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1、December 2022Retail TrendsForecast 2023From COVID to inflation,brick-and-mortar retail faced dramaticpressures in recent years but the space succeeded in adapting tonew constraints and proving its continued relevance.Now,with2022 almost behind us,we look at what 2023 may have in store.Brick-and-mort

2、ar retail has contented with its fair share of obstacles in recent years,fromthe lockdowns of 2020 to the seemingly never-ending COVID waves of 2021 to the high gasprices and inflation of 2022.But despite each new challenge,consumer demand forin-person retail and retail services has remained strong,

3、with key categories repeatedlybouncing back.In fact,leading retailers,dining chains,and fitness brands did more than just bounce back.Many companies uncovered opportunities to establish new channels,grow into newmarkets,and cater to new audience segments and these initiatives are already openingnew

4、avenues for brick-and-mortar success in 2023.At the same time,some of the largerchallenges facing the sector are likely to persist,which will also impact the wider retailspace going into the new year.This white paper dives into some of the key trends likely to shape the retail landscape in2023.We lo

5、oked at foot traffic data for leading brands and segments,dove into migrationflows,and analyzed office recovery patterns to predict what the coming year may have instore.Keep reading to find out what retail and retail services in the brick-and-mortarconsumer space need to know going into the new yea

6、r.Retail Media NetworksFor anyone who has followed Placer.ais content,the idea that our top trend for 2023should be retail media networks will come as little surprise.Retail media networks,long astaple of the digital world,are becoming an increasingly important part of thebrick-and-mortar environmen

7、t and the result is an exciting opportunity for retailers,landlords,and product companies alike.Retail media networks are creating an excitingopportunity for retailers,landlords,andproduct companies alike.Companies like Amazon,Best Buy,Walmart,Target,and Albertsons are all investing in thischannel a

8、s a way of increasing revenue and profitability and capitalizing on the immenselevels of traffic coming through locations.For advertisers,the key attraction lies in the level 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|1of intent of visitors and the proximity to the point of purchase that physi

9、cal locationsprovide.Looking at physical stores for their marketing and advertising value also allows retailersand the product companies that advertise through them to think about audiencesegmentation in fundamentally different ways.For example,cross-visitation between agrocer and local fitness chai

10、ns could be a far better indicator of the performance of proteinbar promotions than standard demographic analyses.Even more,retail media networksenable advertisers to think about physical store visits and their unique impressionsthrough a similar lens as that used to think of standard online or tele

11、vision placements.This makes for a better apples to apples comparison and allows advertisers to moreeffectively measure impact across all advertising channels.Yet,this is just the beginning.Investments in everything from billboards to endcaps tostadium naming rights and concert promotions also drive

12、 a more nuanced and granularability to measure and analyze.And this means better utilization and efficiency not tomention the wide opportunity that comes from a marketing channel still in its infancy.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|2The Tenant Diversity Trend Picks Up PacePre-pandem

13、ic,the defining narrative in brick-and-mortar retail was the retail apocalypse,driven heavily by widespread store closures from top retailers like Sears and K-Mart.Yet,while many previously strong anchors were shutting their doors,a far more significanttrend was emerging where retail-oriented center

14、s and malls were embracing new tenanttypes.From gyms to co-working spaces to medical practices,the growing presence ofnon-retail tenants has made a lasting and significant impact on the brick-and-mortar retaillandscape.The growing presence of non-retail tenants hasmade a lasting and significant impa

15、ct on thebrick-and-mortar retail landscape.These tenants provide a range of benefits.They increase opportunities for retailers bygenerating new off-peak traffic and reducing competition between retail tenants.Non-retail 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|3tenants also allow shopping ce

16、nter visitors to have a more holistic,immersive experiencewhich extends visit durations and gives consumers more reasons to frequent a shoppingcenter.And non-retail tenants dramatically increase optionality for landlords byempowering shopping center operators to identify the ideal tenant without the

