珠寶行業Tenoris數據分析:美國培育鉆零售市場的發展階段和驅動因素-221127(44頁).pdf

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珠寶行業Tenoris數據分析:美國培育鉆零售市場的發展階段和驅動因素-221127(44頁).pdf

1、Tenoris數據分析:數據分析:美國培育鉆零售市場的發展階段美國培育鉆零售市場的發展階段和驅動因素和驅動因素Tenoris Data Analysis:Development Stages and Drivers of the U.S.Lab-Grown Diamond Retail Market汪立亭汪立亭 Liting Wang 李宏科李宏科 Hongke Li 許櫻之許櫻之 Yingzhi Xu 張若白張若白 Ruobai Zhang 2022年年11月月27日日本研究報告由海通國際分銷,海通國際是由海通國際研究有限公司,海通證券印度私人有限公司,海通國際株式會社和海通國際證券集團其他

2、各成員單位的證券研究團隊所組成的全球品牌,海通國際證券集團各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區內從事證券活動。關于海通國際的分析師證明,重要披露聲明和免責聲明,請參閱附錄。(Pleasesee appendix for English translation of the disclaimer)Equity Asia Research2概覽概覽For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest

3、 full report on our website at 1.珠寶首飾:珠寶首飾:10M22美國鉆石和珠寶零售額同比降美國鉆石和珠寶零售額同比降10%2.訂婚戒指:訂婚戒指:2500-4999美元是主力價格帶,美元是主力價格帶,1-7M22中端消費疲軟中端消費疲軟3.培育鉆:品質優化、持續滲透培育鉆:品質優化、持續滲透4.渠道:零售環節強勢,渠道驅動向需求驅動轉變渠道:零售環節強勢,渠道驅動向需求驅動轉變5.美國消費市場跟蹤:美國消費市場跟蹤:2H22需求降溫,關注年底趨勢扭轉跡象需求降溫,關注年底趨勢扭轉跡象6.風險提示風險提示FYkYaXvZlWkWsQpNmO9PaO8OoMrRnP

4、pNkPrQoPiNsQxPbRmNrRwMnPpPwMmQpP3摘要摘要For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 根據鉆石觀察公眾號根據鉆石觀察公眾號,分析師分析師Edahn Golan和和Chris Casey聯合創立的珠寶行業咨詢公司聯合創立的珠寶行業咨詢公司Tenoris.bi.統計了全美統計了全美1200家專

5、業珠寶店鋪的經營數據家專業珠寶店鋪的經營數據,我們取得了我們取得了其統計的部分數據其統計的部分數據,對美國珠寶首飾行業零售端發展進行了分析整理對美國珠寶首飾行業零售端發展進行了分析整理,主要結論有;主要結論有;(1)10M22美國鉆石和珠寶零售額同比降10%:10月美國鉆石和珠寶銷售額同比降10%,我們判斷主因消費者需求下滑。品類:1-7M22,戒指銷量、銷售額占比各超30%、接近40%,是最大品類。材質:鉆石是樣本店使用最多的寶石,1-7M22使用鉆石的珠寶首飾銷量占比約46%、銷售額占比約77%。(2)訂婚戒指銷售情況概覽:1-7M22訂婚戒指銷量略低于21年同期。銷量結構:1-7M22,

6、價格在1500-4999美元的訂婚戒指銷量占比超50%,250-2499美元價格帶的銷量低于或持平整體增速,我們判斷主因通脹和疫情對中端消費影響較大。(3)培育鉆持續滲透、品質優化:10M22樣本店培育鉆銷售額+41.8%,天然鉆銷售額則-25.4%。1-8M22,培育鉆訂婚戒指銷量同比+78%,銷量、銷售額滲透率分別為10.5%、9.6%(21年銷售額滲透率為6%),滲透迅速。價格結構:1-7M22培育鉆與天然鉆訂婚戒指均主要集中在1500-4999美元區間。品質:培育鉆訂婚戒指整體重量更大、顏色和凈度更優、異形培育鉆受到消費者喜愛。(4)渠道驅動向需求驅動轉變:渠道利潤和銷售模式:據Eda

7、hn Golan披露,受供需關系影響,22年以來培育鉆批發價下降,而零售商通過壓低批發價仍實現了毛利率的上升,1-7M22樣本店售出培育鉆訂婚戒指的寄售比例約28%,7M22期末庫存中培育鉆訂婚戒指的寄售比例約52%。我們認為渠道利潤和寄售模式的低風險性是零售商推廣培育鉆的動力。庫存和展望:2H21零售商進購培育訂婚戒指數量逐月上升,但采購量在22年呈下降趨勢,結合10M22印度培育鉆進口減少、出口增長的態勢,我們判斷前期渠道擴張推動了培育鉆的增長,目前處于庫存消化進程中,零售商采購和銷售之間的差距正在縮小,未來消費者需求將成為零售商采購的主要動力。(5)美國2H22需求降溫,關注年底積極變化

8、:據鉆石觀察公眾號,短期看,多因素影響了鉆石需求;長期看,鉆石行業整體發展趨勢積極。年底美國消費市場:據鉆石觀察公眾號援引德勤零售調查報告,受訪者預期22年年底節假日期間人均消費額約為1455美元,與去年同期基本持平。我們認為,從消費者調查結果看,消費需求的下落勢頭有得到遏制的趨勢,年底消費旺季的表現仍然值得期待。觀點:觀點:我們認為,從以上數據來看,培育鉆在消費者端的滲透仍在持續,需求仍然旺盛;庫存方面,樣本店的渠道鋪貨階段進入尾聲,未來零售商的采購計劃將主要取決于消費者需求。結合1-10M22培育鉆銷售額的高增長和年底下游消費市場的需求趨勢,預計零售商的采購額也將隨著銷量的增加而回升。風險

9、提示:風險提示:樣本代表性不足風險;行業變化較快風險;下游消費能力下滑風險;宏觀經濟衰退風險。4For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 10M22印度培育鉆切磨鉆出口同比印度培育鉆切磨鉆出口同比+22%據印度GJEPC,10M22印度進口培育鉆毛坯0.5億美元-47%、出口培育鉆切磨鉆1.8億美元+22%,進口端增速

10、下滑,出口端增速表現穩定較好。我們認為,10M22進口和出口增速的背離反映出培育鉆市場演進中復雜的一面,我們將從零售商角度探討美國培育鉆銷售的情況,分析這一現象的成因和發展脈絡。圖圖 印度培育鉆切磨鉆出口額及增速印度培育鉆切磨鉆出口額及增速資料來源:GJEPC,HTI-200%0%200%400%600%800%0501001502001M17 9M17 5M18 1M19 9M19 5M20 1M21 9M21 5M22印度切磨培育鉆石出口額(百萬美元,左軸)月度同比(%,右軸)-300%-100%100%300%500%700%0501001502002501M188M183M19 10M

11、19 5M20 12M20 7M212M229M22印度培育鉆毛坯進口額(百萬美元,左軸)月度同比(%,右軸)圖圖 印度培育鉆毛坯進口額及增速印度培育鉆毛坯進口額及增速5For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 1.珠寶首飾:珠寶首飾:10M22美國鉆石和珠寶零售額同比降美國鉆石和珠寶零售額同比降10%整體銷售表現:整

