1、NOVEMBER 2024THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE EU TYRE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY23The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryTABLE OF CONTENTSForeword 4Executive summary 61.Introduction 101.1 Introduction to the EU tyre manufacturing indus

2、try 101.2 How the EU Tyre manufacturing industry supports the EU economy 131.3 Structure of the report 142.The core economic footprint of EU tyre manufacturing 162.1 Value of production of tyre manufacturing 162.2 Direct impacts 162.3 Indirect impacts due to supply-chain spending 172.4 Induced impac

3、ts due to spending on wages 192.5 The Total Core Economic footprint 193.The core economic footprint:historic trends 223.1 Trends in vehicle and tyre production 223.2 Trends in the Contribution to GDP 233.3 Trends in the employment supported 244.International trade analysis 264.1 Total exports and im

4、ports of tyres 264.2 Barriers to trade 274.3 Supply chain imports 285.R&D impacts 305.1 The importance of R&D 305.2 The contribution of tyre manufacturers to long-run productivity in the EU 306.Further impacts of EU tyre manufacturing 346.1 Downstream economic impacts enabled by EU-produced tyres 34

5、6.2 The Circular economy for tyres 35Appendix:Methodology 38Cover photo:Tong_stocker/SAll images from S45The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryFOREWORDIm pleased to introduce this report by Oxford Economics,highlighting the

6、substantial socio-economic role the tyre industry plays in Europe.In a rapidly changing environment,this study gives a clear picture of our sectors vital contribution to Europes industrial competitiveness,driven by economic growth,innovation,and productivity.These findings underline that tyres are n

7、ot just about mobility but also keep the economy moving forward.The numbers speak for themselves.In 2023,the tyre industry contributed 13.9 billion directly to the EU economy-an economic impact comparable to cities like Hannover or Venice.Each euro generated in the sector has a multiplier effect of

8、3.2,with far-reaching benefits through our factories,supply chains,and R&D centres,with a total contribution to the European GDP of 43.9 billion.European tyre manufacturers directly employ over 112,000 workers and support additional jobs through their supply chains and wage-induced spending,totallin

9、g 498,000 jobs across the European Union(EU).This illustrates that the industry is not only rooted in Europes rich automotive history but also continues to play a critical role in job creation in communities across Europe,with 93 plants and 17 research and development(R&D)centres.The industry has al

10、so shown continued commitment to innovation and delivering safer and more sustainable mobility:between 2017 and 2023,10 billion was invested in R&D.This investment is expected to yield long-term productivity benefits,contributing 4.6 billion to the EU GDP in 2035,with significant spillover effects a

11、cross the economy.However,the sector is still navigating the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic,which has significantly impacted the automotive industry and consumers purchasing power.For example,consumer tyre production remained 13%below pre-pandemic levels.Despite a positive trade balance of 0.4 b

12、illion,competing globally and within Europe is increasingly difficult due to high energy costs and evolving regulations.With the start of a new EU legislative term,theres an opportunity to strengthen our industrys competitiveness.Support for a reliable supply of raw materials,fair competition,and a

13、balanced regulatory approach are needed for Europes tyre sector to thrive in a complex global market.This also includes fostering digitalisation and innovation to develop and deploy more sustainable materials,leading to more circular,safer,and smarter products and services.This research from Oxford

14、Economics aims to give policymakers,stakeholders,and the wider public a practical understanding of the significant economic and social contributions the tyre industry makes to Europe and recognise the strategic nature of tyres,which underpin vital aspects of logistics,agriculture and daily mobility

15、of European citizens across the continent.Chris Delaney President,ETRMAS67The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryEXECUTIVE SUMMARYTyres are an important enabler of mobility,allowing the transport of people and goods within an

16、d between economies.Their quality is of great importance,determining the safety,performance,and comfort of travel.In 2023,members of the European Tyre&Rubber Manufacturers Association(ETRMA)sold over 300 million tyres from their EU facilities.This study,commissioned by the European Tyre and Rubber M

17、anufacturers Association,assesses the impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industry on the EU economy,focusing on three key areas.First,we quantify the core economic footprint of the EU tyre manufacturing industry in 2014,2019,and 2023.Then,we review the importance of trade in tyres to the EU economy

18、.Finally,we quantify the impact of R&D spending by EU tyre manufacturers on the long-term productivity of the EU economy.CORE ECONOMIC FOOTPRINTThe EU tyre manufacturing industry supported an estimated total contribution to GDP of 43.9 billion in 2023.This contribution is 13%higher than 2014(in cons

19、tant 2023 prices).1 The 2023 contribution to GDP was comprised of 13.9 billion generated by the manufacturers themselves(direct impact),20.0 billion supported through their supply chains(indirect impact),and 10.0 billion supported by the wage spending of the direct and indirect workers(induced impac

20、t).As the total GDP impact across the EU economy was 3.2 times the direct impact alone,EU tyre manufacturers can be said to have had a“GDP multiplier”of 3.2.In other words,for every 1 million contribution to GDP the EU tyre manufacturing industry generated in 2023,it supported a further 2.2 million

21、across the EU economy through their expenditure.This economic contribution is estimated to have supported almost half a million jobs across the EU in 2023.This represented a fall of 6%since 2014.While tyre production grew over the period,the fall in the total employment supported by the industry ref

22、lects productivity improvements across the wider EU economy and changes in market dynamics,with increased competition from other parts of the world.In 2023,tyre manufacturers themselves employed 112,000 workers,equivalent to one in every 270 workers employed in manufacturing across the EU.A further

23、259,000 jobs were supported through supply-chain impacts,and 128,000 jobs were supported through the wage-financed spending of the tyre manufacturers employees,and employees in their supply chains.1 Unless otherwise stated,all monetary values in this Executive Summary are measured in constant,2023 p

24、rices.In other words,the impact has been adjusted for inflation using the EU whole-economy GDP deflator.In this case,the employment multiplier was 4.5.This means that for every 1,000 people employed in the EU tyre manufacturing industry,an additional 3,500 jobs were supported in other parts of the E

25、U economy.The larger employment multiplier than the GDP multiplier reflects the high productivity of workers in the industry.In 2023,we estimate that the productivity of tyre manufacturing workers was approximately 60%higher than the average across the EU economy.The total tax contribution supported

26、 by this activity was 12.2 billion through all channels of impact.This would have been enough to pay the wages of almost 295,000 professionals in the teaching,health,and social care sectors.INTERNATIONAL TRADEIn 2023,the value of EU tyre exports was 7.4 billionequivalent to 12%of the value of total

27、EU exports in manufactured rubber and plastic products.At the same time,the region imported 6.9 billion in tyres,resulting in a 0.4 billion trade surplus.2 There was a trade surplus for every year between 2014 and 2023,except 2022.In 2022,the trade deficit could be linked to the temporary removal of

