1、ITF South and Southwest Asia Transport OutlookCase-Specific Policy AnalysisCase-Specific Policy AnalysisITF South and Southwest Asia Transport Outlook The International Transport Forum The International Transport Forum is an intergovernmental organisation with 64 member countries.It acts as a think

2、tank for transport policy and organises the Annual Summit of transport ministers.ITF is the only global body that covers all transport modes.The ITF is politically autonomous and administratively integrated with the OECD.The ITF works for transport policies that improve peoples lives.Our mission is

3、to foster a deeper understanding of the role of transport in economic growth,environmental sustainability and social inclusion and to raise the public profile of transport policy.The ITF organises global dialogue for better transport.We act as a platform for discussion and pre-negotiation of policy

4、issues across all transport modes.We analyse trends,share knowledge and promote exchange among transport decision-makers and civil society.The ITFs Annual Summit is the worlds largest gathering of transport ministers and the leading global platform for dialogue on transport policy.The Members of the

5、 Forum are:Albania,Armenia,Argentina,Australia,Austria,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Belgium,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Bulgaria,Cambodia,Canada,Chile,China(Peoples Republic of),Colombia,Croatia,Czech Republic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,France,Georgia,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Iceland,India,Ireland,Israel,Italy,Japan,Ka

6、zakhstan,Korea,Latvia,Liechtenstein,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malta,Mexico,Republic of Moldova,Mongolia,Montenegro,Morocco,the Netherlands,New Zealand,North Macedonia,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Russian Federation,Serbia,Slovak Republic,Slovenia,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Tunisia,Turkey,Ukraine,the Unit

7、ed Arab Emirates,the United Kingdom,the United States and Uzbekistan.International Transport Forum 2 rue Andr Pascal F-75775 Paris Cedex 16contactitf-oecd.orgwww.itf-oecd.org Case-Specific Policy Analysis Reports The ITFs Case-Specific Policy Analysis series presents topical studies on specific issu

8、es carried out by the ITF in agreement with local institutions.Any findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Transport Forum or the OECD.Neither the OECD,ITF nor the authors guarantee the accuracy

9、of any data or other information contained in this publication and accept no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use.This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the ITF.This document,as well as any data and map included herein,are without prejudice

10、to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Cite this work as:ITF(2022),“ITF South and Southwest Asia Transport Outlook”,International Transport Forum Policy Papers,No.104,OECD Publishi

11、ng,Paris.Acknowledgements This report was written by Vatsalya Sohu,with contributions from Luis Martinez,Orla McCarthy and John Pritchard of the International Transport Forum(ITF)and Azhar Jaimurzina Ducrest,Sandeep Jain and Kuancheng Huang from the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for

12、Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP).Comments from Dr.Rajan Sudesh Ratna and Joseph George from ESCAP South and Southwest Asia Office are gratefully acknowledged.The project was co-ordinated by Wei-Shiuen Ng(ITF),who,along with Mario Barreto(ITF),also contributed to the development and the finalisation of th

13、e draft.Jari Kauppila and Elisabeth Windisch,both of the ITF,reviewed the document.The report was drafted as a part of the“ITF Transport Outlook Special Issues for Asia:Policy Analysis and Implementation”project,which was funded by the United Nations ESCAP as part of the United Nations Development A

14、ccount projects on“Transport and trade connectivity in the age of pandemics:Contactless,seamless and collaborative UN solutions”and“Promoting a shift towards sustainable freight transport in the Asia-Pacific region”.This report is one of three special editions of the ITF Transport Outlook for three

15、sub-regions in Asia,Southeast Asia,South and Southwest Asia,and North and Central Asia.Each report draws upon the modelling framework and outputs from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021,desk research and insights from the ITF-UNESCAP joint capacity building workshop held virtually in October 2021,releva

16、nt ESCAP reports and the Special event on“Transport Connectivity and COVID-19 Pandemic:Pathways for Greater Resilience and Sustainability”,organised during the Fourth Ministerial Conference on Transport held in Bangkok and via videoconference from 14 to 17 December 2021.FOREWORD 4 ITF SOUTH AND SOUT

17、HWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Foreword The project ITF Transport Outlook Special Issues for Asia:Policy Analysis and Implementation was developed jointly by the International Transport Forum and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP).Both organ

18、isations have long collaborated closely and grant each other reciprocal observer status.Funded by ESCAP and carried out by the ITF,this project marks a new high point in this productive partnership.The reports of this joint project will help member countries of both organisations to understand Asias

19、 transport future better.How will demand for passenger mobility and freight transport evolve in the coming decades?What does this mean for transport-related emissions?And what impact could potential disruptions have?The Covid-19 pandemic has underlined the case for much more resilient transport syst

20、ems,which require new and different transport policies.Enhancing governments capacity to identify critical differences in demand projections for passenger and freight transport between countries in different sub-regions in Asia and the rest of the world will help create a sound basis for necessary p

21、olicy shifts.The sub-regions covered by the project are experiencing rapid changes in transport demand,the evolution of mobility services and the provision of transport infrastructure.A primary objective of the work is to provide policy insights that help address the specific challenges in each sub-

22、region and notably improve the sustainability of transport systems.To support the implementation of sustainable transport pathways,the project included capacity-building and training sessions for each sub-region.The analyses also serve as input to priority actions on connectivity in the next phase o

23、f the ESCAP Asia-Pacific Regional Action Programme on Sustainable Transport Connectivity.I look forward to building further on this excellent example of results-oriented collaboration between two leading intergovernmental organisations in the service of their members.Young Tae Kim Secretary-General,

24、International Transport Forum TABLE OF CONTENTS ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 5 Table of contents Executive summaryExecutive summary .7 7 Pathways to decarbonise transport in South and Southwest Asia by 2050Pathways to decarbonise transport in South and Southwest Asia

25、by 2050 .9 9 Reshaping transport in the face of immense population growth and dependence on Reshaping transport in the face of immense population growth and dependence on fossil fuelsfossil fuels .1111 The human dimension:Catering for massive urbanisation.11 The economic dimension:Planning for growt

26、h.14 Selected transport developments in South and Southwest Asia.15 Strategic policy priorities at the national level.18 The trade dimension:Measuring connectivity gaps.25 Freight transport:Managing the tripling of demandFreight transport:Managing the tripling of demand .3030 Non-urban freight trans

27、port:Encouraging the sustainable movement of goods.31 Urban freight transport:Improving efficiencies and fleets.34 Passenger transport:Separating transPassenger transport:Separating transport demand from economic activityport demand from economic activity .3636 Urban passenger transport:Cleaner vehi

28、cle fleets crucial for reducing emissions.38 Non-urban passenger transport:Increasing low-emission vehicles and fuels.43 Conclusions and policy insightsConclusions and policy insights .4747 ReferencesReferences .5151 Annex A.ITF Transport Outlook 202Annex A.ITF Transport Outlook 2021 modelling scena

29、rios:1 modelling scenarios:RecoverRecover,ReshapeReshape,Reshape+Reshape+.5656 Annex B.Freight transport scenario specifications from the Annex B.Freight transport scenario specifications from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021ITF Transport Outlook 2021 .5858 Annex C.Urban passenger transport scenario s

30、pecifications from the Annex C.Urban passenger transport scenario specifications from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021ITF Transport Outlook 2021 .6161 Annex D.NonAnnex D.Non-urban passenger transport scenario specifications from the urban passenger transport scenario specifications from the ITF Transp

31、ort OutlITF Transport Outlook 2021ook 2021 .6464 Figures 1.Summary of transport policy measures for the three 1.Summary of transport policy measures for the three ITF Transport Outlook 2021ITF Transport Outlook 2021 scenariosscenarios .1010 2.Population projections of South and Southwest Asia countr

32、ies to 20502.Population projections of South and Southwest Asia countries to 2050 .1212 3.National population by age(%)in South and Southwest Asia countries,2020 and 203.National population by age(%)in South and Southwest Asia countries,2020 and 205050.1212 4.Population living in urban areas in Sout

33、h and S4.Population living in urban areas in South and Southwest Asia countries,1950outhwest Asia countries,1950-20502050 .1313 5.World Economic 5.World Economic Forum transport infrastructure scores for seven Forum transport infrastructure scores for seven South and Southwest Asia countriesSouth an

34、d Southwest Asia countries .1515 6.The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Liner Shipping Connectivity6.The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Liner Shipping Connectivity Index scores for a selection of countries in South and Southwest Asia,2011Index scores for a selec

35、tion of countries in South and Southwest Asia,2011-1919 .1717 TABLE OF CONTENTS 6 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 7.Impact of distances on reaching global centres of production and consumption for South7.Impact of distances on reaching global centres of production and co

36、nsumption for South and Southwest Asia and Southwest Asia countriescountries .2626 8.Connectivity gap for South and Southwes8.Connectivity gap for South and Southwest Asia countries compared with the Netherlandst Asia countries compared with the Netherlands .2828 9.Fre9.Freight activity for surface,

37、domestic air and sea movements to 2050ight activity for surface,domestic air and sea movements to 2050 .3030 10.Non10.Non-urban freight demand by mode and scenario to 2050urban freight demand by mode and scenario to 2050 .3131 11.Non11.Non-urban freight tankurban freight tank-toto-wheel emissions by

38、 scenario to 2050wheel emissions by scenario to 2050 .3232 12.Non12.Non-urban freight demand and emissions by modal split to 2050urban freight demand and emissions by modal split to 2050 .3333 13.Total urban freight tonne13.Total urban freight tonne-kilometres by scenario to 2050kilometres by scenar

39、io to 2050 .3434 14.Urban freight tank14.Urban freight tank-toto-wheel COwheel CO2 2 emissions by scenario to 2050emissions by scenario to 2050 .3535 15.Passenger activity in South and Southwest Asia by scenario to 205015.Passenger activity in South and Southwest Asia by scenario to 2050 .3636 16.Pa

40、ssenger transport emissions by scenario to 205016.Passenger transport emissions by scenario to 2050 .3737 17.Total tank17.Total tank-toto-wheel emissions for freight and passenger transport by scenario to 2050wheel emissions for freight and passenger transport by scenario to 2050 .3838 18.Urban pass

