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1、2022年因為疫情出現下滑的中國內地奢侈品市場在2023年迎來復蘇，但是現有經濟環境和海外消費回暖減慢了復蘇勢頭。疫情過后，中國內地奢侈品市場開始向正常增長模式過渡，但消費者信心恢復速度有多快？海外奢侈品消費能恢復多少？前進道路上依然存在著一些不確定因素。2023年中國奢侈品市場：復蘇和過渡之年 本冊著作權歸貝恩公司所有。作者簡介及致謝布魯諾（Bruno Lannes）是貝恩公司消費品和零售業務資深全球合伙人，常駐上海。聯系方式：.邢微微是貝恩公司消費品和零售業務全球合伙人，常駐香港。聯系方式：.報告的作者特別感謝貝恩公司董事經理劉瑞楠和貝恩公司助理顧問邢開珺為本報告做出的貢獻。2023年中國

2、奢侈品市場：復蘇和過渡之年1摘要 2022年因為疫情出現下滑的中國內地奢侈品市場在2023年迎來復蘇，預計將實現12%的同比增長，但整體規模仍稍遜色于2021年水平。長遠來看，中國奢侈品消費的基本面依然強勁，但近期存在一些不確定因素。2024年中國內地奢侈品市場預計將取得中等個位數增長。2017至2021年，中國內地奢侈品市場在5年內增長兩倍，但增長勢頭在2022年停止，市場銷售額出現了兩位數的下降。2022年12月初，社會和經濟活動復蘇，也帶動中國內地奢侈品市場在2023年一改上一年的頹勢，實現反彈，預計全年銷售額同比增長12%左右（圖1）。?2023?01,0002,0003,0004,0

3、005,000201112131415161718192023E2221CAGR202223E12%5%CAGR40%CAGR(1%)CAGR2023?2021?2021?圖1：2023年中國內地奢侈品市場經歷了經濟環境下行和海外消費回暖的雙重考驗，預計銷售額將增長12%左右，尚未完全恢復至2021年水準2023年中國奢侈品市場：復蘇和過渡之年22023年奢侈品市場猶如坐上了過山車，在上半年，尤其是第二季度取得強勢反彈（圖2），但在下半年發展勢頭卻大幅減弱。上半年的強勢增長主要是因為2022年第二季度市場表現不佳，基數較低，而下半年表現較弱的部分原因是消費者信心下滑以及上一年第三季度銷售額基數

4、較高。另外，2022年12月銷售額基數較低，因此，預計2023年12月市場將再度實現強勢反彈。?2023?50%1015%2023?3035%(5)(10)%1015%4030201001020?“?”?2022?2023?VIC?圖2：2023年奢侈品市場猶如坐上了過山車，在上半年，尤其是第二季度取得強勢反彈，但在下半年發展勢頭卻大幅減弱2023年中國奢侈品市場：復蘇和過渡之年3所有奢侈品類均迎來反彈。美妝品類表現穩健，同比增長8%左右，其中香水和彩妝兩大子品類漲勢尤為強勁（圖3）；時裝和生活方式、皮具和珠寶品類同比增長10%20%，復蘇態勢良好，其中皮具表現稍弱于其他兩大品類，主要是因為購

5、物者消費多集中于價格較低的箱包；腕表品類復蘇勢頭最弱（同比增長510%），各品牌表現參差不齊。?2023?%?2025%4045%4550%5060%3035%510%1520%1015%1520%8%(6)%?202020212021202220222023E?(15)(20)%(10)(15)%(10)(15)%(20)(25)%?圖3：所有奢侈品類均迎來反彈，美妝、時裝和生活方式、珠寶、皮具漲勢明顯，腕表依然落后于其他品類2023年中國奢侈品市場：復蘇和過渡之年42022年，商場客流量減少，推高了品牌收入中VIC客戶的集中度。2023年，VIC消費者和非VIC消費者共同推動商場客流量大幅

6、回升。不過需要說明的是，非VIC消費者的轉換率和人均消費有所下滑，而VIC消費者在這兩項指標上均保持穩健。受疫情影響的還有海南免稅商店，2022年海南免稅銷售額下跌了30%左右。2023年，國內旅游復蘇，大批游客回歸，帶動銷售回暖，同時海南省頒布措施刺激消費。在雙重因素的作用下，海南免稅銷售額實現25%左右的同比增長，但仍未恢復至2021年水準（圖4）。此外，在免稅店購物的人數增長幅度落后于游客數量增長，表明轉換率有所降低。同時購物者人均消費也下降了超過25%。這兩大指標縮水的潛在原因包括折扣力度減弱、代購活動減少以及消費者理性程度提高。?2021?CAGR182120182122 2223E

