1、A REPORT FOR EMIRATES AND DUBAI AIRPORTSOCTOBER 2024THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF AVIATION IN DUBAI3The economic impact of aviation in DubaiTABLE OF CONTENTSOCTOBER 2024Executive summary 41.Introduction 81.1 Study scope 82.The total economic impact of the Dubai aviation sector 103.The core economic impact

2、of the Dubai aviation sector 123.1 Measuring the core economic impact of Dubais aviation sector 123.2 Dubai aviation sectors core impact 133.2.1 Dubai aviation sectors direct impact 153.2.2 Dubai aviation sectors indirect impact 163.2.3 Dubai aviation sectors induced impact 174.The catalytic impact

3、of aviation-facilitated tourism in Dubai 204.1 Dubais aviation-facilitated tourism impact 215.The economic impact of aviation sector entities 245.1 Emirates economic impact 245.2 Dubai Airports and other aviation sector entities economic impact 26Glossary 28Appendix 304The economic impact of aviatio

4、n in DubaiDubai is a major global hub for air travel,with its airports serving more than 88 million passengers and the city welcoming 17 million international visitors in 2023.1 As a global transport and tourism hub,Dubais aviation sector plays an integral role in the emirates economy.This report qu

5、antifies the economic contributions of Dubais aviation sectorcomprising the Emirates Group,Dubai Airports,and other aviation sector entities.This comprehensive study includes an assessment of direct economic activity generated by businesses in the aviation sector,indirect activity stimulated across

6、the sectors supply chain,and induced activity supported through wage-funded consumption by employees.The study also assesses the catalytic impact of the estimated AED 66 billion of tourism spending in 2023 that the aviation sector facilitated in Dubai.In 2023,Dubais aviation sector is estimated to h

7、ave supported AED 137 billion in gross value added,equivalent to 27%of Dubais GDP.This comprised a core economic impact of AED 94 billion,and a catalytic impact of aviation-facilitated tourism of AED 43 billion.The core impact of Dubais aviation sector comprised a direct gross value added contributi

8、on of AED 70 billion,and a further AED 24 billion stimulated through the sectors supply chain spending and wage-funded consumption by employees.This highlights that the Dubai aviation sector has a GVA multiplier of 1.35that is,for every AED 100 gross value added generated by the sector itself,a furt

9、her AED 35 is stimulated in the wider UAE economy.1 Airport passenger data provided by Dubai Airports.International visitor data from Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism(link).EXECUTIVE SUMMARYAED 137 bnGross value added supported in Dubai in 2023Dubai aviation sectors total economic impact in D

10、ubai in 202327%Share of Dubais GDP in 20235The economic impact of aviation in DubaiIn 2023,the sector also supported 631,000 jobs across Dubai,equivalent to one in five jobs in the emirate.2 This comprised 303,000 jobs supported through the sectors core economic impact,and a further 329,000 jobs thr

11、ough the catalytic impact of aviation-facilitated tourism.The core impact of Dubais aviation sector comprised 103,000 jobs directly in the sector,and a further 200,000 jobs supported by the sectors supply chain spending and wage-funded consumption by employees.This means that the Dubai aviation sect

12、or has an employment multiplier of 2.9that is,for every 100 jobs held in the aviation sector,a further 190 jobs are supported across Dubais economy.Finally,taking into account projected financial and passenger growth for the sector,this study forecasts that Dubais aviation sector will contribute AED

13、 196 billion in gross value added in 2030,or 32%of Dubais forecast GDP,with the sectors employment impact rising to 816,000 jobs in 2030equivalent to one in four jobs in Dubai.Within this forecast,the Dubai aviation sectors core economic impact is expected to grow to AED 132 billion in gross value a

14、dded in 2030,while the catalytic impact of aviation-facilitated tourism is expected to grow to AED 63 billion.32 Note:totals may not sum due to rounding.3 Note:all monetary values are expressed in 2023 prices.631,000Jobs supported in Dubai in 2023ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DUBAIS AVIATION SECTORTOTAL AVIATI

15、ON SECTOR IMPACT IN 2023in gross value added,27%of Dubais GDP15%of Dubais GDPOne in every 14 jobs in Dubaione in every five jobs in DubaiCore impact plus catalytic impact of aviation-facilitated tourism:CORE IMPACT IN 2023CATALYTIC IMPACT OF AVIATION-FACILITATED TOURISM IN 2023DirectIndirectInducedA

16、ED 56bnAED 14bnAED 5.0bn81,000106,00048,000236,000Total jobs supportedAED 75bnTotal GVA supportedAED 66bnEst.international visitor spendAED 43bn GVA generated by tourism spend,8.5%of Dubais GDP329,000jobsJobs supported by tourism spend in DubaiAED 137 bn631,000 jobsForecast to grow by 2030 toAED 196

17、 bn816,000 jobs32%of Dubais forecast GDPone in four jobs in Dubai3.7%of Dubais GDPOne in every 48 jobs in DubaiAED 14bnAED 3.5bnAED 1.4bn21,00033,00013,00067,000Total jobs supportedAED 19bnTotal GVA supportedEmirates core impact in 2023Dubai Airports and other aviation entities core impact in 2023Of

18、 this,more than half of GVA(AED 23bn)and employment(177,000)was generated by those flying to Dubai with EmiratesNote:Totals may not sum due to rounding.All monetary values are expressed in 2023 prices.8The economic impact of aviation in Dubai1.INTRODUCTIONAviation plays a central role in the economy

19、 of Dubai.Over the years,strategic investment has established Dubai as a global air transportation hub.This transformation is underpinned by the rise of Emirates as the worlds largest international airline and Dubai International Airport as the most connected airport in the Asia-Pacific and Middle E