41、enger demand by mode and scenario for South and Southwest Asia to 205018.Urban passenger demand by mode and scenario for South and Southwest Asia to 2050 .3939 19.Urban passenger emissions by mode and scenario for South and Southwest Asia to 205019.Urban passenger emissions by mode and scenario for

42、South and Southwest Asia to 2050 .4141 20.Difference in average travel time across the radius of a city in 2050 under 20.Difference in average travel time across the radius of a city in 2050 under thethe Reshape+Reshape+scenario compared to the scenario compared to the RecoverRecover scenario,by car

43、 and public transportscenario,by car and public transport .4343 21.Non21.Non-urban passenger demand by mode and scenario to 2050urban passenger demand by mode and scenario to 2050 .4444 22.Non22.Non-urban passenger emissions urban passenger emissions by mode and scenario to 2050by mode and scenario

44、to 2050.4545 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 7 Executive summary What we did This report provides recommendations on how to underpin South and Southwest Asias strategy of economic growth through better connectivity with sustainable transport solutions.T

45、he policy insights are based on three scenarios for future transport demand and associated carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions in the sub-region to 2050.The baseline scenario(Recover)assumes government policies return to business-as-usual after the pandemic.Two other scenarios(Reshape,Reshape+)assume gover

46、nments adopt more ambitious policies after the pandemic.Under Reshape+,governments additionally leverage the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic for transport decarbonisation.The scenarios in this study are a regional drill-down of the forward-looking policy for global transport activity used in the IT

47、F Transport Outlook project.What we found Asias South and Southwest sub-region is responsible for 10%of the CO2 emissions from the global transport sector.Expected economic growth in the sub-region will translate into increased demand for transport and,given transports dependence on fossil fuels,a r

48、ise in emissions associated with transport activity.Modelling results for all three scenarios show that the freight activity in the sub-region will at least triple between 2015 and 2050.However,ambitious policies that focus on decarbonising transport can lead to a 23%decrease in the demand for freig

49、ht transport by 2050,compared to the current trajectory.Demand for passenger transport will increase even more significantly.Under the Recover scenario,where todays policies remain unchanged,it will quadruple between 2015 and 2050.By contrast,it would be 17%lower in 2050 under the policies assumed i

50、n the Reshape+scenario than under Recover assumptions.South and Southwest Asia remains one of the worlds least-connected regions economically despite efforts to enhance the connectivity in the sub-region.In terms of access to global GDP,countries in South and Southwest Asia have connectivity levels

51、of the half,or less than half,than that of most developed economies.Improving road and rail links and overcoming barriers to intra-regional trade will be critical to enhancing connectivity in the region.Increased trade regionalisation,when combined with the measures under Reshape+,can lead to slower

52、 growth in freight activity in the region.A combination of policies ranging from vehicle weight reduction,increased engine efficiency and hybridisation and fuel economy and CO2 emission standards for road freight to battery electric and hybrid hydrogen and fuel cell traction systems for the rail sec

53、tor can help substantially reduce the carbon dependency of freight transport.Under all scenarios,the demand for non-urban passenger transport in 2050 will remain considerably greater than for urban passenger transport.Non-urban passenger transport is more challenging to decarbonise than urban mobili

54、ty.Making passenger transport between and outside cities more sustainable requires a paradigm shift in transport policy.To take transport decarbonisation to a new level,governments could specifically aim to lock in the unforeseen emissions reductions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.The sub-regions g

55、rowth in rail transport reflects the prioritisation of planned investment in the development of rail infrastructure,to move towards cleaner transport.The increased use of private vehicles and rising activity in urban freight in cities will lead to congested urban areas.It is essential for policy mak

56、ers to anticipate such adverse effects and design policies that are more resilient to unforeseen events in the future.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 What we recommend Target road freight to achieve significant reductions in transport COTarget road fr

57、eight to achieve significant reductions in transport CO2 2 emissionsemissions The emissions from road freight transport are projected to almost double in 2050,under the current policy ambitions.Enacting ambitious policies,such as those under the Reshape+scenario,can bring down the emissions from the

58、 road freight sector by 62%in 2050,as compared to what could be the resultant emissions under Recover.Some of these include an ambitious energy transition for long-haul heavy-duty road freight vehicles,strict fuel economy and CO2 emissions standards,aerodynamic retrofits,reduced-rolling resistance o

59、f tyres,vehicle weight reduction,increased engine efficiency,and hybridisation.In urban areas,freight emissions more than double under the Recover scenario.Targeted policies that tackle freight emissions in the cities will be crucial to avoid this from happening.Accelerate aviations technology and f

60、ueAccelerate aviations technology and fuel transition to reduce emissionsl transition to reduce emissions While significant reductions are achievable in road,bus and rail transport under the non-urban passenger sector,it is the aviation sector that is hard-to-abate.Under the two Reshape scenarios,hy

61、brid and all-electric aircraft become commercially viable in the coming decades.These technological developments can push down the cost of synthetic fuels,making them more commercially viable in the future.Pushing for the adoption of alternative fuels in aviation would decrease emissions in the shor

62、t term and boost innovation in the longer term.Reduce urban transports carbon footprint by leveraging public transport and active modes post the Reduce urban transports carbon footprint by leveraging public transport and active modes post the pandemicpandemic With the changes seen in the travel patt

63、erns after the Covid-19 crisis,proactive measures are necessary to reverse the impact of negative externalities,especially in the cities of the sub-region.Ensuring the safety,reliability and availability of public transport will be essential to minimise the negative environmental impacts.Investing i

64、n public transport and active modes will have to be prioritised over developing new infrastructure for private vehicles.Link decarbonisation and regional connectivity to develop resilient transportLink decarbonisation and regional connectivity to develop resilient transport sectorssectors The recove

65、ry from the Covid-19 pandemic can be leveraged as an opportunity to implement targeted policies to improve connectivity in the region and enhance transport sustainability.Building resilience in the sub-regions transport sector to deal with dynamic and unpredictable situations would be critical.This

66、can be done through a mix of policy options,including increasing capacity for planning and crisis response through enhanced co-operation among stakeholders,harmonising border procedures among countries,advancing towards digitalisation of processes and climate-proofing transport infrastructure.Establ

67、ish coherent freight reforms for sustainable outcomesEstablish coherent freight reforms for sustainable outcomes To mainstream sustainability considerations in freight transport planning,gathering,storing and analysing transport statistics would be crucial,an element that is lacking in the sub-regio

68、n currently.Transport technologies can contribute immensely to the enhancement of freight sustainability in multifarious ways,including the improved capacity of the network,traffic management,reliability,energy efficiency and lower operating costs.Governments need to create a coherent framework of e

69、conomic and regulatory incentives and penalties to align economic objectives with sustainability goals.Including freight transport emissions in carbon-pricing schemes is a critical instrument that policy makers have at their disposal to foster a green transition.PATHWAYS TO DECARBONISE TRANSPORT IN

70、SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA BY 2050 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 9 Pathways to decarbonise transport in South and Southwest Asia by 2050 The South and Southwest Asia sub region accounted for a quarter of the total world population in 2020.This proportion is only expected

71、 to increase in the coming decades to 2050.Population growth,along with augmenting consumption,also leads to increased emissions.A priority for the sub-region is addressing this rise in emissions and ensuring that socio-economic improvements are achieved.Transport is an important sector for the coun

72、tries in the sub-region,not only because of the role it plays in physically connecting people and markets and as a facilitator of economic growth and social development but also for its relevance for oil demand and contribution to emissions.Countries in South and Southwest Asia had been scaling up t

73、heir ambitions and actions to combat climate change in the last few years,yet the Covid-19 pandemic has strongly affected the transport sector and the connectivity landscape in the sub-region.It has also highlighted areas that can be“built back better”,especially,for example,advancing national and r

74、egional initiatives that support the environmental sustainability of freight transport operations.South and Southwest Asia is defined according to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacifics(ESCAP)categorisation of the South and Southwest Asia sub-region in this repor

75、t.This includes Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Bhutan,India,Islamic Republic of Iran,the Maldives,Nepal,Pakistan,Sri Lanka and Turkey.Nine out of the ten countries in the sub-region have submitted Nationally Determined Contributions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)under t

76、he Paris Agreement.This report presents future demand scenarios of passenger mobility,freight volumes and the associated transport emissions to 2050 for this sub-region.These scenarios assess potential impacts of future transport activity on climate change through detailed carbon dioxide(CO2)emissio

77、ns projections under different conditions.The ITF models used for the Transport Outlook are demand-based models that show what could be possible under certain policy scenarios,using policies that are already committed as the baseline.These ITF models are global,and as such,there are limitations to h

78、ow granular the results presented can be.Model outputs are therefore reported at the sub-regional level,except for analysis conducted for specific projects,such as those shown in the connectivity section.For the most recent ITF Transport Outlook(ITF,2021),three scenarios were considered,Recover,Resh

79、ape and Reshape+.These are described in detail in Annex A,with the specific policies for each of the transport models in Annexes B,C and D all of which are extracted from the original Outlook 2021.Figure 1.gives a high-level summary of the three.PATHWAYS TO DECARBONISE TRANSPORT IN SOUTH AND SOUTHWE

80、ST ASIA BY 2050 10 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Figure Figure 1 1.Summary of transport policy measures for the three Summary of transport policy measures for the three ITF Transport Outlook 2021ITF Transport Outlook 2021 scenarios scenarios The Recover scenario is the

81、 baseline in terms of policy measures.Under Recover,it is assumed that transport trends return to levels seen prior to the pandemic by 2025.It also assumes that only pre-existing planned or committed policies are implemented,so there are no additional policies that build on the pandemic experience.F

82、rom a policy perspective,this could be considered the business-as-usual scenario.Under Reshape,transport trends are again assumed to have returned to their pre-pandemic levels by 2025,and it is assumed that significantly more ambitious policies to decarbonise transport will be implemented.This scena

