KPCB：2016年互聯網女皇報告原版（2016年6月1日）（213頁）.pdf

1、Mary Meeker June 1, 2016 INTERNET TRENDS 2016 CODE CONFERENCE KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 2 Outline 1)Global Internet Trends 2)Global Macro Trends 3)Advertising / Commerce + Brand Trends 4)Re-Imagining Communication Video / Image / Messaging 5)Re-Imagining Human-Computer Interfaces Voice / Tran

2、sportation 6)China = Internet Leader on Many Metrics (Provided by Hillhouse Capital) 7)Public / Private Company Data 8)Data as a Platform / Data Privacy KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 3 Thanks. KPCB Partners Especially Alex Tran / Dino Becirovic / Alexander Krey / Cindy Cheng who helped develop th

3、e ideas / presentation we hope you find useful. Hillhouse Capital Especially Liang Wu.his / their contribution of the China section of Internet Trends provides an especially thoughtful overview of the largest market of Internet users in the world. Participants in Evolution of Internet Connectivity F

4、rom creators to consumers who keep us on our toes 24x7.and the people who directly help us prepare this presentation. Kara USA total population at 12/2015 (inclusive of all ages) was 323MM per US Census. KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 8 India Internet Users = 277MM 22% Penetration. +40% vs. +33% Y

5、/Y Source: IAMAI. Uses mid-year figures. India Internet Users, 2008 2015 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 20082009201020112012201320142015 Y/Y % Growth India Internet Users (MM) India Internet UsersY/Y Growth (%) KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 9 Global Smartphone Users Slowing =

6、 +21% vs. +31% Y/Y Global Smartphone Unit Shipments Slowing Dramatically = +10% vs. +28% Y/Y Source: Nakono Research (2/16), Morgan Stanley Research (5/16). “Smartphone Users” represented by installed base. KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 10 Global Smartphone User Growth Slowing. Largest Market (As

7、ia-Pacific) = +23% vs. +35% Y/Y Source: Nakono Research (2/16). * “Smartphone Users” represented by installed base. Smartphone Users, Global, 2005 2015 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015 North AmericaWestern EuropeEastern EuropeAsia-PacificLatin AmericaM

8、EA 2015: Asia- Pacific = 52% 2008: Asia- Pacific = 34% Global Smartphone Users (MM) KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 11 Global Smartphone Units Slowing Dramatically. After 5 Years of High Growth +10% vs. +28% Y/Y Source: Morgan Stanley Research, 5/16. Smartphone Unit Shipments by Operating System, G

9、lobal, 2007 2015 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 200720082009201020112012201320142015 Y/Y Growth (%) Global Smartphone Unit Shipments (MM) AndroidiOSOtherY/Y Growth KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 12 Android Smartphone Share Gains Continue vs. iOS. Android ASP Declines Continue.De

10、lta to iOS 3x Source: Morgan Stanley Research, 5/16. 0 400 800 1,200 2007200820092010201120122013201420152016E Unit Shipments (MM) iOS Android Smartphone Unit Shipments, iOS vs. Android, Global, 2007 2016E -11% Y/Y +7% Y/Y 2009 Share: iOS = 14% Android = 4% 2015 Share: iOS = 16% Android = 81% iOS AS

11、P ($) $594 $621 $623 $703 $712 $686 $669 $680 $717 $651 Y/Y Growth 4% 0% 13% 1% -4% -2% 2% 5% -9% Android ASP $403 $435 $441 $380 $318 $272 $237 $216 $208 Y/Y Growth 8% 1% -14% -16% -15% -13% -8% -4% KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 13 New Internet Users = Continue to be Harder to Garner Owing to Hi

12、gh Penetration in Developed Markets KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 14 0 20 40 60 80 100 Source: World Bank; McKinsey analysis from Internet Barriers Index Performance on Internet Barriers Index Average score Minimum - 0 Maximum -100 Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Countries: Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria,

13、 Pakistan, Tanzania Offline population, 2014: 548 million Internet penetration, 2014: 18% Group 1: High barriers across the board; offline populations that are young, rural, and have low literacy Countries: Egypt, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand Offline population, 2014: 1,438 million Intern

14、et penetration, 2014: 20% Group 2: Medium to high barriers with larger challenges in incentives and infrastructure; mixed demographics Countries: China, Sri Lanka, Vietnam Offline population, 2014: 753 million Internet penetration, 2014: 49% Group 3: Medium barriers with greatest challenge in incent

15、ives; rural and literate offline populations Incentives Low incomes and affordability User capability Infrastructure 3 Group 4 Group 5 Countries: Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey Offline population, 2014: 244 million Internet penetration, 2014: 52% Group 4: Medium barriers with greates

