埃森哲：COVID-19對汽車行業的影響報告-埃森哲（英文版）.pdf

1、NOWNEXT What to do Now, What to do NextCOVID-19: Impact on the Impact on the Automotive Industry: Automotive Industry: Navigating the Human and Business Impact of COVID-19 May 2020 01 Covid-19 External shock: One of the first pandemics of its kind that is forcing the automotive industry to re-think

2、its business 02 The Disrupted Automotive Value Chain What is the impact of Covid-19 on the automotive value chain 03 Rapid Response and Key Imperatives How to address current disruptions and prepare for the new normal Disclaimer: Facts and figures as of March, 24th2020 3 In many respects, the automo

3、tive industry is essential for the global economy and the resulting prosperity: Links to other industries: The automotive industry is a critical component of economic growth with extensive interconnections to upstream (e.g. steel, chemicals, textiles) and downstream industries (e.g. repair, mobility

4、 services). Employment in the automotive industry: With nearly 14 million people employed in Europe and 8 million in the US, as well as approximately 5 million in China, the figures highlight the importance of the sector. Economy: The turnover earned by the automotive industry exceeds 7% of EU GDP,

5、3-3.5% of the overall GDP in the US and 10% in China. Although it is currently a difficult time, the OEMs that are able to mobilize their COVID-19 response and take swift actions will be in a better position post-event and more resilient going forward. Global economies are heavily dependent on the a

6、utomotive industry Copyright 2020 Accenture All rights reserved. Sources: Accenture Research analysis based on European Automobile Manufacturers Association, Stats.Gov.Cnh 4 The epidemic places even more pressure on the automotive industry Copyright 2020 Accenture All rights reserved. The automotive

7、 industry is disrupted by the four megatrends connected, autonomous, electric and shared driving, causing an unprecedented technology and business model transformation. Amid this transformation, the COVID-19 outbreak is putting additional stress on the industry. After initial supply and manufacturin

8、g disruptions, the industry is now experiencing a demand shock with uncertain recovery timeline due to shelter-in-place regulations. With limited room to cut fixed costs, some OEMs have low liquidity to power through a long period of missing revenues. Decreasesin market capitalization will likely ac

9、celerate industry consolidation and without securingadditional funding, some players risk going out of business. Changes in customer behavior, such as different mobility preferences and online shopping expectations, might remain after the crisis. To deal with the disruption, businesses need to execu

10、te actions over three timelines: a) A fastresponse to navigate the emerging situation with a focus on protecting people b) A resetof current business activities to adapt to new financial realities c) A renewalof strategic plans to emerge stronger after the crisis 5 What automotive expertsare saying

11、Copyright 2020 Accenture All rights reserved. Disclaimer: Facts and figures as of March, 19th2020 Prof.Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer Director of Germanys Center for Automotive Research PROFIT DILEMMA “The Western European automobile market will need about 10 years to reach the size of 2019 again.” Kristin

12、Dziczek Vice President at the Center for Automotive Research SUPPLY DILEMMA “Even a disruption of one part of the supply chain could depress some U.S. auto production. We need all the parts to make a car, we cant do it with 99.9%” IHS Markit Analysis SALES DILEMMA “The global auto industry is expect

13、ed to witness an unprecedented and almost instant stalling of demand in 2020, with global auto sales forecast to plummet more than 12% from 2019, to 78.8 million units, .” Marco Opipari Fidentiis Automotive Research Analyst DEMAND DILEMMA “The real problem is on the demand side, people are not buyin

14、g cars now, and sales volumes are expected to be very bad in March, with a real impact on automakers earnings” 01 Covid-19 External shock: One of the first pandemics of its kind that is forcing the automotive industry to re-think its business 02 The Disrupted Automotive Value Chain What is the impac

15、t of Covid-19 on the automotive value chain 03 Rapid Response and Key Imperatives How to address current disruptions and prepare for the new normal Along the whole automotive value chain: Four major challenges amid the COVID-19 crisis Copyright 2020 Accenture All rights reserved. COVID-19 HRFINANCEC

16、ORE IT 1. Limited Supply of Vehicle Parts Starting in China, suppliers around the globe placed production lines in quarantine or shut them down completely. Also, legal and trade restrictions, such as closed borders, increased the shortage of required parts and limited distribution of supplies. 4. Dr

