國際勞工組織（ILO）：COVID-19期間解決亞太地區青年就業危機（英文版）（33頁）.pdf

1、 Tackling the COVID-19 youth employment crisis in Asia and the Pacific Tackling the COVID-19 youth employment crisis in Asia and the Pacific Co-publication of the Asian Development Bank and the International Labour Organization Copyright International Labour Organization and Asian Development Bank 2

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12、n be found at: www.adb.org/publications Cover photo: UN Women/Fahad Abdullah Kaizer iii Tackling the COVID-19 youth employment crisis in Asia and the Pacific Contents List of boxes Box 1.Why are young people disproportionately affected by recessions? 9 Box2. Lessons from past crises: how do recessio

13、ns affect long-term job prospects of 15 young people? Box3. Lessons from past crises: impacts on youth self-employment 16 Box4. Lessons from past crises: impacts on human development 18 Box5. Lessons from past crises: impacts on school-to-work transitions 19 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS V KEY MESSAGES VI OVERVI

14、EW VII 1.INTRODUCTION1 2.YOUTHANDTHELABOURMARKETINASIAANDTHEPACIFICBEFORE2 THECOVID-19PANDEMIC 3.IMPACTOFTHECOVID-19CRISISONYOUTHEMPLOYMENTPRELIMINARYEVIDENCE7 3.1 Job disruptions 7 3.2 Disruptions to education and training 16 3.3 School-to-work transition 18 4.ESTIMATED YOUTH JOB LOSSES AND YOUTH U

15、NEMPLOYMENT FORTHEYEAR202020 5.POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS TO TACKLE THE REGIONAL YOUTH EMPLOYMENTCRISIS23 5.1 Stimulating economy and youth employment laying the foundations 23 for inclusive recovery 5.2 Designing well-targeted active labour market programmes 24 5.3 Embedding cross-cutting priorities in

16、to policies 26 REFERENCES28 ANNEX:METHODOLOGYFORESTIMATINGYOUTHJOBLOSSESANDUNEMPLOYMENT31 iv Tackling the COVID-19 youth employment crisis in Asia and the Pacific List of figures Figure 1. Overview of the labour market for youth in Asia and the Pacific, 2019 3 Figure 2. Youth labour force participat

17、ion rate by sex, 2019 3 Figure 3. Young people not in employment, education, or training, by sex, 2019 5 Figure 4. Youth and adult unemployment rate, by sex, 2019 6 Figure 5. Changes in youth unemployment rates before and after the global 6 financial crisis Figure 6. Decomposition of working-hour lo

18、sses for youth (1524) and adults (25+), 9 Republic of Korea, April 2020 Figure 7. Change in youth unemployment rate by sex, fourth quarter 2019 to 11 first quarter 2020 Figure 8. Youth and adult unemployment rates and change in rates from 12 April 2019 to April 2020 (percentage point): Australia, Ja

19、pan and the Republic of Korea Figure 9. Distribution of employment by impact level in Asia and the Pacific, 2020 estimates 13 List of tables Table 1. Working-hour losses, Asia and the Pacific, first and second quarters of 2020 8 Table 2. Youth and adult unemployment rates, 2019 and first quarter 202

20、0 10 Table 3. Asia and the Pacific youth employed in hard-hit sectors, 2020 estimates 14 Table 4. Youth job losses and unemployment rate, estimates, 2020 21 Table 5. Distribution of a countrys youth job loss in seven sectors (% of total youth job loss) 22 Box6. Young entrepreneurs innovations during

21、 the COVID-19 pandemic 26 Box 7. Examples of youth associations and networks supporting the COVID-19 youth 27 employment response v Tackling the COVID-19 youth employment crisis in Asia and the Pacific Acknowledgements This research project was led by Chris Morris, ADB and Felix Weidenkaff, ILO. The

22、 ILO technical team were: Sara Elder and Felix Weidenkaff (lead authors) and Fernanda Barcia de Mattos, Yamei Du and Nadia Feldkircher (data and research assistance). The ADB technical team were: Paul Vandenberg and Helen Osborne (lead authors) and Jose Corpus, Glo Guevarra, Jade Laranjo, Reizle Pla

23、titas and Ponce Samaniego (data and research assistance). The report benefited from technical inputs and comments provided by Ashwani Aggarwal, Jonas Bausch, Kee Beom Kim, Wade Bromley, Cheryl Cheuk Yu, Patrick Daru, Drew Gardiner, Amir Jilani, Steve Kapsos, Arun Kumar, Julien Magnat, Makiko Matsumo

24、to, Yves Perardel, Ana Podjanin, Susana Puerto Gonzalez, Akiko Sakamoto, Joni Simpson, Olga Strietska-Ilina, Sher Verick, Wendy Walker and Meredith Wyse. Laetitia Dard, Monrudee Sucharitakul, Carina Uchida and Jiraporn Wongpaithoon provided communications and administrative support. Jill de Villa wa

25、s the editor and Nattawarath Hengviriyapanich organized the graphic design and layout. vi Tackling the COVID-19 youth employment crisis in Asia and the Pacific Key messages Young peoples employment prospects in Asia and the Pacific are severely challenged as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Youth

26、will be hit harder than adults in the immediate crisis and also will bear higher longer-term economic and social costs. Before the pandemic, young people were already facing challenges in the labour market. These are worsened by the COVID-19 crisis, and its multiple effects threaten to create a “loc

