1、 Global Valve and Actuator Market Outlook Autumn 2024 Sample material Copyright 2024 Oxford Economics This report is exclusively for the use of BVAA members.Distribution of this report to non-members(including non-UK affiliates of BVAA members)is strictly prohibited.Contents Autumn 2024 Preface incl

2、uded in sample i Overview included in sample 1 Risks 7 Outlook for national valve and actuator markets China 8 US 10 Germany 12 Italy 14 France 16 UK 18 India included in sample 20 Japan 22 Canada 24 Middle East&Africa 26 Smaller markets 28 Outlook for valve-and actuator-using sectors Oil and gas 33

3、 Chemicals 36 Power generation 39 Water and wastewater Agriculture 42 Construction 45 Water,sewerage&waste management 48 General industry 51 Mining 53 Food&beverages 56 Pulp&paper 59 Pharmaceuticals 62 Basic metals 65 Industrial machinery 68 Shipbuilding and rail rolling stock inc.in sample 71 Appen

4、dices Glossary included in sample 74 Data methodology included in sample 77 Forecast tables 85 Preface Autumn 2024 Page i Welcome to the 2024 Global Valve and Actuator Outlook,the seventh annual market report prepared by Oxford Economics,one of the worlds foremost independent global economic forecas

5、ting firms.The report is commissioned by the British Valve and Actuator Association(BVAA).We continue to encourage usage of the online Power BI data tool.Power BI is a business analytics platform developed by Microsoft that permits easy visualisation of the data.This year we have updated our trainin

6、g video explaining how to use this tool.The Excel data tool is also available.Oxford Economics extends heartfelt thanks to the BVAA,as well as its members.Your support and feedback are critical to ensuring the quality and relevance of the analysis that follows.Jeremy Leonard Managing Director of Glo

7、bal Industry Services Oxford Economics October 2024 Overview Autumn 2024 Page 1 Overview Valves&actuators market slowly recovering The global valves market expanded by an estimated 4.2%in 2023 to reach US$85 billion,while the small actuator market expanded at a similar pace.This followed a much weak

8、er than expected 2022 outturn.Given the inflationary pressures facing the global economy that year14%increase in PPI,the highest since 1995we had anticipated inflationary pressures within the valves sector would boost our nominal forecasts,but this failed to materialise.With inflationary pressures n

9、ow easing,our valve and actuator market forecasts should grow more in line with underlying economic drivers.Our macroeconomic forecasts have been upgraded since our last report.We now expect that the global economy will grow by 2.7%in 2024 and 2.8%in 2025 as monetary policy gradually loosens,allowin

10、g for a pick-up in consumer and business activity.Our expectation of central banks cutting interest rates is starting to materialise.However,we still anticipate that central banks will tread cautiously and choose to bring policy rates down at a slower pace,to claw back some lost credibility amidst l

11、ingering concerns regarding the strength of service sector inflation and still tight labour markets.Indeed,despite interest rate cuts across numerous major economies,the lagged impact of hawkish monetary policy and continued caution from central banks will prevent a faster rebound in activity.At the

12、 same time,fiscal policy is expected to stay reactive and gradually tighten.While we have upgraded our outlook for GDP growth,the industrial sector continues to struggle,especially in Europe.The impact of past rate hikes appears to be weighing on industrial activity more heavily than anticipated.The

13、 weakness early in 2024 was expected,but the latest data suggest that our forecast of a nascent,if not strong,industrial recovery in the second half of 2024 is too optimistic.Nonetheless,our forecast for 2024 of 2.1%growth still represents an acceleration from the 1.2%growth in 2023,and as the impac

14、t of tighter monetary policy eases,we should see industrial activity accelerate further in 2025 to closer to 3%.Sectors key to valves consumption are some of the most sensitive to interest rate changes.Residential building should start to see a pick-up next year as interest rates are cut.The non-res

15、idential sector will be aided by strong government investment in the short term as industrial policy becomes a more mainstream focus.The chemicals sector,on the other hand,will benefit from the end of the destocking Overview Autumn 2024 Page 2 cycle and the pass-through from lower interest rates.The

16、 upturn in industrial activity should help propel activity in the power generation sector.Meanwhile oil&gas production has been stronger than expected from non-OPEC+production,while OPEC production has been weaker as decisions to unwind output cuts have been pushed back.We expect the global valves m

17、arket to register an increase of 3.6%in 2024 and 4.1%in 2025,with the actuator market expected to grow at a similar pace.Much of the upgrade to our 2024 forecast is due to an element of catch-up as the 2022 outturn was weaker than expected,but also because global growth is somewhat stronger.On a reg

18、ional basis,growth in North America is expected to be the strongest in 2024.Unlike in Europe,the US industrial sector has surprised to the upside,including activity in key valves-consuming sectors such as oil extraction.The construction sector has benefitted from a boom in non-residential constructi

19、on helping offset weakness in the housing sector.We expect US demand to grow by 5.5%this year,while the region as a whole is forecast to grow by 4.5%.European demand is set to expand at much slower pace of 2.8%.This is partly due to a correction in prices,which weighs on our nominal figures,but also

20、 because the industrial sector has continued to disappoint.We expect European demand to expand by 2.8%in 2024 before decelerating to 1.9%in 2025.Demand in Asia Pacific is expected to grow by 3.9%this year before rising to 5.3%next year.China will be a laggard,with demand rising by just 3%in 2024 and