20、ast region.4 By connecting Dubai to the global economy,the sector facilitates international trade and investment,promotes 4 Emirates Media Center,2024(link).Airports Council International 2023(link).5 Operations data provided by Emirates.6 Airport rankings based on Airports Council International,202

21、4(link).Aircraft handled data provided by Dubai Airports.international tourism,and enables greater access to education,knowledge,and skills from around the worldall of which contribute to Dubais economic output and employment.Oxford Economics was commissioned jointly by the Emirates Group and Dubai

22、Airports,to estimate the economic impact of the aviation sector in Dubai.The objective of this study is to investigate the economic benefits that the aviation sector contributed to the Dubai economy in 2023,and the projected impacts in 2030.The study quantifies the core economic impact of the aviati

23、on sector through assessing the impact of its direct operations,its supply chain spending,and wage-funded consumption by its employees.In addition,the study estimates the benefits the sector generates through facilitating international tourism in Dubaireferred to as the catalytic impact of aviation-

24、facilitated tourism.1.1 STUDY SCOPEThe aviation sector is a complex group of organisations undertaking a wide range of activities,spanning from operating airports and airlines,engineering and maintenance,duty-free and other airport concessions,to security on the ground and in the air(in the form of

25、air traffic control).Consequently,any study of the sector must clearly define the breadth of the sector.Figure 1 illustrates the entities included in this studys definition of Dubais aviation sector.Theseinclude:The Emirates Group(hereafter referred to as Emirates):a Dubai-based international aviati

26、on company comprising both Emirates Airlinethe worlds largest international airline,with a network covering 79 countries(as of March 2024),serving 52 million passengers in 2023;and dnataan aviation services company which provides ground handling,cargo,catering,and travel services across 178 cities i

27、n 36 countries(as of March 2024);5 Dubai Airports:the authority that owns and manages both Dubai International Airportthe worlds busiest airport for international passengersand Al Maktoum International Airport,which together handled 452,000 aircraft in 2023;6 and Other aviation sector entities:in ad

28、dition to Emirates and Dubai Airports,this study also quantifies the contributions of other aviation sector entities,including other airlines based in Dubai,Dubai Duty Free,Dubai Aviation Engineering Projects,and public bodies such as airport police,customs authorities,and the civil aviation authori

29、ty.A full list of entities included in the study is provided in the Appendix.9The economic impact of aviation in DubaiThe remainder of this report will be structured as follows:Chapter 2 presents the total economic impact of the Dubai aviation sector;Chapter 3 presents the core economic impact resul

30、ts for the Dubai aviation sector;Chapter 4 presents the catalytic impact of aviation-facilitated tourism spending in Dubai;Chapter 5 presents the results for entities within the aviation sector;and The Glossary provides definitions of terms and the Appendix details the methodologies used in thisrepo

31、rt.THE DUBAI AVIATION SECTORDubai AirportsThe Emirates GroupPublic bodiesFig 1:The definition of the aviation sector used in this reportDubai Duty FreeOther Dubai airlinesOther aviation sector entitiesEmirates AirlinednataDubai International AirportAl Maktoum International Airport10The economic impa

32、ct of aviation in Dubai2.THE TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE DUBAI AVIATION SECTORThe total impact that the aviation sector supports in the Dubai economy consists of its core impact,and the catalytic impact of aviation-facilitated tourism.The Dubai aviation sectors core impact reflects economic activit

33、y supported by Emirates,Dubai Airports,and other aviation entities.7 Its core economic impact encompasses the sectors direct operations,economic activity stimulated through the sectors supply chain spending,and wage-funded consumption by employees.The aviation sectors 7 See appendix for a full list

34、of entities included in the study.core impact contributed AED 94 billion in gross value added,or 18%of Dubais GDP in 2023.This activity supported 303,000 jobs,or one in 11 jobs across the emirate.In addition,the Dubai aviation sector also stimulated economic activity across Dubai through facilitatin

35、g tourism.The catalytic impact of aviation-facilitated tourism spending contributed AED 43 billion in gross value added,or 8.5%of Dubai GDP in 2023.This economic activity supported 329,000 jobs,or one in 10 jobs in Dubai.Combined,the total economic impact of Dubais aviation sector is estimated to ha

36、ve supported AED 137 billion in gross value added,equivalent to 27%of Dubais GDP.This activity also supported 631,000 jobs across Dubai,equivalent to one-fifth of Dubais total employment.The sector is also estimated to have contributed AED 3.2 billion to government tax revenues in 2023.Fig.2:Total e

37、conomic impact of the Dubai aviation sector2023GVA (AED bn)GVA (%Dubai GDP)Employment (,000s)Employment(%Dubai workforce)Direct70141033.2Indirect183.51394.3Induced6.41.2611.9Core impact94183039.3Aviation facilitated tourism438.532910Total impact13727631192030 forecastGVA (AED bn)GVA (%Dubai GDP)Empl

38、oyment (,000s)Employment(%Dubai workforce)Direct98161273.5Indirect264.21835.1Induced8.91.5762.1Core impact1322238611Aviation facilitated tourism631042912Total impact1963281623Note:totals may not sum due to rounding.Gross value added forecasts are presented in 2023 prices.11The economic impact of avi

39、ation in DubaiBased on industry financial and passenger projections,the Dubai aviation sectors GDP contribution is forecast to grow to AED 196 billion in 2030,or 32%of Dubais forecast GDP in 2030.Furthermore,the Dubai aviation sectors employment impact is forecast to grow to 816,000 jobs in 2030,or

40、one-quarter of all jobs in Dubai.The sector is also forecast to raise AED 4.3 billion in government tax revenues in 2030.The core impact of Dubais aviation sector is expected to grow to AED 132 billion in gross value added in 2030(22%of GDP),supporting 386,000 jobs.Additionally,the catalytic impact