28、 anti-dumping duties on imports of bus and truck tyres from China,which saw imports of these goods surge by around one-third.The tyre manufacturing industry also requires international trade for inputs into the tyre production process.In 2023,EU tyre manufacturers spent 4.2 billion or 15%of their to

29、tal spend on inputs from outside of the EU.The largest shares of this were spent on chemical products and natural rubber from countries including Cote dIvoire,Thailand,and Indonesia.R&D IMPACTSCompanies in the tyre manufacturing industry invest heavily in R&D,driving widespread economic benefits.Bet

30、ween 2017 and 2023 the tyre manufacturers in the scope of the analysis spent an estimated 10 billion on R&D in the EU.The productivity boost resulting from this spend benefits both the tyre manufacturing industry itself(direct R&D impact)and the wider economy(R&D spillover effect).Over the long term

31、,these benefits combine to create new economic conditions across the EU,and are associated with increased productivity levels,contributing 4.6 billion to GDP across the EU in 2035.32 Figures do not sum due to rounding.3 Our modelling shows that R&D-stimulated productivity benefits start accruing alm

32、ost immediately and grow over time,though at a decreasing rate.We expect the full extent of the gains to be realised by 2035,leading to a lasting boost to EU GDP beyond 2035.43.9 billionTotal GDP contribution of the EU tyre manufacturing industry.7.4 billionValue of tyre exports from the EU in 2023.

33、498,000jobs Total employment supported by the EU tyre manufacturing industry.4.2 billionProcurement spending outside of the EU by the EU tyre industry in 2023.4.6 billionProductivity boost to the EU economy in 2035 from R&D spending.498,000 jobsThe EU tyre manufacturing industry supported:IMPORTANCE

34、 OF THE TYRE INDUSTRY TO THE EUSUPPORTING GDP&JOBS ACROSS THE EUROPEAN UNIONMore than 300 million tyres are sold in the EU each year.GLOBAL TRADEExports7.4 billionImports6.9 billionTrade surplus0.4 billionNote:Unless otherwise specified,all values in this infographic relate to 2023,and all monetary

35、values are measured in constant,2023 prices.In other words,the impact has been adjusted for inflation using the EU whole-economy GDP deflator.Totals may not sum due to rounding.up 13%in 2023 relative to 201443.9 billioncontribution to EU GDP Direct:13.9 bnDirect:112,000Indirect:20.0 bnIndirect:259,0

36、00Induced:10.0 bnInduced:128,0003.2 GDP multiplier4.5 employment multiplierFor every 1 million directly generated by the tyre industry,a further 2.2 million was supported in the EU economy.For every 1,000 workers directly employed an additional 3,500 jobs were supported in the EU economy.12.2 billio

37、n in tax revenuesenough to pay 295,000 workers in the teaching,health,and social care sectors.R&D IMPACTSFINISHED GOODS15%of tyre manufacturers spend(4.2 billion)was on importssuch as chemical products and natural rubberfrom outside of the EU.SUPPLY CHAINOver 20,000 patents held by ETRMA members.The

38、 10.0 billion R&D spending of ETRMA members between 2017 and 2023.projected to boost the productivity of the EU economy by 4.6billion in 2035.1011The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industry1.INTRODUCTIONFrom cars and trucks to ai

39、rplanes and trains,tyres are a core component of a vehicles infrastructure.As the only point of contact between a vehicle and the road,tyres are vital to ensure the safety and other critical performances of a vehicle.This study,commissioned by the European Tyre&Rubber Manufacturers Association(ETRMA

40、)and undertaken by Oxford Economics,examines the economic impact of tyre manufacturing in the EU.4 ETRMA Tyre sales 2021,ETRMA,January 2022,accessed April 20245 Unless otherwise stated,all monetary values in this report are measured in constant,2023 prices.In other words,the impact has been adjusted

41、 for inflation using the EU whole-economy GDP deflator.6 Oxford Economics Global Industry Databank7 ETRMA,“European replacement tyre sales continue negative trend in last quarter of 2023”,accessed August 20248 YouGov,“How often do consumers in major markets change their tyres?”,2021,accessed April 2

42、0249 LIZEO,European Tyre Labelling 2012-20,Approaching the New Label,2021,accessed May 20241.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE EU TYRE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRYThe EU is home to some of the largest tyre manufacturing companies in the world.In 2023,ETRMA members sold over 300 million original and replacement tyres

43、for cars and trucks,from their plants and facilities located in the EU.4 These companies produce innovative and technologically advanced tyres,allowing them to remain successful in a highly competitive market.While tyres are well used in vehicles commonly found on the roads such as cars,buses,trucks

44、 and motorbikes and bicycles,they are also used in agriculture,industry,and aviation.We estimate that the value of output of the EU tyre manufacturing industry was 40.0 billion in 2023.This was up 14%relative to 2014(inconstant 2023 prices).5 As a consequence,the industry supports significant econom

45、ic activity,international trade,jobs,and tax revenues across the EU,which we quantify in Sections 2 to 4 of this report.Demand for tyres is driven by production of motor vehicles,and purchases by consumers,fleets,and businesses to replace tyres in their existing vehicles.In 2023,the EU produced 12.4

46、 million cars,and 2.2 million commercial vehicles,requiring 58.4 million tyres.6 In the same year,over 208 million replacement consumer tyres were sold in the region by ETRMA members.7Road safety laws play an important role in how often consumers in Europe replace their tyres.A 2021 survey of four k

47、ey tyre markets(Great Britain,the United States,Germany,and Australia)revealed that Germans are the most likely to change their tyres regularly,with one in five stating that they would change their tyres once a year or more.8 This likely reflects the variations in weather in the country which can re

48、quire winter and non-winter sets.In seven EU countries,winter tyres are mandatory,and in nine additional EU countries(including Germany),they are mandatory in certain weatherconditions.In the European market,price is also a key factor influencing consumers choice of tyre.While there is evidence of a

49、 marked improvement in the quality of premium tyres between 2013 and 2020,the share of budget products in the market increased from 39%to 62%for passenger car tyres,and from 13%to 30%for truck and bus tyres.9 This is driven by an increasing supply of cheaper tyres from China.Fig.1:Vehicles that use

50、tyresFig.2:ETRMA member organisation locations in the EUSource:ETRMA,ETRMA membersPASSENGER CARSHEAVY TRUCK,BUSMOTOBIKEAGRIINDUSTRIALOFF THE ROAD(e.g.,mining)AEROSPACEManufacturersFINLANDNK:1 NK:1 NK:1AT=Apollo TyresBS=BridgestoneCN=Continental GY=GoodyearHK=HankookMA=MarangoniMI=MichelinNK=NokianNT

