凱捷（Capgemini）：2020年糧食土地利用報告（英文版）（15頁）.pdf

1、FOOD A ND L A ND USE 141 142 Current situation and challenges Solutions, projects and scale-up Impacts Regional approach European agro-sector from farm to fork generates 430.5 MtCOe: 395 MtCOe from agriculture (10% of the total European CO emissions), mainly from three sources: soils nitrification a

2、nd denitrification, enteric fermentation by ruminant animals and manure management. 35.5 MtCO from food and beverage industry. Agriculture, food and beverage dominate todays bioeconomy workforce, representing 13.7 million jobs. Major turnover is generated by the food and beverage industries, with 23

3、6 billion (20% of total turnover) generated by the meat sector. The main challenges are: Reducing the environmental impact of the whole agricultural value chain from farm to fork to cut down emissions by -20% in 2030 and -50% in 20501. Creating alternative sources of proteins to reduce our dependenc

4、y on livestock production. Maintaining agricultural jobs thanks to changes in agricultural practices (for example conservation agriculture) and creating new ones to replace the losses triggered by technological development (for example synthetic meat, Agriculture 4.0) Proposed projects will initiate

5、 sustainable changes to scale up in each part of the value chain to ensure the reach of overall net-zero objectives: Support the development of a sustainable agriculture: Contribute to CO reduction targets with actions both on soil fertilization to reduce the need for inputs such as nitrogenous ones

6、 (i.e., microbial fertilizer and bio-stimulants) and on global agricultural practices (i.e., conservation agriculture and Agriculture 4.0). BOOS T S Y S T E M IC C H A NG E TO R E AC H N E T- ZERO E M IS SION S FROM FA R M TO FOR K Scale up insect production to provide an alternative of fast-grow fe

7、edstock proteins while creating a new promising agricultural sector generating jobs, revenues and CO savings. Innovate to capture diffuse methane from cattle on-site as it is being done for CO capture in industry. Change the dietary habits of Europeans by reaching respectively 20% and 10% market sha

8、re for plant-based and cell-based meat products in 2030 while investing in synthetic milk technology development. Achieving this target will save up to 51 MtCO, while generating 40 billion turnover and supporting 596,000 jobs. The first phase from 2021 to 2025 will be dedicated to innovation, launch

9、ing of pilots and scale-up preparation: Carry out feasibility studies for breakthrough technologies and launch R The project will cover: fruit, vegetables, arable crops, livestock (meat and dairy), aquaculture, forest and other land use, as well as interfaces with other sectors: health, mobility, lo

10、gistics, and education. Regional Clusters: aim for EU27 balance, however the 400 targeted regional clusters of smart Agri hubs will be taken as a reference, to not create unnecessary inefficiencies. #51 Innovation bet Drive to market scale Acceleration and scale-up Transversal FOO D example of Greec

11、e: -19% consumption of water, fertilizers and pesticides, and +10% production through Earth Observation-based smart farming servic- es: https:/www.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/PwC_Copernicus_Market_Report_2019.pdf 6https:/www.cema-agri.org/images/publications/position-papers/2019_CEMA_Agritech_

12、2030_web.pdf 7https:/www.copernicus.eu/en/access-data/dias 8https:/www.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/PwC_Copernicus_Market_Report_2019.pdf #51 147 148 R EI N FORC E PL A N T S A N D BOOS T C ROP R E SI L I ENC E TO USE L E S S E M IS SI ON S - I N T EN SI V E FERT I L IZER S A N D I N PU T S Cus

13、tomized microbial fertilizers production on-site and biostimulants to foster plant growth and carbon capture under abiotic stress Project opportunity and ambition I N A N U T S H EL L Issue: Ammonia-based fertilizers rely on an energy-intensive production and environmentally harmful operations, and

14、reduce soil quality Solution: Microbial fertilizers, combined with a better use of mineral fertilizers, offer a desirable alternative that can be rapidly developed and deployed at farm scale. In addition, biostimulants strengthen plants and allow for lower use of fertilizers Key impacts: 6.6 MtCOe a

15、voided, 1.4 billion total market, 20,000 jobs in 2030 Test and commercialize solutions for on-site production of microbial fertilizers on 50 farms. The main ambition is to validate the feasibility of producing on-site soil specific microbial fertilizers at large scale, in 50 pilot European farms, wi

16、th a robust, convenient, easy-to-use process, and at a competitive price. Ensure testing on several types of farms in terms of size, soil and crop. Results should clearly show each technologys versatility to fully commercialize and become substitutes to traditional fertilizers from 2022. Build and l

