GSMA：2021年全球移動趨勢（英文）（68頁）.pdf

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1、GSMAiDecember 2020 Global Mobile Trends 2021 Navigating Covid-19 and beyond Copyright 2020 GSM Association The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with nearly 400 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers,

2、software companies, equipment providers and internet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences. For more infor

3、mation, please visit the GSMA corporate website at Follow the GSMA on Twitter: GSMA GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO

4、in every country worldwide from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and

5、third-party industry players, to support strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports acr

6、oss a range of industry topics. 3 GLOBAL MOBILE TRENDS Telecoms in the global macro context Covid-19 emerges into an already uncertain world Growth beyond connectivity 5G outlook Network transformation IoT and enterprise verticals The digital consumer The next billion Regional outlook 4Telecoms in t

7、he global macro context Source GSMA Intelligence, ourworldindata.org Second spikes in the US and Europe have driven Covid-19 to a case count that is 160 the February toll Counts indexed to values in February 2020 The arrival of a global pandemic could hardly have been a more inauspicious welcome to

8、the new decade. Since the original outbreak and early infection figures from Wuhan in January, the outbreak has shifted west and then south to register a total of 63 million infections (as of the end of November), equivalent to 1 in every 100 people worldwide, and nearly 1.5 million deaths. Aside fr

9、om the obvious public health crisis, Covid-19 has induced drastic economic restrictions across the world. The IMF forecasts global GDP will drop 4.4% in real terms in 2020, although the rate will be worse in many countries, with far-reaching consequences for unemployment. There is, at last, some lig

10、ht at the end of the tunnel following read-outs from multiple vaccine trials. Pending distribution (itself a monumental challenge, particularly in developing countries with less mature health systems), a slow recovery should begin to take hold in mid-2021, though with still unknown and potentially l

11、ong-lasting impacts on how people socialise and work. A shock to the world at large Positive casesDeaths 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 Oct-20Sep-20Aug-20Jul-20Jun-20May-20Apr-20Mar-20Feb-20 Figures for cases and deaths are per month worldwide and expressed relative to their respective valu

12、es for February 2020. 5Telecoms in the global macro context Source GSMA Intelligence, IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2020) Aggregate change in 2020 versus pre-pandemic levels in 2019 Five worst-hit countries* Because of its consumer-facing nature, the telecoms sector behaves cyclically relative

13、 to the economy. Precedents most recently the 2008 financial crash suggest that the impact compared to that on GDP in a recession is less severe and lags by 36 months. A lot, however, has changed since 2008, when the iPhone had barely arrived and 4G did not exist. Smartphones are now ubiquitous, LTE

14、 is widespread (or on the rise in emerging markets) and businesses are undertaking digital transformation, powered by cloud capacity and low-latency networking (including 5G). In short, mobile and fixed networks are more in demand than they used to be. Among the five most affected countries (in term

15、s of deaths), the hit on mobile revenue has been about half that on GDP in high-income countries (the US and UK are shown in the chart). This is worse than tech and internet groups such as Google and Facebook but far better than retail, travel and hospitality. The same relationship is not true in ma

16、ny developing countries, where the absence of fixed line infrastructure makes mobile the default often only means of accessing the internet. Combined with ongoing 4G adoption, this means mobile revenue growth has outperformed the economy by a much wider margin. Telecoms takes a hit but the impact is

17、 less severe than on the broader economy Real GDPMobile revenues -2.5% -5.4% 2.0% 0.6% 17.6% IndiaMexicoBrazilUKUS -4.3% -9.8% -5.8% -9.0% -10.3% *Ranked by deaths from Covid-19 as of 30 September. Revenues = 9 months to September versus same period of 2019. GDP = forecasts for 2020 versus 2019. 6Te

18、lecoms in the global macro context Source GSMA Intelligence, AT Marriot and IAG (owner of British Airways) have lost around 80% of their value. Telecoms is down by a quarter but is relatively resilient, underscoring the value of reliable connectivity. As a cyclical sector, it will recover in line wi