51、=Nexen TiresPI=PirelliPR=PrometeonSU=Sumitomo Rubber IndustriesTT=Toyo TyresYO=YokohamaETRMA members account for:71 Plants,including retreading*23 R&D Centres14 Headquarters*Only retreading operations belonging to ETRMA MembersLATVIAYO:1POLANDBS:2GY:1MI:1SLOVENIAGY:1YO:1CZECHIACN:2NT:1YO:3CN:1 NT:1N

52、ETHERLANDSAT:1GY:1AT:1AT:1FRANCEBS:1CN:1GY:3MI:10 MI:1MI:1GERMANYCN:2GY:5HK:1MA:1MI:1AT:1CN:1GY:1NT:1SU:1TT:1CN:1HK:1SU:1TT:1LUXEMBOURGGY:2 GY:1BELGIUMBS:2 BS:1GY:1ITALYBS:1MA:2MI:3PI:1YO:1BS:2MA:1PI:1PR:1YO:1MA:1PI:1PR:1YO:1SLOVAKIACN:2 CN:1ROMANIACN:1MI:2PI:1CN:1PI:1SPAINBS:4MI:1NK:1PORTUGALCN:3CN

53、:1HUNGARYAT:1BS:1HK:1MI:1AT:11213The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industry THE TYRE PERFORMANCE TRIANGLE10 European Commission,“A Consumers Guide to Energy Efficient Tyres”,accessed September 202411 These materials include rubb

54、er compounds,synthetic polymers(artificial materials produced in laboratories),steel,textiles,fillers(sealants),and antioxidants and antiozonants(compounds resisting the negative impact of reactions with oxygen and ozone respectively).The optimal curing systemthe chemical cross-linking of rubber and

55、 vulcanising agents(rubber-strengthening compounds)will also vary by type of tyre.Tyres are a technically complex product,manufactured to guard against wear and tear,provide a firm grip in wet conditions,and counter the poor fuel efficiency caused by rolling resistance.However,the laws of physics an

56、d material science result in a tyre“performance triangle”where high performance in one of these areas comes at the expense of the others.Tyres can account for 20%to 30%of the fuel consumption of vehicles,and a tyre with lower rolling resistance will reduce a vehicles energy consumption,resulting in

57、better fuel efficiency and lower CO2 emissions.10 But,this must be balanced against reduced traction on wet or slippery surfaces.Manufacturers carefully combine materials to optimise the“performance triangle”dependent on the purpose of the tyre.The optimal material composition of the tyre will vary

58、between those designed for use in the summer,winter,and all seasons.11 While vehicle manufacturers will typically consider around 15 performance criteria,tyre manufacturers evaluate around 50,to optimise overall tyre performance.1.2 HOW THE EU TYRE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY SUPPORTS THE EU ECONOMYThe t

59、yre manufacturing process in the EU involves skilled employment,associated with the production of valuable goods and services,and the generation of tax revenues.But the economic benefits of the industrys activity extend well beyond that,by supporting work and wealth creation in other parts of the Eu

60、ropean economy.To capture the various strands of economic benefit provided by the EU tyre manufacturing industry,this study applies a standard means of analysis called an economic impact assessment.More specifically,we quantify the impact of tyre manufacturing on the EU economy in 2014,2019,and 2023

61、.The analysis is underpinned by official statistics on national economies and transactions between industries and countries across the EU,as well as a bespoke survey of the financial and employment performance of ETRMA members.The standard impact assessment framework considers three channels through

62、 which the tyre manufacturing industry contributes to the EU economy:The direct impact,which relates to the value of tyre manufacturing in the EU,and the associated employment.The indirect impact,or supply chain impact,which occurs when companies in the industry buy inputs of goods and services from

63、 businesses in the EU,and their suppliers(or businesses in their supply chains)buy inputs of goods and services from other EU businesses.The induced impact,or wage-financed spending impact,which is the economic activity stimulated from both the industrys and the industrys suppliers wage payments to

64、employees.The total economic impactor core economic“footprint”as it is also knownis the sum of these three impacts(Fig.4).Fig.4:Channels of impact assessed for the core economic footprintFig.3:EU tyre labelEXTERIOR NOISEFUEL EFFICIENCYWET GRIPSUPPLIERS NAMETyre type identifierTyre class2020/740A AB

65、BC CD DE EA AB BC CD DE EDCABCXYdBInsert here the tyre QR codeSizeRollingresistanceCornering powerLateral accelerationBraking performancesAquaplaningInterior noiseAbrasionWearComfortExteriornoiseWet gripTOTALIMPACTINDUCEDIMPACTEmployees(including of the suppliers)spend their wages in the wider EU ec

66、onomy,generating more GDP,and supporting more employment.Added together,these three efects direct,indirect,inducedcomprise the total economic impact of tyre manufacturing in the EU.INDIRECTIMPACTThe companies spend money with suppliers who employ staf and generate GDP.They use other suppliers in tur

67、n.DIRECTIMPACTTyre companies employ staf and generate GDP from their manufacturing activities.1415The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact is measured by three metrics:the gross value-added contribution to G

68、DP(hereafter the“GDP contribution”),as well as the employment headcount,and tax revenues supported.We also quantify the wider“catalytic”economic impacts,through which the companies R&D spending contributes to long-run productivity growth.Since the benefits of R&D are realised over the long run,we lo

69、ok at total spending on R&D over several yearsbetween 2017 and 2023to build a full picture of the impacts.Identified from our in-house R&D model,the boost to productivity comes from both new innovations and from enhancing the skills of the labour force.The model includes two channels of benefits sup

70、ported by thisinvestment:Those which accrue directly to the tyre manufacturers undertaking the research;and The spillover benefits generated as firms in other sectors of the economy apply the resulting knowledge and innovations to develop new products and improve operational efficiency.1.3 STRUCTURE

71、 OF THE REPORTThe remainder of this report is structured as follows:Section 2 assesses the 2023 core economic footprint of the tyre manufacturing industry in the EU,through the direct,indirect,and induced channels of impact.Section 3 explores how the core economic footprint changed between 2014 and2

72、023.Section 4 sets out the importance of international trade in tyres to the EU economy.Section 5 quantifies the impact of ETRMA members R&D activities on the EU economys productive capacity.Section 6 qualitatively discusses the downstream economic impacts of tyre manufacturing,and the“circular econ

73、omy”for tyres.The Appendices provide a detailed description of the methodology.S1617The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industry2.THE CORE ECONOMIC FOOTPRINT OF EU TYRE MANUFACTURINGThe EU tyre manufacturing industry generates an

74、economic footprint across the EU.This core economic footprint is realised through the blending,milling,building,and curing processes required for making tyres,as well as through their supply chain spending and the spending supported by their wage payments and the wages along their supply chains.2.1

