【公司研究】中航高科-航空復合材料核心企業新材料業務進入快速成長期-2020200630[34頁].pdf

1、 / + 2019 201915.95 YOY+12.6%173.7 C919 CR929RFPC919CR929 1000 2020-202229.14/39.24/51.45 3.93/5.36/6.89EPS0.28/0.39/0.49 PE60/44/34 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2,653 2,473 2,914 3,924 5,145 (+/-)% -12.86% -6.76% 17.80% 34.67% 31.12% 304 552 393 536 689 (+/-)% 263.85% 81.41% -28.81% 36.61% 28.47%

2、0.22 0.40 0.28 0.39 0.49 25.66 27.83 58.71 42.98 33.45 2.06 3.67 5.38 4.78 4.18 (%) 8.01% 13.19% 9.16% 11.12% 12.50% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 1,680 1,680 1,393 1,393 1,393 2020/6/29 6 19.32 16.55 12 8.3718.37 23,055 1,393 A 1,393 B/H 0/0 13 -10% 11% 32% 53% 74% 2019/72019/102020/12020/4

3、% 1M 3M 12M 4% 29% 86% -3% 19% 79% 600862 -20200317 688066 -20200618 S0550518080002 010-63210892 S0550118120003 18801026093 600862 2020-06-30 2 / 34 1. . 5 1.1. 5 1.2.+ . 7 1.3. . 10 2. . 11 2.1. . 11 2.2. . 14 2.3. . 18 3. . 21 3.1. . 21 3.1.1. . 21 3.1.2. . 24 3.2. 26 3.2.1.50%. 26 3.2.2. 28 4. .

4、30 4.1. . 30 4.2. 30 5. . 31 1 . 5 2 . 6 3 . 7 4 . 7 5 . 8 6 . 8 7 . 8 8 . 8 9 . 9 10 . 9 112015-2019 . 9 122015-2019 . 9 132015-2019. 10 142015-2019 . 10 3 / 34 152018 . 12 16. 12 17. 12 182019 . 14 19. 14 20 . 14 212019 . 14 22 . 15 232019 . 16 24. 16 25. 16 26. 17 27 . 17 28 . 18 292019 . 19 3020

5、19 . 19 312019. 19 322019. 20 332019 . 20 342019 . 20 35 . 23 36 . 23 37 . 24 38. 25 39 . 25 40-11B . 25 41-10. 25 42T800 . 26 43T800. 26 44. 26 45A380 . 26 46B-787. 28 47A-350 . 28 48C919 . 29 49CR929 . 30 50CR929 . 30 12019 . 6 2 .11 3 .11 4 . 13 5 . 15 6 . 17 7/ . 21 8F-22. 22 4 / 34 9 . 22 10. 2

6、4 11 . 26 12. 27 1320 . 28 14. 31 5 / 34 1. 1.1. 1956 198819945 20002006 20072015 5 2016 2019100% 6 / 34 42.86% 6 12019 2 303637 7 / 34 100%40% 20191795223 1.2. + 201912 100%10.05 8 / 34 2015 C/C 2019 81%77% Wind Wind 2015 2016 201641%201981% 51%12% 15%201932.8% 10%22.8% 9 / 34 Wind Wind 201510.8920

7、19 20.072019 20pct34% 201524%201931% Wind Wind 1500 20191.08 10 / 34 39% 2018 Wind Wind 1.3. 4 600 150 2018 50 4000 25 CAAC-PMA CVDCVDCVD 430 11 / 34 2 2 28,930 2,150 50 4,326 20199 201910 / 5,250 / 2019 201910 2. 2.1. 90% 3 C/C 12 / 34 1/3 49% 70% 152018 16 17 13 / 34 973863 4 2012.1.4 2012.7.9 201

8、3.10.22 2020570% 2016.7.28 2016.10.18 20162020 2016.11.29 2017.4.28 2017.11.20 2018-2020 2018.3.13 20182020 T800M55J 20017 2001 1 14 / 34 20192.67 7 90% 80% 40%20% 182019 19 2019 2.63pct68% 201912000 2018 20 212019 2.2. 15 / 34 22 80% 5 CFRP TS TP C/C CFRM CFRC - CFRR - 16 / 34 232019 60 24 25 17 /

9、34 26 27 6 Tg/ AC531/CCF800 230 M21EA BA9918/T800 200 3900-2 5228A/CCF800 220 M21 5228A/CCF300 220 M21 9916/CCF300 200 M21 5224/CCF300 220 3501-6 3266RTM/CCF300 131 3228RTM/CCF300 145 5284RTM/CCF300 220 AC520/CCF800 210 6421RTM/CCF300 279 QY8911-IV/ZT7H 256 AC729RTM/CCF300 432 BMP316/T300 330 LP-15/

