德勤：2020年零售業展望報告（英文版）（12頁）.pdf

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1、2020 retail industry outlook Convenience as a promise 2020 retail industry outlook | Convenience as a promise 2 Contents Convenience matters 3 Sizing up the year ahead 3 Rising customer expectations and its cost 3 Economic outlook 4 Convenience must be enabled through the entire organization 4 Marke

2、ting as a differentiator 4 Connect: Digital enablement 6 Revisiting product strategy 6 Stores arent just stores anymore 7 Deliver on the promise through supply chain 8 Convenience is more than a state of mind 9 For consumers, shopping in todays environment is the most convenient it has ever been. Fo

3、rward-thinking retailers are setting the expectations bar high for the rest of the pack. In this years outlook, we explore convenience, what it means today, and how retailers can position themselves to take on the challenge. 2020 retail industry outlook | Convenience as a promise 3 Convenience matte

4、rs Predictably, 2019 was a year in transition. There was stability in the positioning of the top five retailers, uncertainty among the majority, and a few notable bankruptcies. The emphasis on understanding what consumers really want continued to expand the gap between the leaders and everyone else

5、who followed. For retailers, understanding how consumer expectations are evolving has never been more important. The good news here is that there is some predictability when it comes to what consumers want. In our recent holiday study, over two-thirds of US adult shoppers said they hold price, produ

6、ct, and convenience above all when it comes to what they want.1 Fair price. With drastically increased transparency and automated pricing making it difficult for a fair price to be the final differentiator, price alone does not drive consumer loyalty. Quality and variety of products. Because persona

7、lized and commoditized products are offered in so many formats and channels, there is an overabundance of choice. Convenience. Whether in the store or online, consumers want a friction-free experience, from finding ideas and inspiration to making purchases, managing returns, and advocating for the b

8、rand. With the convergence of supply chain, digital technologies, and other innovations, convenience is becoming a much more important piece of the equation. Sizing up the year ahead Uncertainty is the name of the game when it comes to how the next 12 months will play out. With a possible recession

9、and potential fallout from tariff tensions looming, retailers should have a game plan that can handle adjustments when and as needed. While the overall economy might be losing its shine in 2020, it presents retailers an opportunity to review their playbook for riding out a downturn. To strengthen th

10、eir preparedness, retailers should focus on four factors critical to success:2 Determine why they matter Build a war chest to invest in growth Embrace technology and automation to better leverage growth Look outside their four walls to embrace partnerships Overall, retailers will likely have to be m

11、ore judicious with investments and flexible with their plansready to adapt, whether or not a recession comes or if tariff tensions continue. It seems that for 2020, those retailers who prepare for the worst will likely fare the best. Rising customer expectations and its cost Given the rapid pace of

12、technological advances and social transformation, expectations for outstanding customer service and experience are now being set by those outside the business. Consumer expectations are going global, while age-old national and industrial divides are shrinking. To stay competitive, many retailers mus

13、t make a difficult choice on what to offer and how to make sense of it, profitability-wise. What this means is that there is a necessary conversation around tough tradeoffs what really matters to the consumers, and what must companies have internally before going after the shiny new object? For inst

14、ance, our holiday study revealed that more than 85 percent of the holiday shoppers picked free over fast shipping.3 While some companies have publicly reported spending close to a billion dollars in one quarter to make free or fast shipping options available, these investments should be made with su

15、stainability in mind and with cost transparency at the core.4 Based on the shopping context, retailers will likely have to play a balancing act, with trade-offs between various themes that influence conveniencespeed of transaction, value to customer, and efforts for retailers (for example, breadth o

16、f assortment, cost of operations). Figure 1. Trade-offs for meeting customer expectations around convenience Convenience Value to customer Efforts for retailers Speed of transaction 2020 retail industry outlook | Convenience as a promise 4 At its very core, convenience is a human-centered experience