12、體銷售表現:22年1-7月,樣本店成品珠寶首飾銷售額同比增加9.1%,銷量同比下降3.9%,除12月外,樣本店單月合計銷售額在2億美元左右、單月銷量150萬個左右。7月,成品珠寶銷售額同比下降6.6%、銷量下降13.5%。22年1-5月,消費者需求有所增長,6月起,需求則有所減弱。珠寶零售呈現一定季節性,從2020、2021年銷售趨勢來看,1-11月樣本店珠寶首飾銷售額和銷量趨勢較平穩,12月明顯上升,12月銷量和銷售額均大致相當于正常月份的2倍,為下游零售的旺季。10M22,美國專業珠寶商鉆石和珠寶銷售額同比下降11%。圖圖 2020-2022年年7月珠寶首飾銷售額(億美元)月珠寶首飾銷售額

13、(億美元)圖圖 2020-2022年年7月珠寶首飾銷售量(個)月珠寶首飾銷售量(個)資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI6For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 珠寶零售額:珠寶零售額:2021年美國珠寶零售額全年增速較高,11M21起,增速有所回落,9M22,珠寶首飾零售額同比下降4%,10M22同比降幅達10

14、%,主因消費者需求減弱。資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI圖圖 2020-2022年年10月美國鉆石和珠寶零售額同比增幅月美國鉆石和珠寶零售額同比增幅202127%34%116%715%156%55%40%32%28%34%55%35%20%20%12%18%2%-2%-7%4%-4%-10%1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月20221.珠寶首飾:珠寶首飾:10M22美國鉆石和珠寶零售額同比降美國鉆石和珠寶零售額同比降10%7For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologie

15、s and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI珠寶首飾市場:珠寶首飾市場:戒指銷量及銷售額占比最高戒指銷量及銷售額占比最高樣本店的珠寶首飾的主要包括戒指、耳飾、項鏈、手鏈、吊墜/胸針、鉆石以及未分類珠寶。22年1-7月,戒指在珠寶首飾中的銷量和銷售額占比均排在首位,分別為35%、40%,均價為1817美元(同比增5.4%),高于所有珠寶首飾的均價1607美元;鉆石類別銷量占比為4%,

16、而均價高達8296美元,使其銷售額占比達23%。圖圖 22年年1-7月不同種類珠寶銷量占比月不同種類珠寶銷量占比圖圖 22年年1-7月不同種類珠寶銷售額占比月不同種類珠寶銷售額占比戒指35%鉆石4%未分類珠寶3%項鏈20%手鏈9%吊墜/胸針12%耳飾17%戒指40%鉆石23%未分類珠寶2%項鏈10%手鏈8%吊墜/胸針4%耳飾13%1.珠寶首飾:珠寶首飾:10M22美國鉆石和珠寶零售額同比降美國鉆石和珠寶零售額同比降10%8For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all

17、HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI珠寶首飾市場:珠寶首飾市場:9M22高端珠寶首飾市場表現強勁高端珠寶首飾市場表現強勁按不同價格區間劃分,22年1-7月,價格在5-499美元的珠寶銷量占比近50%。據Tenoris.bi.數據,22年9月精品珠寶(fine jewelry)銷售整體下滑(銷量同比降9.1%,銷售額同比降4.3%)。高端市場則表現強勁,在5000-12999美元價格區間內的精品首飾銷量同比增2.0%、銷售額同比增2.3%,超過1

18、0萬美元的精品首飾銷量同比增33%、銷售額同比增51%。我們判斷,相比普通珠寶的受眾中產階級、高端珠寶的受眾高收入群體受到通脹影響較小,因此高端珠寶的銷售表現更佳。圖圖 22年年1-7月不同價格區間珠寶銷量占比月不同價格區間珠寶銷量占比$5-$9917%$100-$24916%$250-$49916%$500-$7499%$750-$9998%$1000-$149910%$1500-$249910%$2500-$49998%$5000及以上6%1.珠寶首飾:珠寶首飾:10M22美國鉆石和珠寶零售額同比降美國鉆石和珠寶零售額同比降10%9For full disclosure of risks,

19、valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 注:銷售額占比為近似數,可能有最大1%的誤差。無寶石為”none”的翻譯。資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI珠寶首飾市場:珠寶首飾市場:鉆石材質的珠寶銷量及銷售額占比最高珠寶首飾的主要材質包括鉆石、珍珠等寶石。22年1-7月,以鉆石為主要寶石的珠寶銷量占比達45.7%,銷售額占比達77%,是樣本店主要銷售額來源。鉆石46%無寶石

20、36%珍珠3%其他15%圖圖 22年年1-7月不同主寶石類型的珠寶銷量占比月不同主寶石類型的珠寶銷量占比圖圖 22年年1-7月不同主寶石類型的珠寶銷售額占比月不同主寶石類型的珠寶銷售額占比鉆石77%無寶石12%其他11%1.珠寶首飾:珠寶首飾:10M22美國鉆石和珠寶零售額同比降美國鉆石和珠寶零售額同比降10%10For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report

21、 on our website at 2.訂婚戒指:訂婚戒指:2500-4999美元是主力價格帶,美元是主力價格帶,1-7M22中端消費疲軟中端消費疲軟資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI訂婚戒指銷售表現:訂婚戒指銷售表現:22年1-7月,訂婚戒指銷售量略低于21年同期,樣本店月銷量接近5000個,我們判斷,銷售量低于21年同期的主要原因是下游需求減弱。圖圖 2020-2022年年7月訂婚戒指銷售量趨勢月訂婚戒指銷售量趨勢11For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on

22、all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 2.訂婚戒指:訂婚戒指:2500-4999美元是主力價格帶,美元是主力價格帶,1-7M22中端消費疲軟中端消費疲軟資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI訂婚戒指銷售表現:訂婚戒指銷售表現:22年1-7月,訂婚戒指均價為4127美元,同比+4.6%,毛利率為49.7%,同比小幅提升。按不同價格區間劃分,價格在1500-2499美元、2500-4999美元的訂婚戒指銷售量合計占比超過50%,5-249美元、2500-4999美元價格區間的銷量

23、同比增速超過整體水平,250-2499美元價格帶的銷量則低于或持平整體增速,我們判斷,這也是通脹和疫情影響下中端消費減弱的結果,中等價位產品市場整體需求減弱,消費部分流向低價位商品,高端商品的需求受影響較小,銷售表現也較好。$5-$990%$100-$2491%$250-$4993%$500-$7495%$750-$9997%$1000-$149915%$1500-$249925%$2500-$499927%$5000及以上17%圖圖 22年年1-7月不同價格區間訂婚戒指銷售量占比月不同價格區間訂婚戒指銷售量占比12For full disclosure of risks,valuation

24、methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 2.訂婚戒指:訂婚戒指:2500-4999美元是主力價格帶,美元是主力價格帶,1-7M22中端消費疲軟中端消費疲軟資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI鉆石訂婚戒指銷售表現:鉆石訂婚戒指銷售表現:22年1-8月,鉆石訂婚戒指銷售量整體較為平穩,但低于21年同期。我們判斷,銷售量低于21年同期的主因在于下游需求減弱。0k5k10k圖圖 2020-2022

