2020人工智能與國家安全報告 - 美國國會（英文版）（43頁）.pdf

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1、 Artificial Intelligence and National Security Updated August 26, 2020 Congressional Research Service https:/crsreports.congress.gov R45178 Artificial Intelligence and National Security Congressional Research Service Summary Artificial intelligence (AI) is a rapidly growing field of technology with

2、potentially significant implications for national security. As such, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) and other nations are developing AI applications for a range of military functions. AI research is underway in the fields of intelligence collection and analysis, logistics, cyber operations, in

3、formation operations, command and control, and in a variety of semiautonomous and autonomous vehicles. Already, AI has been incorporated into military operations in Iraq and Syria. Congressional action has the potential to shape the technologys development further, with budgetary and legislative dec

4、isions influencing the growth of military applications as well as the pace of their adoption. AI technologies present unique challenges for military integration, particularly because the bulk of AI development is happening in the commercial sector. Although AI is not unique in this regard, the defen

5、se acquisition process may need to be adapted for acquiring emerging technologies like AI. In addition, many commercial AI applications must undergo significant modification prior to being functional for the military. A number of cultural issues also challenge AI acquisition, as some commercial AI c

6、ompanies are averse to partnering with DOD due to ethical concerns, and even within the department, there can be resistance to incorporating AI technology into existing weapons systems and processes. Potential international rivals in the AI market are creating pressure for the United States to compe

7、te for innovative military AI applications. China is a leading competitor in this regard, releasing a plan in 2017 to capture the global lead in AI development by 2030. Currently, China is primarily focused on using AI to make faster and more well-informed decisions, as well as on developing a varie

8、ty of autonomous military vehicles. Russia is also active in military AI development, with a primary focus on robotics. Although AI has the potential to impart a number of advantages in the military context, it may also introduce distinct challenges. AI technology could, for example, facilitate auto

9、nomous operations, lead to more informed military decisionmaking, and increase the speed and scale of military action. However, it may also be unpredictable or vulnerable to unique forms of manipulation. As a result of these factors, analysts hold a broad range of opinions on how influential AI will

10、 be in future combat operations. While a small number of analysts believe that the technology will have minimal impact, most believe that AI will have at least an evolutionaryif not revolutionaryeffect. Military AI development presents a number of potential issues for Congress: What is the right bal

11、ance of commercial and government funding for AI development? How might Congress influence defense acquisition reform initiatives that facilitate military AI development? What changes, if any, are necessary in Congress and DOD to implement effective oversight of AI development? How should the United

12、 States balance research and development related to artificial intelligence and autonomous systems with ethical considerations? What legislative or regulatory changes are necessary for the integration of military AI applications? What measures can Congress take to help manage the AI competition glob

13、ally? Artificial Intelligence and National Security Congressional Research Service Contents Introduction . 1 AI Terminology and Background . 1 Issues for Congress . 5 AI Applications for Defense . 9 Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance . 10 Logistics . 10 Cyberspace Operations . 11 Informa

14、tion Operations and “Deep Fakes” . 11 Command and Control . 12 Semiautonomous and Autonomous Vehicles . 13 Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) . 14 Military AI Integration Challenges . 15 Technology . 16 Process . 16 Personnel . 18 Culture . 19 International Competitors . 20 China . 20 Russia .

15、24 International Institutions . 26 AI Opportunities and Challenges . 27 Autonomy . 27 Speed and Endurance . 28 Scaling . 28 Information Superiority . 29 Predictability . 29 Explainability . 32 Exploitation . 34 AIs Potential Impact on Combat . 35 Minimal Impact on Combat . 35 Evolutionary Impact on

16、Combat . 36 Revolutionary Impact on Combat . 37 Figures Figure 1. Relationships of Selected AI Definitions . 4 Figure 2. Chinese Investment in U.S. AI Companies, 2010-2017 . 22 Figure 3. Value of Autonomy to DOD Missions . 28 Figure 4. AI and Image Classifying Errors . 30 Figure 5. AI and Context .