41、of aviation-facilitated tourism is expected to grow to AED 63 billion in 2030(10%of Dubais GDP),supporting 429,000 jobs.88 Gross value added forecasts expressed in 2023 prices.COMPARISON TO THE 2013 STUDYThis study updates the results of a previous study conducted by Oxford Economics assessing the e

42、conomic impact of the aviation sector in Dubai in 2013.That study found that the overall impact of the aviation sector contributed 27%of Dubais GDP in 2013 and supported 417,000 jobs across the emirate.This studys results estimate that the aviation sector contributed 27%to Dubais GDP in 2023 and sup

43、ported 631,000 jobs.While the results suggest the sectors share of Dubais GDP has been relatively stable,the sectors gross value added has increased in real terms,with the stable share reflecting faster growth in the wider economy over the past decade.Note that,while this studys results indicate a g

44、rowing but stable contribution of the sector to Dubais economy,the studys methods have changed since 2013,reflecting improved data availability and ongoing methodological developments.As such,caution is advised when comparing underlying components of the sector with 2013.More details on the methodol

45、ogy and data sources are available in the annex.Fig.3:Total economic impact of the Dubai aviation sector in 2023 and 2030AED billionsNumber of jobsSource:Oxford EconomicsGVA(left axis)Employment(right axis)00Note:totals may not sum due to rounding941324363137196303,000386,000329,000429,000631,000816

46、,000100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,00020232030 Forecast20232030 Forecast50100150200250Core ImpactTourism Impact12The economic impact of aviation in Dubai3.THE CORE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE DUBAI AVIATION SECTOR3.1 MEASURING THE CORE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DUBAIS AVIATION SECTO

47、ROxford Economics used a standard economic impact framework to assess the aviation sectors economic impact in Dubai.This core impact of the Dubai aviation sector comprises three channels:Direct impact:economic activity generated by the sectors operations;Indirect impact:encompassing the impact the s

48、ector stimulates through its supply chain spending;and Induced impact:capturing the impact the sector and its suppliers generate through paying wages to staff,who in turn spend these in the consumer economy.The sectors contribution to the economy is expressed in terms of gross domestic product(GDP).

49、GDP is an integral part of national accounts statistics that measures the value of goods and services produced in an economy.Businesses contribute to GDP by producing gross value added(GVA),which is created through the production of goods and services within the economy.A businesss GVA can be calcul

50、ated by summing its gross profits(or losses)and employee compensation.This is equivalent to the“value add”generated by the business,which is equal to the value of goods and services that it has produced Fig.4:Core economic impact frameworkEmployees(including of the suppliers)spend their wages in the

51、 wider economy,generating more GDP,jobs and tax revenues.Added together,these three efectsdirect,indirect,inducedcomprise the core economic impact of the company or sector.It also spends money with suppliers who employ staf,generate GDP and pay taxes.They use other suppliers in turn.A company employ

52、s staf and generates GDP and tax for the authorities.DIRECTIMPACTINDIRECTIMPACTCOREIMPACTINDUCEDIMPACT13The economic impact of aviation in Dubai(output or revenue),less the cost of all inputs and raw materials that are directly attributable to production(intermediate inputs).When summed across all f

53、irms in the economy,and after small adjustments for taxes and subsidies,GVA is equal to GDP.In order to create GVA,businesses employ staff.In this report,employment figures are presented on a headcount basis,allowing for comparability to national statistics.This economic activity and employment gene

54、rate tax payments for the government.The taxes which are modelled in the indirect and induced channels are corporation tax,value added taxes,customs duties,aeronautical charges transferred directly to government,and social security payments for Emirati employees.3.2 DUBAI AVIATION SECTORS CORE IMPAC

55、T The Dubai aviation sectors core impact reflects economic activity supported by Emirates,Dubai Airports,and other aviation entities.The core economic impact encompasses these entities direct operations,activity stimulated through their supply chain spending,and further activity supported through wa

56、ge-funded consumption by employees.The sum of the three channels of impactdirect,indirect,and inducedrepresents the core economic impact that the Dubai aviation sector supported across the Dubai economy in 2023.We estimate that the sector supported:AED 94 billion in gross value added,equivalent to 1

57、8%of Dubais GDP in the same year;303,000 jobs across the Dubai economy,equivalent to one in every 11 jobs in the emirate.AED 2.1 billion in tax payments for the government.Of the sectors core employment impact,103,000(34%)were employed by firms within the aviation sector.Some 139,000 jobs(46%)were s

58、upported by the sectors spending with suppliers,with the remaining 61,000 jobs(20%)being sustained by the spending of wages by workers in the aviation sector and its supply chain.Fig.5:The core impact of the aviation sector in Dubai in 2023AED billionsNumber of jobsSource:Oxford EconomicsGVA(left ax

59、is)Employment(right axis)00Note:totals may not sum due to roundingDirectIndirectInduced60,000180,000300,000360,000120,000240,00020406080100120303,000946.4187061,000139,000103,00014The economic impact of aviation in DubaiBased on industry projections,the Dubai aviation sectors core gross value added

60、impact is forecast to grow to AED 132 billion in 20309,or 22%of 9 In 2023 prices.10 Emirates,2023(link).The Al Maktoum Airport expansion announced in April 2024(link)is not included in the impact forecast.The DWC expansion would contribute an estimated AED 6.1 billion in gross value added to the eco

61、nomy in 2030,equivalent to 1.0%of Dubais forecasted GDP;and generate 132,000 jobs,equivalent to 3.7%of Dubais employment in that year.See appendix for details for the assumptions and methodology used in this estimate.Dubais GDP.This economic activity is forecast to support 386,000 jobs in 2030.This

62、growth reflects ongoing major investment by the sector to expand its capacity,including Emirates announcement in November 2023 of a further expansion in its Boeing and Airbus fleet.10Fig.6:Core economic impact of the aviation sector2023Gross value added,AED billions,2023DirectIndirectInducedCore con

