世界經濟論壇（WEF）：2022年全球風險報告（英文版）（115頁）.pdf

1、I N S I G H T R E P O R TIn partnership with Marsh McLennan, SK Group and Zurich Insurance GroupThe Global Risks Report 202217th EditionThe Global Risks Report 202217th EditionStrategic PartnersMarsh McLennanSK GroupZurich Insurance GroupAcademic AdvisersNational University of Singapore Oxford Marti

2、n School, University of Oxford Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, University of Pennsylvania The Global Risks Report 20224Preface56Executive Summary710CHAPTER 1Global Risks 2022: Worlds Apartincluding Global Risks Perception Survey 20212022 Results1129CHAPTER 2Disorderly Climate

3、Transition3044CHAPTER 3Digital Dependencies and Cyber Vulnerabilities4556CHAPTER 4Barriers to Migration 5769CHAPTER 5Crowding and Competition in Space7079CHAPTER 6Refreshing Resilience8091AppendicesAppendix A: Description of Global Risks 2022Appendix B: Executive Opinion Survey National Risk Percept

4、ionsAppendix C: Technical Notes: Global Risks Perception Survey 2021202292112Acknowledgements113116CONTENTSThe Global Risks Report 20225A divergent economic recovery from the crisis created by the pandemic risks deepening global divisions at a time when societies and the international community urge

5、ntly need to collaborate to check COVID-19, heal its scars and address compounding global risks.In some societies, rapid progress on vaccination, leaps forward on digitalization and a return to pre-pandemic growth rates herald better prospects for 2022 and beyond. Others could be weighed down for ye

6、ars by struggles to apply even initial vaccine doses, combat digital divides and find new sources of economic growth. Widening disparities within and between countries will not only make it more difficult to control COVID-19 and its variants, but will also risk stalling, if not reversing, joint acti

7、on against shared threats that the world cannot afford to overlook.Last years edition of the Global Risks Report warned of potential knock-on economic risks that are now clear and present dangers. Supply chain disruptions, inflation, debt, labour market gaps, protectionism and educational disparitie

8、s are moving the world economy into choppy waters that both rapidly and slowly recovering countries alike will need to navigate to restore social cohesion, boost employment and thrive. These difficulties are impeding the visibility of emerging challenges, which include climate transition disorder, i

9、ncreased cyber vulnerabilities, greater barriers to international mobility, and crowding and competition in space.Restoring trust and fostering cooperation within and between countries will be crucial to addressing these challenges and preventing the world from drifting further apart.The 17th editio

10、n of the Global Risks Report identifies tensions that will result from diverging trajectories and approaches within and between countries and then examines the risks that could arise from such tensions. This years report also highlights the implications of these risks for individuals, governments an

11、d businesses.The Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), which has underpinned the report since 2006, was refreshed this year to gather new and broader insights from nearly 1,000 global experts and leaders who responded. The 2021-2022 GRPS includes the following sections: COVID-19 Hindsight invites r

12、espondents to opine on the reverberations of the crisis, allowing comparability with the results from the previous year. Future Outlook captures respondent sentiment, informing our analysis of how individual contexts may influence global risk perceptions andaffect mitigation. Horizon captures respon

13、dents perceived trajectory and sense of urgency of global risks, informing our analysis of choices and trade-offs that decision-makers may face. Severity ranks potential damage while Effects asks respondents to consider cascading impacts in conjunction with the severity of the risk itself. Internati

14、onal Mitigation asks respondents to assess international efforts in 15 global governance areas to identify achievements and areas of opportunity for global action and cooperation. Open questions on risks, trends and warning signs source expert knowledge.PrefaceSaadia Zahidi, Managing DirectorThe Glo

15、bal Risks Report 20226This year the Global Risks Report also draws on the views of over 12,000 country-level leaders who identified critical short-term risks to their 124 countries, gathered through the World Economic Forums Executive Opinion Survey. The areas highlighted in these responses are like

16、ly to inform national decision-making and provide a perspective on how short-term risk national priorities may compare with global risks and perspectives. We are ever grateful to our partners in the reports development: Marsh McLennan, SK Group and Zurich Insurance Group. We also thank our academic

17、partners: the National University of Singapore, the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford and the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the University of Pennsylvania.This report continues to leverage the collective intelligence of an expanding community of the worlds f

18、oremost risk experts, convened by the World Economic Forums Global Risks Practice: the Global Risks Report Advisory Board, the Chief Risk Officers Community and the Global Future Council on Frontier Risks, as well as a series of consultations with regional and thematic experts from the public and pr

19、ivate sectors.The report also draws from and supports the World Economic Forums platforms dedicated to catalysing a new economy and society, accelerating climate action for people and planet, leveraging Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies, stewarding industry transformations and enhancing glob

20、al and regional cooperation. These platforms and their stakeholders use the insights from this report to shape their agendas for tackling the worlds greatest challenges and embedding greater resilience and cooperation.The Global Risks Report 20227As 2022 begins, COVID-19 and its economic and societa

21、l consequences continue to pose a critical threat to the world. Vaccine inequality and a resultant uneven economic recovery risk compounding social fractures and geopolitical tensions. In the poorest 52 countrieshome to 20% of the worlds peopleonly 6% of the population had been vaccinated at the tim

22、e of writing. By 2024, developing economies (excluding China) will have fallen 5.5% below their pre-pandemic expected GDP growth, while advanced economies will have surpassed it by 0.9%widening the global income gap.The resulting global divergence will create tensionswithin and across bordersthat ri

23、sk worsening the pandemics cascading impacts and complicating the coordination needed to tackle common challenges including strengthening climate action, enhancing digital safety, restoring livelihoods and societal cohesion and managing competition in space.The Global Risks Report 2022 presents the

24、results of the latest Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), followed by an analysis of key risks emanating from current economic, societal, environmental and technological tensions. The report concludes with reflections on enhancing resilience, drawing from the lessons of the last two years of the

25、COVID-19 pandemic. The key findings of the survey and the analysis are summarized below.Global risks perceptions highlight societal and environmental concernsAsked to take a view of the past two years, respondents to the GRPS perceive societal risksin the form of “social cohesion erosion”, “liveliho

26、od crises” and “mental health deterioration”as those that have worsened the most since the pandemic began. Only 16% of respondents feel positive and optimistic about the outlook for the world, and just 11% believe the global recovery will accelerate. Most respondents instead expect the next three ye

27、ars to be characterized by either consistent volatility and multiple surprises or fractured trajectories that will separate relative winners and losers.For the next five years, respondents again signal societal and environmental risks as the most concerning. However, over a 10-year horizon, the heal

28、th of the planet dominates concerns: environmental risks are perceived to be the five most critical long-term threats to the world as well as the most potentially damaging to people and planet, with “climate action failure”, “extreme weather”, and “biodiversity loss” ranking as the top three most se

29、vere risks. Respondents also signalled “debt crises” and “geoeconomic confrontations” as among the most severe risks over the next 10 years.Technological riskssuch as “digital inequality” and “cybersecurity failure”are other critical short- and medium-term threats to the world according to GRPS resp

30、ondents, but these fall back in the rankings towards the long term and none appear among the most potentially severe, signalling a possible blind spot in risk perceptions.The 2021-2022 GRPS included a question on international risk mitigation efforts. “Artificial intelligence”, “space exploitation”,

31、 “cross-border cyberattacks and misinformation” and “migration and refugees” are the areas where most respondents believe the current state of risk mitigation efforts fall short of the challengethat is, efforts are “not started” or in “early development”. Meanwhile, for “trade facilitation”, “intern

32、ational crime” and “weapons of mass destruction”, large majorities perceived risk mitigation efforts to be “established” or “effective”.Executive SummaryThe Global Risks Report 20228A divergent economic recovery threatens collaboration on global challengesEconomic challenges flowing from the pandemi

33、c persist. The outlook remains weak: at the time of writing, the global economy was expected to be 2.3% smaller by 2024 than it would have been without the pandemic. Rising commodity prices, inflation and debt are emerging risks. Moreover, with another spike in COVID-19 cases towards the end of 2021

