世界經濟論壇：2020年未來的市場：通往新經濟的道路 （英文版）（32頁）.pdf

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1、Markets of Tomorrow: Pathways to a New Economy I N S I G H T R E P O R T O C T O B E R 2 0 2 0 Contents 1. Executive summary 2. Pathways to a new global economy 3. Identifying the markets of tomorrow 3.1 The new markets that can drive tomorrows economic transformation 3.2 Target conditions for estab

2、lishing the markets of tomorrow 3.3 How transformation occurs 4. Building the markets of tomorrow 4.1 Country-level public-private action: A foresight approach 4.2 Selecting the markets of tomorrow 4.3 Leveraging available indicators 4.4 Cross-industry action for the markets of tomorrow 5. Conclusio

3、ns and next steps Contributors References Endnotes 3 5 6 6 11 15 16 16 16 21 23 24 26 28 29 Cover: Unsplash/H Heyerlein 2020 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or b

4、y any information storage and retrieval system. Markets of Tomorrow: Pathways to a New Economy2 1 Markets of Tomorrow: Pathways to a New Economy OCTOBER 2020 Markets of Tomorrow: Pathways to a New Economy3 Recovery from the economic downturn attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic calls for an inclusive

5、 and sustainable economic transformation capable of economic growth that is conducive to the broader societal and environmental objectives to be achieved over the coming decade. The impact of the pandemic has exacerbated the social crises prevalent in many parts of the world before its onset and cre

6、ated new ones to the extent that the risk today is not only to see decades of progress in fighting poverty around the world obliterated, but also public and private leadership retracting on commitments and actions taken to protect the environment at a time when the very opposite is needed: economic

7、transformation that can provide economic growth while meeting the needs of society and the environment. Building the “markets of tomorrow” to achieve such economic transformation requires a creative combination of breakthrough technological and socio-institutional innovation. Economic value is produ

8、ced by means of the technological capabilities available and organized and distributed through the formal and informal institutions that have been developed to structure behaviour: from public policies and procedures to habits and norms, shared beliefs and perceptions. Each market of tomorrow is a s

9、ubset of the broader technological and socio-institutional systems most closely linked to the exchange of a specific good, service or asset. Conceptually, a new market builds on and replaces previous ones and can become a piece of a new paradigm, driving economic transformation. The goal of such inn

10、ovation would be to produce not only more or better, but to transform economies by establishing new technological and institutional systems to resolve the most pressing societal issues. Twenty markets of tomorrow are considered promising in that they could support inclusive and sustainable revival o

11、f growth. The establishment of some will rely on advances in breakthrough technological innovation (e.g. broad-spectrum antivirals, space flights), others will require radically new social and institutional structures (e.g. skills capital, water rights and quality credits), others still a combinatio

12、n of both (e.g. data, genes and DNA sequences). Each of these markets could offer potential benefits across multiple dimensions, for example, by helping to increase well-being and empower people (e.g. precision medicines and orphan drugs, EdTech and reskilling services), advance human knowledge and

13、understanding (e.g. artificial intelligence, satellite services) and protect the environment (e.g. electric vehicles, hydrogen). Some of them have a global (e.g. greenhouse gas allowances) and others might have a stronger national (e.g. skills capital) or local component (e.g. water rights and quali

14、ty credits). Each of the markets of tomorrow requires seven key conditions to develop to maturity: A new product must be invented that can be sustainably produced (invention) A set of companies is able and willing to produce and market it (production) Product demand is sufficient to sustain a commer

15、cially viable market (demand) A set of market standards for the new product has emerged among actors in the ecosystem (standards) Society is aligned on how to value the new product (value) The legal frameworks allow to identify, hold and exchange the new product (codification) The necessary infrastr

16、ucture (physical, digital, intangible) to exchange, distribute and store the new product needs to be in place (infrastructure). The markets of tomorrow may be supported by government incentives, private investment and public-private collaboration. Coalitions at the country and global levels can toge

17、ther pursue the establishment of these conditions. The creation of new markets can occur only when sufficient public and private stakeholders join forces, together with civil society and research institutions. The existing landscape influences the possibility for these actors to succeed. It includes

18、 all the elements that are structural or the result of long-term processes and cannot be easily influenced by the actors that pursue the creation of a new market. These elements can suddenly or slowly change over time, and this can play a key role in allowing new niches to emerge and replace establi

19、shed paradigms. Executive summary Markets of Tomorrow: Pathways to a New Economy4 The COVID-19 disruption represents a unique opportunity to pilot breakthrough technological and socio-institutional innovations that have the potential to grow into entire new markets. Countries in which actors will be

20、 able to mobilize and coordinate, and where market concentration in industries adjacent to the new markets is not too high those that can either participate or otherwise be affected by them are likely to benefit the most. For optimal societal outcomes, the markets of tomorrow should be designed arou

21、nd fair and sustainable ways of producing and distributing value, for example through tighter collaboration between the public and private sectors and innovative models of financing research and development, managing intellectual property and designing the public sectors risk-taking into the new ven

22、tures. Especially at the country-level, public institutions have a key role to play in catalysing public-private collaboration and creating the systemic conditions for selected markets to emerge. Preliminary mapping of country readiness reveals that countries with advanced technological capabilities

23、, strong social capital and public institutions that shape future- oriented visions are likely to be better placed to successfully create a broader range of markets for economic transformation. However, global coordination and cross- industry collaboration may be needed to realize the markets of tom

24、orrow. Global coordination where the business community is increasingly asked to play a more proactive role thanks to the nature of their activities and value chains should reinforce country-level action and remains indispensable for the successful creation of many of the markets of tomorrow, partic