75、VALUE OF PRODUCTION OF TYRE MANUFACTURINGWe estimate that the value of production of tyre manufacturing in the EU was 35.1 billion in 2023.Almost three-quarters(or 26.1 billion)of this value reflected expenditure on goods and services.Employment costs and capital procurement made up the remaining sh

76、ares of 19%and 6%,respectively.12 Profits are measured as gross operating surplus.13 Productivity is calculated as GDP per worker.2.2 DIRECT IMPACTSThe EU tyre manufacturing industry generated an estimated 13.9 billion direct contribution to GDP across the EU economy in 2023.Its GDP contribution is

77、calculated by summing employment costs(6.8billion)and profits(7.1billion).12 The EU tyre manufacturing industry employed 112,000 workers across the EU during 2023.This was equivalent to one in every 270 workers employed in manufacturing in the Union.Workers in the industry are highly productive.In 2

78、023,they generated an estimated economic value of 124,600 per worker.13 This was 58%higher than the average across all sectors in the EU and contributes to improving living standards across the region.Further to this,it was approximately 50%greater than the productivity of EU manufacturing as a whol

79、e,while also being higher than several other productive manufacturing sub-sectors including basic metals,machinery,motor vehicles,and other transport equipment.Additionally,we estimate that the tyre manufacturing industry directly contributed 3.5 billion to the tax authorities in the EU in 2023.Labo

80、ur taxes accounted for more than halfor 1.9 billionof this impact,followed by taxes on products which accounted for just under one-thirdor 1.1 billion.The remaining contribution was comprised of taxes on production and corporation tax.Fig.6:Productivity GDP of other sectors in the EU economy,2023142

81、.3 INDIRECT IMPACTS DUE TO SUPPLY-CHAIN SPENDING14 Motor vehicles refers to the Manufacture of motor vehicles,trailers and semi-trailers.This includes cars,vans,trucks,and the manufacturing of parts for these vehicles.15 Figures do not sum due to rounding.We also consider impacts as a result of supp

82、ly-chain spendingknown as the indirect impacts.The EU tyre manufacturing industry must purchase natural and man-made materials to produce tyres,alongside a wide range of professional and business support services to ensure the smooth running of the whole enterprise.A clear majority of these services

83、 are purchased from suppliers also based in the EU,which buy inputs of goods and services from other EU suppliers in turn.In 2023,we estimate that the EU tyre manufacturing industry spent 28.2 billion on third-party purchases from around the world.This included both operational and capital spending.

84、An estimated 85%or 24.1 billionwas spent on inputs from EU-based suppliers,while the remaining 15%or 4.2 billionwas spent on imports from the Rest of the World.15 Importantly,around one-third(or 1.3 billion)of these imports were on natural rubber from countries including Cote dIvoire,Thailand,and In

85、donesia.Fig.5:Value of production of tyre activity in the EU,2023Fig.7:Spend with EU suppliers by sector,2023Source:Oxford Economics,Eurostat,ETRMA membersEmployment costsCapital procurementNon-capital procurementTotal:35.1 billion6.8 bn2.2 bn26.1 bnSource:Oxford Economics020,00040,00060,000140,0001

86、20,000100,00080,000TyresMachineryBasic metalsMotor vehiclesOther transport equipmentManufacturing(all sectors)Note:Manufacturing sub-sectors(excluding tyres)are estimated based on 2021 values grown in line with productivity in the manufacturing sector as a whole.124,600102,30095,20094,70094,30084,30

87、0Source:Oxford Economics,Eurostat,ETRMA membersTotal:24.1 billionBusiness servicesChemical productsBasic metalsUtilitiesMachinery&equipmentTextilesFinance&insuranceOther8.6 bn7.7 bn1.9 bn1.8 bn1.1 bn1.0 bn0.6 bn1.3 bn1819The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of

88、 the EU tyre manufacturing industryOf the total value of inputs purchased from EU suppliers,an estimated 8.6 billionor 36%was spent in the business services sector.This included costs related to freelance and agency staff,property management,and intellectual property rights.The next largest amount w

89、as spent on chemical products,which accounted for 7.7 billionor 32%of the total spend within the EU.This included vital products for tyre production such as synthetic rubber,fillers,antioxidants,antiozonants,and curing systems.We estimate that EU tyre manufacturing industrys supply chain spending st

90、imulated a 20.0 billion indirect contribution to GDP across the EU.The business services sector,accounted for one-thirdor 6.6 billionof this impact.This was followed by chemical products with a contribution of 3.1 billion and wholesale and retail trade with a contribution of 1.6 billion.We estimate

91、this economic activity also supported 259,000 jobs,and a tax contribution of 6.1 billion in 2023.Fig.8:Indirect contribution to GDP by sector,20232.4 INDUCED IMPACTS DUE TO SPENDING ON WAGESIn addition,the tyre manufacturers and their suppliers will pay wages to their staff,enabling those workers to

92、 spend money in the wider consumer economy.Employees make purchases at retail,leisure,and other outlets across the EU and beyond,further stimulating economic activity.We estimate that,through the induced channel,the EU tyre manufacturing industry sustained an additional 10.0 billion contribution to

93、GDP across the EU,as well as around 128,000 jobs,and 2.6 billion in tax contributions.By sector,the real estate sector supported 2.0 billion,or around one-fifth,of the induced contribution to GDP.This was driven by spending on rent and housing by employees,an important component of consumer spending

94、.This was followed by the retail and healthcare sectors with contributions of 1.3 billion(13%)and 1.1 billion(11%)respectively.2.5 THE TOTAL CORE ECONOMIC FOOTPRINTIn 2023,the EU tyre manufacturing industry supported an estimated 43.9 billion contribution to GDP across the EU economy.This was compri

95、sed of 13.9 billion in the direct channel,20.0 billion in the indirect channel,and 10.0 billion in the induced channel.Since the total GDP impact in 2023 was 3.2 times the direct GDP impact alone,this means that the EU tyre manufacturing industry had an estimated GDP multiplier of 3.2.Put differentl

96、y,for every 1 million in GDP generated by the manufacturers themselves,their expenditure on inputs and wages stimulated a further 2.2 million in GDP across the EU.Fig.9:Total GDP impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industry,2023Source:Oxford Economics,Eurostat,ETRMA members billion0.02.04.06.01.03.0

97、5.07.08.06.6 3.1 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 1.9 Business servicesChemical productsWholesale&retail tradeUtilitiesFinance&insuranceHealthMachinery&equipmentReal estateTransportBasic metalsTextilesOther manufacturingConstructionITMetal productsOther billion0DirectIndirectTotal

98、1020304050Induced13.920.010.013.920.010.043.9Source:Oxford Economics,Eurostat,ETRMA membersNote:Totals may not sum due to rounding2021The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryWe estimate that the EU tyre manufacturing industry