7、1920212223E36%(11)%11%70%(29)%25%39%(13)%12%6%6%8%11%9%10%圖4：隨著國內旅游恢復以及海南省頒布措施刺激奢侈品消費，海南免稅奢侈品銷售額在2023年有所反彈2023年中國奢侈品市場：復蘇和過渡之年5綜上所述，雖然中國奢侈品市場在2023年實現了兩位數的增長，但距離2021年的水準尚有一點距離，這主要是因為消費者信心減弱、整體經濟復蘇不如預期以及越來越多的內地消費者重新選擇出國購買奢侈品。不同品牌之間增長勢頭差異明顯：約一半的頭部品牌以及多個小眾品牌的銷售額已經恢復至2021年水準。成功品牌仰仗的秘訣包括以下幾個要素：在經濟環境不確定的情況

8、下，消費者更看重奢侈品的長期保值能力，因此，擁有常青款商品的品牌表現優于主打季節款商品的品牌。VIC客戶在不確定的經濟環境下具有更強的消費韌性，因此VIC客戶集中度較高的品牌表現更好。大品牌擁有更好的能力和資源優勢，能夠舉辦高質量的營銷活動，提供優質的店內服務，因此表現更優。一些小眾品牌憑借持續多年穩定的投資加深了品牌吸引力，讓更多消費者渴望擁有這些品牌，從而取得成功。我們在今年的研究中探索了兩大顯著趨勢以及它們對奢侈品市場增長前景的影響：1）海外奢侈品消費；2）代購市場趨勢1：海外奢侈品消費疫情前，中國內地消費者的奢侈品消費有1/3來自中國內地，剩下的則來自海外。2021至2022年，中國內

9、地市場的占比飆升至90%以上。隨著出境游逐步回暖，我們預計2023年中國內地市場占內地消費者奢侈品消費的比例將回落至70%左右（圖5）。根據預測，在游客數量回升、人均消費提高雙重因素的推動下，2023年中國內地游客在歐洲和亞洲的奢侈品消費分別恢復到2019年疫情前40%和65%的水平。有很多因素導致出境游并未完全恢復，其中出境旅游和住宿成本提高是尤為關鍵的一點。大多數中高收入消費者選擇距離更近、成本更低的目的地，尤其是日本等本國貨幣相對較弱的國家或地區。這也是前往歐洲的內地游客數量恢復較慢的原因。2023年中國奢侈品市場：復蘇和過渡之年6中國內地和海外市場之間的商品價差是促成海外消費回暖的重要

10、因素。一項對中國內地、歐洲和亞洲市場主要SKU的抽查顯示，奢侈時裝和皮具在中國內地的價格明顯高于出境游首選目的地的價格，這樣的價差與2022年相比幾乎沒有變化，吸引內地消費者去海外購買奢侈品（圖6）。?2023?30%?3050%?2024?100%757927638833806040202015201920212023E?2023?2019?40%65%?0圖5：2021年，內地奢侈品消費占比達到峰值，但隨著出境旅游逐步恢復，內地消費占比有所下降2023年中國奢侈品市場：復蘇和過渡之年7?35?3?SKU?1:7.7?1:8.1?2022?12?(?2023?12?11?)?1?100%圖8

11、：專業性更高的新型代購模式開始嶄露頭角，尤其是在時裝和皮具領域，GMV已經達到可觀的規模在美妝代購限制增多的同時，專業性更高的新型代購模式開始展露頭角，尤其是在時裝和皮具領域。根據Re-Hub的追蹤研究，中國內地代購業務逐步專業化，代購機構能夠通過批發渠道，以低價從海外市場拿到商品。同時，這些代購機構采用平臺化方法，為消費者帶來豐富、保真的購物選擇。在Re-Hub追蹤的代購渠道上，奢侈品價格比品牌中國內地官方價格低0%40%不等（圖8）。價格差距往往取決于奢侈品牌全球批發渠道的規模及控制力度。以時裝和皮具為例，對于在海外沒有建立批發渠道或者對海外批發渠道加以嚴格控制的品牌來說，這些平臺上的代購

