abl e from Gol dman Sachs I nternati onal on request.European Uni on and Uni ted Ki ngdom:Di scl osure i nformati on i n rel ati on to Arti c

119、l e 6(2)of the European Commi ssi on Del egated Regul ati on(EU)(2016/958)suppl ementi ng Regul ati on(EU)No 596/2014 of the European Parl i ament and of the Counci l (i ncl udi ng as that Del egated Regul ati on i s i mpl emented i nto Uni ted Ki ngdom domesti c l aw and regul ati on fol l owi ng t

120、he Uni ted Ki ngdoms departure from the European Uni on and the European Economi c Area)wi th regard to regul atory techni cal standards for the techni cal arrangements for obj ecti ve presentati on of i nvestment recommendati ons or other i nformati on recommendi ng or suggesti ng an i nvestment st

121、rategy and for di scl osure of parti cul ar i nterests or i ndi cati ons of confli cts of i nterest i s avai l abl e at https:/ scl osures/europeanpol i cy.html whi ch states the European Pol i cy for Managi ng Confli cts of I nterest i n Connecti on wi th I nvestment Research.Japan:Gol dman Sachs J

122、apan Co.,Ltd.i s a Fi nanci al I nstrument Deal er regi stered wi th the Kanto Fi nanci al Bureau under regi strati on number Ki nsho 69,and a member of Japan Securi ti es Deal ers Associ ati on,Fi nanci al Futures Associ ati on of Japan Type I I Fi nanci al I nstruments Fi rms Associ ati on,The I n

123、vestment Trusts Associ ati on,Japan,and Japan I nvestment Advi sers Associ ati on.Sal es and purchase of equi ti es are subj ect to commi ssi on pre-determi ned wi th cl i ents pl us consumpti on tax.See company-speci fic di scl osures as to any appl i cabl e di scl osures requi red by Japanese stoc

124、k exchanges,the Japanese Securi ti es Deal ers Associ ati on or the Japanese Securi ti es Fi nance Company.Global product;di stri buti ng enti ti es Gol dman Sachs Gl obal I nvestment Research produces and di stri butes research products for cl i ents of Gol dman Sachs on a gl obal basi s.Anal ysts

125、based i n Gol dman Sachs offices around the worl d produce research on i ndustri es and compani es,and research on macroeconomi cs,currenci es,commodi ti es and portfol i o strategy.Thi s research i s di ssemi nated i n Austral i a by Gol dman Sachs Austral i a Pty Ltd(ABN 21 006 797 897);i n Brazi

126、l by Gol dman Sachs do Brasi l Corretora de Ttul os e Val ores Mobi l i ri os S.A.;Publ i c Communi cati on Channel Gol dman Sachs Brazi l:0800 727 5764 and/or contatogol dmanbrasi l .Avai l abl e Weekdays(except hol i days),from 9am to 6pm.Canal de Comuni cao com o Pbl i co Gol dman Sachs Brasi l:0

127、800 727 5764 e/ou contatogol dmanbrasi l .Horri o de funci onamento:segunda-fei ra sexta-fei ra(exceto feri ados),das 9h s 18h;i n Canada by Gol dman Sachs&Co.LLC;i n Hong Kong by Gol dman Sachs(Asi a)L.L.C.;i n I ndi a by Gol dman Sachs(I ndi a)Securi ti es Pri vate Ltd.;i n Japan by Gol dman Sachs

128、 Japan Co.,Ltd.;i n the Republ i c of Korea by Gol dman Sachs(Asi a)L.L.C.,Seoul Branch;i n New Zeal and by Gol dman Sachs New Zeal and Li mi ted;i n Russi a by OOO Gol dman Sachs;i n Si ngapore by Gol dman Sachs(Si ngapore)Pte.(Company Number:198602165W);and i n the Uni ted States of Ameri ca by Go

129、l dman Sachs&Co.LLC.Gol dman Sachs I nternati onal has approved thi s research i n connecti on wi th i ts di stri buti on i n the Uni ted Ki ngdom.Gol dman Sachs I nternati onal (“GSI”),authori sed by the Prudenti al Regul ati on Authori ty(“PRA”)and regul ated by the Fi nanci al Conduct Authori ty(

130、“FCA”)and the PRA,has approved thi s research i n connecti on wi th i ts di stri buti on i n the Uni ted Ki ngdom.European Economi c Area:GSI,authori sed by the PRA and regul ated by the FCA and the PRA,di ssemi nates research i n the fol l owi ng j uri sdi cti ons wi thi n the European Economi c Ar