21、 4.4%in 2025.Demand here will be weighed down by continued weakness in the construction sector,and we remain sceptical that the recently announced government stimulus will provide any significant boostalthough we should see solid growth from other key customer sectors such as chemicals.Regional grow

22、th will be driven by countries such as India,where the valve market is forecast to grow by 10.8%this year and 9.1%next year.Elsewhere,South American demand is forecast to rise by 2.8%,although growth will vary across different countries.Consumption in Middle East&Africa is forecast to grow by 2.1%.H

23、owever,Saudi Arabian demand will decline by 2.3%in 2024,reflecting the deeper production cuts the oil producer has undertaken.These should unwind next year,helping support valves demand.Overview Autumn 2024 Page 3 Overview Autumn 2024 Page 4 Overview Autumn 2024 Page 5 Table:Valve market forecasts a

24、cross global regions and key large national markets(US$mn through 2028)Table:Valve market forecasts across global regions and key large national markets(annual growth rates through 2028)Overview Autumn 2024 Page 6 Table:Actuator market forecasts across global regions and key large national markets(U

25、S$mn through 2028)Table:Actuator market forecasts across global regions and key large national markets(annual growth rates through 2028)India Autumn 2024 Page 20 India Valve demand to slow over coming quarters As one of the largest countries in the world by populationwhich has been rapidly urbanisin

26、g and industrialising in recent yearsit is no surprise that India is among the top global consumers of valves.With 5%of global consumption,the US$3,870 million market is ranked as the third largest in the world in 2023,behind China and the US.The outlook for India is optimistic,with GDP growth forec

27、ast at 6.8%in 2024 and 7.0%in 2025.While this indicates robust growth,a closer look reveals some cooling.Private consumption has softened recently,and a third consecutive drop in industrial production signals weakening investment demand.Whats more,business survey data released at the start of Q4 sug

28、gest expectations for production and capacity utilisation remain subdued,while expectations about order book levels declined even further.Unemployment remains high,with jobs still heavily reliant on the weather-dependent agricultural sector.Financing conditions are tight,preventing private investmen

29、t from becoming a strong driver of rapid growth.Additionally,external demand remains weak and is only slowly improving,with nominal goods exports declining in September.In line with the macroeconomic outlook,we forecast a cooling down of weighted industrial production by valve-using sectors,from the

30、 7.9%growth witnessed last year to 5.0%this year.This slowdown stems from the general industry sector,which accounts for 16%of demand and is expected to grow by 5.4%this year after double-digit growth in 2023.Although the construction sector is still projected to grow by 2.1%in 2024,driven by the co

31、untrys rapid urbanisation process,this growth is relatively low compared to the 7.9%expansion seen over the past two years.This will affect valve consumption,given that this segment accounts for roughly one-fourth of demand.Overall,we anticipate a 10.8%increase in valve demand in 2024,followed by sl

32、ower growth of 9.1%in the following year.Similarly,the actuators market is expected to expand by 10.7%this year,with growth tapering to 9.7%in 2025.In the medium term,we project that valve and actuator demand will remain robust over the 202528 horizon,with an average annual growth rate of 9.6%.nvest

33、 ent ei hted ource ord cono ics aver na ytics orecast onsu ption ro th rate ource ord cono ics year orecast i ions onsu ption ro th rate ource ord cono ics year orecast i ions India Autumn 2024 Page 21 Table:Valve market forecasts for India(annual growth rates and levels through 2028)Table:Actuator

34、market forecasts for India(annual growth rates and levels through 2028)Shipbuilding and rail rolling stock Autumn 2024 Page 71 Shipbuilding and rail Technological advancements driving financial and environmental progress This sector(which consists primarily of shipbuilding and railroad locomotives a

35、nd carriages,but also includes motorcycles,bicycles,and military vehicles such as tanks and armoured personnel carriers)saw recovering production,rising prices,and a steady influx of orders in 2023 contributing to our global expected output in the sector to grow by 7.4%in 2024.South Korea continues

36、to work on its huge order backlog,which reached a 12-year high in 2023,whilst increasing development on eco-friendly segments including LNG and LPG carriers.China,which dominates 50%of total global shipbuilding capacity,remains focused on military modernisation,with its vast shipbuilding empire at t

37、he heart of it.Optimism surrounding the global trade outlook accelerate production progress,although signs of extensive military corruption in China pose a threat to the sustainability of growth in the sector.With inflation stabilising,interest rates being cut,and reduced concerns over international

38、 conflicts,confidence is rising across Europe.This positive outlook is expected to boost shipbuilders in Europe as consumer spending power,particularly on discretionary big-ticket items,improves.Long lead-in times and programme durations imply the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be ex

39、tended by several years,dampening the longer-term outlook.Continuing demand changes are likely as journeys become longer due to the Gaza conflict and Houthis attacks disrupting Red Sea shipping.Investment patterns in rail segments are indicative of the factors influencing ridership in both public tr

40、ansit and local/long-distance rail travel.The railway segment is set to improve both financially and environmentally due to the development of locomotive technologiesnamely the use of LNG(liquified natural gas)as a substitute to diesel.Improving technology drives demand with the advancement of the S

41、ic module,IGBT module and auxiliary power units allowing for increased efficiency and reduced emissions in locomotive engines.The Asia Pacific region is set to dominate the locomotive market:with passenger numbers continuously rising and many rail industry developments underway,significant growth is