12、銷售額相當于中國內地官方渠道營收的1020%，但是如果品牌在海外有一定規模的批發渠道且缺乏控制，其在這些渠道的代購銷售額可以去到中國內地官方渠道營收的6070%甚至更多。根據Re-Hub數據，近幾年來（包括2023年），其中一些平臺的代購奢侈品銷售額能夠取得兩位數的年均增幅。2023年中國奢侈品市場：復蘇和過渡之年10展望未來我們認為，2023年是過渡的一年，中國奢侈品市場在經歷三年疫情后開始重新回到正常的增長路徑。長遠來看，中國奢侈品消費的基本面依然強勁，但是，短期內，消費者信心恢復速度、海外奢侈品消費增長速度等方面仍然存在一些不確定因素。2023年的趨勢大部分將在2024年延續或放大，我們

13、預計2024年中國內地奢侈品市場將取得中等個位數增長。隨著出境旅游加速回暖，海外奢侈品消費將繼續復蘇。2024年出境旅游能夠恢復到什么水平主要取決于經濟復蘇情況以及旅行和住宿成本的變化。多家旅行社和機構預測，中國內地出境游客數量有望在2024年中后期完全恢復1，香港和日本等國家和地區將成為首選目的地。因此，我們預計中國內地消費者海外奢侈品消費將延續反彈之勢，尤其是在亞洲市場。對于奢侈品牌來說，全球統一的定價策略仍是將中國內地消費者拉回內地市場的關鍵。中國高凈值人群的可投資資產總額預計將以兩位數的速度增長2。這類人群是中國內地奢侈品銷售增長的主要推動力量，盡管他們更有可能擴大海外消費的占比。20

14、23年，中高收入消費者變得更理性，在購物時也更加精挑細選。這類人群的消費信心可能需要一段時間才能得到恢復，對品牌銷量和人均消費額都會產生影響。年輕的入門級消費者對入門級奢侈品的消費力保持穩健，仍然是奢侈品重要的消費者群體之一。不過值得注意的是這類消費者人均消費額相比其他人群會更低，且他們比其他人群更加青睞線上渠道。我們預計除了少數在2023年取得顯著增長的頭部奢侈品牌外，大多數品牌將收緊實體店版圖擴張步伐，將更多的精力放到優化業務布局和提高同店坪效上。2025年海南將實現全島封關，其購物環境也將逐步成熟，吸引更多不同的消費人群，提高奢侈品牌在海南投資的興趣。代購市場不太可能驟然遇冷，其發展速度

15、取決于品牌對其海外批發渠道的控制力度。長遠來看，中國經濟增長速度雖然相比以前有所減慢，但總體仍然可觀且逐步趨穩。根據行業預計，未來幾年中國實際GDP增長率將達到45%，為奢侈品行業創造一個巨大的增量市場。2023年，即使不考慮代購，中國內地消費者占全球奢侈品消費總量比例預計達到2224%左右，中國內地市場也能占到全球奢侈品消費總量的16%左右。預計到2030年，中國將成為全球領先的奢侈品市場之一，中國內地消費者占全球奢侈品消費總量的比例將增長至3540%，內地市場的占比將提升至2426%。中國奢侈品市場將繼續致力于打造一流的零售場所、出眾的消費體驗、成熟的客戶服務、強大的活動策劃和執行體系、多

16、樣化的數字環境，同時發展必要能力，培養關鍵人才，滿足內地消費者不斷提高的期望，為全球奢侈品行業樹立標桿和典范。1 世界旅游業理事會；世邦魏理仕；攜程2 招商銀行2023中國私人財富報告Bold ideas.Bold teams.Extraordinary results.貝恩公司是一家全球性咨詢公司，致力于幫助世界各地有雄心、以變革為導向的商業領袖共同定義未來 目前，貝恩公司在全球40個國家設有65個分公司，我們與客戶并肩工作，擁有共同的目標：取得超越對手的非凡業績，重新定義客戶所在的行業。憑借度身訂制的整合性專業能力，配以精心打造的數字創新生態系統，我們為客戶提供更好、更快和更持久的業績結果