25、年年8月鉆石訂婚戒指銷售量趨勢月鉆石訂婚戒指銷售量趨勢13For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 3.培育鉆培育鉆:品質優化、持續滲透:品質優化、持續滲透資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI整體市場:整體市場:據Edahn Golan,10月培育鉆銷售額同比上升41.8%,1-10月同比增長超37%;同時,10M

26、22天然鉆銷售額同比下降25.4%,1-10月下降5.2%。我們認為,在天然鉆需求下滑的情況下,培育鉆的高增長表現印證了消費者對培育鉆的強韌需求。訂婚戒指領域:培育鉆銷量迅速增長訂婚戒指領域:培育鉆銷量迅速增長,均價達天然鉆均價達天然鉆86.8%銷量:銷量:1-8M22,培育鉆訂婚戒指銷量同比+78%。培育鉆訂婚戒指的銷量市占率為10.5%。均價方面均價方面,1-8M22,培育鉆訂婚戒指均價3916美元(同比+14.3%)。培育鉆訂婚戒指銷售額滲透率9.6%(21年滲透率為6%),培育鉆在訂婚戒指類別中迅速滲透。0400800圖圖 2020-2022年年8月月培育培育鉆訂婚戒指銷鉆訂婚戒指銷量

27、(個)量(個)14For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 3.培育鉆培育鉆:品質優化、持續滲透:品質優化、持續滲透資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI訂婚戒指領域:培育鉆銷量迅速增長訂婚戒指領域:培育鉆銷量迅速增長,均價達天然鉆均價達天然鉆86.8%銷量:銷量:1-8M22,天然鉆訂婚戒指銷量同比下降20%,銷量

28、市占率為89.5%。價格:價格:1-8M22,天然鉆訂婚戒指均價4512美元(同比+7.2%),銷售額市占率為90.4%。培育鉆訂婚戒指均價相當于天然鉆的86.79%,二者價格相近。0k4k8k圖圖 2020-2022年年8月天然鉆訂婚戒指銷月天然鉆訂婚戒指銷量(個)量(個)15For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at

29、 3.培育鉆培育鉆:品質優化、持續滲透:品質優化、持續滲透資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI培育鉆訂婚戒指與天然鉆訂婚戒指價格區間分布相似培育鉆訂婚戒指與天然鉆訂婚戒指價格區間分布相似。天然鉆訂婚戒指價格區間主要集中在$1500-$2499(26%)、$2500-$4999(28%);培育鉆鉆訂婚戒指價格區間也主要集中在$1500-$2499(25%)、$2500-$4999(39%)。在這兩個價格區間的天然鉆和培育鉆訂婚戒指合計占比均超過50%,但培育鉆整體價格帶更高,相比天然鉆訂婚戒指,消費者愿意為培育鉆訂婚戒指支付的價格并未大幅縮減。$5-$990%$100-$2490%$250-

30、$4990%$500-$7492%$750-$9993%$1000-$149910%$1500-$249925%$2500-$499939%$5000及以上21%圖圖 22年年1-7月月不同價格區間不同價格區間的天然鉆訂婚戒指銷量占比的天然鉆訂婚戒指銷量占比圖圖 22年年1-7月月不同價格區間不同價格區間的培育鉆訂婚戒指銷量占比的培育鉆訂婚戒指銷量占比$5-$990%$100-$2491%$250-$4992%$500-$7494%$750-$9997%$1000-$149915%$1500-$249926%$2500-$499928%$5000及以上18%16For full disclos

31、ure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 3.培育鉆培育鉆:品質優化、持續滲透:品質優化、持續滲透資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI1-2.99克拉培育鉆訂婚戒指銷量占比克拉培育鉆訂婚戒指銷量占比67%。相比天然鉆,培育鉆訂婚戒指整體重量更大,1克拉以下天然鉆訂婚戒指銷量占比為63.8%,而1克拉以下培育鉆訂婚戒指的銷量占比僅24.4%。1-2

32、.99克拉是培育鉆訂婚戒指的主要重量區間,這一區間的培育鉆訂婚戒指的合計銷量占比為67%。圖圖 22年年1-7月月不同克拉重量區間下天然鉆不同克拉重量區間下天然鉆訂婚戒指銷量占比訂婚戒指銷量占比圖圖 22年年1-7月月不同克拉重量區間下不同克拉重量區間下培育培育鉆鉆訂婚戒指銷量占比訂婚戒指銷量占比0.0%0.3%0.5%0.4%0.6%1.5%2.2%1.0%8.3%8.5%1.1%33.5%14.4%19.1%5.7%2.3%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0.01-0.040.04-0.070.08-0.140.15-0.170.18-0.

33、220.23-0.290.30-0.390.40-0.490.50-0.690.70-0.890.90-0.991.00-1.491.50-1.992.00-2.993.00-3.994.00-4.995.00-5.996.00-6.997.00-7.998.00+0.5%1.4%3.6%1.6%3.6%6.3%9.2%5.2%15.9%12.6%3.9%20.0%6.7%6.1%2.0%0.6%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%0%5%10%15%20%25%0.01-0.040.04-0.070.08-0.140.15-0.170.18-0.220.23-0.290.30-0.390.40-

34、0.490.50-0.690.70-0.890.90-0.991.00-1.491.50-1.992.00-2.993.00-3.994.00-4.995.00-5.996.00-6.997.00-7.998.00+17For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 3.培育鉆培育鉆:品質優化、持續滲透:品質優化、持續滲透資

35、料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI培育鉆相比天然鉆顏色和凈度更優培育鉆相比天然鉆顏色和凈度更優,異形鉆占比更大異形鉆占比更大。1-7M22,培育鉆訂婚戒指中高質量鉆石占比優于天然鉆石,在顏色和凈度方面表現更好;同時期天然鉆訂婚戒指中寶石形狀為圓形的銷量占比為64.70%,培育鉆訂婚戒指的圓鉆占比60.80%,培育鉆異形鉆占比較天然鉆更高。這與培育鉆供給的優化趨勢相吻合。鉆石顏色IFVVS1VVS2VS1VS2SI1SI2I1I2I3D0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.5%0.9%0.8%0.3%0.0%E0.0%0.0%0.2%0.5%0.6%1.1%1.1%0.4%0.0%F0.0%0

36、.1%0.1%0.4%1.0%1.3%1.7%0.8%0.0%G0.0%0.1%0.2%0.9%3.5%6.6%3.2%1.5%0.1%0.0%H0.1%0.1%0.9%4.8%16.0%8.5%3.6%0.6%I0.1%0.2%0.9%1.7%8.2%4.6%3.8%0.2%J0.0%0.1%0.2%0.7%1.1%2.3%2.1%3.4%0.1%K0.0%0.1%0.1%0.5%0.8%1.4%1.3%0.9%0.0%L0.0%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%M0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%總計總計0.1%0.7%1

37、.2%5.2%14.5%38.6%23.9%14.7%1.2%0.0%鉆石顏色IFVVS1VVS2VS1VS2SI1SI2I1I2D0.2%0.5%2.4%1.5%1.2%0.9%0.1%E0.6%1.5%2.6%2.8%2.2%0.7%0.1%F0.1%0.8%1.2%4.0%5.0%3.7%0.8%-0.1%G1.3%4.1%5.3%3.8%1.3%0.1%H0.1%0.7%2.5%3.1%7.2%2.2%0.2%0.1%I0.2%1.6%1.9%2.9%2.8%0.2%J0.6%1.1%2.9%0.2%0.1%K0.2%0.6%18.9%0.1%L0.1%0.3%0.3%0.2%M0.2

