世界經濟論壇：未來就業報告（英文版）（163頁）.pdf

1、The Future of Jobs Report 2020 O C T O B E R 2 0 2 0 The Future of Jobs 2 Contents Preface Executive Summary Part 1 Tracking the Future of Jobs Chapter 1 The Labour Market Outlook in the Pandemic Economy 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Short-term shocks and long-term trends 1.3 The remote and hybrid workforce

2、1.4 Impact on equality Chapter 2 Forecasts for Labour Market Evolution in 2020-2025 2.1 Technological adoption 2.2 Emerging and declining jobs 2.3 Emerging and declining skills Chapter 3 Public and Private Sector Pathways to Reviving Labour Markets 3.1 From temporary public policy relief to long-ter

3、m solutions 3.2 From deploying human resources to leveraging human potential Conclusion Notes References Part 2 Country and Industry Profiles Users Guide: How to Read the Country and Industry Profiles Country Profiles Industry Profiles Appendix A: Report Methodology Contributors Acknowledgements Sur

4、vey Partners 3 5 7 8 8 9 16 19 26 27 29 35 40 40 45 49 50 53 55 56 66 119 150 157 158 160 Cover: Unsplash/Joel Guerrero Inside: Unsplash/Christina wocintechchat; Unsplash/Faruq Al Aqib; Unsplash/Rob Lambert 2020 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced

5、 or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. The Future of Jobs October 2020 The Future of Jobs 3 Klaus Schwab Founder and Executive Chairman Saadia Zahidi Member of the Managing Board Preface After years of gr

6、owing income inequality, concerns about technology-driven displacement of jobs, and rising societal discord globally, the combined health and economic shocks of 2020 have put economies into freefall, disrupted labour markets and fully revealed the inadequacies of our social contracts. Millions of in

7、dividuals globally have lost their livelihoods and millions more are at risk from the global recession, structural change to the economy and further automation. Additionally, the pandemic and the subsequent recession have impacted most those communities which were already at a disadvantage. We find

8、ourselves at a defining moment: the decisions and choices we make today will determine the course of entire generations lives and livelihoods. We have the tools at our disposal. The bounty of technological innovation which defines our current era can be leveraged to unleash human potential. We have

9、the means to reskill and upskill individuals in unprecedented numbers, to deploy precision safety nets which protect displaced workers from destitution, and to create bespoke maps which orient displaced workers towards the jobs of tomorrow where they will be able to thrive. However, the efforts to s

10、upport those affected by the current crisis lag behind the speed of disruption. It is now urgent to enact a Global Reset towards a socio-economic system that is more fair, sustainable and equitable, one where social mobility is reinvigorated, social cohesion restored, and economic prosperity is comp

11、atible with a healthy planet. If this opportunity is missed, we will face lost generations of adults and youth who will be raised into growing inequality, discord and lost potential. The Future of Jobs Report provides the timely insights needed to orient labour markets and workers towards opportunit

12、y today and in the future of work. Now in its third edition, the report maps the jobs and skills of the future, tracking the pace of change and direction of travel. This year we find that while technology-driven job creation is still expected to outpace job destruction over the next five years, the

13、economic contraction is reducing the rate of growth in the jobs of tomorrow. There is a renewed urgency to take proactive measures to ease the transition of workers into more sustainable job opportunities. There is room for measured optimism in the data, but supporting workers will require global, r

14、egional and national public-private collaboration at an unprecedented scale and speed. The Platform for the New Economy and Society at the World Economic Forum works as a “docking station” for such collaboration on economic growth, revival and transformation; work, wages and job creation; education,

15、 skills and learning; and diversity, equity and inclusion. By leveraging this publication and other insights, the Platform supports a range of consortia and action coalitions, including the Reskilling Revolution Initiative to provide better jobs, skills and education to one billion people by 2030. W

16、e are deeply grateful to the New Economy and Society Stewardship Board members for their leadership of this agenda, to the over 100 partners of the Platform, and the expert guidance of Global Future Councils, the communities of Chief Economists, Chief Human Resource Officers, Chief Learning Officers