83、rio is considered“transformational”.It assumes policy measures that“encourage changes in the behaviour of transport users,uptake of cleaner energy and vehicle technologies,digitalisation to improve transport efficiency,and infrastructure investment to help meet environmental and social development g

84、oals.”(ITF,2021b).Measures such as carbon pricing or port fees would be assumed to be more stringent,while the attractiveness of more sustainable modes would be increased.The improved attractiveness would be due to assumed lower penalties for multimodal interchanges,greater investment in infrastruct

85、ure and services,more efficient operations(through asset sharing in freight,for example)and broader uptake of innovative transport solutions and alternative fuels or power.Reshape+is the most ambitious of the three scenarios.It assumes that“governments seize decarbonisation opportunities created by

86、the pandemic,which reinforce the policy efforts in Reshape.”(ITF,2021).Under Reshape+,any reductions in transport demand observed during the pandemic broadly continue,with a more ambitious policy package also being implemented.This report can support countries in the sub-region in developing their p

87、olicy pathways to achieve decarbonisation objectives and to improve future strategies for the transport sector.It also highlights the major transport sector trends and the strategic and policy priorities that the countries in the sub-region are currently focusing on,especially decarbonisation object

88、ives.RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 11 Reshaping transport in the face of immense population growth and dependence on fossil fuels With two billion people,South and Southwest As

89、ias population accounted for 25%of the world population in 2020(UNDESA,2019).The sub-region is also responsible for 10%of the CO2 emissions from the transport sector globally.The expectation of rapid growth in population and gross domestic product,combined with growing energy needs,implies that the

90、South and Southwest Asian region will play a significant role in the global efforts to mitigate climate change.The share of fossil fuels in total energy consumption has been rising sharply in the sub-region over the last three decades,while it has been comparatively stable globally and among develop

91、ing country groups.This threatens to drive up the sub-regions greenhouse gas(GHG)emission rates.Though all sub-regional countries have set ambitious targets for renewable energy generation,a reversal in the growth of non-renewable energy consumption is unlikely in the short term because of the sub-r

92、egions huge energy supply deficits.With its traditional dependency on fossil fuels and low penetration of electrified vehicles,the transport sector may remain a major source of emissions,even against a potential rise in the share of renewable energy in the sub-regional countries(UNESCAP,2021a).The h

93、uman dimension:Catering for massive urbanisation The population for South and Southwest Asia is expected to grow by 23%between 2020 and 2050(UNDESA,2019),reaching an estimated 2.5 billion people(Figure 2).The highest absolute increase during the period is expected to come from the population growth

94、in India,while the highest growth rate is experienced by Afghanistan at 66%.This is followed by Pakistan,which is expected to have a population growth rate of 53%between 2020 and 2050.The Islamic Republic of Iran expects a growth rate of 23%and Nepal 21%.India,Bhutan,Bangladesh and Turkey(in that or

95、der)are expected to have a growth rate estimated between 15-19%over the same period.The countries with the lowest expected population growth in the sub-region are the Maldives(at 8%)and Sri Lanka(at 2%).This population growth in the sub-region is expected to have implications for transport policies

96、in the coming decades.More people requiring mobility will place greater pressure on public transport infrastructures,for example.The age distribution of the population is also important to consider when developing transport policies.As the population ages,there is a decline in the labour force.This,

97、in turn,influences the transport demand itself and the composition of the types of trips taken(Murdock et al.,2015).Importantly,while an older population travels less than a younger population,other needs should be met while undertaking transport planning for an ageing population;road safety and acc

98、essibility are some of the major ones(Bcker,van Amen and Helbich,2017;Shrestha et al.,2017).The share of people aged over 64 years is estimated to more than double from 6%to 14%between 2020 and 2050 in South and Southwest Asia(Figure 3).In 2050,the regions projected to have the highest populations a

99、ged over 64 years are the Maldives(at 25%)and Bhutan(23%).However,the entire sub-region has the advantage of starting with a relatively large proportion(36%)of the population aged under 19 years in 2020.For example,40-54%of people in Afghanistan,Pakistan and Nepal were aged under 19 years in 2020.RE

100、SHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS 12 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Figure Figure 2 2.Population projections of SouthPopulation projections of South and Southand Southw westest Asia countries to 2050Asia countries

101、 to 2050 Note:Data are according to the medium-variant projections.Source:Adapted from UNDESA(2019),Population Division World Population Prospects 2019(database),https:/population.un.org/wpp/.Figure Figure 3 3.National population by age(%)in South and SouthNational population by age(%)in South and S

102、outhw west Asia countries,2020 and 2050est Asia countries,2020 and 2050 Note:Data are according to the medium-variant projections.Source:Adapted from UNDESA(2019),Population Division World Population Prospects 2019(database),https:/population.un.org/wpp/.RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS P

103、OPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 13 Of the estimated growth to 2.5 billion people by 2050,almost 1.3 billion are expected to be urban based,accounting for 55%of the total population of the sub-region(UNDESA,2018).All ten cou

104、ntries in the sub-region are expected to experience a rise in their urban population,as shown in Figure 4.Indias urban population,alone,will account for 13%of the total world population.Despite this,India will not have the largest relative population growth from its current numbers.Between 2020-50,t

105、he countries in the sub-region that will have the largest growth in their respective urban populations are Afghanistan(157%),Nepal(117%),and Pakistan(107%).Bangladesh follows at 82%and India at 81%.The countries with the lowest urban population growth in the sub-region will be Sri Lanka,the Maldives

106、,Bhutan,Turkey and Iran,following that order,which expect growth rates between 27-67%,over the same period.Figure Figure 4 4.Population living in urban areas in South and SouthPopulation living in urban areas in South and Southw westest Asia countries,1950Asia countries,1950-20502050 Source:Adapted

107、from UNDESA(2018),World Urbanization Prospects:The 2018 Revision(database),https:/population.un.org/wup/.The tremendous rise in population and urbanisation in the coming decades will inevitably raise the demand for transport within the countries and across the sub-region.Already,the transport sector

108、 is the highest GHG emitting sector after electricity generation in the sub-region(ADB,2013).Therefore,the transport sector will have to create policies that mitigate this further expected rise in CO2 emissions.In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic,policy makers are presented with an opportunity

109、 to rethink mobility,especially in cities,build back better and establish a new paradigm that would enable the transport sector to be greener,more inclusive and more resilient.RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS 14 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA

110、 TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 The economic dimension:Planning for growth South and Southwest Asias economy was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic.However,it recovers as the global demand continues to rebound.Focused containment measures in the sub-region help to minimise the economic impact of the

111、 subsequent variants and waves of the pandemic(World Bank,2021c).Economic growth in the sub-region before Covid-19 was largely driven by Bangladesh and India.They averaged a 7%growth between 2014-19(ADB,2019).Countries such as Nepal and Bhutan also had high growth rates of above 6%on average.Growth

112、rates in Sri Lanka and Pakistan were also above developing countries average.Economic reforms and other measures to facilitate ease of doing business across most of the countries in the sub-region have helped induce foreign investment.For most of 2020,the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted life across the

113、globe.The combination of health and economic shocks harmed the livelihoods of millions of households,disrupted business activities and highlighted existing fault lines in the sub-region.However,several countries have started to bounce back by increased trade demand from outside the region,speed-up o

114、f vaccination drives and focused safety measures.The UNESCAPs forecasts 0.6%to 9.9%growth in real GDP for sub-region economies for the fiscal year 2021-22(UNESCAP,2021b).India,the largest economy in the sub-region,expects public investment to boost domestic demand and incentive schemes to strengthen

115、 manufacturing which will generate real GDP growth of 7%in the year 2021-22.Bangladesh expects even higher growth of 7.2%real GDP,as exports and private consumption continue to recoup.With a strong bounce back in the tourism sector,the real GDP in the Maldives is projected to grow by 9.9%in 2021,mak

116、ing it the highest expected growth in the sub-region.Sri Lankas real GDP is projected to grow by 4.3%in 2021,with import restrictions,elevated food prices and shortages dampening the economic outlook.Growing at a lower rate is Pakistans real GDP,at 1.5%.The return of migrant labour and investment in

117、 infrastructure projects in Bhutan projects an increase in the real GDP to 3.5%.In Nepal,the real GDP is expected to grow by 0.6%,with a slight push from the domestic vaccination drive as well as restoration of tourism and migrant worker flow.Irans economy bounced back moderately in 2020-21,compared

118、 to two previous years of recession.A steady recovery in global demand and Covid-19 measures contributed to stronger growth in the oil and manufacturing sectors.The UNESCAP projects real GDP growth for Iran to be 4.6%for 2021(UNESCAP,2021b).Turkeys economy is expected to rebound in 2021 with an esti

119、mated real GDP growth of 3.8%.The recent political situation in Afghanistan has exacerbated the existing economic challenges in the country.In the aftermath of the political crisis,the country has seen a further acceleration in inflation,which points to the depreciation of the currency and hoarding

120、and disruptions to international trade(World Bank,2021e).The United Nations Development Programmes(UNDP)projections for the impact on real GDP in Afghanistan,under different scenarios(varying by the intensity of the crisis),range from a 3.6%decrease to a 13.2%decrease for the year 2021(UNDP,2021).Di

121、fferent countries in the sub-region are expected to recover from the pandemic at different paces.The pandemic impacted people around the world,but the lower-income groups tend to be the hardest hit.Based on Gross National Income(GNI)per capita,in 2020,eight out of the ten countries in the South and

122、Southwest Asia region were classified as lower middle-income groups in the World Bank Atlas Method(World Bank,2020).The impact of the Covid-19 crisis in these countries would be more acute than others,especially for sectors with big informal economies,such as transport.In the aftermath of the pandem

123、ic,it is essential for countries in the sub-region to implement inclusive recovery policies in these sectors that protect workers and businesses and boost the provision of public services while ensuring that these plans are resilient to future uncertainties.RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOU

124、S POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 15 Selected transport developments in South and Southwest Asia Before the Covid-19 pandemic,South and Southwest Asia had been one of the fastest-growing sub-regions in the world,pushing th

