配送平臺Instacart對零售雜貨業的經濟影響 -美國國家經濟研究協會經濟咨詢公司（英文版）（32頁）.pdf

1、Robert Kulick, Ph.DRobert Kulick, Ph.D. February 2020February 2020 The Economic Impact of Instacart on the Retail Grocery Industry: Evidence from Four States About the Author Dr. Kulick is an Associate Director in NERAs Communications, Media, and Internet Practice. He is also an adjunct professor at

2、 George Mason University Law School where he teaches Regulated Industries. The author is grateful to Instacart for its sponsorship and to Patrick McGervey and Megan Ye for assistance with this report. The views expressed are exclusively Dr. Kulicks own and do not necessarily represent those of NERA

3、Economic Consulting or any of the institutions with which he is affiliated. Executive Summary The retail grocery industry in the United States faces a precarious economic environment. Due primarily to competition from warehouse clubs, supercenters, and e-commerce, retail grocery sales have underperf

4、ormed the U.S. retail sector and the overall U.S. economy, and employment growth in the industry has been stagnant. Yet, a large proportion of consumers maintain a strong preference for shopping at retail grocery stores, and total grocery industry sales and employment still exceed sales and employme

5、nt at warehouse clubs/supercenters and e-commerce retailers. To compete in this setting, many retail grocers are turning to third-party online grocery delivery services offering online shopping and same-day grocery delivery, the largest of which is Instacart. This study applies a broad array of rigo

6、rous statistical methods using evidence from California, Illinois, New York, and Washington to evaluate whether Instacart increases grocery employment by creating incremental demand for the retail grocery industry and quantifies Instacarts effect on incremental grocery sales. The evidence indicates

7、that Instacarts entry and expansion in these four states has significantly increased retail grocery employment and revenue. Specifically: The results from the primary statistical model indicate that Instacarts entry into a local market is associated with a four-percent increase in retail grocery emp

8、loyment. The statistical estimates imply that across the four states, Instacart adoption increased retail grocery employment in 2019 by over 23,000 jobs, supporting over 11,500 grocery jobs in California, 3,400 in Illinois, 6,600 in New York, and 1,900 in Washington. Across the four states, Instacar

9、t increased retail grocery revenue by over $620 million in 2019 with impacts of over $337 million in California, $75 million in Illinois, $154 million in New York, and $55 million in Washington. Contents I. INTRODUCTION . 1 II. INDUSTRY BACKGROUND . 2 A. The Growth of Warehouse Clubs, Supercenters,

10、and Retail E- Commerce . 2 B. The Evolution of Consumer Preferences for Food Consumption and Shopping . 6 C. The Economics of the Retail Grocery Industry . 9 D. The Growth of Third-Party Online Grocery Delivery and Instacart . 14 III. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF INSTACARTS EFFECT ON RETAIL GROCERY EMPLO

11、YMENT IN CALIFORNIA, ILLINOIS, NEW YORK, AND WASHINGTON . 15 A. Methodology and Data . 15 B. Model Estimates . 17 IV. QUANTIFICATION OF INSTACARTS INCREMENTAL EFFECT ON INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT AND REVENUE . 23 A. Employment . 23 B. Revenue . 24 V. CONCLUSION . 26 I. Introduction The retail grocery indus

12、try in the United States has been subject to significant economic pressure over the past decades and is likely to experience further disruption in the coming years. The precarious economic environment confronting the industry is the result of three major trends in the U.S. economy: the entry of ware

13、house clubs and supercenters into grocery and their subsequent growth, the rapid rise of retail e-commerce, and changing consumer preferences regarding food consumption and shopping. Yet, the retail grocery industry remains important for consumers, workers, and the U.S. economy. Economic research an

14、d customer surveys show that many consumers continue to value highly the traditional grocery shopping experience, and in 2018, the U.S. retail grocery industry accounted for 17 percent of retail employment and 13 percent of retail sales.1 Grocery retailers thus face the challenge of serving their cu

15、stomer base by providing the product choice, shopping experience, and service that customers expect, while competing for the business of customers attracted by alternative retail models. To compete, many traditional grocery retailers have sought out new ways to engage consumers. One of the most impo