17、。自1973年成立以來，我們根據客戶的業績來衡量自己的成功。我們在業內享有良好的客戶擁護度。是什么使我們在競爭激烈的咨詢行業中脫穎而出貝恩公司堅信管理咨詢公司發揮的作用不應局限于提供建議方案的范疇。我們置身客戶立場思考問題，專注于建議方案的落地。我們基于執行效果的收費模式有助于確?？蛻襞c貝恩的利益捆綁，通過與客戶通力合作，以發掘客戶的最大潛力。我們的戰略落地/變革管理（Results Delivery）流程協助客戶發展自身的能力，而我們的“真北”（True North）價值觀指導我們始終致力于為我們的客戶、員工和社會實現目標。貝恩公司大中華區20世紀90年代初，貝恩公司進入中國，是較早進入中國

18、市場的全球咨詢公司之一。目前在北京、上海和香港設有三個分公司，大中華區員工人數近400人。多年來，憑借對中國本地市場的了解和在全球其他地區積累的豐富經驗，我們持續為不同行業的跨國公司和中國本土企業提供咨詢服務，度身訂制企業策略和解決方案。欲了解更多信息，請查詢 或關注微信號:Chinas luxury market experienced a strong rebound in 2023 after a decline caused by Covid-19 in 2022.However,the recovery was tempered by the current economic cli

19、mate and the re-start of overseas shopping.As the market transitions to a normalized post-Covid growth phase,uncertainties remain regarding the speed at which consumer confidence will resume and the extent to which luxury shopping will return overseas.2023 China Luxury Goods Market:A Year of Recover

20、y and TransitionCopyright 2023 Bain&Company,Inc.All rights reserved.Authors and acknowledgmentsBruno Lannes is a senior partner with Bain&Companys Consumer Products and Retail practices and is based in Shanghai.You can contact him at .Weiwei Xing is a partner with Bain&Companys Consumer Products and

21、 Retail practices in Greater China and is based in Hong Kong.You can contact her at .The authors are grateful for all those who contributed to this report,especially Kate Liu,a senior manager in Bains Shanghai office,and Lucy Xing,an associate consultant in Bains Beijing office.2023 China Luxury Goo

22、ds Market:A Year of Recovery and Transition1At a Glance In 2023,Chinas luxury market saw a 12%yearly increase,recovering from the previous years decline due to Covid-19,but landing slightly below 2021s record level While Chinas long-term fundamentals for luxury consumption remain robust,there are ne

23、ar-term uncertainties.It is projected that Chinas luxury market will experience mid-single-digit growth in 2024Over the span of five years,from 2017 to 2021,Chinas luxury market tripled in size.However,the boom came to an end in 2022 due to the impact of Covid-19,resulting in a double-digit decline.

24、The lifting of Covid restrictions in December 2022 paved the way for the resumption of social and economic activities in 2023.Consequently,the market witnessed a significant rebound,with an estimated year-on-year growth of 12%(see Figure 1).Source:Bain-Altagamma 2023 Worldwide Luxury Market Monitor;

25、Bain analysisMainland China personal luxury market(B RMB)0100200300400500201112131415161718192023E2221CAGR202223E12%5%CAGR40%CAGR(1%)CAGRCOVID restrictions were lifted at the end of 2022,leading to social and economic activities resumption in 2023Chinas luxury market has not fully recovered to its 2

26、021 level,primarily because of the current economic environment and overseas luxury shoppingThere are significant growth differences across brands:about half of the leading brands have recovered their 2021 sales levels,along with multiple niche brands Figure 1:The Mainland China luxury market is to

27、grow 12%in 2023,not fully back to 2021 level,be-cause of current economic environment and overseas luxury shopping2023 China Luxury Goods Market:A Year of Recovery and Transition2The year 2023 presented a stark contrast in performance,with a strong rebound in the first half(H1)followed by a more sub

28、dued second half(H2)(see Figure 2).The robust performance in H1 can be attributed to the low base created by the lockdowns in the second quarter of 2022,which set the stage for a significant rebound.However,H2 witnessed weaker growth,primarily driven by a decline in consumer sentiment and a high com

29、parable base in the third quarter.It is expected that December will experience a strong rebound,as there was limited shopping activity in the previous December due to the lifting of restrictions.Source:Bain-Altagamma 2023 Worldwide Luxury Market Monitor;Financial reports;Bain analysis Mainland China