10、T300 316 BMP350/T300 399 AC721/CCF300 435 HT400/CCF300 455 BMP420/CCF300 464 HT500/CCF800 600 18 / 34 2.3. 202533 201916 12.6%2019 202533 13% 28 2019 3.62 23.00%2019 173.7201825.36% 108.5 62.39% 19 / 34 292019 302019 201970% 2019 69.1% T1100GIM10 +RTM 312019 20195.8 48.228% 20 / 34 90% 15% 322019 20

11、195.8 37% 20192.12 72.5%2020 20192154 3.70% 2019 150.7735.26% 332019 342019 21 / 34 3. 3.1. 3.1.1. 25%30% 60 10%-45% F-22 24% 7/ % F-111 1142 866 24 F-14 1005 825 18 F-15 527 395 25 F-5 119 85 30 AV-8B 1143 949 17 F-18 1843 1641 11 AV-8B 229 171 25 B-1 1485 829 44 F-5 34 25 26 B-1 87 73 16 F-4 64 42

12、 20 C-5 241 190 21 B-1 74 61 18 F-15 112 89 21 A-7 123 74 40 F-111 20 17 15 F-16 53 42 20 B-1 147 129 12 22 / 34 8F-22 S-2/XU71787 IM7/5250-4 IM7/PR500RTM IM7/APC-2 IM7/5250-4 IM7/APC-2 IM7/PR500RTM IM7/5250-4 IM7/5250-4 IM7/5250-4RTM IM7/5250-4RTM IM7/5250-4 IM7/5250-4 RTM IM7/5250-4 IM7/52504 IM7/

13、977-3 IM7/PR500RTM 160 2 380 60-10 -1115 9 23 / 34 10% 20%50% T300 - F14 B777 F/A-18 B787 -10 ARJ21 C919 60 20%-40% 50%F-3536% 50%NH-90 95% 2009 65%3629kg 3000300170003000 35 36 6070 80 8-II5I 1%19.5 -11B 10B/C10%-20 24 / 34 20% 10 F-16 1978 3.0% 2.0% 83.0% 5.0% F-17Y 8.0% 7.0% 73.0% 10.0% F/A-18A/B

14、 1980 9.5% 12.0% 50.0% 15.0% F/A-18C/D 1986 10.0% 13.0% 50.0% 16.0% B-1 1986 29.0% 21.0% 41.0% 9.0% B-2 1991 38.0% 26.0% 19.0% 6.0% C-17 1992 8.1% 10.3% 69.3% 12.3% F/A-18E/F 2002 23.0% 15.0% 29.0% 14.0% F/A -22 2005 24.0% 41.0% 15.0% 5.0% F-35 2008 36.0% 27.0% 37 3.1.2. World Air Forces 2020201912

15、3210132664163 -7-8 J-7J-8 90J-10 J-16 25 / 34 J-20 J-7J-8 38 39 World Air Forces 2020 World Air Forces 2020 T300/T700 T300T700 -10J-11J-15J-20 40-11B 41-10 T300T700T800H T800H 2018 T800H 26 / 34 42T800 43T800 3.2. 3.2.1. 50% 20%-30% 44 45A380 11 27 / 34 50%A310 A320A340-500/600 A380A400 A350XWB 80B-

16、757 4%B787A350XWB 50%52% 12 Airbus 28 / 34 46B-787 47A-350 Boeing Airbus 3.2.2. 201810712.32 12.6%6.110.9% 20 5.2%6%9000 50102038 4.0821%10344 13 C9192021CR929 2007 150C9192017 29 / 34 2021 CR929 C919CR929 C919 12% 25%C919 CR929280 12000B787A350CR929 50%CR929RFP 2018CR929/ /3500 15 6 48C919 30 / 34

17、49CR929 50CR929 C91972.5 CR92928012000245 C919 C91928815 CR929200 C919CR929 4. 4.1. + 2020-202229.14/39.24/51.453.93/5.36/6.89 C919 CR929RFP 2020 28.08YOY+36.88%5.14 YOY+53.43%20212022 30%-35% 2018 4.2. 31 / 34 14 Wind 2020629 5. 1 2 3 32 / 34 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 1,918 1,

18、238 1,243 1,445 564 402 549 705 0 0 0 0 -11 17 24 29 666 985 1,297 1,661 249 170 116 119 1,489 2,316 3,118 3,917 0 0 0 0 265 343 380 424 12 5 0 0 4,338 4,882 6,037 7,448 -249 -17 -23 -30 368 -279 -396 -335 111 111 111 111 14 -6 -5 -5 1,215 1,463 1,631 1,825 947 292 265 483 462 538 574 617 -19 -451 -

19、260 -281 0 0 0 0 63 -522 0 0 2,202 2,507 2,684 2,886 -266 322 687 735 6,541 7,389 8,721 10,333 230 0 0 0 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 1,397 1,888 2,512 3,239 78 389 460 558 0.40 0.28 0.39 0.49 16 16 16 16 3.00 3.08 3.46 3.96 1,848 2,582 3,365 4,272 0.68 0.21 0.19 0.35 260 260 260 260 245 245 245 245 -6.8% 17.8% 34.7% 31.