17、ever partnerships with large European crop input manufacturers to provide testing facilities and distribution capabilities. In parallel, accelerate R&D in the field of biostimulants and increase the market penetration of these products through farm-scale research initiatives working on: Experimentin

18、g with new types of biostimulants. Increasing the efficiency of existing types. Demonstrating and quantifying the effectiveness of several biostimulants in practice. Main stakeholders: Agritech startups, academic researchers, competence centers (like German Center for biobased solutions - CBBS), con

19、sortia such as EBIC (European Biostimulants Industry Council), major fertilizer and biostimulants manufacturers, farmers. Regional Clusters: DACH countries (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) gather a considerable cluster of crop input companies acting as catalysts for startup-based innovations in this

20、field. Projects that inspired this analysis: Slovak startup Nitroterra has developed a less energy-intensive production unit for farmers to generate their own tailored biofertilizers. The project recently obtained funding to start the testing phase with a corporate partner. In the field of biostimul

21、ants, EU-funded research projects have resulted in cutting-edge companies levering on corporate and academic collaboration (e.g. Fyteko, AlgaEnergy). #52 Innovation bet Drive to market scale Acceleration and scale-up Crop FOO D & L A N D US E 55 T E C H Q U E S T S TO A CC E L E R AT E E U R O P E S

22、 R E CO V E R Y A N D PAV E T H E WAY TO C L I M AT E N E U T R A L I T Y 149 Why this technology and project are needed to reach net-zero Impacts 6.6 MtCOe avoided 20,000 total jobs49,000 total jobs 1.4 billion total market 5.9 billion investment by 2030, 590 million yearly average (2020-2030) 770

23、million turnover in 2030 26.4 MtCOe avoided 3.3 billion total market 23.6 billion investment by 2050, 790 million yearly average (2020-2050) 2.5 billion turnover in 2050 C L I M AT E I M PAC T ECO N O M I C I M PAC T J O B S 20302050 Fertilizers Around 1% of global GHG emissions come from the energy

24、-intensive production of ammonia for use in fertilizers. Moreover, NO from inorganic fertilizer applications and end-use accounts for 50 MtCOe emissions alone. Biofertilizers provide a net-zero emission alternative to both issues, as they consist of natural micro-organisms. However, they are neither

25、 technically mature nor economically competitive today. To this end, it is important to upscale research in this field (only 1% of the fertilizer industrys total revenues are spent in R&D) while looking for solutions to grow production of available biofertilizers. On-site versatile production units

26、are critical to address these challenges. They enable the production of different microbial fertilizers at the farm, depending on climate, soil condition and crop requirements, while no longer having to rely on major distribution networks for continuous supply. Biostimulants Climate change and human

27、 emissions have affected European agriculture. Highly volatile weather conditions and soil erosion have led to massive crop losses, especially in Southern regions. Agricultural biostimulants have diverse formulations of compounds, substances and micro-organisms that are applied to plants or soils to

28、 improve crop vigor, yields, quality and tolerance to abiotic stresses. The product is applied as a seed treatment or foliar spray and is complementary to crop nutrition and protection. Typical biostimulants include marine macroalgae extracts (such as kelp), plant extracts (such as brassinosteroids)

29、, protein hydrolysates and amino acids, or humic and fulvic acids. While some biostimulants products have been on the market for many years, the research-based biostimulants sector has emerged recently. According to the EBIC, the impacts reach +5 to +10% in yield and +5 to +25% in nutrient use effic

30、iency, depending on the conditions and type of crop. Higher rates can be expected from the R&D projects. EU regulation in the field of bioeconomy needs to ensure that there will not be any breaks in the sectors development. 9See European Environment Agency report No 4/2019 “Climate change adaptation

31、 in the agriculture sector in Europe” https:/www.eea. europa.eu/publications/cc-adaptation-agriculture #52 149 150 TA P I N TO T H E P OT EN T I A L OF I N SEC T S FOR FA S T- G ROW FEEDS TOC K PROT EI N S Bring to commercial scale insect-protein production facilities and build routes to market Proj

32、ect opportunity and ambition I N A N U T S H EL L Issue: Insect-based feeding potential remains untapped due to limited production Solution: Scale up production supporting new sites and R&D to reduce GHG emissions in the agri-food sector Key impacts: 12.5 MtCOe avoided, 10.5 billion total market, 15

33、8,000 jobs in 2030 Project type 1: Invest in R&D to scale up insect breeding processes to ramp up production efficiency The aim of this project is to tackle industrialization challenges to make insect-fed protein production a reality. Main issues to be solved are managing pathogens in large-scale br