63、tributionEmirates56145.075Dubai Airports and other aviation sector entities143.51.419Total sector70186.494Employment,thousands,2023DirectIndirectInducedCore contributionEmirates8110648236Dubai Airports and other aviation sector entities21331367Total sector103139613032030 forecastGross value added,AE

64、D billions,2030DirectIndirectInducedCore contributionEmirates79217.1107Dubai Airports and other aviation sector entities195.01.826Total sector98268.9132Employment,thousands,2030DirectIndirectInducedCore contributionEmirates10413561300Dubai Airports and other aviation sector entities23481587Total sec

65、tor12718376386Notes:Totals may not sum due to rounding.Purchases between aviation entities are excluded to avoid double counting.All monetary values presented in 2023 prices.The economic impact of aviation in Dubai153.2.1 Direct impact 11 In 2023 prices.Through its operations,the aviation sector mak

66、es substantial direct contributions to Dubais economy in terms of GDP,employment,and tax payments.In 2023,the aviation sectors direct operations are estimated to have:Generated AED 70 billion in gross value added,equivalent to 14%of Dubais GDP;and Employed 103,000 staff in Dubai,which was equivalent

67、 to one in every 32 jobs in the emirate.The Dubai aviation sectors direct GDP impact is forecast to rise to AED 98 billion in 203011,equivalent to 16%of Dubais forecast GDP in that year.As discussed previously,this growth reflects ongoing major investment by the sector to expand its capacity and ope

68、rations.Furthermore,the sectors number of direct employees is forecast to grow to 127,000 by 2030,or one in 28 jobs in Dubai.Fig.7:The direct impact of the aviation sector in Dubai in 2023AED billionsNumber of jobsSource:Oxford Economics,Emirates,Dubai AirportsGVA(left axis)Employment(right axis)00N

69、ote:totals may not sum due to roundingEmiratesDubai Airports and other entities45,00075,000105,000150,00060,00090,0002050708090100103,0004060103015,00030,000135,000120,000701421,00081,0005616The economic impact of aviation in Dubai3.2.2 Indirect impact 12 Third-party suppliers.Excludes intra-industr

70、y transactions between aviation entities included in the study.13 In 2023 prices.In 2023,Dubais aviation sector spent over AED 36 billion with Dubai-based suppliers on goods and services to support its day-to-day operations and capital investments.12 This included energy groups such as the Emirates

71、National Oil Company(ENOC),utilities companies such as Dubai Electricity and Water Authority(DEWA),and aviation services companies such as Dubai Aerospace Enterprise(DAE).This spending stimulated economic activity throughout Dubais economy,as the sectors suppliers purchase from their own suppliers a

72、nd so on.As this spending ripples through supply chains,the economic footprint reaches all parts of the Dubai economy.The main industries benefitting were Dubais manufacturing and professional services sectors.Across the economy in 2023,the Dubai aviation sectors supply chain spending is estimated t

73、o have indirectly supported:AED 18 billion in gross value added,equivalent to 3.5%of Dubais GDP;and 139,000 jobs,equivalent to one in 23 jobs.The Dubai aviation sectors indirect GDP contribution is forecast to rise to AED 26 billion in 203013,equivalent to 4.2%of Dubais forecast GDP.This reflects th

74、e sectors increased demand for goods and services to support its expanding operations and capital investments.The employment supported through the aviation sectors supply chain spending is forecast to grow to 183,000 jobs by 2030,or one in 20 jobs in Dubai.Fig.8.Indirect impact supported by the avia

75、tion sector in Dubai in 2023Note:Purchases between aviation entities are excluded to avoid double counting.AED billionsNumber of jobsSource:Oxford EconomicsGVA(left axis)Employment(right axis)0Note:totals may not sum due to roundingEmiratesDubai Airports and other entities80,000140,000160,000100,000

76、180,000218201410620,00060,000120,000139,0000161284200,00040,0001833,000106,0003.51417The economic impact of aviation in Dubai3.2.3 Induced impact 14 In 2023 prices.By paying wages to its employeesand supporting employment in its supply chainsthe Dubai aviation sector stimulates further economic acti

77、vity across the consumer economy through wage-funded consumption.The aviation sector paid its 103,000 Dubai-based employees an estimated AED 23 billion in wages and salaries in 2023.These wages and salariesalong with payments to employees working in the sectors supply chainsare estimated to have sti

78、mulated:AED 6.4 billion in gross value added,equivalent to 1.2%of Dubais GDP;and 61,000 jobs across the Dubai economy,equivalent to one in every 53 jobs in Dubai.The Dubai aviation sectors induced GDP contribution is forecast to rise to AED 8.9 billion in 203014,equivalent to 1.5%of Dubais forecast

79、GDP.This increase reflects increased employment within the sector and in its Dubai-based supply chains.The employment supported in Dubai by wage-funded consumption by employees working in the aviation sector and its supply chains is forecast to grow to 76,000 jobs by 2030,or one in every 47 jobs acr

80、oss the emirate.Fig.9:Induced impact supported by the aviation sector in Dubai in 2023AED billionsNumber of jobsSource:Oxford EconomicsGVA(left axis)Employment(right axis)00Note:totals may not sum due to roundingEmiratesDubai Airports and other entities30,00060,00070,00040,00080,0002378651410,00020,

81、00050,0006.461,00013,00048,0001.45.0Note:Purchases between aviation entities are excluded to avoid double counting.18The economic impact of aviation in Dubai19The economic impact of aviation in Dubai20The economic impact of aviation in Dubai4.THE CATALYTIC IMPACT OF AVIATION-FACILITATED TOURISM IN D

