世邦魏理仕：2020年越南房地產市場展望報告（英文版）（78頁）.pdf

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1、V I E T N A M H A N O I T u e s d a y , 7 J a n u a r y 2 0 2 0 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VIETNAMCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC.ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | COUNTRYCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. CONTENT HANOI OFFI CE SECTOR HANOI RESI DENTI AL SECTOR HANOI RET

2、AI L SECTOR 01 02 03 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | COUNTRYCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. HANOIHANOI Office Market ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VIETNAMCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. LOOKING BACK TO THE LAST 10 YEARS 20102010 20192019 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKE

3、T OUTLOOK 2020 | VIETNAMCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. LOOKING BACK TO THE LAST 10 YEARS . 20192019 Total Supply: : 500k sqm 500k sqm NLANLA, ,small to medium scale buildings Total Supply: Nearly reach1.4 mil sqm NLA1.4 mil sqm NLA, larger-scale projects Lacking awareness Lacking awareness of shari

4、ng economy &flexible flexible workspaceworkspace Emergence ofFlexible Flexible WorkspaceWorkspace CBD CBD is major supply hub The West The West dominates the supply Images retrieved from the internet 20102010 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VIETNAMCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 2019

5、KEY STORIES Further new supply to the West will continue to attract demand Rental growth sustained at 3% Moderate new supply volume lower than previously expected Vacancy at 9-year low SUPPLYR EN TSVAC AN C YD EM AN D ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VIETNAMCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, I

6、NC. HanoiHanoi OFFICE MARKET SNAPSHOT IN 2019 HCMCHCMC ASKING RENT ASKING RENT (*)(*) VACANCY RATEVACANCY RATE US$26.2US$26.2 NEW SUPPLYNEW SUPPLY (%)(%) NLA (sqm)NLA (sqm) US$/sqm/US$/sqm/ monthmonth 3.2 3.2 ppts y-o-y 3.4%3.4%y-o-y - -2.9 2.9 ppts y-o-y Grade A Grade B US$14.3US$14.3 3.4%3.4%y-o-y

7、 7.5%7.5%9.3%9.3% 1 new 1 new projectproject 5 new 5 new projectsprojects +24,454 sqm+24,454 sqm +73,000 sqm+73,000 sqm Grade A Grade B POSITIVE MARKET PERFORMANCE AMID STRONGER NEW SUPPLY VOLUMEPOSITIVE MARKET PERFORMANCE AMID STRONGER NEW SUPPLY VOLUME US$45.2US$45.2US$24.7US$24.7 - -2.7% 2.7% y-o

8、-y6.1%6.1%y-o-y 10.2%10.2%5.9%5.9% 5.0 5.0 ppts y-o-y 2.9 2.9 ppts y-o-y 2 new 2 new projectsprojects 5 new 5 new projectsprojects +62,550 sqm (*)+62,550 sqm (*) +99,403 sqm (*)+99,403 sqm (*) (*) Asking rent exclude service charge and VAT. (*) including both area from new projects and expansion of

9、existing projects Source: CBRE Vietnam ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 8 GROWTH IN GROWTH IN SUPPLY SUPPLY ACCELERATED ACCELERATED BUT UNDER BUT UNDER CONTROLCONTROL ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE,

10、 INC. 9 MODERATE NEW SUPPLY VOLUME LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED PeakPeakv viewiew T Towerower NLA: 31,500 sqmNLA: 31,500 sqm Opened in: Q4 19Opened in: Q4 19 Occ. (*): 80%Occ. (*): 80% ConincoConinco TowerTower NLA: 9,800 sqmNLA: 9,800 sqm Opened in: Q4 19 Opened in: Q4 19 Occ. (*): 80%Occ. (*): 8

11、0% Hanoi Office Supply, NLA sqm, 2010 Hanoi Office Supply, NLA sqm, 2010 - - 20192019 Supply growth 2019: 7% CAGR (2017-2019): 5% Hanoi Office, Notable New Openings in 2019Hanoi Office, Notable New Openings in 2019 Bamboo Airways TowerBamboo Airways Tower NLA: 8,640 sqmNLA: 8,640 sqm Opened in: Q1 1