30、 personal luxury market year-over-yeargrowth rate by quarter50%1015%2023 Q12023 Q22023 Q32023 Q43035%(5)(10)%1015%4030201001020A year of contrast Significant growth differences across brandsStrong H1 due to Covid-19 in 2022 Q2Weak H2 partly driven by deteriorated consumer sentiment and a high comp.i

31、n Q3Consumers stick to iconic brands and productsBrands with higher concentrations of VICs fared betterSome niche brands also achieved stellar performanceCost of doing business is increasing;the larger brands have greater capability and resourcesFigure 2:2023 was a year of contrast where H1 rebounde

32、d strongly especially in Q2 while H2 was much more muted2023 China Luxury Goods Market:A Year of Recovery and Transition3All categories within the luxury market in China experienced a rebound in 2023.The beauty category saw solid growth of approximately 8%,driven by strong momentum in fragrances and

33、 makeup(see Figure 3).Fashion and Lifestyle,Leather Goods,and Jewelry also rebounded nicely,with growth rates ranging from 10%to 20%.However,the Leather Goods category was slightly softer compared to other categories,as consumers focused more on the lower-price bag segment.The Watches category saw t

34、he softest rebound,with growth rates ranging from 5%to 10%,driven by the polarization of brands.Source:Bain-Altagamma 2023 Worldwide Luxury Market Monitor;Financial reports;Bain analysis Mainland China personal luxury market year-over-year growth by category202020212021202220222023E2025%4045%4550%50

35、60%3035%510%1520%1015%1520%8%(6)%BeautyFashion andLifestyleLeatherGoodsJewelryWatches(15)(20)%(10)(15)%(10)(15)%(20)(25)%Beauty saw solid growth,driven by strong momentum in fragrances and makeupFashion and Lifestyle,Leather Goods and Jewelry rebounded nicely,with Leather Goods slightly softer than

36、other categories due to consumers focus on bags lower price segmentWatches saw the softest rebound with contrasted per-formance across brandsFigure 3:All luxury categories rebounded,Beauty,Fashion,Jewelry,and Leather Goods saw strong growth,and Watches continues to lag other categories2023 China Lux

37、ury Goods Market:A Year of Recovery and Transition4In 2022,the concentration of Very Important Customers(VICs)increased as a result of reduced shopping mall traffic.However,in 2023,both VIC and non-VIC consumers saw a significant rebound in shopping mall traffic.While conversion and average spending

38、 for non-VIC consumers declined,VICs continued to exhibit strong performance in these metrics.Hainan duty-free sales declined by approximately 30%in 2022.In 2023,Hainans duty-free sales grew by about 25%,not back to its 2021 level(see Figure 4).This rebound can be attributed to the return of many to

39、urists,which was a direct result of the recovery in domestic travel and the stimulus measures implemented by the Hainan government.It is worth noting that although the traffic increased,the number of duty-free shoppers did not grow as significantly,indicating a reduced conversion rate.Additionally,t

40、he average spending per shopper decreased by more than 25%,likely due to lower discount levels,less Daigou activities,and an increased rationality among consumers.Source:Haikou Custom;Ministry of Culture and Tourism;Literature research;Financial reports;Analyst reports;Bain analysisA strong rebound

41、in tourists drove the rebound in sales,a direct result of domestic travel recovery and the Hainan governments stimulusConversion and aver-age spending de-creased vs.2021,both likely due to lower dis-count levels,less Daigou activities,and increased rationality in consumptionMainland China personal l

42、uxury sales(B RMB)Hainan duty-free sales as share of total market:OthersHainan duty-free salesCAGR182120182122 2223E1920212223E36%(11)%11%70%(29)%25%39%(13)%12%6%6%8%11%9%10%Figure 4:Duty-free sales in Hainan rebounded in 2023,benefiting from domestic travel recovery,and Hainan governments stimulus2

43、023 China Luxury Goods Market:A Year of Recovery and Transition5To summarize,Chinas luxury market has experienced a double-digit rebound although not yet back to the historical high of 2021.This can be attributed to factors such as low consumer confidence,a slower-than-expected economic recovery,and

44、 Chinese consumers return to luxury shopping overseas.When examining the growth differences across brands,it becomes evident that about half of the leading brands,as well as several niche brands,have managed to recover their 2021 sales levels.Several factors have contributed to the success of these

