范德祈-使用流行病學方法在行業水平上改善豬的健康和生產.pdf

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1、Using Epidemiological Approaches to Improve Pig Health and Production at the Industry Level利利用用流流行行病病學學方方法法提提高高養養豬豬場場水水平平的的豬豬健健康康和和生生產產范德祈(Dirk Pfeiffer)教授Chow Tak Fung Chair Professor of One Health,City University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong,PR China中國香港香港城市大學OneHealth講座教授Professor of Veterinary Epidemi

2、ology,Royal Veterinary College,University of London,United Kingdom英國倫敦大學皇家獸醫學院獸醫流行病學教授Adjunct Professor at China Animal Health and Epidemiology Centre,Qingdao,PR China中國動物衛生與流行病學中心副教授，中國青島QS World University Rankings 2024 Veterinary Science#1QS World University Rankings 2024#70一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Context背景一

3、帶一路國際生豬產業大會Meat Consumption per Capita in 2022 by Meat Category,sorted by Pig Meat(for 36 OECD countries)2022年按肉類類別劃分的人均肉類消費量，按豬肉分類（36個經合組織國家）OECD(2024),Meat consumption(indicator).doi:10.1787/fa290fd0-en(Accessed on 04 April 2024)一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Meat Consumption in China based on OECD Data,including pr

4、ojection from 2021 to 2030(kg per person per year)基基于于經經合合組組織織數數據據的的中中國國肉肉類類消消費費量量，包包括括2 20 02 21 1年年至至2 20 03 30 0年年的的預預測測（每每人人每每年年公公斤斤）OECD(2024),Meat consumption(indicator).doi:10.1787/fa290fd0-en(Accessed on 04 April 2024)一帶一路國際生豬產業大會The Role of Food Systems in the Context of the United Nations

5、Sustainable Development Goals糧糧食食系系統統在在聯聯合合國國可可持持續續發發展展目目標標中中的的作作用用The illustration above is free to use under the Creative Commons license CC BY-ND 3.0.You are free to share copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format.Click on image to download EPS file.Credit:Azote for Stockholm Res

6、ilience Centre,Stockholm University CC BY-ND 3.0.一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Essential elements for accelerating the systemic transformation of food systems加加速速糧糧食食系系統統系系統統轉轉型型的的基基本本要要素素From:Herrero et al.Innovation can accelerate the transition towards a sustainable food system.Nat Food 1,266272(2020).https:/doi.o

7、rg/10.1038/s43016-020-0074-1一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Pork Food Systems豬豬肉肉食食品品系系統統一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Pig Density in 2015 2015年豬只密度Pig density data from:Gilbert M,G Nicolas,G Cinardi,S Vanwambeke,TP Van Boeckel,GRW Wint,TP Robinson(2018)Global Distribution Data for Cattle,Buffaloes,Horses,Sheep,Goats,Pigs,Chickens and D

8、ucks in 2010.Nature Scientific data,5:180227.doi:10.1038/sdata.2018.227一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Distribution of Pig Farm Sizes in China in 2016 and 2022 中國養豬場規模分布2016年和2022年 Source:China Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Yearbook 2023 (reference:2023中國畜牧獸醫年鑒)Farm size category 豬場規模分類(no.of pigs豬只數量)20162022Count數量

9、%of all farms占所有農場的百分比Count數量%of all farms占所有農場的百分比%change 2022/20162022/2016 年變化百分比1-9941,634,23097.71%18,674,36096.94%44.85%100-499718,5901.69%408,8712.12%56.90%500-999167,2240.39%95,8930.50%57.34%1,000-4,99977,7370.18%69,7920.36%89.78%5,000-9,9997,0790.02%8,5680.04%121.03%=10,0004,5720.01%6,2400.

10、03%136.48%Total42,609,432100.00%19,263,724100.00%45.21%一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Construction of Very Large Pig Farms特大型養豬場的建設一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Top 10 Global Pig Mega Producers(no of sows)between 2016 and 2021 2016年至2021年全球十大生豬生產商（母豬存欄）0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 Muyuan Foodstuffs CoSmithfield Foo

11、ds/WHCharoen PokphandWens GroupZhengbang GroupNew Hope GroupSichuan Dekon GroupPipestone SystemTriumph FoodsBRF S.A.Number of sows201620172018201920202021一帶一路國際生豬產業大會價格的演變一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Circular Economy in Pig Production生豬生產中的循環經濟Liu,X.;Xiao,X.The Optimization of Cyclic Links of Live Pig-Industry Chain

12、 Based on Circular Economics.Sustainability 2016,8,26.https:/doi.org/10.3390/su8010026一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Epidemiological Approaches at for Pig Health,Welfare and Production Management at Industry Level豬豬健健康康、福福利利和和生生產產管管理理的的流流行行病病學學方方法法一帶一路國際生豬產業大會agenthostenvironmentdiseaseThis Photo by Unknown Author is

13、licensed under CC BY-SA病原疾病風險宿主環境Epidemiological“Triad”of Determinants of Disease疾疾病病決決定定因因素素的的流流行行病病學學“三三位位一一體體一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Role of Veterinary Epidemiologist獸獸醫醫流流行行病病學學家家的的作作用用agenthostenvironmentdisease risk病原疾病風險宿主環境一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Role of Veterinary Epidemiology in Pig Health,Welfare and Production獸

