Gartner：2020年十大戰略技術趨勢（英文版）(52頁).pdf

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1、Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2020 Published: 21 October 2019 ID: G00432920 Analyst(s): David Cearley, Nick Jones, David Smith, Brian Burke, Arun Chandrasekaran, CK Lu Strategic technology trends have the potential both to create opportunity and to drive significant disruption. Enterprise a

2、rchitecture and technology innovation leaders must evaluate these top trends to determine how combinations of trends can power their innovation strategies. Key Findings Strategic technology trends have significant potential to create and respond to disruption and to power both transformation and opt

3、imization initiatives. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a foundational catalyst for advanced process automation and human augmentation and engagement. Physical environments including factories, offices and cities will become “smart spaces” within which people will interact through multiple touchpoint

4、s and sensory channels for an increasingly ambient experience. Dealing with privacy, digital ethics and security challenges generated by AI, the Internet of Things (IoT)/edge, and other evolving technologies will become critical to maintain trust and avoid legal entanglements. Recommendations Enterp

5、rise architecture and technology innovation leaders must: Center their innovation efforts on people and use tools such as personas, journey maps, technology radars, and roadmaps to evaluate opportunities, challenges and time frames for adoption. Build an overarching view across functional and proces

6、s silos and exploit a complementary set of tools including RPA, iBPMS, DTO, application development, and AI domains that guide how the tools are used and the systems they create are integrated. Embrace multiexperience and implement development platforms and design principles to support conversationa

7、l, immersive and increasingly ambient experiences. Establish governance principles, policies, best practices and technology architectures to increase transparency and trust regarding data and the use of AI. Table of Contents Strategic Planning Assumptions. 3 Analysis.4 People-Centric Smart Spaces Bu

8、ild on the Intelligent Digital Mesh. 6 Trend No. 1: Hyperautomation.10 RPA and iBPMS Are Key Components of Hyperautomation.10 The Digital Twin of an Organization. 11 Machine Learning and NLP Explode the Range of Hyperautomation Possibilities.12 Trend No. 2: Multiexperience.13 Immersive Experiences.1

9、4 The Language Factor.15 The Multiexperience Development Platform. 16 Trend No. 3: Democratization. 17 Democratization of Application Development.18 Low-Code, No-Code and the Citizen Developer.19 Augmented Analytics and the Citizen Data Scientist. 19 Dealing With Shadow AI. 20 Trend No. 4: Human Aug

10、mentation.21 Cognitive and Physical Augmentation.22 Cultural and Ethical Aspects of Human Augmentation. 23 Trend No. 5: Transparency and Traceability.25 Explainable and Ethical AI and Algorithms.25 Data Privacy, Ownership and Control.26 Best Practices and Regulations Are Emerging. 28 Trend No. 6: Th

11、e Empowered Edge.29 Data, Analytics and AI at the Edge.30 Communicating to the Edge The Role of 5G. 31 Digital Twin of Things at the Edge. 32 Trend No. 7: Distributed Cloud. 33 Distributed Cloud Delivers on the Hybrid Cloud Promise.33 Getting to Distributed Cloud. 34 The Edge Effect.35 Page 2 of 52G

12、artner, Inc. | G00432920 Trend No. 8: Autonomous Things. 36 Common Technology Capabilities.36 Combining Autonomous Capabilities and Human Control.37 Autonomous, Intelligent and Collaborative. 38 Trend No. 9: Practical Blockchain.39 Blockchain Will Be Scalable by 2023.40 Blockchain Use Cases.41 Trend

13、 No. 10: AI Security.43 Protecting AI-Powered Systems. 43 Leveraging AI to Enhance Cybersecurity Defense.44 Anticipating Nefarious Use of AI by Attackers. 45 List of Figures Figure 1. Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2020.5 Figure 2. People-Centric Smart Spaces.7 Strategic Planning Assumptions

14、 By 2022, 70% of enterprises will be experimenting with immersive technologies for consumer and enterprise use, and 25% will have deployed them to production. By 2022, 35% of large businesses in the training and simulation industry will evaluate and adopt immersive solutions, up from less than 1% in

15、 2019. By 2021, at least one-third of enterprises will have deployed a multiexperience development platform to support mobile, web, conversational and augmented reality development. By 2024 75% of large enterprises will be using at least four low-code development tools for both IT application develo

16、pment and citizen development initiatives. By 2022, at least 40% of new application development projects will have artificial intelligence co- developers on the team. By 2021, automation of data science tasks will enable citizen data scientists to produce a higher volume of advanced analysis than sp

17、ecialized data scientists. By 2025, a scarcity of data scientists will no longer hinder the adoption of data science and machine learning in organizations. Gartner, Inc. | G00432920Page 3 of 52 By 2022, 30% of organizations using AI for decision making will contend with shadow AI as the biggest risk

