【公司研究】天奈科技-碳管加速滲透龍頭優勢明顯-20200610[47頁].pdf

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1、 / 1) CNT , 47 CNT 2) CNT 3) CNT 2020-2022 257/332/420 GWh2022CNT10 4020192.83 4) CNTCNT 30% CNT ATLCATL CNT SABICCNT 40 CNT33 2020-20224.97.09.91.3 1.62.3EPS0.540.700.98PE775942 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 328 386 494 699 988 (+/-)% 6.38% 17.96% 27.92% 41.31% 41.50% 68 110 125 163 227 (+/-)% 556.

2、66% 62.89% 13.39% 30.46% 39.52% 0.29 0.47 0.54 0.70 0.98 0.00 68.13 77.25 59.21 42.44 0.00 4.74 5.65 5.16 4.60 (%) 10.60% 6.96% 7.32% 8.71% 10.84% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 174 232 232 232 232 2020/6/5 6 50 41.59 12 24.1464.90 9,643 232 A 232 B/H 0/0 4 -53% -39% -25% -11% 3% 2019/62019/92

3、019/122020/3 % 1M 3M 12M 4% -17% 0% 2% -12% -11% 2020-03-12 2020-02-29 2020-01-08 S0550516050002 021-20361230 S0550119070009 021-20361241 688116 2020-06-10 2 / 47 1.CNT . 5 1.1. 5 1.2. 5 1.3. 7 2.CNT. 7 2.1.(CNT) . 7 2.2.CNT . 8 2.3.CNT . 9 2.4.CNT. 10 2.4.1. . 10 2.4.2. . 11 2.4.3.CNT . 12 3.CNT .

4、14 3.1. . 14 3.2. 19 3.3.CNT . 23 4. . 26 4.1. . 26 4.2. . 29 4.3. 33 4.4. 38 4.4.1. . 38 4.4.2.40%+ . 42 5. . 43 5.1. . 43 5.2. . 44 3 / 47 1 . 5 2 . 6 33C . 6 4 . 8 5 . 8 6 . 10 7 .11 8 . 12 9 . 13 10. 15 11 . 16 12kwh. 17 13GWh . 18 14 . 18 15mAh. 19 165G . 20 17GWh . 20 184G . 22 19. 22 20 . 23

5、213C . 24 22 . 25 23. 25 242018CNT . 27 25. 27 26CNT . 28 27 . 29 28 . 31 29 . 32 30. 32 31. 33 32 . 34 33CNT . 35 34CATL . 35 35CNTCATL . 36 36ATL . 37 37 . 38 38/. 39 392019H1 . 39 40NMP/ . 40 41 . 41 4 / 47 42. 41 43. 42 44. 43 1CNT. 9 2 .11 3 . 12 4 . 13 5 . 15 6 . 16 7 . 21 8 . 30 9CNT . 30 10C

6、NT . 33 11CNT . 34 12CATLCNT . 36 13 . 44 5 / 47 1. CNT 1) CNT, 47 2) CNT 70%3C 25% 3) 1.1. 2011 A TLCA TL CNT, 47 SABIC 1.2. CNT 20193.7313.7% 2.7412.5%73.6%3C 0.9427.6%25.4% 3C99% 3C 1 Wind 6 / 47 70%20192.74 12.5%2017225% 20182019 20197160 20% 2 Wind 3C25%20193C0.94 27.6%20173C 20183C 30%2019 3C2

7、46035% 33C Wind 7 / 47 1.3. CNT CNT =CNT* CNT 2. CNT 1) CNT 2) CNTCNT 3) CNT 2.1. (CNT) CNT 1991NEC CNT 8 / 47 4 Chemistry of Materials 5 2.2. CNT 1120SP2 1001/6 24 9 / 47 3-6 3 1CNT 2.3. CNT 1 2 3 10 / 47 4 2.4. CNT 2.4.1. /NCMNCA 6 11 / 47 7 2.4.2. 2 SP VGCF 12 / 47 VGCF 8 GGIICNKI 2.4.3. CNT 49.4

8、SP 22.8 3 EIS SP 100 KB 87.5 CNTs 49.4 GN 286.2 SP + KB 1 : 1 52.7 SP + CNTs 3 : 2 55.3 SP + GN 5 : 1 43.2 CNTs + GN 3 : 2 22.8 SP + CNTs + GN 67 : 30 : 3 50.4 CNKI 13 / 47 1%-3%3% 0.5%1% 1/61/22018SP5.0-6.5/ 45-55/10 1.7-5 4 2018 (/) 45-55 SP 5.0-6.5 KS-6 9-11 14-16 40-50 2014CNT 5% 2017NCM111CNT S