17、 standardlimitations dictated by traditional understandings of fit.Non-retail tenants provide visitors with a moreholistic,immersive experience which extendsvisit durations and gives consumers morereasons to frequent a shopping center.The result is a unique win-win-win situation that benefits landlo

18、rds,tenants,and visitors.Expect landlords to be particularly fond of this trend as it increases their optionality in aperiod where demand for space in top tier centers is only increasing.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|4Shop-in-Shops&New Store FormatsIn addition to uncovering the no

19、n-traditional tenant trend,a more nuanced view of storeclosures also reveals the push by retailers across segments to improve their retail footprint and optimizing the actual number of locations is a major piece of this puzzle.Equallysignificant is the push to maximize the potential of each location

20、 with a greater emphasison usage of the internal space and the size of the store in general.Shop-in-ShopsStarting with maximizing the space within,retailers from Target to Kohls to Lowes havejumped headfirst into the world of shop-in-shop concepts,looking to drive visits,increasebasket size,and crea

21、te engagement with new audiences.The rationale behind thesepartnerships is relatively straightforward.The larger retailer fills a gap in its productassortment,differentiates itself from competitors,improves engagement,and increasesbasket size.The smaller retailer gets a capital-efficient way to broa

22、den its target audienceand,in many cases,leverages the larger retailers online ordering and distribution platform.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|5Leading retailers have jumped headfirst intothe world of shop-in-shop concepts,looking todrive visits,increase basket size,and createeng

23、agement with new audiences.The results so far are incredibly promising,with many retailers seeing locations withshops-in-shop benefit from greater year-over-year(YoY)and year-over-three-year(Yo3Y)visit boosts than those without.The concept also has a unique level of staying power in thatit dovetails

24、 with a rising interest in finding better ways of engaging in physical retail on thepart of different digitally native brands,product oriented companies,or even strugglingretailers.The concept emphasizes a significant,but often overlooked element of physicallocations they can serve as a platform for

25、 brands to maximize their reach.In a digital agethat has been heavily influenced by the ability to cross-sell online,leading brick-and-mortarretailers are now bringing that same capability to the physical store.Shifts in Store SizeAnother important aspect of the experimentation with new store format

26、s centers aroundshifts in store size.Whether it be embracing small-format stores or making stores evenlarger,format flexibility is a key component of maximizing a companys retail footprint.Small locations can enable retailers to maximize impact in a given market,identify the ideallocations to reach

27、core audiences,and improve the marketing value of a store all with afocus on keeping costs down.Larger locations can create space for more experientialconcepts and even advanced distribution capabilities.Format flexibility is a key component ofmaximizing a companys retail footprint.The critical idea

28、,though,is that retailers have many ways to optimize their physicalpresence beyond just choosing an appropriate site for their store.And this flexibilityempowers companies to focus more on bringing the right products to the right audiences 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|6and to max

29、imizing the impact of each location a process that will ultimately drive greatersuccess.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|7The Mall Waterfall/Rise of the B MallThe idea that the U.S.is fundamentally overmalled is almost as widespread as the retailapocalypse narrative.But while there i

30、s truth to this argument,a key trend indicates thatthe narrative may be exaggerated.The wider diversity of tenants coming to top tier malls and the growing number of brandsjostling for these now limited openings has increased competition for space,driving manypotential tenants to look elsewhere.Alte

31、rnatives include open-air lifestyle centers,downtown areas,and strip centers,as well as shop-in-shops and pop-ups.But there is also the very real potential for retailers to look at less popular malls for theirnext location and the opportunity here is significant.Retailers that had struggled to stand

32、out within a packed top-tier mall may find that their role in a lower-class mall is actuallyelevated,giving them a stronger position within the market and more sales.And if thesemalls shift their focus from competing with the regional supermalls to focusing on specificaudiences or providing differen