17、 and Chief Diversity Officers, and to a range of national ministries of economy, education and labour. We are also grateful to the many partners whose views created the unique collection of insights in this report. It presents the workforce planning and quantitative projections of Chief Human Resour

18、ce and Strategy officers through to 2025, while also drawing upon the qualitative expertise of a wide range of World Economic Forum executive and expert communities. In addition, The Future of Jobs 4 the report features unique data from LinkedIn, Coursera, ADP and FutureFit.AI, which have provided i

19、nnovative new metrics to shed light on one of the most important challenges of our time. We would like to express our appreciation to Vesselina Ratcheva, Insights Lead; Guillaume Hingel, Insights Lead; and Sophie Brown, Project Specialist for their dedication to this report. We would also like to th

20、ank Ida Jeng Christensen, Eoin Cathasaigh, Genesis Elhussein, Till Leopold and SungAh Lee for their support of this project at the World Economic Forum. Human ingenuity is at the root of all shared prosperity. As the frontier between the work tasks performed by humans and those performed by machines

21、 and algorithms shifts, we have a short window of opportunity to ensure that these transformations lead to a new age of good work, good jobs and improved quality of life for all. In the midst of the pandemic recession, this window is closing fast. Businesses, governments and workers must plan to wor

22、k together to implement a new vision for the global workforce. The Future of Jobs October 2020 The Future of Jobs 5 The COVID-19 pandemic-induced lockdowns and related global recession of 2020 have created a highly uncertain outlook for the labour market and accelerated the arrival of the future of

23、work. The Future of Jobs Report 2020 aims to shed light on: 1) the pandemic-related disruptions thus far in 2020, contextualized within a longer history of economic cycles, and 2) the expected outlook for technology adoption jobs and skills in the next five years. Despite the currently high degree o

24、f uncertainty, the report uses a unique combination of qualitative and quantitative intelligence to expand the knowledge base about the future of jobs and skills. It aggregates the views of business leaderschief executives, chief strategy officers and chief human resources officerson the frontlines

25、of decision-making regarding human capital with the latest data from public and private sources to create a clearer picture of both the current situation and the future outlook for jobs and skills. The report also provides in-depth information for 15 industry sectors and 26 advanced and emerging cou

26、ntries. The reports key findings include: The pace of technology adoption is expected to remain unabated and may accelerate in some areas. The adoption of cloud computing, big data and e-commerce remain high priorities for business leaders, following a trend established in previous years. However, t

27、here has also been a significant rise in interest for encryption, non- humanoid robots and artificial intelligence. Automation, in tandem with the COVID-19 recession, is creating a double-disruption scenario for workers. In addition to the current disruption from the pandemic-induced lockdowns and e

28、conomic contraction, technological adoption by companies will transform tasks, jobs and skills by 2025. Forty- three percent of businesses surveyed indicate that they are set to reduce their workforce due to technology integration, 41% plan to expand their use of contractors for task-specialized wor

29、k, and 34% plan to expand their workforce due to technology integration. By 2025, the time spent on current tasks at work by humans and machines will be equal. A significant share of companies also expect to make changes to locations, their value chains, and the size of their workforce due to factor

30、s beyond technology in the next five years. Although the number of jobs destroyed will be surpassed by the number of jobs of tomorrow created, in contrast to previous years, job creation is slowing while job destruction accelerates. Employers expect that by 2025, increasingly redundant roles will de

31、cline from being 15.4% of the workforce to 9% (6.4% decline), and that emerging professions will grow from 7.8% to 13.5% (5.7% growth) of the total employee base of company respondents. Based on these figures, we estimate that by 2025, 85 million jobs may be displaced by a shift in the division of l

32、abour between humans and machines, while 97 million new roles may emerge that are more adapted to the new division of labour between humans, machines and algorithms. Skills gaps continue to be high as in- demand skills across jobs change in the next five years. The top skills and skill groups which

