高盛：2024年中國綠色卡車運輸的未來電動化崛起（英文版）（39頁）.pdf

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1、中國 卡車和發動機中國綠色卡車運輸的未來-電動化崛起(摘要)鄭睿豐,CFA 鄭睿豐,CFA+852-2978-1405|高盛（亞洲）有限責任公司林妍林妍+852-2978-7020|高盛（亞洲）有限責任公司閆菽靈閆菽靈+852-2978-0178|高盛（亞洲）有限責任公司背景：背景：綠色卡車運輸對于公路運輸行業脫碳至關重要。公路運輸行業是碳排放的主要來源，盡管重卡僅占中國汽車總保有量的3%，但其排放量卻占到了整個汽車行業碳排放量的46%。清潔/新能源重卡（主要采用LNG和純電動為動力）銷量僅占到2021年中國重卡總需求的5%，但這一比例在2023年已升至30%，2024年至今進一步躍升至45%

2、。我們的投資觀點：我們的投資觀點：中國綠色重卡時代的到來早于預期，而且可能加速發展，因為我們預計，在電動化趨勢引領下，低排放/零排放重卡到2030年將占到中國重卡銷量的60%及重卡保有量的三分之一。中國2023年電動重卡銷量達3萬輛，滲透率為5%，已居于全球領先水平（占到整個電動卡車銷量的70%以上），我們預計到2030年，電動重卡銷量將增長10倍以上，達到32.4萬輛（滲透率約為三分之一）。這一提速不僅受到政策支持的推動，更重要的原因是經濟回報顯著改善，這歸功于新能源乘用車行業賦能下中國具有競爭力的電池供應鏈。來自乘用車電動化的啟示：來自乘用車電動化的啟示：我們看到，重卡和乘用車在電動化路徑

3、和競爭格局變動方面既有相似之處，也有細微差別。我們預計電動重卡在短途物流、工程和公用事業領域的普及率將顯著提升（到2030年預計達40-50%），并達到與新能源乘用車當前普及率相當的水平，但考慮到用戶場景的復雜性和多樣性，整體而言重卡市場的加速可能更為和緩。與乘用車市場以往的發展類似，電動化降低了準入門檻并壓平成本曲線，從而顛覆了重卡市場的競爭格局，由此引入新的競爭?？缧袠I的新進企業（如三一和徐工，中國最大的兩家工程機械集團）已經崛起為行業領先企業。價格競爭已經加?。ūM管我們的現金成本分析顯示，當前的降價周期可能不會持續太久），然而市場可能低估了中國重卡行業利潤率的結構性惡化。在我們的行業報告

4、中，我們首次覆蓋中國最大的重卡制造商中國重汽，因利潤率下行風險而給予賣出評級。我們注意到來自這一電動化大趨勢的投資機會不僅面向上市企業，也來自新的行業龍頭正日益涌現的未上市領域。*全文翻譯隨后提供證券研究報告證券研究報告|12 月 16 日|8:49PM HKT?高盛集團公司 pOsRmRsMsMnN8OdN6MpNoOoMmQlOoPpNiNoPsNbRqRtNuOnNoNvPtPsQKey thesis in charts 圖表 1:We expect c.60%of Chinas HDT new sales will be powered by clean/new energy by 2

5、030E,led by electrification.Clean/new-energy HDT domestic demand breakdown by powertrain(LHS)and penetration of HDT vs.PV(RHS)圖表 2:.as we expect a total addition of 410k units of low/zero-emission HDTs over 2024E-30E Domestic retail sales volume change breakdown by powertrain(2016 vs.2023 vs.2030E)3

6、6%82%31%59%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0100200300400500600Penetration%clean/new energy HDT demand(k units)HDT domestic demand-LNGHDT domestic demand-BEVHDT domestic demand-FCVClean/new energy HDT(RHS)New energy PV(RHS)2030E BEV penetration:Overall:32%40-50%in short-haul2030E LNG penetration:Ove

7、rall:27%95%in long-haulDiesel HDTLNG HDTElectric HDT2016 Total660k-219k+139k+36k2023 Total615k-16k+121k+289k2030E Total1,009k426k 69%153k 25%36k 6%410k 41%275k 27%324k 32%645k 98%14k 2%資料來源：ThnkerCar,乘聯會,高盛全球投資研究部 資料來源：ThinkerCar,高盛全球投資研究部 圖表 3:We expect Chinas eHDT demand to grow by+40%CAGR between

8、 2023 to 2030E(vs.overall demand CAGR of+7%)Domestic retail sales volume breakdown by powertrain(BEV and others)圖表 4:We expect c.1/3 of Chinas HDT fleet population to be powered by clean/new energy by end-2030E Domestic HDT installed base change by powertrain(2023 vs.2030E)0 1 1 4 3 9 24 31 70 93 12

9、6 162 178 236 324 615 1,009 -200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600201620172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030Ek unitsBEVDiesel HDTLNG HDTElectric HDT2023 Total8,843k-1,707k+1,215k+1,156k2030E Total9,512k8,137k 92%643k 7%64k 1%6,430k 68%1,858k 20%1,219k 13%5k,Others 資料來源：Thin

10、kerCar,高盛全球投資研究部 資料來源：ThinkerCar,高盛全球投資研究部2024年12月16日 3Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 PM Summary:Truck electrification ready for a jump start Heavy-duty trucks(HDTs)represent only 3%of Chinas total vehicle sales as well as the total fleet population,but is responsible for 46%of carbon emissions in Chinas ov

11、erall vehicle industry,which has been the major source of carbon emissions for transportation.China has been making an effort to decarbonize its trucking industry,and we have seen a notable volume mix shift towards low/zero-emission trucks in Chinas overall truck sales since 2023,with the trend furt

12、her accelerating ytd.In 11M24,45%of Chinas new HDT registrations are already equipped with clean or new energy powertrains,primarily in the form of LNG and battery electric(BEV),and we expect the penetration to further rise to c.60%by 2030E.This will mainly be driven by the rise of electrification,w

13、hich could see its penetration growing 2.5x to c.1/3 in our base case scenario and more than triple to 42%in our best case scenario by 2030E(圖表 7),similar to the current penetration level for passenger vehicles(at 47%).This will translate into a total domestic demand of 324k units for electric HDTs(

14、eHDTs)by 2030E,10 x vs.2023(420k units in our best case scenario,14x vs.2023).圖表 5:Electrification has significantly disrupted the competitive landscape in PV,with BYD now dominating Top 10 PV producers(11M24):ICE vs.NEV 圖表 6:HDT has seen similar disruption,with the rise of cross-industry new entran

15、ts like Sany and XCMG in the NEV era Top 10 HDT producers(11M24):ICE vs.NEV 23%14%8%8%8%7%6%6%5%5%10%8%4%6%4%7%35%6%5%4%3%21%VolkswagenToyotaGeelyCheryHondaChangAnNissanGACGeneral MotorsMercedesBYDTeslaLi AutoSeresGreat WallOthersInner cirlce:ICEOuter circle:NEV20%14%7%19%11%20%11%10%6%5%18%18%7%6%5

16、%3%12%FAWSinotrukShaanxi HD MotorDongfengSanyXCMGYutongFotonGeelyZoomlionJACCLWOthersInner cirlce:ICEOuter circle:NEV 資料來源：乘聯會 資料來源：ThinkerCar2024年12月16日 4Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 While the optimal powertrain technology could remain a key debate,we believe the variety and complexity of the user scenar

17、ios for the HDT industry means there might not be a single powertrain technology that fits all,therefore different powertrain technologies could co-exist.Based on our assessment of the six important metrics(i.e.range,infrastructure 圖表 7:We expect c.60%of Chinas new HDT sales will be powered by clean

18、/new energy in our base case,the ratio could reach 70%+in our best case scenario(c.50%in bear case scenario)Key assumptions breakdown by user scenario for bear,base and best cases 2024E domestic sales volume breakdown by powertrain type vs.2030E powertrain mix 2030E powertrain mix assumption breakdo

