2020 非洲疫情應對報告 - 非洲報告（英文版）.pdf

1、The Africa Report Subscribe now to get the full picture Discover The Africa Report The effect that the Covid-19 pandemic is having and the pro- found shake-up it will provoke is critical to a continent already struggling under debt burdens and tired regimes. Inside is a deep dive into the political,

2、 economic and societal changes ahead COVID-19 HOW AFRICA CAN NAVIGATE THE PANDEMIC The Africa Report Subscribe now to get the full picture Discover The Africa Report Contents 03 INTERVIEW Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala 05 SOUTH AFRICA Will Ramaphosa seize a revolutionary moment? 06 DIPLOMACY Growing US-China c

3、old war plays out in Africa 07 CONFLICT War in the time of Covid-19 07 POLICY Presidents put to the Covid-19 test 08 HEALTH How the pandemic is reshaping healthcare systems 09 OIL Will Dangote lose his bet on Nigerias me- ga-refinery? 09 INVESTMENT Temperature check 10 SOLUTIONS The silver linings c

4、lub 12 INTERVIEW Abdul Samad Rabiu How is Africa faring in the face of the most challenging political and economic phenomenons of our times? Will Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote lose his shirt in the buildout of his new refinery, as energy prices come tumbling down or will it actually prove the b

5、est bet for Nigerias oil re- serves as the world transitions to green energy? And with leading political elites succumbing to the virus, such as Nigerias powerful chief of staff Abba Kyari, will African healthcare systems be reshaped for the better? In this collection of reporting from our latest ed

6、ition, we wanted to give you a snapshot of the progress and the challenges. One of the first casualties of the coronavirus was international sol- idarity. Yes, we have seen creeping nationalism ok, galloping nation- alism - in recent years: from Brexit to Hindu Power to America First. But the Covid-

7、19 pandemic provoked state-driven interceptions of cargoes of protective medical equipment, as each country sought to corner sup- plies. Similar national concerns are emerging over vaccines. In our interview with Ngozi Okonjo- Iweala, who wants to be the first African and first woman to run the Worl

8、d Trade Organisation, she points out that the global trading system has prevented trade wars. And she insists that vaccines have to be depoliticised and made available, not just for global equity but also for self-interested rea- sons tackling the virus everywhere is the only way we can ensure it wi

9、ll be fully extinguished. That ability to thread the needle of self-interest and broader concern is taken up by the various pieces we present here: how can Africa, for example, navigate the metasta- sising face-off between the US and China something that former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair tells us

10、is a constant concern for the dozen or so African presidents he communicates with on WhatsApp. But it is not all doom and gloom. We also spoke to some eternal optimists. One, industrialist Abdul Samad Rabiu chairman of Nigerias BUA Group tells us he is not going anywhere. For him, Africa is the grea

11、test opportunity for agribusiness this century, and Nigeria the best exemplar. Rabiu, whose conglomerate managed to rake in $60m in profit in the first quarter of the year despite the upheaval, says Africa should use this moment to re-orient itself away from the export of its raw commodities and sta

12、rt the long, difficult but ultimately rewarding process of adding value. And also we reached out to the deep thinkers to get their perspec- tives, too from leading Ethiopian writer Maaza Mengiste to economist Abebe Selassie. WANTED: SOLIDARITY AND SCIENCE NICHOLAS NORBROOK EDITORIAL COVER PHOTO: SYL

13、VAIN CHERKAOUI/SIPA This PDF is free, and not for resale / Think green! Only print if necessary BRACE FOR IMPACT / 2 The Africa Report Subscribe now to get the full picture Discover The Africa Report Interview by PATRICK SMITH Amid the pandemic and a revival of economic nationalism, the World Trade

14、Organisation (WTO)s mission of economic integration faces a critical test. Member states say it has to reform to survive. Of the eight candidates vying for the director-generals job, three are from Africa (see page 18) and The Africa Report is publishing inter- views with all three. Here is the firs

15、t, with Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. The others will appear on www. TAR: Multilateralism is in retreat. Doesnt that make the WTO an irrelevant organisation? NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA: Multilateralism has never been needed more than now. The Covid-19 pandemic has shown it is needed because there are simply some th

16、ings in the world that bilateral or even sub-regional solutions cannot solve. The same applies to trade. A multilateral trading system is one that can produce results for all, win-win solutions. And the WTO is squarely at the centre of that. Does the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), to