38、%0.1%總計總計0.1%1.7%5.3%18.4%21.6%43.1%9.1%0.7%0.1%表表 1-7M22年天然鉆訂婚戒指顏色年天然鉆訂婚戒指顏色&凈度凈度表表 1-7M22年培育鉆訂婚戒指顏色年培育鉆訂婚戒指顏色&凈度凈度18For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 3.培育鉆培育鉆:品質優化、持續滲透:品質

39、優化、持續滲透資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI2020至今,培育鉆婚戒整體鉆石向顏色更白、凈度更高、形狀更豐富方向發展;2020/2021/1-7M22培育鉆訂婚戒指中寶石形狀為圓形的銷量占比分別為70%/66%/61%,銷售額占比分別為66%/64%/55%,圓鉆銷量和銷售額占比下降,異形鉆銷量和銷售額占比上升,消費者對異形鉆的喜愛程度有所增加,我們認為,培育鉆異形鉆逐漸受到消費者歡迎,未來有望開辟出新的細分市場。鉆石顏色VVS1VVS2VS1VS2SI1SI2I1I2D0.1%0.1%0.9%0.8%1.2%E0.3%0.8%2.6%1.1%0.7%0.4%F0.3%0.8%2.6

40、%1.2%1.5%0.1%G0.1%0.5%2.6%4.0%4.4%1.6%0.3%H0.1%0.7%2.5%4.9%15.9%3.4%0.1%0.1%I0.9%2.8%4.4%6.4%1.5%0.4%J0.1%2.5%3.3%9.8%2.3%0.1%K0.9%0.9%1.9%3.2%1.5%0.0%L0.0%0.1%M0.3%總計總計0.4%3.8%14.0%24.5%43.3%12.3%1.5%0.1%鉆石顏色IFVVS1VVS2VS1VS2SI1SI2I1I2D0.1%0.7%1.1%1.1%1.4%0.3%0.1%E0.1%0.6%2.3%2.4%1.9%0.4%0.1%F0.1%0.

41、2%0.6%3.1%3.7%3.6%0.5%0.3%G0.1%0.7%2.6%4.5%3.6%0.4%0.1%H0.1%0.4%3.3%4.2%11.0%2.1%0.3%I0.1%0.7%1.8%3.0%4.5%4.1%0.2%J0.2%1.4%3.3%5.2%0.6%0.3%0.1%K0.6%1.1%13.5%0.1%0.1%L0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%M0.2%總計總計0.1%0.7%3.9%16.3%23.7%44.9%8.6%1.7%0.1%表表 2020年年培育培育鉆訂婚戒指顏色鉆訂婚戒指顏色&凈度凈度表表 2021年培育鉆訂婚戒指顏色年培育鉆訂婚戒指顏色&凈度凈度19For

42、full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 4.渠道:零售環節強勢,渠道驅動向需求驅動轉變渠道:零售環節強勢,渠道驅動向需求驅動轉變資料來源:Edahn Golan,HTI22年以來培育鉆批發價走低:年以來培育鉆批發價走低:3Q22,培育鉆批發價格降幅為6%-37%。其中1克拉鉆石下降21.8%,2克拉鉆石下降近33%,大克拉鉆

43、石價格下降更快。10M22,培育鉆均價同比下降4.4%。據Edahn Golan分析,這種現象的主因在于生產技術的改進使得大克拉鉆石的產量不斷增加,稀缺性下降,降價壓力增大。此外,消費者預期培育鉆的價格會更低,零售商對消費者價格需求做出反應,要求批發商降價,從而帶來價格下調的壓力。圖圖 3Q18-3Q22培育鉆價格指數(按培育鉆的平均批發成交價格計算;培育鉆價格指數(按培育鉆的平均批發成交價格計算;100=3Q18)20For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all H

44、TI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 4.渠道:零售環節強勢,渠道驅動向需求驅動轉變渠道:零售環節強勢,渠道驅動向需求驅動轉變資料來源:Edahn Golan,鉆石觀察公眾號,HTI2020至至22年培育鉆與天然鉆批發價價差拉大:年培育鉆與天然鉆批發價價差拉大:9M22,美國零售商購買1克拉天然鉆與培育鉆之間平均批發價差擴大至76%;具體而言,根據鉆石觀察公眾號,目前不同重量等級的天然鉆與培育鉆批發價格差在55%-84%之間,大克拉鉆石價差更大。主因在于受到供求關系的影響,培育鉆價值在受

45、到侵蝕。但另一方面,零售商的毛利率卻并未受到影響,反而有所上升。據Edahn Golan,22年(截至10月30日)專業珠寶商培育鉆銷售的平均毛利率為52%,同比+4.2pct。主要原因在于零售商向批發商施壓降低批發價格,成本下降的速度快于零售價下降的速度。55.06%73.58%80.05%83.44%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0.50ct1.00ct2.00ct3.00ct圖圖 1克拉圓形天然鉆與培育鉆的批發價格趨勢克拉圓形天然鉆與培育鉆的批發價格趨勢圖圖 不同重量等級的天然鉆與培育鉆批發價格差不同重量等級的天然鉆與培育鉆批發價格差21For full di

46、sclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 4.渠道:零售環節強勢,渠道驅動向需求驅動轉變渠道:零售環節強勢,渠道驅動向需求驅動轉變資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,Edahn Golan,HTI珠寶零售毛利率:珠寶零售毛利率:培育鉆的毛利率略高于天然鉆,我們認為,這給零售商帶來了推廣培育鉆的動力。2022年1至8月,培育鉆裸鉆的毛利率為51

47、.8%,高于天然鉆裸鉆毛利率35.8%;培育鉆訂婚戒指毛利率略高于天然鉆訂婚戒指,二者分別為54.4%和48.6%。2022年1至7月,珠寶零售總體毛利率為48.9%。9M22培育鉆珠寶零售毛利率達53.7%。51.8%35.8%54.4%48.6%48.9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%培育鉆裸鉆天然鉆裸鉆培育鉆訂婚戒指天然鉆訂婚戒指珠寶零售總體圖圖 珠寶零售毛利率(珠寶零售總體為珠寶零售毛利率(珠寶零售總體為1-7M22數據,其余均為數據,其余均為1-8M22)22For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and t

48、arget price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 4.渠道:零售環節強勢,渠道驅動向需求驅動轉變渠道:零售環節強勢,渠道驅動向需求驅動轉變培育鉆訂婚戒指寄售比例接近培育鉆訂婚戒指寄售比例接近30%:21年以來,培育鉆訂婚戒指的寄售比例出現了提升,從2020年的21%增長至2021年的28.5%。相比之下,銷售的天然鉆訂婚戒指中寄售比例僅10%;庫存方面,7M22期末,零售商52%的培育鉆訂婚戒指庫存為寄售庫存。據Edahn Golan披露,