131、ea:the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg,I tal y,the Ki ngdom of Bel gi um,the Ki ngdom of Denmark,the Ki ngdom of Norway,the Republ i c of Fi nl and and the Republ i c of I rel and;GSI -Succursal e de Pari s(Pari s branch)whi ch i s authori sed by the French Autori t de contrl e prudenti el et de resol uti

132、 on(“ACPR”)and regul ated by the Autori t de contrl e prudenti el et de resol uti on and the Autori t des marches financi ers(“AMF”)di ssemi nates research i n France;GSI -Sucursal en Espaa(Madri d branch)authori zed i n Spai n by the Comi si n Naci onal del Mercado de Val ores di ssemi nates resear

133、ch i n the Ki ngdom of Spai n;GSI -Sweden Bankfil i al (Stockhol m branch)i s authori zed by the SFSA as a“thi rd country branch”i n accordance wi th Chapter 4,Secti on 4 of the Swedi sh Securi ti es and Market Act(Sw.l ag(2007:528)om vrdepappersmarknaden)di ssemi nates research i n the Ki ngdom of

134、Sweden;Gol dman Sachs Bank Europe SE(“GSBE”)i s a credi t i nsti tuti on i ncorporated i n Germany and,wi thi n the Si ngl e Supervi sory Mechani sm,subj ect to di rect prudenti al supervi si on by the European Central Bank and i n other respects supervi sed by German Federal Fi nanci al Supervi sor

135、y Authori ty(Bundesanstal t fr Fi nanzdi enstl ei stungsaufsi cht,BaFi n)and Deutsche Bundesbank and di ssemi nates research i n the Federal Republ i c of Germany and those j uri sdi cti ons wi thi n the European Economi c Area where GSI i s not authori sed to di ssemi nate research and addi ti onal

136、 l y,GSBE,Copenhagen Branch fil i al af GSBE,Tyskl and,supervi sed by the Dani sh Fi nanci al Authori ty di ssemi nates research i n the Ki ngdom of Denmark;GSBE-Sucursal en Espaa(Madri d branch)subj ect(to a l i mi ted extent)to l ocal supervi si on by the Bank of Spai n di ssemi nates research i n

137、 the Ki ngdom of Spai n;GSBE-Succursal e I tal i a(Mi l an branch)to the rel evant appl i cabl e extent,subj ect to l ocal supervi si on by the Bank of I tal y(Banca dI tal i a)and the I tal i an Compani es and Exchange Commi ssi on(Commi ssi one Nazi onal e per l e Soci et e l a Borsa“Consob”)di ss

138、emi nates research i n I tal y;GSBE-Succursal e de Pari s(Pari s branch),supervi sed by the AMF and by the ACPR di ssemi nates research i n France;and GSBE-Sweden Bankfil i al (Stockhol m branch),to a l i mi ted extent,subj ect to l ocal supervi si on by the Swedi sh Fi nanci al Supervi sory Authori

139、 ty(Fi nansi npekti onen)di ssemi nates research i n the Ki ngdom of Sweden.General di sclosures Thi s research i s for our cl i ents onl y.Other than di scl osures rel ati ng to Gol dman Sachs,thi s research i s based on current publ i c i nformati on that we consi der rel i abl e,but we do not rep

140、resent i t i s accurate or compl ete,and i t shoul d not be rel i ed on as such.The i nformati on,opi ni ons,esti mates and forecasts contai ned herei n are as of the date hereof and are subj ect to change wi thout pri or noti ficati on.We seek to update our research as appropri ate,but vari ous reg

141、ul ati ons may prevent us from doi ng so.Other than certai n i ndustry reports publ i shed on a peri odi c basi s,the l arge maj ori ty of reports are publ i shed at i rregul ar i nterval s as appropri ate i n the anal ysts j udgment.Gol dman Sachs conducts a gl obal ful l-servi ce,i ntegrated i nve

142、stment banki ng,i nvestment management,and brokerage busi ness.We have i nvestment banki ng and other busi ness rel ati onshi ps wi th a substanti al percentage of the compani es covered by Gl obal I nvestment Research.Gol dman Sachs&Co.LLC,the Uni ted States broker deal er,i s a member of SI PC(htt

143、ps:/www.si pc.org).Our sal espeopl e,traders,and other professi onal s may provi de oral or wri tten market commentary or tradi ng strategi es to our cl i ents and pri nci pal 14 October 2024 18Goldman SachsGlobal Strategy Viewstradi ng desks that reflect opi ni ons that are contrary to the opi ni o