42、 expected.Taken together,after this years expansion,we expect sectoral investment to accelerate further by 4.5%in 2025 and steady growth moving forward.o rce xfor cono ics a er na ytics tan ar ise in ex n icator ase on ,er an an hinese export or ers s r eys o rce xfor cono ics a er na ytics i tons e

43、a a e a e o tp t rowth rate ,i ions o rce xfor cono ics a er na ytics year orecast or refers to the co ntries inc e in the in stry ser ice Shipbuilding and rail rolling stock Autumn 2024 Page 72 ons ption rowth rate ,i ions o rce xfor cono ics year orecastTable:Top 20 markets of valve&actuactor endu

44、se consumption in ships,rolling stock etc(2023 US$mn,annual growth rates through 2028)Shipbuilding and rail rolling stock Autumn 2024 Page 73 Table:Output in ships,rolling stock arcoss etc across global regions(Annual growth rates through 2028)Glossary Autumn 2024 Page 74 Definition of market size W

45、e define the national market size(also referred to as“apparent consumption,”“consumption”or“demand”)as:Market size=domestic production exports+imports.Figures are expressed in nominal terms(i.e.,not adjusted for inflation),and are converted to US dollars at current-year exchange rates.Therefore,move

46、ments in currencies will have an impact on market size.Definition of valve types Our core dataset for valves uses the Harmonised System(HS)of trade classification,since it is the only classification system that is consistent across all countries covered in the report.The data cover valves of all siz

47、es and applications(including for both industrial and household use).Unfortunately,the World Customs Organisation,which administers the HS definitions,offers no more detail on the nomenclature definitions than the names shown in the table below.HS Codes Category ID1 8481 Total Valves V 848110 Pressu

48、re reducing valves V_Pre 848130 Check valves V_Che 848140 Safety/Relief valves V_Saf 848180 Other valves V_Oth 848190 Valves Parts V_Par In agreement with the sponsoring organisations,the definition of the“Valve Market”for the purpose of this report excludes Oleohydraulic/Pneumatic valves(HS Code 84

49、8120)and Valves parts(HS Code 848190).In the case of the former,they are part of the fluid power industry,and are not considered part of the valve industry as understood by the users of this report.In the case of the latter,we have followed the convention of the EIF report.However,we have provided d

50、ata and forecasts for the Valve Parts and Oleohydraulic/Pneumatic valve categories in the Excel data tool for interested users.Definition of actuator types For actuators,market data is more challenging because actuators are not coded as a distinct product from the system they are actuating.Furthermo

51、re,the data make no distinction about whether the actuator is used for a valve assembly or some other application(such as factory automation devices).As published data are not available for either trade or production of actuators,we have used a different approach to estimate actuator consumption.Fol

52、lowing detailed discussions with BVAA and VMA members,it was concluded that actuator data were most likely included within the“other”valve category.We assume that in the absence of any published data,the EIF estimates are the best available.In order to maintain internal consistency with our own data

53、,we applied the ratio of EIFs estimates for actuators to“other”valves+actuators to our own initial estimates for“other”valves and deducted the resulting value from our“other”valves variable.As EIFs definition of“other”valves include check valves,we have also included check valves in this calculation

54、 although the deduction is only from“other”valves.While this adjustment affects the level of national actuator markets,we will continue to use the data we have on electric motors that include actuators to split the total actuator market into the three types of electric,hydraulic and pneumatic actuat

55、ors.Those product codes are shown on the following page.Glossary Autumn 2024 Page 75 HS Codes Category Description ID1 Total Actuators A 850110 Electric Actuator Electric motors of an output not exceeding 37.5W,including synchronous motors not exceeding 18W-universal AC/DC motors A_ELC 850131 Electr

56、ic Actuator DC motors and generators of an output exceeding 37.5W but not exceeding 750W excluding:-starter motors for internal combustion engine A_ELC 850140 Electric Actuator Single-phase AC motors A_ELC 841221 Hydraulic Actuator Hydraulic power engines and motors,linear acting cylinders;excluding

57、 hydraulic systems A_HP 841229 Hydraulic Actuator Hydraulic power engines&motors other than linear acting cylinders A_HP 841239 Pneumatic Actuator Pneumatic power engines and motors other than linear acting cylinders A_P 841280 Pneumatic Actuator Pneumatic power engines and motors;others A_P 841231

58、Pneumatic Actuator Pneumatic power engines and motors,linear-acting cylinders A_P Glossary Autumn 2024 Page 76 Definition of end-use markets We use the NACE revision 2 classification system for our end use sector analysis(which is identical to the ISIC revision 4 and very close to the North American

59、 NAICS classification at this level of aggregation).Our data is sourced from GDP by sector data and industrial production data sources from national statistical agencies.More detail on our end-use sector data methodology is available on request.End Use MarketNACE SectorsSub-SectorsNACE CodeDescripti

60、onOil&natural gas extraction6Includes the production of crude petroleum,the mining and extraction of oil from oil shale and oil sands and the production of natural gas and recovery of hydrocarbon liquids.This division includes the activities of operating and/or developing oil and gas field propertie

61、s.Such activities include all activities in the preparation of oil and gas up to the point of shipment from the producing property.Coke&refined petroleum products19Includes the transformation of crude petroleum and coal into usable products.The dominant process is petroleum refining,which involves t

