2020年印尼可再生能源關稅和激勵措施：回顧與建議 - 亞洲開發銀行（英文版）（74頁）.pdf

1、ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK RENEWABLE ENERGY TARIFFS AND INCENTIVES IN INDONESIA REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS SEPTEMBER 2020 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK RENEWABLE ENERGY TARIFFS AND INCENTIVES IN INDONESIA REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS SEPTEMBER 2020 Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) 202

2、0 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444 www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2020. ISBN 978-92-9262-323-4 (print); 978-92-9262-324-1 (electronic); 978-92-9262-325-8 (ebook) Publication Stock No. TCS200

3、254 DOI: http:/dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS200254 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies ofthe Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of t

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7、openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed toanother source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a resul

8、t of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketingadb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish toobtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use theADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications

9、 may be found at http:/www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Note: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars. Cover design by Editha Creus. This report was prepared by PT. Castlerock and Economic Consulting Associates for the Ministry of Finance of Indonesia. Contents Tables and Figure

10、siv Abbreviationsv Weights and Measuresvi Currency Equivalentsvii Acknowledgmentsviii Key Recommendationsix Executive Summaryxi 1. Introduction and Background1 1.1Purpose1 1.2Scope1 1.3Structure 2 2. Impediments to Renewable Energy Projects3 2.1Overview 3 2.2PriceCost Gap and Need for Subsidies 5 2.

11、3International Approaches to Delivering Subsidies9 2.4Options for Delivering Budget Subsidies in Indonesia10 3. Budget Subsidy Mechanism13 3.1Legal Basis13 3.2Governance13 3.3Budgeting for Subsidies14 3.4Auction-Based Renewable Energy Project Prices15 3.5Renewable Energy Project Prices Using Cost Es

12、timation16 3.6Economic Value Ceiling19 3.7Financial Avoided Cost21 3.8Auditing Subsidies22 3.9Regulatory Requirements23 3.10 Geothermal Subsidy Estimates24 3.11Summary of the Mechanism26 4. Implementation27 4.1Budget Subsidy Implementation27 4.2Addressing Other Key Impediments28 Appendix 1:Indonesia

13、s Renewable Energy Framework31 Appendix 2:Illustrative Subsidy Calculations45 Tables 1:Current Renewable Energy Pricing (PERMEN 50/2017, amended by 53/2018)6 2:Summary Assessment of Options for Subsidies12 3:Summary of Budget Support Mechanism26 A1.1:Renewable Penetration Targets and Load Forecasts3

14、3 A2.1: Selecting the Alternative Supply (JavaBali Example)49 A2.2:Calculation of Avoided Direct Costs (Geothermal Against Coal)50 A2.3:Estimated Economic Benefits (Geothermal on JavaBali Grid)53 A2.4:Summary of Geothermal Cost Estimates54 A2.5:Additional Geothermal Capacity Deployment and Subsidies

15、58 Figures 1:Key Impediments to Renewable Energy Development in Indonesia4 2:PriceCost Gap for Selected Renewable Energy Technologies8 3:Comparison of feed-in tariffs versus Production Cost Model18 4:Economic Benefits Example (JavaBali Geothermal Replacing Coal)20 5:PLN Implementation of Geothermal

16、Projects Against Plan25 6:Actions to Address Key Impediments28 7:Responsibilities for Addressing Key Impediments29 A1.1:Indonesias Energy Policy and Planning Framework31 A1.2:Renewable Power Capacity in Selected Countries33 A1.3:Share of Variable Renewable Energy in Selected Countries34 A1.4:Actual

17、and Planned Hydro Capacity, 2006202835 A1.5:Actual and Planned Geothermal Capacity, 2006202835 A1.6:Uptake of Renewable Energy Depends on Six Factors36 A1.7:PLN Sales Forecasts and Committed and Planned Capacity Additions37 A2.1: JavaBali Generation Mix, 2019202848 A2.2:Economic Benefits and Financi

18、al Costs (JavaBali Geothermal Replacing Coal)56 A2.3:Geothermal Supply Curve57 Tables and Figures Abbreviations Names for Indonesian entities and legal documents are given in both English and Indonesian on first use. Subsequent references use the Indonesian acronym. An exception is made for the Mini