33、employers see as rising in prominence in the lead up to 2025 include groups such as critical thinking and analysis as well as problem-solving, and skills in self-management such as active learning, resilience, stress tolerance and flexibility. On average, companies estimate that around 40% of worker

34、s will require reskilling of six months or less and 94% of business leaders report that they expect employees to pick up new skills on the job, a sharp uptake from 65% in 2018. The future of work has already arrived for a large majority of the online white-collar workforce. Eighty-four percent of em

35、ployers are set to rapidly digitalize working processes, including a significant expansion of remote workwith the potential to move 44% of their workforce to operate remotely. To address concerns about productivity and well-being, about one-third of all employers expect to also take steps to create

36、a sense of community, connection and belonging among employees through digital tools, and to tackle the well-being challenges posed by the shift to remote work. In the absence of proactive efforts, inequality is likely to be exacerbated by the dual impact of technology and the pandemic recession. Jo

37、bs held by lower wage workers, women and younger workers were more deeply impacted in the first phase of the economic contraction. Comparing the impact of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 on individuals with lower education levels to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, the impact today is far more

38、 significant and more likely to deepen existing inequalities. Online learning and training is on the rise but looks different for those in employment Executive Summary The Future of Jobs 6 and those who are unemployed. There has been a four-fold increase in the numbers of individuals seeking out opp

39、ortunities for learning online through their own initiative, a five-fold increase in employer provision of online learning opportunities to their workers and a nine-fold enrolment increase for learners accessing online learning through government programmes. Those in employment are placing larger em

40、phasis on personal development courses, which have seen 88% growth among that population. Those who are unemployed have placed greater emphasis on learning digital skills such as data analysis, computer science and information technology. The window of opportunity to reskill and upskill workers has

41、become shorter in the newly constrained labour market. This applies to workers who are likely to stay in their roles as well as those who risk losing their roles due to rising recession-related unemployment and can no longer expect to retrain at work. For those workers set to remain in their roles,

42、the share of core skills that will change in the next five years is 40%, and 50% of all employees will need reskilling (up 4%). Despite the current economic downturn, the large majority of employers recognize the value of human capital investment. An average of 66% of employers surveyed expect to ge

43、t a return on investment in upskilling and reskilling within one year. However, this time horizon risks being too long for many employers in the context of the current economic shock, and nearly 17% remain uncertain on having any return on their investment. On average, employers expect to offer resk

44、illing and upskilling to just over 70% of their employees by 2025. However, employee engagement into those courses is lagging, with only 42% of employees taking up employer-supported reskilling and upskilling opportunities. Companies need to invest in better metrics of human and social capital throu

45、gh adoption of environmental, social and governance (ESG) metrics and matched with renewed measures of human capital accounting. A significant number of business leaders understand that reskilling employees, particularly in industry coalitions and in public- private collaborations, is both cost-effe

46、ctive and has significant mid- to long-term dividendsnot only for their enterprise but also for the benefit of society more broadly. Companies hope to internally redeploy nearly 50% of workers displaced by technological automation and augmentation, as opposed to making wider use of layoffs and autom

47、ation-based labour savings as a core workforce strategy. The public sector needs to provide stronger support for reskilling and upskilling for at-risk or displaced workers. Currently, only 21% of businesses report being able to make use of public funds to support their employees through reskilling a

48、nd upskilling. The public sector will need to create incentives for investments in the markets and jobs of tomorrow; provide stronger safety nets for displaced workers in the midst of job transitions; and to decisively tackle long- delayed improvements to education and training systems. Additionally

49、, it will be important for governments to consider the longer-term labour market implications of maintaining, withdrawing or partly continuing the strong COVID-19 crisis support they are providing to support wages and maintain jobs in most advanced economies. The Future of Jobs October 2020 The Future of Jobs 7 Part 1 Tracking the Future of Jobs The Future of Jobs October 2020 The Future of Jobs 8 Introduction The Labour Market Outlook in the Pandemic Economy 1 Developing and enhancing human skills and capabilities through education,