33、tiated experiences,the potential symbiosis can be powerful.There is very real potential for retailers to lookat less popular malls for their next location and the opportunity here is significant.Critically,the rise of lower-tier malls demands that these shopping centers embrace theopportunity and fo

34、cus on differentiation and audience targeting as means of drivingnecessary visits especially considering the strength of top tier malls is increasing,notdiminishing.But,if this shift does take place,it will prove that the magnitude to which weare in fact overmalled is far less than previously expect

35、ed.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|8 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|9Dining Facing Inflation ObstaclesThe past year has been challenging for consumers and for restaurants.Rising food andlabor costs led to steep price increases at Quick Service Restaurants(QSRs),Fas

36、t CasualRestaurants,and other dining concepts.Many chains raised menu prices byhigh-single-digit or low-double-digit percentages in the past 12 months and Chipotle is noexception.Nevertheless,the company has done exceptionally well compared topre-pandemic levels,with Yo3Y visits up each month of the

37、 year 2022.OtherMexican-themed dining chains have not seen the same success.Over the past year,Chipotle has employed several strategies to offset increased costs andboost traffic to its locations.The brands successes include new menu innovations like itsGarlic Guajillo Steak limited-time offer,effec

38、tive digital marketing,and strong performancefrom new stores(many of which feature“Chipotlanes”pickup windows and have beenlocated in smaller markets,where the chain has seen strong visitation trends as of late).Chipotle has employed several strategies tooffset increased costs and boost traffic to i

39、tslocations.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|10Chipotle has also insulated itself from price increases by attracting higher earners,whichcan be seen by comparing household income(HHI)data for the True Trade Area(TTA)ofChipotle with other Mexican-themed dining chains.In Q3 2022,over 3

40、0%of residents inChipotles TTA had a HHI of over 100K,compared to less than 26%of residents for the TTAsof other Mexican-themed dining chains.This gives Chipotle a significant advantage duringtimes of tighter consumer budgets,as high-income consumers are less likely to limit theirdaily food spending

41、 as a result of inflation-driven price increases.Migration Trends StabilizingYes,a lot of people moved to new places in recent years.And while much of this was ahastening of pre-existing trends,there are major opportunities that come from migrationshifts especially now that these patterns are settli

42、ng.In some cases,the opportunity centers around the movement of high income consumersinto new areas where first time demand can drive a significant wave of visits and spend tokey categories such as home improvement and home furnishings.The influx of newshoppers can also boost the ability of certain

43、retailers to tap into markets that might havepreviously been less capable of enjoying their offerings.For example,some wholesale club 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|11leaders saw an increase in younger visitors as former urban residents moved to largerhomes in the suburbs,giving th

44、em both the physical space at home and the proximity towholesale stores to avail themselves of membership club offerings.But migration trends are not just bringing new and affluent audiences to the suburbs theshifts are being seen in many major urban areas too.Residential areas within major citiesar

45、e seeing a boost,and there were signs early in the pandemic that newer and in somecases younger audiences were coming to major urban areas.This could provide anecessary boost and even create unique opportunities for those retailers looking to reachGen Z a cohort that is uniquely affected by physical

46、 brand engagement.Migration trends are not just bringing new andaffluent audiences to the suburbs the shiftsare being seen in many major urban areas too.The ultimate takeaway?The impact of migration shifts is significant.For those retailers,product companies,and landlords that are aware of the shift

47、s within these audiences andknow what can be done to excite them a major opportunity awaits.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|12The Office Recovery Question Will Be a DominantNarrativeThe rise of hybrid work has empowered professionals across the country to take greatercontrol over th

48、eir schedules and remove time consuming commutes.Yet,the trend hasalso had a major effect on the real estate sector,with many companies reevaluating theiroffice needs.There are also significant side effects from these decisions that impact localrestaurants and retailers for whom the traditional flow

49、 of traffic had been a significantsource of visits.So,what can we expect from the office recovery?While the visit recovery to offices in major cities throughout the country was consistentlyinching towards 2019 levels earlier in 2022,the trend has plateaued in recent months.Thiscould indicate that a

