【陳軍】Sigmaintell_2023-2024 Global semiconductor dynamic and outlook_Ellike_230906.pdf

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1、2023-2024 Global semiconductor dynamic and outlookBy Sigmaintell Ellike,Sep.2023All rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,Ltd1Stay Specialized,Enable Intelligence2Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell r

2、eproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceConclusionsCompany Data and AnalysisIndustry dynamic and outlook3Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable Intellige

3、nceConclusionsCompany Data and AnalysisIndustry dynamic and outlook4Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar No winnerBalance points dur

4、ing Countries.Macro Rules limit global semi growth better;Counties search a balance point in long-term.Japan government launched new Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act The export restrictions cover 23 semiconductor manufacturing equipment,primarily for advanced processes at 14nm and below.2023.5

5、.232023.6.302023.7.42023.7.23The Netherlands has announced new rules restricting exports of certain semiconductor manufacturing equipment.China mainland announced the rules of“export control of germanium and gallium-related items”2023.9.12023.8.1Source:Sigmaintell5Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll r

6、ights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar 58951655661870474232%1%-3%7%8%-2%3%21%12%-11%11%25%1%-12%8%11%14%5%5%-8%4%10%6%5%2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212

7、0222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FSales revenue(Bil.$)YoY(%)Pre_YOY(%)Sales revenue will be possible growth 8%in line with memory and end market recovery in Y24.2010-2027F Global semiconductor industry revenue trend（Billion$）Demand much worseMemory&Logic&Analog&MicroDrivingAI&Super computing long-termDriv

8、ingSource:Sigmaintell6Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar 22%27%26%32%35%40%38.9%19.8%-8.5%-20.1%-16.4%-12.7%3.0%12.6%9.8%9.0%28%30

9、%31%32%33%34%35%38%41%51%51%44%37%20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2E23Q3F23Q4F24Q1F24Q2F24Q3F24Q4FFoundryRevenue(Mil.$)YoY%Operation Profit Rate(%)2020-2024F Global main pure foundry revenue trends（Billion$）In line with AI and high-end soc driving,pure foundry revenue will be

10、possible recovery in Y24.iPhone 15 will be adopted 3nm.High end SoC will be transfer from 4nm to 3nm.AI&Super Computing blooming.Super inflation down,market demand recovery.Components inventory should be back safety level.PeakLowestSource:Sigmaintell*Main pure foundries including TSMC&UMC&SMIC&Huaho

11、ng&VIS&PSMC&Global Foundry&Nexchip&DB Hitek.63,88183,987111,99894,768102,893Y20Y21Y22Y23FY24F7Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar 5

12、5 57 58 69 77 77 76 78 78 83 83 87 94 90 85 88 53 55 58 73 83 85 85 88 88 95 90 93 96 59 61 60 60 59 58 59 59 61 62 66 72 83 -20 40 60 80 100 120 14020Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2F23Q3F23Q4F24Q1F24Q2F24Q3F24Q4FTSMCUMCSMICHHVISPSMCGlobalFoundryNextchipDB HitekTotal RevenuePu

13、re foundry makers enters inventory clearing cycles in coming years.2020-2024F Global main pure foundry inventory trends（days）After set&fabless,Foundry makers started to clear inventory as main mission.Inventory days23Q123Q1/22Q123Q1/21Q123Q1/20Q1TSMC96 9%16%81%UMC83 36%41%41%SMIC*130 102%79%112%HuaH

14、ong*85 24%-26%23%VIS60 112%83%75%PSMC85 111%62%26%GlobalFoundry*70 27%16%18%Nextchip*85 93%148%1%Average Inventory94 21%23%72%Source:Sigmaintell8Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSig

15、maintell 2023H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar URT will be possible growth better in Y24 and Considering inventory,it was the bottom UT in 23H1.93%94%98%98%95%96%97%99%99%97%98%95%81%79%80%85%84%86%89%90%99%99%98%96%99%100%100%99%100%97%92%80%68%68%70%71%72%75%77%76%75%76%78%80%82%83%85%20Q120Q22

16、0Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2F23Q3F23Q4F24Q1F24Q2F24Q3F24Q4FTSMCUMCSMICGlobalFoundryIndustry URT2020-2024F Global main pure foundry URT trends（%）TSMC should be growth better.23H1 as the UT bottom period.Source:Sigmaintell9Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmain

17、tell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar Advanced(28nm&below)process kept a growth trend in coming year.2020-2023F Global main pure foundry OEM revenue trends by node28%28%34%39%38%38%40%38%38%39%

18、42%43%41%40%28%28%27%22%22%22%21%22%22%22%21%22%24%23%12%11%10%9%9%8%9%9%9%9%8%8%8%8%9%9%8%8%8%8%7%8%8%8%8%7%9%9%4%4%3%3%4%4%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%4%5%4%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%6%4%4%11%11%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%9%8%8%8%5%5%5%4%5%5%5%5%4%4%4%4%4%4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q4

19、22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2E14nm&below 14nm14-28nm28-40nm40-65nm65-90nm90-130nm130-180nmAbove 180nm+1.5+1.2-0.9-1.0+0.5+0.3-1.8+0.3Source:Sigmaintell*Main pure foundries including TSMC&UMC&SMIC&Huahong&VIS&Nexchip10Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited

20、 without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar 47%45%49%53%49%47%46%51%45%42%44%44%40%38%41%38%34%33%29%32%29%29%30%33%37%31%35%39%37%37%41%43%39%42%44%45%7%8%9%8%9%8%9%7%9%8%9%9%8%8%10%8%9%9%5%5%4%4%4%4%2%3%4%4%4%4%5%5%5%6%7%7%7%

21、6%5%3%5%5%3%4%4%4%3%3%3%3%2%2%2%2%5%4%4%3%3%3%3%4%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%4%4%4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%19Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2ESmartphoneHigh Performance ComputingInternet of ThingsAutomotiveDigital Consumer ElectronicsOthersHPC&Automotive demand grow

22、th better than smartphone2019-2023F TSMC OEM revenue distribution by application(%)+2.0-5.0Source:Sigmaintell+1.0+2.0-1.0+1.011Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023H1 Gl

23、obal High-Tech industry webinar Foundry makers must upgrade process node to make sure general ASP growth continually.2020-2023F Global main pure foundry ASP wafer ship average price trend($per wafer)3,610 3,539 3,740 3,787 3,865 3,865 4,074 4,214 4,560 4,932 5,412 5,315 5,181 5,037 5,634 5,849 2,682

24、 2,640 2,837 2,789 2,856 2,883 3,037 3,143 3,402 3,637 4,009 4,032 3,961 3,778 4,110 4,305 20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2E23Q3F23Q4FTSMCUMCGlobalFoundriesSMICHuahongVISPSMCASP($per wafer)Source:Sigmaintell12Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell re

25、production prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar Cap.continually growth,it will be increase around 10.3%in Y24.2019-2024F Global pure foundry cap.Expansion trends by node(K sheet/month)02004006008001000120014001

26、60019Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q42nm3nm4nm7nm12nm14nm16nm19nm20nm22nm28nm40nm45nm50nm55nm65nm90nm95nm110nm130nm150nm180nm250nm350nm450nm500nm600nm9.8%Y227.8%Y2310.3%Y24Source:Sigmaintell Even though demand will

27、be possible to be slight better in 2024.Then considering cap.Increasing,the UT will be hard to get full cap.The average UT will be around 80%level.In 2024.20222023E2024F2023E2024FTSMC363133-14%7%SMIC667-7%10%UMC3327%-18%Global Foundries322-26%-4%Others34313%-8%TTL524648-11%4%Foundry VendorsYoY%CAPEX

28、(Bil.,$)13Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar Node wafer price continues to be down due to worse demand.2019-2024F Global pure foun

29、dry cap.Expansion trends by node(K sheet/month)Source:Sigmaintell1,350 1,700 2,000 2,100 2,100 2,080 2,050 1,910 1,830 1,770 1,710 1,670 1,590 1,350 1,700 2,000 2,100 2,100 2,080 2,050 1,910 1,920 1,860 1,810 1,790 2,480 2,860 3,020 3,550 3,690 3,690 3,690 3,690 3,480 3,410 3,340 3,340 3,340 2,480 2

30、,860 3,020 3,550 3,690 3,690 3,690 3,690 3,500 3,500 3,450 3,400 590 590 610 610 610 610 610 580 534 509 498 490 484 440 440 450 450 470 470 450 428 394 378 366 359 355 -500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,00021Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3F23Q4F24Q1F8inch&0.18mPre_8inch&0.18m8inc