19、wn by scenario(vs.11M24)55%52%41%29%32%25%27%29%13%23%32%42%2024E2030E(bear)2030E(base)2030E(best)DieselLNGBEV20%30%40%50%80%70%61%50%11M24BearBaseBest100%90%95%100%11M24BearBaseBest30%35%40%62%30%35%40%38%40%30%20%11M24BearBaseBest81%70%50%30%18%30%50%70%11M24BearBaseBestShort-haul50%of logisticsMe

20、dium-haul20%of logisticsLong-haul30%of logisticsUtility&construction25%of total HDTLogistics75%of total HDT 資料來源：ThinkerCar,高盛全球投資研究部 圖表 8:The variety of use scenarios=No single powertrain technology fits all Chinas likely path for zero/low-emission trucks based on different user scenarios Aggregate

21、s transportCoal transportMining transportConcrete transportConstructionHazardous chemicals transportAutomobile transportHome appliances/machinery transportHeavy-cargo transportContainer transportTrunk transportExpress deliveryGreen Pass(for agricultural products)Utility trucksInter-city deliveryExcl

22、usive-line deliveryRouteTrip distanceElectrification is perfect forshort-haul with fixed route(25%)500km(Long)500km),especially when the LNG/diesel fuel price spread is favorable as the benefit of fuel cost savings outweigh the higher initial acquisition costs.It is considered a cleaner energy compa

23、red to diesel with lower emissions and enjoys a similar level of convenience and refueling speed as domestic LNG refueling station network coverage continues to broaden.However,LNG is widely viewed as a transitional solution before the fuel cell technology becomes ready for full commercialization as

24、 LNG technically is not zero emission.Range anxiety is often recognized as a major barrier to BEV adoption,but it is an ideal solution for short haul(LNG BEV FCVDiesel LNG BEV FCVBEV LNG FCV DieselFCV=Diesel LNG BEVDiesel LNG FCVBEVFCV=BEV LNG Diesel The highest=The most favorable,vice versa.資料來源：高盛

25、全球投資研究部2024年12月16日 14Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 maximum range for the prevailing eHDT models is around 300km.Policy environment We summarize(圖表 29 and 圖表 30)the key government policies to promote new energy HDTs,including both monetary incentives(e.g.subsidies,purchase tax exemptions and toll exemptions

26、)and non-monetary incentives(e.g.emissions reduction target,demonstration zones,etc.).Most recently,the Central government announced a series of policy supports in an effort to boost truck consumption early this year.In March,the State Council released an action plan to promote large-scale equipment

27、 renewal and consumer goods trade-ins.圖表 29:Summary of key govt policies on promoting the adoption of BEV HDTs Policy typeDate of announcementPolicy institutionPoliciesPolicy summaryMonetarySubsidies2024/7State CouncilLarge-scale equipment upgrade and consumer goods trade-in programRmb35k to 95k sub

28、sidies for purchasing different-sized NEV trucks.Purchase tax exemption2023/6Ministry of Finance;Ministry of Industry and Information Technology;State Administration of TaxationAnnouncement on the extension and optimization of the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy for new energy vehiclesExtend t

29、he vehicle purchase tax exemption policy for new energy vehicles to 12/31/2027,with no cap on the tax exemption amount for new energy HDT.Non-monetaryElectrification promotion2023/2Ministry of Industry and Information TechnologyNotice on Organizing the Pilot Zone for the Comprehensive Electrificatio

30、n of Public Sector VehiclesEncourage the application of new energy heavy trucks in specific scenarios such as short-distance transportation,urban logistics and mines.Electrification pilot areas2023/11Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,Ministry of Transport,etc.15 cities as the first bat

31、ch of pilot areas to promote the electrification of public vehicles and construction of charging infrastructureGuangdong as an example:promote the electrification of heavy-duty rigid trucks,engineering trucks and port tractors in cities in the Pearl River Delta,aiming to realize the 100%electrificat

32、ion of new vehicles by 2027.Road privilege and electrification penetration target2023/10-2024/11 Local government(Hebei,Shenzhen,Inner Mongolia,etc.)Require the eHDT in specific scenarios(such as concrete transportation)to reach a certain proportion(40%/80%for Hebei in 2024/2025);Allow new energy tr

33、ucks to enter urban main roads at specific time;Open green channels for new energy logistic trucks.Electrification promotion2024/5State Council2024-2025 carbon emission control planPromote the electrification of vehicles in the public sector;Promote new energy medium and heavy-duty trucks and develo

34、p zero-emission freight fleets;Traget to reduce the carbon dioxide emission intensity by 5%by the end of 2025(vs.2020).Electrification promotion and infrastructure construction2024/10National Development and Reform Commission;National Energy Administration;Ministry of Industry and Information Techno

35、logy;Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development;Ministry of Transport;National Data BureauGuiding Opinions on Implementing Renewable Energy ActionsEncourage the construction of integrated photovoltaic storage charging stations in highway rest areas;Promote the application of new energy medium a

36、nd heavy-duty trucks.資料來源：政府網站 圖表 30:Summary of key govt policies on promoting the adoption of FCV HDTs Policy typeDate of announcementPolicy institutionPoliciesPolicy summaryMonetaryNational subsidies2020/9 Ministry of Finance;Ministry of Industry and Information Technology;Ministry of Science and

37、Technology;National Development and Reform Commission;National Energy AdministrationNotice on the Demonstration of Fuel Cell Vehicles Up to Rmb400k subsidies for purchasing FCV in demonstration cities(til 2024).Local government subsidies2020-2024Local government(Henan,Hangzhou,Hebei,Shanghai,etc.)Up

38、 to Rmb1.8mn subsidies for purchasing FCV;Up to Rmb3mn subsidies for hydrogen refueling stations.Purchase tax exemption2023/6Ministry of Finance;Ministry of Industry and Information Technology;State Administration of TaxationAnnouncement on the extension and optimization of the vehicle purchase tax

39、exemption policy for new energy vehiclesExtend the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy for new energy vehicles to 12/31/2027,with no cap on the tax exemption amount for new energy HDT.Toll fees exemption2024/3Local government(Shanxi,Shandong,Inner Mongolia,Sichaun,Jilin,etc)Free highway tolls(til

40、2027).Non-monetaryPilot areas2023/4Local Government(Shanxi)Hydrogen Energy Industry Chain Action Plan(2023)Carry out demonstration application of hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty truck transportation in Taiyuan,Luliang,Linfen,Shuozhou and other places,and eccourage the construction of hydrogen stations

41、 in above places.Application promotion in specific scenarios and infrastructure construction2023/7Local Government(Shanghai)Hydrogen Energy Promotion and Application Plan in the Transportation Sector(2023-2025)Promote the application of hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks in specific scenarios(such as.c

42、ontainer,steel,and automobile transportation.inter-city and suburban logistics);Accelerate the construction of hydrogen refueling stations,aiming to construct no less than 70 hydrogen refueling stations by 2025.Support in supply chain2023/7Local Government(Jilin,Shanxi,Sichuan etc.)Implementation Pl

43、an for Peak Carbon dioxide Emissions TargetPromote the production of hydrogen fuel heavy trucks,hydrogen fuel cell,and hydrogen energy key parts;Carry out the demonstration applications of hydrogen fuel vehicles.Application promotion in public sectors 2023/8Local Government(Inner Mongolia)Regulation

44、s on Promoting the Construction of National Important Energy and Strategic Resource BasesPromote the application of hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks and buses;Promote the production of green hydrogen.Road privilege,infrastructure construction and enterprise subsidies2024/4-2024/11Local Government(Sic

45、huan,Guangdong,Dalian,etc.)Allow hydrogen energy vehicles to enter the central city with no time limit;provide free parking policy to logistics FCV for a limited time;Accelerate the construction of hydrogen pipeline equipment;Up to Rmb1mn subsidies for fuel cell related companies.資料來源：政府網站2024年12月16

46、日 15Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 Two months later,thirteen departments including the Ministry of Transportation,unveiled plans for a renewal program targeting the transportation sector to accelerate the elimination and replacement of old trucks.In July,detailed subsidy schemes were announced to further fa

47、cilitate vehicle retirement and new purchases(圖表 31 and 圖表 32).圖表 31:Central govt announced a series of policies to support HDT sales in 2024 Summary of HDT related policies announced in 2024 Date of announcementPoliciesKey points related to the HDT sector2024-03-13Action plan to promote large-scale

