聯合國：l2017全球投資報告（252頁）.pdf

1、U N I T E D N AT I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T WORLD INVESTMENT REPORT INVESTMENT AND THE DIGITAL ECONOMY 2017 EMBARGO The contents of this Report must not be quoted or summarized in the print, broadcast or electronic media before 7 June 2017, 17:00 GMT. (1 p.

2、m. New York; 7 p.m. Geneva; 10.30 p.m. Delhi; 2 a.m. on 8 June, Tokyo) ii World Investment Report 2017 Investment and the Digital Economy NOTE UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No. E.17.II.D.3 ISBN 978-92-1-112911-3 eISBN 978-92-1-060703-2 Copyright United Nations, 2017 All rights reserved Printed at

3、 United Nations, Geneva The Division on Investment and Enterprise of UNCTAD serves as the focal point for all matters related to foreign direct investment and multinational enterprises in the United Nations System. It builds on more than four decades of experience and international expertise in rese

4、arch and policy analysis on investment and enterprise development, fosters intergovernmental consensus-building, and provides technical assistance to over 150 countries. The copyright of the material in this publication rests with UNCTAD. It may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgement is

5、requested, together with a reference to UNCTAD and this Report. A copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint should be sent to the UNCTAD Secretariat (e-mail: diaeinfounctad.org). iii Preface PREFACE In 2016, global flows of foreign direct investment fell by about 2 per cent, to $1.

6、75 trillion. Investment in developing countries declined even more, by 14 per cent, and flows to LDCs and structurally weak economies remain volatile and low. Although UNCTAD predicts a modest recovery of FDI flows in 20172018, they are expected to remain well below their 2007 peak. These developmen

7、ts are troublesome, especially considering the enormous investment needs associated with the Sustainable Development Goals, detailed in UNCTADs Action Plan for Investment in the SDGs. Progress on sustainable development and lasting peace requires more investment in basic infrastructure, energy, wate

8、r and sanitation, climate change mitigation, health and education, as well as investment in productive capacity to generate jobs and income growth. Now more than ever it is important to ensure that the global policy environment remains conducive to investment in sustainable development. UNCTAD plays

9、 an important role in this, by providing guidance on national and international investment policy regimes. Its Investment Policy Framework and Roadmap for Reform of International Investment Agreements have been used by more than 130 countries in formulating a new generation of investment policies. T

10、his years World Investment Report builds on that track record and presents policy advice on how to deal with close to 3,000 old-generation investment treaties. A key challenge for policymakers in todays global economy is digital development. The theme chapter of the Report this year shows that the d

11、igital economy is having a major impact on global patterns of investment. It provides important insights on the implications of the digital economy for investment policies designed for the analogue era, and suggests how investment policy can support digital development. I commend this Report as an i

12、mportant tool for the international investment and development community. Antnio Guterres Secretary-General of the United Nations iv World Investment Report 2017 Investment and the Digital Economy FOREWORD The digital economy is becoming an ever more important part of the global economy. It offers m

13、any new opportunities for inclusive and sustainable development. It also comes with serious policy challenges starting with the need to bridge the digital divide. Both the opportunities and challenges are top policy priorities for developing countries. The digital economy is fundamentally changing t

14、he way firms produce and market goods and services across borders. Digital multinationals can communicate with and sell to customers overseas without the need for much physical investment in foreign markets. Their economic impact on host countries is thus more ethereal and less directly visible in p

15、roductive capacity generation and job creation. And, today, the digital economy is no longer just about the technology sector and digital firms, it is increasingly about the digitalization of supply chains across all sectors of the global economy. The digital transformation of international producti

16、on has important implications for investment promotion and facilitation, and for regulations governing investor behaviour. Rules designed for the physical economy may need to be reviewed in light of new digital business models. Some countries have already taken steps to modernize policies; others fa

17、ce the risk of letting rules become obsolete or of unintentionally slowing down digital development. Because it is not just about digital multinationals. It is also about developing domestic digital capacities. Many countries around the world have development strategies for the digital economy. Yet

18、most of these strategies fail to adequately address investment issues. And those that do tend to focus exclusively on investment in telecommunication infrastructure. The investment policy dimension of digital development strategies should be broadened to enabling domestic firms to reap the benefits

19、of digitalization and easier access to global markets. The World Investment Report 2017 makes a cogent argument for a comprehensive investment policy framework for the digital economy. It demonstrates how aligning investment policies with digital development strategies will play a pivotal role in th