25、ularly those with a global scope. Cross-industry coalitions can pool the know-how of multiple innovation chains and focus on creating specific conditions for some of the markets of tomorrow. 2 Markets of Tomorrow: Pathways to a New Economy5 The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered one of the deepest syst

26、emic economic shocks of the past 150 years. Economic activity plummeted in the first and second quarters of 2020 as the virus spread globally, causing wide-scale business closures and layoffs, only partially offset by generous rescue packages provided by governments. The global economy fragmented as

27、 global trade and the movement of people across borders were heavily restricted, accelerating the restructuring of global value chains in light of national strategic considerations governing the production of goods and services of fundamental importance to economies and societies. Financial markets

28、have been hit with the deepest turmoil since the Great Depression, requiring monetary interventions on a scale that has dwarfed those in the 2008-2009 financial crisis. During the crisis, governments enacted stringent measures to contain the spread of the virus, prioritizing public health over busin

29、ess and economic activities. To protect people and livelihoods, governments that could afford it extended safety nets and other means of direct intervention in the economy to safeguard jobs, businesses and segments of strategic or systemic importance. Recovery presents a multitude of pressing challe

30、nges and the outlook for economic revival is uncertain. Concerns have arisen about the sustainability of rising government debt levels and their distributional implications in the long term. Uncertainties remain about potential new waves of virus contagion and the availability of a treatment or vacc

31、ine in the near future. While some consumption patterns have quickly reset, others may have changed for the longer term, with a permanent shift towards e-commerce and digital services. Production and business activities are being reorganized and global companies are looking closely at the costs and

32、benefits of parallel supply chains to strengthen their resilience. As calls for a more inclusive and sustainable economic revival grow, policy-makers are exploring how to proactively incentivize a new global economy that respects planetary boundaries, generates less inequality, empowers people, and

33、advances access and progress of knowledge. What would it take to shape the quality and direction of future growth, and lay the foundations of a new economy? The functioning of economies is the result of the technologies at work in societies and their established “social code”,1 the formal and inform

34、al institutions that determine the way people behave, interact and organize in a community. Economic transformation requires a transition from one set of technologies and institutions to another.2 Such transition is driven by the creation of new markets that combine technological and socio-instituti

35、onal innovation to generate new sources of value adapted to societal objectives. Pathways to a new global economy 3 Markets of Tomorrow: Pathways to a New Economy6 In their simplest formulation, markets are “situations in which some good or service is sold to customers for a price that is paid in mo

36、ney”.3 A growing number of scholars, many of whom work outside the sphere of economics or at the intersection with other social sciences, emphasize the phenomenon of market creation. Creating a new market involves a mix of technological and socio-institutional innovation that affect socio-economic s

37、ystems. This briefing paper builds on some of the literature on socio-technical systems4 and looks at market creation as a source of transition or evolution from one economic system to another. The markets of tomorrow represent niches of technological and socio-institutional innovation within the cu

38、rrent economic systems that enable the creation and exchange of new products and assets. Such markets are not yet mature but are considered to have the potential to significantly reshape the established paradigms of economies and societies and contribute to economic growth and transformation towards

39、 more sustainability and inclusion. Based on a mapping of the current and emerging efforts and experiments taking place around the world, this briefing paper aims to identify these new markets on the basis of their potential, not only to trigger growth but also to contribute to a broader economic tr

40、ansformation from the current technological and socio-institutional system to one that can provide economic growth and is directed towards clear societal and environmental objectives. Identifying the markets of tomorrow The new markets that can drive tomorrows economic transformation 3.1 This paper

41、proposes an initial list of 20 key markets of tomorrow, which fall into three main categories: 1. Safeguarding planetary boundaries 2. Empowering and protecting people 3. Advancing knowledge At the core of each market is one specific product (good or service) or asset that, to be more effectively ex

42、changed, would require a radically new set of technological and institutional innovations. The importance of these products and assets is considered to be such that, once a new market is established for them, they are likely to trigger a paradigm shift for economies and societies. Safeguarding plane

43、tary boundaries Electric vehicles Greenhouse gas allowances Hydrogen Plastics recycling Reforestation services Water rights and quality credits Empowering and protecting people Broad-spectrum antivirals Care Data Digital financial services EdTech and reskilling services Hyperloop-based transport ser

44、vices New antibiotics Precision medicine and orphan dugs Skills capital Unemployment insurance Advancing knowledge Artificial intelligence Genes and commercial platforms of AI-as-a-service, where AI is sold according to the specific tasks it can perform or, in some cases, in the form of fully- fledg

45、ed machine-learning frameworks and services, thus blurring into “application markets”. Broad-spectrum antivirals. Whereas antibiotics developed in the past were and are effective against a broad spectrum of bacteria, the antivirals currently available were developed and tested with one specific viru

46、s in mind. Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a number of antivirals, initially developed to fight previous viruses, have been tested to block SARS-CoV-2. Some have shown a certain degree of success but effective treatment for COVID-19 or a drug that could be relied upon in case of future

47、viral pandemics are still lacking, underscoring the importance of the ongoing efforts to develop broad-spectrum antivirals. Some experts caution about the potential unintended consequences of such treatments, which in the case of broad-spectrum antibiotics became evident only after a few decades. Th

48、ose working on the development of broad-spectrum antivirals recognize that targeted vaccines remain the preferred option in the long-term, but stress the value of having broad antivirals available as additional methods to fight new viruses when a vaccine is not yet available. Care. A broad set of ca

49、re services caters to various family needs: for children, the elderly, the sick, for pets, housework etc. How these markets are organized varies, depending on the extent to which such services are provided by formal market activities (i.e. sold in exchange for money) or informally by relatives or friends. Creating a fair market for these services is a challenge to all societies and meeting it could have significant positive implications in terms of economic growth, and equality and inclusion, p