48、 equipment renewals and consumer goods trade-ins To support the renewal of transportation equipment To accelerate the elimination of diesel commercial trucks under China III(or below)emission standards2024-05-31Action plan to launch a large-scale renewal of transportation equipment To accelerate the

49、 elimination and replacement of diesel commercial trucks under China III(or below)emission standards To encourage the elimination and replacement of China IV diesel commercial trucks ahead of the replacement schedule2024-07-24Several measures for providing greater support for large-scale equipment r

50、enewals and consumer goods trade-ins To support the elimination and replacement of old commercial trucks under China III(or below)emission standards.Subsidy details as follows:-Scrap and new purchase:Rmb80,000-New purchase without scrapping:Rmb35,000-Scrap diesel truck ahead of schedule:Rmb30,000202

51、4-07-30Notice for implementation of replacing old commercial truck Subsidy for scrapping/replacing old commercial truck will be funded by central(90%)and local(10%)government.In Eastern/Central/Western China,central government will bear 85%/90%/95%of the cost Effective date:July 31,2024-Dec 31,2024

52、Subsidy details for scrapping HDTs:-Scrap 1-2 years ahead of schedule:Rmb12,000 -Scrap 2-4 years ahead of schedule:Rmb35,000 -Scrap 4/4+years ahead of schedule:Rmb45,000 Subsidy details for new HDT purchase -2-axle HDT:Rmb40,000(China VI diesel)/Rmb35,000(NEV)-3-axle HDT:Rmb55,000(China VI diesel)/R

53、mb85,000(NEV)-4-axle HDT:Rmb65,000(China VI diesel)/Rmb95,000(NEV)資料來源：國務院2024年12月16日 16Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 In addition to the above mentioned policies that are directly aimed at adoption of new energy HDTs,the government has also rolled out policies targeting high emission industries,which also

54、indirectly incentivizes and encourages these industries to switch to new energy transportation through production curbs and/or tiered electricity pricing.For example,on Jun 8th 2024,five major government departments(incl.the National Development and Reform Commission,the Ministry of Industry and Inf

55、ormation Technology,the Ministry of Ecology and Environment,the State Administration for Market Regulation,and the National Energy Administration)jointly issued a special action plan for energy conservation and emission reduction for four high-emission industries including steel,oil refining,synthet

56、ic ammonia,and cement(see official announcement here).Key relevant contents include:Promote clean transportation methods such as railways,waterways,closed belt ncorridors,and new energy vehicles in the four industries.The adoption of clean transportation usage rate in the cement industry should reac

57、h 50%by end-2025.Newly added capacity in the industries must meet energy efficiency standards n(benchmark level)and emission requirements(A-class).Restrict and eliminate the production capacity that cannot meet the standards while implement tiered electricity pricing for companies which cannot meet

58、the energy efficiency or emissions standard.Lessons from the passenger vehicle segment As the largest auto market in the world,Chinas move toward electrification has been a long journey.The first ten years of PV NEV promotion saw penetration rate grow to 6%(in 2020),before rapidly accelerating start

59、ing in 2021(15%penetration),and hitting 40%+in 2024.The late-success in EV adoption for the passenger vehicle segment is 圖表 32:Timeline of the release of detailed replacement policies by local govt Central govt announced new measures to promote the trade-in ShanghaiBeijingTianjinHebeiLiaoningJilinHe

60、ilongjiangJiangsuZhejiangAnhuiJiangxiHubeiHunanGuangxiHainanChongqingSichuanGuizhouYunnanTibetShaanxiGansuQinghaiShanxiInner MongoliaFujianHenanXinjiang02468101214161820Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Timeline of local governmentaction plan 資料來源：Local goverment websites2024年12月16日 17Goldman Sachs中國 卡車

61、和發動機 attributable to both fiscal and non-fiscal measures,including:1)favorable subsidy schemes which have undergone a series of adjustments during the 13-year implementation to adapt to the changing customer needs and macro environment;2)tax incentives(purchasing tax exemption);3)the introduction of

62、 a dual credit policy(introduced in 2017)to promote the implementation of new energy vehicles;4)relaxation of license plate applications restrictions for NEV buyers in some cities;5)Exemption from the“odd-even road rationing scheme”in a majority of cities for which such policies have been implemente

63、d.Battery electric:Electrification on the verge of a breakout;2.5x increase in penetration ahead Similar to passenger vehicle,China has been leading the electrification in the truck space globally.According to IEA,Chinas sales volume of electric trucks(including HDTs)represented 70%+of the worlds to

64、tal electric truck registration(圖表 33),3.5x the size of Europe(ranked No.2).Yet,the level of overall truck electrification in China was slightly less than 3%in 2023(圖表 34).Key timeline of NEV subsidy schemes:The initial subsidy scheme was launched in 2009 to promote the adoption of electric vehicles

65、 in 13 pilot cities for selected types of vehicles(primarily commercial vehicles)and has been the foundation for future extended subsidy programs:In 2010,the subsidy policy was expanded to 25 pilot cities,and to cover private-owned vehicles.nIn 2013,China unveiled a 3-year program and extended a new

66、 NEV subsidy scheme with a nphase-down mechanism(i.e.5%/10%subsidy reduction in 2014/2015 compared to 2013 level)for private buyers,to combat air pollution concerns.In 2016,four departments including the Ministry of Finance,the Ministry of Industry and Information nTechnology,the Ministry of Science

67、 and Technology,and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a“Notice on financial policies for new energy vehicle promotion during 2016-2020”for passenger vehicles,with a steeper phase-down mechanism(i.e.20%subsidy cut in 2017-28 compare to 2016 level;40%subsidy cut in 2019-20

68、compared to 2016).Several revisions were made between 2016-2020 with stricter technical/performance requirements(e.g.driving range,battery density etc.).The subsidy plan was set to expire at end-2020 but was further extended to 2022 to stimulate demand.n2024年12月16日 18Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 Within th

69、e HDT segment,electrification penetration has accelerated since 2023 led by construction and utility HDTs(圖表 37),mainly driven by the rapid reduction in eHDT ASP relative to diesel HDTs(圖表 36)as battery ASP(50%+of total BoM cost)fell sharply over the past couple of years.This has led to a significan

70、tly shortened payback period of the additional investment in eHDTs(圖表 36).Electrification penetration reached 12%in 11M24 and 15%so far in 2H24(圖表 38).圖表 33:China represented 70%+of the global electric truck sales Global electric truck registration breakdown by region(2023)圖表 34:China has the highes

71、t overall truck electrification level Electric truck sales share by region(2023)China,71%Europe,20%United States,2%Other,7%2.8%1.6%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%ChinaEuropeUnited StatesOtherTruck electrification(%)資料來源：IEA 資料來源：IEA 圖表 35:ASP of an eHDT has sharply fallen over the years,with a

72、much narrowed price premium vs.ICE HDT ASP trends for HDTs by powertrain(2020-2024)圖表 36:Additional investment payback period of BEV has been shortened to below 2 years in 2024 following the declining trend of battery pack price Additional investment payback period trends of BEV(2019-2024E),without

73、subsidies 010020030040050060070080090020202021202220232024k RmbDiesel HDT(China VI)LNG HDT(China VI)Electric HDT(350kwh)0102030405060708002004006008001,0001,200201920202021202220232024EMonthRmb/kwhBattery pack priceAdditional investment payback period(RHS)2412 資料來源：公司數據,高盛全球投資研究部 1)Assumptions for t

74、he payback period caculation are under the short-haul user scenario;2)Without subsidies 資料來源：公司數據,高盛全球投資研究部2024年12月16日 19Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 We see electric HDT as the most optimal zero-emission solution in a short-haul scenario considering:1)most of the short-haul scenarios overlap with the high

75、-emission industries such as steel mills,mines,and construction sites where emission control policies are stricter(non-monetary incentives);2)the highest saving in fuel cost(Rmb0.8/km lower vs.diesel HDTs and Rmb0.3/km lower vs.LNG HDT)and in some user scenarios(e.g.mining)it yields better fuel effi

76、ciency as it could convert the gravitational potential energy into electricity while going downhill(HDT goes empty uphill while fully loaded downhill in this short-haul scenario);3)range anxiety and charging infrastructure density will no longer be constraints in the short-haul scenario.In addition,

77、since September,the replacement policy implemented also offers a higher subsidy(at Rmb95k)if replacing a China III HDT with an eHDT(vs.Rmb65k if replacing with a China VI diesel HDT).With such subsidy,the capex of eHDT is similar to that of LNG HDT.Return economics have become attractive,even withou

78、t subsidies We conducted a return economics analysis on eHDT(圖表 39)and did a sensitivity analysis to see how daily mileage required changes in order to meet the return economics(i.e.additional investment payback period 10 x+the size in 2023.savings:Rmb8k+/month Comments in 2024:payback period at as

79、short as 8-12 months(short-haul and closed-looped noperation);Initial purchase cost:BEV only costs Rmb600k/unit;Fuel cost savings:Rmb20-25k/month Industry level data has showed that nearly half of Chinas concrete mixing truck sales in 11M24 were electrified,leading the HDT electrification among all

80、types of trucks(圖表 45).圖表 45:Nearly half of the concrete mixing trucks are electrified Electrification for dump trucks,and concrete mixing trucks,cleaning trucks and garbage trucks 48%33%26%14%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2019202020212022202311M24Concrete mixing trucksCleaning truckDump truckTractor 資料來源：Thi

81、nkerCar2024年12月16日 24Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 LNG:Likely to remain the transitional solution in the long-haul Similar to what weve done for eHDTs,to assess the economics of LNG HDT adoption,we compare the life-cycle net profit generation for LNG(we assume a typical 6-year life-cycle)and diesel HDTs un

82、der a long-haul transportation scenario(圖表 50),and conduct a sensitivity analysis to see how required daily mileage changes to meet the return economics under different LNG/diesel price ratio assumptions(圖表 49).We leave out eHDTs in this comparison,under the assumption that battery technology will u

83、nlikely see significant breakthrough to enable a long enough driving range and charging infrastructure in China will unlikely see its density sufficiently high to meet the needs for the long-haul user scenario.However,we acknowledge the downside risk to our LNG HDT adoption assumptions(corresponding

84、ly upside risk to our eHDT penetration assumption),in the event of a significant breakthrough in battery technology and substantially higher charging infrastructure density.Our channel checks suggest that instead of total cost of ownership(TCO)-a prevailing metric to evaluate economics by trucking c

85、ompanies outside China,most truck buyers in China typically look at the payback period for additional investment(i.e.LNG HDT purchase price premium)to evaluate their purchase decision,and 12 months is generally viewed as the threshold level that makes LNG HDT more attractive.This is because the vola

86、tility in the LNG/diesel fuel price spread is often seen as difficult to predict beyond the near-term,especially for the individual truck buyers and small trucking companies(the majority in China).This also explains why LNG HDT penetration in China has been particularly sensitive to the LNG/diesel p

87、rice ratio(圖表 48),even when the near-term fluctuation is caused by seasonality(e.g.LNG prices in China tend to seasonally move higher during winter).圖表 46:The additional investment payback period of electric HDT will be shortened to 1922 months following the decline in battery pack prices Battery pr

88、ice forecasts up to 2030E vs.additional investment payback period of BEV(without subsidies)圖表 47:We expect the penetration of electric HDT to continue to rise to c.1/3 by 2030E,driving a volume CAGR of+29%Domestic sales volume of electric HDTs and penetration rate(2017-2030E)151719212325272901002003

89、004005006007002025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EMonthRmb/kwhBattery pack priceAdditional investment payback period(RHS)240%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%050100150200250300350%unitsElectric HDT domestic sales volumePenetration rate(RHS)1)Assumptions for the payback period caculation are under the short-haul use sc

90、enario;2)without subsidies 資料來源：公司數據,高盛全球投資研究部 資料來源：ThinkerCar,高盛全球投資研究部2024年12月16日 25Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 Key assumptions for our return economics model include:A typical long-haul road freight scenario,with daily mileage of 550km(assume that ntwo drivers take turns);Revenue assumption:Prevailing

91、 spot road freight rate and legally required maximum ncargo weight for a 8x4 tractor-trailer(1t lower for LNG HDT due to its heavy cylinders).Capex assumption:Industry average ASP of diesel and LNG 8x4 semi-trailer ntractors(around Rmb50k premium for LNG HDT),and Rmb65k subsidy for China VI diesel H

92、DT under the current replacement policy;Opex assumption:Spot prices for diesel and LNG,and industry average fuel nefficiency(LNG HDT could save Rmb0.7/km under current assumption).Other key variables include maintenance items(e.g.urea cost for diesel HDT only nand vacuum cost for LNG HDT only)and in

93、surance cost(slightly higher for LNG HDT).Under these assumptions,our key conclusions include:LNG HDT is much more profitable compared to diesel HDT with 2x life-cycle net 1.profit even after taking into account the subsidy for diesel HDT(offered in this round of replacement policy),mainly due to LN

94、G HDTs significant savings in fuel cost.We note that without the subsidy offered to diesel HDTs,LNG HDT would become even more profitable.The economics of LNG HDT appear purely driven by cheaper LNG price relatively to 2.diesel as fuel cost savings contributed most of the life-cycle net profit diffe

95、rence for LNG HDT.LNG/diesel price ratio of 0.7 is a threshold under which LNG HDT could make economic sense(i.e.additional investment payback period 12 months)under most of the daily mileage scenarios.The total investment payback period for LNG HDT is around 6 months shorter than 3.diesel HDTs and

96、the additional investment from using LNG HDT can be covered 圖表 48:LNG HDT penetration has been very sensitive to the near-term LNG/diesel price differential Spot LNG/diesel price differential vs.LNG HDT penetration(monthly)圖表 49:The trend of daily mileage changing with LNG/diesel price ratio under t

97、he condition of 12-month additional investment payback period 0.70%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%1.21.00.80.60.40.20.0LNG/Diesel priceLNG penetration(RHS)Favorableto LNG10M20242023 2025E2022 -200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800Daily mileage(km)LNG/Diesel price ratioUpper limit of daily mile

98、age2023 industry average daily mileageadditional investment payback period=12 months 資料來源：ICE,國家統計局,NYMEX,BP,ThinkerCar 資料來源：ICE,國家統計局,NYMEX,BP,CFLP2024年12月16日 26Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 from the fuel cost savings within 12 months of operation.Outlook:Return economics will be sustained but penetration

99、 may have peaked this year As the economics of LNG HDT appear purely driven by fuel cost savings,the LNG/diesel price ratio seems to be the key swing factor in the adoption of LNG HDTs.Based on our commodity teams forecasts of oil(see note here)and natural gas(see note here),the corresponding LNG/di

100、esel price ratio in the following two years could be sustained near the current favorable level-slightly higher than 2024E average but very much in the zone of favorable economics for LNG HDT adoption(圖表 51)and could see a decline into 2027E to the level below 2024E average.That said,the current lev

101、el of penetration seen ytd in 2024E(32%of total in 11M24)suggests the coverage of LNG HDTs might have already gone beyond the long-haul user scenario(we estimate 30%of total).Given our more positive view on truck electrification in the short haul scenario(which has been elaborated in the previous se

102、ction)due to better economics and zero emissions,we believe LNG HDT penetration may have already peaked in 2024E and see a steady decrease to 27%by 2030E(圖表 52).Overall,as we take a constructive view on the domestic demand cycle on HDT replacement and continued road freight turnover growth,we expect

103、 Chinas total sales volume of LNG HDT to see a CAGR of+8%over 2024E-2030E(圖表 52).圖表 50:LNG HDT is much more profitable than diesel HDT in a long-haul scenario with fuel cost savings as the major contributor Life-cycle total profit differential under a long-haul scenario between LNG HDTs vs.diesel HD

104、Ts by key metrixs(with subsidies)LNG HDT could save Rmb0.7/km(or c.30%)fuel cost due to cheaper LNGLNG HDT does not need add urea(Rmb0.1/km)LNG HDT has higher insurance costRmb65k subsidy for purchasing China VI diesel HDTCAPEX(144)OPEX872(k Rmb)LNG HDTs load is 1t lower than diesel HDTs due to the

105、heavy weight LNG HDT is Rmb50k(or c.15%)more expensive than diesel HDT Key assumptions include:1)6-year life cycle;2)tractor-trailer in a long-haul use scenario;3)current spot prices for diesel and LNG;4)capex is financed by loans with 7%annual loan interest rate;5)Rmb65k subsidies for diesel truck.

106、2024年12月16日 27Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 Hydrogen fuel cell:Commercialization could take longer Hydrogen fuel cell(HFC)is widely regarded as the even more optimal zero-emission solution for HDTs compared to battery electric considering its cleaner energy generation,higher loading weight and much longer

107、cruising range which is suited for long-haul transportation.However,high manufacturing costs and fuel costs(mainly caused by the transportation and storage of hydrogen)remain as the major barriers for commercialization of the technology at the moment.We have conducted a similar return economics anal

108、ysis(圖表 53)to compare the life-cycle net profit of a diesel HDT and an HFC HDT.Our assumptions for revenue are mostly inline with the analysis for LNG HDT,but we assume:Much higher ASP for HFC HDT(3.8x diesel HDTs)mainly due to the high fuel cell ncost(50%+of total manufacturing cost),partially offs

109、et by much higher subsidies for HFC HDT offered by selected local governments(industry average subsidy at Rmb500+k);Higher fuel cost for HFC HDT(Rmb0.7/km higher than diesel HDTs)mainly on nhigh transportation and storage costs of hydrogen,partially offset by much less maintenance costs for HFC HDT(

110、90%of the costs currently are covered by OEMs).圖表 51:We expect LNG/diesel price ratio to stay relatively stable ahead,very much in the zone of favorable economics for LNG HDT adoption LNG/diesel price ratio forecast 圖表 52:We exepct LNG HDT sales to make up 27-32%of the total HDT sales in the next 5

111、years,with a sales volume CAGR of+8%over 2024E-30E Chinas LNG HDT sales and penetration 0.670.710.540.520.560.560.510.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.802021202220232024E2025E2026E2027E0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%050100150200250300(k unit)LNG truck sales volumeLNG truck penetration(RHS)資料來源：萬得,高盛全球投資研究部 資料

112、來源：ThinkerCar,高盛全球投資研究部2024年12月16日 28Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 Based on the results,we see the HFC HDT unlikely to become a disruptive technology before 2030 from a return economics perspective as its life-cycle net profit generation is only 30%of diesel HDTs with additional investment payback period o

113、f around 4 years even taking into account the high subsidies,without which the life-cycle profit could be negative.Even taking into account the potential policy support on hydrogen price(assuming 50%discount in refueling cost),we estimate HFC HDT will still need more than 2 years to earn the additio

114、nal investment back.Our analysis shows that only if the ASP of an HFC HDT were to drop by more than 25%at the current level of subsidies or drop 60%without any subsidies,would the return economics of HFC HDT see notable improvement(additional investment payback period=24 months).This,however,would r

115、equire a cost competitive supply chain,not only for fuel cell but also for the hydrogen production.We note that it took four years for eHDT to achieve a 20%drop in ASP,with the advantage of the cheaper battery supply chain enabled by passenger NEVs.Currently,the sales volume of HFC HDTs by region ha

116、s shown a positive correlation(圖表 54)with policy support at the local govt level(e.g.,vehicle purchase subsidies,demonstration zones,toll exemption,etc.).圖表 53:Hydrogen fuel cell is unlikely to become a disruptive technology,at least not before 2030 Life-cycle total profit differential under the lon

117、g-haul scenario between hydrogen fuel cell HDTs vs.diesel HDTs(with subsidies)OEMs cover 90%of maintenance cost for FCV currentlyThe average subsidy(toll free+government subsidy)for FCV is c.Rmb500+kFCV costs Rmb1mn more than(or 3.8x)diesel HDT taking into account the exemption of vehicle purchase t

118、ax due to the high cost of fuel cellsFCV costs Rmb0.7/km more than diesel HDT due to high storing/logistics costs for H2 FCV has higher insurance costOPEX134(k Rmb)CAPEX(522)Key assumptions include 1)6-year life cycle;2)tractor-trailer in a long-haul use scenario;3)current spot prices for diesel and

119、 hydrogen;4)capex is financed by loans with 7%annual loan interest rate;5)Rmb65k subsidies for diesel truck and Rmb523k subsidies for hydrogen truck.資料來源：高盛全球投資研究部2024年12月16日 29Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 Competitive landscape will likely be reshaped as a result We believe the accelerating truck electrif

120、ication is likely to reshape Chinas HDT industry and the supply chain.The market concentration of diesel-powered HDT in China measured by CR5 has been stable and high at c.70%over the past decade(圖表 55).Industry leaders include FAW/Dongfeng,which offer a full range of vehicles(e.g.both passenger veh

121、icles and commercial vehicles),and Sinotruk/Foton/Shaanxi Heavy Duty Motor,which primarily engage in the production of commercial vehicles.The LNG HDT segment consists of similar players(圖表 56)as ICEs with even higher market concentration(CR5:95%in 11M24).In contrast to the ICE-powered truck segment

122、,the battery electric(圖表 57)and hydrogen fuel cell HDT(圖表 58)segments are more fragmented,with emerging new players and cross-industry new entrants being the disruptive competing forces.圖表 54:Penetration heavily dependent on subsidies at the moment Sales of fuel cell trucks are highly concentrated i

123、n regions with support policies ProvinceAggregate sales since 2020Henan1,27511Hebei1,25811Shanghai98211Beijing96811Guangdong94011Tianjin75911Shandong68811Shanxi646Inner Mongolia32811Jiangsu3131Zhejiang23111Hunan219Shaanxi2021Chongqing175Liaoning981Sichuan951Qinghai72Xinjiang66Hubei57Ningxia14Tibet12

124、Jilin91Anhui81Guangxi4Yunnan3Heilongjiang3Fujian2Gansu0Guizhou0Hainan0Jiangxi0SubsidyDemonstration ZoneToll exemption 資料來源：ThinkerCar,Local govt official websites2024年12月16日 30Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 Moreover,the HDT supply chain is also in the midst of transformation as a result of rising electrific

125、ation penetration.Compared to ICE-powered HDT(圖表 59),the BoM cost structure of an eHDT is very skewed towards the battery pack(50%+of total),and so far every China producer sources batteries externally(CATL has dominated,at 70%of the China battery supply currently)whereas in the ICE era,most leading

126、 producers either have in-house capability for key components like engines,gear boxes and axles,or have formed strong alliances with key suppliers-e.g.Weichai Power with sister company Sinotruk and its 51%owned Shaanxi Heavy Duty Motor;Cummins with Foton and Dongfeng(圖表 62).圖表 55:CR5 for diesel HDT

127、has been quite stable at c.70%Annual market share breakdown by key players for diesel HDTs 圖表 56:CR5 for LNG HDT has increased from 74%in 2016 to 95%in 11M24 Annual market share breakdown by key players for LNG HDTs 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016201720182019202020212022202311M24FAWDongfengSin

128、otrukFotonShaanxi Heavy Duty MotorOthers0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016201720182019202020212022202311M24FAWSinotrukDongfengShaanxi Heavy Duty MotorFotonOthers 資料來源：ThinkerCar 資料來源：ThinkerCar 圖表 57:Electric HDT market is more fragmented compared to diesel/LNG truck markets Annual market share b

129、reakdown by key players for Electric HDTs 圖表 58:Fuel cell HDT market is also quite fragmented Annual market share breakdown by key players for hydrogen fuel cell HDTs(11M24)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019202020212022202311M24OthersShaanxi AutoSinotrukFAWXCMGSanyCD DayunShaanxi AutoDongfengFoto

130、nFAWOthers 資料來源：ThinkerCar 資料來源：ThinkerCar2024年12月16日 31Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 This change in supply chain dynamics has also lowered barriers to entry and flattened the cost curve for the HDT manufacturing industry,inducing competition.This is what we have seen this year,with intensified competition

131、,primarily in the form of pricing,making eHDT a loss-making business for almost all producers at the moment.Such competition has also spilled over to ICE-powered HDTs given the narrowed price premium.Our channel checks suggest almost all producers domestic HDT manufacturing business as a whole is lo