99、also supported a total of 498,000 jobs across the EU in 2023.Of this,112,000 workers were directly employed by the tyre manufacturers themselves,while 259,000 jobs were supported through the indirect channel,and 128,000 jobs were supported through the wage-induced spending of the direct and indirect

100、 employees.This implies that the employment multiplier was 4.5 in 2023.In other words,for every 1,000 people employed in the EU tyre manufacturing industry,an additional 3,500 jobs were supported in other parts of the EU economy in 2023.The higher employment multiplier,relative to the GDP multiplier

101、,is stimulated by the high productivity and spending power of the industrys employees,in turn supporting more jobs,on a relative basis,in other parts of the economy.Finally,we estimate that the total tax contribution of the EU tyre manufacturing industry was 12.2 billion in 2023.While 3.5 billion wa

102、s directly paid by the EU tyre manufacturing industry itself,the largest share,6.1 billion,was supported through the indirect channel,and a further 2.6 billion was supported through the induced channel.In 2023,this would have been equivalent to the wages of almost 295,000 professionals in the teachi

103、ng,health,and social care sectors.Fig.10:Total employment impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industry,2023Source:Oxford Economics,Eurostat,ETRMA membersJobs,headcount0DirectIndirectTotalInducedNote:Totals may not sum due to rounding112,000259,000128,000112,000259,000128,000498,000100,000200,000300,

104、000400,000500,000600,000S2223The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industry3.THE CORE ECONOMIC FOOTPRINT:HISTORIC TRENDSThe Covid-19 pandemic had a similarly negative impact on tyre production that it had for vehicles.In the EU,prod

105、uction of car tyres fell by 18%in 2020,while production of bus and truck tyres fell by 15%,compared to 23%for both cars and commercial vehicles.Similar to trends in vehicle production,the number of car tyres being produced was still 13%below pre-pandemic levels in 2022,while bus and truck tyre produ

106、ction had recovered to be 1%higher.1616 Data for 2023 not available.17 Unless otherwise stated,all monetary values in this section are measured in constant,2023 prices.In other words,the impact has been adjusted for inflation using the EU whole-economy GDP deflator.3.2 TRENDS IN THE CONTRIBUTION TO

107、GDPWe estimate that the total contribution to GDP of the EU tyre manufacturing industry increased 13%between 2014 and 2023,from 38.8 billion to 43.9 billion,in constant 2023 prices.17 The Covid-19 induced recession caused economic activity in tyre production to fall,although this had almost recovere

108、d by 2023,with the total contribution to GDP of the EU tyre manufacturing industry only 2%lower than its 2019 level.This shortfall was primarily driven by a 6%dip in the direct contribution to GDP.The direct GDP contribution is comprised of profits and employments costs,and while profits showed a sm

109、all increase over the period,employment costs decreased by 13%,reflecting an 18%fall inemployment.Over the last 10 years,tyre production has made an important contribution to the EU economy.However,the scale of its impact has been affected by conditions in the wider economy,notably the Covid-19 pand

110、emic,and increasing competition from imports from outside the EU.In this section,we present results for the EU tyre manufacturing industrys core economic footprint across three years2014,2019,and 2023.3.1 TRENDS IN VEHICLE AND TYRE PRODUCTIONDemand for tyres is driven by the production of new vehicl

111、es,as well as replacement tyres for existing vehicles.On the former,EU vehicle production saw steady growth rising 1.7%per year on average between 2014 and 2019(compared with 0.4%growth per year in global vehicle production over the same period),with production of commercial vehicles outpacing that

112、of personal vehicles(Fig.11).Similar to the production of cars,the production of car tyres also grew steadily between 2014 and 2019,albeit at a slower rate of 1.1%per year,on average(compared to 1.3%).Growth in the production of bus and truck tyres(1.5%per year on average between 2014 and 2019)lagge

113、d growth in the production of commercial vehicles(4.5%per year over the same period).This likely reflects the rise in imports outside of the EU,which rose almost 23%in absolute terms over the same period.The Covid-19 pandemic and the associated factory closures,supply chain constraints,and demand we

114、akness led to a sharp 23%drop in EU vehicle production in 2020(and a 16%drop in global vehicle production on the same basis).While EU car production continued to contract during the semiconductor shortage in 2021,global car production began to recover.In 2023,EU car production remained 15%below pre-

115、pandemic levels,while global car production was 2%higher.At the same time,production of commercial vehicles in the EU grew faster than the global rate from 2020 and had almost reached pre-pandemic levels by 2023.Fig.11:Global and EU vehicle production,20142023Fig.12:EU production of new and retreade

116、d tyres,20142022Fig.13:Total GDP impact,20142023Source:Oxford EconomicsIndex(2014=100)607080901001101201301402014201520162017201820192020202120222023EU carsGlobal carsEU commercial vehiclesGlobal commercial vehiclesSource:Eurostat,Oxford EconomicsIndex(2014=100)50706080901001101202014201520162017201

117、82019202020212022Car tyresBus and truck tyresSource:Oxford Economics,Eurostat,ETRMA members billion,2023 prices0201420192023Note:Totals may not sum due to rounding12.814.913.917.219.420.08.910.410.038.844.743.95101520253035404550DirectIndirectInduced2425The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturi

118、ng industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industry3.3 TRENDS IN THE EMPLOYMENT SUPPORTEDWe estimate the total employment supported by the EU tyre manufacturing industry dipped 6%between 2014 and 2023,from 528,000 workers to 498,000 workers.Over this 10-year period,each of the chann

119、els of impact saw a drop in the employment supported,albeit with some volatility in the trend in each of the three individual historic points analysed for this study.Or put differently,since growth in the total contribution to GDP(+13%between 2014 and 2023)outpaced that of the total employment suppo

120、rt(-6%over the same period),we can say that productivity across all channels of impact rose 20%over the past decade.This compares to an 5%rise in EU-wide productivity over the same period.Fig.14:Total employment impact,20142023Source:Oxford Economics,Eurostat,ETRMA membersJobs,headcount0201420192023

121、Note:Totals may not sum due to roundingDirectIndirectInduced116,000136,000112,000275,000249,000259,000138,000130,000128,000528,000515,000498,000100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000S2627The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing ind

122、ustry4.INTERNATIONAL TRADE ANALYSISThe EU plays an important role in the global trade of tyres.Consumers and businesses in the region will benefit as a result of the greater choice and lower prices that trade brings,while companies will have access to a larger market,increasing their revenues and th

123、e employment that they cansupport.4.1 TOTAL EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF TYRESIn 2023,new and retreaded car,bus,and truck tyre exports from the EU were valued at 7.4 billionequivalent to 12%of total EU exports in manufactured rubber and plastic products.This demonstrates the importance of international tr