19、th the wider economy in 2021. Longer term prospects depend on a renewed growth story from 5G, particularly in enterprise, which will take time to judge. Source Yahoo Finance, GSMA Intelligence Share price change since the beginning of 2020 Indexed 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 NovOctSepAugJulJunM

20、ayAprMarFebJan +628% Zoom Full path not shown due to scale +56% Netfl ix +55%Apple +29%Google -14%Disney -28%Telecoms sector (FTSE all world index) -31%Marriott Hotels -75%Carnival Cruise Lines -82%IAG Figures are expressed relative to share price on 2 January 2020. 9 GLOBAL MOBILE TRENDS Growth bey

21、ond connectivity Progress so far foroperators Telecoms in the global macro context 5G outlook Network transformation IoT and enterprise verticals The digital consumer The next billion Regional outlook 10Growth beyond connectivity Source company figures and GSMA Intelligence China Mobile Amrica Mvil

22、China Unicom Telenor China Telecom Verizon Telstra Telefnica Singtel NTT Docomo KDDI Turkcell SK Telecom KT Softbank AT it has re-engineered itself into a digital telco. Its overall performance now almost directly tracks its success in digital services. Scale remains the challenge to moving the need

23、le on overall growth Data is for 2019 Trying to shift the growth drivers 12Growth beyond connectivity Source company figures and GSMA Intelligence Revenue beyond core (yoy growth) Revenue beyond core (as % of total revenue) AT it spent $150 billion acquiring DirecTV (2015) and Time Warner (2018). Op

24、erators in Japan and South Korea lead on diversification, targeting the digital consumer through a range of lifestyle and financial services. China leads on growth, driven by IoT and B2B solutions, and backed by the governments ambition to make China a leading country in high-tech industries. Turkce

25、ll is a benchmark (with strong diversification and high growth). It provides one of the broadest portfolios of digital services. Theres no one size fits all approach to growing revenue beyond core services 2019 data. Bubble size reflects 2019 revenue beyond core. Scale versus growth 13Growth beyond

26、connectivity Source GSMA Intelligence Operators in Focus Survey Mining Agriculture Oil and gas Healthcare Retail Financial services Manufacturing56% 31% 27% 22% 14% 14% 7% Which sectors do telecoms operators see as the largest revenue drivers for services beyond connectivity over the next five years

27、? B2B is the incremental opportunity in the 5G era considering the raft of digital transformation projects under way in a number of industries. However, this is a highly competitive arena, with cloud majors (AWS, Microsoft and Google), SaaS providers and IT consultancies such as Accenture all in the

28、 game. IoT was the first attempt to drive vertical-focused strategies. 5G will likely lead to a step-change in how operators approach verticals. The almost $1 trillion in 5G network investment expected globally to 2025 adds further pressure to find new B2B revenue opportunities. Operators around the

29、 world see manufacturing as the largest B2B revenue opportunity going forward. While manufacturing is widespread, for other industries, variations exist; these reflect differing levels of importance to local economies (e.g. agriculture and mining in Latin America, oil this bodes well for quality and

30、 coverage but sets a high bar for the pricing premiums needed to recoup the investment. By contrast, Asia (mostly China) is much lower. 5G investment and the link to RoI 175G outlook Source GSMA Intelligence Network Transformation Survey 2020 AsiaEuropeAmericas 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% NA / no pla

31、nsAfter 2022Between 2021 and 2022 Between 2020 and 2021 20202019 Considering your 5G network assets and strategy, when do you plan standalone 5G? Percentage of operators Much of the enterprise opportunity for 5G will rely on standalone networks being installed for low-latency capabilities. Our surve

32、y of mobile operators points to 2021 as the tipping point year for launching live standalone networks. This has moved forward, reflecting the urgency of having infrastructure in place to service enterprise clients being wooed by vendors and cloud companies. As with non-standalone builds tethered to

33、LTE masts so far, China and the US will be the global leaders in standalone networks (China already is, as it has used the architecture from the start). European operators are also in the game, particularly in the Nordic region, which is seeing a mini industrial revitalisation take place with operat

