2020年食品零售業洞察報告 - 道衡（英文版）.pdf

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1、Food Retail Industry Insights S p r i n g 2 0 2 0 2 Food Retail Industry Insights | Spring 2020 Sector Spotlight: COVID-19 Impact 3 Public Company Benchmarking and Valuation 15 Recent Food Retail Transaction Activity 22 About Our Food Retail Corporate Finance Practice 23 T a b l e o f C o n t e n t

2、s Trends and Insights 7 Sources 1.Consumer Spending Tracker for Measured Channels. IRI. April 2, 2020 2.How the Coronavirus Crisis is Changing Grocery Shopping. Supermarket News. April 3, 2020 3.Grocery Workers Are Beginning To Die of Coronavirus. Washington Post. April 6, 2020 4.Food Spending of Mi

3、ddle-Income Households Hardest Hit by the Great Recession. United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. September 27, 2018 5.S however, it did not result in any fundamental changes to the business. Fairway continued to struggle due to market pressures and was unable to compete

4、effectively. Village Supermarket, ShopRites parent company, acquired various stores and assets for USD 76 million. Key Food and Amazon also bought various assets for USD 5 million and USD 1.5 million, respectively.11 Save-A-Lot recently secured a USD 350 million cash infusion to fuel the discount gr

5、ocers business transformation plan. Unlike many of its competitors, the company was able to avoid filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy by successfully carrying out an out-of-court restructuring. On April 3, 2020, Save-A-Lot completed both debt-for-equity and debt-for-debt exchanges that reduced debt by

6、USD 500 million and brought a USD 350 million capital infusion from new and existing lenders.12 Much like industry peers, Save-A-Lot faced competitive pressures but was able to modify its capital structure to better weather such challenges plaguing smaller food retail players. Trends and Insights 2

7、Wave of Bankruptcies See page 2 for data sources 11 Food Retail Industry Insights | Spring 2020 Trends and Insights 3 Grocery has proven to be a category that has withstood e-commerce penetration in recent years. Online grocery orders often include dozens of itemsome frozen, some cold, some room tem

8、peratureand much of the inventory is perishable and not standard. This dynamic makes the delivery of a positive consumer experience much more challenging. Despite this dynamic, Nielsen and the Food Marketing Institute estimate that Americans total online grocery spending will reach USD 117 billion b

9、y 2023. What may ultimately differentiate food retailers in the e-grocery race will be fast and reliable last-mile service, the most challenging and expensive link in the supply chain. Consumers who have a positive online experience tend to be more loyal to banners and increase spend. As a result, i

10、ndustry leaders such as Amazon and Walmart are devoting significant resources to developing a cost-efficient, potentially transparent “cold” supply chain. This is evident in the higher penetration of eCommerce sales at these two retailers as compared to other grocery chains. Consumers have adopted c

11、lick-and-collect food shopping as an alternative to entering stores and walking down aisles. Research conducted by Nielsen shows almost half of U.S. shoppers have used click-and-collect methods for groceries. This share is likely to grow as a result of the current pandemic. For instance, Walmart has

12、 doubled efforts to provide a seamless pickup experience by tripling the number of items available for same-day pickup, increasing staffing at pickup desks and installing “pickup towers,” in-store high-tech vending machines for online orders that allow customers to pick up items in less than a minut

13、e by scanning a bar code sent to their smartphones.14 By leveraging existing store footprint and reorganizing spaces to better accommodate click-and-collect and delivery, companies like Walmart are able to generate higher return on assets without having to invest in new fulfillment facilities or oth

14、er infrastructure. The Battle for E-Grocery 60% 26% 7% 8% 6% 4%4% 63% 37% 16% 11% 9% 8%5% AmazonWalmartTargetKrogerCostcoWhole Foods Peapod (Ahold) 20182019 8.1% 5.8% 21.9% 19.6% 10.4% 37.8% Clothing and Shoes ElectronicsHome Improvement Bath, Bedding ToysGrocery Projected E-Commerce Sales CAGR 2017

15、-202213 See page 2 for data sources % of U.S. Consumers Who Bought Groceries Online in the Past 12 Months13 12 Food Retail Industry Insights | Spring 2020 Trends and Insights 3 As part of the last-mile race, food retailers are exploring various avenues to compete, including partnerships with deliver

16、y startups and vertical integration through acquisitions. Most notably, Kroger and Aldi have jumped on board with Instacart, which is now positioning itself as a savior for grocers with little to no e- commerce or delivery capabilities with an ability to efficiently reach more than 80% of U.S. house

17、holds. Instacart also delivers groceries for some of the largest retailers in the U.S., including Albertsons and Costco. Albertsons, Target and H-E-B have all acquired food delivery startups to improve their delivery capabilities and digitize their operations5. Through its acquisition of startup Shi

18、pt in 2018, Target now offers same-day delivery. Boosting its last-mile capabilities, Costco has acquired third-party and logistics provider Innovel Solutions for USD 1 billion to grow e-commerce sales and expand customer reach.5 Costcos acquisition comes as competitors bolster their distribution, l

19、ogistics and delivery capabilities to meet demand for fast-growing product categories and adapt to an emerging omnichannel business model. Efforts include the construction of new distribution centers, automated facilities to fulfill online offers and dedicated space in stores for e-commerce. To furt

20、her fuel its e-commerce operations and improve associated labor costs, Kroger recently partnered with British online grocer Ocado Group, with the intention to build as many as 20 automated grocery warehouses in the U.S.15Ocados fulfillment process is designed for the unique aspects of grocery, inclu

21、ding a system that notifies workers the order in which they should fill a grocery bag. Ocados system saves one hour of labor for every 50-item order, a noteworthy feature considering the industrys notoriously thin profit margins, and will enable Kroger to fill orders particularly quickly and with a

22、high level of accuracy, both key elements of customer satisfaction. The Battle for E-Grocery Costco acquired Innovel to bolster its e-commerce distribution, logistics and delivery capabilities Date: March 18, 2020 Acquisition Price: USD 1 billion H-E-B acquired on-demand delivery startup Favor and h

23、ave focused their primary operations within Texas Date: February 15, 2018 Acquisition Price: N/A Bought grocery delivery startup Shipt to increase its logistics capabilities. The acquisition enables Target to offer same- day delivery Date: December 13, 2017 Acquisition Price: USD 550 million Partner

24、ed with British online grocer Ocado Group to build up to 20 automated grocery warehouses in the U.S. Date: July 22, 2019 Acquisition Price: N/A Krogers partnership comes at a time when rivals Amazon and Walmart are continually unveiling new techniques to differentiate their e-grocery models, includi

25、ng Walmarts initiative to test driverless cars for grocery delivery to optimize fulfillment and the implementation of blockchain to trace grocery last-mile transit. Delivery startups, large distribution centers, driverless delivery and blockchain form part of the grocery delivery puzzle. Grocery sto

26、re players are working towards optimizing their distribution capabilities to offer the fastest, most reliable and cost efficient services. See page 2 for data sources Note: All trademarks, trade names, or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners 13 Food Retail Industry Ins

27、ights | Spring 2020 CompanyDescription Latest Financing and Implied Valuation Selected Investors Headquarters: Chicago, Illinois Foxtrot Deliver Market provides an online retail platform designed to facilitate both offline and online shopping for customers. The companys platform offers brick-and-mor

28、tar stores along with a mobile application to shop for curated collections of drinks, food and other everyday items and get it delivered to the specified address, enabling consumers to save their time and reduce their efforts in everyday shopping. Feb. 2020 Series A1 | USD 18 million raised Total Ra

29、ised: USD 26 million Pre-Money Valuation: USD 20 million Headquarters: Milwaukee, Wisconsin Bright Cellarss monthly wine subscription offers a personalized wine experience. The companys offering is based on a data collection model that utilizes an algorithm to provide personalized recommendations an

30、d deliver the product directly to the customer. Jun. 2019 Series A | USD 8 million raised Total Raised: USD 12 million Headquarters: San Francisco, California Instacart provides an on-demand goods delivery application designed to order and secure delivery of groceries from local stores. The companys

31、 application uses software that easily determines the right time to dispatch a shopper, based on weather, traffic, sporting events and other factors, enabling its users to shop for grocery items from multiple retailers and have them conveniently delivered on time. Dec. 2018 Series F | USD 871 millio

32、n raised Total Raised: USD 1,950 million Pre-Money Valuation: USD 7 billion Headquarters: Boston, Massachusetts Drizly is a developer of an online liquor retail platform intended to deliver alcohol and other related products. The companys e-commerce platform offers a wide range of alcoholic beverage

33、s like wines, beer, gin, vodka and whiskey, which can be ordered along with extras like mixers and garnishes, enabling customers to order alcoholic drinks without having to go to the store. Dec. 2018 Series C | USD 35 million raised Total Raised: USD 70 million Headquarters: Marina del Rey, Californ

34、ia Thrive Market is a provider of an online grocery shopping platform intended to make healthy living easy and affordable for everyone. The companys membership-based, e-commerce platform offers edible products including, chicken, peanut butter, pasta, beauty-related goods, supplements, vitamins and

35、baby products, providing consumers with access to a carefully curated collection of relatively healthy and organic food products. Jun. 2018 Series B | USD 65 million raised Total Raised: USD 226 million Pre-Money Valuation: USD 585 million Headquarters: Bronx, New York FreshDirect is a provider of a

36、n online retail platform to sell food and grocery products. The company delivers meat, sustainable fish, specialty cheese, fresh dairy and fresh grocery products in the U.S. May 2018 PE Growth Total Raised: USD 517 million Capital Raises for E-Commerce Food Retail Platforms Sources: Pitchbook Note:

37、All trademarks, trade names, or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners 14 Food Retail Industry Insights | Spring 2020 Trends and Insights In recent years, the grocery industry has seen heightened pressure on profit margins, despite industry sales gains. Since 2018, over

38、15 states in the U.S. have increased the minimum wage, some entering the USD 8-10 range and others tracking to reach USD 20.16 Although raising prices used to be the go-to strategy for retailers looking to widen their grocery store profit margins, this practice is no longer sustainable in todays ret

39、ail landscape. With key players, such as Aldi and Walmart, offering ultra-competitive prices, food price inflation has moderated, as the rest of the industry has shifted to match the prices of competitors. Despite the current tailwind generated by higher prevalence of at-home dining and shelter-in-p

40、lace orders, resulting in dramatic increases in sales volumes, food retailers are unlikely to experience improvements at the operating margin level. Operating margins will likely remain flat due to even higher labor, safety and logistics expenses. Not only are many retailers seeking to increase thei

41、r employee base to handle the increase in demand, sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic, but wage increases and paid-leave benefits are required to keep staff motivated. Necessary investments in sanitation efforts, including the setup of protective barriers at registers to block germs between cashiers an

42、d customers and the daily sanitization of grocery carts, to protect consumers and employees will also limit any potential operating margin gains. Although analysts estimate comparable sales growth for U.S. grocers of 3.9% for 2020, in lieu of the 2.5% forecast before the pandemic,higher costs will o

43、ffset these gains, even after accounting for economic relief packages and tax holidays.17 Companies Investing in Sanitation/Workforce/Workers Benefits:18 Amazon temporarily increased wages by USD 2 Walmart is deploying temperature checks and temporarily increasing wages by USD 2 Kroger to provide US

44、D 2 premium above typical base rate for all hours worked between March 29 and April 18, in addition to a one-time bonus for front-line associates Tesco (UK) is hiring 20,000 extra staff and has increased hourly wages by 10% Lidl U.S. will hire 1,000 temporary employees for a minimum of two months ac

45、ross its store network and distribution centers Kroger, Giant Foods, Albertsons and Publix Super Markets are installing plexiglass barriers and partitions to protect cashiers 4 Persistent Margin Pressures See page 2 for data sources 15 Food Retail Industry Insights | Spring 2020 4.6% 10.2% 4.3% 5.1%

46、 2.5% 6.6% 2.8% 3.4% USD 604 564 687 $623 Operational Benchmarking Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence aLatest FY reported financials bLast Twelve Months period as of April 30, 2020 Note: All trademarks, trade names, or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners 2019 Chan

47、geLTM Change b2020E Change Early 2020 analyst reports predict strong top-line growth before expected COVID-19 lift Same Store Sales a Sales/Square Feeta Revenue Growth 1.1% 2.1% 3.1% 2.2% 0.6% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% Natural / Organic Supermarkets Small / Mid-Cap Supermarkets Large-Cap Supermarkets Total 16

48、Food Retail Industry Insights | Spring 2020 Operational Benchmarking (contd) Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence aLast Twelve Months period as of April 30, 2020 Note: All trademarks, trade names, or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners Gross Margin Gross and profita

49、bility margins remain stable amid cost pressures LTM a EBITDA Margin Year-Over-Year Change % LTM a Year-Over-Year Change % 23.8% 30.0% 21.7% 24.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 3.9% 5.6% 5.6% 5.0% (0.1%) 0.0% (0.1%) (0.1%) Natural / Organic Supermarkets Small / Mid-Cap Supermarkets Large-Cap Supermarkets Total 17 Food Retail Industry Insights | Spring 2020 1.48x 0.85x 1.15x 1.23x 0.05x 0.06x 0.09x 0.07x 6.9x 7.0 x 9.4x 7.9x 0.26x 0.40 x 0.62x 0.45x 20% (4%) 24% 17% Valuation Benchmarking Valuations for large-cap supermarkets conti