34、eeding, increase insect feeding yield and use data analytics and automation to improve processes. Project type 2: Build ten large-scale sites to increase insect-based feed production The production will target livestock and fish farming in Europe and will lever industrial symbiosis with food product

35、ion facilities. The aim of the project is to build ten sites capable of producing at least 10,000 tons per year of insect protein feed using biowastes from nearby food production facilities as input for the insect breeding process, by 2025. Each of these facilities will individually avoid 25,000 tCO

36、e per annum combining low-emission animal- feeding production with efficient biowaste utilization. Partner with major biowaste producers from the agri- food industry across Europe. Main stakeholders: Insect-based feed companies (Protix, InnovaFeed, Ynsect and others), biowaste producers, livestock a

37、nd fish farmers. Regional Clusters: France and the Netherlands host some of the leading insect feed producers in the world. Projects that inspired this analysis: Partnership between agri- food company Tereos and insect feed producer InnovaFeed in France. The latter has recently built its biggest pro

38、duction site (focusing on Hermetia Illucens insects for fish food production) combining their industrial processes by using agricultural byproducts as input for insect breeding. This company expects to further deploy similar plants by 2022. #53 Innovation bet Drive to market scale Acceleration and s

39、cale-up Livestock FOO D & L A N D US E 55 T E C H Q U E S T S TO A CC E L E R AT E E U R O P E S R E CO V E R Y A N D PAV E T H E WAY TO C L I M AT E N E U T R A L I T Y 151 Why this technology and project are needed to reach net-zero Impacts 12.5 MtCOe avoided 10.5 billion total market 5.6 billion

40、cumulated investment by 2030, 0.6 billion yearly average (2020-2030) 2.1 billion turnover in 2030 158,000 total jobs 37.5 MtCOe avoided 26.5 billion total market 75 billion investment by 2050, 2.5 billion yearly average (2020-2050) 24 billion turnover in 2050 398,000 total jobs C L I M AT E I M PAC

41、T ECO N O M I C I M PAC T J O B S 20302050 Livestock consumes 20% of global proteins, in direct competition with humans. As a result, insect-based protein is a promising alternative for animal feed production since it has a high protein content, can be raised with almost no water, hundreds of times

42、less land and with far fewer environmental impacts. Fish farming is the sector that benefits the most from this solution due to positive results shown by insect-fed fish on cost and quality. FAO data shows aquaculture supplies 50% of the fish destined for consumption and it is expected to reach over

43、 60% by 2030. This sector can easily implement insect-based feeding to enable production to increase in the coming years. Another key factor of this technology is its potential role in the circular economy. Insect-based feeding production uses biowaste as an input for the insect breeding process and

44、 produces other waste that can be used to generate biogas, also produced directly from biowaste. As such, there is an opportunity for regulation to create better market conditions by incentivizing the biogas industry to use waste that cannot be exploited by the insect farming industry while taking a

45、dvantage of the outputs of insect-based feeding production processes. #53 151 152 C A P T U R E M E T H A N E A N D NON - CO G HG E M IS SI ON S FROM C AT T L E Develop and test prototypes to capture methane and other gases emitted by cattle Project opportunity and ambition I N A N U T S H EL L Issu

46、e: Livestock produce significant amounts of methane as part of their digestive processes, which account for 40% of livestock emissions Solution: Capture CH4 and oxide to CO using zeolites Key impacts: 3.7 MtCOe avoided, 220 million total market, 3,400 jobs in 2030 Launch five R&D projects to develop

47、 methane capture installations suited to livestock conditions: Test several materials and assess their efficiency and suitability to capture and transform CH4 and NO. Nanoporous zeolites, as well as porous polymer networks (PPNs) are already identified and can transform CH4 into CO thanks to catalys

48、ts11.They could also be used for nitrous oxide. Design installations (e.g. arrays) adapted to the spaces where livestock is the most concentrated, e.g. exhaust points of barns containing ruminant animals. Develop prototypes at industrial scale by 2023. Extend the research works to the economics of s

49、uch installations, and derive recommendations in terms of carbon pricing, as well as business models. Propose a roadmap for the set-up of industrial production as well as deployment across Europe. Main stakeholders: Public and private researchers, industrials and farmers to test solutions. Regional clusters: Countries with high livestock density such as the Netherlands and Belgium can make the most out of methane capture technologies. Projects that inspired this analysis: Stanford University research published in Nature. Sim