49、十月底,零售商收到的培育鉆整體的寄售比例接近50%,與培育鉆訂婚戒指的情況大體類似,我們認為,在培育鉆銷售中,零售商擁有很強的議價權,批發商相應承擔較大壓力。圖圖 培育鉆訂婚戒指寄售比例培育鉆訂婚戒指寄售比例圖圖 1-7M22銷售天然鉆訂婚戒指寄售比例銷售天然鉆訂婚戒指寄售比例圖圖 1-7M22庫存培育鉆訂婚戒指中寄售比例庫存培育鉆訂婚戒指中寄售比例寄售52%買斷48%21.37%28.5%28.47%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%202020211-7M22培育鉆訂婚戒指寄售10%買斷90%注:寄售為英文memo的翻譯;買斷為應為asset的翻譯,我們認為asset主要為零售商批發進

50、貨、存貨為自有資產的模式,意譯為買斷。資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI23For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 4.渠道:零售環節強勢,渠道驅動向需求驅動轉變渠道:零售環節強勢,渠道驅動向需求驅動轉變培育鉆訂婚戒指庫存情況:培育鉆訂婚戒指庫存情況:7-12M21,零售商收到的培育鉆訂婚戒指數量逐月上升,22

51、年則整體呈現下降趨勢,7M22當月收到的培育鉆訂婚戒指僅比銷售量略高,同時,由于雖然收到的培育鉆訂婚戒指有所下降、但高于售出的培育鉆訂婚戒指,因此2022年零售端庫存緩慢增長。培育鉆整體庫存情況與培育鉆訂婚戒指類似,22年10月底,樣本店的培育鉆庫存環比上月增加了6.6%。我們認為,從零售端數據和GJEPC披露的10M22數據來看,21年下半年,培育鉆訂婚戒指經歷了渠道迅速擴張的周期,至22年9月,渠道擴張進入下半場,速度減緩,目前處于渠道庫存消化的進程中,采購量與銷售量之間的差距正在減小,預計未來需求將成為零售商采購的主要動力,隨著培育鉆需求端的穩步上升而提升。圖圖 培育鉆訂婚戒指銷量、零售

52、商收到數量與庫存量(個)培育鉆訂婚戒指銷量、零售商收到數量與庫存量(個)注:Edahn Golan披露,22年9月樣本中超過70%的專業珠寶商出售培育鉆珠寶,而1M22該比例僅為27%,這一數字似乎與圖中數據有矛盾,可能的解釋有口徑不同,圖中數據為訂婚戒指細分類別,Edahn數據為所有培育鉆飾品;21年下半年有小部分零售商進行了大批量的備貨,而22年的新進入零售商的進貨則為小規模。資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI24For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all

53、 HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 4.渠道:零售環節強勢,渠道驅動向需求驅動轉變渠道:零售環節強勢,渠道驅動向需求驅動轉變資料來源:Tenoris.bi.,HTI培育鉆訂婚戒指庫存情況:培育鉆訂婚戒指庫存情況:7-12M21,零售商收到的培育鉆訂婚戒指數量逐月上升,22年則整體呈現下降趨勢,7M22當月收到的培育鉆訂婚戒指僅比銷售量略高。結合10M22印度進出口數據(10M22印度進口培育鉆毛坯0.5億美元-47%、出口培育鉆切磨鉆1.8億美元+22%),我們認為,這一變化的可能

54、原因是,21年下半年,培育鉆訂婚戒指經歷了渠道迅速擴張的周期,至22年9月,渠道擴張進入下半場,速度減緩,未來需求將成為零售商采購的主要動力,隨著培育鉆需求端的穩步上升而提升。1.00-1.0416%2.00-2.2418%1.5-1.5912%0.50-0.594%0.79-0.794%3.00-3.097%1.20-1.294%1.10-1.192%2.25-2.493%其他30%$5-$990.0%$100-$2490.0%250-4990.0%$500-$7491.4%$750-$9992.8%$1000-$14994.4%$1500-$249914.1%$2500-$499939.4

55、%$5000-$749922.4%$7500-$99998.0%其他7.5%圖圖 培育鉆訂婚戒指庫存占比(按克拉數)培育鉆訂婚戒指庫存占比(按克拉數)圖圖 培育鉆訂婚戒指庫存占比(按零售價)培育鉆訂婚戒指庫存占比(按零售價)25For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 5.美國消費市場跟蹤:美國消費市場跟蹤:2H22需

56、求降溫,關注年底趨勢扭轉跡象需求降溫,關注年底趨勢扭轉跡象資料來源:De Beers,鉆石觀察公眾號,HTI鉆石行業發展展望:鉆石行業發展展望:據鉆石觀察公眾號,21年全球天然鉆珠寶需求同比增27%,主要國家均實現同比增長;1H22全球天然鉆石珠寶需求同比實現高個位數增長,其中:美國和日本呈低兩位數增長,印度和海灣地區呈個位數增長,中國市場下降;2H22受通脹、俄烏沖突等因素影響,鉆石需求放緩。短期來看,高通脹、能源價格暴漲、生活成本上升等因素影響消費者信心及可支配支出,從而影響鉆石需求;長期來看,鉆石行業有整體積極的發展趨勢。年底美國消費市場并不完全消極:年底美國消費市場并不完全消極:據鉆石

57、觀察公眾號援引德勤零售調查報告(此次調查對象為美國消費者,樣本數量4986人),受訪者預期22年年底節假日期間人均消費額約為1455美元,與去年同期基本持平,但低于19年(疫情前)同期。73%的受訪者認為今年會花更多錢購買商品,略低于去年的75%。美國消費市場和去年基本持平,沒有明顯下滑。我們認為,從消費者調查的結果看,消費需求的下落勢頭有得到遏制的趨勢,年底消費旺季的銷售表現仍然值得期待。地區地區成品鉆市場規模(十億美元)成品鉆市場規模(十億美元)YoY鉆石珠寶市場規模(十億美元)鉆石珠寶市場規模(十億美元)YoY2020202120202021全球全球2228+27%6887+27%美國1

58、115+36%3547+34%中國33+32%810+32%印度22+33%45+20%日本11+34%55+12%海灣12+35%23+24%其他地區55+36%1517+15%表表 20-21年全球各地區天然鉆市場需求(數據精確到年全球各地區天然鉆市場需求(數據精確到10億美元)億美元)26For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our we

59、bsite at 6.風險提示風險提示1.樣本代表性不足風險。樣本代表性不足風險。Tenoris.bi.統計了全美1200家專業珠寶店鋪的經營數據,樣本可能無法代表全美珠寶市場。2.行業變化較快風險。行業變化較快風險。外部因素影響行業供需關系,行業可能面臨較快速的調整。3.下游消費能力下滑風險。下游消費能力下滑風險。通脹和疫情等因素影響消費能力,導致消費者需求疲軟。4.宏觀經濟衰退風險。宏觀經濟衰退風險。受宏觀經濟因素影響,美國整體消費可能發生下滑,影響行業發展。APPENDIX 1Summary-We believe that,from the above data,the penetrat

60、ion of lab-grown diamonds at the consumer endcontinues and demand remains strong;in terms of inventory,the channel stocking phase is coming toan end and future retailer purchase plans will largely depend on consumer demand.Combined withthe high sales growth of 1-10M22 lab-grown diamonds and the dema

61、nd trend of the downstreamconsumer market at the end of the year,it is expected that retailers purchasing volume will also pickup with the increase in sales.-Risks:Risk of underrepresentation of the sample,Risk of rapid industry change,Decline indownstream consumption capacity,The macroeconomic down