45、brands:Brands with iconic offers over-performed those with seasonal offers as consumers value longer term investment in times of uncertainty.Brands with a higher concentration of Very Important Customers(VICs)have shown greater resilience in the uncertain economic situation.Bigger brands tend to out

46、perform smaller brands due to more resources and stronger capabilities.This scale advantage enables them to execute high-quality marketing events and provide exceptional in-store services.Niche brands that have consistently invested in building brand desirability over multiple years have experienced

47、 success.This year,our research explores two significant trends and their impact on the luxury markets growth outlook.They are:i)luxury shopping overseas,and ii)the Daigou marketTrend 1:Luxury shopping overseasPrior to the Covid-19 pandemic,approximately one-third of mainland Chinese luxury spending

48、 took place within mainland China,while the majority occurred outside mainland.However,due to closed borders,the ratio shifted dramatically to over 90%for both 2021 and 2022.As Chinese overseas tourism progressively resumed throughout the year,we estimated that in 2023 around 70%of mainland Chinese

49、luxury spending happened within the mainland(see Figure 5).The recovery of Chinese tourists luxury spending in Europe and Asia has been significant.Mainland Chinese spending abroad in 2023 recovered to 40%of 2019 level in Europe and 65%in Asia.This recovery can be attributed to a combination of incr

50、eased traffic and higher average spending compared to pre-Covid levels.Various factors have contributed to this partial recovery,including increased traveling and lodging costs abroad.European tourism has seen a slower recovery,as many middle-and high-income consumers have opted for closer Asian des

51、tinations that provide better travel options in a context of high travel fares,particularly taking advantage of exchange rate advantages in countries like Japan.2023 China Luxury Goods Market:A Year of Recovery and Transition6The pricing gaps between luxury goods in mainland China and other markets

52、have played a critical role in the resurgence of overseas shopping.A sample check of leading products in mainland China,Europe,and Asian markets has revealed significant price gaps across categories such as fashion and leather products,making luxury shopping abroad more attractive.Importantly,these

53、price gaps have remained unchanged compared to 2022(see Figure 6).Source:Bain-Altagamma 2023 Worldwide Luxury Market Monitor;World Travel&Tourism Council;CBRE Group;Bain analysisGeographic breakdown for Chinese luxury goods spending(%,B Euro)Recovery driven by traffic recovery and increase in averag

54、e spending compared with pre-CovidMainland overseas tourism traffic has recovered about 30%in Europe,and 30-50%in Asia,led by destinations like Japan and Hong KongMainland Chinese overseas tourism will likely fully recover by mid-to-end of 2024,with destinations like HK,Japan,and S.Korea as the top

55、choices100%76936483806040202015201920212023EOverseaspurchaseNuancesMainland Chinese back to spending abroad,although not fully back to pre-Covid levelChinese tourist spending,by region(2023 as%of 2019 spending)In Europe40%65%In AsiaMainlandChinapurchase0Figure 5:The mainland China share of spending

56、on luxury goods peaked in 2021 because of closed borders but declined as China overseas tourism resumes2023 China Luxury Goods Market:A Year of Recovery and Transition7Note:Top 3 SKUs were selected for 3-5 leading brands in each category;France official website prices applied for bag,shoe,and jewelr

57、y;Switzerland official website prices were applied for watches;the EUR/RMB exchange rate is 7.7 and the CHF/RMB exchange rate is 8.1 Source:China official website,France official website,Switzerland official websiteThe size of the price gap between China and EU has remained similar to December 2022

58、across all categoriesPrice gap between Chinese and European label price(as of December 11,2023)Luxury bag(10K RMB)Entry luxury bag(100%Figure 8:New and more professional Daigou models are emerging,especially in Fashion and Leather Goods,reaching a substantial GMV scaleDespite higher restrictions on

59、Daigou activities in the Beauty sector,new and more professional Daigou models are emerging,particularly in the Fashion and Leather Goods sector.According to Re-Hub,Daigou operators have become more professional by accessing overseas goods from wholesalers at lower prices.They have also embraced a m

60、ore platformized approach,providing consumers with an aggregated and authenticated platform for shopping.According to Re-Hub,Daigou channels that Re-Hub tracks offer prices that can be anywhere from 0%to over 40%lower than the brands official prices in mainland China(see Figure 8).The larger price g

61、aps are often a result of luxury brands control and size of their wholesale channels worldwide.For brands that have no or tightly controlled wholesale channels,fashion and leather goods sales on these platforms can account for 1020%of their official sales in mainland China.However,for brands with a