18、 to effective and ethical decisions. Through 2023, 30% of IT organizations will extend BYOD policies with “bring your own enhancement” (BYOE) to address augmented humans in the workforce. By 2020, we expect that companies that are digitally trustworthy will generate 20% more online profit than those

19、 that arent. By 2020, we expect that 4% of network-based mobile communications service providers (CSPs) globally will launch the 5G network commercially. By 2024, most cloud service platforms will provide at least some services that execute at the point of need. By 2023, blockchain will be scalable

20、technically, and will support trusted private transactions with the necessary data confidentiality. Through 2022, over 75% of data governance initiatives will not adequately consider AIs potential security risks and their implications, resulting in quantifiable financial loss. Through 2022, 30% of a

21、ll AI cyberattacks will leverage training-data poisoning, AI model theft or adversarial samples to attack AI-powered systems. Analysis Gartners annual top 10 strategic technology trends (see Figure 1) highlight trends that enterprises need to consider as part of their five-year strategic technology

22、planning process. These trends have a profound impact on people and the spaces they inhabit. Strategic trends have broad impact across industries and geographies, with significant potential for disruption. In many cases, the trends arent yet widely recognized or the conventional wisdom regarding the

23、 trends is shifting (see Note 1). Through 2025, technologies related to these trends will experience significant changes, cross critical tipping points and reach new levels of maturity that expand and enable repeatable use cases and reduce risk. Technology innovation leaders must examine the busines

24、s impact of our top 10 strategic technology trends and seize the opportunities to enhance existing, or create new, processes, products and business models. Prepare for the impact of these trends they will transform industries and your business. Page 4 of 52Gartner, Inc. | G00432920 Figure 1. Top 10

25、Strategic Technology Trends for 2020 The top 10 strategic technology trends are a critical ingredient in driving a continuous innovation process as part of a ContinuousNext strategy. 1 Technology innovation leaders must adopt a mindset and new practices that accept and embrace perpetual change. That

26、 change may be incremental or radical, and may be applied to existing or new business models and technologies. Technology is changing peoples lives, enabling the ongoing digitalization of business and driving organizations to continually refresh their business models. In this long march to digitaliz

27、ation, technology is amplifying continuous change at an ever-increasing velocity. Organizations need to consider how these strategic trends can be applied across two continuous and complementary cycles: Continuous operations exploit technology to run the business today, modernize it and improve effi

28、ciency, and incrementally grow the business. Existing business models and technology environments set the stage upon which innovation opportunities are explored and will ultimately influence the cost, risk and success of implementing and scaling innovation efforts. Continuous innovation exploits tec

29、hnology to transform the business and either create or respond to disruptions affecting the business. This innovation cycle looks at more radical changes to business models and supporting technologies as well as new business models and technologies that extend the current environment. Trends and tec

30、hnologies do not exist in isolation. They build on and reinforce one another to create the digital world. Combinatorial innovation explores the way trends combine to build this greater Gartner, Inc. | G00432920Page 5 of 52 whole. Individual trends and related technologies are combining to begin real

31、izing the overall vision embodied in the intelligent digital mesh. 2 For example, AI in the form of machine learning (ML) is combining with hyperautomation and edge computing to enable highly integrated smart buildings and city spaces. In turn, this enables further democratization of the use of tech

32、nology as business users and customers self-serve to meet their individual needs. CIOs and IT leaders are challenged with a number of “and dilemmas” such as delivering existing services and innovating new services. You can turn “and dilemmas” into “and opportunities” by applying “and thinking,” wher

33、e the combined effect of multiple trends coalescing is to produce new opportunities and drive new disruption. Combinatorial innovation is a hallmark of our top 10 strategic technology trends for 2020. People-Centric Smart Spaces Build on the Intelligent Digital Mesh The future will be characterized

34、by smart devices delivering increasingly insightful digital services everywhere. We call this the “intelligent digital mesh.” It can be described as: The intelligent theme explores how AI with a particular emphasis on machine learning is seeping into virtually every existing technology and creating

35、entirely new technology categories. The exploitation of AI will be a major battleground for technology providers through 2022. Using AI for well-scoped and targeted purposes delivers more flexible, insightful and increasingly autonomous systems. The digital theme focuses on blending the digital and

36、physical worlds to create a natural and immersive digitally enhanced experience. As the amount of data that things produce increases exponentially, compute power shifts to the edge to process stream data and send summary data to central systems. Digital trends, along with opportunities enabled by AI

37、, are driving the next generation of digital business and the creation of digital business ecosystems. In this intelligent digital world, massive amounts of rich and varied data are generated, thus necessitating a greater focus on digital ethics and privacy and on the transparency and traceability that they require. The mesh theme refers to exploiting co