埃森哲：2019半導體行業技術愿景（英文版）（18頁）.pdf

1、Technology Vision 2019 Semiconductor THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY 2 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY New technologies impact industries across the board. But in the semiconductor industry, the very technologies disrupting the way companies operate are the same technologies they will use to create new products

2、 and businesses. Now is the time for semiconductor companies to take a strong position and proactively define the next generation of technologyin a dual role, as customer and producer. 2 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY 3 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY Five trends shape the near future: TREND 1: DARQ POWER TREN

3、D 2: GET TO KNOW ME TREND 3: HUMAN+ WORKER TREND 4: SECURE US TO SECURE ME TREND 5: MY MARKETS Understanding the DNA of DARQ Nine out of 10 semiconductor companies are experimenting with DARQ technologies already. DARQ technologies will not only change the semiconductor industry as they are applied

4、by semiconductor companies, they will also drive business growth. Blockchain/Distributed ledger technology is centered on driving improvements to business operations, via data provenance and faster traceability as well as enablement of compute and artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. AI and ex

5、tended reality will require custom chips. And quantum computing will introduce an entirely new universe of compute engineering. Unlock unique consumers and opportunities As silicon technology becomes commoditized, semiconductor companies are looking for ways to differentiate. Offering silicon-as-a-s

6、ervice, participating in platforms, is one way to do that. As chips become more specific in nature for targeted applications, semiconductor companies want to own a connected asset capability, versus just a piece of hardware. To do that successfully, theyll have to know their customers inside and out

7、predicting and anticipating needs before they even occur. Change the workplace or hinder the workforce Even as the workforce evolves at a rapid pace, most semiconductor companies are optimized for the workforce of the past. Moving to a digital workplace requires a workforce with digital skills. Ente

8、rprises arent victims, theyre vectors Large semiconductor companies are working to embed security into their chips and their ecosystems, knowing they are a critical link to national security as well as that of private citizens. Meet consumers and organizations needs at the speed of now Custom chips,

9、 chiplets and 5G are essential in a world of intensely customized and on-demand customer experiences. As nontraditional competitors change the semiconductor playing field, incumbents are in a race to remain relevant to their customer base. 4 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY TREND 1 DARQ POWER New technolog

10、ies are catalysts for change, offering extraordinary new business capabilities. Distributed ledger technology, artificial intelligence (AI), extended reality (XR) and quantum computing will be the next set of new technologies to spark a step change, letting businesses reimagine entire industries. DA

11、RQ technologies will not only change the semiconductor industry as they are applied, they will also drive business growth. Blockchain/Distributed ledger technology is centered on driving improvements to business operations, via data provenance and faster traceability as well as enablement of compute

12、 and AI capabilities. AI and extended reality will require custom chips. And quantum computing will introduce an entirely new universe of compute engineering. DARQ DEFINED Understanding the DNA of DARQ Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) Artificial Intelligence (AI) Extended Reality (XR) Quantum Com

13、puting Trend 1: DARQ power Nine out of 10 (87 percent) of semiconductor executives are experimenting with one or more DARQ technologies alreadyno surprise, given the semiconductor industry is high-tech. TRANSFORMATION FOR LEADERS BY 2022 5 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY Trend 1: DARQ power DARQ Businesse

14、s have the capabilities to build immersive and intelligent worlds ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE REALITY (VIRTUAL, AUGMENTED, ASSISTED) QUANTUM COMPUTING DISTRIBUTED LEDGER TECHNOLOGY Automate business functions Scan and utilize unprecedented amounts of data Training opportunities in augmented environments

15、 Transform global cybersecurity Large-scale collaboration and transaction among strangers Self-executing smart contracts and operations/ engineering management Improved provenance and trusted data Solve problems otherwise unsolvable today Discover new designs and address rising compute requirements

16、On-demand and hands free information Make the benefits of analytics more widely available D A Q R Perhaps more surprising is that 60 percent of semiconductor companies anticipate the combination of DARQ technologies will have transformational or extensive impact on their organization in a relatively