17、op in New Vehicle Sales Politically enforced measures to contain the virus, such as implementing curfews, closing factories, offices, dealerships and the resulting dismissals of short-time workers, as well as the fear of a recession, are likely to lead to a decrease in sales numbers. 2. Shut down of

18、 Manufacturing A limited parts supply and a just-in-time production strategy, coupled with quarantine measures and a reduced workforce, lead OEMs to shut down their production. This is enhanced by the need to secure liquidity and reduce overproduction due to the decrease in sales. 3. Declining Worki

19、ng Capital/ Liquidity A decline in cash inflow resulted from the drop in demand while short-term liabilities and salaries still need to be paid. Cash reserves are likely to be exhausted within a few months. SALES AFTERSALES MARKETING FINANCING PURCHASING SUPPLY CHAIN ENGINEERING MANUFACTURING 8 Supp

20、ly: “Just-in-Time” production, global networks and lean inventory make the supply chain vulnerable to disruption Copyright 2020 Accenture All rights reserved. WHAT IS HAPPENING WHATS NEXT Recovery of the auto supply chain will take time, even with a multi-supplier scenario and dependence on various

21、factors, such as regulations, availability of workforce and infrastructure, timely certification for safety parts, etc. Eventual recovery should lead to a rebound in imports and exports. However, the re-start will be complex, cost-intensive and will take time due to the need to synchronize productio

22、n across the supply chain, i.e. due to just-in-time production. The trend to decrease over- dependence on one country will become more prominent. OEMs learning from the crisis enforce dual sourcing strategies. Also flexibility of production will be increased to shift the production from one plant to

23、 another. Sources: Accenture Research, Reuters, CNN, Automotive Logistics, Jetro; 1) ShipMatrix, March 16th 2) IHS Markit ( 11.7 3.2 2 1.7 1.2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 USAJapanMexicoGermanySouth Korea Global Network: Chinese exports of vehicle parts and accessories in USD billion General Observations: The

24、 risk to supply chains has been compounded as OEMs have created global networks to leverage low-cost labor while striving for zero inventory to minimize working capital Global auto production isstrongly depending on China (see graph on the left). Supply shortage is affecting assembly of all OEMs in

25、NA, Europa and Asia In China, almost 2/3 of auto production was directly affected by the shutdown with a large impact on their suppliers as well2 Hubei province accounts for 9% of Chinese auto production, disrupting supply chains until operations recover With factories operating at a fraction of cap

26、acity, and trucks not delivering, ocean carriers cancelled many routes Effectsboosted by legal and trade restrictions such as closed borders OES and LSP Examples non-exhaustive Leading Freight Forwarder: Delays with shipments due to increased health and safety measures at various borders (both land

27、and sea). Major Auto Components and Tire Suppliers: Most of the production sites have stopped operations due to lacking demand from OEMs and workforce protection. US is most exposed to Chinas export disruptions Disclaimer: Facts and figures as of March, 24th2020 9 Manufacturing: While NA 2) RBC Capi

28、tal Markets, March 16; European Automobile Manufacturers Association Disclaimer: Facts and figures as of March, 24th2020 Situation in Europe All OEMs have shut down the majority of their European production: Leading German manufacturers shut down the majority of their production in Europe for at lea

29、st two weeks with other OEMs closing for longer Other multinational automakers shut down the majority of their plants through the end of March AnAmerican multinational automaker announced a temporary closure of all plants in continental Europe The majority of OEMs announced a short-time work, overti

30、me reduction, etc. for selected administrative departments Situation in North America OEMs stopped their production across NA An American electric vehicle company was forced to shut down their factory under a shelter-in-place order The Detroit 3 automakers (and other OEMs) followed suit and also shu

31、t down their production in the USA, Canada and Mexico Situation inChina Chinese plants, after suffering a major shut down for a couple of weeks, start up as the rest of the world shuts down Most leading OEMs restarted almost all of their production plants 10 Working Capital 2) Automotive News China,

32、 March 18th, 3) IHS Markit Report, April 1st Disclaimer: Facts and figures as of March, 24th2020 - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 ChinaJapanSouth Korea Western Europe Eastern Europe USACanadaBrazil “Short U” caused by the early recession in 1980; “Deep U” caused by financial crisis in 2008)