82、UBAIThe impact of the aviation sector extends far beyond its direct and wider core activities.In bringing visitors into the country from all over the world,it facilitates a growing tourism sector in the emirate.This chapter assesses the catalytic aviation-facilitated tourism impact that the sector f

83、acilitates through international tourists travelling to Dubai by air.International visitor spending generates economic activity in Dubais tourism industries and their supply chains.The associated profits,wages,and jobs generated by this activity represent the gross value added and employment contrib

84、utions of aviation-facilitated tourism.Aviation-facilitated tourism stimulates further economic activity as the tourism industries purchase goods and services from their Dubai-based suppliers.Meanwhile wage-funded consumption by the tourism industries employees and those working in their supply chai

85、ns stimulates economic activity in the consumer economy.These three channels describe the economic impact framework used to estimate the catalytic impact of aviation-facilitated tourism in Dubai.Fig.10:Economic impact framework for aviation-facilitated tourismDIRECTIMPACTINDIRECT SUPPLY CHAIN IMPACT

86、INDUCED WAGE CONSUMPTION IMPACTCATALYTICIMPACTVisitor spending supports activity in tourism businesses.These firms employ staf and generate GDP.These firms spend money with suppliers who employ staf and generate GDP.They use other suppliers in turn.Employees(including of the suppliers)spend their wa

87、ges in the wider economy,generating more GDP and jobs.Added together,these three efectsdirect,indirect,inducedcomprise the total economic impact of aviation-facilitated tourism.21The economic impact of aviation in Dubai4.1 DUBAIS AVIATION-FACILITATED TOURISM IMPACT15 Dubai Tourism 2023(link)and Tour

88、ism Economics 2023(link).16 Number of visitors and average hotel nights from Dubai Tourism 2023(link).Spending from Tourism Economics(link).Excludes spending on airfares.Spending on airfares with Dubai-based carriers is captured in the core economic impact.17 In 2023 prices.Dubai welcomed over 17 mi

89、llion international visitors in 2023,making it the second most visited city in the world.15 The number of international overnight visitors travelling to Dubai surpassed that of other major tourism destinations,including London,Paris,Rome,Tokyo,and New York.In addition to supporting a strong aviation

90、 sector,international visitors generate economic activity and employment through their spending while in Dubai.In 2023,the average visitor stayed 3.8 nights at Dubais hotels and spent AED 4,300 during their visit on hotels,restaurants,recreational activities,and retail.16In 2023,international visito

91、rs flying to Dubai spent an estimated AED 66 billion.Dubais largest source nations in terms of aviation-facilitated tourism spending were India(AED 7.6 billion),the UK(AED 7.0 billion),and Saudi Arabia(AED 5.7 billion).In total,aviation-facilitated tourism spending is estimated to have contributed:A

92、ED 43 billion in gross value added,or 8.5%of Dubais GDP;and 329,000 jobs across Dubai.Of the AED 43 billion in gross value added supported in the Dubai economy by aviation-facilitated tourism in 2023,around two-thirds(AED 29 billion)was generated through direct operations by key tourism industries s

93、uch as hotels,restaurants,retail,and recreational activities.The remainder was stimulated through the tourism sectors supply chain spending(indirect)and wage-funded consumption by employees(induced).The catalytic impact of aviation-facilitated tourism in Dubai is forecast to grow significantly over

94、the next six years.By 2030,the aviation-facilitated tourism spending is expected to support AED 63 billion in gross value added17,equivalent to 10%of Dubais forecast GDP.In the same year,aviation facilitated tourism is forecast to sustain 429,000 jobs,or one in eight jobs across the emirate.Fig.11:C

95、atalytic impact of tourism spending in Dubai in 2023AED billionsNumber of jobsSource:Oxford EconomicsGVA(left axis)Employment(right axis)00Note:totals may not sum due to rounding160,000240,000400,0001030405080,000EmiratesOther Carriers20320,000232043177,000151,000329,00022The economic impact of avia

96、tion in DubaiFig.12:Catalytic impact of aviation-facilitated tourism spending in Dubai in 2023 and 20302023GVA (AED bn)GVA (%Dubai GDP)Employment (,000s)Employment(%Dubai workforce)Direct 295.72146.6Indirect and induced142.81153.5Aviation facilitated tourism438.5329102030 forecastGVA(AED bn)GVA(%Dub

97、ai GDP)Employment(,000s)Employment(%Dubai workforce)Direct437.02797.8Indirect and induced213.41504.2Aviation facilitated tourism631042912Note:Totals may not sum due to rounding.All monetary values presented in 2023 prices.Excludes tourism spending on air travel with Dubai-based carriers as these are

98、 captured within the core economic impacts.23The economic impact of aviation in Dubai24The economic impact of aviation in Dubai5.THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF AVIATION SECTOR ENTITIES5.1 EMIRATES ECONOMIC IMPACT18 Emirates passengers carried in 2023;Emirates cargo carried October 2022 to September 2023;dna

99、ta aircraft turns handled October 2022 to September 2023Through operating the worlds largest international airline,and one of the worlds largest aviation services companies,Emirates plays a central role in Dubais aviation sector and the wider economy.Emirates Airline flew 52 million passengers and t

100、ransported 1.9 million tonnes of cargo in 2023,while dnata handled 385,000 aircraft worldwide.18 Through these operations,Emirates directly contributed AED 56 billion to Dubais GDP and employed 81,000 staff in the emirate.Emirates supply chain spending also made an indirect contribution of AED 14 bi

101、llion to Dubais GDP and supported 106,000 jobs.In addition,wage-funded consumption spending by Emirates employeesand by those working in its supply chainsstimulated an induced gross value added contribution of AED 5.0 billion to Dubai GDP and supported a further 48,000 jobs.In total,Emirates core ec