125、e worlds economic centre of gravity to the East.Despite this growth,the transport connectivity gaps have always been and remain a serious challenge for the sub-region to achieve more profound development.When compared with Southeast Asia,this sub-region lacks sound business environments and supply c

126、hains for high value-added products.The situation is particularly serious for the three landlocked countries in the sub-region,Afghanistan,Bhutan,and Nepal.According to UNESCAPs estimations,if trade costs in South Asia can be brought down to the levels enjoyed by the Association of Southeast Asian N

127、ations(ASEAN)countries,intra-regional trade could increase by nearly 11%,more than three times what would accrue from the elimination of tariffs(UNESCAP,2017).Better connectivity across the sub-region and beyond can certainly harness the sub-regions strategic location to re-emerge as the hub of Euro

128、pe and Central Asias trade with East Asia(UNESCAP,2012).Insufficient transport infrastructure is one of the major causes of low connectivity within the sub-region.No South and Southwest Asia country is within the top 50 among 141 countries in terms of transport infrastructure according to the World

129、Economic Forum(WEF)global competitiveness report(WEF,2019).Turkey(ranked 61st)and India(ranked 68th)are the two with a relatively better overall score.Three countries have a ranking beyond one hundred,Bangladesh ranks 105th,Nepal 108th,and Pakistan 110th.Meanwhile,the three countries(Afghanistan,Bhu

130、tan,and the Maldives)not included in the evaluation are also believed to have significant room for improvement.The WEF transport infrastructure score includes eight sub-indicators on road,rail,sea,and air transport infrastructure.These are road connectivity,quality of road infrastructure,railroad de

131、nsity,the efficiency of train services,airport connectivity,the efficiency of air transport services,liner shipping connectivity and efficiency of seaport services,for which the scores of the South and Southwest Asia countries are illustrated in Figure 5.The data for Afghanistan,Bangladesh and Bhuta

132、n are unavailable for these indicators.Figure Figure 5 5.World Economic Forum transport infrastructure scores for seven World Economic Forum transport infrastructure scores for seven South and SouthSouth and Southw west Asia countries est Asia countries Source:Adapted from World Economic Forum(2019)

133、The Global Competitiveness Report 2019.RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS 16 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 South and Southwest Asias major air and maritime routes are generally connected to global transport netw

134、orks,prioritising the European market.In contrast,the road and railway routes between neighbouring countries are relatively underdeveloped.This absence of connectivity creates high intra-regional trade costs,undermines the benefits of geographical proximity,and poses crucial barriers for landlocked

135、countries to participate in global supply chains.Private sectors have been active in developing and managing infrastructures for maritime shipping and aviation.However,the land-based transport infrastructures still require substantial involvement from governments and international organisations.The

136、networks of Asian Highways and Trans-Asian Railways are an advantage to road and rail connectivity in South and Southwest Asia.Network improvement measures have been included in the national transport plans of many countries in the sub-region as soon as they were announced.Among the initiatives rela

137、ted to the Asian Highways,the Turkey Iran Pakistan India Bangladesh Myanmar(TIPI-BM)Road Corridor is particularly relevant to this sub-region.Given its critical coverage,it would become Asias Southern silk highway(UNESCAP,2018).As for the Trans-Asian Railways,the Istanbul Tehran Islamabad Delhi Kolk

138、ata Dhaka-Yangon(ITI-DKD-Y)Container Rail Corridor opens the possibility of new cost-effective transport options.Compared with existing rail alternatives,the ITI-DKD-Y Corridor can lead to an estimated USD 1 122 cost reduction per container(twenty-foot equivalent unit),potentially halving the curren

139、t costs under modest assumptions(UNESCAP,2019c).These corridors can also vertically connect the landlocked developing countries of this sub-region as well as those in Central and North Asia.The improved connectivity will stimulate the economic activities of the lagging areas and help to re-emerge th

140、e sub-regions strategic hub role.All coastal countries in South and Southwest Asia are now linked by direct shipping services or by transshipment through hub ports.Shipping connectivity has increased significantly in a couple of South and Southwest Asian countries.The United Nations Conference on Tr

141、ade and Development(UNCTAD)Liner Shipping Connectivity Index for 2011-19 measures increases for counties such as Sri Lanka(from 40.1 to 62.1)and Turkey(from 41.6 to 51.5)(World Bank,no date).These countries act as regional hubs based on their larger shipping capacity and wider service coverage.On th

142、e other hand,the increases for other countries tend to be mild,for example,India(from 48.9 to 55.5)and Pakistan(from 31.2 to 34.1),as seen in Figure 6.Access to seaports for the landlocked countries remains challenging,given that the transit operations in the sub-region are far from seamless.Several

143、 countries in South and Southwest Asia expanded their air transport services impressively between 2011-19.The following countries doubled their air passengers:India(from 74.0 to 167.5 million),Turkey(from 53.5 to 111.1 million),and Bangladesh(from 2.02 to 6.26 million)(World Bank,no date).These incr

144、eases are mainly from investments made into new and existing airports and increased flight frequencies significantly attributed to the entry of low-cost carriers.In contrast,the number of air passengers only increased at a mild rate in other countries in the sub-region.Air cargo operations were stab

145、le in most countries of the sub-region during 2011-19,without any substantial growth.Nonetheless,Turkey has made remarkable progress,with its air cargo volume increasing from 1 544 million tonne-kilometre to 6 815 million tonne-kilometre(World Bank,no date).This achievement was mainly due to the lon

146、g-term effort of building infrastructure in Istanbul to make it a hub between Asia and Europe.Air links are particularly important for landlocked and island countries.To further develop the aviation sector in this sub-region,particularly in remote areas,the liberalisation of air services should be c

147、onsidered.The liberalisation of air travel as well as air freight services through the ASEAN Single Aviation Market has demonstrated the effect of open-sky policies on facilitating the flow of tourism and business.RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL

148、 FUELS ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 17 Figure Figure 6 6.The United Nations Conference on Trade and The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Liner Shipping Connectivity Index Development Liner Shipping Connectivity Index scores for a selection of countri

149、es in South and Southscores for a selection of countries in South and Southw west Asia,2011est Asia,2011-1919 Source:Adapted from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(2021)UNCTAD STAT,available at:https:/unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=92 In addition t

150、o the above individual transport modes,multimodal connectivity is crucial for both operational efficiency and emission reductions in the sub-region.The network of dry ports already in existence can increase the operational efficiency of the highway and railway networks,extending their reach to wider

151、 areas and facilitating their integration with the sub-regions sea ports and other transport modes(UNESCAP,2019b).South and Southwest Asia has the greatest number of dry ports in the sub-regions of Asia.It has 73 existing dry ports and 39 listed as potential opportunities.Countries such as Afghanist

152、an,Bhutan,Nepal,and Pakistan,as well as the inland parts of India,can greatly benefit from the enhanced connectivity through dry ports(UNESCAP,2019b).These countries can draw on ESCAPs Intergovernmental Agreement on Dry Ports which provides a uniform definition of a dry port of international importa

153、nce,identifies the network of existing and potential dry ports,and proposes guiding principles for their development and operation.As of 2019,the Agreement has 14 Parties and covers 226 dry ports.The growing population and fast urbanisation in this sub-region have necessitated a substantial rise in

154、mobility.For example,Indias passenger transport activity grew by 122%between 2010 and 2019(UNESCAP,2021c).To accommodate the growing mobility needs,private vehicle ownership has continued to grow,but many countries have also launched various public transport projects,including mass transit systems i

155、n urban areas.Designing urban transport systems that are inclusive,accessible,safe,and environmentally sustainable remains a great challenge for many countries in the sub-region.Some of the factors that have contributed to this outcome include a lack of land use and transport integration,institution

156、al fragmentation,budgetary constraints due to other urgent needs for public funds,and the existence of faster and more affordable informal paratransit operators.RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS 18 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTL

157、OOK OECD/ITF 2022 Globally,the transport sector was one of the hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.Despite reduced transport demand,many transport systems,such as ports and inland transshipment hubs,are facing severe traffic congestion.Lockdowns,shortage of labour,and quarantine measures have led t

158、o operational delays and a decrease in capacity and service frequency.Unfortunately,such disruptions are more severe in countries and sub-regions with weak logistic performance,such as South and Southwest Asia.Additionally,a heavy reliance on road transport for inland cross-border traffic denies the

159、 advantages of inter-modal shifts to rail systems(UNESCAP,2021c).Creating policy priorities for resilient cargo transport is a critical issue of the post-Covid-19 new normal.Strategic policy priorities at the national level The priorities,opportunities and challenges of South and Southwest Asian tra

160、nsport sectors differ greatly between countries.Many countries are landlocked,especially the least-developed countries(Afghanistan,Bhutan and Nepal).Their major trade is largely with the neighbouring country India and making transport connectivity,especially road,is one of their highest transport po

161、licy priorities.While some countries have been focusing on enhancing the uptake of electric vehicles(EVs)and sustainability of transport infrastructure,others still have a focus on improving road connectivity in rural and remote areas.This section outlines some of the strategic policy priorities for

162、 the countries in the sub-region.The sub-regions transport sector has continued to receive development aid from institutions such as the International Development Agency(IDA),the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development(IBRD)and the International Finance Corporation for a multitude of p

163、rojects(World Bank,2021b).The sub-region here refers to the World Banks definition for this particular publication and includes Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Bhutan,India,the Maldives,Nepal,Pakistan and Sri Lanka.The focus of these projects has been wide-ranging and reflects the transport priorities that c

164、ountries are focusing on.Aid to Afghanistans transport sector has focused on improving road conditions and traffic flow.Bhutan and the Maldives have both received some IDA financing which targets green development.Bangladesh and Nepal have received IDA and IBRD aid for the expansion and improvement

165、of road networks to enhance transport connectivity.For Pakistan,the aid received focuses on improvements in port operations,and for Sri Lanka,a significant portion has been targeted at sustainable transport infrastructure.India has become increasingly prominent in the International Finance Corporati