62、turn27APPENDIX 2重要信息披露重要信息披露本研究報告由海通國際分銷,海通國際是由海通國際研究有限公司(HTIRL),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(HSIPL),Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通國際證券有限公司(HTISCL)的證券研究團隊所組成的全球品牌,海通國際證券集團(HTISG)各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區內從事證券活動。IMPORTANT DISCLOSURESThis research report is distributed by Haitong Intern

63、ational,a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),Haitong International Japan K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),and anyother members within the Haitong

64、 International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”),each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析師認證分析師認證Analyst Certification:我,汪立亭,在此保證(i)本研究報告中的意見準確反映了我們對本研究中提及的任何或所有目標公司或上市公司的個人觀點,并且(ii)我的報酬中沒有任何部分與本研究報告中表達的具體建議或觀點直接或間接相關;及就此報告中所討論目標公司的證券,我們(包括我們的家屬)在

65、其中均不持有任何財務利益。I,Liting Wang,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectcompanies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specif

66、ic recommendationsor views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subjectcompanies discussed.我,李宏科,在此保證(i)本研究報告中的意見準確反映了我們對本研究中提及的任何或所有目標公司或上市公司的個人觀點,并且(ii)我的報酬中沒有任何部分與本研究報告中表達的具體建議或觀點直接或間接相關;及就此報

67、告中所討論目標公司的證券,我們(包括我們的家屬)在其中均不持有任何財務利益。I,Hongke Li,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectcompanies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectl

68、y related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subjectcompanies discussed.28APPENDIX 2我,許櫻之,在此保證(i)本研究報告中的意見準確反映了我們對本研究中提及的任何或所有目標公司或上市公司的個人觀點,并且(ii)我的報酬中

69、沒有任何部分與本研究報告中表達的具體建議或觀點直接或間接相關;及就此報告中所討論目標公司的證券,我們(包括我們的家屬)在其中均不持有任何財務利益。I,Yingzhi Xu,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectcompanies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was

70、,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subjectcompanies discussed.我,張若白,在此保證(i)本研究報告中的意見準確反映了我們對本研究中提及的任何或所有目標

71、公司或上市公司的個人觀點,并且(ii)我的報酬中沒有任何部分與本研究報告中表達的具體建議或觀點直接或間接相關;及就此報告中所討論目標公司的證券,我們(包括我們的家屬)在其中均不持有任何財務利益。I,Ruobai Zhang,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectcompanies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no p

72、art of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subjectcompanies discussed.利益沖突披露利益沖突披露Confli

73、ct of Interest Disclosures海通國際及其某些關聯公司可從事投資銀行業務和/或對本研究中的特定股票或公司進行做市或持有自營頭寸。就本研究報告而言,以下是有關該等關系的披露事項(以下披露不能保證及時無遺漏,如需了解及時全面信息,請發郵件至ERD-D)HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and/or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks orcompanies in

74、 this research report.As far as this research report is concerned,the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship(As the followingdisclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed).29APPENDIX 2

75、評級定義評級定義(從從2020年年7月月1日開始執行日開始執行):海通國際(以下簡稱“HTI”)采用相對評級系統來為投資者推薦我們覆蓋的公司:優于大市、中性或弱于大市。投資者應仔細閱讀HTI的評級定義。并且HTI發布分析師觀點的完整信息,投資者應仔細閱讀全文而非僅看評級。在任何情況下,分析師的評級和研究都不能作為投資建議。投資者的買賣股票的決策應基于各自情況(比如投資者的現有持倉)以及其他因素。分析師股票評級分析師股票評級優于大市優于大市,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數漲幅在10%以上,基準定義如下中性中性,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數變化不大,基準定義如下。根據FINRA/NY

76、SE的評級分布規則,我們會將中性評級劃入持有這一類別。弱于大市弱于大市,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數跌幅在10%以上,基準定義如下各地股票基準指數:日本各地股票基準指數:日本 TOPIX,韓國韓國 KOSPI,臺灣臺灣 TAIEX,印度印度 Nifty100,美國美國 SP500;其他所有中國概念股其他所有中國概念股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform,Neutral,or Underper

77、form for recommending the stocks we cover to investors.Investors shouldcarefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research.In addition,since Haitong International Research contains more completeinformation concerning the analysts views,investors should carefully read

78、 Haitong International Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the ratingalone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or relied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individualcircumstances(such as the investors existing

79、holdings)and other considerations.Analyst Stock RatingsOutperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Neutral:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with th

80、e return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Forpurposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad m

81、arket benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP500;for all other China-conceptstocks MSCI China.30APPENDIX 2評級分布評級分布Rating Distribution31APPENDIX 2截至截至2022年年9月月30日日海通國際股票研究評級分布海通國際股票研究評級分布優于大市優于大市中性中

82、性弱于大市弱于大市(持有持有)海通國際股票研究覆蓋率89.4%9.2%1.4%投資銀行客戶*5.5%6.8%4.5%*在每個評級類別里投資銀行客戶所占的百分比。上述分布中的買入,中性和賣出分別對應我們當前優于大市,中性和落后大市評級。只有根據FINRA/NYSE的評級分布規則,我們才將中性評級劃入持有這一類別。請注意在上表中不包含非評級的股票。此前的評級系統定義此前的評級系統定義(直至直至2020年年6月月30日日):買入買入,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數漲幅在10%以上,基準定義如下中性中性,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數變化不大,基準定義如下。根據FINRA/NYSE的評級分

83、布規則,我們會將中性評級劃入持有這一類別。賣出賣出,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數跌幅在10%以上,基準定義如下各地股票基準指數:日本各地股票基準指數:日本 TOPIX,韓國韓國 KOSPI,臺灣臺灣 TAIEX,印度印度 Nifty100;其他所有中國概念股其他所有中國概念股 MSCI China.Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution,as of Sep 30,2022OutperformNeutralUnderperform(hold)HTI Equity Research Coverage89.4%9.

84、2%1.4%IB clients*5.5%6.8%4.5%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform,Neutral,and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls i

85、nto a hold rating category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are notincluded in the table above.Previous rating system definitions(until 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicat

86、ed below.NEUTRAL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL:The stocks tota

87、l return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCIChina.32APPENDIX 2海通國際非評

88、級研究:海通國際非評級研究:海通國際發布計量、篩選或短篇報告,并在報告中根據估值和其他指標對股票進行排名,或者基于可能的估值倍數提出建議價格。這種排名或建議價格并非為了進行股票評級、提出目標價格或進行基本面估值,而僅供參考使用。Haitong International Non-Rated Research:Haitong International publishes quantitative,screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation andother metrics or may sugg

89、est prices based on possible valuation multiples.Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices orfundamental values and are for information only.海通國際海通國際A股覆蓋股覆蓋:海通國際可能會就滬港通及深港通的中國A股進行覆蓋及評級。海通證券(600837.CH),海通國際于上海的母公司,也會于中國發布中國A股的研究報告。但是,海通國際使用與海通證券不同的評級系統,所以海通

90、國際與海通證券的中國A股評級可能有所不同。Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares:Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme withShanghai and Shenzhen.Haitong Securities(HS;600837 CH),the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai,covers and publis