20、e gainful integration of developing countries into the global economy and in a more inclusive and sustainable globalization in the years to come. This is an indelible contribution to the discourse on how to narrow the digital divide and meet the enormous investment challenges of the 2030 agenda on s

21、ustainable development. I commend this report to the SDG policy community. Mukhisa Kituyi Secretary-General of UNCTAD v Acknowledgements ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The World Investment Report 2017 (WIR17) was prepared by a team led by James X. Zhan. The team members included Richard Bolwijn, Bruno Casella, Ha

22、med El- Kady, Kumi Endo, Thomas van Giffen, Michael Hanni, Klmn Kalotay, Joachim Karl, Hee Jae Kim, Ventzislav Kotetzov, Isya Kresnadi, Guoyong Liang, Hafiz Mirza, Shin Ohinata, Diana Rosert, Astrit Sulstarova, Claudia Trentini, Elisabeth Tuerk, Joerg Weber and Kee Hwee Wee. Research support and inp

23、uts were provided by Jorun Baumgartner, Lorenzo Formenti, Mark Huber, Malvika Monga and Linli Yu. Contributions were also made by Dafina Atanasova, Charalampos Giannakopoulos, Natalia Guerra, Mathabo Le Roux, Anthony Miller, Abraham Negash, Moritz Obst, Sergey Ripinsky, Jacqueline Salguero Huaman, I

24、lan Strauss as well as interns Anastasia Bessonova, Mohamed Mrad Namji and Armando Pascale. Statistical assistance was provided by Bradley Boicourt, Mohamed Chiraz Baly and Lizanne Martinez. The manuscript was edited with the assistance of Caroline Lambert and copy- edited by Lise Lingo. Pablo Corti

25、zo was responsible for the design of charts, maps and infographics; he and Laurence Duchemin typeset the report. Production of WIR17 was supported by Elisabeth Anodeau-Mareschal, Anne Bouchet, Nathalie Eulaerts, Rosalina Goyena, Peter Navarrette, Sivanla Sikounnavong and Katia Vieu. WIR17 benefited

26、from the advice of Michael Kende. At various stages of preparation, in particular during the expert meetings organized to discuss drafts, the team received comments and inputs from these experts: Azar Aliyev, Robert Atkinson, Nathalie Bernasconi, Philippa Biggs, Lisa Borgatti, Jansen Calamita, Patri

27、ce Chazerand, Silvia Constain, Christopher Foster, Torbjrn Fredriksson, Xiaolan Fu, Ambika Khurana, Markus Krajewski, Simon Lacey, James Lockett, Fernando Loureiro, Erik van der Marel, Makane Mose Mbengue, Teresa Moreira, Jan Mischke, Ghislain Nkeramugaba, Davide Rigo, Cristin Rodrguez Chiffelle, St

28、ephan Schill, Jagjit Singh Srai, Leonard Stiegeler, Alykhan Vira and Eric White. Also acknowledged are comments received from other UNCTAD divisions as part of the internal peer review process, as well as comments from the Office of the Secretary-General. The United Nations Cartographic Section prov

29、ided advice for the regional maps. Numerous officials of central banks, government agencies, international organizations and non-governmental organizations also contributed to WIR17. In addition, UNCTAD appreciates the support of all the MNE and IPA executives who responded to its 2017 World Investm

30、ent Prospects and Investment Promotion Agencies surveys. The financial support of the Government of Sweden is gratefully acknowledged. vi World Investment Report 2017 Investment and the Digital Economy ABBREVIATIONS ACP African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooper

31、ation ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations AU African Union BEPS base erosion and profit shifting BIT bilateral investment treaty BRICS Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, South Africa CETA Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement CFIA Cooperative and Facilitation Investment Agreemen

32、t CFIUS Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States CFTA Continental Free Trade Agreement (Africa) CIDS Center for International Dispute Settlement CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CMO contract manufacturing organization COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CSR corpora

33、te social responsibility EAC East African Community ECT Energy Charter Treaty EPA economic partnership agreement ESG environmental, social and governance ETEA economic and trade expansion agreement FET fair and equitable treatment FfD Financing for Development FIE foreign-invested enterprise FTA fre

34、e trade agreement GVC global value chain IIA international investment agreement ICSID International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes ICTs information and communication technologies IPA investment promotion agency IPFSD Investment Policy Framework for Sustainable Development ISDS investor

