世邦魏理仕：2020年亞太地區房地產市場展望報告（英文版）（44頁）.pdf

1、A P A C H C M C T H U R S D A Y , 9 J A N U A R Y 2 0 2 0 A S I A P A C I F I C REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE THE ASIAN CENTURY WILL COME 10 5 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 United States Japan Germany United Kingdom France China Italy Canada Mexico Brazil US$ trillion GDP 2000 REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICC

2、BRE THE ASIAN CENTURY WILL COME 15 6 6 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 United States China Japan Germany France United Kingdom Brazil Italy Russia Canada US$ trillion GDP 2010 REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE THE ASIAN CENTURY WILL COME 22 15 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 United States China Japan Germany United Kingdom India Fr

3、ance Italy Brazil Canada US$ trillion GDP 2020 REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE THE ASIAN CENTURY WILL COME 24 23 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 China United States India Japan Germany United Kingdom France Russia Indonesia Brazil US$ trillion GDP 2030 People REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE BABY BOOMERGENERAT

4、ION X MILLENNIALS GEN ZER Born 1946-1964 Born 1965-1984Born 1985-1997Born 1998-2014 THE ASIA PACIFIC WORKFORCE: FROM BABY BOOMERS TO GEN ZERS REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

5、2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Growth in working age population India Asia Pacific China Japan Forecast Contraction ASIA PACIFICS WORKING POPULATION WILL STOP GROWING BY 2036 REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE BUT WE ARE LIVING LONGER REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE A HIGHER RETIREMENT AGE IS THE

6、SOLUTION -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Australia Malaysia New Zealand Vietnam Singapore Thailand Japan Hong Kong China South Korea Indonesia Philippines India Working population change (2020-2030) Population aged 65-69 in 2030 Change in working population (2020 -2030) Net effect on working pop

7、ulation growth Countries where life expectancy is below 70 Countries where raising the retirement age can offset the shrinking labour force REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE By 2030, there will be around300,000 baby boomers aged 65-69 years old. With this new rule, there could be around 170,000 bab

8、y boomers added to our workforce in 2030. SINGAPORE HAS RAISED ITS RETIREMENT AGE REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE Vietnams current population is around 96.2 million people, with the percentage of elderly people at around 11.7%. There could be around 12.9% of people over 65 in 2030 and 23% in 2050

9、 according to forecast of the United Nations. VIETNAM HAS RAISED ITS RETIREMENT AGE REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE VIETNAM WILL BOAST A STRONG MILLENNIAL WORKFORCE Current 2019In 10 years REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE Source: A FIFTH GENERATION WILL ENTER THE WORKFORCE AUTONOMOUS TECHNOLOGY

10、 IN OFFICES AND SHOPS REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE Integrate tech and people Faster adaption of agile working Curated experienc es Gen Zers in the workforce Artificial intelligence as colleagues Workplaces as networks A 5G+ Workforce Agile networks Space on demand Innovation and knowledge shar

11、ing Hotelisation of office space Wellness in the workplace Omni-channel experiences Life and Work Greater Agility PEOPLE - IMPLICATIONS FOR REAL ESTATE Earth REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE 200920112013201520172019 1st Asset Price Collapse Storms and Cyclones Severe Income Disparity Interstate Co

12、nflict With Regional Consequences Extreme Weather Events Extreme Weather Events 2nd Slowing Chinese Economy (6%) Flooding Chronic Fiscal Imbalances Extreme Weather Events Large-scale Involuntary Migration Failure of Climate-change Mitigation and Adaption 3rd Chronic DiseaseCorruption Rising Greenhou

13、se Gas Emissions Failure of National Governance Major Natural Disasters Natural Disasters 4th Global Governance Gaps Biodiversity Loss Water Supply Crisis State Collapse or Crisis Large-scale Terrorist Attacks Data Fraud/Theft 5th Retrenchment from Globalisation Climate Change Mismanagement of Popul

14、ation High Structural Unemployment or Underemployment Massive Data Fraud/Theft Cyber-attacks Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological TOP FIVE GLOBAL RISKS IN TERMS OF LIKELIHOOD Source: The Global Risks Report 2019, 2019, World Economic Forum REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE SOU

15、THEAST ASIA AND INDIA ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE RISKS REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE Building Operation s, 28% Building Materials & Construction , 11% Industry, 32% Transportation, Other, 6% The real estate sector accounts for 40% of global carbon dioxide emissions Source: Global Alliance f

16、or Buildings and Construction. 2018 Global Status Report SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE Design an energy efficient building Address remaining energy needs with: Efficient building envelope/ daylighting Passive heating/ cooling/ ventilation Efficient systems/ e

17、quipment/ controls 1/2/ On-site Renewable energy And/ or off-site Renewable energy NET ZERO ENERGY BUILDINGS HAVE ARRIVED Source: Advancing Net Zero Status Report 2019, World Green Building Council, May 2019. REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE Solar energy is cheaper than fossil fuels The payback pe

18、riod for energy saving measures is less than ten years Carbon trading is driving a transition to a low-carbon economy DID YOU KNOW? City REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE +414 million people will migrate to cities in Asia Pacific by 2030 Asia Pacific urbanisation rate 57% 2030 50% 2018 ASIA HAS THE

19、 WORLDS FASTEST URBANISATION RATE Note: * APAC includes China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, India, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand Source: United Nations, CBRE Research, May 2019. REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PAC