166、ons(IFCs)investment portfolio,with projects supporting integrated transport systems.These aid projects indicate the main priorities of the countries in the sub-region,where enhanced transport connectivity,improved road networks,sustainable transport infrastructure are some of the common goals.Moving

167、 towards sustainable transport systems Countries in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region have been scaling-up their ambitions and actions to combat climate change in the last few years.Globally,reducing the CO2 emissions from the transport sector has been one of the focus areas of these ambitions

168、.A push to electrify transport,which is one of the main end-use sectors of energy,is a common goal across some of the countries.The following section enumerates some of these plans in detail.Bangladeshs national development plans have a specialised focus on the transport sector.Its Seventh Five-Year

169、 Plan from 2016-20 targeted the continued development of the transport sector,recognising that it has an important role in connecting people and firms to markets and to social opportunities(ADB,RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS ITF SOUTH AND

170、 SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 19 2020b).In its first Nationally Determined Contribution(NDC),Bangladesh pledged to reduce GHG emissions from the power,transport and industry sectors by 5%by 2030 in comparison to a national business as usual scenario(Climate Analytics,2019a).In 2021

171、,Bangladesh updated the NDCs,separating the three sectors and proposing a 12%GHG emission reduction by 2030 as the unconditional contribution from the transport sector.Furthermore,transport sector priorities in the National Sustainable Development Strategy 2010-21 include expansion and renewal of th

172、e railway network,maintenance of the existing road infrastructure,and the development of rural transport infrastructure by integrating road and inland water transport and improving channel and waterway conditions(Dietrich,2020).The Strategic Transport Plan(STP)for Dhaka focusing on developing mass t

173、ransportation will provide affordable,inclusive,safe transport modes for mobility.The construction of five Mass Rapid Transit(MRT)lines and one Bus Rapid Transit(BRT)line is in progress.Bhutan is prioritising the development of a safe,affordable,efficient,sustainable,and inclusive transport system i

174、n its 12th Five Year Plan and beyond.The government pledged to remain carbon neutral at the 15th Conference of Parties(COP)to the UNFCCC,which was reiterated through its Intended NDC submitted in September 2015.Bhutan also adopted the Bali Declaration on Vision Three Zeros Zero Congestion,Zero Pollu

175、tion,and Zero Accidents towards Next Generation Transport Systems in Asia in April 2013 during the Seventh Regional Environmentally Sustainable Transport Forum in Asia.The government aims for approximately 300 internal combustion engine taxis to be replaced by electric taxis and a network of chargin

176、g stations to be established in all 20 districts of the country by the end of 2022.The government has continued investment in urban transport systems and introduced a BRT system in Thimphu and other major urban centres.The government is working on a comprehensive National Surface Transport Policy to

177、 flag the emerging priorities for the transport sector while addressing climate change.India announced at the UNFCCC COP26 that it will achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070 and will reduce the total projected carbon emissions by one billion tonnes between 2021 and 2030.Additionally,the carbon i

178、ntensity of the economy would be reduced to less than 45%by 2030.Indias policies that aim to decarbonise the transport sector can be broadly categorised into three groups:travel demand and modal choice management,energy efficiency,and diversification towards low-carbon energy vectors.Indias NDC incl

179、udes measures that are directly related to travel demand and modal choice management,aiming to foster economic competitiveness and the relevance of energy-efficient modes,such as public transport,rail and waterborne transport(MOEFCC,2016).Indian Railways aims to become the largest green railway in t

180、he world and is moving towards becoming a net-zero carbon emitter by 2030.Indian Railways Dedicated Freight Corridors are being developed as a low-carbon green transportation network under a long-term low carbon roadmap.Several policies and programmes in the country focus on enhancing the energy eff

181、iciency of transport systems,including pushing for EV uptake and transitioning to low-carbon electricity(especially for light vehicles and passenger cars),and more recently,other low carbon transport fuels(ITF,2021a).Notably,the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways of India has formulated the Veh

182、icle Scrappage Policy to enable the phasing out of old polluting vehicles and their replacement with fuel efficient,environment-friendly,new generation vehicles.The government has formulated standards that match global standards,to better enable manufacturing and adoption of EVs.Furthermore,the Nati

183、onal Policy on Biofuels(2018)aims to increase the usage of biofuels in the transportation sectors in the country.The Maldives has a net-zero emissions target by 2030,one of the most ambitious targets for an island nation.For the transport sector,it has planned to implement a zero-emission inter-city

184、 public transport system comprised of EVs.The government will also strengthen the legal framework governing the RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS 20 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 maritime sector to ensure inter

185、national standards on quality,safety,compliance and protection of the natural environment.Nepal,smaller than most countries in the sub-region,and landlocked,is considering import substitution,energy security and reliability of energy supply(UKAid,2020).This provides an opportunity for promoting low-

186、carbon solutions in the transport sector.Nepal is committed to the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and has mainstreamed Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)in national policies and plans.It aims to reduce GHG emissions from the transport sector by 28%by 2030,as reflected in the

187、 updated NDCs to the Paris Agreement.Nepals National Sustainable Transport Strategy runs to 2040and aims to develop a transport system that is efficient,accessible,affordable,reliable,safe,inclusive,environmentally friendly,and climate and disaster-resilient(UNCRD,2015).The strategy promotes a shift

188、 to the“avoid,shift and improve approach”,which discourages unnecessary travel and supports reduced trip distances.Broadly,it encourages a shift towards more sustainable transport modes,especially within the public transport system,and encourages the adoption of cleaner technologies to support the g

189、oal.Box 1.Decarbonising Transport in Emerging Economies and Box 1.Decarbonising Transport in Emerging Economies and the Nationally Determined Contributionthe Nationally Determined Contribution Transport Initiative for Asia Transport Initiative for Asia The ITFs Decarbonising Transport in India strea

190、m of work includes two projects,namely,Decarbonising Transport in Emerging Economies(DTEE)project and the Nationally Determined Contribution Transport Initiative for Asia(NDC-TIA)project.The DTEE project helps the government of India to identify ways to reduce their transport CO2 emissions and meet

191、their climate goals,https:/www.itf-oecd.org/dtee-india.The project supports transport decarbonisation in Argentina,Azerbaijan,India,and Morocco through the development and the provision of a framework allowing the quantitative assessment of transport mitigation actions while also facilitating policy

192、 dialogue across all relevant stakeholders.The ITF is developing a life cycle assessment(LCA)tool that will help India to implement ambitious CO2 reduction initiatives for its transport sector.The project also includes capacity building activities such as training and stakeholder workshops,ensuring

193、that partner institutions can work increasingly independently when revising nationally determined contribution(NDC)commitments in the five-year review cycle.The NDC Transport Initiative for Asia(NDC-TIA)supports the Peoples Republic of China,India and Viet Nam to define policies that may enable them

194、 to meet the objectives of their NDCs,https:/www.itf-oecd.org/ndc-transport-initiative-asia.The focus is to increase capacity to take mitigative action against GHG emissions in the transport sector.In particular,the ITF involvement in the NDC-TIA India project will leverage the LCA developed in the

195、DTEE India project to help local research and academic institutions support the government in the definition of GHG emission mitigation policies in transport.The DTEE and the NDC-TIA projects are funded by the International Climate Initiative(IKI)of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment,Na

196、ture Conservation and Nuclear Safety(BMU).As such,the authors would like to thank BMU for supporting this project.RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 21 The Nepalese government has r

197、educed import taxes for EVs and plans to have up to 90%of all private passenger vehicles electric by 2030.The government is also procuring 200 electric buses to operate in Kathmandu and the Nepal Electric Authority is developing 500 charging stations in Kathmandu and already planning to install some

198、 beyond the capital.The private sector is already operating a fleet of electric buses and minibuses in Kathmandu and has installed 80 fast and slow charging stations and plans to expand service to other cities.Pakistan,in recent years,has focused on air pollutant emission reduction and improved air

199、quality as well as developing climate resilient infrastructure.The National Climate Change Policy(2012)addresses the impact of climate change by promoting the development and adoption of environmentally friendly transport technologies and fuels,as well as other carbon reduction strategies(Government

200、 of Pakistan,2012).The National Transport Policy of Pakistan(2018)guides the overall development of the transport sector with the vision to provide safe,affordable,efficient,durable and environmentally friendly means of transport(Government of Pakistan,2018).Several other plans and programmes have b

201、een put in place to achieve the sustainable mobility targets of the country.The Green Line bus service programme,comprised of 80 hybrid buses,started in Karachi in January 2022 and there are plans to revive the Karachi circular railway as well.The government has developed the National Electric Vehic

202、le Policy with targets and incentives aimed at seeing EVs capture 30%of all the passenger vehicle and heavy-duty truck sales by 2030 and 90%by 2040.It sets even more ambitious goals for two-and three-wheelers and buses;50%of new sales by 2030 and 90%by 2040(Uddin,2020).In Sri Lanka,much like the oth

203、er countries in the sub-region,roads act as the backbone of the countrys passenger transport sector.The transport Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action(NAMA)programme for Sri Lanka focuses on the introduction and adoption of electric buses instead of conventionally fuelled buses in the planned BR

204、T system in the Colombo Metropolitan Area(UNDP,2016).This would help the country address the objectives of reducing GHG emissions and achieving its SDGs,such as increased energy security,improved access to transport,improved air quality and local job creation.The NAMA is also aligned with the countr

205、ys national and regional objectives of promotion and adoption of EVs.This commitment is mentioned in numerous policy documents,including the countrys Intended NDC to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)Secretariat,as well as its National Transport Policy and Urban Transp

206、ort Master Plan.Initial steps have been taken towards e-mobility through a feasibility study on Developing Green and Smart Urban Transport System in Colombo city.In 2021,Sri Lankas State Minister for Renewable Energy also announced plans to produce 70%of the electricity from renewable energy by 2030

207、.Like several other countries in the sub-region,Turkey is highly dependent on fossil imports and its energy demand is set to increase in the future.Turkey has taken steps towards decarbonising both the road and rail passenger transport sector.For example,Turkish climate policy includes the objective