50、new equilibrium has emerged and that the current office occupancypatterns will likely serve as the new baseline.At the same time,there are an array of factorsthat muddy the waters for such a conclusion,including the challenges currently facing top 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|13t

51、ech companies,continued inflation,high gas prices,and the time it could take formigration patterns to settle.Recent trends indicate that a new equilibriumhas emerged and that the current officeoccupancy patterns will likely serve as the newbaseline.The likeliest scenario is that Q1 will bring a boos

52、t to the workplace recovery process,though a full return to pre-pandemic norms will remain elusive.Still,many workers doseem to prefer hybrid work to a fully remote model so offices will continue to play animportant function in attracting employees and promoting an appealing company culture.But the

53、changing role of the office means that location will no longer be a primary concern,since employees who come in a couple times a week will likely be willing to put up withlonger commutes.Instead,the focus will shift to investing in amenities,meeting spaces,and other placemaking elements that allow c

54、ompanies to appeal to employees and boostthe employers value and status.In addition,challenges currently facing some major 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|14employers could shift the power balance of where we work more into the hands ofemployees.Virtual work is clearly going to have

55、 a lasting impact on professional decisions and officeenvironments,but expect the conversation around the ideal long-term balance to cementitself in the coming year.Although the office recovery patterns are stabilizing,the currentsituation is likely not the endpoint.Q1s Big Retail BumpThe summer sho

56、pping season was always going to face significant challenges because ofthe difficult comparison to a particularly successful season in 2021.And the same patternwill likely happen in reverse when looking at brick-and-mortar visits to retail locations inDecember considering COVIDs impact on retail tow

57、ards the end of last year.The significant influence of the previous years unusual foot traffic patterns on YoYcomparisons will likely continue in 2023,when the start of the year could see a particularlystrong YoY boost.The Omicron variant had a massive impact on visits across the country inJanuary a

58、nd February 2022 as record COVID cases swept the nation.This sets a very lowbar that should be exceeded by many different retailers and tenant segments in 2023.Q1 2022s brick-and-mortar retail performancesets a very low bar that should be exceeded bymany different retailers and tenant segmentsin 202

59、3.Even some of the strongest performing segments like fitness saw visits plunge inJanuary,which could present an opportunity for outsized gains considering that sectorsnormally significant Q1 seasonal peak.The beginning of the year also offers anotheropportunity for retailers to drive urgency on ret

60、urns and gift card use from the holidayseason,potentially driving an even greater post-Christmas peak in visits.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|15 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|16PatienceThe pandemic kicked off an extended period of extreme volatility.While this i

61、s perhaps themost obvious statement one can make,it is very important to keep in mind.Why?Becausethere are some retailers and retail segments that have been unfairly impacted by theunique elements of this volatility that are still likely to bounce back.One compelling example is the fitness sector.By

62、 mid-2020,many were convinced that therise of Peloton and other connected fitness brands signaled the demise of physical gyms.And while connected fitness is still a very exciting segment,the prediction of a fundamentaltransformation in how we exercise was clearly premature.Fitness chains like Planet

63、 Fitness,Blink Fitness and others didnt just recover,they rebounded with such strength that theywere among the biggest winners of 2022.And the fitness segment will likely remain strong despite the economic headwinds thanks to lower monthly fees from chains like PlanetFitness,high interest in health

64、and wellness,and increased connected fitness options fromthe chains themselves.The fitness recovery story is critical because the model can be applied to other servicesegments like full-service restaurants,and retail chains like Old Navy,that were also heavilyaffected by the unique events of the las

65、t few years and that may experience a similar 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|17comeback.The recovery potential of the full-service dining category can only beappreciated in the context of the categorys strong performance every time the widerhealth or economic environments showed ev