102、onomic impact in 2023 supported AED 75 billion in gross value added,equivalent to 15%of Dubais GDP;and 236,000 jobs across Dubai economy,or one in every 14 jobs in the emirate.Fig.13:Emirates core economic impact in Dubai in 2023AED billionsNumber of jobsSource:Oxford Economics,Emirates,Dubai Airpor

103、tsGVA(left axis)Employment(right axis)00Note:totals may not sum due to rounding20507080901004060103056145.07581,000106,00048,000236,00050,000100,000150,000200,000250,00025,00075,000125,000175,000225,000DirectIndirectInducedNote:Purchases between aviation entities are excluded to avoid double countin

104、g.25The economic impact of aviation in DubaiEmirates also made substantial economic contributions through its catalytic impact of aviation-facilitated tourism.In 2023,Emirates Airline carried 54%of all international visitors who travelled to Dubai by air.Spending by these international visitors cont

105、ributed AED 23 billion in gross value added(4.6%of Dubais GDP),supporting 177,000 jobs across Dubai.This represented more than half of the total catalytic impact of aviation-facilitated tourism in the emirate,across all airlines.Combined with its core economic impact,Emirates 19 In 2023 prices.total

106、 economic contribution in 2023 was:AED 98 billion in gross value added in 2023,or 19%of Dubais GDP;and 413,000 jobs,equivalent to one in every eight jobs in the emirate.Based on projected passenger growth rates,Emirates overall economic contribution to Dubais economy is forecast to grow to AED 144 b

107、illion,or nearly a quarter of Dubais forecast GDP in 2030.19 This reflects its core economic contribution rising to AED 107 billion and its catalytic impact rising to AED 37 billion in 2030.Furthermore,the number of jobs supported by Emirates in Dubai is forecast to rise to 554,000,or one insix jobs

108、 across Dubai.Thisincludes the number of jobs supported through its core impact rising to 300,000 in 2030,while the number supported through its catalytic impact rising to 254,000.Fig.14:Emirates economic impact in Dubai in 2023 and 20302023CoreCatalyticTotal contributionAs%Dubai totalGross value ad

109、ded,AED billions75239819Employment,thousands236177413132030 forecastCoreCatalyticTotal contributionAs%Dubai totalGross value added,AED billions1073714424Employment,thousands30025455415Note:All monetary values presented in 2023 prices.26The economic impact of aviation in Dubai5.2 DUBAI AIRPORTS AND O

110、THER AVIATION SECTOR ENTITIES ECONOMIC IMPACT 20 OAG 2024(link).21 Dubai Airports data on operations in 2023.22 Airports Council International 2023(link).Dubai International Airport was the worlds busiest airport for international passengers in 2023.20 Combined with Al Maktoum International Airport,

111、Dubai Airports served 88 million passengers,processed 452,000 aircraft,and handled 2.4 million tonnes of cargo in 2023.21 Owing to its substantial capacity and connectivity,Dubai International Airport topped the ACI Airport Connectivity Index rankings for Asia Pacific and the Middle East region.22 D

112、ubai Airports works closely with other aviation sector entities,including Dubai Police,GDRFA,Dubai Customs,DCAA,and DANS to enhance and protect the Dubai aviation ecosystem.Other major associated entities are Dubai Duty Free,the largest retail operator at the airport and Dubai Aviation Engineering P

113、rojects(DAEP),which is involved in infrastructure development.Through these operations,Dubai Airports and other aviation sector entities supported a direct contribution of 14 billion to Dubais GDP and employed 21,000 staff in the emirate.Supply chain spending by Dubai Airports and other aviation sec

114、tor entities also made an indirect contribution of AED 3.5 billion to Dubais GDP and supported 33,000 jobs across the Dubai economy.Note:Purchases between aviation entities are excluded to avoid double counting.AED billionsNumber of jobsSource:Oxford Economics,Emirates,Dubai AirportsGVA(left axis)Em

115、ployment(right axis)00Note:totals may not sum due to rounding612161820101442816,00032,00048,00064,00080,00072,0008,00024,00040,00056,000DirectIndirectInduced143.51.41921,00033,00013,00067,000Fig.15:Core economic impact of Dubai Airports and other aviation sector entities in Dubai in202327The economi

116、c impact of aviation in DubaiWage-funded consumption spending by Dubai Airports and other aviation sector entities employeesand by those working in their supply chainsstimulated an induced gross value added contribution of AED 1.4 billion and sustained 13,000 jobs.Together,Dubai Airports and other a

117、viation sector entities supported a core economic impact in 2023 of AED 19 billion in gross value added,equivalent to 3.7%of Dubais GDP;and 67,000 jobs,or one in every 48 jobs in the emirate.All of Dubais aviation-facilitated tourism impact is considered part of Dubai Airports catalytic impact,as al

118、l international visitors flying into Dubai do so through its airports.23 In 2023 prices.Combining its core and catalytic impacts,the overall impact of Dubai Airports and other aviation entities in 2023 was:AED 62 billion in gross value added,or 12%of GDP;and 396,000 jobs across the emirate.Based on

119、projected financial and passenger growth,the overall economic contribution of Dubai Airports and other aviation entities to Dubais economy is forecast to grow to AED 89 billion,or 15%of Dubais forecast GDP in 2030.23 This reflects their core impact rising to AED 26 billion,plus Dubais total catalyti

120、c impact rising to AED 63 billion.These entities overall number of jobs supported is also forecast to grow to 516,000 in 2030,reflecting the core impact jobs supported rising to 87,000,while the overall number of jobs supported through the catalytic impact rising to 429,000.Fig.16:Dubai Airports and

121、 other aviation sector entities economic impact in Dubai in 2023 and 20302023CoreCatalyticTotal contributionAs%Dubai totalGross value added,AED billions19436212Employment,thousands67329396122030 forecastCoreCatalyticTotal contributionAs%Dubai totalGross value added,AED billions26638915Employment,tho