17、be launched next year, comply with WTO rules? Internal Africa trade is just 15% and Africas annual total trade growth has fallen from 5% to 3% in recent years. In fact, its been stagnating at around 3%. So whatever can be done multilater- ally to increase that trade and to increase intra-Africa trad

18、e would be a good thing. I think that the negotiations of the AfCFTA have The world system stopped trade wars The former managing director of the World Bank is running for the top job at the World Trade Organisation when Roberto Azevdo steps down at the end of August NGOZI OKONJO- IWEALA SIMON DAWSO

19、N/BLOOMBERG/GETTY INTERVIEW This PDF is free, and not for resale / Think green! Only print if necessary BRACE FOR IMPACT / 3 The Africa Report Subscribe now to get the full picture Discover The Africa Report been done in such a way as to be complementary to the WTO, so that the WTO can help the cont

20、inent do better. The pandemic has prompted more distrust of global supply chains and a shift back to local production. How should the WTO deal with that? This is one of the most important questions. We will surely have more pandemics and epidemics, and how we deal with them with respect to world tra

21、de will be important. On WTO rules, to some extent, countries can decide on export restrictions, provided theyre temporary, transparent and proportionate and notified. . So we should make sure that this does not become a reason to block trade. How do trade rules affect public goods such as vaccines

22、and pharmaceuticals? As the chair of Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation, Im seeing it from the front lines. We want to make sure we dont have a situation where access to vaccines for countries where they are not made is blocked. The world is so interconnected now that no one is safe until

23、 everyone is safe. This is an area where we need to think through the trade regime and the rules that govern these kinds of products, whilst respecting countries desire for security. Are you confident there will be affordable and universal access to a coronavirus vaccine? The idea is to get a coalit

24、ion of countries that would be able to band together and purchase these vaccines in such a way that they will be available and distributed to rich and poor countries alike at the same time. I can tell you some good news. Theres an instrument we developed, called the Advanced Market Commitment, which

25、 several countries have supported, to sign a memorandum of under- standing with AstraZeneca and the Oxford group for 300m doses of vaccines, which will go to low- and middle- income countries. Why hasnt the WTO concluded a single round of global trade talks since 1995? Over time, theres been a growi

26、ng divide among countries and a lack of trust. I feel that theres still room to build that consensus and to come to agreements. The WTO needs a director-general who can work with the members to move forward some critical pieces. The fisheries negotiation, for instance, could be concluded and could b

27、e a very important one. It would deal with overfishing, with depletion of fish stocks which is a threat to biodiversity by getting rid of destructive subsidies that dont help. And it can also support small-scale fisheries in developing countries. Were in the midst of a global trade war, and some say

28、 running the WTO is the job from hell. Why do you want it? First, Im really passionate about trade. Trade is not an end in itself, its a means to an end. Weve seen it as an instrument that helps deliver development. And, if properly managed, those who have been marginalised can be brought in. Those

29、are things that the WTO should be looking at. Given the current schisms, how would you get agreement among the WTO members? I see the ability for develop- ing countries to benefit whilst not taking away from developed countries. To get there, you need an honest broker, someone who knows the subject

30、but with strong political and negotiating skills, the managerial skills to move things and also be someone who can listen well, who is very solutionsoriented. We have to go back to the fun- damentals: stability, predictabil- ity, non-discrimination, fairness, transparency these are the important pri

31、nciples on which the WTO and the world trading system were founded. It stopped trade wars and it can deliver again. What personal qualities would you bring to the job? To get people back to those fundamental principles, to see that sometimes when youre involved in an issue so deep down, you need som

32、eone who can step back, bring a fresh pair of eyes and ears. You need energy, you need enthusiasm, you need to see opportunity where there are chal- lenges and thats me. THE TECHNOCRATS TRAIL 13 June 1954 Born in Ogwashi Ukwu, Nigeria 1981 Earned a doctorate in economics from MIT in the US 1 Decembe

33、r 2007 Appointed managing director of the World Bank 17 August 2011 Named finance minister in the government of Goodluck Jonathan 2016 Appointed chair of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation 2018 Took a seat on the board of directors of social media platform Twitter THE WORLD IS SO INTE

34、RCONNECTED NOW THAT NO ONE IS SAFE UNTIL EVERYONE IS SAFE This PDF is free, and not for resale / Think green! Only print if necessary BRACE FOR IMPACT / 4 The Africa Report Subscribe now to get the full picture Discover The Africa Report If South Africas President Cyril Ramaphosa wanted a pretext to