66、en the slightest bit of forgiveness.Andpredicting what 2023 holds for retailers like Old Navy requires looking beyond the lastthree years to remember pre-pandemic trends when the driving narrative held that theretailer was so strong it needed to spin off from its parent company.Some retailers and re

67、tail segments that havebeen unfairly impacted by the unique elementsof this volatility are still likely to bounce back.Does it mean that every brand that struggled will recover with aplomb?Of course not.Butit does push us to take a wider view at both pandemic overperformers andunderperformers before

68、 we become completely convinced that a positive or negativetrajectory must,by definition,continue even as the wider environment normalizes.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|18Key Takeaways1.Retail Media Networks:In-store media networks are an exciting channel that couldhelp drive incr

69、eased revenues for retailers,landlords,and product companies.Buttheir true value comes from the shift they necessitate in widening ourunderstanding of the full potential of the retail location.Retail media networks dontjust signal a new and critical channel,but a fundamental step forward in how reta

70、ilwill evolve.2.Tenant Diversity:The definition of what belongs in a retail center is changing,andwith this blurring of traditional tenancy perspectives come powerful opportunities.Landlords are able to create more immersive experiences that augmentperformance by strengthening current non-peak perio

71、ds and creating more reasonsfor a visit.3.Format Evolutions:Retail is being defined by a push to flexibility in the overallsize of stores,in the things being sold within them,and in the places where they arelocated.From shop-in-shop concepts to adjusting store footprints to drive moreexciting innova

72、tions and/or to reach different audiences in premium locations theshift is on and its impact will be significant.This is especially true because itempowers retailers to maximize the impact of each store,and to identify the idealpath to market penetration less limited by traditional constraints.4.Mal

73、l Waterfall:Top tier malls are thriving and the result has been a major push byretailers to increase their presence in these locations.This is happening at the sametime as many of these malls are looking to decrease their focus on traditionaltenants and widen their focus to non-traditional tenants.T

74、he result is greatercompetition for limited spaces.So where will the tenants go?While there are arange of options,one area that could see an immediate boost is second tier malls.And if they embrace the shift and focus on differentiation and better audiencetargeting,the wider bump that top tier malls

75、 have seen could drive a trickle downprocess of success to others below.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|195.Dining Resilience:COVID and inflation have challenged many major dining chains,but the ability of companies such as Chipotle to overcome the successive obstaclesindicates that

76、 the right strategy can still lead to success.Other dining conceptslooking to offset rising costs by boosting traffic can learn from Chipotles approachand introduce menu innovations,engage in effective digital marketing,and opennew stores and drive-thrus in smaller,high-demand markets.6.Migration:Mi

77、gration patterns are settling,which is enabling companies to betterunderstand which shifts were longer-lasting and which were more a“flash in thepan”.The result is an opportunity to focus efforts on addressing new needs earlyand grabbing a first-mover advantage to serve and develop relationships wit

78、hrecently migrated audiences.7.Office:Office work was fundamentally disrupted over COVID,and while a comebackhas certainly occurred,visits are still far from where they were pre-pandemic.Whilevirtual works impact will clearly last,the true magnitude is still unclear but thelong-term effects of the s

79、hift to hybrid and remote work should become far clearerin the coming year.In short,the“new normal”is not here yet,but we should be ableto define it in 2023.8.Q1 Retail Bump:The rise of Omicron had a heavy effect on brick-and-mortarperformance in Q1 of 2022,and this low bar should give some sectors

80、the chance toshow outsized gains to start the year.The Q1 2023 bump could be especiallyimportant for segments like fitness,which traditionally see major peaks to start theyear.9.Patience:The pandemic kicked off an extended multi-year period of tremendousvolatility.And as a result,some companies and

81、segments look much worse or insome cases better than they should.The need for patience is critical as the returnof greater degrees of retail normalcy will provide significant boosts to some andlimitations to others.But the question of how much of the success/failure for thischain is related to external factors and not their core strength is a significant one tokeep in mind.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|20