208、 of developing and promoting alternative fuels and clean vehicle technologies and also aims at manufacturing its own EVs by 2022(Climate Analytics,2019b).In accordance with the UN SDGs,Turkey is developing policies and strategies for providing innovative,sustainable,smart,and integrated mobility tha

209、t focuses on accessibility and is inclusive for all segments of society.Turkey has instituted plans focused on emissions standards,biofuel targets,encouraging modal share shift,e-mobility and taxation on fuels to advance towards its sustainability targets for the transport sector.Air pollution,parti

210、cularly in cities,is becoming an increasingly alarming issue in the sub-region,with 46 Indian cities,6 Pakistani cities and 4 Bangladeshi cities appearing in the 100 most polluted cities in the world in 2020,according to the concentration of PM2.5(IQAir,2020).In India,1.67 million deaths were RESHAP

211、ING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS 22 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 attributable to air pollution in 2019,accounting for 17.8%of the total deaths in the country(Pandey et al.,2021).The sub-region must co-operate and c

212、o-ordinate regionally to manage this crisis.Enhancing sustainable transport connectivity The South and Southwest Asia sub-region has increasingly recognised the relationship between good regional transport connectivity and market competitiveness.Enhancing regional transport connectivity not only hel

213、ps the efficient movement of goods and people but also improves the connectivity between markets,hence,reducing costs and boosting trade across the sub-region.Transport corridors are increasingly seen to stimulate regional integration as well as economic growth.The interaction of improved trade,enha

214、nced connectivity,and converging regulations can accelerate growth and can benefit the slower-growing and landlocked countries in the region(Ahmed,Kelegama and Ghani,2010).Countries in the sub-region have been working towards enhanced national connectivity,especially since the Covid-19 pandemic.For

215、example,Bangladesh has been focusing on enhancing connectivity through the physical alignment of the Asian Highway Route,and through implementing the South Asia sub-regional Economic Cooperation(SASEC)Corridor projects in the country to improve international and regional transport and logistics netw

216、ork.The Maldives,an island state,is focussing on increasing the connectivity of the administrative islands and improving the mobility of individuals,goods and services.The Maldives Flight Plan 2020-25 is the first long-term aviation policy that addresses the necessity of connectivity developments wi

217、thin and internationally for the Maldives through safe and economically sustainable aviation practices.In Nepal,a landlocked country,the government wants to provide road access to all district headquarters and improve national and international transport connectivity;North-South corridors and links

218、from the Southern border(India)to the Northern border(China)are also the governments priority.The government of Turkey is starting to plan new standards for resilient global supply chains based on lessons learned from the global pandemic.The national transport agendas and plans by the countries in t

219、he sub-region have been giving greater importance to regional transport connectivity as well as global linkages in the recent past.Investment in rail,road and inland waterways are all viable ways of enhancing connectivity.There are several national,bilateral and multilateral projects in the sub-regi

220、on that support this aim of enhancing regional connectivity.Some of these most recent ones are listed below.Table 1.Regional connectivity projects in South and Southwest AsiaTable 1.Regional connectivity projects in South and Southwest Asia ProjectProject GoalGoal The Nepal-India Regional Trade and

221、Transport Project(2013-21)by the World Bank Decreasing transport time and logistics costs for bilateral trade between Nepal and India and also transport trade along the Kathmandu-Kolkata corridor.Traders would benefit from reduced infrastructure bottlenecks in Nepal and the adoption of modern approa

222、ches to border management(World Bank,2021a).The Transport Connectivity Improvement Preparatory Facility Project(2020-24)in Bangladesh,funded by the Asian Development Bank Supporting the improvement of transport connectivity and facilitation of multimodal transport in the country and in South Asia(AD

223、B,2020a).RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 23 ProjectProject GoalGoal The Khyber Pass Economic Corridor Project (2018-26)by the World Bank Enhancing economic activity between Pakis

224、tan and Afghanistan by improving regional connectivity,including the development of the Peshawar Kabul Dushanbe Expressway(World Bank,2021d).The Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul Road Transport Corridor Project (2011-21),agreed at the 8th ECO Ministers of Transport and Communications meeting in Turkmenistan

225、 in 2011 Moving goods across multiple international borders,saving time and costs for transport operators and customs authorities while ensuring safety and reliability(Global Trailer,2021).The Trans-Caspian East-West-Middle Corridor A priority in Turkeys infrastructure investment aiming to provide h

226、igh-quality intermodal transport and logistics services,harmonise cross-border rates,and automate cargo transport services along the corridor.It starts from Southeast Asia and China runs through Kazakhstan,the Caspian Sea,Azerbaijan,Georgia and further to European countries.The Bangladesh,Bhutan,Ind

227、ia(BBIN)Motor Vehicle Agreement and the India,Myanmar,Thailand(1MT)Trilateral Highway agreement Improving the regional transport connectivity via road within neighbouring countries.The sub-region also hosts numerous regional co-operation programmes and organisations.Some of these are the South Asian

228、 Association for Regional Cooperation(SAARC),South Asia Sub-regional Economic Cooperation(SASEC)and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation(BIMSTEC).SAARC is a regional intergovernmental organisation with member states including Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Bhuta

229、n,India,the Maldives,Nepal,Pakistan and Sri Lanka.It is dedicated to improving the welfare of the people of South Asia through economic growth,social progress and cultural development.The SAARC Development Fund finances regional opportunities via three categories:socially,economically,and through in

230、frastructure.It has highlighted the importance of developing transport infrastructure and transit facilities,especially for landlocked countries,as a means to promote intra-SAARC trade.SASEC unites Bangladesh,Bhutan,India,the Maldives,Myanmar,Nepal,and Sri Lanka in a project-based partnership to pro

231、mote regional prosperity by improving cross-border connectivity,facilitating faster and less costly trade among member countries,and strengthening regional economic co-operation.Under the SASEC transport programme,regional connectivity improvements aim to increase sub-regional trade and improve the

232、competitiveness of local industries,particularly for Bhutan and Nepal,which are landlocked,as the deficiency of the cross-border infrastructure network results in high transport costs and impedes regional integration and trade with indirect neighbours.BIMSTEC is a regional organisation comprising se

233、ven member states,Bangladesh,Bhutan,India,Myanmar,Nepal,Sri Lanka,and Thailand.It focuses on sharing regional resources and geographical advantages to accelerate growth within these countries.Connectivity has been one of the main areas of co-operation in the BIMSTEC since its established in 1997.It

234、has always emphasised an importance for regional co-operation and integration to accelerate economic growth and social development.RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS 24 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Box 2Box 2.S

235、upporting regional coSupporting regional co-operation on sustainable freight in Asia Pacificoperation on sustainable freight in Asia Pacific The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(UNESCAP)is working on a regional strategy to deepen sustainability in freight transp

236、ort and give further momentum and coherence to initiatives being undertaken at the region-wide level for Asia-Pacific.The outline of the proposed strategy addresses common challenges and offers a guiding vision,objectives,linkages to SDGs directly supported,enablers,priority areas and implementation

237、 arrangements.This policy document could bring a range of stakeholders onto a common platform to plan and implement sustainable freight-transport policies that contribute to achieving SDGs in the decade of action for sustainable development.Regional strategy to deepen sustainable freight transport i

238、n Asia Regional strategy to deepen sustainable freight transport in Asia and the Pacificand the Pacific Guiding vision Efficient,connected,safe and clean regional freight transport system to support the realisation of Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)Objectives Providing coherence to the sustainab

239、le freight initiatives Creating synergies through partnerships Ensuring high-level political affirmation Sharpening the links between freight transport policies and SDGs SDGs supported directly SDG Targets 9.1,9.a,3.6,12.3,9.4,7.3,13.1 Enablers or cross-cutting issues Strengthening governance for su

240、stainable freight transport at a national level Enhancing co-ordination for sustainable freight transport at sub-regional level Building the capacity of transport officials Promoting use of digital transport technologies Encouraging private sector engagement for sustainable freight transport policie

241、s Diversifying sources of financing for sustainable freight transport Priority areas Decarbonising freight transport Building resilience of freight transport to effectively deal with climate challenges and pandemics Strengthening cross-border and transit-transport connectivity Enhancing rural freigh

242、t transport linkages Improving urban freight logistics Reducing freight-transport-related accidents Increasing share of rail freight and other sustainable transport modes Implementing arrangements Establishing a sustainable freight co-ordinating platform Developing a sub-regional action plan on sust

243、ainable freight transport Monitoring and evaluating through a results framework Source:ITF(2022).RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 25 Lack of transport connectivity and poor infras

244、tructure in the sub-region have resulted in high costs of trade transactions and low volumes of intra-regional trade.Increased regional connectivity leads to increased trade within the region.Short-distance trade between partners means that supply chains are also shorter,leading to fewer emissions f

245、rom trade.Growth in regional trade is therefore also aligned with the objective of meeting sustainability targets.To this end,the regional co-operation agreements and organisations,like the ones mentioned above,play an important role in facilitating enhanced trade within the region through improved

246、regional connectivity.A recent step towards regional connectivity that also promotes sustainable transport in Asia and the Pacific is the new Regional Action Programme(RAP)for 2022 to 2026(UNESCAP 2021d).Adopted by ESCAP Member Countries in December 2021,it advises concerted actions to address risin

247、g freight and passenger volumes and rapid urbanisation with high motorisation rates,and encourages accelerated use of digital technologies,deployment of smart transport systems and transitioning towards more inclusive and low-carbon transport systems.There is a lack of sufficient and cost-effective

248、cross-border transport alternatives within the South and Southwest Asia sub-region.Some examples are several different technical standards to be adhered to,inconsistent and complex border-crossing procedures and excessive documentation.To facilitate multimodal transport across the region,countries s

249、hould work on removing these barriers and harmonising procedures,standards and regulations.Unilateral measures usually have a limited impact on transport facilitation since gains on one side of the border may be lost on the other.Regional co-operation is therefore essential.The trade dimension:Measu