122、usands8742951614Note:All monetary values presented in 2023 prices.28The economic impact of aviation in DubaiGLOSSARYGross Value Added(GVA):The sum of compensation of employees and earnings before interest,taxes,depreciation,and amortisation(EBITDA).It is also equal to revenue minus the cost of bough

123、t in goods and services used up to produce that revenue.Summed across all firms in an economy,and after small adjustments for taxes and subsidies,GVA is equal to GDP.Employment:The number of people employed,regardless of whether their employment is full time or part time.It is measured in headcount

124、terms for comparability to national statistics.Tax:The government revenues generated through the economic activity that the sector supports or facilitates within Dubai,that flows to either the Dubai or UAE governments.These include corporation tax,value added tax,customs duties,social security contr

125、ibutions for Emirati employees,and aeronautical charges transferred directly to government.Direct impact:Economic activity directly generated by Dubai aviation sector entities at their operational sites.Indirect impact:Economic activity that occurs due to entities in the Dubai aviation sector buying

126、 inputs of goods and services from third-party suppliers.Induced impact:Economic activity supported in the consumer economy through wage-funded consumption by employees working in the sector and its supply chains.Core impact:The total Dubai aviation sectors contribution to the Dubai economy through

127、its three channels of impact(direct,indirect,and induced impacts).EBITDA:Earnings(profits)before interest,tax,depreciation,and amortisation.Compensation of employees:Compensation of employees represents the total remuneration payable to employees in cash or in kind,including private healthcare and s

128、ocial contributions payable by the employer.Supply chain spending:Expenditure with third-party suppliers.In this study,we included both day-to-day operational expenditure plus outflows on capital expenditure.Capital expenditure refers to long-term major expenses on equipment,building,and capital goo

129、ds such as aircraft and machinery.This included both standard capital expenditure outflows for capital goods directly purchased by entities in the sector,plus operating leases(Right of Use assets)for capital goods such as aircraft,where the aviation sector entity does not become the legal owner of t

130、he good but benefits from its use.Tourists(or international visitors):Tourism is defined by the activities of persons identified as visitors.A visitor is someone who is making a visit to a main destination outside their usual environment for less than a year for any main purpose,including holidays,l

131、eisure and recreation,business,health,education,or other purposes.Tourism spending:The spending visitors to Dubai make whilst in the country on goods and services.The definition of visitors includes those visiting for either business or leisure.Catalytic tourism impact:The impact of tourism spending

132、 within Dubai attributable to people travelling to the emirate by air.In this report,only spending of visitors whose final travel destination is Dubai,or those who are transiting Dubai but staying in the emirate for more than 24 hours,are included.Transit passengersthose remaining in Dubai for less

133、than 24 hoursare excluded.29The economic impact of aviation in Dubai30The economic impact of aviation in DubaiAPPENDIXMEASURING THE IMPACT OF OTHER DUBAI AVIATION SECTOR ENTITIES24 The Al Maktoum Airport expansion announced in April 2024 is not included in the impact forecast.The DWC expansion would

134、 contribute an estimated AED 6.1 billion in gross value added to the economy in 2030,equivalent to 1.0%of Dubais forecasted GDP;and generate 132,000 jobs,equivalent to 3.7%of Dubais employment in that year.This assumes there is AED 12.8 billion construction works in 2030,derived from the total capit

135、al expenditure of AED 128 billion investment reported in The National 2024(link),which were evenly distributed over a decade.This estimate assumes all capital expenditure in 2030 is spent within the Dubai construction sector and does not include the value of land purchases.Note this is a single year

136、 impact of the construction project in 2030,not the ongoing impact of Al Maktoum Airports increased capacity and operations.Other Dubai aviation sector entities included flydubai,Dubai Duty Free,Dubai Aviation Engineering Projects(DAEP),Dubai Police,Dubai Customs,Dubai Immigration,Dubai Air Navigati

137、on Services,Dubai Civil Aviation Authority,the General Directorate of Residency and Foreigners Affairs(GDRFA),and Dubai Aviation City Corporation.No detailed financial data were available for the other Dubai aviation sector entities.As such,Oxford Economics utilised a range of data sources to estima

138、te financial,procurement,and employment values for these entities,including airport pass counts provided by Dubai Airports,published financial accounts,and data from Oxford Economics input-output model for the Dubai economy.flydubaifinancial and employment data were sourced from published financial

139、accounts.These were combined with industry average data from Oxford Economics input-output model for Dubais economy to estimate their procurement spend.Dubai Duty Freeemployment data was sourced from published financial accounts.These were combined with industry average data from Oxford Economics in

140、put-output model for Dubais economy to estimate their revenue,profits,compensation of employees,and procurement spend.Remaining entitiesemployment estimates were based on airport pass counts provided by Dubai Airports.These were combined with industry average data from Oxford Economics input-output

141、model for Dubais economy to estimate their revenue,profits,compensation of employees,and procurement spend.DAEPs impacts modelling included capital expenditure on construction projects in 2023 and 2030 forecasts,although this excluded spending related to the planned expansion to Al Maktoum Airport.2

142、4Oxford Economics calculated the direct impacts using these estimated financials,before modelling the wider indirect and induced impacts using Oxford Economics input-output model.MEASURING THE CATALYTIC IMPACT OF AVIATION-FACILITATED TOURISM SPENDING Estimating the spending of aviation-facilitated t

143、ourism required the use of multiple detailed datasets,including IATA DDS passenger data;official statistics from Dubai Tourism on international visitors;Department of Economy and Tourism on tourism by inbound mode of transport;and a large number of datasets from Oxford Economics sister company,Touri

144、sm Economics,on international visitor spend,spend type,and mode of transport.The approach used to estimate international visitor spending by country of origin and airline carrier involved:1.Inbound visitorsIATA DDS data were used to measure the number of international passengers flying into Dubai,br