16、rtant innovations in this area has been the introduction of third-party online grocery delivery services offering online shopping and same-day grocery delivery, the largest of which is Instacart. By managing orders and maintaining a delivery network that is shared across stores, Instacart allows ret

17、ailers to offer quick and convenient grocery delivery without incurring the prohibitive costs and coordinating the complex logistics associated with offering same-day online grocery delivery. Critics of Instacarts business model have charged that Instacart merely cannibalizes existing sales and redu

18、ces grocery store employment. However, to the extent it allows retailers to attract or maintain customers who would otherwise purchase food through a different channel, Instacart may create incremental demand for individual grocery stores and the industry as a whole. Furthermore, because Instacart s

19、hoppers replace customers rather than store employees, Instacart is an economic complement to grocery store employment rather than a substitute. Thus, if Instacart creates incremental demand for grocery stores, economic theory indicates that by raising the marginal revenue product of grocery store w

20、orkers the technical economic term for the incremental value to a firm of hiring additional employees adoption of Instacart by stores may increase industry- wide retail grocery employment. This study applies a broad array of rigorous statistical methods to evaluate whether Instacart reduces or incre

21、ases grocery store employment. The evidence suggests that while Instacart is a disruptive technology changing the ways in which consumers interact with grocery stores, it is not disrupting the retail grocery industry or displacing grocery employees. Indeed, the evidence indicates that Instacarts ent

22、ry and expansion in four states, California, Illinois, New York, and Washington, have significantly increased retail grocery employment by driving incremental demand and increasing the marginal revenue product of employees. Specifically: 1 U.S. Census Bureau, “Monthly Retail Trade Survey: Estimates

23、of Monthly Retail and Food Services Sales by Kind of Business” (hereafter MRTS) (available at https:/www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/mrtssales92-present.xls); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Employment, Hours, and Earnings - National (Current Employment Statistics - CES) (Series IDs: CES4244510001,

24、 CES4200000001)” (available at https:/www.bls.gov/data/#employment). 2 Three distinct statistical models demonstrate a significant positive relationship between Instacart adoption and retail grocery employment. There is strong evidence that this relationship is causal. In estimating each model, mult

25、iple statistical techniques are applied to rule out alternative explanations for the relationship. Furthermore, the evidence for a causal relationship is supported by the application of seven falsification or “placebo” tests to the results of each model. These tests demonstrate that the “Instacart E

26、ffect” is not a statistical artifact of broader economic trends simultaneously affecting Instacart adoption by retailers and employment in the retail grocery industry. The results from the primary statistical model indicate that Instacarts entry into a local market is associated with a four-percent

27、increase in retail grocery employment. The statistical estimates imply that across the four states, Instacart increased retail grocery employment in 2019 by over 23,000 jobs, supporting over 11,500 grocery jobs in California, 3,400 in Illinois, 6,600 in New York, and 1,900 in Washington. Statistical

28、 analysis of the revenue attributable to Instacart indicates that across the four states, Instacart contributed over $620 million in incremental retail grocery revenue in 2019, with impacts of over $337 million in California, $75 million in Illinois, $154 million in New York, and $55 million in Wash

29、ington. II.Industry Background A. The Growth of Warehouse Clubs, Supercenters, and Retail E-Commerce The retail sector of the U.S. economy has been transformed over the past two decades by the rapid growth of warehouse clubs, supercenters, and retail e-commerce. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau pres

30、ented in Figure 1 show that from 1999 to 2018, sales in both industries grew rapidly. 3 FIGURE 1: SALES, 1999 VS. 2018 ($BILLIONS) Source: U.S. Census Bureau. In 1999, warehouse clubs and supercenters2 accounted for approximately $119 billion in total U.S. sales, and electronic shopping and mail-ord

31、er houses, the industry to which the U.S. Census Bureau assigns firms engaged primarily in retail e-commerce, accounted for approximately $94 2 The industry-specific sales and food expenditure statistics in this section are based on the 2012 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Sal