34、ors, vendors and enterprise conglomerates from manufacturing acting as an ecosystem to roadtest and launch 5G industrial applications. The timetable for standalone networks has been brought forward 185G outlook Source GSMA Intelligence Assignments plannedAssignments completed and plannedAssignments

35、completed The state of play for 5G spectrum is mixed As of Q3 2020, new spectrum specifically earmarked for 5G had been assigned in 35 countries. The remaining countries are either waiting on auctions or redeploying existing bands for 5G use. While the mid-band of 16 GHz has been most popular (50% o

36、f operators that have been assigned spectrum), sub-1 GHz and above 6 GHz have accounted for 20 30% each, underscoring a broad distribution. This portends a more heterogeneous era of deploying 5G networks. It could even apply to a single operator, which may deploy 5G in cities on mmWave while the sub

37、urban/rural footprint relies on coverage spectrum below 1 GHz. Data as of 30 September 2020 195G outlook mmWave (27 GHz +)700 MHzDynamic spectrum sharing Where capacity requirements are high, such as in city centres in Europe, North America and China, mmWave will be used to provide a cost-effective

38、solution for high-speed, low- latency 5G. Despite the advantages, there are limitations including signal loss, the high number of cell sites required to provide coverage comparable to lower band frequencies, and difficulties with indoor penetration. Consequently, low and mid-band frequencies will re

39、main first choice for most consumer use cases in the early phases of 5G rollouts. This band helps reach wider geographic areas once city and suburban areas are covered. It is currently used for TV transmission, especially in Europe. Many countries are now working to free the spectrum to allow a tran

40、sition to 5G mobile services. Spectrum auctions for 700 MHz are targeted to take place late in 2020 or early 2021. Dynamic spectrum sharing (DSS) allows mobile operators to use the same spectrum band for different radio access technologies such as 4G and 5G. Sixteen mobile operators in 10 countries

41、have launched 5G using DSS. These can be classified into two groups: Operators that want to deploy 5G but do not have access to new 5G spectrum. Operators with access to 5G spectrum but want to achieve greater coverage (by deploying DSS in low or mid bands). Pursuing new spectrum frontiers and techn

42、ologies Examples VerizonUS T-MobileUS AT both rank as important, with less than 20% indicating the opposite. Engaging new network suppliers is often positioned as a means to drive competition and supply-chain diversity, which will (in turn) keep overall network deployment and operations costs in che

43、ck. The same is often said of open network technologies including open RAN; solutions based on these technologies promise lower operations and (eventually) lower acquisition costs. How important is it to introduce open technologies and new suppliers intoyour network? (Operator survey) 23Network tran

44、sformation Source GSMA Intelligence Network Transformation Survey 2020 25% 32% 22% 15% 6% Very likelySomewhat likelyNeither likely nor unlikelySomewhat unlikelyVery unlikely 5G acts as a catalyst for bringing new suppliers and technologies into the network One way to explain the importance of engagi

45、ng new vendors and leveraging open network technologies, despite the strategic focus on making money, is to frame it within the context of 5G launches. As a new technology generation, 5G provides operators with an opportunity to evolve or even dramatically transform the way they build networks. The

46、timing of 5G also aligns with the availability and commercialisation of open network technologies. Open RAN provides an example of a technology potentially helped by 5G timing but with massive application to previous generations of mobile tech too. Although 5G represents a break from previous techno

47、logy generations, it also provides impetus to source network technologies and services from a broader set of suppliers. From a timing perspective, many of these will be linked to a concomitant focus on open network technologies as well as politically driven supply- chain considerations. How likely a

48、re you to use 5G to introduce new vendors into your network? (Operator survey) 24Network transformation Source GSMA Intelligence Network Transformation Survey 2020 Moving from monolith to modular Another way to consider the prioritisation of network vendor diversity and open network technologies is

49、through a direct link to revenue generation and customer experience. When suppliers are added to networks, the products mostly likely to be procured include the service core (service-enabling infrastructure) and billing/operations. Beyond competition that keeps costs down, new vendors are seen as important to drive the making-money part of operator strategies. The link between making money and open networking technologies is less direct, but still real. If virtualisation and cloud are considered as part of the move towards open (since platforms and functions can be disaggregated), operators