35、 do radical things, this is his best chance with a global economic meltdown as collateral damage from the pandem- ic. Everyone around the governing African National Congress (ANC) is dreaming up insurgent policies. The business cabal think it is time for the ANC to dump its lukewarm Fabian socialism

36、 and let market forc- es rip. The leftists say capitalism is breathing its last and the National Democratic Revolution is dawning. That is, the state should take over those ailing conglomerates on the JSE. And they want a swingeing wealth tax on the well-fed elite, as well as land redistribution. Al

37、l of that will be needed to fund an ambitious national health insurance scheme to deal with the next pandemic. Ramaphosa and his market-minded finance minister, Tito Mboweni, agree the pandemics devastating conse- quences will force far-reaching struc- tural changes. There is no consensus about what

38、 those changes should be and who should pay for them. The economy entered a recession in the second quarter of the year as the governments lockdown measures shut down the country. The central bank predicts national output will have fallen by more than 7% by the end of 2020, the biggest drop since th

39、e Great Depression in 1931. This comes on top of Ramaphosas dire inheritance after a decade of Jacob Zumas presidency. Bonang Mohale, chairman of the giant Bidvest Group, reckons the accumulated cost of state capture by Zumas business allies at R1.5trn ($88bn). Total public debt is set to hit 80% of

40、 national in- come this year and the budget deficit is likely to be 15% of GDP. Last year, Mboweni set out a shock-therapy programme to stabilise the economy: at its core was the aim of ending bailouts for state-owned com- panies all except Eskom, the power utility. Follow the logic and Mboweni left

41、 three unpalatable options for his critics in the ANC: let the companies collapse, get rid of their remaining assets in a fire sale or privatise them. An early sign will be the fate of South African Airways. Mboweni asks why the government should pay another penny to the bloated and mismanaged state

42、 carrier. Ramaphosa is said to agree with him in private but has steered a middle course in public debate, mindful of the jobs at stake and the blow to national pride. Another dilemma looms after the government broke with precedent and borrowed $4bn from the IMF in April. It is now heading back for

43、another credit, and the negotiations will be tougher, with conditions such as cut- ting the deficit and ending bailouts. That will test Ramaphosas revolution- ary credentials in full public view. South Africa JEROME DELAY/POOL VIA REUTERS President Cyril Ramaphosa will have to let down his mask on t

44、he SAA bailout question WILL RAMAPHOSA SEIZE A REVOLUTIONARY MOMENT? This PDF is free, and not for resale / Think green! Only print if necessary BRACE FOR IMPACT / 5 The Africa Report Subscribe now to get the full picture Discover The Africa Report 200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201

45、2201320142015201620172018 0.1290.1290.7361.70.921.6 5 5.6 6.76.6 10 11.9 16.6 12.3 11.5 29.4 14.2 8.9 4 LOANS BY YEAR ($bn) The former UK prime minister Tony Blair chats with more than a dozen African presidents on his WhatsApp. The one subject they are asking most about? “They all want to know how

46、to navigate the con- frontation between China and the US,” Blair tells The Africa Report. His answer: make the African Continental Free Trade Area just the beginning of a far greater political and economic integration, to give Africa heft on the world stage. Pan-African institution building is the r

47、ight move, but even the most optimistic are talking in years, not months. So what about today, amidst soft-power and other jockeying for position between China and the US during the Covid-19 crisis? The often hysterical criticism by US cable-TV hosts of Ethiopias Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at the he

48、lm of the WHO blends into a broader US critique of debt diplomacy, whereby officials accuse Beijing of wanting to bring African countries into its orbit through underhanded infrastructure deals. But Chinese medical aid was in the African headlines this year (see page 90), and the US largely withdrew

49、 into its own worsening Covid-19 outbreaks. Beyond the US-China trade-war impacts which are not particularly welcome in a world facing a sharp downturn there are other faultlines to navigate. These are particularly sharp in technology. South Africas President Cyril Ramaphosa has already suggested the US is “jealous” in its hostility to Chinas aggressive 5G plans. Nevertheless, China does not hold all the aces while the dollar is king. Donald Trump has forbidden US companies from selling com- ponents to Huawei from 19 August. Huawei is the principal supplier for French mobile operator Orange