35、State dispute settlement ISP internet service provider IT information technology ITU International Telecommunication Union IXP internet exchange point LDC least developed country LLDC landlocked developing country M reforming investment dispute settlement; promoting and facilitating investment; ensu

36、ring responsible investment; and enhancing systemic consistency. Reforming dispute settlement is high on the agenda, with concrete steps undertaken (e.g. reform- oriented clauses in new treaties, work on the establishment of an international investment court), including at the multilateral level. In

37、vestment facilitation has become an area of increased interest, and UNCTADs Global Action Menu on Investment Facilitation has obtained strong support from all investment and development stakeholders. Moreover, recent treaties include new language that preserves host States right to regulate or foste

38、rs responsible investment. It is time to move to phase 2 of IIA reform: modernizing the existing stock of old-generation treaties. Old treaties abound: more than 2,500 IIAs in force today (95 per cent of all treaties in force) were concluded before 2010. Old treaties “bite”: as of end-2016, virtuall

39、y all known ISDS cases were based on those treaties. And old treaties perpetuate inconsistencies: their continued existence creates overlaps and fragmentation in treaty relationships and poses interaction challenges. UNCTAD presents and analyses the pros and cons of 10 policy options for phase 2 of

40、IIA reform: (1) jointly interpreting treaty provisions; (2) amending treaty provisions; (3) replacing “outdated” treaties; (4) consolidating the IIA network; (5) managing relationships between coexisting treaties; (6) referencing global standards; (7) engaging multilaterally; (8) abandoning unratifi

41、ed old treaties; (9) terminating existing old treaties; and (10) withdrawing from multilateral treaties. Countries can adapt and adopt these options to pursue the reforms set out in the Road Map in line with their policy priorities. Determining which of these 10 policy options is right for a country

42、 in a particular situation requires a careful and facts-based cost- benefit analysis, while addressing a number of broader challenges. Strategic challenges include preventing “overshooting” of reform, which would deprive the IIA regime of its purpose of protecting and promoting investment. Systemic

43、challenges arise from gaps, overlaps and 79% 21% Restriction/Regulation Liberalization/Promotion National investment policy measures Total IIAs 3,324 37 in 2016 + ISDS cases 62New $1.75 trillion chaper 1-2 chaper 3 chaper 4 Global FDI 2016 Global FDI fows Developed $1 032 bn Developing $646 bn Trans

44、ition $68 bn 20052016 Cautiously optimistic for 2017 +5% 2%- A growing role of SO-MNEs in the global economy 1 500 State-owned MNEs foreign 86 000 affliates Phase 2 IIA reform options10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 lost growth momentum UNCTADs NEW Top 100 Digital MNEs Less than of25 Strategies Digital Devel

45、opment % Asset light: 70% sales abroad 40% assets abroad Investment cost estimates: More stock exchanges introducing sustainability reporting guidance 20042017 1 32 79% 21% Restriction/Regulation Liberalization/Promotion National investment policy measures Total IIAs 3,324 37 in 2016 + ISDS cases 62

46、New $1.75 trillion chaper 1-2 chaper 3 chaper 4 Global FDI 2016 Global FDI fows Developed $1 032 bn Developing $646 bn Transition $68 bn 20052016 Cautiously optimistic for 2017 +5% 2%- A growing role of SO-MNEs in the global economy 1 500 State-owned MNEs foreign 86 000 affliates Phase 2 IIA reform

47、options10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 lost growth momentum UNCTADs NEW Top 100 Digital MNEs Less than of25 Strategies Digital Development % Asset light: 70% sales abroad 40% assets abroad Investment cost estimates: More stock exchanges introducing sustainability reporting guidance 20042017 1 32 xii World I

48、nvestment Report 2017 Investment and the Digital Economy fragmentation that create coherence and consistency problems. Coordination challenges require prioritizing reform actions, finding the right treaty partners to implement them and ensuring coherence between reform efforts at different levels of

49、 policymaking. Capacity challenges make it hard for smaller countries, particularly least developed countries, to address the deficiencies of old-generation IIAs. Comprehensive regime reform would benefit from intensified multilateral backstopping. UNCTAD, through its three pillars of work research and policy analysis, technical assistance and intergovernmental consensus-building can play a key role, as the United Nations focal point for international investment and the international forum for high-level and inclusive discussions on todays multilayered and