基于活動模型的敏感性測試.pdf

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1、Sensitivity Testing of Activity-Based ModelsTRB Innovation in Travel Analysis and PlanningIndianapolis,IndianaJune 5,2023Presented by Andrew Rohne2Introduction Testing of model scenarios during implementation of activity-based models(ABM)Part of ActivitySim Implementation Projects Metropolitan Washi

2、ngton COG(MWCOG)Washington,DC Metropolitan CouncilMinneapolis-St.Paul,Minnesota Southeast Michigan COG(SEMCOG)Detroit,MichiganWhy?Testing fidelity of these models Testing and calibrating sensitivity of the model Understanding the model Model training Testing model features3General Test LogisticsTest

3、 mid-late in calibrationCalibrate sensitivity of the modelTest needs to be specific A-B test“A”is the base scenario“B”is limited changes to that base scenarioDocumentation and discussion is criticalTest methods “what,why,how”Comparison of expected outcomes(vague)and model outcomes(specific)Discussio

4、n of impactIs the model response“in the range of expectation”?Model Status4SEMCOGMWCOGMetropolitan CouncilPlatformTransCAD+ActivitySimCube+ActivitySimCube+ActivitySimStatusModel CompletedSome testing remainsPhase 2(full calibration)nearing completionPhase 2 starting soonFirst ABMFirst ABMReplacement

5、 ABM4.8 million people2,811 TAZ/28,637 MAZ4,600 square mi7.2 million people3,669 zones(internal)6,919 square mi3.6 million people3,030 zones(internal)10,190 square miSensitivity Tests5MWCOGPhase 1Metropolitan CouncilPhase 1SEMCOGBehavioral Telecommute FrequencyAuto Operating CostToll RatesTelecommut

6、e FrequencyAuto Operating CostTNC PricingHousehold IncomeNetworkBridge ClosureTransit FrequencyNew Transit ServiceNew Transit ServiceTelecommute Frequency Sensitivity Tests6RegionMWCOGMetropolitan CouncilTestIncreased telecommute for workers that work in DC by 50%Increased telecommute regionally by

7、a factor of 2Key Results25%fewer DC workers with Mandatory PatternSlight VMT decrease14%transit boarding decrease6%fewer workers with mandatory pattern2.6%VMT decrease7%decrease in transit trip modeUnexpected resultsNoticed“bounceback”number of DC workers increased from iteration to iteration-Fixed

8、in Phase 2 using work location simulation constraintNotesBehavior based on pre-pandemic dataAuto Operating Cost Sensitivity Tests7RegionMWCOGMetropolitan CouncilTest+$0.10 per mile+$0.10 per mileKey ResultsInsignificant tour frequency change6%transit trip increase4%non-motorized trip increaseInsigni

9、ficant tour frequency change11%transit trip increase12%non-motorized trip increaseComparisonHigher transit adoption compared to MSP(6.4%tours)Lots of zero-car HHs by choice in DCLower transit adoption compared to DC(3.9%of tours)2%fewer zero-car households compared to DC 8MWCOG Toll Rates TestIncrea

10、sed AM peak period toll rates by 50%on variably-priced facilities I-95:Reversable Express Lanes I-495:Express Lanes both directions I-395:Reversable Express LanesMWCOG Toll Rates Test Results9Expected ChangeModel ChangesTour departures shift from peak to off-peakSlight change from AM and NT to MD an

11、d PMMode shift decrease SOV,increase SR3+Slight shift from SOV and SR2 to SR3+Slight reduction in walk and KNR transitShift away from toll facilitiesAll toll facilities decreased significantlyI-495 general lanes increased significantlyIncreased transit trips0.4%Metrorail boarding decrease0.3%commute

12、r rail boarding increase0.6%bus boarding increaseHow Sensitivity Test Results Influenced Phase 210Departure/Arrival ChoiceDepart AM,Arrive AMAutoDrive aloneShared 2Shared 3+Non-MotorWalkBikeTransitWalkPNRKNRRide-hailTaxiTNCDepart AM,Arrive MDDepart AM,Arrive PMDepart AM,Arrive NTDepart MD,Arrive MDD

13、epart NT,Arrive NTMode choicelogsum Very muted time-of-day response to toll increases Similar muted responses when testing overall AM congestion increase Adjusted mode choice logsum coefficients in time-of-day choice model in order to increase model response to congestionMWCOG Toll Rates Test Change