31、h&0.13mPre_8inch&0.13m12inch&90/110nmPre_12inch&90/110nm12inch&22/28nmPre_12inch&22/28nm14Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceConclusionsCompany Data and AnalysisIndustry dynamic and o

32、utlook15Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar OEM costs will be possible growth in Y24 in line with node upgrade from 4nm to 3nm.Seri

33、es20Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q4SM8350(SDM888)(Lahaina)*Samsung5nm*Modem:X60 5G*4hLP5UFS3.1SM8475-AC(8Gen1+)*TSMC4nm*MODEM:X65 5G*4hLP5SM8550(8Gen2)*TSMC4nm*MODEM:X70 5G*4hLP5XUFS4.0SM8650(8Gen3)*TSMCN4P*MODEM:X75 5GSM8750(8Gen4)*TSMCN3E or SF3nm LPE？*MODEM:X80 5GSM8475-AB(8Gen

34、1+)*TSMC4nm*MODEM:X65 5G*4hLP5UFS3.1SM7XXXSM7450(7Gen1)*Samsung4nm*Modem:X62 5G*2hLP5UFS3.1SM7475(7Gen2+)Feb*TSMC4nm*Modem:X62 5G*2hLP5UFS3.1SM7435(SM6450 Pro)*Samsung4nm*Modem:X62 5GSM7550(7Gen3)*TSMC4nm*Modem:X6?5GSM7575(7Gen3+)*TSMC4nm*Modem:X6?5GSM7650(7Gen4)*TSMC4nm？*Modem:X6?5GSM6XXXSM6450(6Ge

35、n1)*Samsung4nm*Modem:X62 5G*2hLP5UFS3.1SM6550(6Gen3)*TSMC6nm？*Modem:X?5GSM4XXXSM4350(SDM480)*Samsung8nm*Modem:X51 5G*2hLP4XUFS2.2SM4375(4Gen1)*TSMC6nm*Modem:X51 5G*2hLP4XUFS2.2SM4450(4Gen2)*Samsung5nmLP5UFS3.1SM4650(4Gen3)*Samsung4nm？SM8XXXSource:Sigmaintell16Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights

36、 reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar Renew production line and increase competition with QCTSegment22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q4DX-1 Pro(D9000+)MT6983*TS

37、MC5nm*Modem:M80 5G*LP5XUFS3.1DX-2(D9200)MT6895*TSMC4nmDX-2 Pro(D9200+)Jun*TSMC4nmDX-3(D9300)Oct*TSMC4nmDX-4(D9400)Nov*TSMC N3ED8000/D8100MT6895Z*TSMC5nm*Modem:5G*LP4XUFS3.122P（D8200）MT6896*TSMC4nm*Nov.CS*upgrade toD9000 ISP23P(MT689X)Dec*TSMC4nm24P(MT689X)Dec*TSMC4nmD1300MT6893Z*TSMC6nm*Modem:*LP4XU

38、FS3.1D7200(MT6886)*TSMC4nm23H(MT68xx)*TSMC4nmD1050MT6879*TSMC6nm*Modem:*LP4XUFS3.1D1080MT6877V*TSMC6nm*Modem:Integrated 5G*LP5UFS3.1D8020/D8050 Apr*TSMC6nm*LP5UFS3.1D930MT6855*TSMC6nm*Modem:Integrated 5G*LP5UFS3.1D7020 May*TSMC6nm*LP5UFS3.1D6080 Apr*TSMC6nm*LP4XUFS2.2D6100 Jul*TSMC6nm*LP4XUFS2.224E*

39、TSMC6nmD6020MT68xx*TSMC7nm*Modem:Integrated 5G*LP4XUFS2.2Dimensity(Flagship)Dimensity(High)Dimensity(Mainstream)Source:Sigmaintell17Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023

40、H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar I&SS performance better in Group and higher inventory still as challenges.2021 2023 Sony development trends in past 6 quarters(Bil.$,%)27191820262441233115.3%6.1%13.3%12.5%12.6%4.2%21Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1Net Sales(Bil.,$)Operation Income(Bil.,$)Operation Margin(