17、 that provides customers with a feeling of ease. There are many ways that consumers can perceive convenience: “Saves me time (same-day shipping)” “Easy access to more offerings” “Special access to services that meet my needs” “Easily see the added value Im receiving” “Meet all my needs in one place”

18、 What many people are looking for is something that simplifies life while delivering a positive experience. People want to “outsource” the work of getting products. Instead of focusing on the act of purchasing products, they want to focus on the act of using them. Thats what appears to really matter

19、. Economic outlook The retail industry should be prepared for changing economic conditions in the coming year. The economy slowed in 2019, with real GDP growth declining to 1.9 percent in Q3 from 3.1 percent in Q1.5 Personal consumption growth has been steady, on average, but investment growth has w

20、eakened. Business investment, for example, contracted in the second and third quarters of 2019, while residential investment has posted just one quarter of growth since Q1 2018. With the outlook for global growth dimming and the uncertainty of trade tariffs unlikely to go away soon, we expect real G

21、DP growth to slow to 1.6 percent this year from 2.3 percent in 2019.6 Consumer spending outlook Consumer spending is the lifeblood of the retail industry. A key source of strength to consumer spending has been a healthy labor market. Unemployment is low (3.6 percent in October) and so far, the econo

22、my has generated, on average, about 167,000 jobs per monthlower than the figure for 2018, but much higher than the estimated 75,000100,000 required due to demographic growth. With the labor market strong, consumer sentiment remains elevated despite a bit of volatility in recent months. Relatively lo

23、w headline inflation is also likely to aid consumers, even as low interest ratesthe Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2019keep borrowing costs low. Consumers, however, face three key challenges. First, gains in the labor market have not translated to strong wage growth. Real average weekly ea

24、rnings grew a mere 0.8 percent in 2018 and, by the end of 2019, were up by just 1.2 percent. Second, as the impact of the 2017 tax cuts fizzles out, disposable income is likely to slowwe forecast real disposable personal income growth to slow to 2.3 percent in 2020 from 3.24 percent in 2019. Finally

25、, consumers also face risks from any escalation of trade tensions, which, in turn, could dent growth and employment as businesses hold back on investment spending and hiring. This will likely hurt equity markets too, thereby negatively affecting consumer wealth and hence, spending. Overall, we expec

26、t real consumer spending growth to slow to 2.2 percent in 2020 from 2.5 percent in 2019. Convenience should be enabled through the entire organization Offering convenience is not an overnight undertaking. Because there are so many moving parts involved, enabling convenience touches almost every part

27、 of a retail organization, creating challenges throughout. Convenience, then, should be built into the fabric of the entire organization; otherwise, it can become a follow-on marketing gimmick without the wherewithal to make it profitable. Convenience is also a moving target; what was convenient yes

28、terday is no longer convenient today, and whats convenient today is not going to be convenient tomorrow. Marketing as a differentiator In one sense, convenience is about elevating the human experience. It is something that goes beyond the four walls of the organization and includes both customers an

29、d the workforce. In a recent study, we found that five key pillars contribute to elevating this experience:7 Being obsessed with all things human Anticipating and proactively delivering on human needs Executing with humanity Being authentic Working to change the world Marketing in this age of consta

30、nt disruption, with industry ecosystems evolving and fusing together, may seem like a Herculean task. To be successful, organizations should constantly define and redefine what matters to their customerstruly enhancing either the human experience or the convenience factor. The reality is that it is

31、no longer enough to market product and price alone. While the quality of the product is still important, the point of differentiation between brands is now often dependent on their ability to market the service, delivery, and overall convenience that they provide. Things like same-day delivery, curb

32、side pickup, and buy online/pick up in-store have become table stakes. The competitive advantage is derived from presenting these components more effectively than the competition does. 2020 retail industry outlook | Convenience as a promise 5 Transparent pricing strategies Clipping and carrying coup

33、ons has never been convenient, but consumers did so for lack of choice. With the digital solutions available today, consumers are distinguishing the options that are most convenient to them. In Deloittes recent holiday study, 74 percent of the respondents said that price discounts were the most appe

