2019-2020年亞洲經濟一體化報告：人口結構變化、生產力和技術的作用 - 亞洲開發銀行（英文版）（247頁）.pdf

1、 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila. Philippines www.adb.org Asian Economic Integration Report 2019/2020 Demographic Change, Productivity, and the Role of Technology The Asian Economic Integration Report is an annual review of economic cooperation and integration

2、 that covers the 49 members of ADB in Asia and the Pacific. It documents progress made in trade and global value chains, cross-border investment, financial integration, the movement of people, and subregional cooperation. The theme chapter of this years report explores the potential of technology to

3、 boost productivity in aging economies. It also discusses how innovations can help turn demographic challenges into opportunities. About the Asian Development Bank ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to

4、eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members 49 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK DEMOgraphic changE, prOD

5、uctivity, anD thE rOlE Of tEchnOlOgy nOvEMBEr 2019 ASIAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION REPORT 2019/2020 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK DEMOgraphic changE, prODuctivity, anD thE rOlE Of tEchnOlOgy nOvEMBEr 2019 ASIAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION REPORT 2019/2020 creative commons attribution 3.0 igO license (cc By 3.0 igO) 20

6、19 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444 www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2019. ISBN 978-92-9261-856-8 (print), 978-92-9261-857-5 (electronic) Publication Stock No. TCS190461-2 DOI: http:/dx.doi.or

7、g/10.22617/TCS190461-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies ofthe Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in th

8、is publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of o

9、r reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” inthis document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)

10、https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound bytheterms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions andterms of use at https:/www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC lic

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12、terial. Please contact pubsmarketingadb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish toobtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use theADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http:/

13、www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars, unless otherwise stated. All masthead photos are from ADB. ADB recognizes “China” as the Peoples Republic of China; “Hongkong” as Hong Kong, China; “Korea” as the Republic of Korea; and “Vietnam” as

14、 Viet Nam. Cover design by Erickson Mercado. Printed on recycled paper iii Tables, Figures, and Boxes .v Foreword .x Acknowledgments .xi Definitions .xii Abbreviations .xiii Highlights .xv 1. TRAdE ANd GlObAl VAluE ChAINS 1 Recent Trends in Asias Trade .1 Asias Intraregional Trade .3 Progress of Glo

15、bal and Regional Value Chains .5 Trade Conflict and Its Potential Impact .11 Updates on Regional Trade Policy .22 The Role of FTAs in Making Trade Work for All .27 References .32 ANNEX 1a: Impact of Technology on GVC Exports .34 2. CROSS-bORdER INVESTMENT 36 Trends and Patterns of Foreign Direct Inv

16、estment in Asia .36 Outward Foreign Direct Investment .47 References .50 3. FINANCIAl INTEGRATION 51 Asias Cross-Border Financial Assets and Liabilities .51 Outward Portfolio Investment .52 Inward Portfolio Investment .56 Subregional Portfolio Investment .58 Bank Holdings .63 Analysis Using Price In

17、dicators .69 References .76 4. MOVEMENT OF PEOPlE 78 Remittances .78 International Tourism and the Movement of Visitors .82 International Tourism Receipts .89 References .95 cOntEnts contentsiv 5. SubREGIONAl COOPERATION INITIATIVES 97 Central and West Asia: Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperatio

18、n Program .97 Southeast Asia: Greater Mekong Subregion Program .102 East Asia: Support for RCI Initiatives under CAREC and GMS Subregional Programs .106 and Knowledge-Sharing Activities South Asia: South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation .109 The Pacific: Partnering with the Private Sector to Ex

19、pand Energy Access .114 The Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation and Integration Index .116 Role of Economic Integration in Growth and Development .118 References .123 6. ThEME ChAPTER: dEMOGRAPhIC ChANGE, PROduCTIVITy, 126 ANd ThE ROlE OF TEChNOlOGy Introduction .126 Population Aging in Asia .128 Work

20、force Aging, Productivity, and the Role of Technology .143 Technology Options for Graying Asia .155 Assessing the Technology Needs of Countries Based on Age-Education Profiles .171 Turning the Demographic Headwind to a Tailwind-Policy Considerations .181 Background Papers .195 References .196 ANNEX

21、6a: Demographical Change, Technological Advance, and Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis .205 ANNEX 6b: Data and Methodology Used in Country Case Studies .208 7. STATISTICAl APPENdIx 209 Regional Groupings .209 Table Descriptions .209 v taBlEs, figurEs, anD BOXEs TAblES 1.1 Asian FTAs with Labor Provis

22、ions 28 2.1 Top 10 Global and Asian FDI Destinations 37 2.2 Top Sources of FDI in AsiaGreenfield and M they will be healthier, more educated, and more likely to stay at work longer. Higher educational attainment across the region also suggests a steady supply of quality human capital. As such, the c

23、hanging population structures and workforce profiles open many windows of opportunity to gain from as long as regional economies design appropriate policy responses. Technological adoption and policy reforms for age-friendly employment will be key. As irreversible as demographic aging is, its econom

24、ic consequences are not preordained if appropriate technologies and policies are adopted. To maintain high productivity growth in graying Asia, labor market opportunities and challenges are unique for each economy. Different types of technologies can be leveraged to make labor market participation m

25、ore adaptive and flexible given the populations age and education profiles. Policies that facilitate the movement of capital, labor, and technology could also help individual countries deal with demographic transition. The regions demographic diversity offers opportunities to discuss the potential r

26、egional cooperation in education, skilled labor, and talent. yasuyuki Sawada Chief Economist and Director General Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department Asian Development Bank xi The Asian Economic Integration Report (AEIR) 2019/2020 was prepared by the Regional Cooperation and Integration Division (ERCI) of the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation