【公司研究】深信服-公司深度報告：“安全+云”快速迭代持續成長-2020200630[39頁].pdf

1、 / + IT 23-4 + 820103 594123 1 2 SMB 3 1 2 3 SMB + 2020-202258.22/80.03/103.89 9.00/12.30/15.81 226.50927 IT2.0 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 3,224 4,590 5,822 8,003 10,389 (+/-)% 30.41% 42.35% 26.85% 37.46% 29.81% 603 759 900 1,230 1,581 (+/-)% 5.19% 25.80% 18.62% 36.62% 28.54% 1.47 1.86 2.20 3.01

2、3.86 60.76 61.66 87.65 64.16 49.91 10.66 10.83 15.16 12.26 9.84 (%) 17.55% 17.56% 17.29% 19.11% 19.72% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 403 409 409 409 409 2020/6/29 6 226.50 192.88 12 88.66223.10 78,874 409 A 409 B/H 0/0 2 -10% 18% 46% 74% 102% 130% 2019/72019/102020/12020/4 % 1M 3M 12M 3% 20%

3、121% -4% 9% 113% 3004543Q -20191025 0771 -20200310 S0550519100001 13810884820 S0550119110002 15652991086 S0550119110012 18811346899 300454 2020-06-30 2 / 39 1. . 5 2. +IT . 6 2.1. IT . 6 2.2. . 8 3. + . 11 3.1. 2.0+ . 11 3.2. . 13 3.3. 200-300 . 15 3.4. . 17 3.4.1. . 18 3.4.2. SMB . 19 3.4.3. . 20 4

4、. . 22 4.1. . 22 4.2. . 24 4.2.1. . 24 4.2.2. . 26 4.3. . 28 5. +. 32 6. . 33 7. . 36 3 / 39 1 . 6 2 . 7 3 . 7 4 . 8 5 6Gartner . 8 6 5CAGR37% . 8 7 5CAGR27%. 8 8 . 9 9 201926%. 9 10 . 9 11 % . 9 12 .10 13 2019 .10 14 20193.96 .10 15 .10 16 ROE . 11 17 . 11 18 2.0 . 11 19 2.0 .12 20 2.0 .12 21 .13 2

5、2 .14 23 .14 24 .14 25 .16 26 +820 .16 27 .17 28 .18 29 Gartner .19 30 201914.2% .19 31 2017 .19 32 .19 33 2018.20 34 2018 .20 35 2018.20 36 2018 .20 37 .21 38 .21 39 .22 40 .23 41 .23 42 5IT .23 43 202325 .24 4 / 39 44 2018 .24 45 .25 46 .25 47 .25 48 .26 49 .27 50 14.9% .27 51 .27 52 .28 53 aSEC.2

6、8 54 .29 55 .29 56 .29 57 .30 58 ARM .30 59 - .31 60 % .32 61 % .32 62 .32 63 .32 64 % .33 65 .33 5 / 39 1. IT 23-42008 VPN12201924.8% 2009112019 22.4%52016201914.2% 2013 +2.0 IPSA V2.0 820103 594123 1 2 SMB3 1 23 201940% 202324.9 1 23 SMB SMB 2020 2.0 6 / 39 2.0 20%201924.9%21.3% 2019 11.4 2.17 202

7、0-202258.22/80.03/103.89 9.00/12.30/15.81 2. +IT 2.1. IT IT2000 2002VPN 20052008VPN 2010 aSVaNET aSAN 20132015aCloud 6Gartner VPN 2019IT 2020 1 - 2000 VPN 7 / 39 2005 2011 2016SIP2018 EDR- 2 2013 x86 3 IT ITSD-WAN - 23-42008 8 / 39 VPN12201924.8% 200911 201922.4% 52016201914.2% 2013 6Gartner 4 56Gar

8、tner IDC 2.2. 537%30% 201945.90 42.35%7.5925.80% 20191.2720198.86 46.83%Q417.98 54.80%4.4653.60% 65CAGR37% 75CAGR27% Wind Wind 2019H171.8%11.2%2019 9 / 39 16.53%19.30% 201926% 62% 8 9201926% Wind Wind 2019 28.4444.94%12.15 39.81%5.3235% 5CAGR102.68% 80%2019 82.55% 201952.2%62.39% 10 11% Wind Wind 50

9、% 201911.424.85% 20.4%20196106 10 / 39 315851.72% 12 132019 Wind Wind 20193.96 25%11.421% 2020Q10.79 1420193.96 15 Wind Wind ROE20%5ROE20%2019ROE 19.56%201823.3% 201938.15%3158 24.85% 11 / 39 16ROE 17 Wind Wind 3. + 3.1. 2.0+ 2.02019513 2.02.0 2.0 1.02.0 2.0 75 182.0 10 IDSIPS 12 / 39 192.0 2.0 2020