62、he separation of crude petroleum into component products through such techniques as cracking and distillation.This division also includes the manufacture of gases such as ethane,propane and butane as products of petroleum refineries;own account of characteristic products(e.g.coke,butane,propane,petr

63、ol,kerosene,fuel oil etc.)as well as processing services(e.g.custom refining).Basic chemicals&fertilisersPesticides&other agrochemicalsPaints,varnishes etcSoaps,detergents etcOther chemicals necMan-made fibresElectric power generation&distributionGas manufacture&distribution;air conAgriculture,fores

64、try&fisheries1-3Exploitation of vegetable and animal natural resources,comprising the activities of growing of crops,raising and breeding of animals,harvesting of timber and other plants,animals or animal products from a farm or their natural habitats.UtilitiesWater,sewerage&waste management36-39Thi

65、s section includes activities related to the management(including collection,treatment and disposal)of various forms of waste,such as solid or non-solid industrial or household waste,as well as contaminated sites.Activities of water supply are also grouped in this section.Residential building41-43No

66、n-residential buildingCoal&lignite mining5Other extraction activities7-9Food10Beverages11Textiles13Garments etc14Leather goods15Pulp&paper17This sector comprises manufacture of pulp,involving separating the cellulose fibres from other matter in wood;manufacture of raw paper,involving releasing pulp

67、onto a moving wire mesh so as to form a continuous sheet;conversion of paper into end-use products such as cardboard,sanitary paper,stationery,wallpaper,etc.Pharmaceuticals21Includes the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations,as well as the manufacture of medici

68、nal chemical and botanical productsRubber&plastics22This division includes the manufacture of rubber and plastics products.Iron&steelNon-ferrous metalsCastingMetal products25This division includes the manufacture of“pure”metal products(such as parts,containers and structures).The manufacture of weap

69、ons and ammunition is also includedMotors etc except for vehiclesOth.general purpose machineryAgricultural machineryMachine toolsOth.special purpose machineryTransport equipmentShips,rolling stock&etc.30This division includes the manufacture of transportation equipment such as ship building and boat

70、 manufacturing,the manufacture of railroad rolling stock and locomotives.includes the manufacture of machinery and equipment that act independently on materials either mechanically or thermally or perform operations on materials(such as handling,spraying,weighing or packing),including their mechanic

71、al components that produce and apply force,and any specially manufactured primary parts.General IndustryBasic metalsGeneral purpose machinerySpecial purpose machinery2828This division includes preparation and spinning of textile fibres as well as textile weaving,finishing of textiles and wearing app

72、arel,manufacture of made-up textile articles,except apparel(e.g.household linen,blankets,rugs,cordage etc.);tailoring in all materials of all items of clothing;dressing and dyeing of fur and the transformation of hides into leather by tanning or curing and fabricating the leather into products for f

73、inal consumption.Activities of smelting and/or refining ferrous and non-ferrous metals from ore,pig or scrap,using electrometallurgic and other process metallurgic techniques.Also includes the manufacture of metal alloys and super-alloys by introducing other chemical elements to pure metals.Extracti

74、on excluding oilFood&beveragesTextiles,leather&clothingTransformation of organic and inorganic raw materials by a chemical process and the formation of products.It distinguishes the production of basic chemicals that constitute the first industry group from the production of intermediate and end pro

75、ducts produced by further processing of basic chemicals that make up the remaining industry classes.Includes the activity of providing electric power,natural gas,steam,hot water and the like through a permanent infrastructure(network)of lines,mains and pipes.This division includes general constructi

76、on of buildings of all kinds.It includes new work,repair,additions and alterations,the erection of pre-fabricated buildings or structures on the site and also construction of temporary nature.Included is the construction of entire dwellings,office buildings,stores and other public and utility buildi

77、ngs,farm buildings,etc.Includes the extraction of coal,other solid mineral fuels and metallic ores through underground,seabed or open-cast mining,as well as activities such as crushing,grinding,washing,or compressing leading to a marketable productIncludes the processing of the products of agricultu

78、re,forestry and fishing into food for humans or animals,and includes the production of various intermediate products that are not directly food and beverage products.Beverages include both alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks.203524Oil,Gas,refiningChemicalsChemicalsPower GenerationUtilitiesWater and w

79、astewaterConstruction Data methodology Autumn 2024 Page 77 Detailed description of data methodology and assumptions The purpose of this appendix is to enable a broad,high-level understanding of the data construction process,through providing a high-level description of methodology as well as illustr

80、ative examples of the different approaches used to construct data in selected representative countries.As a result,this appendix provides a roadmap to a general understanding of the data.However,it should not be taken as a comprehensive guide.Further information on the assumptions used as part of th

81、is work can be found in the supplementary assumptions log.Any further questions on data can be sent to Oxford Economics.This appendix is split into two sections:1.Broad methodological approach;2.Detailed examples of data construction for selected countries.Broad methodological approach We measure ma

82、rket size(technically referred to as“apparent consumption”)as Apparent consumption=production exports+imports.Our methodology and sourcing are split into that used for the trade components of apparent consumption(exports and imports),and that used to construct national production data.Trade componen

83、ts(exports,imports)For all countries,trade data is sourced from the UN trade database(“Comtrade”).This database records customs data of the value of goods traded between countries.The classification system used for Comtrade is the UNs Harmonized System(HS)classification.The classification used for t