132、ss-making at the moment,and manufacturers with higher export exposure(which generates much better profitability)are essentially subsidizing their domestic business with the profit generated from their export business.That said,with the prices of eHDTs in some cases having fallen close to the BoM cos

133、t of most of the producers,we might already be approaching the bottom of this price cut cycle.圖表 59:Engine is the most important component in the BoM cost of a diesel HDT,representing c.40%of the total Cost structure of a diesel HDT 圖表 60:The BoM cost structure of an eHDT is very skewed towards the

134、battery pack(50%+of total)Cost structure of an eHDT Metal2%Tire2%Engine38%Gear box7%Castings6%Stamping and forging parts11%Cockpit4%Others30%Battery 55%Chassis33%Others12%as of Nov 2024 資料來源：公司數據 as of Nov 2024 資料來源：公司數據 圖表 61:For the BEV HDT market,c.70%is supplied by CATL(measured by installed cap

135、acity)Market share breakdown by major battery producer 圖表 62:In the ICE era,most leading producers either have in-house capability for key components like engines or have formed strong alliances with key suppliers ICE-HDT OEMs engine sourcing by suppliers(11M24)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20202

136、02120222023ytd 2024CATLEVE EnergyGotionOthers0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%SinotrukShaanxi HeavyDuty MotorFAWDongfengFotonWeichaiCumminsFAWYuchaiSinotrukDongfengOthers 資料來源：GGII 1)Weichai is a sister company to Sinotruk and owns 51%equity stake in Shaanxi Heavy Duty Motor;2)Both Dongfeng and Foto

137、n have JVs with Cummins 資料來源：ThinkerCar2024年12月16日 32Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 圖表 63:Nearly 90%of HDT diesel engines are supplied by the top 5 producers in China Annual market share breakdown by key players for diesel HDT engines 圖表 64:Weichai dominates the LNG engine market with c.60%share Annual mark

138、et share breakdown by key players for LNG HDT engines 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016201720182019202020212022202311M24WeichaiCumminsFAWYuchaiSinotruckOthers0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016201720182019202020212022202311M24WeichaiCumminsFAWYuchaiDongfengOthers 資料來源：ThinkerCar 資料來源：ThinkerCa

139、r 圖表 65:The top 3 fuel cell system suppliers own c.80%of the market share in China Fuel cell system market share(2023)圖表 66:Compared to traditional ICE HDT OEMs,cross-industry new entrants Sany and XCMG focus more on eHDTs Annual sales volume breakdown by powertrain type for major players(11M24)Refi

140、re,42%SinoHytec,20%Sino-Synergy,18%SHPT,5%Weichai,3%Others,12%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%FAWSinotruckDongfengFotonShaanxiHeavy DutyMotorSanyXCMGICELNGNEV(Battery)NEV(FCV)資料來源：公司數據 資料來源：ThinkerCar2024年12月16日 33Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 Appendix-Company backgrounds Sany Truck(Private)Sany Truck(als

141、o known as Hunan Xingbida,not covered),established in 2017,is affiliated to the Sany Group,with controlling shareholder as Sany Vehicle Hong Kong-a private company(independent of Sany Group)owned by Mr.Liang Linhe,the nephew of Mr.Liang Wengen who is the founder and ex-Chairman of Sany Group.The com

142、pany engages in manufacturing and sales of heavy-duty trucks with a focus on logistics-purpose trucks(mainly tractors).Construction and utility trucks such as dump trucks,concrete mixing trucks,truck cranes,etc.are under Sany Heavys(600031.SS)business portfolio(圖表 67).The company achieved sales of 6

143、,000 units in the first year of establishment,and delivered 80%+sales volume CAGR between 2018-2020.Different from traditional HDT manufacturers,Sany Truck focuses mainly on the new energy HDT,mostly eHDT at the moment,which represents 61%of its total domestic retail sales volume in 2023(97%of total

144、 in 11M24,圖表 69),based on ThinkerCars insurance registration data.According to the same data source,Sany Truck ranked No.2 in Chinas electric tractor market in 2023,with 14%retail volume share,and topped the market in 11M24,with retail volume share of 17%(圖表 68).圖表 67:Sany Truck focuses on logistics

145、-purpose trucks(mainly tractors)Sany Groups HDT business portfolio by products in 11M24(volume-based)圖表 68:Sany Truck topped the domestic electric tractor market in 11M24,with retail volume share of 17%Sany Trucks market shares in domestic electric tractor(2020 to now)Sany Heavy59%Sany Truck41%Dump

146、trucks22%Concrete mixing trucks 38%Other specialty trucks40%Tractors100%0.1%9.6%14.0%14.2%17.0%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20202021202220232024 ytd 資料來源：公司數據 資料來源：ThinkerCar2024年12月16日 34Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 XCMG Auto(a subsidiary of XCMG Group)XCMG Auto(not covered)was acquired by XCMG Group in 2008

147、(predecessor was Nanjing Chunlan Auto)and was officially put into operation in 2015.XCMG Auto is fully owned by XCMG Group with direct shareholding of 63%and indirect shareholding of 37%.In 2023,sales of heavy-duty trucks accounted for 7%of XCMG Groups revenue(圖表 71).XCMG Auto has wide product cover

148、age including tractors,dump trucks,specialty trucks,and rigid trucks,with sales volume as 73%/16%/11%/0.2%of total respectively in 11M24(圖表 73).Sales of concrete mixing trucks,truck cranes and sanitation trucks are under XCMG Construction Machinery(000425.SZ,not covered).The company achieved total H

149、DT sales volume of 16k units(20%were overseas sales)in 2023 with market share of 2%(ranked the 8th in China),based on CAAM data(wholesale volume).Similar to Sany Truck,XCMG Auto focuses on eHDT(76%of its total domestic retail sales volume in 2023 and 90%in 11M24)and has a dominant position in the do

150、mestic eHDT market(ranking the first since 2022,surpassed by Sany ytd in 2024)with market share of 17%in the domestic total eHDT market and 19%in the domestic electric tractor market by end-2023(17%/18%in 11M24),based on ThinkerCars insurance registration data(圖表 75).In June 2024,XCMG Group announce

151、d plans to introduce strategic investors,as part of the groups mixed ownership reform,by transferring 10.13%shares of XCMG Auto it owned with a valuation no less than Rmb957mn.Based on the disclosure,XCMG Auto achieved sales of Rmb86.26bn in 2023(8%of total Group sales)with NP of Rmb139mn(3%of total

152、 Group NP),implying an NPM of 1.6%(圖表 72).圖表 69:Sany Truck focuses mainly on eHDT,which represents 97%of its total domestic retail sales volume in 11M24 Sany Groups(including its affiliate Sany Truck)HDT domestic sales volume by powertrain across different products(11M24)圖表 70:Sany Group and its aff

153、iliates(including Sany Truck)as a whole have high market shares across major types of eHDTs Sany Groups market shares in domestic eHDT across different products(11M24)83%51%9%97%64%12%46%91%2%35%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Dump trucksConcrete mixingtrucksOther specialtytrucksTractorsSany Groupo

154、verallDieselLNGBEVOthers#1 28.8%#1 18.2%#1 17.0%#4 7.4%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Concrete mixingtrucksDump trucksTractorsOther specialty trucks 資料來源：ThinkerCar 資料來源：ThinkerCar2024年12月16日 35Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 圖表 71:Heavy-duty trucks accounted for 7%of total group sales in 2023 XCMG Groups business po

155、rtfolio breakdown by products in 2023(sales based)圖表 72:XCMG Auto achieved sales of Rmb86.26bn in 2023 with NP of Rmb139mn,implying an NPM of 1.6%Historical revenue and net profit for XCMG Auto Construction machinery90%Auto7%Finance1%Others2%1%7%-6%11%2%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%-2,00002,0004,0006

156、,0008,00010,00020192020202120222023Revenue(mn Rmb)Net profit(mn Rmb)NPM(RHS)資料來源：公司數據 資料來源：公司數據 圖表 73:XCMG Auto focuses more on dump trucks,tractors and selected speciality trucks XCMG Groups domestic HDT business portfolio by products in 11M24(volume based)圖表 74:XCMG was the largest electric tracto