19、stry of Finance where the English acronym is used given its familiarity. ADBAsian Development Bank APBNAnggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (State Budget) BOOTbuildownoperatetransfer BPPbiaya pokok produksi (production cost) CCGTcombined-cycle gas turbine BPDLHBadan Pengelola Dana Lingkungan Hidup

20、 (Environmental Fund Management Agency) DPRDewan Perwakilan Rakyat (House of Representatives) ESDMEnergi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources) FITfeed-in tariff KENKebijakan Energi Nasional (National Energy Policy) IPPIndependent power producer KEPMENKeputusan Menteri (M

21、inisterial Decree) MOFMinistry of Finance PERMENPeraturan Menteri (Ministerial Regulation) PERPRESPeraturan Presiden (Presidential Regulation) PLNPerusahaan Listrik Negara (State Electricity Company) PMKPeraturan Menteri Keuangan (Minister of Finance Regulation) PPApower purchase agreement PPPpublic

22、private partnership PSOpublic service obligation PT SMIPT Sarana Multi Infrastruktur PVphotovoltaic RErenewable energy RUENRencana Umum Energi Nasional (National Energy Plan) RUPTLRencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik (Electricity Supply Business Plan) SB/SOSingle buyer/system operator SOEstate-ow

23、ned enterprise Weights and Measures GW gigawatt GWhgigawatt-hour kWkilowatt kWhkilowatt-hour MWmegawatt tCO2e ton of carbon dioxide equivalent TWhterawatt-hour Currency Equivalents (as of 7 July 2020) Currency unitrupiah (Rp) $1.00 Rp1.00 = = Rp14,419.80 $0.000069 Acknowledgments This work was condu

24、cted under the technical supervision of Florian Kitt, energy specialist, Energy Division, Southeast Asia Department (SERD), of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Additional guidance and support was provided by Andrew Jeffries (director, Energy Division, SERD, ADB). The report was written by William D

25、erbyshire (consultant, ADB) and Mike Crosetti (consultant, ADB), with contributions from Kelsey Yates (consultant, ADB). The team wishes to thank Yongping Zhai (chief, Energy Sector Group, Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB) as the reports peer reviewer. The team wishes to th

26、ank the Indonesian Ministry of Finance, PT Sarana Multi Infrastruktur, and development partners for their inputs and discussions during the preparation of the report. The team also thanks colleagues from the Indonesia Resident Mission and the Department of Communications for their support. Director

27、Andrew Jeffries, Energy Division, SERD Team leader Florian Kitt, energy specialist, SERD Team member Jeffrey Almera, senior operations assistant, SERD Peer reviewer Yongping Zhai, chief, Energy Sector Group, Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department Key Recommendations T his report propo

28、ses a renewable energy (RE) subsidy mechanism to close the gap between the costs of renewable power and conventional power generation, taking into account the additional economic benefits of renewable power for Indonesia. The subsidy should be calculated as the difference between the cost of supply

29、from a given renewable power project and the financial cost that the Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN, State Electricity Company) would have otherwise incurred for generation on that system in the absence of the renewable project, i.e., PLNs “avoided cost.” To ensure that the Government of Indonesia d

30、oes not overpay for renewable subsidies, the cost of renewable supply would be capped at its economic value, which is calculated as the economic avoided cost plus the social benefits of externalities. If Indonesia can adopt international best practice for RE planning, procurement, contracting, and r

31、isk mitigation, then the financial costs of RE development will decline accordingly. Until now the government has not adequately taken into account the dependency of RE costs on the broader regulatory and commercial environment. The implementation of this subsidy should therefore be part of a broade

32、r interministerial electricity policy reform program. Mechanism ComponentRecommended Approach Legal basis Compensate PLN for a public service obligation to procure renewable generation to meet national targets. Governance PLN prepares annual subsidy estimate for review and approval by the Energi dan

33、 Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources), the Ministry of Finance, and ultimately the Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR, House of Representatives) for budgeting in the Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN, State Budget). “True-up” at the end of the year for difference