17、 short timeframeover the next three years. That impact will come in varied forms, as each technology moves the needle in its own way. DARQ technologies and some of the capabilities they enable 6 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY Trend 1: DARQ power of semiconductor companies anticipate DARQ technologies wil

18、l transform their company over the next three years.60% A majority of companies are at least piloting each DARQ technology, but 63 percent say that AI will have the greatest impact on them over the next three years. Global chip market growth projections are astronomical, with a 45.4 percent compound

19、 annual growth rate (CAGR).1 AI will drive growth not only for traditional semiconductor companies, but also non-traditional competitors (like Alibaba and Amazon) moving into the sector. AI IN THE LEAD FOR MARKET TAKE-UP Semiconductor organizations stage of adoption for each of the following emergin

20、g technologies today 55%73%77% 55% of the semiconductor executives said that they were at least piloting distributed ledgers/ blockchain today compared to 65% executives globally 73% of semiconductor executives said that they were at least piloting extended reality today compared to 62% executives g

21、lobally 77% of semiconductor executives said that they were at least piloting AI today compared to 67% executives globally Micron launched a first-of-its-kind effort to use AI technology to boost its fabrication operations. Result: AI was 25 percent faster to get to the yield target desired. It was

22、35 percent faster to get to the defect per million (DPM) levels desired than it was before.2 OPERATING MODEL: THE ART OF THE POSSIBLE USING AI 7 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY Nvidia and OmniSci are collaborating to empower data scientists with GPUs, AI and analytics. Traditional CPU-based computers dont

23、 have the capacity to handle the massive data sets organizations now want to digest for insights. Nvidia and OmniSci worked with a cable operator, for instance, whose network generates a terabyte a day.3 The operators dataset was akin to a spreadsheet with 500 million rows, a dataset that would take

24、 eight days just to ingest for analysis with traditional CPUs. Then, each data query would take several hours to run. The partners installed a GPU-based system. Its parallel-processing reduced loading time to just four minutes, allowing for queries in real-time. Instead of data scientists having to

25、wait over a week just for data to load, they now have an interactive system in less time than it takes to eat a mealand can use AI to full, speedy advantage. Established semiconductor companies can inject innovation quickly through a well-designed ecosystem. Partnering with startups can help them le

26、ap ahead on the innovation curve, saving time and money versus trying to build capabilities in-house. For example, Nanotronics is building automated microscopes that use AI and machine learning to analyze and find chip defects automatically. Manufacturers can analyze 100,000 chips within minutes.4 S

27、emiconductor companies that can partner to connect their data sets across manufacturing and other functionsworking with innovative partners to do sowill leapfrog ahead. Not only because of increased speed, but more holistic insights they can use to better run their business. Micron plans to use deep

28、 learning techniques for geometric and photometric recognition to identify defects on silicon wafers early in the manufacturing process. AI FOR SPEED ECOSYSTEMS FOR DARQ COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE Trend 1: DARQ power With AI, Micron is shifting fab management from chip facilities to remote control center

29、s, reducing the need for field personnel. 8 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY TREND 2 GET TO KNOW ME Technology-driven interactions are creating an expanding technology identitydigital demographicsfor every consumer. Trend 2: Get to know me Unlock unique consumers and opportunities This living foundation of

30、 knowledge will be key to not only understanding the next generation of consumers, but also to delivering rich, individualized, experience-based relationships in the post-digital age. Digital demographics are important in every industry, but particularly so in the semiconductor industry. Customers n

31、ow have a “real-world” demographic, but also a digital demographicwho they are in the digital world based on what they do there. In the past, semiconductor companies might design one type of chip that worked for millions of users, but now market needs are fragmenting. A chip designed for a specific

32、Internet of Things (IoT) use, like a self-driving car, is completely different than a chip designed for a user who wants to mine Bitcoin. As silicon technology becomes commoditizedtreated as hardwaresemiconductor companies are looking for ways to differentiate. Offering silicon-as-a-service, partici

33、pating in platforms, is one way to do that. As chips become more specific in nature for targeted applications, semiconductor companies want to own a connected asset capability, versus just a piece of hardware. 9 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY To do that successfully, theyll have to know their customers i