33、. The scenario will be driven by the combination of the resolution and containment of the medical emergency, the resulting consumer confidence, as well as the effects on the overall economy influenced by public intervention. Slower adoption of the megatrends: The direction of the automotive industry

34、 towards the four major megatrends (connected, autonomous, shared and electric driving) is expected to remain unchanged as trends will continue to drive the industry evolution going forward. However, the speed of adoption might change due to the emergency. Considerable uncertainty regarding the time

35、frame: As the timeframe cannot be predicted right now, industry players must be ready for all scenarios. Therefore, they must develop the capabilities to quickly identify the signals and direction how to manage the ongoing crisis, how to reset ways of working and how to renew for the “new normal”. D

36、isclaimer: Facts and figures as of March, 24th2020 14 To holistically react to the crisis, OEMs should align their strategic thinking along three time horizons Copyright 2020 Accenture All rights reserved. NEXT RESETRENEWNOW RESPOND How OEMs should respond to the ongoing crisis How OEMs should reset

37、 their ways of working How OEMs should renew for the new normal Implement measures for people safety Create transparency to enable effective decision-making Establish digital workplace taskforce to ensure effective collaboration Manage and mitigate risks across all functional areas Identify trapped

38、value, especially in operating cost, to prevent a liquidity crunch Enable product portfolio shifts through flexible supply chains Create cost-efficient operational robustness by re- designing towards intelligent operations, with digitally enabled people and back- office processes Scan market for ino

39、rganic growth opportunities Reprioritize investment planning and strategic roadmaps 15 OEMs should develop concrete measures to tackle disruptions now, strengthen operations to increase future resilience and prepare for the new normal Copyright 2020 Accenture All rights reserved. Cross-functional En

40、abler Establish a business control tower to coordinate and enable cross-functional, quick and pragmatic responses Manufacturing Working Capital satellites in each region Agile working mode with daily informal C-Level updates instead of lengthy reporting cycles Data-driven decision taking based on da

41、ily updated health, macro-economic, industry and company data from different regions Technology-enabled decision making and reporting to enable quicker actions, e.g. with AI Forward-looking scenario planning and forecasting to prepare for different durations and impacts of the crisis and have a stra

42、tegy at hand for the recovery and business restart SUPPLY CHAIN & OPERATIONS INTEGRATION TEAM FINANCE HR SALES & MARKETING INTEGRATIONINTEGRATION TEAMTEAM 17 NOWRESPOND NEXT RESET & RENEW What can be done to stabilize the supply chain? Mobilize a control tower to orchestrate the response: Establish

43、an operating model for responses related to supply chain interventions. Identify stakeholders, design governance, establish communication channels, and define processes to identify, prioritize and manage interventions. Appoint a single point of responsibility for owning the response plan. Once estab

44、lished, the center coordinates responsesfrom definition and alignment to communication. Sense the risk and create E2E transparency: Anticipate a disruption event with the help of big data, intelligent systems and connected ecosystems. Identify the potential exposure of each component to a risk all t

45、he way up the supply chain and prioritize risks accordingly. Analyze the risks: Evaluate the risk impact, both financially and operationally, model scenarios and evaluate alternatives. Configure the risk response: Develop a detailed action plan for components and suppliers with the greatest impact a

46、nd decide which response actions to take, by whom and with what trade-offs / considerations. An effective plan uses a blend of levers, including shift sourcing to other geographies, identify alternative suppliers, ad hoc negotiations and safety stock. Operate with agility: Execute the response, moni

47、tor the results of execution and adjust the plan where necessary to ensure business continuity. More on this topic: Building supply chain resilience: What to do now and next during COVID-19 Supply Side Recommendations: Now & Next What can be done to ramp up operations and what adjustments need to be

48、 made post-crisis? Operate risk mitigation as business-as usual: Integrate risk mitigation workflows, scenarios and (response) protocols into daily operations to quickly switch from normal to disruption response and ensure that learnings are scaled throughout the business. Build resilient supply cha

49、ins: Increase supply chain visibility and allow proactive assessment and monitoring of risks to make the tradeoff between cost and risk. Leverage insights generated during the selection of suppliers and design the supply chain to decrease over-dependence on one country. 18 Manufacturing Recommendations: Now & Next Copyright 2020 Accenture All rights reserved. What can be done to support manufacturing? Prepare for tiered openings Execute a flexible, gradual ramp up, and prepare for early fluctuations in demand