34、s between forecast and actual (audited) RE project prices and volumes. Subsidy calculation Calculate individually for each RE project and then sum to obtain the total annual RE subsidy estimate. The subsidy is the difference between the RE project price and PLNs financial cost savings from the RE pr

35、oject (as estimated at the date of power purchase agreement PPA signature) multiplied by PLNs actual purchases (or production in the case of PLNs own plant). A margin is added to the RE subsidy, consistent with legal requirements and current practice with the tariff subsidy. A substantially lower ma

36、rgin than the prevailing 7% margin applied to the tariff subsidy in the order of 0.5% is recommended, consistent with the administrative and financial costs PLN actually incurs. x Key Recommendations Mechanism ComponentRecommended Approach Subsidy calculation (continued) Cap on PPA Price If the PPA

37、price results from a competitive tender, then the RE project cost used for subsidy calculations is capped at the economic value. If there is no competitive tender, then the allowed RE project price is capped at the lower threshold of the estimated production cost or economic value, calculated separa

38、tely for each RE technology and PLN grid. This price serves as the PPA price and is not subject to further negotiation by PLN or government. The government can also apply a cap on total subsidies payable to maintain fiscal prudence. RE projects would be developed up to this cap. Implementation issue

39、s Amend existing ESDM regulations to allow PLN to sign PPAs at prices above the biaya pokok produksi (BPP, production cost) -based cap, if a subsidy is available. The existing ESDM regulations will also need to be amended to replace the use of BPP with estimated financial cost savings and, ideally,

40、to allow the use of auctions as a preferred procurement mechanism. Background and Context Despite the availability of financing and the existence of tax incentives for renewable power development, Indonesia is failing to meet its renewable energy (RE) targets. There are multiple causes of this failu

41、re, and other impediments will also need to be addressed. Among these are (i) inadequate power system planning and grid management practices; (ii) unbalanced power purchase agreements that adversely affect bankability; (iii) counterproductive procurement and contracting processes, negotiation practi

42、ces, buildownoperate transfer (BOOT) requirements, and change-of-ownership restrictions; (iv) high local content requirements prior to establishment of a market large enough to achieve domestic manufacturing economies of scale; and (v) limitations on foreign investment. The relative importance of th

43、ese impediments depends on the particular renewable generation technology, but among the most damaging are the disincentives or outright prohibitions against the State Electricity Company (PLN) purchasing renewable power at prices higher than conventional alternatives. The Ministry of Finance (MOF)

44、is particularly interested in accelerating geothermal power development as it is a predominant source of renewable energy in Indonesia, representing 44% of the nations actual renewable power production in 2018 and 42% of PLNs 2028 renewable power generation forecast. It is the focus of this report.

45、Current regulations cap the price paid for geothermal purchases outside of Java and Sumatera at PLNs generation production cost (BPP), or average accounting cost of production over the past year on those systems. However, most of Indonesias geothermal potential is found on the islands of Java and Su

46、matera. In principle, prevailing regulation allows PLN to freely negotiate the price of geothermal power with developers on these islands. In reality, however, the caps on PLNs own retail tariffs provide a strong disincentive for PLN to purchase anything but the lowest-cost source of power. Under cu

47、rrent conditions on PLNs large power systems, coal-fired generation typically has far lower financial costs than geothermal, and is therefore PLNs preferred candidate. This report proposes an RE subsidy mechanism to close the gap between the costs of renewable power and conventional power generation

48、, taking into account the additional economic benefits of renewable power for Indonesia. Executive Summary xii Executive Summary Closing the PriceCost Gap The Government of Indonesia has not adjusted PLNs retail tariffs since 2017 to help ensure the affordability of electricity. The government also

49、capped the price of renewables to help preserve PLNs financial viability under these fixed tariffs. As tariff affordability and the financial health of PLN will continue to be major concerns of the government, there is a need to close the gap between prices and costs through a renewable energy subsidy to PLN. This would be consistent with both Law 19/2003 on State-Owned Enterprises and Law 30/2007 on Energy. The subsidy should be calculated as the difference between the cost of supply from a given renewable power project and the financial cost that P