10、 2018 2019 2020 202.0 13 / 39 3.2. 2.0 2.0 + 1.0 + + 01 +1467 HISLISPACS3-4 21 + 2010 20142018 2019 UTM VPN 2012 14 / 39 2015 +IDS+WAF+VPN+230 22 011.0 2.0 01 23 24 +VPN +WEB+ 15 / 39 +220 +VPN + +WEB+ + 1100 3.3. 200-300 2.0 12.0 22.0 32.0 2019 Q42.0 1212019 2.0164 94 1 2 6 4-610-10030-50 3 20 20 4

11、 WAF IPSA V 2.0 5 6 820103 594123 103+ 73% 3 WAF 30% 152 30% 16 / 39 25 594+SMB 1 +/2 10 +IPS+/+WAF(WEB/4-5 31 +IPS+WAF(WEB+6+ 54 150230% 2.040% 26+820 2019500-600IDC73.5CCID 6082.0200-300 17 / 39 3.4. VPN VPN - 20092019 22.4%Gartner SWG 1832 70% VPN2005IPSec/SSLVPN SSL VPN309 2019VPN24.8%VPN 180002

12、60 2011 70% 2019UTM 14.2% 27 IDC 18 / 39 1 2 SMB3 3.4.1. 1 2.0+ EDRVPN VPN 28 + IDC201955.7%Juniper F516.0%0.7% 1 2) 5-7 IPSAV 19 / 39 2014 2015Gartner2017 29Gartner 30201914.2% Gartner IDC 3.4.2. SMB 201722.7%18.7%17.9% 2.0 SMBB 312017 32 20 / 39 SMB 201797% 5000 201834% 332018 342018 352018 362018

13、 2019 3.4.3. APTDDoS 21 / 39 2.0 SIP 2019IDC IDC SIPFlink PBES5 SOC100100 SIPAI 99.7%120 97.85%61.4% SIPSAVE0 98.51% 50+ 6500+100300CTI 7*24400 SIP3048 2018SIP 253%2000+ 37 38 22 / 39 4. 4.1. IT 39 Hypervisor CPU Hypervisor 23 / 39 40 41 SDS SDS SDS x86 Scale-Out x86+ 425IT 20232528.5%2019 24 / 39 4

14、0%2023 24.918.8% 202320201832 SDS+HCI39% 43202325 442018 IDC IDC 4.2. 4.2.1. 1 +x86+ aCloud6-12 1-3 2 70% 25 / 39 45 46 Smartx Smartx 3 47 AWS Azure stackOutposts 150 2 AI SDDC 26 / 39 4.2.2. 20132015-2016 2020 48 aSVaSANaNETaSV aNETaSAN x86 37 27 / 39 49 2015 2019Gartner 15IT 2018 Gartner202370%201

15、9 14.9% 5014.9% 51 IDC Gartner 1 vAFvADvAC NFV + 2.0 Nutanix 28 / 39 52 53aSEC 2 PACS +6500+7*24 3SMB SMB 2020 4.3. 2020327 +2020 120250 29 / 39 54 55 IaaS VMware/ IaaSPaaS DevOps 2020IaaSPaaS 1 EDSHCI+vEDS vEDS NAS120T300MB/sHCI+EDS +EDSNASSANEB 100 2 2.02.0 2.0 3 + 56 30 / 39 + DevOpsITDevOps 57 A

16、RMARM FT-1500A/FT-2000+916920 CPU 58ARM 31 / 39 PaaS SD-WAN aSVEDS SD-WAN 59- 1) 2) 1 HCI+EDSNASSANEB 100HCI+EDS EB 2 DevOps 32 / 39 5. + 60% 61% Wind Wind 62 63 Wind Wind 2.0 2.0 33 / 39 20%201924.9%21.3% 2019 11.4 2.17 VPN EDR 64% 65 Wind Wind 20201.93 201822018555 36048.422019896640 48.85 2019201

17、82019-2021 5%12%20%33.8537.2339.89 40%30%30%1.433.14 4.5720201.93 6. 2020-202258.22/80.03/103.89 9.00/12.30/15.81 2.0 2020-2022 29%/36%/28%83.0%/83.0%/83.0% 2 34 / 39 29.7%/47.9%/38.7% 15%/18%/15% 61.0%/61.0%/61.0% 2020-202258.22/80.03/103.89 27.4%/37.5%/29.8%72.4%/72.1%/71.7% : 35 / 39 201820194.04

18、 2 2020-20223.9 /4.0%/4.0% 2018201924.2 2020-2022 24.7%/24.6%/24.3%. 2020-2022 34.0%/33.5%/33.0%-0.2%/-0.6%/-0.6% 2020-20229.00/12.30/15.81 2020-202258.22/80.03/103.89 9.00/12.30/15.81 POCF2020-2022 12.35/14.55/16.88 3.02/3.56/4.1375x226.50927 26.200.940.830.8828 32 30 41.090.680.841.1060 49 37 287.001.573.273.80183 88 75 90 56 47 PS2020-2022 58.22/80.03/103.8916x227.76 932 36 / 39 30470.5875.5788.734.3 4.0 3.4 17621.8228.6336.438.0 6.1 4.8