16、t challenge in low incomes and affordability; offline populations predominantly urban / literate / low income Countries fall into one of 5 groups based on barriers they face to Internet adoption Countries: Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Russia, USA Offline population, 2014: 147 million Internet penet

17、ration, 2014: 82% Group 5: Low barriers across the board; offline populations that are highly literate and disproportionately low income and female With Already High Mobile Penetration in More Developed / Affluent Countries. New Users in Less Developed / Affluent Countries Harder to Garner, per McKi

18、nsey KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 15 Smartphone Cost in Many Developing Markets = Material % of Per Capita Income. 15% (Vietnam) / 10% (Nigeria) / 10% (India) / 6% (Indonesia), per McKinsey Source: McKinsey, Euromonitor, (smartphone prices); World Bank, estimates (GNI p.c., Atlas method) Note: R

19、eflects true prices as paid by the consumer at point-of-sale; includes taxes and subsidies. Excludes data plan costs. 1.0 3.8 0.8 10.3 6.1 4.7 2.7 0.9 14.8 2.5 5.8 3.7 0.9 4.7 3.3 0.6 1.8 10.1 4.8 11.4 21.5 Tanzania Ethiopia Bangladesh Turkey China Germany Spain South Korea Japan Italy Mexico Thaila

20、nd Egypt South Africa Philippines Colombia Nigeria Vietnam India Indonesia Brazil Russia 47.6 $232 $216 $269 $327 $486 $244 $232 $319 $522 $243 $256 $291 $273 $163 $212 $195 $307 $158 $279 $123 $198 $262 Average retail price of a smart phone, $USD, 2014 Developing Developed x% Cost of smartphone as

21、a % of GNI per capita, 2014 GLOBAL MACRO TRENDS KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 17 Global Economic Growth = Slowing KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 18 Global GDP Growth Slowing = Growth in 6 of Last 8 Years Below 20-Year Average Source: IMF WEO, 4/16. Stephen Roach, “A World Turned Inside Out,” Ya

22、le Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, 5/16. Note: GDP growth based on constant prices (real GDP growth). Global Real GDP Growth (%), 1980 2015 (1%) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200

23、5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Global Real GDP Growth (%) 20-Year Avg = 3.8% 35-Year Avg = 3.5% KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 19 Commodity Price Trends = In Part, Tell Tale of Slowing Global Growth KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 20 Commodity Prices Down = -39% Since 5/14 vs

24、. -8% Annual Average (5/11-4/14) plant, machinery, and equipment purchases; and the construction of roads, railways, and the like, including schools, offices, hospitals, private residential dwellings, and commercial and industrial buildings. It also includes the value of draught animals, breeding st

25、ock and animals for milk, for wool and for recreational purposes, and newly increased forest with economic value. $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20

26、04 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 China Gross Capital Formation ($B) China Gross Capital Formation ($B) $21T+ China Gross Capital Formation, 1980 2015 (In 2010 Dollars) $20T+ KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 25 Shanghai Area Over Past 2+ Decades = Illustrates Magnitude of Chi

27、na ( includes top developed countries by GDP and representative geographic selection of emerging countries. 0306090120150180210240270300330360390420 130 140 60 120 70 -10 90 80 10 30 0 -20 40 20 50 India Hungary Philippines Peru Nigeria Egypt Colombia Chile Singapore United States Slovakia Italy Can

28、ada Netherlands United Kingdom Korea France Japan Ireland Hong Kong Czech Republic Denmark Portugal Norway Switzerland Germany Finland Greece Spain Belgium Austria Australia China Morocco Russia Sweden South Africa Thailand Brazil Saudi Arabia Vietnam Turkey Mexico Argentina Indonesia Poland Malaysi

29、a Romania Increasing leverage Deleveraging Leveraging Deleveraging Developed Emerging Change in Real Economy Debt / GDP (%), 2007 Q2:15 Change in Real Economy Debt / GDP (%) Q2:15 Real Economy Debt / GDP (%) KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 33 Demographic Trends = Slowing Population Growth. Slowing

30、Birthrates + Rising Lifespans KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 34 World Population Growth Rate Slowing = +1.2% vs. +2.0% (1975) Source: U.N. Population Division Note: Growth Rates based on CAGRs over 5 Year Periods. Global Population and Y/Y % Growth, 1950 2050E 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 0 2 4 6

31、 8 10 Y/Y Growth Rate (%) Global Population (B) Global Population (B)Y/Y Growth (%) KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 35 Global Birth Rates = Down 39% Since 1960 (1% Annual Average Decline) Source: World Bank World Development Indicators Note: Represents birth rates per 1,000 people per year. 0 10 20