27、kdown generation” that will feel the weight of this crisis for a long time. Nearly half of young workers in the region are employed in the four sectors hit hardest by the crisis. This is one of the reasons that young people face greater labour market disruption and job loss than adults due to COVID-

28、19. And it is compounded by forced suspension of education and training, which will affect youths transitions to and within labour markets and could result in “scarring effects”, as seen in previous crises. Youth unemployment rates in the region are rising quickly. Projections through the end of 202

29、0 in 13 countries show sizable jumps, with youth unemployment rates doubling the 2019 rate in some cases. To address the youth employment crisis, governments in the region urgently need to adopt large-scale and targeted responses, centered on (1) comprehensive labour market policies including wage s

30、ubsidies and public employment programmes, and (2) minimizing the impacts on young students of disrupting their education and training. Effective COVID-19 mitigation measures will ensure that the poorest and most vulnerable youth are reached and that young people are meaningfully engaged in policy a

31、nd social dialogue. Prioritizing youth employment and maximizing youth productivity in the COVID-19 recovery process will improve Asia and the Pacifics future prospects for inclusive and sustainable growth, demographic transition and social stability. When young people feel empowered to earn a livin

32、g through fulfilling work, and their energy, creativity and talents are nurtured, they can take up their roles as active, engaged citizens. This contributes to a positive cycle of economic growth, investment and social justice. vii Tackling the COVID-19 youth employment crisis in Asia and the Pacifi

33、c Overview The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered a massive disruption of labour markets that has had disproportionate impacts on youth employment. Through lockdowns and travel restrictions, demand has slumped and many businesses have been forced to close or cut back operations, w

34、ith serious impacts on workers. Nearly 220 million young workers (1524 years) in the region are particularly vulnerable given their short tenure on the job, their employment in especially hard-hit sectors and their tendency to earn livelihoods in unsecure informal jobs. The usual challenges of youth

35、 employment are heightened in economic crises. Given their relative lack of experience, young people face higher rates of unemployment than adults (25 and older) regardless of the business cycle. Young people are also more likely than adults to work in less-secure, lower-wage employment, frequently

36、with limited legal rights, social protection, and representation. The current COVID-19 crisis brings the vulnerabilities of youth labour markets to the fore, but with the further complication of disrupted education and training pathways. Young people will be hit harder than adults in the immediate c

37、risis and also bear higher longer-term economic and social costs. Pre-existing vulnerabilities of youth in the labour market will be exacerbated, with negative consequences for intergenerational poverty and inequality. The crisis negatively impacts the prospects for youth through three channels. You

38、ng people are experiencing (1) job disruptions from reduced working hours and layoffs, (2) disruptions in education and training as they try to complete studies, and (3) difficulties transitioning from school to work and moving between jobs. The crisis will affect young people differently depending

39、on their situation in the labour market. The scale of the impact will depend on the length of the crisis, the choices of governments in the socioeconomic recovery, and the capacity of institutions to implement effective measures. YouthinAsiaandthePacificfacedachallenginglabourmarketsituationbeforeth

40、ecrisis.Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, young people faced numerous constraints in their access to decent work. The regional youth unemployment rate was 13.8 per cent in 2019 compared with 3.0 per cent for adults and the global youth unemployment rate of 13.6 per cent. More than 160 million youth

41、 (24 per cent of the population) were not in employment, education or training in 2019, and the regions rates have been rising primarily as a result of the exclusion of young women who face an excessive burden of unpaid household and care work. Four in five young workers in the region were engaged i

42、n informal employment a higher share than among adults and one in four young workers was living in conditions of extreme or moderate poverty. At the onset of the crisis, nearly half of young workers in the region were employed in the four sectors destined to be hardest hit by the recession. These se

43、ctors wholesale and retail trade and repair, manufacturing, rental and business services, and accommodation and food services employed nearly half of all young people (more than 100 million) working in Asia and the Pacific at the onset of the crisis. Young women are overrepresented in three of the f

44、our highly impacted sectors, particularly in accommodation and food services. Thevulnerabilitiesofyouthinlabourmarketswerealreadyvisibleinthefirsthalfof2020astheCOVID-19 crisis unfolded. Youth unemployment rates jumped in the first quarter of 2020 from the last quarter of 2019 in all economies for w

45、hich data are available. Compared with the first quarter of 2019, the youth unemployment rate increased in six of nine economies that have quarterly data available: Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, and Viet Nam, as well as in Hong Kong, China, which showed the largest increase of 3 percentage

46、points. All economies that experienced increases showed sharper jumps in youth rates than in adult rates. The reduction in working hours is unprecedented. Working hours across the region dropped 7.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 from the fourth quarter 2019. The loss of working hours increas

47、ed to 13.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2020. While the regional figure is not disaggregated by age, evidence from two countries the Republic of Korea and Thailand showed young workers experienced a significantly larger loss of hours than adults. viii Tackling the COVID-19 youth employment cris

48、is in Asia and the Pacific Job loss among youth will continue throughout 2020 and could result in youth unemployment rates doubling. Between 10 and 15 million youth jobs (full-time equivalent) may be lost across 13 countries in Asia and the Pacific in 2020. These estimates are based on the expected

49、fall in output and consequent decrease in labour demand for the year relative to a non-COVID-19 scenario. The estimates include large countries, such as India and Indonesia, as well as small ones such as Fiji and Nepal. The projected rise in youth unemployment rates varies considerably across the 13 countries, but increases are expected for all countries. In Cambodia, Fiji, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines and Thailand, youth unemployment rates are expected to reach at least double the 2019 estimates even in a scenario