124、ade for manufacturers in the region.It also allows for increased competition between tyre manufacturers,reducing price,while increasing quality and innovation.Imports of new and retreaded car,bus,and truck tyres into the EU were valued at 6.9 billion in 2023.This greater choice enables firms and con

125、sumers in the EU to purchase the tyres that best reflect their requirements,whether this is a winter,summer,or all-weather tyre.Imports and exports of tyres fell in 2020,due to the Covid-19 pandemic,which dampened the demand for tyres,and reduced the movement of goods and services across borders.In

126、2020,imports of new and retreaded car,bus,and truck tyres fell by 15.1%from the previous year,while exports dropped 14.6%.However,the pandemics impact was temporary,as both imports and exports began to recover in 2021 and had surpassed pre-pandemic levels by 2022.In 2023,the EU had a trade surplus i

127、n tyres,worth 0.4billion(Fig.15).This surplus had been seen in each year between 2014 and 2023 except 2022.This 2022 trade deficit may be linked to the temporary lifting of anti-dumping duties on imports of bus and truck tyres from China in May 2022,discussed in more detail in Section 4.2.As shown b

128、y Fig.16,the share of tyre imports into the EU that came from China increased to 29%in 2022,up from 26%in 2021.18 Official Journal of the European Union,“Commission implementing regulation(EU)2023/737”,accessed April 20244.2 BARRIERS TO TRADEIn 2018,the European Union introduced legislation imposing

129、 anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on imports of bus and truck tyres from China.18 These were removed in May 2022 while the European Commission re-opened its anti-dumping investigation but were then retroactively re-imposed in April 2023.The European Commission found that on average,Chinese bus a

130、nd truck tyre exporters were undercutting prices by 14.7%.They also found that the average price in the region decreased by 8%while costs of production decreased by 6%,having negative impacts on EU manufacturers.Imports of new bus and truck tyres into the EU increased by almost one-third in 2022 whe

131、n the anti-dumping duty was removed,while exports only increased by 7%(Fig.15).However,it is difficult to attribute this change to the duty only,as when it was first implemented,imports decreased by 2%,while exports increased by 1%.Fig.16:Imports of tyres into the EU,201423Fig.15:EU trade balance in

132、 car,bus,and truck tyres,201422Source:Oxford Economics billion,2023 prices2014201520162017201820192020202120220.30.60.60.50.020.30.30.30.50.4-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.8Source:Eurostat,Oxford Economics billion020142015201620172018201920232022202120202468101224%25%27%29%25%25%26%26%29%31%10%9%9%9%9%12

133、%12%12%14%13%8%7%8%9%10%10%10%10%10%11%8%7%7%8%9%9%9%10%10%10%5%5%7%6%6%6%7%7%3%9%8%8%7%7%7%7%5%6%6%36%38%34%32%32%30%29%30%28%29%ChinaASEANTurkeySouth KoreaRussia&UkraineJapanRest of the World2829The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturi

134、ng industry4.3 SUPPLY CHAIN IMPORTSInternational trade also allows firms in the EU to purchase inputs from suppliers outside of the common market,that they may not otherwise be able to access.By processing and using these inputs,businesses add value to them,creating goods and services to sell on to

135、firms and consumers in the EU and the Rest of the World.As discussed in Section 2.3,EU tyre manufacturers spent 4.2 billion or 15%of their total spend on inputs from outside of the EU in 2023.The largest share of this was just over 1.3 billion,spent on chemical products.This was closely followed by

136、spending of just under 1.3 billion in the agriculture sector on natural rubber,from countries including Cote dIvoire,Thailand,and Indonesia.Natural rubber is a vital input for tyre production and must be imported from outside of the EU.Fig.17:Value of EU trade in new bus and truck tyres,201423Fig.18

137、:Spend with Rest of the World suppliers by sector,2023Source:Eurostat,Oxford Economics billion,2023 prices20142015201620172018201920202021202220230.0-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.51.01.52.02.5Bus and truck tyre importsBus and truck tyre exportsTrade balanceSource:ETRMA members,Eurostat,Oxford EconomicsT

138、otal:4.2 billion1.8 bn2%32%31%12%11%7%5%Chemical productsAgricultureTextilesBusiness servicesBasic metalsMachinery&equipmentOtherS3031The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industry5.R&D IMPACTSThe industry also spends a significant

139、amount of money on investment in research and development(R&D).Where this is successful,the spending will boost the productive potential not just of the industry but of the EU economy as a whole.The growth in the productivity comes not only from the new products or processes developed from the EU ty

140、re manufacturers R&D spending but also through the stimulation of R&D activity by others in the economy,and through the dissemination of skills and knowledge across the wider economy.In this section,we consider the scale of the industrys R&D activity and quantify its long-run productivity benefits.1

141、9 The tyre manufacturers included in this analysis are Bridgestone,Pirelli,Yokohama,Continental,Goodyear,Nokian Tyres,Apollo Tyres,Nexen Tire,and Michelin20 ETRMA,“Tyre-as-a-Service Use Cases”,accessed September 202421 All values in this section are reported in 2023 prices.5.1 THE IMPORTANCE OF R&DR

142、&D is a critical component of EU tyre manufacturers operational expenditure.With environmental and sustainability concerns at the forefront of consumers minds,continuing to develop efficient,high-performing tyres is of paramount importance.The tyre manufacturers included in this analysis have a tota

143、l of 15 R&D centres across the EU.19Tyre innovations can take many forms.For example,“intelligent tyre sensors”are currently being developed to register abnormal temperatures,detect small punctures,and predict hazards.While tyre pressure monitoring systems(TPMS)are already mandatory in many countrie

144、s and warn drivers when to check their tyre pressure,these new smart sensors would go further,leading to reduced repair and maintenance costs for drivers and increased tyre sustainability.20 The gains from this R&D are not limited to the tyre manufacturing industry itself(direct impact).A wider set

145、of sectors benefit,both in the short term and the long term(the spillover impact).These benefits arise via several channels including sharing know-how with traders and dealers,customers benefitting from innovations,innovation information disseminated through publications,and staff turnover as worker

146、s move between jobs.Over the long term,these benefits combine to create new economic conditions in the EU.5.2 THE CONTRIBUTION OF TYRE MANUFACTURERS TO LONG-RUN PRODUCTIVITY IN THE EUUsing Oxford Economics in-house econometric models we have analysed how the R&D spending contributes to economic prod

147、uctivity in the sector undertaking R&D and the wider economy,after controlling for other factors such as the levels of investment and educational attainment in the economy.We used the model to investigate both the direct R&D impact of tyre manufacturers,and their R&D spillover effects.Between 2017 a