14、獸醫醫流流行行病病學學在在豬豬的的健健康康、福福利利和和生生產產中中的的作作用用 connects between 連接 clinical veterinary medicine and 臨床獸醫學 ability to generate supporting evidence based on systems thinking informed by collection and analysis of qualitative and quantitative data 根據收集和分析定性和定量數據的系統思維生成支持性證據的能力一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Risk Assessment and

15、Modelling風風險險評評估估和和建建模模一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Input supply and services投入物供應及服務Production生產Collection收集Transport運輸Slaughter屠宰Processing加工Whole-sale批發Retail零售Consumer消費者Small farrow-to-finish farms小型產仔到育肥農場Medium-size farms中型農場Large farms大型農場Large integrated farms大型綜合農場Traders(live pigs)貿易商（生豬）Brokers經紀人Trans-p

16、orters轉運員Small slaughter house小型屠宰場Large slaughter house大型屠宰場Meat proces-sors肉類加工廠Pork traders豬肉貿易商Butchers屠夫Super-market超市House-holds家庭Restau-rants飯店Food stalls小吃攤Value Chain for Pork Food System豬肉食品系統價值鏈Pork importers豬肉進口商Wet markets濕貨市場Dead pig collectors死豬收集者Import進口Local地方Feed traders飼料交易商Pig b

17、reeders養豬人Pig genetics豬遺傳學Pig health supplies豬保健用品Pig health service豬健康服務Creditors債權人Meat inspectors肉類檢測員?Waste浪費一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Pork IndustryContextual Factors influencing Pork Value Chain影影響響豬豬肉肉價價值值鏈鏈的的因因素素GovernancePoliciesPolicy makersIncentivesLobby groupsEnforcementScientistsRisk mitigationFinanc

18、ialTechnologicalSocialOther factorsEquityProfit distributionGenderSocialGovernmentFeedGeneticsTransportFarmingProcessingSlaughterPork wholesalePork retailRestaurants and hotelsPharmaceuticalsCredit管理結構政府政策制定者政策執行激勵措施科學家游說團體信用豬肉產業動保飼料基因遺傳農場運輸處理屠宰批發銷售零售餐廳酒店風險緩解技術層面財務層面社會層面其他因素股本利潤分配性別社會一帶一路國際生豬產業大會R R

19、e ep po or rt te ed d A AS SF F O Ou ut tb br re ea ak ks s i in n J Ja an n A Ap pr r 2 20 02 24 42 20 02 24 4年年1 1月月至至4 4月月以以來來報報告告的的A AS SF F疫疫情情發發生生情情況況Pig density data from:Gilbert,M.,Cinardi,G.,Zhao,Q.,Tago,D.,Robinson,T.2019:New global pig data in support of the African Swine Fever epidemics.

20、https:/doi.org/10.7910/DVN/JEV3WA,Harvard Dataverse,V1(ASF data from FAO Empres-i)一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Spread of ASF Virus in Food Systems in South,South-East and East AsiaA AS SF F病病毒毒在在南南亞亞、東東南南亞亞和和東東亞亞食食品品系系統統中中的的傳傳播播一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Mathematical Modelling Tool數數學學建建模模工工具具https:/epidemix.app/一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Epidem

21、ix Case Studies in Chinese Language中中文文流流行行病病個個案案研研究究一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Productivity 生產效率一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Temporal Pattern of Number of Slaughter Pigs per Sow per Year from 2012 to 2022 for Selected European Union Countries選選定定的的歐歐盟盟國國家家在在2 20 01 12 2-2 20 02 22 2年年期期間間每每頭頭母母豬豬每每年年提提供供的的屠屠宰宰豬豬數數量量的的變變化化From:Hos

22、te,Robert;Benus,Mariel./International comparison of pig production costs 2022:Results of InterPIG.Wageningen:Wageningen Economic Research,2023.29pp一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Temporal Pattern of Feed Conversion Ratio from 2012 to 2022 for Selected European Union Countries選選定定的的歐歐盟盟國國家家在在2 20 01 12 2-2 20 02 22 2年年期

23、期間間飼飼料料轉轉化化率率的的變變化化From:Hoste,Robert;Benus,Mariel./International comparison of pig production costs 2022:Results of InterPIG.Wageningen:Wageningen Economic Research,2023.29pp一帶一路國際生豬產業大會一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Conclusions 結論一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Conclusions結論 changing structure of pig industry 養豬產業結構變化 need to adapt to f

24、ood system transformation towards sustainable production 需要適應糧食系統向可持續生產的轉變 work towards circular economy 采用循環經濟生產模式 need to improve efficiency of pig production considering optimal health,welfare,productivity and sustainability 要在豬的健康、福利、生產效率和可持續性方面達到可接受的標準，就需要采用群體醫學方法 digitalisation of pig producti

25、on 生豬生產數字化 suitable for use of sensor technologies for generating large amounts of data at farm and industry level 適用于在農場和工業層面使用傳感器技術生成大量數據 data requires analysis and interpretation 數據需要分析和解釋 develop artificial intelligence applications 開發人工智能應用程序 veterinary epidemiologists are able to link between clinical medicine and evidence generated through analysis of data from variety of sources using systems perspective 獸醫流行病學家能夠將臨床醫學和通過使用系統視角分析各種來源的數據而產生的證據聯系起來一帶一路國際生豬產業大會Thank You for Your Attention!感謝您的關注！一帶一路國際生豬產業大會