84、his work,discussed with associations and large market players,is as shown in the glossary tables.One important point is that,in agreement with the sponsoring associations,“Valve Market”is defined for the purpose of this report to exclude Valves Parts(HS Code-848190)and Oleohydraulic/Pneumatic valves

85、(HS Code-848120).However,we do provide data and forecasts for the valve parts and Oleohydraulic/Pneumatic valve categories in the interactive data tools.We understand that valves are typically differentiated into domestic and industrial valves based on their material of construction.8-digit trade da

86、ta that we received from the VDMA allow us to strip out domestic valves from the 6-digit trade data for valves.In the below,we will refer to the Comtrade data as our“lead”data source since it is the only source of data comprehensive enough to include all countries covered in this report.As a result,

87、the limitations of the Comtrade classification takes priority over more granular data sources that might be available in specific countries when determining mappings.Production There is no single source of production data for the countries covered in this report as there is for trade data.Therefore,

88、different approaches are used for different countries depending on their available data sources.It is possible to classify countries into groups which indicate the general methodology used to construct their production data:1.European countries;2.Non-European countries with domestic production that

89、have granular production data;3.Non-European countries with domestic production that do not have granular production data;4.Countries whose domestic production is marginal or zero.Data methodology Autumn 2024 Page 78 European countries:Eurostat collects detailed production information for very granu

90、lar industrial sectors in EU member countries;its database is called Prodcom.This information is itself collected from national statistical bodies,who implement survey methods to determine the size and value of production in different industrial sectors.The mapping used is detailed below and aligns

91、closely with the mapping used for Comtrade(indeed the classification has been designed to accord with the Comtrade HS classification system since this is our“lead”data source since it covers all countries globally):.CategorySub-CategoryTitleProdcom CodesID1ID2Pressure-reducing valves combined with f

92、ilters or lubricators28121420V_PrePressure-reducing valves of cast iron or steel,for pipes,boiler shells,tanks,vats and the like(excluding those combined with lubricators or filters)28141120V_PrePressure-reducing valves for pipes,boiler shells,tanks,vats and the like(excluding of cast iron or steel,

93、those combined with filters or lubricators)28141140V_PreCheckCheck valves for pipes,boiler shells,tanks,vats and the like28141160V_CheSafety/reliefSafety or relief valves for pipes,boiler shells,tanks,vats and the like 28141180V_SafOther appliances28141380V_OthMixing valves for sinks,wash basins,bid

94、ets,water cisterns etc.excluding valves for pressure-reducing or oleohydraulic/pneumatic power transmissions,check valves,safety/relief valves28141233V_OthTaps,cocks and valves for sinks,wash basins,bidets,water cisterns etc.excluding valves for pressure-reducing/oleohydraulic transmissions,check,sa

95、fety,relief and mixing valves28141235V_OthCentral heating radiator thermostatic valves28141253V_OthCentral heating radiator valves(excl.thermostatic valves)28141255V_OthTemperature regulators(excl.thermostatic valves for central heating radiators)28141313V_OthProcess control valves for pipes,boiler

96、shells,tanks etc.excluding valves for pressure-reducing or oleohydraulic/pneumatic power transmissions,check,safety/relief valves,temp.regulators28141315V_OthOther gate valves,of cast iron28141333V_OthV_Oth_GatOther gate valves,of steel28141335V_OthV_Oth_GatOther gate valves,other28141337V_OthV_Oth_

97、GatGlobe valves,of cast iron28141353V_OthV_Oth_GloGlobe valves,of steel28141355V_OthV_Oth_GloOther globe valves28141357V_OthV_Oth_GloBall/plugBall and plug valves28141373V_OthV_Oth_Bll/PlgButterflyButterfly valves28141375V_OthV_Oth_BflyDiaphragmDiaphragm valves28141377V_OthV_Oth_DiaParts(not include

98、d in valve market definition)Parts for taps,cocks,valves and similar appliances for pipes,boiler shells,tanks,vats and the like(including for pressure reducing-valves and thermostatically controlled valves)28142000V_ParValves for the control of oleohydraulic power transmission28121450V_O/PValves for

99、 the control of pneumatic power transmission28121480V_O/PDC motors and generators of an output 37.5 W but 750 W(excluding starter motors for internal combustion engines)27111030A_ELCSingle-phase AC motors of an output 750 W27112230A_ELCSingle-phase AC motors of an ouput 750 W27112250A_ELCElectric mo

100、tors of an output 37.5 W(including synchronous motors 18 W,universal AC/DC motors,AC and DC motors)27111010A_ELCHydraulic ActuatorHydraulic cylinders28121130A_HPPneumatic linear acting actuators(including cylinders)28121180A_PRotating hydraulic and pneumatic motors28121200A_PPneumatic ActuatorO/P Tr

101、ansmission(not included in valve market definition)Pressure-reducingOtherGateGlobeElectric Actuator Data methodology Autumn 2024 Page 79 These codes are combined with a range of assumptions,required due to limitations in the data,to form the eventual production data One key assumption relates to dat

102、a omitted by Prodcom to protect company confidentiality.This typically arises in smaller countries where there are few enough producers such that statistics could reveal private financial information about individual companies.In such cases,we do the following to fill in the data gaps:Calculate the

103、share of the product category in question in prior years as a percentage of overall EU production.Apply this percentage to the overall level of EU production in the year with missing data to calculate an estimate of the countrys production for that year.A further important assumption is made in the