250、ring connectivity gaps A large part of South and Southwest Asia is connected through integrated road and rail networks.It is part of the regional land transport network,as formalised by the intergovernmental Agreements on the Asian Highway Network,the Trans-Asian Railway Network and Dry Ports.Despit

251、e efforts made to enhance connectivity in the region and the existence of bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements,South Asia remains one of the least economically connected regions in the world(Sinha and Sareen,2020).Several factors have led to this outcome,some of which include protectioni

252、st policies,high logistics cost,lack of political will and a broader trust deficit.Sinha and Sareen(2020)estimate that intra-regional trade in South Asia accounts for about 6%of total global trade,whereas in East Asia and the Pacific it accounts for almost 50%and its 22%in Sub-Saharan Africa(Kathuri

253、a,2018).There is a connectivity gap between countries in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region and the developed economies in the rest of the world.Overall,the connectivity(measured in terms of access to global GDP)is half of,or less-than-half of that of most developed economies.This is driven by

254、a multitude of factors.The landlocked countries of Afghanistan,Nepal and Bhutan have an added disadvantage of lack of access to markets through effective and low-cost maritime connections.Other factors that have an impact on connectivity include the physical distance,lack of infrastructure and opera

255、tional connectivity,and more broadly on the availability of trade corridors and transit systems(ITF,2019;UNESCAP,2019b).Figure 7 shows the impact of distances on reaching global centres of production and consumption for the countries in South and Southwest Asia.The Maldives is not included in this a

256、nalysis due to the lack of data for this particular study.The comparison for each is made to the Netherlands since it is currently estimated to be the best performer for the connectivity indicator in the world.The United States is included as an example of a large,developed economy with significant

257、international trade.A manufacturer in the RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS 26 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Netherlands can reach 20%of the global GDP within a 1 000 km distance and the United States can reach

258、 the same percentage within2 000 kilometres.For a Bangladeshi manufacturer,the average distance for the same 20%is over 4 000 kilometres.This distance is already a major obstacle to trade.As shown in the figure below,all the countries in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region have half,or less-than

259、-half the connectivity observed in the Netherlands and the United States.Turkey is an exception where 20%of the global GDP can be reached within almost the same distance as the United States.Box 3 explains an indicator that can be used to estimate the connectivity of one country relative to another.

260、The connectivity gap of countries in the sub-region is almost 50%that of the Netherlands(Figure 8).This adversely impacts the ability of the countries to integrate into global value chains(ITF,2019).Figure Figure 7 7.Impact of distances on reaching global centres of productionImpact of distances on

261、reaching global centres of production and consumptionand consumption for South and Southfor South and Southw west Asia countriesest Asia countries RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022

262、 27 RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS 28 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Planning for transport logistics involves many different stakeholders,complex procedures,and co-ordination between the public and private s

263、ectors.Transport and connectivity policies should focus on reducing the logistical barriers and harmonising procedures,thus making up for the countries in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region being far from global economic centres.To reduce the connectivity gap,countries need to focus not only on

264、 transport costs but also on reducing border crossing times and their variability.This is important because increased border crossing times and delays at the border also increase the logistics costs.Historically,the sub-region has high total costs of trade,which is due to lower productivity,high ene

265、rgy costs,transportation costs,specific duties,tariffs,and customs duties(ADB,2009).The trade costs of sub-regional countries are among the highest in the world,with intra-regional trade costs much more than double that of neighbouring East and Southeast Asia regions(UNESCAP,2019a).Improvements in c

266、ross-border infrastructure,especially through road and rail links,are key to enhancing connectivity in the region.Improved infrastructure will lead to greater connectivity which would,in turn,strengthen production networks in the sub-region.Figure Figure 8 8.Connectivity gap for South and Southwest

267、Asia countries compared with the NetherlandsConnectivity gap for South and Southwest Asia countries compared with the Netherlands Note:AFG=Afghanistan;BGD=Bangladesh;BTN=Bhutan;IND=India;IRN=Islamic Republic of Iran;LKA=Sri Lanka;NPL=Nepal;PAK=Pakistan;TUR=Turkey Several initiatives in the last few

268、years have already been implemented,including the upgrading of land customs stations to Integrated Check Posts(ICPs)in India,the extension of rail networks such as the Agartala Akhaura railway link(Bangladesh)and the Jogbani Biratnagar railway line(Nepal),the establishment of the second border check

269、-post between India and Myanmar(Zokhawthar Rikhawdar).Such improvements in cross-border infrastructure are essential to enhance connectivity in this sub-region.RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK

270、OECD/ITF 2022 29 Box 3Box 3.Measuring the connectivity gap between countriesMeasuring the connectivity gap between countries The methodological approach for measuring connectivity in this report is a gravity-based model which measures how many opportunities(defined as GDP)can be reached from each co

271、untry relative to other countries.The explanatory components are calculated for road,rail and maritime transport modes and include distance,transport cost(including border crossing and handling cost),travel time(speed)and border crossing time.The following formula represents the indicator structure:

272、=where g is the generalised cost,including all the explanatory factors;is the elasticity of the index to the generalised cost and is set to equal 0.4(a commonly used value for trade patterns elasticities);is arbitrarily set so that the ratio gc/is always below one and close to 1 for adjacent countri

273、es.The index measures the“economic space”available to trade by country,given the explanatory factors.Source:extract from ITF(2019),“Enhancing Connectivity and Freight in Central Asia”,International Transport Forum Policy Papers,No.71,OECD Publishing,Paris.,p.45 FREIGHT TRANSPORT:MANAGING THE TRIPLIN

274、G OF DEMAND 30 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Freight transport:Managing the tripling of demand The freight transport sector is crucial in the development of a sustainable transport system and reducing transport emissions from the sector.The sector is also an important

275、facilitator of regional trade among the countries in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region and beyond.Freight transport in the sub-region was responsible for 45%of total transport CO2 emissions in 2015.Even with the most ambitious set of mitigation policies,the demand for freight transport is proj

276、ected to almost triple by 2050.Robust and rapid action is required to limit the associated emissions from the sector.Freight currently accounts for about 45%of total transport emissions in the sub-region and will still be responsible for 40%of emissions by 2050,under current policies.However,ambitio

277、us policies can lead to a 23%decrease in the demand for freight transport by 2050,compared to the current trajectory,as shown in Figure 9.For example,new measures implemented under the Reshape scenario which would issue a shift in current policy paradigm would mean that emissions from freight transp

278、ort could be 62%less by 2050 than in Recover(business-as-usual)scenario by that same time,and 27%less than they were in 2015.The reductions in a Reshape+scenario which would not only reinforce and reshape current policy but also leverage on lessons learned from the Covid-19 pandemic are even greater

279、.They would be 73%below where Recover will take things by 2050 and be 48%less than they were in 2015.Freight transport and trade are highly interrelated.After a brief slump in trade supply and demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic,the trade volumes quickly bounced back to pre-pandemic levels and conti

280、nue to rise in South and Southwest Asia.This is also reflected in the demand for freight transport increasing sharply in the coming years,especially under the Recover scenario.South Asia is expected to grow by 7.1%in 2021-22(World Bank,2021c).At the same time,South Asia remains the region that is un

281、able to realise its full potential for trade.The intra-regional trade constitutes less than 5%of the total trade among South Asian countries.Despite liberalisation in tariffs by South Asian countries,average tariffs in the region remain high.Several efforts have been made to promote intra-regional t

282、rade by countries in the sub-region and to overcome such barriers to trade,especially in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.Increased trade regionalisation,when combined with the measures under the Reshape+scenario,can lead to slower growth in freight activity in the region.Figure Figure 9 9.Fre

283、ight activity for surface,domestic air and sea movements in SFreight activity for surface,domestic air and sea movements in South and outh and S Southwest outhwest toto 20502050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represe

284、nt increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.FREIGHT TRANSPORT:MANAGING THE TRIPLING OF DEMAND ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 31 Non-urban freight transport:Encouraging the sustainable movement of goods Non-urban freight transport accounted

285、for 97%activity in the South and Southwest Asia sub-regions freight sector in 2015.Under the current trajectory(Recover),the total demand for non-urban freight transport increases by almost a factor of 4 between 2015 and 2050,as shown in Figure 10.The same total increase comes to 3.1 times for the R

286、eshape and 2.8 times for the Reshape+scenarios.As in most economies,maritime transport plays a central role as an international trade enabler for South and Southwest Asia due to the long distances required for the international movement of goods and accounts for substantial tonne-kilometres.It remai

287、ns the mode that accounts for the largest share under non-urban freight throughout all the scenarios,followed by road and then rail transport.Comparing Reshape+to Recover in 2050,the total demand for air,sea,inland and road transport decreases while the demand for rail transport increases.With 7%of

288、non-urban freight activity in 2015,rail as a mode will capture 12%in Recover,15%in Reshape and 19%Reshape+by 2050.This is reflective of the policy actions that the sub-region takes in the coming decades,with an emphasis on development as well as the improvement of rail infrastructure and the introdu

289、ction of carbon taxation.However,even with this growth in the share of rail transport for non-urban freight,sea freight will continue to remain the dominant mode of surface transport in all three scenarios for most countries the sub-region.The share of air freight activity,measured in tonne-kilometr

290、es,remains constant in the sub-region at less than 1%throughout all the scenarios.Figure Figure 1010.NonNon-urban freight demand by mode and scenario for South and Southurban freight demand by mode and scenario for South and Southw west Asia to 2050est Asia to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled e

291、stimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Emissions projections for non-urban freight The emissions from the non-urban freight sector are projected to increase by 87%in 2050

292、 under Recover assumptions but decline from 2015 levels by 24%in Reshape and 47%in Reshape+,as shown in Figure 11.This can be partly explained by a 16%activity drop in Reshape and 24%drop in Reshape+compared to Recover,in 2050.The emissions peak by 2020 and then fall temporarily due to the Covid-19

293、pandemic.Figure 11 shows that under Recover,the tank-to-wheel emissions from non-urban freight transport in South and Southwest Asia do not peak until 2050.Under Reshape,emissions initially fall in the aftermath of Covid-19 but then rise until 2030 before they start declining.Under Reshape+policies,