12、9 Opened in: Q1 19 Occ. (*): Occ. (*): 100100% % (*) Occupancy as of Q4 2019 Source: CBRE Vietnam - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019 NLA (sqm) Existing Supply (sqm)New Supply (sqm) ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK

13、 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 10 RENTS HAVE BEEN GROWING FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE YEARS Hanoi Office Rental Rate 2010 Hanoi Office Rental Rate 2010 - - 20192019 (*) Asking rent exclude service charge and VAT. Source: CBRE Vietnam Annual rental growth A: -8% B: -13% A: -3% B: 1% A: 3% B

14、: 2% $0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.0 $30.0 $35.0 $40.0 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019 Rents (US$/sqm/month) Grade A - RentGrade B - Rent Slow downRecoverGrow ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 11 Hanoi Vacancy Rate 2010 Hanoi Vacancy Rat

15、e 2010 - - 20192019 Source: CBRE Vietnam VACANCY AT 9-YEAR LOW 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019 Vacancy rate Vacant space (sqm) Vacant space (both grades)Grade A - VacancyGrade B - Va

16、cancy ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 12 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 20152019 Grade A Rents * (US$/sqm/month) CBDMidtownWest FURTHER NEW SUPPLY TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO ATTRACT DEMAND 2015 TenantsTenants areare adapting with the market situationadapti

17、ng with the market situation 20192019 WEST 33%WEST 33%WEST 40%WEST 40% The The West continued to increase its share of West continued to increase its share of total office supplytotal office supply 0% 50% 100% 20152019 Others West Midtown CBD 41%49% Preferred locations by CBRE Preferred locations by

18、 CBRE inquiriesinquiries Limited supply in CBD and Midtown leads to closer gap Limited supply in CBD and Midtown leads to closer gap among office clustersamong office clusters Wests average Wests average rental growthrental growth 2015 2015 - - 20192019 Markets average Markets average rental growthr

19、ental growth 2015 2015 - - 20192019 6%6%3%3% US$6-$8US$10-$11 (*) Asking rent exclude service charge and VAT. Source: CBRE Vietnam ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 13 Tech & Flexi Space driving Tech & Flexi Space driving the Demandthe Demand ASIA

20、PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 14 28% 22% 14% 5% 3% 3% 2% 17% 3% 2% 1% 1% IT/Tech Manufacturing Banking/Finance/Insurance Energy Media Trading Real Estate/Construction Flexible workspace Travel Fintech Healthcare Logistics DIVERSE DEMAND FROM TRADITI

21、ONAL SECTORS AND EMERGING INDUSTRIES Major leasing transactions by industries, 2019 (recorded by CBRE)Major leasing transactions by industries, 2019 (recorded by CBRE) Traditional Sectors (75%) New Sectors (25%) Source: CBRE Vietnam ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH

22、 | 2020 CBRE, INC. 15 BOOM OF IT/TECH: TECH FIRMS BUILT THEIR OWN OFFICE BUILDINGS TO MEET THEIR NEEDS OF RAPID EXPANSION VNG Campus VNG Campus Tan Tan ThuanThuan Industrial Park Industrial Park D.7, HCMCD.7, HCMC Land Area: 40,000 sqm Land Area: 40,000 sqm CMCCMC Creative Space Creative Space Tan T

23、an ThuanThuan Industrial Park Industrial Park D.7, D.7, HCMCHCMC Land Area: 13,000 sqm Land Area: 13,000 sqm Viettel Headquarter Viettel Headquarter CauCau GiayGiay NUA, Hanoi NUA, Hanoi GFA: 40,000 sqmGFA: 40,000 sqm Source: CBRE Vietnam ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RE

24、SEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 16 BANKING/FINANCE AND INSURANCE: GROWTH OF THE INDUSTRY LEADS TO STRONG EXPANSION List of major banking/finance and insurance office leasing List of major banking/finance and insurance office leasing transaction in Hanoi in 2019 (recorded by CBRE)transaction in Hanoi in 201

25、9 (recorded by CBRE) LocationSize (sqm)OriginIndustry CBD1,000 Vietnam Bank West1,100 Foreign Insurance West1,300 Foreign Insurance Midtown1,300 Foreign Insurance Midtown1,500 Foreign Finance company Midtown4,000 Vietnam Bank Vietnam Insurance Industry, annual premiumsVietnam Insurance Industry, ann

