世界經濟論壇：2020年零增長挑戰：采取快速果斷的氣候行動 （英文版）（41頁）.pdf

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1、Insight Report The Net-Zero Challenge: Fast-Forward to Decisive Climate Action January 2020 In collaboration with Boston Consulting Group World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 Email: contactweforum.org www.we

2、forum.org 2020 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. 3The Net-Zero Challenge: Fast-Forward to Decisive Climate Acti

3、on Foreword Executive summary 1. The world needs to get to net zero, yet emissions continue to rise 2. Companies and investors should accelerate individual action in their own interest 3. Ecosystem actions can help overcome barriers to transform 4. A call for unilateral government regulation 5. Indi

4、viduals need to lead the change as consumers, voters and leaders 6. The way forward: An action plan for all stakeholders Methodology Contributors References Endnotes 4 5 6 12 20 23 28 29 31 32 34 35 Contents 4The Net-Zero Challenge: Fast-Forward to Decisive Climate Action Foreword Four years after w

5、orld leaders met in Paris to agree on the historic Paris Climate Agreement, it is time to take an honest look at the progress on global climate action to date. This World Economic Forum and Boston Consulting Group report examines what corporations, governments and civil society have achieved since t

6、he accord was drafted in 2015 and assesses the current state of global climate action. This full report, The Net-Zero Challenge: Fast-Forward to Decisive Climate Action, follows “The Net-Zero Challenge: Global Climate Action at a Crossroads” Briefing Paper published in December 2019. The findings fo

7、r this report are based on quantitative and qualitative assessments of governments, corporations, investors and societies. We conducted interviews with 13 climate experts and 24 CEOs and executives of leading companies across all sectors from energy and industrial firms with high direct emissions, t

8、o technology, service and consumer businesses with significant influence over the emissions of their supply chains and products. We analysed corporate data from CDP, a non-governmental organization that collates voluntary emissions disclosures from nearly 7,000 large companies, monitors global emiss

9、ions and assesses policy frameworks from governments. Our analysis was supplemented with additional research from the Energy Transitions Commission (Mission Possible), International Energy Agency, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, United Nations Environment Programme, Climate Action Tracker

10、 and World Resources Institute, as well as previous work by Boston Consulting Group. At this years World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters, climate change is high on the agenda. The year 2020 marks the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, and there are high expectations that the 2

11、6th UN Conference of the Parties (COP26) in 2020 will deliver a meaningful international response to the climate crisis. With this crucial milestone ahead, we have an opportunity to build a strong, unified call for accelerated action among business and government leaders. We must turn the trajectory

12、 of greenhouse gas emissions around to ensure that global warming stays within safe limits. While the risks of inaction are mounting, it is still possible to prevent the worst effects of global warming. The costs of abatement are falling and the technological solutions needed to decarbonize our econ

13、omies are available. It is within everyones power and responsibility to act. This report aims to help clarify the path ahead and encourage the decisive acceleration of climate action. Foreword Patrick Herhold Managing Director and Partner, Centre for Climate Action, Boston Consulting Group Emily Far

14、nworth Head of Climate Change Initiatives, World Economic Forum 5The Net-Zero Challenge: Fast-Forward to Decisive Climate Action Executive summary Ecosystem actions can overcome barriers, through collaborations along value chains or with industry peers. It will take a joint effort to overcome existi

15、ng transformation barriers in sectors where decarbonization costs are too high for individual companies to bear alone. Through cooperation in coalitions, companies can share the risks of technology development and coordinate related investments in the development of low- carbon solutions. They can g

16、enerate a demand signal through joint commitments or standards, and set up self-regulating bodies in areas where government policies fall short. Investor action can enable transparency and support long- term decarbonization plans. Investors can coordinate to define and apply standards for disclosure

17、 and reporting. Such efforts can encourage companies to address their climate-related risks. Even more importantly, investors can increase scrutiny on long-term climate risks and opportunities, and encourage asset managers to set long-term targets and strategies towards net- zero emissions. Governme