17、31 Figure 6. Adversarial Images . 34 Artificial Intelligence and National Security Congressional Research Service Tables Table 1. Taxonomy of Historical AI Definitions . 3 Contacts Author Information . 39 Acknowledgments . 39 Artificial Intelligence and National Security Congressional Research Servi

18、ce 1 Introduction1 Artificial intelligence (AI) is a rapidly growing field of technology that is capturing the attention of commercial investors, defense intellectuals, policymakers, and international competitors alike, as evidenced by a number of recent initiatives. On July 20, 2017, the Chinese go

19、vernment released a strategy detailing its plan to take the lead in AI by 2030. Less than two months later Vladimir Putin publicly announced Russias intent to pursue AI technologies, stating, “Whoever becomes the leader in this field will rule the world.”2 Similarly, the U.S. National Defense Strate

20、gy, released in January 2018, identified artificial intelligence as one of the key technologies that will “ensure the United States will be able to fight and win the wars of the future.”3 The U.S. military is already integrating AI systems into combat via a spearhead initiative called Project Maven,

21、 which uses AI algorithms to identify insurgent targets in Iraq and Syria.4 These dynamics raise several questions that Congress addressed in hearings during 2017, 2018, and 2019: What types of military AI applications are possible, and what limits, if any, should be imposed? What unique advantages

22、and vulnerabilities come with employing AI for defense? How will AI change warfare, and what influence will it have on the military balance with U.S. competitors? Congress has a number of oversight, budgetary, and legislative tools available that it may use to influence the answers to these question

23、s and shape the future development of AI technology. AI Terminology and Background5 Almost all academic studies in artificial intelligence acknowledge that no commonly accepted definition of AI exists, in part because of the diverse approaches to research in the field. Likewise, although Section 238

24、 of the FY2019 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) directs the Secretary of Defense to produce a definition of artificial intelligence by August 13, 2019, no official U.S. government definition of AI yet exists.6 The FY2019 NDAA does, however, provide a definition of AI for the purposes of Sec

25、tion 238: 1. Any artificial system that performs tasks under varying and unpredictable circumstances without significant human oversight, or that can learn from experience and improve performance when exposed to data sets. 2. An artificial system developed in computer software, physical hardware, or

26、 other context that solves tasks requiring human-like perception, cognition, planning, learning, communication, or physical action. 1 This report was originally written by Daniel S. Hoadley, U.S. Air Force Fellow. It has been updated by Kelley M. Sayler, Analyst in Advanced Technology and Global Sec

27、urity. 2 China State Council, “A Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan,” July 20, 2017, translated by New America, https:/www.newamerica.org/documents/1959/translation-fulltext-8.1.17.pdf, and Tom Simonite, “For Superpowers, Artificial Intelligence Fuels New Global Arms Race,” Wir

28、ed, August 8, 2017, story/for-superpowers-artificial-intelligence-fuels-new-global-arms-race. 3 Department of Defense, Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, p.3, https:/dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/ Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf. 4 Marcus Weisgerber, “The Pentagons

29、New Algorithmic Warfare Cell Gets Its First Mission: Hunt ISIS,” Defense One, May 14, 2017, first-mission-hunt-isis/137833/. 5 For a general overview of AI, see CRS In Focus IF10608, Overview of Artificial Intelligence, by Laurie A. Harris. 6 P.L. 115-232, Section 2, Division A, Title II, 238. Artif

30、icial Intelligence and National Security Congressional Research Service 2 3. An artificial system designed to think or act like a human, including cognitive architectures and neural networks. 4. A set of techniques, including machine learning that is designed to approximate a cognitive task. 5. An a

31、rtificial system designed to act rationally, including an intelligent software agent or embodied robot that achieves goals using perception, planning, reasoning, learning, communicating, decision-making, and acting.7 This definition encompasses many of the descriptions in Table 1 below, which summar

32、izes various AI definitions in academic literature. The field of AI research began in the 1940s, but an explosion of interest in AI began around 2010 due to the convergence of three enabling developments: (1) the availability of “big data” sources, (2) improvements to machine learning approaches, an

33、d (3) increases in computer processing power.8 This growth has advanced the state of Narrow AI, which refers to algorithms that address specific problem sets like game playing, image recognition, and navigation. All current AI systems fall into the Narrow AI category. The most prevalent approach to

34、Narrow AI is machine learning, which involves statistical algorithms that replicate human cognitive tasks by deriving their own procedures through analysis of large training data sets. During the training process, the computer system creates its own statistical model to accomplish the specified task

35、 in situations it has not previously encountered. Experts generally agree that it will be many decades before the field advances to develop General AI, which refers to systems capable of human-level intelligence across a broad range of tasks.9 Nevertheless, the rapid advancements in Narrow AI have sparked a wave of investment, with U.S. venture capitalists investing an estimated $