26、ual premiums 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 9M2019 Growth rate Premiums (VND bn) PremiumsGrowth (y-o-y) Source: Ministry of Finance, CBRE Vietnam ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | Vietnam

27、CBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 17 FLEXIBLE OFFICE: LOCAL OPERATORS STRONGLY EXPANDING FsoftUPFsoftUP FLC Twin Towers, FLC Twin Towers, CauCau GiayGiay Dist.,Dist., GFA: 4,000 sqm GFA: 4,000 sqm ToongToong DienDien Bien Bien PhuPhu, , Ba Dinh Dist.,Ba Dinh Dist., GFA: 2,100 sqm GFA: 2,100 sqm Mind X

28、 Nguyen Chi Thanh Mind X Nguyen Chi Thanh Dong Da Dist.,Dong Da Dist., GFA: 1,000 sqm GFA: 1,000 sqm ToongToong IPHIPH CauCau GiayGiay Dist.,Dist., GFA: 1,900 sqm GFA: 1,900 sqm ToongToong EmbassyEmbassy Bac Tu Bac Tu LiemLiem Dist.,Dist., GFA: 1,300 sqm GFA: 1,300 sqm Existing noticeable operators

29、in Hanoi New operators to join Hanoi market from 2020 TekoUPTekoUP PeakviewPeakview, , Dong Da Dist.,Dong Da Dist., GFA: 4,500 sqm GFA: 4,500 sqm Mind X Thanh Cong Mind X Thanh Cong Dong Da Dist.,Dong Da Dist., GFA: 1,000 sqm GFA: 1,000 sqm One-site client via rentalization ON THE BACK OF EMERGENCE

30、OF “ON THE BACK OF EMERGENCE OF “RENTALIZATIONRENTALIZATION” ” ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 18 NEW LETTINGS ON THE RISE IN 2019 201820192019 Hanoi Office, Tenants by Leasing Purpose, Major Transactions Collected & Closed by CBREHanoi Office, T

31、enants by Leasing Purpose, Major Transactions Collected & Closed by CBRE Source: CBRE Research. 24% 50% 26% 62% are foreign tenants 35% By origin By Industry 32% from IT/Tech from Flexible workspace 33% 31% 29% 6% New Letting Relocation Expansion Renewal ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020

32、| VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 19 HEAD LEASE TO SUBLEASE: MORE OPTIONS FOR TENANTS Pax Sky Ung Van Khiem, Binh Thanh District, HCMC Dragon Fly Tran Cao Van, District 1, HCMC Galleria Metro 6 Thao Dien, District 2, HCMC Pax Sky Ngo Thi Nham, Hai Ba Trung Dist., Hanoi Pax Sky Pham Van Dong,

33、Nam Tu Liem Dist., Hanoi ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 20 290,000 290,000 SQM SQM NLANLA FROM 9 FROM 9 PROJECTS PROJECTS TO OPEN TO OPEN BY 2022BY 2022 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 21 MAR

34、KET OUTLOOK AWAITING AWAITING LARGELARGE- -SCALE PROJECTSSCALE PROJECTS Source: CBRE Vietnam - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 2020F2021F2022F NLA (sqm) Grade AGrade B Thai Building Thai Building WestWest NLA: 24,000 sqm MITEC BRG Grand PlazaBRG Grand Plaza MidtownMidtown

35、 NLA: 34,000 sqm BRG Hanoi Office, Notable New Supply, 2020Hanoi Office, Notable New Supply, 2020 Capital Place Capital Place MidtownMidtown NLA: 92,000 sqm Capitaland - MEA ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 22 SUPPLY TO REACH OVER 1.6 MILLION SQM

36、NLA BY 2022F IN HANOI AND HCMC EACH Source: CBRE Research. - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2019202020212022 Supply (sqm NLA) Hanoi Current SupplyHanoi New Supply FFF - 2 4 6 8 10 12 HanoiHCMCBangkok Supply (million sqm, NLA) 6x 6x Hanoi Office, Sup