18、nts can unilaterally enact national regulation to reduce emissions immediately. Many countries can benefit economically from carbon abatement investments. To deliver on the net-zero ambition, they would need to enact ambitious policy frameworks that include a meaningful price on greenhouse gas emiss

19、ions. However, while carbon pricing is regarded as an effective and necessary lever, it is unlikely to be sufficient. For one thing, abatement costs differ widely across sectors, which implies that carbon prices incentivize some sectors to move earlier than others while practically all sectors would

20、 need to start abating today. Alongside carbon pricing, sector-specific regulations and incentives would promote remedies such as a switch from fossil fuels to renewable energies, electric mobility, efficiency, green building standards supported by accelerated innovation. As long as the world as a w

21、hole is moving slowly, national efforts will also require measures to protect emission- intensive industries from high-carbon, low-cost competition, through mechanisms like cross-border carbon taxes and low- carbon product standards. Individuals need to drive climate action in their roles as consume

22、rs, voters, leaders and activists. The transition to a net-zero economy will be a transformational shift for all of society. Individuals have to take the lead in inciting governments, businesses and every part of society to move. The world is at a crossroads: We must fast-forward to decisive and coh

23、esive action. The coming decade will determine whether humanity retains a fighting chance to limit warming to 1.5C or even 2C. The later action is taken, the more dire our position will become. The technologies for a low-carbon transformation are largely available, the barriers to action are vastly

24、overstated and the consequences of inaction are well known. Climate action is still too often perceived as a cost or a trade-off with other priorities. In light of the facts, it should be viewed as an opportunity for businesses, countries and individuals to create an advantage in building a better,

25、more sustainable world. In 2015, world leaders met in Paris and agreed to limit a global temperature rise by the end of the century to well below 2C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5C. In the past decade, however, emissions have continued to increase at a ra

26、te of 1.5% per annum. A reduction of approximately 3-6% per annum between now and 2030 is needed to limit global warming to 1.5-2C.1 Progress on climate action to date has been limited. On the government side, while 121 countries have now committed to be carbon neutral by 2050,2 they account for les

27、s than 25% of emissions. None of these countries are among the top five emitters, and few, in spite of the commitment, have enacted policies that are robust enough to produce the desired effects. On the corporate side, only a minority of companies fully disclose their emissions. Even fewer have emis

28、sions targets or are in the process of making reductions in line with the Paris Agreement trajectory.3 And while investors have begun to recognize the importance of assessing climate-related risks, liabilities and opportunities, much of their day-to-day decision- making continues to be dominated by

29、an emphasis on short- term performance. In light of this global inertia, public pressure and global activism have surged in recent years, especially among the youth and in Western countries. However, public education on the threat of climate change and related climate action is still insufficient to

30、 make this a global phenomenon. Since progress in international negotiations is disappointing, corporations and governments need to move unilaterally. The world needs cohesive and swift global policy action and progress is urgently needed at the Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters and the COP26 this ye

31、ar. But with the slow pace of international climate negotiations to date and the complex political context, the reality is that a global consensus will very likely not be established soon enough to counter the crisis. Individual governments and corporations can and should move ahead with unilateral

32、initiatives; it is about realizing savings from efficiency improvements, managing risks, pursuing new opportunities and maintaining the long- term licence to operate. While no single actor can halt global warming alone, efforts by leading industrial nations or large corporations can have a multiplie

33、r effect. Corporations can accelerate individual action and commit to meaningful short- and long-term reductions. Companies in all sectors can do much more to reduce the emission intensity of their business and supply chains through measures that cost them little or nothing, and can offset residual

34、emissions. All should actively monitor and manage their climate-related risks and increase their efforts to achieve a 1.5-2C world (for example, with internal carbon pricing), anticipating a future with more stringent policies and greater societal mobilization. Most can develop new business models t

35、hat contribute to achieving a low- carbon economy and capitalize on the new value pools for “green” products and services. 6The Net-Zero Challenge: Fast-Forward to Decisive Climate Action The UN Environment Programmes Emissions Gap Report 2019 found that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, includ

