2020年疫情下全球健康及危機應對報告 - 麥肯錫（英文版）（54頁）.pdf

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1、Copyright 2020 McKinsey excludes China; note that South Korea incremental cases are declining, however other countries are increasing 3.Eastern-Mediterranean WHO region 4.Includes Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, French Polynesia, New Caledonia, Papua New Guinea 5.Increasing: 10% increase in cumulative

2、 incremental cases over last 7 days, compared to incremental cases over last 8-14 days; stabilizing: -10% 10%; decreasing: -10%; if difference in incremental cumulative cases over last 7 days is less than 100, stabilizing 250-999 100,000 reported cases Asia (excl. China)2 Total cases Total deaths 1,

3、047,600 27,180 Middle East3 Total cases Total deaths 1,153,200 27,100 Europe Total cases Total deaths 2,774,200 199,900 South America Total cases Total deaths 2,422,800 91,100 Oceania4 Total cases Total deaths 9,600 100 North and Central America1 Total cases Total deaths 3,379,100 172,000 China Tota

4、l cases Total deaths 85,300 4,600 Africa Total cases Total deaths 356,700 6,700 As of July 6, 2020 McKinsey 2. Case growth is negative if not shown. It is calculated as the % difference in the 7 day average of new cases from one week ago to today; countries with case growth of 5% or more shown; grow

5、th rates of 0-5% are considered stable. Countries with incremental daily cases 100 are considered stable (even if they have 5%+ growth) McKinsey 2. All remaining European countries, including Russia; 3. Includes Japan, Singapore, and South Korea; 4. All remaining Asian countries, not including Russi

6、a; 5. Includes European territories in the Caribbean; 6. Data points shown as 7 days moving average to account for reporting differences (e.g., reporting only once per week), July 3 data not shown since UK adjusted case numbers. Source: WHO, JHU 80% 0% 40% 20% 60% 100% Mar 1 Jan 26 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1

7、 Jul 1 Latam + Caribbean5: 30% US1+ Canada: 29% Other Asian4: 14% The proportion of new cases is shifting from countries in Europe, to North America, Latin America, and Asian countries Middle East: 10% EU + UKAfricaUS1+ CanadaChinaOceania + North Asia3Other European2Other Asian4Middle EastLatin Amer

8、ica + Caribbean5 EU + UK: 3% Other European2: 8% Oceania + N. Asia3+ China: 0.3% Africa: 6% Fraction of daily new cases6as a % of global daily new cases, by country/region Total new cases on day 1,752187,614 125,540 76,83387,399 McKinsey 2. Can also be shown as the ratio: 1 Confirmed case : case det

9、ection rate - 1 undetected cases; 3. Several studies have been conducted to assess the infection fatality rate, yielding a wide range IFR values (0.05% - 4.25%, see appendix for details). A survey of the most widely accepted studies suggest a range of IFR values from 0.2% to 1.0% range. Testing is n

10、ot capturing all cases, leaving a gap between confirmed case counts and the actual infected Actual cases = confirmed cases + undetected cases Source: Oxford CEBM https:/www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2.full.pdf; https:/www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/doedelighed-skal-formentlig-taelle

11、s-i-promiller-danske-blodproever-kaster-nyt-lys; COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California, MedRxiv preprint; https:/www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf; Article Projecting the tran

12、smission dynamics of SARS-COV-2 during the post-pandemic period“; Article “Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: a modelling study in Hubei, China and northern Italy”; Article “Estimating the Infection Rate Among Symptomatic COVID-19 Cases in the United States”;

13、https:/www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.30.20081828v1.full.pdf Estimates of seroprevalence based on testing suggest much higher infection rates than currently identified United States example: 330M population, 2.2M confirmed cases, 119k fatalities Current as of June 19, 2020 McKinsey Balancin

14、g act, gradual / cycles assume target RNPIof 1.7; Limited response assume target RNPIof 2.0 Potential Scenarios McKinsey several candidates could be available in the next 12 18 months As of June 25, 2020 Source: Reuters, Time, Clinicaltrials.gov, NYTimes 1.WHO 2.Milken Institute COVID-19 tracker Pha

15、se IPhase I/IIPhase IIPhase II/III 3.T 4.NCBI 5.N 6.Cen.acs.org7.Msphere.asm.org 2020FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepDecNovOct CanSino Biologics Moderna BioNTech and Pfizer Novavax University of Oxford Sinopharm (2 assets) Sinovac Biotech Inovio Pharmaceuticals RNA vaccine Symvivo Aivita Biomedical DNA vacc

16、ine Inactivated vaccine Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Viral vector Shenzhen University Clover Biopharmaceuticals Protein subunit Imperial College London Genexine Gamaleya Research Institute There are 17 COVID-19 vaccine candidates in clinical trials Reasons to believe a vaccine could be availa

17、ble by mid-2021 Potential roadblocks that could prevent a vaccine by mid-2021 220+ vaccine candidates in development with 16 vaccines in human clinical trials2 First candidate was created 42 days after the virus was sequenced3 No COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by any regulatory agency Limited

18、data available on safety and efficacy profiles of vaccine candidates Unprecedented pipeline Potential for expedited regulatory approval timelines5 Emergency Use Authorization being considered by FDA regulators5 Multiple unknowns remain regarding the disease7 and some novel vaccine technology platfor

19、ms Regulatory Vaccine candidates span 8+ technologies with broad range of attributes, including novel platforms (e.g., mRNA, DNA) with potential for faster development timelines1,4 Several of the platforms most advanced in development for COVID-19 vaccines (e.g., mRNA, DNA) have 0 approved products

20、for human use6 Technology platforms Limited evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is mutating at a rapid rate, with similar patterns of low mutation rates observed in other COVID1 The longer the virus is in circulation in the population, the greater the chance of a potential mutation which could affect vaccine e

21、fficacy1 Virus characteristics And many considerations for and against the availability of a vaccine in the next 12 18 months McKinsey % of total global respondents1 Updated June 9, 2020 1.Monthly surveys: April 2April 10, 2020, N=2,079; May 4May 8, 2020, N=2,452; June 15, N=2,174 Virus spread and p

22、ublic health response Effective response, but (regional) virus resurgence Broad failure of public health interventions Rapid and effective control of virus spread Knock-on effects and economic policy response Ineffective interventionsPartially effective interventions Highly effective interventions A

23、3 A1A2 A4B1 B2 B3B4B5 WorldApril May June surveys 151316% 111412% 322% 161719% 313633% 977% 645% 655% 211% McKinsey B2B customers are also similarly changing their patterns (e.g., X% of physicians now prefer remote sales from pharmaceutical reps) McKinsey April 25-28, 2020 2 - McKinsey B2B Decision

24、Maker Pulse Survey, April 2020 (N=3,619 for Global. Respondents from France, Spain, Italy, UK, Germany, South Korea, Japan, China, India, US, and Brazil) 61% 6% 51% 17% Banking 45% 33% Average (All industries) 21% 30% 31% Grocery 31% 13% Apparel 31% Travel 51% 73% 37% Regular usersFirst time users M

25、ost first-time customers (86%) are satisfied/ very satisfied with digital adoption and majority (75%) plan to continue using digital post-COVID % of respondents B2B decision makers believe digital sales interactions will be 2X more important than traditional interactions in the next few weeks (vs eq

26、ually important pre-COVID) % of respondents Consumers are accelerating adoption of digital channels1and so are B2B decision makers2 McKinsey May 15-18, (n=703) McKinsey “Is Working virtually Effective? Gallup Research Says Yes”, Hickman, RobinsonMcKinsey 2 Kearney US Reshoring Index 2019 report, LCC

27、 low cost countries; 3 2019 GDP taken into account for values related to COVID-19 crisis; 2008 financial crisis data based on data published by IMF in March 2009, includes discretionary measures announced for 2008-2010; 4 - Excludes Turkey and EU (no data available); 3X Governments worldwide are pro

28、viding stimulus packages1,3 to alleviate COVID-19 impacts Regulatory uncertainty may require corporate adaptability to manage this complexity Resulting potential complexity for organizations New relationship with government with depth of change unclear No global playbook given highly varied approach

29、es and competencies by country Likely new regulations affecting manufacturing locations and supplier economics Disruption to global supply chains (for e.g., move to near- shore, heavily controlled vs global, decentralized partners) 2nd order implications on pricing, competition and consumer behavior

30、 Declining confidence in free market mechanisms Statnews; NPR; Al Jazeera; Time; Associated Press; The Guardian; beat-covid-19-have-to-do-it-again/; Reuters; BBC; Financial Times New transmission incidents indicate emerging ways of virus transmission (for e.g., droplet transmission due to air-condit

31、ioning) 2 Nearly 171 vaccine candidates (13 in clinical trials, 28 entering trials in 2020, others unknown) and over 210 therapeutics1candidates are currently in consideration 1.As of May 20, 2020 - Source: Milken Institute, BioCentury, WHO, Nature, CT.gov, ChiCTR, clinicaltrials.gov, press search 6

32、00 400 0 200 800 Mar 19: Lifted state of emergency mandates in Hokkaido Mar 25: Daily case rate began to increase Apr 7: State of emergency declared Daily new cases May 4: State of emergency extended 0 20 40 May 7-9: Identified 50 new cases May 9-10: Re- instituted social distancing Apr 20: Workplac

33、es, shopping malls, and parks gradually reopened May 6: Reopened bars and restaurants 0 2,000 4,000 May 6: Reopened shops; allowed family visits Post May 10: Select districts to postpone exit from lockdown Japan South Korea Germany ReopeningResurgenceResponse Public health situation such as hospital

34、 capacity, reopening guidelines/timing, testing and tracing vary widely across regions For instance, many countries had to re-institute lockdown measures after resurgence events post re-opening May 9-10: Focal resurgence based on Rt monitoring McKinsey % of total global respondents1 Updated June 9,

35、2020 1.Monthly surveys: April 2April 10, 2020, N=2,079; May 4May 8, 2020, N=2,452; June 15, N=2,174 Virus spread and public health response Effective response, but (regional) virus resurgence Broad failure of public health interventions Rapid and effective control of virus spread Knock-on effects an

36、d economic policy response Ineffective interventions Partially effective interventions Highly effective interventions A3 A1A2 A4B1 B2 B3B4B5 WorldApril May June surveys 151316% 111412% 322% 161719% 313633% 977% 645% 655% 211% McKinsey Bureau of economic analysis; McKinsey team analysis, in partnersh

37、ip with Oxford Economics Scenario A1 Scenario A3 Pre-WW IIPost-WW II United States Real GDP %, total draw-down from previous peak Scenario B2 McKinsey & Company52 A1 B2 -18 -6 -10 -16 -4 -12 -14 -2 -8 0 +Q8+Q7+Q1+Q2+Q6+Q3+Q4+Q5+Q9+Q10+Q13+Q11+Q12+Q14 Pace of decline of economic activity in Q2 2020 i

38、s likely to be the steepest since decline since WWII Updated June 9, 2020 United States, comparison of post-WWII recessions % real GDP draw-down from previous peak Source: Bureau of economic analysis, McKinsey team analysis, in partnership with Oxford Economics A3 Global financial crisis 73 oil shoc

39、k 81 inflation recession A2 McKinsey & Company53 -30 -25 -45 -40 20 -5 -50 -35 -10 -15 -55 10 5 -20 0 15 Many industries have recovered most of their share price drop from recent months, some are up YTD Weighted average year-to-date local currency shareholder returns by industry in percent1. Width o

40、f bars is starting market cap in $ Source: Corporate Performance Analytics, S&CF Insights, S&P 1.Data set includes global top 5000 companies by market cap in 2019, excluding some subsidiaries, holding companies and companies who have delisted since Remaining decline on Jun 26Increase since Mar 23 th

41、rough Personal & Office Goods Advanced Electronics Media Retail Pharmaceuticals High Tech Healthcare Supplies & Distribution Consumer Services As of Jun 26 2020 Commercial Aerospace Air & TravelOil & GasBanksInsurance Real Estate Transport & Infra- structure Apparel, Fashion, & Luxury Defense Conglo- merates Healthcare Facilities & Services Automotive & Assembly Telecom Basic Materials Electric Power & Natural Gas Consumer Durables Food & Beverage Logistics & Trading Other Financial Services Business Services Chemicals & Agriculture Healthcare Payors Medical Technology