37、ply Forecast, 2020F Hanoi Office, Supply Forecast, 2020F 2022F2022FSupply Forecast by 2022F, Regional ComparisonSupply Forecast by 2022F, Regional Comparison ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 23 $0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 201720

38、1820192020F2021F2022F Asking rents (US$ psm pm) Asking rents - Grade AAsking rents - Grade B MARKET OUTLOOK LIMITED RENTAL GROWTH AT EXISTING PROJECTS, LIMITED RENTAL GROWTH AT EXISTING PROJECTS, WHILE NEW PROJECTS TO ASK HIGHER RENTAL LEVELSWHILE NEW PROJECTS TO ASK HIGHER RENTAL LEVELS Rental Fore

39、cast, Hanoi OfficeRental Forecast, Hanoi OfficeVacancy Forecast, Hanoi OfficeVacancy Forecast, Hanoi Office 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 2017201820192020F2021F2022F Vacancy (%) Vacancy rate - Grade A Vacancy rate - Grade B Vacancy rate - Grade A (if postponement of construction happens) Fo

40、recast CAGR (2019 2022F)HanoiHCMC Grade A3%5% Grade B2%8% Forecast Source: CBRE Research. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VIETNAMCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. Hanoi office supply to increase by 21% 21% by 2022 RentsRents of both grades continue to increase by 2% increase by 2% - - 3

41、% y3% y- -o o- -y y Hanoi, though, is a market in a market in favor of tenantsfavor of tenants Further supply in the West the West will continue to attract demand although competition remains strong across clusters IT/Tech and Flexible office IT/Tech and Flexible office to remain demand drivers MARK

42、ET OUTLOOK ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 25 West cluster Midtown cluster RING ROAD 2 CBD cluster CornerStone BRG Grand Plaza IPH Charmvit Projects at Starlake NUA Lotte Mall Hanoi Grandeur Palace Pham Hung The Matrix One My Dinh Pearl Vietinban

43、k TowerHANOI 2030 FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS WILL MOVE BEYOND EXISTING CLUSTERS?WILL MOVE BEYOND EXISTING CLUSTERS? (*) The listing is not comprehensive Landmark 72 WEST LAKE Future projects Lotte Center Hanoi TNR Tower Capital Place BRG Tower ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 202

44、0 | VIETNAMCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC.ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | COUNTRYCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. HANOIHANOI Retail Market ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 27 2010 2019 Modern Retail space up by 5.5x Large-scale proje

45、cts from 100,000+ sqm Traditional retail dominated Largest project at 30,000 sqm Local developers gaining foothold Retail formats constantly adapting Foreign developers led the market Limited retail formats Retailersexpand to different industries to gain market share Retailersspecialize in one indus

46、try ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 28 2010 2019 Competition driven by M&A Investmentin Retail real estate remained at an early stage Local franchises go global Vietnam market opening up International franchises taking the stage Signing CPTPP ENT

47、to loosen up International players facing legal barriers ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VietnamCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 CBRE, INC. 29 2019 KEY STORIES Anchor Tenants: Money Value and other Values Modern Retail Targets Millennials with Experience- based Shopping Hanoi Retail supply reache

48、d 1,000,000 sqm milestone Growing Categories in Shopping centres: F&B, Fashion, Entertainment, Health & Beauty Retail chain operation: Success vs. Failure stories SUPPLY MODERN RETAIL TENANT MIX ANCHOR TENANTS RETAIL CHAINS ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 | VIETNAMCBRE RESEARCH | 2020 C

49、BRE, INC. MARKET SNAPSHOT 2019 NonNon- -CBDCBDCBDCBD ASKING ASKING RENTRENT VACANCY VACANCY RATERATE US$98.1 1.3% 54,500 sqm NLA 13 projects TOTAL TOTAL SUPPLYSUPPLY (%)(%) NLA (sqm)NLA (sqm) US$/sqm/US$/sqm/ monthmonth US$24.8 8.7% No new project 5 new projects 2.0%q-o-q 3.6% %q-o-q 1.3% %y-o-y 0.0% y-o-y 0.8ppts q-o-q 0.0ppts y-o-y 1.5 ppts q-o-q 0.5ppts y-o-y Asking rent is for Ground Floor and First Floor, exc