36、ing from land-use changes such as deforestation, hit a new high of 55.3 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 equivalent in 2018.4 Despite commitments from individual governments and companies over the past decade, emissions have risen by 1.5% per year. Should this pattern continue, the world is projected to warm

37、by 3C to 5C by 2100, with catastrophic effects on human civilization. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), limiting global warming to 1.5C requires net human- caused carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to fall by 45% by 2030 and to reach net zero by 20505 (see Figure 1). Eve

38、n limiting the temperature rise to 2C will require CO2 emissions to fall by 25% by 2030, requiring a turnaround of the present trend. 2C compatible path3 1.5C compatible path4 Current trajectory1 Paris pledges2 Gt per year Global net CO2 emissions pathways 40 0 -20 2010202020502100 Globally, emissio

39、ns are stagnating or rising in all major economic sectors. Based on todays policies, this dynamic is not forecast to change over the next 10 to 20 years (see Figure 2). For example: 1. Demand for energy continues to increase and hydrocarbons are meeting much of the demand. Global energy demand rose

40、by 2.3% in 2018 and is expected to continue to grow by more than 25% between now and 2040.6 A large part of the energy consumption is coming from emerging economies that are investing in carbon- heavy projects to boost economic growth. 2. Volume growth in emission-intensive industry sectors is proje

41、cted to continue, for example in cement (growth of 30% by 2040) and steel (growth of 10-15% by 2040). These sectors have few low-carbon alternatives, and those that exist are costly. The demand for plastics, another high-emission industry with limited economically viable low-carbon production altern

42、atives, could increase by up to 150% by mid-century.7 3. Hard-to-abate transportation sectors are also still growing considerably. By 2050, freight demand is expected to triple, and demand in aviation will likely more than double.8 1. Assumes CO2 emissions grow from 2018 to 2050 at the same rate as

43、the Current Policies Scenario in UNEPs Emissions Gap Report 2019 (1.1% compound annual growth rate); 2. Assumes countries decarbonize beyond the same annual rate that was required to achieve their INDCs between 2020 and 2030; 3. Assumes a 25% reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2070; 4. Assumes a 45%

44、reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2050. Note: Other GHG emissions are also to be reduced by more than 50% in pathways limiting global warming to 1.5C. Sources: IPCC; UNEP, Emissions Gap Report 2019; BCG analysis 1. The world needs to get to net zero, yet emissions continue to rise Figure 1: The worl

45、d needs to move to “net zero”, 2010-2100 7The Net-Zero Challenge: Fast-Forward to Decisive Climate Action SteelAviation ! 5 ! 1 CementHeavy Road Industry Emissions trajectories (Gt CO2e from 2015 to 2050) Illustrative sectors Transport Illustrative sectors 5 10 15 Power2 Current trajectory1Below 2Cp

46、ath 201520302050 1 3 5 201520302050 1 3 5 201520302050 Buildings3 201520302050 1 5 3 201520302050 1 5 3 201520302050 1 5 3 % Global emissions Net zero commitment No target 121 countries are now aiming to be carbon neutral, but these account for less than 25% of emissions 40 million tonnes and those

47、with emissions 75 million tonnes with a net-zero ambition are represented graphically by a flag. Sources: Emissions data from CAIT (from the World Resources Institute) and Eurostat; Policy analysis by BCG, referencing the IMF, Climate Action tracker and government websites; BCG analysis Figure 4: On

48、ly a few countries have a roadmap and robust policies to deliver net-zero ambition Ambition1Sector roadmaps2Policy framework3 Countries: 121 Emissions: 25% 15 6% 7 250m tonne and 80% reduction in GHG emissions produced Carved a niche in high-end sports car market before securing the backing and scal

49、e to roll out production to mass market vehicles (now has a 27% share of new US small-medium luxury car sales) Selling even in geographies where regulatory support and charging infrastructure are limited $60bn market cap Created an Indian waste collection company that treats waste anaerobically producing methane and an organic slurry - methane is compressed and used as a liquefied petroleum gas substitute and the slurry is used to replace fertilizer 45 megatonne CO2e saving per year by 2030 Created a rooftop solar system to replace kerosene lamps Selling to customers