34、nside and outpredicting and anticipating needs before they even occur. 94% of semiconductor IT and business executives believe that digital demographics give their organization a new way to identify market opportunities for unmet customer needs vs 83% of global executives 81% of semiconductor execut

35、ives report that customer digital demographics is expanding the number of ways they deliver products and services either significantly or extensively vs 75% of global executives 71% of semiconductor executives expect the amount of data their organization manages about customers digital demographics

36、to increase exponentially or significantly over the next two years vs 78% of global executives 94%81%71% Trend 2: Get to know me 10 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY TREND 3 HUMAN+ WORKER Workforces are becoming human+: each individual worker is empowered by their skillsets and knowledge plus a new, constan

37、tly growing set of capabilities made possible through technology. Now, companies must adapt the technology strategies that successfully created this next-generation workforce to support a new way of working in the post-digital age. Change the workplace or hinder the workforce While semiconductor com

38、panies produce an incredibly innovative product, most5 do not offer a cutting-edge, innovative employee experience. Many will admit they act more like product companies than modern technology companies. HARDWARE VERSUS DIGITAL MENTALITY Trend 3: Human+ worker Samsung aims to have 1,000 AI developers

39、 working in five countries by 2020.To drive efforts, the company appointed ex-Google AI developer David Eun as its first chief innovation officer. The new CIOs role is to cultivate new businesses of the future on themes like AI and the fourth industrial revolution, digital. The company is searching

40、for talent outside of the corporate realm also, as it has hired two prominent American AI researchers, Sebastian Seung of Princeton University and the University of Pennsylvanias Daniel Lee. Samsung makes AI talent a priority6 10 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY 11 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY Even as the wor

41、kforce evolves at a rapid pace, most semiconductor companies are optimized for the workforce of the past. An amazing 71 percent of industry executives agree that their employees are more digitally mature than their organization, resulting in a workforce that is waiting for its organization to catch

42、up. Trend 3: Human+ worker The semiconductor manufacturing industry is fighting to attract, educate, and retain the necessary talent for its continued growth. A significant workforce gap of up to 10,000 global positions stretches the industrys ability to meet the worlds already demanding technology

43、needs.7 Enrollment in STEM education has fallen, while demand for high-skilled tech workers has increased partly because of the extraordinary growth of popular consumer-facing companies like Facebook, Amazon, Google and Netflixall of whom compete for the same talent semiconductor companies do.8 Deve

44、lopments like 5G, AI and autonomous driving require new chip architectures and improved reliabilitywhich require talent with different skill sets. Without the right workforce in place, the industry will not be able to capture the growth. Hiring and reskilling talent with the right knowledge and capa

45、bilities is essential to competitiveness. Not only does digital require new talent sets, it attracts them. Most Millennials expect to be in a Human+ workforce, working side-by-side with intelligent machines. Given semiconductor companies are in a high tech, fast-paced industry, workers expect cuttin

46、g- edge work environments. NEW WORLD REQUIRES NEW TALENT Intel has built up its programmable chips team by acquiring eASIC, a 19-year-old fabless semiconductor company. The acquisition of eASICs chip sets and talent base will help drive business in 5G and IoT. 11 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY Intel acqu

47、ires talent for 5G and IoT9 12 THE DUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY TREND 4 SECURE US TO SECURE ME While ecosystem-driven business depends on interconnectedness, those connections increase companies exposure to risks. Leading businesses are recognizing that just as they already collaborate with entire ecosyste

48、ms to deliver best-in-class products, services, and experiences, its time security joins that effort as well. Trend 4: Secure us to secure me Enterprises arent victims, theyre vectors Less than one in four semiconductor companies say they know their ecosystem partners are working to be compliant and

49、 resilient. Semiconductors are a national security concern in an industry rife with an increasing number of intellectual property violation allegations. Couple that with recent security incidents where threats are originating not from breaches within the company, but through a supplier or a partner, and security becomes a top ecosystem concern. Semiconductor companies are as vulnerable as the weakest link in their ecosystem. AS SECURE AS THE WEAKEST LINK Only 23% of semiconductor companies report they know their ecosystem partners are wor