91、hes research on these sameA-Shares for distribution in mainland China.However,the rating system employed by HS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in theHTI and HS ratings for the same A-share stocks.海通國際海通國際優質優質100 A股股(Q100)指數指數:海通國際Q100指數是一個包括100支由海通證券覆蓋的優質中國A股的

92、計量產品。這些股票是通過基于質量的篩選過程,并結合對海通證券A股團隊自下而上的研究。海通國際每季對Q100指數成分作出復審。Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q100)Index:HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage atHS in Shanghai.These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based scree

93、ning process in combination with a review of the HS A-share teams bottom-upresearch.The Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly.33APPENDIX 2MSCI ESG評級免責聲明條款:評級免責聲明條款:盡管海通國際的信息供貨商(包括但不限于MSCI ESG Research LLC及其聯屬公司(ESG方)從其認為可靠的來源獲取信息(信息),ESG方均不擔?;虮WC此處任何數據的原創性,準確性和/或完整性,并明確表示不作出任何明示或默示的擔保,包括可

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109、l be applied.35APPENDIX 2重要免責聲明:重要免責聲明:非印度證券的研究報告非印度證券的研究報告:本報告由海通國際證券集團有限公司(“HTISGL”)的全資附屬公司海通國際研究有限公司(“HTIRL”)發行,該公司是根據香港證券及期貨條例(第571章)持有第4類受規管活動(就證券提供意見)的持牌法團。該研究報告在HTISGL的全資附屬公司Haitong International(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”)的協助下發行,HTIJKK是由日本關東財務局監管為投資顧問。印度證券的研究報告:印度證券的研究報告:本報告由從事證券交易、投資銀行及證券分析及受Secur

110、ities and Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”)監管的Haitong Securities IndiaPrivate Limited(“HTSIPL”)所發行,包括制作及發布涵蓋BSE Limited(“BSE”)和National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)上市公司(統稱為印度交易所)的研究報告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收購并成為海通國際證券集團有限公司(“HTISG”)的一部分。所有研究報告均以海通國際為名作為全球品牌,經許可由海通國際證券股份有限公司及/或海通國際證券集團的其他成員在其司法管

111、轄區發布。本文件所載信息和觀點已被編譯或源自可靠來源,但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他屬于海通國際證券集團有限公司(“HTISG”)的成員對其準確性、完整性和正確性不做任何明示或暗示的聲明或保證。本文件中所有觀點均截至本報告日期,如有更改,恕不另行通知。本文件僅供參考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的說明并非意圖展示完整的內容,本文件并非/不應被解釋為對證券買賣的明示或暗示地出價或征價。在某些司法管轄區,本文件中提及的證券可能無法進行買賣。如果投資產品以投資者本國貨幣以外的幣種進行計價,則匯率變化可能會對投資產生不利影響。過去的表現并不一定代表將來的結果。某些特定交易,包括設計金融衍生工

112、具的,有產生重大風險的可能性,因此并不適合所有的投資者。您還應認識到本文件中的建議并非為您量身定制。分析師并未考慮到您自身的財務情況,如您的財務狀況和風險偏好。因此您必須自行分析并在適用的情況下咨詢自己的法律、稅收、會計、金融和其他方面的專業顧問,以期在投資之前評估該項建議是否適合于您。若由于使用本文件所載的材料而產生任何直接或間接的損失,HTISG及其董事、雇員或代理人對此均不承擔任何責任。除對本文內容承擔責任的分析師除外,HTISG及我們的關聯公司、高級管理人員、董事和雇員,均可不時作為主事人就本文件所述的任何證券或衍生品持有長倉或短倉以及進行買賣。HTISG的銷售員、交易員和其他專業人士

113、均可向HTISG的相關客戶和公司提供與本文件所述意見相反的口頭或書面市場評論意見或交易策略。HTISG可做出與本文件所述建議或意見不一致的投資決策。但HTIRL沒有義務來確保本文件的收件人了解到該等交易決定、思路或建議。請訪問海通國際網站 ,查閱更多有關海通國際為預防和避免利益沖突設立的組織和行政安排的內容信息。非美國分析師披露信息:非美國分析師披露信息:本項研究首頁上列明的海通國際分析師并未在FINRA進行注冊或者取得相應的資格,并且不受美國FINRA有關與本項研究目標公司進行溝通、公開露面和自營證券交易的第2241條規則之限制。36APPENDIX 2IMPORTANT DISCLAIME

114、RFor research reports on non-Indian securities:The research report is issued by Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),a wholly owned subsidiary ofHaitong International Securities Group Limited(“HTISGL”)and a licensed corporation to carry on Type 4 regulated activity(advising on securities)

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122、the investment.Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Certain transactions,including those involving derivatives,give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.You should also bear in mind that recommendations in thisresearch report are not tailor-made

123、 for you.The analyst has not taken into account your unique financial circumstances,such as your financial situation and riskappetite.You must,therefore,analyze and should,where applicable,consult your own legal,tax,accounting,financial and other professional advisers to evaluatewhether the recommen

124、dations suits you before investment.Neither HTISG nor any of its directors,employees or agents accepts any liability whatsoever for anydirect or consequential loss arising from any use of the materials contained in this research report.37APPENDIX 2HTISG and our affiliates,officers,directors,and empl

125、oyees,excluding the analysts responsible for the content of this document,will from time to time have long orshort positions in,act as principal in,and buy or sell,the securities or derivatives,if any,referred to in this research report.Sales,traders,and other professionals ofHTISG may provide oral

126、or written market commentary or trading strategies to the relevant clients and the companies within HTISG that reflect opinions that arecontrary to the opinions expressed in this research report.HTISG may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or viewsexpressed in t

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128、for the preventionand avoidance of conflicts of interest with respect to Research.Non U.S.Analyst Disclosure:The HTI analyst(s)listed on the cover of this Research is(are)not registered or qualified as a research analyst with FINRA and are notsubject to U.S.FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communicat

129、ions with companies that are the subject of the Research;public appearances;and trading securities bya research analyst.38APPENDIX 2分發和地區通知:分發和地區通知:除非下文另有規定,否則任何希望討論本報告或者就本項研究中討論的任何證券進行任何交易的收件人均應聯系其所在國家或地區的海通國際銷售人員。香港投資者的通知事項:香港投資者的通知事項:海通國際證券股份有限公司(“HTISCL”)負責分發該研究報告,HTISCL是在香港有權實施第1類受規管活動(從事證券交易)的

130、持牌公司。該研究報告并不構成證券及期貨條例(香港法例第571章)(以下簡稱“SFO”)所界定的要約邀請,證券要約或公眾要約。本研究報告僅提供給SFO所界定的“專業投資者”。本研究報告未經過證券及期貨事務監察委員會的審查。您不應僅根據本研究報告中所載的信息做出投資決定。本研究報告的收件人就研究報告中產生或與之相關的任何事宜請聯系HTISCL銷售人員。美國投資者的通知事項:美國投資者的通知事項:本研究報告由HTIRL,HSIPL或HTIJKK編寫。HTIRL,HSIPL,HTIJKK以及任何非HTISG美國聯營公司,均未在美國注冊,因此不受美國關于研究報告編制和研究分析人員獨立性規定的約束。本研究