294、with the efforts FREIGHT TRANSPORT:MANAGING THE TRIPLING OF DEMAND 32 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 to leverage the decarbonisation opportunities of the Covid-19 recovery,the emissions fall continuously starting from the year 2020.Figure Figure 1111.NonNon-urban freigh

295、turban freight tanktank-toto-wheel emissions by scenario for South and Southwheel emissions by scenario for South and Southw west Asia to 2050est Asia to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,which represent increasin

296、gly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.It is also interesting to compare the trends between demand and emissions for non-urban freight transport,shown in Figure 12.Even though road transport accounts for 33-38%of the total demand,its emissions vary between 83-89%of the total e

297、missions from the non-urban freight sector.Similarly,while the share of sea freight tonne-kilometres ranges between 45-59%under the different scenarios,it only accounts for 5-8%of emissions up to 2050.This discrepancy between the share of tonne-kilometres and the share of emissions can be explained

298、through the carbon intensity per tonne-kilometre of different modes;road freight is and remains highly carbon-intensive in the sub-region.The demand for rail transport increases between 2015 and 2050 with tonne-kilometres rising by six to eight times across scenarios.Additionally,the emissions from

299、rail transport double between 2015 and 2050 under the Recover scenario and remain approximately the same during the same period for Reshape and Reshape+,even as the tonne-kilometres increase under these two scenarios.This reflects the greening of rail transport in the sub-region.Several countries in

300、 the sub-region have already put in place targets to electrify their railways and improve and enhance the network,which can significantly limit emissions from this mode when combined with cleaner energy grids of the future.Decarbonisation of the freight sector can be advanced through a combination o

301、f policy actions.Some of the solutions that are readily available for road freight include aerodynamic retrofits,reduced-rolling resistance of tyres,vehicle weight reduction,increased engine efficiency and hybridisation(ITF,2021b).In the rail sector,battery electric and hybrid hydrogen fuel cell tra

302、ction systems have gained prominence as alternatives to the more costly traditional decarbonisation methods with recent technological developments.FREIGHT TRANSPORT:MANAGING THE TRIPLING OF DEMAND ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 33 Figure Figure 1212.NonNon-urban freight

303、 urban freight d demand and emissions by modal split for South and Southemand and emissions by modal split for South and Southw west Asia to 2050est Asia to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,represent increasingly

304、 ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.These measures can be further strengthened through fuel economy and CO2 emission standards,pricing mechanisms and other incentives,such as zero-emissions zones,charging infrastructure,promoting off-peak deliveries,voluntary emissions reducti

305、on programmes,to name a few.Such measures are detailed in various ITF and ESCAP publications,including the Transport Climate Action Directory(ITF,2021c),“Regulations and Standards for Clean Trucks and Buses:On the Right Track?”(ITF,2020b),“Enhancing shift towards Sustainable Freight Transport in Asi

306、a and the Pacific-Opportunities through railway Decarbonization”(UNESCAP,2021e),“Towards Road Freight Decarbonisation Trends,Measures and Policies”(ITF,2018a),“Decarbonising Maritime Transport Pathways to zero-carbon shipping by 2035”(ITF,2018b)and,“How Urban Delivery Vehicles can Boost Electric Mob

307、ility”(ITF,2020a).0%20%40%60%80%100%BaselineCovid-19RecoverReshapeReshape+RecoverReshapeReshape+2015202020302050AirRailRiverRoadSea0%20%40%60%80%100%BaselineCovid-19RecoverReshapeReshape+RecoverReshapeReshape+2015202020302050DemandEmissionsFREIGHT TRANSPORT:MANAGING THE TRIPLING OF DEMAND 34 ITF SOU

308、TH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Urban freight transport:Improving efficiencies and fleets The South and Southwest Asia sub-region is experiencing rapid urbanisation that is set to continue.By 2050,52%of the sub-regions population(1.3 billion people)will be living in cities.As c

309、ities experience increasing population growth and e-commerce becomes more prevalent,urban freight transport will become a major sector when it comes to the decarbonisation of transport.Urban freight transport usually includes multiple short-distance trips with small carry loads.These trips represent

310、ed only 3%of total freight activity in 2015 but were very carbon intensive.Even though they make up a small proportion of the total demand for freight transport in the sub-region,urban delivery trips account for 8%of all total emissions from the transport sector.The demand for urban freight transpor

311、t,under the current policy ambitions,could increase by seven times between 2015 and 2050,reaching 1 539 billion tonne-kilometres,as shown in Figure 13.Under all three policy scenarios,the activity in urban freight transport already more than doubles between 2015 and 2030.Under a set of highly ambiti

312、ous policies in the Reshape+,the demand in 2050 could be reduced by 11%,compared to what it would be for Recover.Figure Figure 1313.Total urban freight tonneTotal urban freight tonne-kilometres by scenario for South and Southkilometres by scenario for South and Southw west Asia to 2050est Asia to 20

313、50 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Emissions projections for urban freight As shown in Figure 14,CO2 emissions will more-than-double un

314、der the Recover scenario between 2015 and 2050.After a temporary fall between 2020 and 2025,the emissions begin rising again and would peak beyond 2050,under current policies.Under the more ambitious Reshape and Reshape+scenarios,2020 becomes the year when the emissions peak for urban freight transp

315、ort and will fall continuously after,rapidly between 2020 and 2025 and then gradually beyond 2025.Under Reshape+,with a set of highly ambitious policies,the emissions in 2050 could be almost 80%lower in 2050,compared to what it would be for Recover.FREIGHT TRANSPORT:MANAGING THE TRIPLING OF DEMAND I

316、TF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 35 Figure Figure 1414.Urban freightUrban freight tanktank-toto-wheelwheel COCO2 2 emissions by scenario for South andemissions by scenario for South and SouthSouthw west Asia to 2050est Asia to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimate

317、s.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.Solutions,such as switching to alternative fuels,carbon pricing,stricter emission standards,zero-emissions zones,more recharging points and ince

318、ntives for greening the entire vehicle fleets are all viable options in the short term for urban freight transport.Some other ways in which the carbon footprint of the sector can be reduced include training of drivers(eco-driving),incentivising off-peak deliveries,creating collection points,route op

319、timisation,fuel economy and CO2 emission standards,pricing mechanisms,zero-emissions zones and voluntary emissions reduction programmes.Collaboration between different fleets by different companies,such as sharing vehicles to reduce empty runs,can reduce both costs and emissions.Mt CO2PASSENGER TRAN

320、SPORT:SEPARATING TRANSPORT DEMAND FROM ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 36 ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 Passenger transport:Separating transport demand from economic activity As economies and the populations of the countries in the sub-region continue to grow in the coming decades,s

321、o does the number of people who want to and have the means to travel.This section outlines the projections for passenger transport in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region.Passenger transport includes both urban passenger transport and non-urban passenger transport unless specified otherwise.The g

322、rowth in the economy is bound to grow the demand for transport activity.In turn,this inevitably leads to an increase in emissions from the transport sector.Therefore,to sustain a strong and growing economy while meeting the climate targets of the transport sector it is essential that the sub-region

323、decouples the demand for transport from economic activity.Passenger demand in South and Southwest Asia is projected to quadruple between 2015 and 2050 under Recover scenario of current policy ambitions(Figure 15).Under Reshape and Reshape+,the demand for passenger activity still increases but is con

324、strained by ambitious policies.The demand for passenger transport can drop by 17%,from roughly 3.6 trillion passenger-kilometres to 2.9 trillion passenger-kilometres under Reshape+,compared to the business-as-usual Recover one.Figure Figure 1515.Passenger activity in South and SouthPassenger activit

325、y in South and Southw west Asia by scenario to 2050est Asia by scenario to 2050 Note:Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates.Recover,Reshape and Reshape+,which refer to the three scenarios modelled,represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.The demand for passenge

326、r transport is comprised of urban and non-urban cohorts.Urban passenger transport demand accounts for all passenger transport that takes place within cities.Non-urban passenger transport demand is the sum of regional(peri-urban and rural)and intercity transport.The demand for non-urban passenger tra

327、nsport is considerably greater than urban passenger transport under all the scenarios in 2050(Figures 18 and 21).Though the demand split is almost even between urban and non-urban passenger transport until 2030,non-urban passenger demand experiences high growth of 135-140%between 2030-50.This growth

328、 is mainly driven by an increase in the demand for rail transport that would be needed to meet sustainability goals.05 00010 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 000201520302050Billion passenger kilometresBillion passenger kilometresPASSENGER TRANSPORT:SEPARATING TRANSPORT DEMAND FROM ECONOMIC ACTIVI

329、TY ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK OECD/ITF 2022 37 Emissions in the passenger transport sector could grow by 145%,increasing from 579 million tonnes of CO2 in 2015 to 1 142 million tonnes of CO2 in 2050.This trend can be reversed under the Reshape and Reshape+scenarios.These can decr

330、ease the emissions in 2050 by 10%with Reshape policies and 15%with Reshape+.Figure 16 shows that under the current ambition(Recover scenario),the emissions from the passenger sector for the sub-region do not peak until 2050.Whereas,under both Reshape scenarios,emissions from the sector peak by 2030.

331、The total baseline emissions from freight and passenger transport in the sub-region are split quite evenly,with passenger transport accounting for 54%of the total emissions(Figure 17).This split between passenger and freight transport becomes more uneven as time draws closer to 2050.Under the Recove

332、r scenario,the total emissions are split 59%for passenger and 42%for freight transport in 2050.Under Reshape+,this gap widens to 64%and 36%between passenger and freight transport emissions.Most of these emissions from the passenger sector come from non-urban transport between 2015 and 2050.The trend

333、 is similar for freight transport.Urban freight transport accounts for a small percentage throughout the period,totalling up to 8%of total emissions in 2050,under Recover.On the other hand,non-urban freight transport is responsible for 32%of total emissions in 2050,in the same scenario.While the total emissions from the transport sector can drop drastically under Reshape+,non-urban travel continue