9、P/Ks-65% 9 MWCNTs 2%5% 0.6%0.9%8%16%5% 14 / 47 CNT CNT 3. CNT 1) 2020-2022 257/332/420 GWh 2) CNT2022 CNT65%3C 30% 3) CNT 4) 2022CNT1040 20192.83 3.1. kwh=kwh/ 1 2025700 2021-20352025 25%25002025 700 40%2020 130 15 / 47 10 GGIIWind 20256002025 25%2023252025 30%202210 203050% 5 Wind MEB 16 / 47 6 202

10、870201914 ID20212020MEB 60 20222030 2039 202515%-25%202325 202020%2022100e-Power e-Power30% 2030450 PSA 202327 2022 2019 2020 10-25% 11 GGIIBNEFWind 2 17 / 47 12kwh GGIIWind A+2017 201845kwh2016 A00 A+ 60kwh 2017 30kwh201770kwh model 3Model3 70kwh 2025 60kwh 18 / 47 13GWh GGIIBNEFWind = 201736 GWh20

11、1856 GWh201962 GWh202070 GWh 201718 GWh201834 GWh201950 GWh2020 72 GWh20202021 25%42%25.535.9 14 Wind 19 / 47 3.2. 3C =3C+ 13C5G 3C3C 2018 19GWh53GWh 35%3C 3C iPhone 113110 mAhiPhone 8 70.8%iPhone X17%P 303650 mAhP 9 21.7%P 207.4%Note 104300 mAh Note 722.9%Note 97.5% 15mAh IDCWind 20 / 47 165G IDCWi

12、nd 5G5G4G5G 2015 20205G IDC201913.7 2.2%20205G14 1.6%5G8.9%202314.8 5G28.1% 5GGalaxy S10 5G/Mate X 5G 4500/4400mAh 5GIDC2019 2.23 20233.0257.9% 17GWh IDCWind 21 / 47 3C 20192.2%13.7202014.020205G 1.2358.9%20215G15% 2019-20211.658/62/65Wh 2019-20215 1600/1700/1800mAh 2019-20211.729/30/31Wh 2019-20215

13、7/62/66GWh5% 60/65/70GWh 2 5G 7 CNESAWind 201965G 6.5105G 5G 22 / 47 184G Wind 4G 5G 2018121.5GWh201930 4-5GWh202060-708GWh 25GWh, 20202021 2225 19 Wind 23 / 47 2020 70 GWh72 GWh2020 25%2020 65GWh2020 60-70,8 GWh2020/2021/2022 257/332/420 GWh 3.3. CNT LFPNCM CNTCNT CNT 3CNT65%3C 28%3 1LFP1.0-1.5 w.t

14、%NCMLCO0.5-1.0 w.t% CNT 2022CNT65% 20 Wind 24 / 47 3CCNT2018 18.0%2022CNT 28% 213C Wind 2CNT 1.5% 372mAh/g61LiC6 360-365mAh/g Li22Si5,4200mAh/g NCM811NCA CNT1 2 3 25 / 47 22 WindGGII 3CNT1040 3CCNT CNTLFPNCM2022CNT 104020192.8 3 23 WindGGII 26 / 47 =CNT* LFPNCM CNT CNT 4. 1) CNTCNT 30% 2) CNT 3) ATL

15、 CATL SABICCNT 50% LFP35% NCM65% CATL5%CATL15% 4) NMP40% 4.1. CNTCNT 30%CNT10CR585% CNT 2018 30% TOP588% 34%2019 CNTCNT TOP 592.8%CNT 27 / 47 242018CNT Wind 25 Wind CNT2016-2019CNT 1.323.740%CNT 0.62.4CNT0.5 28 / 47 2017 20162017 201820192018 26CNT Wind 2016 2017 2018 CNT 2016-2019 CNT40%2019 35%25%

16、 29 / 47 27 Wind 4.2. CNT CNT CNT CNTCNT CNT 100030006000 30 / 47 8 Wind 9CNT Wind 31 / 47 LCOLFPNCM CNTLFP NCM LFP2016201720182019 2695552224451800 LFP201620172018 20192.93/2.69/2.71/ 2.3/ 28 Wind NCM2016201720182019 874318854027740 NCM40%2016 2017201820196.10/4.91/ 4.75/4.2/ 32 / 47 29 Wind 201620

17、1720182019H1 46%37%20%27% CNT201620172018 2019H153%46%45%49% CNT45% CNT2018 60% 30 Wind 33 / 47 CNT 4.3. 2016ATLCATL 20182019A TLCA TL 48%46% 10CNT 31 Wind 20182019 1.140.95 34 / 47 1617 2019H180% 32 Wind CNT500020182019 LFP4.3GWH2.8GWHLFP1.1 0.7CNTLFP1.5 w.t%5% CNT LFP20182019CNT 32002100NCM6.9GWH 7.3GWHNCM1.21.3CNT NCM1.0 w.t%5% CNTNCM 20182019CNT250026002018 2019CNT57004700 11CNT GGII 50%LFP35%NCM 65%