104、context of the additional granularity under“Other“(V-Oth)cited in the above table.In this case,we assume that the share of V_Oth of overall production that applies to these detailed subsectors is the same as that for exports.Hence,we use the Prodcom data to split out the trade data from Comtrade to

105、construct granular trade data.Non-European countries with domestic production that have granular production data Outside of Europe,five countries have country specific data sources with granular data for valve production(United States,Japan,Argentina,Brazil and Malaysia).For these countries,we use t

106、his granular data,along with country-specific assumptions on the mapping of their valve categories(which are typically not classified according to HS)to the HS classification used by Comtrade,our lead data source.Japan Japan has detailed information available on valve production from its Ministry of

107、 Economy,Trade and Industry(METI).CategoryDescriptionID1High-temperature,high-pressure valves except control valvesV_PreControl valvesother power driveV_PreCheckControl valvespower drivesolenoid operatedV_CheSafety/reliefControl valvesself-containedsafety valvessteam trapsV_SafControl valvesother se

108、lf-containedV_OthValves and cocksfor general usemade of stainless steelexcept control valveshigh-temperature,high-pressure valvesV_OthValves and cocksfor general usemade of cast steelforged steelexcept control valveshigh-temperature,high-pressure valvesV_OthValves and cocksfor general usemade of cas

109、t iron except control valvesV_OthValves and cocksfor general usemade of bronzebrass except control valvesV_OthStop cockssnap cocksV_OthOil-hydraulic valvesincluding for unitV_O/PPneumatic valvesV_O/PPressure-reducingOtherO/P Transmission(not included in valve market definition)Data methodology Autum

110、n 2024 Page 80 Brazil Brazil has additional information available on valve production from its Annual Survey of Industry from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics.United States The United States has additional information available on valve production from its Annual Survey of Manufac

111、tures(ASM).This survey provides granular information on valve production across subsegments as defined in the NAICS classification system.CategoryDescriptionID1ID20 Thermostatic or pressure-operated expansion valvesV_PrePressure reducing valvesV_PreCheck050 Check valvesV_CheSafety/relief030 Safety o

112、r relief valvesV_Saf110 Valves,type,maleV_Oth090 Drawer type valvesV_OthSolenoid valvesV_OthGlobe100 Globe-type valvesV_OthV_Oth_GloBall/plugBall valvesV_OthV_Oth_Bll/PlgButterfly070 Butterfly ValvesV_OthV_Oth_BflyParts010 Parts and accessories for valves,taps and fittingsV_Par0 Valves and similar a

113、ppliances for the transmission of oil,hydraulic or pneumaticV_O/P130 Valves,taps,cocks,valves and similar appliances,n.e.-including hydraulic and pneumaticV_O/PPressure-reducingOtherO/P Transmission(not included in valve market definition)CategoryTitleASM CodesID1ID2Industrial valves for water works

114、 and municipal equipment(IBBM,AWWA,and UL)3329113V_PreAll other miscellaneous industrial valves332911BV_PreIndustrial valve manufacturing,nsk,total332911WV_PreAutomatic regulating and control valves and parts(excluding nuclear),power-operated,designed for modulating(throttling)service332911FV_PreChe

115、ckGates,globes,angles,straightway(Y-type)check,stop and check,cross,3-and 4-way,etc.3329111V_CheNuclear valves(N-stamp only)332911DV_SafAll other miscellaneous industrial valves332911BV_SafIndustrial valve manufacturing,nsk,total332911WV_OthSolenoid-operated valves and parts,excluding nuclear and fl

116、uid power transfer332911HV_OthAll other miscellaneous industrial valves332911BV_OthIndustrial valves for water works and municipal equipment(IBBM,AWWA,and UL)3329113V_OthGate&GlobeGates,globes,angles,straightway(Y-type)check,stop and check,cross,3-and 4-way,etc.3329111V_OthV_Oth_GGNuclearNuclear val

117、ves(N-stamp only)332911DV_OthV_Oth_NucPlugIndustrial plug valves(all metals,pressures,and types),including lubricated,cylindrical eccentric,and sleeve-lined3329119V_OthV_Oth_PlugBallIndustrial ball valves(all metals,pressures,and types),including manual and power-operated,on-off valves3329115V_OthV_

118、Oth_BallButterflyIndustrial butterfly valves(all metals,pressures,and types),including manual and power-operated,on-off valves3329117V_OthV_Oth_BflyParts for fluid power valves332912DV_ParAutomatic regulating and control valves and parts(excluding nuclear),power-operated,designed for modulating(thro

119、ttling)service332911FV_ParSolenoid-operated valves and parts,excluding nuclear and fluid power transfer332911HV_ParNonaerospace-type hydraulic directional control valves3329125V_O/PNonaerospace-type pneumatic directional control valves3329129V_O/PPressure-reducingSafety/reliefOtherParts(not included

120、 in valve market definition)O/P Transmission(not included in valve market definition)Data methodology Autumn 2024 Page 81 Non-European countries with domestic production that do not have granular production data For most non-European producers,national statistical bodies do not collect production in

121、formation granular enough to calculate the size on the valve market.As a result,for these countries we source the data on more aggregated sectors directly from the statistical bodies and then assume that export patterns are an acceptable proxy for domestic production patterns.Specifically,for each o

122、f the valve product types,we do the following:Calculate valves share of total exports in the more aggregated“General purpose machinery”sector of which valves are a part(NACE 28.1,parts of NAICS 332 and 333).Apply this export share to our estimates of production in the“General purpose machinery”secto