34、, the pandemic continues to stifle countries ability to facilitate a sustained recovery.The economic fallout from the pandemic is compounding with labour market imbalances, protectionism, and widening digital, education and skills gaps that risk splitting the world into divergent trajectories. In so

35、me countries, rapid vaccine rollout, successful digital transformations and new growth opportunities could mean a return to pre-pandemic trends in the short term and the possibility of a more resilient outlook over a longer horizon. Yet many other countries will be held back by low rates of vaccinat

36、ion, continued acute stress on health systems, digital divides and stagnant job markets. These divergences will complicate the international collaboration needed to address the worsening impacts of climate change, manage migration flows and combat dangerous cyber-risks.Short-term domestic pressures

37、will make it harder for governments to focus on long-term priorities and will limit the political capital allocated to global concerns. “Social cohesion erosion” is a top short-term threat in 31 countriesincluding Argentina, France, Germany, Mexico and South Africa from the G20. Disparities that wer

38、e already challenging societies are now expected to widen51 million more people are projected to live in extreme poverty compared to the pre-pandemic trendat the risk of increasing polarization and resentment within societies. At the same time, domestic pressures risk stronger national interest post

39、ures and worsening fractures in the global economy that will come at the expense of foreign aid and cooperation.A disorderly climate transition will exacerbate inequalitiesRespondents to the GRPS rank “climate action failure” as the number one long-term threat to the world and the risk with potentia

40、lly the most severe impacts over the next decade. Climate change is already manifesting rapidly in the form of droughts, fires, floods, resource scarcity and species loss, among other impacts. In 2020, multiple cities around the world experienced extreme temperatures not seen for yearssuch as a reco

41、rd high of 42.7C in Madrid and a 72-year low of -19C in Dallas, and regions like the Arctic Circle have averaged summer temperatures 10C higher REUTERS/HEO RANThe Global Risks Report 20229than in prior years. Governments, businesses and societies are facing increasing pressure to thwart the worst co

42、nsequences. Yet a disorderly climate transition characterized by divergent trajectories worldwide and across sectors will further drive apart countries and bifurcate societies, creating barriers to cooperation.Given the complexities of technological, economic and societal change at this scale, and t

43、he insufficient nature of current commitments, it is likely that any transition that achieves the net zero goal by 2050 will be disorderly. While COVID-19 lockdowns saw a global dip in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, upward trajectories soon resumed: the GHG emission rate rose faster in 2020 than th

44、e average over the last decade. Countries continuing down the path of reliance on carbon-intensive sectors risk losing competitive advantage through a higher cost of carbon, reduced resilience, failure to keep up with technological innovation and limited leverage in trade agreements. Yet shifting aw

45、ay from carbon-intense industries, which currently employ millions of workers, will trigger economic volatility, deepen unemployment and increase societal and geopolitical tensions. Adopting hasty environmental policies will also have unintended consequences for naturethere are still many unknown ri

46、sks from deploying untested biotechnical and geoengineering technologieswhile lack of public support for land use transitions or new pricing schemes will create political complications that further slow action. A transition that fails to account for societal implications will exacerbate inequalities

47、 within and between countries, heightening geopolitical frictions. Growing digital dependency will intensify cyberthreatsGrowing dependency on digital systemsintensified by COVID-19has altered societies. Over the last 18 months, industries have undergone rapid digitalization, workers have shifted to

48、 remote working where possible, and platforms and devices facilitating this change have proliferated. At the same time, cybersecurity threats are growingin 2020, malware and ransomware attacks increased by 358% and 435% respectivelyand are outpacing societies ability to effectively prevent or respon

49、d to them. Lower barriers to entry for cyberthreat actors, more aggressive attack methods, a dearth of cybersecurity professionals and patchwork governance mechanisms are all aggravating the risk.Attacks on large and strategic systems will carry cascading physical consequences across societies, whil

50、e prevention will inevitably entail higher costs. Intangible riskssuch as disinformation, fraud and lack of digital safetywill also impact public trust in digital systems. Greater cyberthreats will also hamper cooperation between states if governments continue to follow unilateral paths to control r