144、ns expressed i n thi s research.Our asset management area,pri nci pal tradi ng desks and i nvesti ng busi nesses may make i nvestment deci si ons that are i nconsi stent wi th the recommendati ons or vi ews expressed i n thi s research.We and our affil i ates,officers,di rectors,and empl oyees wi l

145、l from ti me to ti me have l ong or short posi ti ons i n,act as pri nci pal i n,and buy or sel l,the securi ti es or deri vati ves,i f any,referred to i n thi s research,unl ess otherwi se prohi bi ted by regul ati on or Gol dman Sachs pol i cy.The vi ews attri buted to thi rd party presenters at G

146、ol dman Sachs arranged conferences,i ncl udi ng i ndi vi dual s from other parts of Gol dman Sachs,do not necessari l y reflect those of Gl obal I nvestment Research and are not an offici al vi ew of Gol dman Sachs.Any thi rd party referenced herei n,i ncl udi ng any sal espeopl e,traders and other

147、professi onal s or members of thei r househol d,may have posi ti ons i n the products menti oned that are i nconsi stent wi th the vi ews expressed by anal ysts named i n thi s report.Thi s research i s focused on i nvestment themes across markets,i ndustri es and sectors.I t does not attempt to di

148、sti ngui sh between the prospects or performance of,or provi de anal ysi s of,i ndi vi dual compani es wi thi n any i ndustry or sector we descri be.Any tradi ng recommendati on i n thi s research rel ati ng to an equi ty or credi t securi ty or securi ti es wi thi n an i ndustry or sector i s refle

149、cti ve of the i nvestment theme bei ng di scussed and i s not a recommendati on of any such securi ty i n i sol ati on.Thi s research i s not an offer to sel l or the sol i ci tati on of an offer to buy any securi ty i n any j uri sdi cti on where such an offer or sol i ci tati on woul d be i l l eg

150、al.I t does not consti tute a personal recommendati on or take i nto account the parti cul ar i nvestment obj ecti ves,financi al si tuati ons,or needs of i ndi vi dual cl i ents.Cl i ents shoul d consi der whether any advi ce or recommendati on i n thi s research i s sui tabl e for thei r parti cul

151、 ar ci rcumstances and,i f appropri ate,seek professi onal advi ce,i ncl udi ng tax advi ce.The pri ce and val ue of i nvestments referred to i n thi s research and the i ncome from them may fluctuate.Past performance i s not a gui de to future performance,future returns are not guaranteed,and a l o

152、ss of ori gi nal capi tal may occur.Fl uctuati ons i n exchange rates coul d have adverse effects on the val ue or pri ce of,or i ncome deri ved from,certai n i nvestments.Certai n transacti ons,i ncl udi ng those i nvol vi ng futures,opti ons,and other deri vati ves,gi ve ri se to substanti al ri s

153、k and are not sui tabl e for al l i nvestors.I nvestors shoul d revi ew current opti ons and futures di scl osure documents whi ch are avai l abl e from Gol dman Sachs sal es representati ves or at https:/ i cati ons/character-ri sks.j sp and https:/www.fiadocumentati on.org/fia/regul atory-di scl o

154、sures_1/fia-uni form-futures-and-opti ons-on-futures-ri sk-di scl osures-bookl et-pdf-versi on-2018.Transacti on costs may be si gni ficant i n opti on strategi es cal l i ng for mul ti pl e purchase and sal es of opti ons such as spreads.Supporti ng documentati on wi l l be suppl i ed upon request.

155、Di ff eri ng Level s of Servi ce provi ded by Gl obal Investment Research:The l evel and types of servi ces provi ded to you by Gol dman Sachs Gl obal I nvestment Research may vary as compared to that provi ded to i nternal and other external cl i ents of GS,dependi ng on vari ous factors i ncl udi

156、ng your i ndi vi dual preferences as to the frequency and manner of recei vi ng communi cati on,your ri sk profil e and i nvestment focus and perspecti ve(e.g.,marketwi de,sector speci fic,l ong term,short term),the si ze and scope of your overal l cl i ent rel ati onshi p wi th GS,and l egal and re

157、gul atory constrai nts.As an exampl e,certai n cl i ents may request to recei ve noti ficati ons when research on speci fic securi ti es i s publ i shed,and certai n cl i ents may request that speci fic data underl yi ng anal ysts fundamental anal ysi s avai l abl e on our i nternal cl i ent websi t

158、es be del i vered to them el ectroni cal l y through data feeds or otherwi se.No change to an anal ysts fundamental research vi ews(e.g.,rati ngs,pri ce targets,or materi al changes to earni ngs esti mates for equi ty securi ti es),wi l l be communi cated to any cl i ent pri or to i ncl usi on of su

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