123、r to derive an estimate of the value of valve production.Countries whose domestic production is marginal or zero For these countries(which include the majority of countries covered)we simply assume that exports equal production since these countries provide a negligible contribution to the overall g

124、lobal valve market.Thus,apparent consumption reduces to imports.Actuators As published data are not available for either trade or production of actuators,we have used a different approach to estimate actuator consumption.Following detailed discussions with industry players,it was concluded that actu

125、ator data were most likely included within the“other”valve category.We assume that in the absence of any published data,the EIF estimates are the best available.In order to maintain internal consistency with our own data,we applied the ratio of EIFs estimates for actuators to“other”valves+actuators

126、to our own initial estimates for“other”valves and deducted the resulting value from our“other”valves variable.As EIFs definition of“other”valves include check valves,we have also included check valves in this calculation although the deduction is only from“other”valves.Detailed examples Here we prov

127、ide one indicative example for each of the four production categories above to illustrate the methods and assumptions used to construct the data.We interchange between using 2015 and 2010 to illustrate the data.We refer to valves values as excluding Oleohydraulic/Pneumatic(O_P)transmission and parts

128、 unless otherwise specified.If readers require more detail on assumptions,we maintain a supplementary assumptions log that we would be happy to share with interested readers upon request.European country with domestic production(example:United Kingdom)As already noted,the UK import,and export data c

129、ome from Comtrade.This shows that the UK valve exports in 2015 were$2,428mn and imports were$2,250mn.Stripping out domestic valves results in exports at$1,826mn and imports amounting to$1,236mn.Production data comes from Eurostats Prodcom database.The raw value for 2015 for total valves was$1,488mn.

130、However,this figure implies that exports is more than production,which is impossible.Indeed,for some years of the UK data(and in other EU countries as well),production as measured by Prodcom is lower than exports measured by Comtrade,which is clearly incorrect as production must be at least as large

131、 as exports.(Possible exceptions would be trans-shipment hubs such as the Netherlands,where re-exports could be a factor,but re-exports from the UK are negligible).There are two main reasons why this might be the case:Robustness of survey-based data.Data collected via surveys(such as Prodcom)may mis

132、s producers or suffer from non-response and hence are less reliable than administrative data that collects information on all producers.Import and export data is more comprehensive in this sense since it measures the actual recorded value of goods that pass through customs,rather than surveys of com

133、panies on their exports.Data methodology Autumn 2024 Page 82 Differences in mapping.It could be the case that the mapping of Prodcom codes is different from the mapping of Comtrade codes,as these use different industrial classification systems.We compared Prodcom also provides trade data which we ca

134、n compare to the Comtrade data to test if our mapping is the same if the Prodcom trade numbers match the Comtrade numbers then our mapping must be equivalent.Running this comparison,we found an almost perfect equivalence between Comtrade and Prodcom trade data.Therefore,this discrepancy cannot be th

135、e result of mapping differences.To account for such discrepancies,we assume that the Comtrade data takes precedent as it is more robust than survey-based data of Procom and set production equals to exports.This gives our overall estimate for 2015 UK valves and actuators:$1,855mn-$1,826mn+$1,236mn=$1

136、,265mn.Non-European major/minor producers with additional data(example:United States)According to Comtrade data,in 2010 the US had exports equal to$5,535m for the total valve market.For 2010 imports,Comtrade records value for the US of$6,526mn.Stripping out domestic valves results in exports amounti

137、ng to$4,484mn and imports amounting to$5,177mn.The United States has additional information available on valve production from its Annual Survey of Manufactures(ASM).This survey provides granular information on valve production across subsegments as defined in the NAICS classification system.The ASM

138、 has very different categories compared to the HS classification from Comtrade(our lead data source).Since there is no complete correspondence table we need to make many different assumptions.We have used the following methods to verify that the decisions we have made about mappings are valid:The AS

139、M also has some trade data for some of the product categories.This allows us to check the ASM trade data against our Comtrade data.If they line up,this suggests that mappings are correct.From our Comtrade data,we can compute exports in the subsectors as a share of the total valve market.We would exp

140、ect to see similar,though not necessarily the same,shares in the Comtrade data as in the ASM data.We know that the overall export level for each valve subcategory must be less than the production value for each valve subsector.Thus,if a mapping yields several subcategories with exports greater than

141、production,we know there is an issue with the mapping.There are some imperfect,though useful,correspondence tables available that we have used to inform our mapping choices.Even with these checks allowing us to make judgements about whether our mapping is correct or not,it is impossible to know whet

142、her the mapping is exact,since surveys differ in the ways they ask for information which may imply that they under or overestimate the data relative to the Comtrade data.Where possible,we are happy to work with the associations and industry to correct the mapping if sensible.Though it is important t

143、o note that 100%confidence in the mapping is unlikely to be possible.Based on the bulleted methods described in the bullets above,the mapping is shown in the table below.1s and 2s indicate where an ASM code(shown in the rows)is used for one of our codes(shown in the columns)1s indicate a high-level

144、category,2s indicate a category that is part of V_Oth.If a given ASM code is used for multiple of our categories(i.e.a row has more than one non-zero entry)then it is split across our categories using Comtrade data.For example,the table shows that ASM code 332911W(“industrial valve manufacturing,nsk