32、 30 40 50 196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102014 Birth Rate per 1,000 People, per Year WorldUSAChina IndiaEurope / Central AsiaEast Asia / Pacific Middle East / North AfricaSub-Saharan Africa Birth Rates per 1,000 People per Year, By Region, 1960 2014 KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 36 Gl

33、obal Life Expectancy 72 Years = Up 36% Since 1960 (0.6% Annual Average Increase) Source: World Bank World Development Indicators 30 40 50 60 70 80 196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102014 Life Expectancy (Years) WorldUSAChina IndiaEurope / Central AsiaEast Asia / Pacific Middle East / North

34、AfricaSub-Saharan Africa Life Expectancy (Years, Both Genders), By Region, 1960 2014 KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 37 Net, Net, Economic Growth Slowing + Margins for Error Declining = Easy Growth Behind Us KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 38 5 Epic Growth Drivers Over Past 2 Decades = Losing Mojo

35、 Source: US Census, ITU, IMF, Stephen Roach, McKinsey, Bloomberg, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, UN Population Division 1) Connectivity Growth Slowing Internet Users rose to 3B from 35MM (1995) 2) Emerging Country Growth Slowing Underdeveloped regions developed including China / Emerging Asia / Midd

36、le East which rose to 69% of global GDP growth from 43%. 3) Government Debt Rising ( Morgan Stanley Research, Magna, RAB, OAAA, IAB, NAA, PIB (1980-2015) Note: Data adjusted for inflation and shown in 2015 U.S. dollars. Television consists of cable and broadcast television advertising. Radio consist

37、s of network, national spot, local spot, and streaming audio advertising. Internet consists of mobile and desktop advertising. $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 01234567891011121314151617181920 Advertising Expenditures ($B) Years Internet Television Radio Advertising Expenditure Ramp by Channel, First

38、20 Years, USA, 1926 2015 (In 2015 Dollars) KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 55 Retailing Channels Evolve With Time. Shaped by Evolution of Technology + Distribution KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 56 Evolution of Commerce Over Past 2 Centuries, USA = Stores More Stores Malls E-Commerce Source: McKi

39、nsey Image: Wikipedia.org, B, Cbsd.org, D, R, F, C, Z Note: Millennials defined as those born between 1980 and 2000. In 2015, they are ages 15-35. Gen X defined as those born between 1965 and 1979. In 2015, they are ages 36-50. Boomers defined as those born between 1946-1964. In 2015, they are ages

40、51-70. Silents defined as those born between 1925 1945. In 2015, they are ages 71 90. Note there are varying opinions on what years each generation begin and end. Department Stores Mid-1800s Shopping Malls 1950s Corner / General Stores 1800s Supermarkets 1930s Discount Chains 1950-60s Wholesale Club

41、s 1970-80s Superstores 1960-80s E-Commerce 1990s Illustrative Generational Overlap Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 57 New / Emerging Retailers Optimize for Generational Change = J.C. Penney Meijer Walmart Costco Amazon Casper 1900s 1910s 1920s

42、 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Retail Companies Founded by Decade (Illustrative Example), USA, 1900 2015 Generational Overlap Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials GI Generation Generation Z Source: KPCB, R (1900s 1980s), Ranker (1990s), Internet Retailer “2

43、016 Top 500 Guide” (2000s 2010s) Note: Companies shown above in chronological order by founding year by decade. Companies from 2000s onwards selected as diverse set of fast-growing companies based on web sales data from the Internet Retailer “2016 Top 500 Guide.” Gen Z defined as those born after 20

44、00. In 2015, they are ages 0-15. Millennials defined as those born between 1980 and 2000. In 2015, they are ages 15-35. Gen X defined as those born between 1965 and 1979. In 2015, they are ages 36-50. Boomers defined as those born between 1946-1964. In 2015, they are ages 51-70. Silents defined as t

45、hose born between 1925 1945. In 2015, they are ages 71 90. GI Generation defined as those born between 1900 1924. In 2015, they are age 91 115. Note there are varying opinions on what years each generation begin and end. KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 58 Millennials = Impacting + Evolving Retail.

46、KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 59 Millennials 27% of Population = Largest Generation, USA. Spending Power Should Rise Significantly in Next 10-20 Years Source: U.S. Census Bureau “2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates”, Bureau of Labor Statistics “Consumer Expenditure Survey 2014” N

47、ote: Millennials defined as persons born between 1980 2000. There are varying opinions on what years each generation begin and end. Population by Age Range, USA, 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 75 USA Population (MM) $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 75 Annual Expenditure ($K) Household Expenditure, Annual

48、 Average, by Age of Reference Person, USA, 2014 Millennials KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 | PAGE 60 Internet Continues to Ramp as Retail Distribution Channel = 10% of Retail Sales vs. 2% in 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (5/16) Note: E-commerce and retail sales data are seasonally adjusted. Retail sales exclude food services,