157、r manufacturer in 2023 but surpassed by Sany Truck in 11M24,now No.2 ranked XCMG Autos market share in domestic electric tractor over time up to 11M24 Concrete mixing trucks3%Other specialty trucks8%Tractors73%Dump trucks16%Concrete mixing trucks20%Other specialty trucks80%XCMG Auto61%XCMG Construct

158、ion Machinery39%3.4%8.5%13.9%18.8%16.9%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%20202021202220232024 YTD 資料來源：公司數據,ThinkerCar 資料來源：ThinkerCar2024年12月16日 36Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 圖表 75:XCMG has focused more eHDTs,especially for dump trucks,tractors and concrete mixing trucks XCMG Groups dome

159、stic HDT sales by different powertrain across different product(11M24)圖表 76:XCMG Group as a whole has high market share(within top 3)across different types of eHDTs XCMG Groups market share in eHDT across different products in 11M24 93%93%17%90%64%7%7%83%8%35%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Dump tr

160、ucksConcrete mixingtrucksOther specialtytrucksTractorsXCMG GroupoverallDieselLNGBEVOthers#2 22.0%#2 21.7%#2 16.9%#3 15.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%Concrete mixingtrucksOther specialty trucksTractorsDump trucks 資料來源：ThinkerCar 資料來源：ThinkerCar2024年12月16日 37Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 信息披露附錄 申明 本人，鄭睿豐,CFA，在此申明，本報告所表述

161、的所有觀點準確反映了本人對上述公司或其證券的個人看法。此外，本人薪金的任何部分不曾與，不與，也將不會與本報告中的具體推薦意見或觀點直接或間接相關。本報告首頁所列作者為高盛全球投資研究部分析師，除非另有說明。高盛要素概要 高盛要素概要部分通過將一只股票的主要指標與市場（即我們的覆蓋范圍）和可比同業相比較來評價該股的投資背景。四個主要指標是增長、財務回報、估值倍數（估值）和綜合狀況（增長、財務回報、估值倍數的綜合情況）。增長、財務回報和估值倍數是運用每只股票具體指標的正?；琶嬎?。隨后取這些指標正?；琶木挡⑥D化為相關指標的百分位。每項指標的具體計算方式可能隨著財務年度、行業和所屬地區的不同

162、而有所變化，但標準方法如下：增長指標是基于一只股票的預期銷售增速、EBITDA增速和每股盈利增速（金融股僅采用每股盈利和銷售增速），較高的百分位表示公司增長較快。財務回報是基于一只股票的預期凈資產回報率、ROCE和CROCI（金融股僅采用凈資產回報率），較高的百分位表示公司的財務回報較高。估值倍數基于一只股票的預期市盈率、市凈率、股價/股息、EV/EBITDA、EV/FCF、EV/DACF（EV/經債務調整的現金流）（金融股僅采用市盈率、市凈率和股價/股息），較高的百分位表示公司的估值倍數較高。綜合狀況百分位為增長百分位、財務回報百分位和（100%-估值倍數百分位）的平均值。財務回報和估值倍數

163、使用高盛分析師在財政年度末對未來至少3個季度的預測。增長使用未來至少7個季度的財政年度預測與未來至少3個季度的財政年度預測的比較（所有指標均使用每股數據）。如需了解高盛要素概要更具體的計算，請聯絡您的高盛代表。并購評分 在我們的全球覆蓋范圍中，我們使用并購框架來分析股票，綜合考慮定性和定量因素（各行業和地區可能會有所不同）以計入某些公司被收購的可能性。然后我們按照從1到3對公司進行并購評分，其中1分代表公司成為并購標的的概率較高(30%-50%)，2分代表概率為中等(15%-30%)，3分代表概率較低(0%-15%)。對于評分為1或2的公司，我們按照研究部統一標準將并購因素體現在我們的目標價格

164、當中。并購評分為3被認為意義不大，因此不予體現在我們的目標價格當中，分析師在研究報告中可以予以討論或不予討論。Quantum Quantum是提供具體財務報表數據歷史、預測和比率的高盛專有數據庫，它可以用于對單一公司的深入分析，或在不同行業和市場的公司之間進行比較。信息披露 評級分布/投資銀行關系 高盛投資研究部的全球研究覆蓋范圍 截至2024年10月1日，高盛全球投資研究部對2,988種股票評定了投資評級。高盛給予股票在各種地區投資名單中的買入和賣出評級；未給予這些評級的股票被視為中性評級，根據FINRA的披露要求，這些評級分別對應買入，持有及賣出。詳情見以下“公司評級，研究范圍和相關定義”

165、部分。投資銀行關系表反映了高盛在過去12個月已提供投資銀行服務的公司在各評級類別中所占的比例。法定披露 美國法定披露 任何本報告中研究企業所需的特定公司法定披露見上文：包括即將進行交易的承銷商或副承銷商，1%或其他股權，特定服務的補償，客戶關系種類，之前擔任承銷商或副承銷商的公開發行，擔任董事，擔任股票做市及或專家的角色。高盛擔任或可能擔任本報告中所涉及發行方的債券（或相關衍生品）的交易對手。以下為額外要求的披露：股權及重大利益沖突:高盛的政策為禁止其分析師、分析師屬下專業人員及其家庭成員持有分析師負責研究的任何公司的證券。分析師薪酬:分析師薪酬部分取決于高盛的盈利，其中包括投資銀行的收入。分

166、析師擔任高級職員或董事:高盛的政策通常禁止其分析師、分析師屬下人員及其家庭成員擔任分析師負責研究的任何公司的高級職員、董事或顧問。非美國分析師:非美國分析師可能與高盛無關聯，因此可以不受FINRA 2241條FINRA 2242條對于與所研究公司的交流、公開露面及持有交易證券的限制。評級分布:見上文評級分布披露。價格表:見上文價格表，其中包括之前的評級變化和價格目標的變化，若為電子報告，或本報告分析對象包含多家公司，請參閱高盛網站：https:/ 以下為除了根據美國法律法規規定作出的上述信息披露之外其他司法管轄區法律所要求的披露。澳大利亞:Goldman Sachs Australia Pty

167、 Ltd及其相關機構不是澳大利亞經授權的存款機構（1959年銀行法所定義），因此不在澳大利亞境內提供銀行服務，也不經營銀行業務。本研究報告或本報告的其他形式內容只可分發予根據澳大利亞公司法定義的”批發客戶”，在事先獲得高盛許可的情況下可以有例外。在撰寫研究報告期間，Goldman Sachs Australia全球投資研究部的職員可能參與本研究報告中所討論證券的發行公司或其他實體組織的現場調研或會議。在某些情況下，如果視具體情形Goldman Sachs Australia認為恰當或合理，此類調研或會議的成本可能部分或全部由該證券發行人承擔。如本報告內容包含任何金融產品建議，則該建議僅為一般建

168、議，且高盛提出該建議時并未考慮客戶的目標、財務狀況或需求?？蛻粼诰痛祟惤ㄗh采取行動之前，應結合其自身目標、財務狀況和需求來考慮該建議的適當性。高盛澳大利亞和新西蘭的利益披露，以及高盛澳大利亞賣方研究獨立性制度聲明請參見 https:/ Resolution n.20相關的信息披露請參閱https:/ Resolution n.20第20條，在適用的情況下，對本研究報告內容負主要責任的巴西注冊分析師為本報告開頭部分標明的第一作者，除非報告末另有說明。加拿大:這些信息僅供您參考，在任何情況下都不應被理解為Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC對加拿大證券購買者進行有關任何加拿大證券交易的廣告、要

169、約或征求行為。Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC 未在適用的加拿大證券法規下注冊為任何加拿大司法管轄區內的交易商，通常不被允許交易加拿大證券，并且可能被禁止在加拿大某些司法管轄區內銷售某些證券和產品。若您想在加拿大交易任評級分布投資銀行關系買入持有賣出買入持有賣出全球49%34%17%63%57%40%2024年12月16日 38Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 何加拿大證券或其他產品，請聯系 Goldman Sachs Canada Inc.(高盛集團的關聯機構)或其他已注冊的加拿大交易商。香港:可從高盛（亞洲）有限責任公司獲取有關本報告中所研究公司的證券的額外資料。印度:

170、可從高盛（印度）證券私人有限公司（分析師 印度證券交易委員會(SEBI)編號INH000001493，地址951-A,Rational House,Appasaheb Marathe Marg,Prabhadevi,Mumbai 400 025,India,公司編號 U74140MH2006FTC160634,電話+91 22 6616 9000,傳真+91 22 6616 9001）獲取有關本報告中研究對象或所提及公司的額外資料。高盛可能持有本報告中研究對象或所提及公司的證券（1956年印度證券合同(管理)法條款2(h)之定義）的1%或更高比例。證券市場投資會受到市場風險的影響。請在投資之前

171、仔細閱讀所有相關文件。在SEBI注冊并獲得NISM認證并非對該中間機構表現的擔保，亦不能對投資者回報做出保障。高盛（印度）證券私人有限公司投資者支持部門電郵：india-client-。合規負責人：Anil Rajput|電話：+91 22 6616 9000|電郵：。日本:見下文。韓國:除非高盛另行同意，本報告無論以何種方式取得，僅供金融服務與資本市場法定義的“專業投資者”使用?？蓮母呤ⅲ▉喼蓿┯邢挢熑喂臼谞柗止精@取有關本報告所研究公司的額外資料。新西蘭:Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited及其關聯機構并非1989年新西蘭儲備銀行法定義的“注冊銀行”或“存款

172、機構”。本研究報告以及本報告的其他形式內容只可分發給2008年財務顧問法案定義的“批發客戶”，在事先獲得高盛許可的情況下可以有例外。高盛澳大利亞和新西蘭的利益披露請參見 https:/ 596/2014的補充條款,規定了有關投資建議或其他投資策略的推薦或建議之信息的客觀陳述,以及對特定利益或利益沖突進行披露的技術安排應達到的監管技術標準；英國脫離歐盟和歐洲經濟區之后該實施條例被納入英國國內法律法規）第6(2)條相關的披露信息可在https:/ 買入、中性、賣出：分析師建議將評為買入或賣出的股票納入地區投資名單。只股票在投資名單中評為買入或賣出由其相對于所屬研究范圍的總體潛在回報決定。任何未獲得

173、買入或賣出評級且擁有活躍評級（即不屬于暫停評級、暫無評級、暫停研究或沒有研究的股票）的股票均被視為中性評級。每個地區管理著地區強力買入名單，該名單選自各地區投資名單上評級為買入的股票，以總體潛在回報規模和/或實現回報的可能性為主要依據確立各自研究范圍內的投資建議。將股票加入或移出此類強力買入名單，由各地區的投資評估委員會或其他指定委員會進行管理，并不意味著分析師對這些股票的投資評級發生了改變?？傮w潛在回報：代表當前股價低于或高于一定時間范圍內預測目標價格的幅度，包括所有已付或預期股息。分析師被要求對研究范圍內的所有股票給出目標價格?？傮w潛在回報、目標價格及相關時間范圍在每份加入投資名單或重申維

174、持在投資名單的研究報告中都有注明。研究范圍：每個研究范圍的所有股票名單可登陸https:/ 高盛全球投資研究部在全球范圍內為高盛的客戶制作并分發研究產品。高盛分布在其全球各辦事處的分析師提供行業和公司的研究，以及宏觀經濟、貨幣、商品及投資組合策略的研究。本研究報告在澳大利亞由Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd（ABN 21 006 797 897）分發；在巴西由Goldman Sachs do Brasil Corretora de Ttulos e Valores Mobilirios S.A.分發；Public Communication Channel Gol

175、dman Sachs Brazil：0800 727 5764和/或。工作日（假期除外）上午9點至下午6點。Canal de Comunicao com o Pblico Goldman Sachs Brasil:0800 727 5764 e/ou .Horrio de funcionamento:segunda-feira sexta-feira(exceto feriados),das 9h s 18h；在加拿大由Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC 分發；在香港由高盛（亞洲）有限責任公司分發；在印度由高盛（印度）證券私人有限公司分發；在日本由高盛證券株式會社分發；在韓國由高盛（亞洲

176、）有限責任公司首爾分公司分發；在新西蘭由Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited 分發；在俄羅斯由高盛OOO 分發；在新加坡由高盛（新加坡）私人公司（公司號：198602165W）分發；在美國由高盛集團分發。高盛國際已批準本研究報告在英國分發。高盛國際（由審慎監管局授權并接受金融市場行為監管局和審慎監管局的監管）已批準本研究報告在英國分發。歐洲經濟區:由高盛國際（由審慎監管局授權并接受金融市場行為監管局和審慎監管局的監管）向歐洲經濟區內的以下司法管轄區分發研究報告：盧森堡大公國、意大利、比利時王國、丹麥王國、挪威王國、芬蘭共和國和愛爾蘭共和國；由GSI-Succurs

177、ale de Paris（巴黎分公司；由法國審慎監管管理局授權并接受審慎監管管理局和金融市場管理局的監管）在法國分發研究報告；由GSI-Sucursal en Espaa（馬德里分公司；在西班牙由國家證券市場委員會授權）在西班牙王國分發研究報告；由GSI-Sweden Bankfilial（斯德哥爾摩分公司；由瑞典金融監管局按照瑞典證券市場法(Sw.lag(2007:528)om vrdepappersmarknaden)第4章第4節作為“第三國分公司”授權）在瑞典王國分發研究報告；Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE是一家在德國注冊成立的信貸機構，在單一監管機制下接受歐洲

178、央行的直接審慎監督，在其他方面接受德國聯邦金融監管局(Bundesanstalt fr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht,BaFin)和德國聯邦銀行的監督，由該機構向德意志聯邦共和國和歐洲經濟區內高盛國際未獲授權分發研究報告的司法管轄區分發研究報告，此外，由GSBE哥本哈根分公司filial af GSBE,Tyskland（接受丹麥金融監管局的監督）在丹麥王國分發研究報告；由GSBE-Sucursal en Espaa（馬德里分公司；在有限范圍內接受西班牙銀行的地方監督）在西班牙王國分發研究報告；由GSBE-Succursale Italia（米蘭分公司；在相關適用

179、范圍內，接受意大利銀行(Banca dItalia)和意大利金融市場監管局(Commissione Nazionale per le Societ e la Borsa“Consob”)的地方監督）在意大利分發研究報告；由GSBE-Succursale de Paris（巴黎分公司；接受金融市場管理局和審慎監管管理局的監督）在法國分發研究報告；由GSBE-Sweden Bankfilial（斯德哥爾摩分公司；在一定范圍內接受瑞典金融監管局(Finansinpektionen)的地方監督）在瑞典王國分發研究報告。一般性披露 本研究報告僅供我們的客戶使用。除了與高盛相關的披露，本研究報告是基于我們

180、認為可靠的目前已公開的信息，但我們不保證該信息的準確性和完整性，客戶也不應該依賴該信息是準確和完整的。報告中的信息、觀點、估算和預測均截至報告的發表日，且可能在不事先通知的情況下進行調整。我們會適時地更新我們的研究，但各種規定可能會阻止我們這樣做。除了一些定期出版的行業報告之外，絕大多數報告是在分析師認為適當的時候不定期地出版。高盛是一家集投資銀行、投資管理和證券經紀業務于一身的全球性綜合服務公司。全球投資研究部所研究的大部分公司與我們保持著投資銀行業務和其它業務關系。美國證券經紀交易商高盛是SIPC(https:/www.sipc.org)的成員。我們的銷售人員、交易員和其它專業人員可能會向

181、我們的客戶及自營交易部提供與本研究報告中的觀點截然相反的口頭或書面市場評論或交易策略。我們2024年12月16日 39Goldman Sachs中國 卡車和發動機 的資產管理部門、自營交易部和投資業務部可能會做出與本報告的建議或表達的意見不一致的投資決策。本報告中署名的分析師可能已經與包括高盛銷售人員和交易員在內的我們的客戶討論，或在本報告中討論交易策略，其中提及可能會對本報告討論的證券市場價格產生短期影響的推動因素或事件，該影響在方向上可能與分析師發布的股票目標價格相反。任何此類交易策略都區別于且不影響分析師對于該股的基本評級，此類評級反映了某只股票相對于報告中描述的研究范圍內股票的回報潛力

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