20、IFICCBRE Mega cities in 2018 Tokyo Osaka Tianjin Beijing Shanghai Manila Jakarta Bangkok Guangzhou Bangalore Mumbai DelhiChongqing Kolkata Chennai New mega cities in 2030 HCMC Seoul NanjingChengdu Ahmadabad Hyderabad Shenzhen Largest Mega Cities 20 20 26 37 29 24 25 33 37 39 Beijing Mumbai Shanghai

21、Tokyo Delhi 2030 2018 Fastest growing Mega Cities 8 8 9 11 29 11 11 13 16 39 Nanjing HCMC Hyderabad Bangalore Delhi 2030 2018 22 CITIES IN ASIA PACIFIC WILL HAVE A POPULATION OF MORE THAN TEN MILLION BY 2030 Mega city refer to citys population above 10 million. Source: United Nations, CBRE Research,

22、 May 2019. REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE Asia already has high population density TRAFFIC CONGESTION LIVING QUALITY ENERGY POLLUTION RAPID URBANISATION IS CREATING SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE Airports US$1.0 trillion Ports US$1.0 trillion Railways US$6.5 trillion R

23、oads US$14.4 trillion ChinaChina China India Japan China Japan Indonesia India Australia Korea Markets that will each invest more than US$200 billion in transport infrastructure from 2016-2040 ASIA PACIFIC IS SET TO INVEST US$23 TRILLION IN TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE BY 2040 Source: Global infrastruct

24、ure outlook, CBRE Research, May 2019. REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE Traffic congestion Living quality Smart mobility City Brain by Alibaba real time optimisation of traffic signals Town planning Virtual Singapore a dynamic 3D digital platform which can be used as a test- bedding platform Intern

25、et of things + Big data Smart Governance & Smart Education Smart Healthcare Smart Energy Smart Citizen Smart Building Smart Mobility Smart Infrastructure Smart Technology SMART CITIES CAN HELP CREATE A MORE SUSTAINABLE LIVING ENVIRONMENT REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE More smart buildings Faster

26、 decentrali- sation Transportation opportunities Remote working enabled by technology Stronger interest in non- traditional business districts close to residential areas due to shorter commuting times Improved accessibility to support decentralisation Station-based and transport oriented development

27、 (TOD) Landlords: Lower operating costs and higher sustainability Occupiers: Enhanced user- experience, better connectivity and more efficient use of office space Align with smart city planning and adopt complimentary technological infrastructure CITY - IMPLICATIONS FOR REAL ESTATE Property REAL EST

28、ATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE CLOUD ADOPTION IN THE WORKPLACE REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE CORE + FLEX L E A S I N G M O D E L The traditional office and ways of working will continue to evolve and will eventually comprise a combination of focus,collaborative and shared spaces WORKPLACE TRANSFORM

29、ATION REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE CAR HAILINGCO-LIVINGCO-WORKING Car hailing can replace up to FOURFOUR cars Each home share can reduce up to THREETHREE additional housing units FIVE out of FIVE FIVE out of FIVE office buildings have flexible office components SHARING IS THE NEW NORM REAL EST

30、ATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE The future of ridesharing: Air taxis based on drone technology will transform mobility and logistics in urban cities REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 2013201320142015201620172018As

31、of Sept 2019 000 sq. ft. Total size of flex space in Asia Pacific Total flexible space 65 mn sq.ft. THE FUTURE OF FLEX SPACE Source: CBRE Research, October 2019. Note: Agile space includes serviced offices and co-working space located in both office and non-office space. Incubators or accelerators a

32、re not included. Includes 18 Asia Pacific markets: Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Taiepi, Seoul, Tokyo, Singapore, HCMC, Hanoi, Bangkok, New Delhi, Bangalore, Mumbai, Sydney, Melbourne and Auckland. REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE NOWNOW Headquarters Satellite office Project o

33、ffice Flexible space 2030 Satellite office network Project office Flexible space Caf / Gym membership Meeting On-demand Headquarters as a network AGILITY HAS ALREADY GONE BEYOND COWORKING What does this mean for OCCUPIERS? REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE WORKPLACE BUILDING PORTFOLIO 5G Workforce

34、Me/We Space Corporate Value Innovation Wellness LONGER TERM VIEW TOWARDS PORTFOLIO STRATEGY REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE WORKPLACE BUILDING PORTFOLIO ROOF TERRACE/ EVENT SPACE BAR/ RESTAURANT ACTIVATED COMMUNITY AREAS / EVENT SPACES SHARED FOOD HALL / CONFERENCE AUDITORIUM FITTED / SPEC SUITES

35、 CONCIERGE / BIKE STORAGE / GYM & LEISURE FACILITIES CONVENTIONAL FLOORS WITH LONG TERM LEASES SPACE AS A SERVICE LONGER TERM VIEW TOWARDS PORTFOLIO STRATEGY REAL ESTATE 2030| ASIA PACIFICCBRE WORKPLACE BUILDING PORTFOLIO OCCUPIERS Create ENGAGING workplaces for the 5G workforce Build networks for v

36、irtual teams BALANCE working and personal lives Commit to environmental, social and governance (ESG) targets FLEXIBLE working 2.0 Introduce plug and play space Utilise more diverse operators and services CONNECT to innovators Leverage community facilities and events as differentiators CORE FLEX WORK

37、 LIFE COMPONENTS OF A LONGER TERM PORTFOLIO STRATEGY THANK YOU T H A N K Y O U For more information regarding this presentation please contact: CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. Research & Consulting T: +84 28 3824 6125 | F: +84 28 3823 8418 | E: Disclaimer: All materials presented in this report, unless speci

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