145、,total”)contains parts of two of our categories:V_Pre and V_Oth.Therefore,the export values of these three categories from Comtrade are used to create shares adding to 100%-in this case for 2010 we have 5%and 95%respectively for V_Pre and V_Oth.These shares are then applied to the overall ASM value

146、for 332911W(which is$254m in 2010)to form three pieces:$12m and$242m respectively for V_Pre and V_Oth.These“pieces”,constructed for all the ASM categories,are summed over our categories(e.g.each of these pieces for V_Pre from all the ASM codes are added)to produce the final production values for eac

147、h of our categories.Data methodology Autumn 2024 Page 83 The result of this process is a set of production values for each valve subsector,the summation of which is the production value for the overall valve sector.In 2010,this value is$7,964mn(excluding parts and O_P valves).Correcting for the case

148、s where production is less than exports and combining this last value with the Comtrade trade data leaves us with apparent consumption for the US valves and actuators in 2010 of:$8,322mn$4,484mn+$5,177mn=$9,015mn.Non-European major/minor producers without additional data(example:China)The key assump

149、tion in our data methodology for China(and indeed all countries which lack detailed valve production data)that the share of valves in Chinese“general purpose machinery”(excl.“other general purpose machinery”;NACE code 28.1)for production is the same as that for exports(since we have export data we c

150、an rely on from Comtrade).This assumption breaks down into the following steps:Take Chinese valve exports as a share of wider Chinese“general purpose machinery”(NACE 28.1)exports.Apply this share to Chinas production of“general purpose machinery”(NACE 28.1)to derive an estimate of Chinas production

151、of valves.Using this approach gives an estimate for Chinese valve production(2015)of around$40,904mn(excluding parts and O_P valves).Chinese consumption is therefore around$38,829mn ASM LabelASM CodeV_PreV_O/PV_CheV_SafV_OthV_oth_gg V_oth_ball V_oth_bfly V_oth_plug V_oth_nucV_ParIndustrial valve man

152、ufacturing33291100000000000Gates,globes,angles,straightway(Y-type)check,stop and check,cross,3-and 4-way,etc.332911100100100000Industrial valves for water works and municipal equipment(IBBM,AWWA,and UL)332911310001000000Industrial ball valves(all metals,pressures,and types),including manual and powe

153、r-operated,on-off valves332911500001020000Industrial butterfly valves(all metals,pressures,and types),including manual and power-operated,on-off valves332911700001002000Industrial plug valves(all metals,pressures,and types),including lubricated,cylindrical eccentric,and sleeve-lined33291190000100020

154、0All other miscellaneous industrial valves332911B10011000000Nuclear valves(N-stamp only)332911D00011000020Automatic regulating and control valves and parts(excluding nuclear),power-operated,designed for modulating(throttling)service332911F10000000001Solenoid-operated valves and parts,excluding nucle

155、ar and fluid power transfer332911H00001000001Industrial valve manufacturing,nsk,total332911W10001000000Fluid power valve and hose fitting manufacturing33291200000000000Aerospace-type hydraulic fluid power valves332912100000000000Aerospace-type pneumatic fluid power valves332912300000000000Nonaerospa

156、ce-type hydraulic directional control valves332912501000000000Nonaerospace-type hydraulic valves,excluding directional control332912700000000000Nonaerospace-type pneumatic directional control valves332912901000000000Nonaerospace-type pneumatic excluding directional control valves332912B00000000000Pa

157、rts for fluid power valves332912D00000000001Fluid power valve and hose fitting manufacturing,nsk,total332912W00000000000 Data methodology Autumn 2024 Page 84 Earlier analysis,detailed in our 2018 report,show that although large,this estimate is a plausible one for the Chinese market.Discrepancies wi

158、th other estimates are likely due to the existence of a very large number of relatively small Chinese valve manufacturers that are not detectable using the bottom-up data gathering approach used by EIF and other market studies.However,based on discussions with BVAA and VMA member companies,we have c

159、oncluded that these smaller manufacturers are of limited relevance,and in fact may distort the size of the Chinese market as understood by industry stakeholders.Therefore,we have estimated the portion which only includes large producers.It is this smaller estimate of the“addressable”market that we u

160、se in this report.In order to estimate the share of total valve production attributed to large valve manufacturers,we have used data from the China Statistical Yearbook which show the share of total industrial revenues attributed to manufacturers with a revenue over 5mn yuan.In 2015,this share was a

161、round 40%.Our new estimate for production in the addressable market is therefore 0.4*US$40,904mn.Using the same trade data as for total Chinese consumption,addressable Chinese consumption for valves and actuators in 2015 is$14,033mn,considerably smaller than the total market and closer to other esti

162、mates.It should be noted that in recent years this share has risen sharply.We attribute this to the closure of inefficient capacity,typically of smaller firms,in energy-intensive sectors such as steel.As this is not a factor relevant to the valve market,we have set the ratio flat at the 2014 level b

163、ut will review this each year.Non-producers(example:Saudi Arabia)For“non-producers”(i.e.countries that have negligible exports of valves),we assume that production is equal to exports since their domestic production is so small as not to have a strong impact on the global valve market.In the case of

164、 Saudi Arabia this implies:According to Comtrade data,in 2010 Saudi Arabias valve exports(excluding domestic valves)were$10mn and valve imports(excluding domestic valves)were$537mn.Production is set to equal exports thus valve production for 2010 is$10mn.Therefore,valve and actuator apparent consumption in 2010 equals$10mn-$10mn+537mn=$537mn.