34、aling promotional offers by retailers.8 However, shoppers dont want to be standing in the store searching for a coupon on a mobile device, much less have to remember to bring a printed copy. Depending upon the business context, retailers should pick the most fitting pricing strategy to build transpa

35、rency. For example, mass merchant and grocery chains have found everyday low price (EDLP) to be most apt for their businesses. EDLP has been building a strong following as more and more consumers are weary of the fine print, high-low pricing, and other traps they inadvertently fall prey to. Paying p

36、remium in favor of more convenient options Retailers have yet to fully embrace that consumers are willing to pay a premium for convenience. Whether for the service, delivery, or as tips, premium charges are already a regular aspect of meal and grocery delivery services. These relatively new delivery

37、 services are changing the way consumers dine, shop, and get entertained today. Meal delivery services, for example, feature an easy-to-use app and provide customizable meals from a multitude of restaurants or “dark kitchens,” even delivering an appetizer from one and an entre from another. As consu

38、mers grow to expect this level of ease and individually catered service from all providers, it is the retail players who take notethe disruptors and niche players ready to attend to them who are seeing growth. Factors like new competitors, convergence, and the blending of physical and digital operat

39、ions are pushing businesses to find alternative revenue streams. In the search to create value for consumers and stakeholders while still capturing value for themselves and investors, many retailers are adopting new profit models that prioritize consumer choice and fulfill demand: subscriptions, mar

40、ketplaces, fulfillment-as-a- service, web and cloud services, and more. Figure 2. Retail models have evolved, creating a variety of profit drivers Retail profit models Private label credit card Membership or co-op model Digital/DTC Store within a store Subscription Third-party selling Payment platfo

41、rms and financial Consumer services In-house media management Logistics as a service Media and entertainment Web and cloud services Fulfillment services Internal venture funds Traditional Newer to retail Core retailing 2020 retail industry outlook | Convenience as a promise 6 In order to offer more

42、convenient products and services, todays retailers should start by understanding the consumers behavior around each available option. In the past, store layouts were used as a tool to influence shopper behavior. Big- box retailers, for example, would place perishables and groceries in the rear of th

43、e store, drawing consumers through aisles of other products before reaching them. Some could say that shoppers found this grocery path to be a convenience, allowing them to pick up other essentials despite originally making the trip for groceries. This view does not stand today. To adapt to the chan

44、ge in consumer mindset around grocery shopping, some major brands have changed their approach. Todays retailers are challenged to balance consumer convenience with in-store needs. Strategies to consider to address the gap include: Use data, but open the aperture of retailers view. By utilizing data

45、coupled with advanced analytics, retailers could expand their understanding of consumer behavior, including what shoppers are doing pre and poststore visit. This can allow the retailer to expand their view beyond the traditional competition. Understand local trends. In a recent Supermarketnews study

46、9 which polled over 1,000 US adults, 76 percent said they would be more likely to order household items locally if they could get same-day delivery, like Amazon offers in many areas. This implies that a hyper-emphasis on local delivery could be the key to winning at the convenience game. Be cognizan

47、t of data privacy. Retailers should approach their data strategy cautiously. Many companies are looking into data monetization efforts as a new revenue stream, but digitally savvy consumers have a strong understanding of what personal data is collected and potentially shared, are wary of too many or

48、 unwelcomed targeted offers. Connect: Digital enablement On Singles Day (November 11) in 2019, Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba set a new sales record of $38.4 billion in gross merchandise volume in just 24 hours. Whats more astounding is that that over 90 percent of sales were enabled through smart

49、phones. While that rate of engagement is unheard of in the US, smartphone use was predicted to hit an all-time high of 34 percent for Cyber Monday sales in 2019,10 and the smartphone as an e-commerce engine is only going to grow. Deloittes 2019 holiday study also revealed that mobile has become the platform for holiday shopping, with 70 percent of mobile shoppers having planned to use a smartphone to make a purchase. Payment gateways,