148、nd 2023,the nine tyre manufacturers included in this analysis spent an estimated 10.0 billion on R&D in the EU.21 This expenditure will enhance productivity in the EU,with increasingly significant gains accruing over time.Our modelling indicates that the productivity gains could result in a 4.6 bill

149、ion boost to EU GDP in 2035.22 Of this,2.9 billion(or 62%of the benefits)is expected to be directly realised by the tyre manufacturers themselves,with 1.7 billion(38%of the benefits)realised in the rest of the economy(the spillover impact).In other words,for every 1 million that EU tyre manufacturer

150、s spent on R&D between 2017 and 2023,the EU economys long-run productive capabilities are projected to increase by 0.5 million in 2035.22 Our modelling shows that R&D-stimulated productivity benefits start accruing almost immediately and grow over time,though at a decreasing rate.We expect the full

151、extent of the gains to be realised by 2035,leading to a lasting boost to EU GDP beyond 2035.Fig.19:The long-run productivity impact of R&D investment by EU tyre manufacturers in 2035Source:ETRMA members,Oxford Economics billion0.0DirectSpilloverTotal0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.02.9 1.7 2.9 1.7 4.6

152、3233The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryS3435The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industry6.FURTHER IMPACTS OF EU TYRE MANUFACTURINGIn addition to the qu

153、antitative impacts assessed in the previous sections,we also qualitatively assess some of the additional impacts of the industry further down the value-chain,through for instance tyre retailers,replacement tyre-fitters,and the circular economy activity of tyres.23 Halfords,“How long do car tyres las

154、t?”,accessed September 2024.In Automotive,“How often should you replace your trucks tyres”,accessed September 202424 One exception to this is that the impact of tyre retreading by EU manufacturers is already captured in the core analysis,although we cannot identify this element separately.6.1 DOWNST

155、REAM ECONOMIC IMPACTS ENABLED BY EU-PRODUCED TYRESThe production of tyres enables additional impacts further down the value chain to be realised,including the considerable economic benefits generated by the vehicle manufacturing industry.Mobility is only made possible by the use of tyres,as a vital

156、part of a vehicles infrastructure.New vehicles for sale require original equipment from the tyre manufacturing industry,and in 2023,EU car manufacturers produced over 12.4 million cars,requiring almost 50 million tyres.Tyre retailers and replacement tyre-fitters are also vital for the maintenance of

157、 vehicles,creating additional downstream work.Typical car and truck tyres need to be replaced every five to six years.23 Many of these will be fitted by specialist garages,supporting skilled employment in that sector,as well as work in the wholesale and retail distribution sector.In addition,activit

158、y relating to the re-use,retreading,and recycling of tyres supports yet more income and employment,as well as benefitting the environment.This so-called“circular economy”activity is investigated in the box below.Unfortunately,a lack of available data means that we cannot robustly quantify the econom

159、ic impact of these downstream activities.24 The total core economic impact of tyre manufacturing assessed in Section 2.5 will therefore understate the economic benefit of all tyre-related activity taking place across the EU.6.2 THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY FOR TYRES25 Svetlana Dabic-Miletic,et al,“End-of-li

160、fe tire management:a critical review”,Environmental Science and Pollution Research(2021),pp.68053-68070,accessed April 2024.26 EY for the ETRMA,“The socio-economic impact of truck tyre retreading in Europe”,2016,accessed May 2024.27 Continental,“All you need to know about commercial vehicle tyres”,2

161、021,accessed May 2024.The European tyre manufacturing industry is committed to environmental sustainability and has found innovative ways to create a circular economy for tyres.Retreadingor replacing a tyres worn tread with a new oneis a safe and reliable process used to extend the life of a tyre.It

162、 is mostly used for large commercial vehicles such as buses and trucks,rather than cars which require tyre replacements less frequently.As retreading uses fewer materials than the production of new tyres,it provides a more sustainable alternative to purchasing a brand-new replacement.However,when re

163、treading is not possible,an end-of-life tyre(ELT)can be repurposed for other activities in fields such as construction and engineering.Since 1999,it has been illegal to send ELTs to landfill in the EU,and academics argue that this new law was a key driver for improving ELT management.25 These two se

164、ts of activityretreading and repurposing of tyresare examined in turnbelow.Tyre retreading has numerous environmental benefits.Compared to a new tyre,production of a retreaded tyre can reduce the use of new materials by up to 70%.26 It can also require 50%less energy,80%less water,and up to 70%less

165、crude oilassociated with the generation of 30%less CO2.27 Over the last 10 years,EU-produced retreaded tyres have faced tough competition from cheaper,non-retreaded alternatives from China.While they are more sustainable and can save users money in the long-run,EU-produced retreaded tyres have a hig

166、her upfront cost than cheaper non-treaded imports.However,in 2018,the EU implemented anti-dumping measures on bus and truck tyre imports from China(see Section 4),since when a trend decline in the share of retreaded tyres in all EU tyre production has been at least partially reversed.Fig.20:Producti

167、on of new and retreaded bus and truck tyres in the EU,201423Source:Eurostat,Oxford Economics billion,2023 prices020142015201620172018201920232022202120205.55 0.71 0.65 11.3%11.1%10.6%8.5%8.1%8.1%9.0%15.0%8.3%10.5%1 2345678New bus or truck tyresRetreaded bus or truck tyresShare of retreaded bus and t

168、ruck tyres5.20 5.27 5.52 5.71 5.69 4.64 5.36 6.44 4.80 0.62 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.46 0.95 0.58 0.56 3637The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryIn 2021,96%or more than 2.5 million tonnesof ELTs in the EU were collected and treated

169、for material recycling and recovery(Fig.19).28 Over halfor 1.4 million tonnesof all ELTs in the EU were recycled.This included ELTs sent to material recovery used in several other industries,such as construction and automotive.A further 1.0 million tonnes were used for energy recovery,and 72,000 ton

170、nes were used for civil engineering,public works,and backfilling.The remaining 96,000 tonnes were of unknown status or stocked and waiting for treatment.28 Latest year for which data are available.Total does not match the chart due to rounding.29 Success story:milestone in rubber raw material defini

171、tion tyre deconstruction technology.BlackCycle,May 2023,accessed April 202430 BlackCycle won the 2023 Recircle Awards BlackCycle,November 2023,accessed April 2024 31 LIFE project aims to revolutionise Europes approach to recycling end-of-life tyres,European Commission,December 2023,accessed April 20

172、24There are a range of innovative projects underway in the EU,looking to further increase the efficiency of ELT processing and produce raw materials that can be reused in the tyre manufacturing industry.Since 2020,the BlackCycle project has been working to develop deconstruction process technologies

173、 that can recover specific types of rubber from tyres.29 It has made positive progress and was recognised with the Best Tyre Recycling Research Project award at the 2023 Recircle Awards.30 Another example is the Life Green Vulcan project in Italy,which has been working on its de-vulcanisation proces