41、%)19.9%4.2%9.1%18.6%20.3%9.1%32233310.10.2110.221Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1I&SS Sales(Bil.,$)I&SS Operating income(Bil.,$)I&SS Operation Margin(%)109%153%198%117%117%151%21Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1I&SS Inventories（Bil.$）I&SS Inventories Index(%)26%26%24%22%20%28%30%27%31%28%32%27%19%19%18%18%20%19%7%8%8%9%

42、7%6%12%12%12%16%14%12%6%7%7%7%7%8%21Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1JapanUSAEuropeChinaAsia-PacificOthersSony GroupSony I&SSI&SS InventoryGroup by RegionProfit going downI&SS is better in GroupI&SS inventory is so higherLocal biz growthSource:Sigmaintell18Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by S

43、igmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar Memory vendors are still struggling with the memory cycle.2021 2023 SK Hynix development trends in past 6 quarters(Bil.KRW,%)4220286441931656-1898-34

44、0234%24%30%15%-25%-67%123771215613811109837672508821Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1Net Sales(Bil.KRW)Operation Income(Bil.KRW)Operation Margin(%)70%86%86%134%204%338%8607104221187914665156651718221Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1Inventories(Bil.KRW)Inventories Index(%)65%64%64%60%58%32%32%31%30%33%3%4%5%10%9%22Q122Q22

45、2Q322Q423Q1DRAMNANDOthers20%20%17%21%21%44%44%46%49%38%9%9%10%9%15%5%5%5%5%5%22%22%22%15%21%22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1PCServeGraphicsConsumerMobile6%5%9%10%20%54%46%46%37%54%40%49%44%53%26%22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1SSDMobileUSB,Card and OthersRevenueInventoryTypeDRAMNANDMinus profit from 22Q4Inventory is going

46、upNAND contributed moreServe demand declinedUSB&Other contributed moreSource:Sigmaintell19Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar$0$1$2

47、$3$4$5$622Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3F23Q4F24Q1F24Q2F2M/Rear/FF13M/front/FF50M(0.6x)/Rear/AFAfter inventory back,component price will be stable in coming year.2022-2024F Main spec chip price trend ($)MemoryMemoryChipsetChipsetCamera ModuleCamera Module$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$140$16022Q322Q423Q123Q2 23Q3F2

48、3Q4F 24Q1F 24Q2F8 Gen 1 plus(5G)D810(5G)G99(4G)$0$5$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$4522Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3F23Q4F24Q1F24Q2FUFS 128GBLPDDR4X 48Gb(6GB)Source:Sigmaintell20Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable

49、 IntelligenceConclusionsCompany Data and AnalysisIndustry dynamic and outlook21Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar Part 1:Industry

50、dynamic and outlook Sales revenue will be possible growth 8%in line with memory and end market recovery in Y24.In line with AI and high-end soc driving,pure foundry revenue will be possible recovery in Y24.Pure foundry makers enters inventory clearing cycles in coming years.URT will be possible grow

51、th better in Y24 and Considering inventory,it was the bottom UT in 23H1.Advanced(28nm&below)process kept a growth trend in coming year.HPC&Automotive demand growth better than smartphone Foundry makers must upgrade process node to make sure general ASP growth continually.Cap.continually growth,it wi

52、ll be increase around 10.3%in Y24.Node wafer price continues to be down due to worse demand.Part 2:Company Data and Analysis Worse demand challenges QCT performance and long-term strategy.Smart Edge Platform contributed much more revenue for MTK performance in coming year.I&SS performance better in

53、Group and higher inventory still as challenges.Memory vendors are still struggling with the memory cycle.After inventory back,component price will be stable in coming year.Summary 22Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.St

54、ay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceSigmaintell 2023H1 Global High-Tech industry webinar Sigmamirror:As a research content platform of Sigmaintell,Sigmamirror covers research on high-tech industries including the Internet of Things,semiconductordisplay,and IC.Corporate customers can use it for precise

55、 insights into market dynamics and industry trends.知識棱鏡 是群智咨詢（Sigmaintell）全力打造的整合式內容平臺，涵蓋物聯網、半導體顯示及IC等高科技產業的最新研究內容，幫助企業客戶深度了解市場動態，精準洞察產業風向。Sigmamirror/知識棱鏡 23Sigmaintell Consulting Co.,LtdAll rights reserved by Sigmaintell reproduction prohibited without written permission.Stay Specialized,Enable IntelligenceJThanks for your listening!