145、oken down by country of origin and airline carrier.The data identify passengers remaining in Dubai for over 24 hours(overnight visitors),and those immediately boarding another flight out of Dubai(transit passengers).Data from Dubai Tourism and Tourism Economics were used to estimate the proportion o

146、f the overnight visitors that can be classified as tourists.2.Average inbound visitor spendingTourism Economics extensive database includes 31The economic impact of aviation in Dubaistatistics on international visitor spending by origin country and by spending category(e.g.accommodation,recreation,r

147、etail,etc).It was important to estimate spending by origin country to account for variations in spending patterns and visit durations.The estimates were produced at an airline carrier level.Department of Economy and Tourism data on international tourism by inbound mode of transport were also used to

148、 account for the proportion of tourism spending attributed to aviation passengers.Final estimates were then produced at an airline carrier level.The above approach provided detailed estimates of inbound international visitors to Dubai by carrier and their associated expenditure by spend category.Oxf

149、ord Economics proprietary input-output model was then used to model the impact of this expenditure on the Dubai economy.ECONOMIC IMPACT MODELLINGDirect impacts were calculated by Oxford Economics using HR and financial data provided by Emirates and Dubai Airports.To estimate the wider impacts on Dub

150、ai,Oxford Economics used its proprietary subnational input-output model for the UAE economy.The model describes the Dubai and wider UAE economy in terms of interlinkages between industries in the economy,local household spending patterns,and the amount of demand that is met by local production or im

151、ported.Oxford Economics utilised these modelsalong with supply chain spending data provided by Emirates and Dubai Airportsto estimate Fig.17:Illustrative input-output modelIndustry 1Industry 2Industry 3Entity 1C1,1C2,1C3,1Entity 2C1,2Entity 3C1,3Employment incomesC1,4ProfitsC1,5LeakagesC1,6,7Total i

152、nputsC1,8Consumer spendingOther final demandC4,1C5,6,7,1Total outputsC8,132The economic impact of aviation in DubaiEmirates and Dubai Airports indirect and induced impacts in terms of gross value added and jobs supported in Dubai.Oxford Economics also modelled the expected additional economic activi

153、ty stimulated in Dubai through Emirates and Dubai Airports spending with international suppliers.This was achieved by using Oxford Economics Global Sustainability Model(GSM)an inter-country input-output model covering 185 countries,allowing for estimation of how spending in one economy can stimulate

154、 economic activity across global value chains.The GSM allows for“trade feedback loops”to be capturedfor example,Dubai spending with overseas machinery manufacturers could stimulate economic activity in Dubai if those manufacturers subsequently purchase financial services from Dubai as intermediate i

155、nputs in their production process.INDUSTRY PROJECTIONS FOR 2030Dubai statistics Dubai GDP figures are based on official data from Dubai Statistics Centre.As 2022 is the latest available data for GDP statistics,growth rates for 2023 and 2030 were sourced from Oxford Economics forecasts for the Dubai-

156、Sharjah-Ajman metropolitan area.As no Dubai employment statistics are publicly available,2023 and 2030 figures are based on Oxford Economics estimates and forecasts.Aviation entities Dubai Airports financial forecasts for 2030 were provided by Dubai Airports.Emirates financial forecasts for 2030 are

157、 based on growth rates informed by passenger projections provided by Emirates.Other aviation entities based on employment for the current year are based on airport pass counts provided by Dubai Airports.Growth forecasts are estimated as part of the study based on Dubai Airports employee forecast.Tou

158、rism impacts Oxford Economics used passenger forecasts from Emirates and Dubai Airports,along with Tourism Economics forecasts of Dubai international visitors spending by origin country.These were used to forecast visitor and spending growth rates for inbound visitors into Dubai by airline carrier.T

159、hese projections are naturally sensitive to a variety of headwind and tailwind risks that could impact air passenger traffic growthincluding geopolitical risks,supply chain issues,and competition across the region.33The economic impact of aviation in DubaiOXFORD ECONOMICSOxford Economics was founded

160、 in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford Universitys business college to provide economic forecasting and modelling toUK companies and financial institutions expanding abroad.Since then,we have become one of the worlds foremost independent global advisory firms,providing reports,forecasts and an

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162、rd,England,with regional centres in New York,London,Frankfurt,and Singapore,OxfordEconomics has offices across the globe in Belfast,Boston,Cape Town,Chicago,Dubai,Dublin,Hong Kong,Los Angeles,Mexico City,Milan,Paris,Philadelphia,Stockholm,Sydney,Tokyo,and Toronto.We employ 650 staff,including more t

163、han 450professional economists,industry experts,and business editorsone of the largest teams of macroeconomists and thought leadership specialists.Our global team is highly skilled in a full range of research techniques and thought leadership capabilities from econometric modelling,scenario framing,

164、and economic impact analysis to market surveys,case studies,expert panels,and web analytics.Oxford Economics is a key adviser to corporate,financial and government decision-makers and thought leaders.Our worldwide client base now comprises over 2,000 international organisations,including leading mul

165、tinational companies and financial institutions;key government bodies and trade associations;and top universities,consultancies,and think tanks.October 2024All data shown in tables and charts are Oxford Economics own data,except where otherwise stated and cited in footnotes,and are copyright Oxford

166、Economics Ltd.This report is confidential to Emirates and Dubai Airports and may not be published or distributed without their prior written permission.The modelling and results presented here are based on information provided by third parties,upon which Oxford Economics has relied in producing its

167、report and forecasts in good faith.Any subsequent revision or update of those data will affect the assessments and projections shown.To discuss the report further please contact:Sami Hamroush:Oxford Economics 4 Millbank,London SW1P 3JA,UKTel:+44 203 910 8061Global headquartersOxford Economics Ltd Ab

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