14、s in Phase 211-5.00%-4.00%-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%AMMDPMNTVMT by Time PeriodPriorUpdated-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%AMMDPMNTVHD by Time PeriodPriorUpdatedUpdated Tour TOD Choice Metropolitan Council TNC Pricing Test12Subsidized TNC fare for lowest income group by 75%(Household inco

15、me$20,000 per year)Expected ChangeModel ChangesIncrease in TNC trips34%increase in rideshare tripsDecrease in transit trips2%decrease in transit tripsSEMCOG Household Income Test13Adjusted household incomes for homes along Woodward Ave Streetcar Transit Corridor Four income scenarios tested:+/-50%+/

16、-25%SEMCOG Household Income Test Results14Model Changes in CorridorIncreased Auto Ownership as income increasedIncreased tours as income increasedAuto tours increased as income increased,transit tours decreased as income increasedAuto Ownership Changes15Tours by Purpose16Tours by Mode17MWCOG Bridge

17、Closure18 Closed the Arlington Memorial Bridge to auto and truck traffic Bridge remained open for transit and non-motorized modesI-66I-395FSK I-495MWCOG Bridge Closure Test Results 19Expected ChangeModel ChangesDecrease in county flows that cross bridge-2%to-3%for counties west of DC-3.5%reduction i

18、n autos between DC and N.VASlightly shorter tour lengthsSlight change regionallyIncrease in traffic on other bridgesLarge increases on I-66 and I-395,smaller increase on Francis Scott Key and I-495(south)Decrease in VMT or VHT,increase in VHD0.07%reduction in VMT0.01%reduction in VHT0.12%increase in

19、 VHDIncrease in transit use0.5%increase in transitMWCOG Transit Frequency Test20Doubled Transit Frequency for high-capacity transit Metrorail Commuter Rail(MARC and VRE)Streetcar MWCOG Transit Frequency Test Results21Expected ChangeModel ChangesMore 0-auto HHs+2%0-autoDecrease in VMT,VHT,VHD0.3%less

20、 VMT1%less VHT2%less VHDIncreased transit boardings on rail,fewer boardings on bus10%increase Metrorail boardings50%increase commuter rail boardings2%decrease bus boardings6%transit increase overallMetropolitan Council Transit Service Test22 Added Metro F Line rapid bus Added Green Line Extension fr

21、om Target Field to Eden PrairieMetropolitan Council Transit Service Test Results23Expected ChangeModel ChangesDecrease in VMT and auto tripsSlight decrease in VMTIncrease in transit tripsSlight increase in regional transitIncreased boardings in corridor 31%increase on Central Avenue Corridor(Route 1

22、0+F Line/North)17%increase on Green Line CorridorSEMCOG Commuter Rail Test24 Added rail from Detroit to Ann Arbor 40-mile route,six stations 1 hour peak headways,4-hour off-peak headways$1 per station fare($5 for full trip)SEMCOG Commuter Rail Test250%20%40%60%80%100%DetroitClark StDearbornWayneYpsi

23、lantiAnn ArborWalk AccessWalk transferDrive Access26SummaryMany tests worked as expectedNetwork testsIncome based tests(TNC and Woodward Ave)Auto operating cost testsTwo tests caused changes in the modelTelecommute frequency test in MWCOGToll Rate Test in MWCOGPlanned Sensitivity Tests27MWCOGBridge,

24、Auto Operating Cost,and Transit Frequency Tests(re-run)Autonomous Vehicle TestingEquity AnalysisMetropolitan CouncilTBDSEMCOGMajor Employment Center TestTelecommuting and E-commerce TestCALI ETEZADY(RSG)Ali.EJOEL FREEDMAN(RSG)Joel.FANDREW ROHNE(RSG)Andrew.RFENG XIE(MWCOG)Feng.Xiemwcog.orgRAY NGO(MWCOG)rngomwcog.orgMARK MORAN(MWCOG)mmoranmwcog.orgDENNIS FARMER(MET COUNCIL)Dennis.Farmermetc.state.mn.usJILIAN CHEN(SEMCOG)Chensemcog.orgJONATHAN EHRLICH(MET COUNCIL)Jonathan.Ehrlichmetc.state.mn.us