131、報告提供給依照1934年“美國證券交易法”第15a-6條規定的豁免注冊的美國主要機構投資者(“Major U.S.Institutional Investor”)和機構投資者(”U.S.Institutional Investors”)。在向美國機構投資者分發研究報告時,HaitongInternational Securities(USA)Inc.(“HTI USA”)將對報告的內容負責。任何收到本研究報告的美國投資者,希望根據本研究報告提供的信息進行任何證券或相關金融工具買賣的交易,只能通過HTI USA。HTI USA位于340 Madison Avenue,12th Floor,New

132、 York,NY 10173,電話(212)351-6050。HTI USA是在美國于U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission(“SEC”)注冊的經紀商,也是Financial Industry Regulatory Authority,Inc.(“FINRA”)的成員。HTIUSA不負責編寫本研究報告,也不負責其中包含的分析。在任何情況下,收到本研究報告的任何美國投資者,不得直接與分析師直接聯系,也不得通過HSIPL,HTIRL或HTIJKK直接進行買賣證券或相關金融工具的交易。本研究報告中出現的HSIPL,HTIRL或HTIJKK分析師沒有注冊或具備FI

133、NRA的研究分析師資格,因此可能不受FINRA第2241條規定的與目標公司的交流,公開露面和分析師賬戶持有的交易證券等限制。投資本研究報告中討論的任何非美國證券或相關金融工具(包括ADR)可能存在一定風險。非美國發行的證券可能沒有注冊,或不受美國法規的約束。有關非美國證券或相關金融工具的信息可能有限制。外國公司可能不受審計和匯報的標準以及與美國境內生效相符的監管要求。本研究報告中以美元以外的其他貨幣計價的任何證券或相關金融工具的投資或收益的價值受匯率波動的影響,可能對該等證券或相關金融工具的價值或收入產生正面或負面影響。美國收件人的所有問詢請聯系:Haitong International S

134、ecurities(USA)Inc.340 Madison Avenue,12th FloorNew York,NY 10173聯系人電話:(212)351 605039APPENDIX 2DISTRIBUTION AND REGIONAL NOTICESExcept as otherwise indicated below,any Recipient wishing to discuss this research report or effect any transaction in any security discussed in HTIs research shouldcontact

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136、.This research report does not constitute a solicitation or an offer of securities or an invitationto the public within the meaning of the SFO.This research report is only to be circulated to Professional Investors as defined in the SFO.This research report hasnot been reviewed by the Securities and

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141、o only through HaitongInternational Securities(USA)Inc.(“HTI USA”),located at 340 Madison Avenue,12th Floor,New York,NY 10173,USA;telephone(212)351 6050.HTI USA is a broker-dealer registered in the U.S.with the U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission(the“SEC”)and a member of the Financial Industry Re

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147、quiries by U.S.recipients should be directed to:40APPENDIX 2Haitong International Securities(USA)Inc.340 Madison Avenue,12thFloorNew York,NY 10173Attn:Sales Desk at(212)351 6050中華人民共和國的通知事項:中華人民共和國的通知事項:在中華人民共和國(下稱“中國”,就本報告目的而言,不包括香港特別行政區、澳門特別行政區和臺灣)只有根據適用的中國法律法規而收到該材料的人員方可使用該材料。并且根據相關法律法規,該材料中的信息并不

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154、ties Company Limited和Haitong InternationalSecurities(UK)Limited分別根據澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(以下簡稱“ASIC”)第03/1102、03/1103或03/1099號規章在澳大利亞分發本項研究,該等規章免除了根據2001年公司法在澳大利亞為批發客戶提供金融服務時海通國際需持有澳大利亞金融服務許可的要求。ASIC的規章副本可在以下網站獲?。簑ww.legislation.gov.au。海通國際提供的金融服務受外國法律法規規定的管制,該等法律與在澳大利亞所適用的法律存在差異。印度投資者的通知事項:印度投資者的通知事項:本報告由從事證

155、券交易、投資銀行及證券分析及受Securities and Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”)監管的Haitong Securities IndiaPrivate Limited(“HTSIPL”)所發布,包括制作及發布涵蓋BSE Limited(“BSE”)和National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)(統稱為印度交易所)研究報告。本項研究僅供收件人使用,未經海通國際的書面同意不得予以復制和再次分發。版權所有:海通國際證券集團有限公司2019年。保留所有權利。42APPENDIX 2Peoples Republic

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158、ment approvals orlicenses that are required,whether statutorily or otherwise.Persons who come into possession of this research are required to observe these restrictions.Notice to Canadian Investors:Under no circumstances is this research report to be construed as an offer to sell securities or as a

159、 solicitation of an offer to buysecurities in any jurisdiction of Canada.Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements tofile a prospectus with the relevant Canadian securities regulators and only by Haitong International Se

160、curities(USA)Inc.,a dealer relying on the“international dealerexemption”under National Instrument 31-103 Registration Requirements,Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations(“NI 31-103”)in Alberta,British Columbia,Ontario and Quebec.This research report is not,and under no circumstances should be

161、 construed as,a prospectus,an offering memorandum,an advertisement or apublic offering of any securities in Canada.No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed upon this researchreport,the information contained herein or the merits of the secur

162、ities described herein and any representation to the contrary is an offence.Upon receipt of thisresearch report,each Canadian recipient will be deemed to have represented that the investor is an“accredited investor”as such term is defined in section 1.1 ofNational Instrument 45-106 Prospectus Exempt

163、ions or,in Ontario,in section 73.3(1)of the Securities Act(Ontario),as applicable,and a“permitted client”as suchterm is defined in section 1.1 of NI 31-103,respectively.Notice to Singapore investors:This research report is provided in Singapore by or through Haitong International Securities(Singapor

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166、eport are to contact HTISSPL via the details below in respect ofany matters arising from,or in connection with,the research report:43APPENDIX 2Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte.Ltd.10 Collyer Quay,#19-01-#19-05 Ocean Financial Centre,Singapore 049315Telephone:(65)6536 1920 Notice to Jap

167、anese investors:This research report is distributed by Haitong International Securities Company Limited and intended to be distributed to FinancialServices Providers or Registered Financial Institutions engaged in investment management(as defined in the Japan Financial Instruments and Exchange Act(F

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169、nvestments.Any investment or investment activity to which this research relates is available only tosuch persons or will be engaged in only with such persons.Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on thisresearch.Haitong International Secur

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171、Australian investors:The research report is distributed in Australia by Haitong International Securities(Singapore)Pte Ltd,Haitong International SecuritiesCompany Limited,and Haitong International Securities(UK)Limited in reliance on ASIC Class Order 03/1102,03/1103 or 03/1099,respectively,which exe

172、mpts thoseHTISG entities from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of the financial services it provides towholesale clients in Australia.A copy of the ASIC Class Orders may be obtained at the following website,www.legislation.go

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174、otice to Indian investors:The research report is distributed by Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),an Indian company and a Securities and ExchangeBoard of India(“SEBI”)registered Stock Broker,Merchant Banker and Research Analyst that,inter alia,produces and distributes research report

175、s covering listedentities on the BSE Limited(“BSE”)and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)(collectively referred to as“Indian Exchanges”).This research report is intended for the recipients only and may not be reproduced or redistributed without the written consent of an authorized signatory of HTISG.Copyright:Haitong International Securities Group Limited 2019.All rights reserved.http:/

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