32、es data come from the U.S. Census Bureaus Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS) and food expenditure data come from the U.S. Department of Agricultures Food Expenditure Series, both of which are benchmarked to the 2012 NAICS-based 2012 Economic Census. See U.S. Census Bureau, “2017 Annual Retail Trade S

33、urvey - Methodology” (available at https:/www.census.gov/programs-surveys/arts/technical- documentation/methodology.html); Abigail M. Okrent et al., Measuring the Value of the U.S. Food System: Revisions to the Food Expenditure Series, U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service Technic

34、al Bulletin Number 1948 (September 2018) (available at https:/www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/90155/tb- 1948.pdf?v=5086.2); U.S. Census Bureau, “2012 Economic Census Technical Documentation: Industry Classification of Establishments” (available at https:/www.census.gov/programs-surveys/economi

35、c-census/year/2012/technical- documentation/methodology/classification.html). The 2012 NAICS Manual defines “Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters” as follows: “This industry comprises establishments known as warehouse clubs, superstores or supercenters primarily engaged in retailing a general line of gr

36、oceries in combination with general lines of new merchandise, such as apparel, furniture, and appliances.” See U.S. Census Bureau, “2012 NAICS Definition: 452910 Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters” (available at https:/www.census.gov/cgi- bin/sssd/naics/naicsrch?code=452910 U.S. Bureau of Economic Ana

37、lysis. Since 1999, the warehouse clubs and supercenters industry has grown by approximately 303 percent while the electronic shopping and mail-order houses industry has grown by 540 percent. 3 The 2012 NAICS Manual defines “Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses” as follows: “This industry compri

38、ses establishments primarily engaged in retailing all types of merchandise using nonstore means, such as catalogs, toll free telephone numbers, or electronic media, such as interactive television or computer. Included in this industry are establishments primarily engaged in retailing from catalog sh

39、owrooms of mail-order houses.” See U.S. Census Bureau, “2012 NAICS Definition: 45411 Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses” (available at https:/www.census.gov/cgi-bin/sssd/naics/naicsrch?code=45411 Why Food-Delivery Companies Want to Create Superusers,” The Wall Street Journal (March 10, 2019)

40、(available at food-delivery-companies-11552215618?mod=article_inline). 14 Tom Lutz et al., “How Digital Delivery Puts the Restaurant Value Chain Up for Grabs,” Boston Consulting Group (January 17, 2017) (available at delivery-puts-the-restaurant-value-chain-up-for-grabs.aspx). 15 Dylan Bolden et al.

41、, “How Restaurants Use Data to Capture Competitive Advantage,” Boston Consulting Group (November 9, 2018) (available at data-capture-competitive-advantage.aspx). 10 FIGURE 6: GROCERY STORE STOCKS VS. S U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. While new business models have attracted customers, a large segme

42、nt of consumers still prefer shopping at traditional grocery stores. A recent survey found that the number of consumers who report shopping at grocery stores still exceeds those shopping at mass retailers, specialty stores, 19 See e.g., Daniel S. Hosken, Luke M. Olson, and Loren K. Smith, “Do Retail

43、 Mergers Affect Competition? Evidence from Grocery Retailing,” Journal of Economics U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The North American Industry Classification System in the Current Employment Statistics Program” (available at https:/www.bls.gov/ces/naics/home.htm). Differences between the two syst

44、ems affect the warehouse clubs and supercenters industry (2012 NAICS 45291, 2017 NAICS 452311), which under 2017 NAICS includes the portion of 2012 NAICS discount department stores (2012 NAICS 452112) that have significant perishable grocery sales. See U.S. Census Bureau, “2017 NAICS U.S. Matched to

45、 2012 NAICS U.S. (Full Concordance)” (available at https:/www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/concordances/2012_to_2017_NAICS.xlsx). Discount department stores had sales of $95.2 billion in 2018, but data are not available to separate out the portion of these sales attributable to stores with significant p

46、erishable grocery sales. See MRTS. $674.2 $478.4 $603.7 2,712.4 1,436.9 399.0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 SalesEmployment Employment (Thousands) Sales ($Billions) Grocery StoresWarehouse Clubs and SupercentersElectronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses 14 box stores, or