62、large and somewhat uncontrolled wholesale channel,the platform sales can represent 6070%or even more of their total mainland China sales.According to Re-Hub,some of the platforms it tracks have experienced double-digit luxury GMV growth per year,including in 2023.2023 China Luxury Goods Market:A Yea

63、r of Recovery and Transition10A Look AheadAfter a turbulent three years due to the COVID-19 pandemic,it is believed that 2023 marked the beginning of Chinas luxury market transitioning towards a normalized post-COVID growth trajectory.The fundamentals of luxury consumption in China remain strong in

64、the long run,although there are uncertainties in the near term regarding the speed of consumer confidence recovery and the growth of luxury shopping overseas.It is expected that most of the trends witnessed in 2023 will continue or amplify,leading to a mid-single-digit growth rate in Chinas luxury m

65、arket in 2024.The recovery of overseas luxury shopping will continue as cross-border tourism develops.The extent of cross-border tourism recovery in 2024 will primarily depend on the speed of economic recovery and changes in travel and lodging costs.Various travel agencies and organizations project

66、that Chinas overseas tourism will fully recover by mid to end 20241,with destinations like Hong Kong and Japan being the top choices.Therefore,in the context of expanding luxury spending outside the mainland in 2024,it is expected that there will be another year of recovery of Chinese overseas luxur

67、y consumption.It remains crucial for brands to implement harmonized global pricing strategies to reduce the incentives for consumers to buy outside the mainland.The total investable assets of Chinas High Net Worth Individuals(HNWIs)are projected to grow at double-digit rate2,serving as a primary dri

68、ver of mainland Chinas luxury growth.However,these individuals are more likely to allocate a portion of their budget to overseas shopping.In 2023,middle-to-high-income consumers displayed more rational and discerning behavior.It may take some time for their sentiment to improve,which could impact vo

69、lume and blended pricing.The entry-level consumers,who have demonstrated resiliency in 2023 with entry-level items,will remain an important segment for luxury brands.However,their ticket price is lower,and they buy more online.We expect most brands to slow down their store footprint expansion,except

70、 for a few leading ones that experienced exceptional growth in 2023.Brands will focus on optimizing their existing store network and improving same-store productivity.The Hainan duty-free market is poised to become a duty-free island by 2025.As Hainans shopping environment matures,it will attract a

71、more diverse consumer base and receive increased investment from luxury brands.The Daigou market is unlikely to cool off,and its future trends will depend on brands global control over their wholesale market overseas.2023 China Luxury Goods Market:A Year of Recovery and Transition11In the long run,C

72、hinas growth is stabilizing at a lower yet still significant rate.Real GDP is projected to grow at 45%in the coming years,creating a substantial incremental market and solidifying Chinas position as a powerhouse for luxury growth.In 2023,Chinese luxury consumption is estimated to account for approxi

73、mately 2224%of the worlds total,with mainland China comprising about 16%(both excluding Daigou).By 2030,Chinese luxury consumption is expected to reach 3540%of the worlds total,with mainland China reaching 2426%,solidifying its position as one of the leading luxury markets globally.Lastly,Chinas lux

74、ury operations will continue to set the standard worldwide,encompassing the quality of retail establishments,amazing consumer experiences,sophisticated clienteling activities,extraordinary events planning and execution,the versatility of the digital landscape,and the necessary capabilities and talen

75、t to meet the ever-increasing expectations of Chinese consumers.1 World Travel&Tourism Council,CBRE Group,2 China Merchant Bank report on China Private Wealth 2023Bold ideas.Bold teams.Extraordinary results.Bain&Company is a global consultancy that helps the worlds most ambitious change makers defin

76、e the future.Across 65 cities in 40 countries,we work alongside our clients as one team with a shared ambition to achieve extraordinary results,outperform the competition,and redefine industries.We complement our tailored,integrated expertise with a vibrant ecosystem of digital innovators to deliver

77、 better,faster,and more enduring outcomes.Our 10-year commitment to invest more than$1 billion in pro bono services brings our talent,expertise,and insight to organizations tackling todays urgent challenges in education,racial equity,social justice,economic development,and the environment.Since our founding in 1973,we have measured our success by the success of our clients,and we proudly maintain the highest level of client advocacy in the industry.For more information,visit