174、s,to extract raw materials from ELTs,which could potentially replace almost all of the virgin rubber required for a tyre.31Fig.21:End-of-life tyres treatment in the EU,2021Source:ETRMA1.039%0.14%0.13%1.454%Civil engineering,publicworks&backfillingRecyclingEnergy recoveryUnknown/stocksNote:figures ma

175、y not sum due to roundingTonnes(millions)S3839The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryAPPENDIX:METHODOLOGY CORE ECONOMIC IMPACTThe Global Sustainability ModelOur approach for assessing the tyre manufacturing industrys economic

176、 footprint across the EU for 2014,2019,and 2023 is based on the Oxford Economics Global Sustainability Model(GSM).These three years have been chosen to allow for an assessment of the industry over the past decade,including the period prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.The GSM leverages the knowledge and

177、 techniques we have developed in mapping economic relationships between countries and industries across the world.The model includes information about global supply chains that are typically excluded from standard economic impact assessments,enabling comprehensive measurement of economic footprints.

178、The ability to trace how global supply chains stimulate activity in different economies is essential for developing a comprehensive measure of the tyre manufacturing industry across the region.For example,it enables us to trace how the spending tyre manufacturers in one EU country make with supplier

179、s in the rest of the EU can stimulate supply chains that pass in and out of the EU further up the value chain.Consequently,the GSM provides a comprehensive measure of the tyre manufacturing industrys total impact on the EU as a whole.We assess the economic contribution of tyre manufacturing industry

180、 across the following three channels:1.its direct impact:the GDP generated by the tyre manufacturing industrys operations(the sum of wage payments and profits),along with its employment and direct tax payments;2.its indirect impact:encompassing the production and employment supported across the tyre

181、 manufacturing industrys supply chain;and3.its induced impact:the wage-consumption multiplier effect that is supported by the wages paid by the tyre manufacturing industry and the wages paid in its supply chain.Inputs to the Global Sustainability ModelDirect impactsEurostat data for the“Manufacture

182、of rubber tyres and tubes;retreading and rebuilding of rubber tyres”sector were used as the basis for estimating the tyre manufacturing industrys direct impact.Direct GDP was available for most countries for 2014,2019,and 2021.Data for 2023 were estimated for each EU-27 country using a combination o

183、f Eurostat data on turnover and production growth for the rubber and plastic products sector(or,for a select few countries the manufacture of rubber tyre and tubes sector were available),and GVA-to-output ratios from Oxford Economics in-house models.Where data for a specific country and year were mi

184、ssing,estimates were calculated using the same methodology as for 2023 inputs,based on the closest year available.A similar approach was used for direct employment.Employment data for most countries were available for 2014 and 2019.Data for 2023 were estimated using the production growth rate for th

185、e rubber and plastic products sector(or the manufacture of rubber tyre and tubes sector).Gaps in earlier years were estimated using production growth rates and the closest year available.Total wage payments for the sector were taken from Eurostat for each EU-27 country for 2014,2019,and 2021.To calc

186、ulate 2023 wages,wage per employee for 2021 were grown in line with Oxford Economics data on wage growth for each country and multiplied by the employment estimates,to arrive at the total wage spending of the sector.Procurement for the sector was estimated by taking purchases of goods and services,a

187、nd capital expenditure figures for each EU-27 country from Eurostat for 2014,2019,and 2021.Estimates for 2023,and gaps in purchases of goods and services were filled in by Output GVA.For capital purchases estimates for 2023 and gaps were filled in based on growth in output of the sector.Finally,tax

188、was estimated by applying ratios from Oxford Economics in-house models to wage,GVA,and procurement estimates calculate labour taxes,taxes on production,taxes on products,and corporation tax.Indirect and induced impactsThe procurement estimates were used as the starting point for the indirect impacts

189、.These were broken down by sector based on a survey of the spending patterns of eight ETRMA members.Spending by sector was then allocated to countries using OECD input-output tables.This was input in the GSM to calculate the supply chain impacts.The wage estimates by country were also input into the

190、 GSM,and these were used to calculate the wage-induced impacts.32 Harald Badinger and Peter Egger.Intra-and inter-industry productivity spillovers in OECD manufacturing:A spatial econometric perspective.No.2181.CESifo working paper,2008.33 David T Coe,Elhanan Helpman,and Alexander W.Hoffmaister.Inte

191、rnational R&D Spillovers and Institutions.IMF Working Paper.WP/08/104.R&D ANALYSISWe used Oxford Economics in-house econometric model to explain how R&D expenditure in the tyre manufacturing industry contributes to productivity growth.The boost to productivity identified by the model comes from both

192、 new innovations and from enhancing the skills of the labour force.The model includes two channels of benefits supported by this investment:1.those which accrue directly to the tyre manufacturing sector undertaking the research;and 2.the spillover benefits generated as firms in other sectors of the

193、economy apply the knowledge and innovations to help to develop new products and improve operational efficiency.Data inputsData on R&D spend were provided by six ETRMA members;Apollo Tyres,Nexen Tire,Michelin,Continental,Goodyear,and Yokohama.Both Bridgestone and Nokian Tyres provided data on their f

194、inancials,and we calculated estimates of their R&D spend using this,as well as data from their annual reports.R&D spend by Pirelli was estimated based on data from its annual reports.Overall modelling approachThe modelling approach was adopted from Badinger and Egger(2008)who adopted a spatial econo

195、metric approach to estimate intra-industry and inter-industry productivity spillovers in TFP(total factor productivity)transmitted through input-output relations in a sample of 13 OECD countries and 15 manufacturing industries.32 Our methodology follows a similar approach with a larger dataset with

196、more countries and more recent data.To account for the spatial element,a spillover matrix is constructed using the latest Social Accounting Matrices for each country from the OECD,broadly following the approach in Coe et al(2019).334041The economic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryThe eco

197、nomic impact of the EU tyre manufacturing industryOXFORD ECONOMICSOxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford Universitys business college to provide economic forecasting and modelling toUK companies and financial institutions expanding abroad.Since then,we have become o

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202、ur worldwide client base now comprises over 2,500 international organisations,including leading multinational companies and financial institutions;key government bodies and trade associations;and top universities,consultancies,and think tanks.November 2024All data shown in tables and charts are Oxfo

203、rd Economics own data,except where otherwise stated and cited in footnotes,and are copyright Oxford Economics Ltd.This report is confidential to the ETRMA and may not be published or distributed without their prior written permission.The modelling and results presented here are based on information

204、provided by third parties,upon which Oxford Economics has relied in producing its report and forecasts in good faith.Any subsequent revision or update of those data will affect the assessments and projections shown.To discuss the report further please contact:Rosie Nolan Stephen Foreman Oxford Econo

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