1、 March 2022 Economic and Market Report State of the EU auto industry Full-year 2021 www.acea.auto 1 CONTENTS EU economic outlook.2 Passenger cars.2 Registrations.4 World.4 The European Union.6 Production.8 World.8 The European Union.11 Trade.12 Imports.13 Exports.14 Commercial vehicles.15 Registrati

2、ons.15 The European Union.15 Production outlook.20 World.20 Trade.22 Imports.23 Exports.24 COPYRIGHT NOTICE Reproduction of(parts of)this information or related documents is not permitted without the prior written consent of ACEA.Wherever reproduction is permitted,ACEA shall be referred to as source

3、 of the information.www.acea.auto 2 EU ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Despite global supply chain disruptions,the EU economy saw a strong recovery during 2021,with GDP expanding by 5.3%.The global supply chain issues,such as the shortage of semiconductors,and elevated energy prices continue to weigh on production

4、.As a result,higher-than-projected inflationary pressure is restraining household purchasing power.According to the European Commissions latest forecast,GDP in the EU is projected to grow by 4.0%in 2022.The current wave of COVID-19 infections is expected to be short-lived,and most supply chain issue

5、s are predicted to dissipate throughout the year.Moreover,EU GDP is set to further increase in 2023,albeit only at a moderate pace of 2.8%.However,it is important to note that the forecast does not factor in the current war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia.With energy prices set to remain

6、 high,and price pressures on goods and services increasing,inflation in the EU is predicted to peak in the first quarter of 2022.However,as supply constraints and energy prices stabilise,inflation is projected to decline sharply by the end of 2022.Overall inflation in EU is predicted to increase fro

7、m 2.9%in 2021 to 3.9%in 2022,and then to fall to 1.9%in 2023.Table 1:Overview EU forecast 2021 2022 2023 GDP(%)5.3 4.0 2.8 Inflation(%)2.9 3.9 1.9 SOURCE:EUROPEAN COMMISSION EUROPEAN ECONOMIC FORECAST,WINTER 2022 www.acea.auto 3 Figure 1:EU GDP growth forecast for 2022|by country SOURCE:EUROPEAN COM

8、MISSION EUROPEAN ECONOMIC FORECAST,WINTER 2022 www.acea.auto 4 PASSENGER CARS REGISTRATIONS WORLD In 2021,global sales volumes struggled to rebound to their pre-pandemic levels,with a worldwide semiconductor shortage placing additional pressure on an already-stressed automobile industry.Global sales

9、 for new cars increased by a modest 3.6%to 65.9 million units last year,with growth mainly the result of 2020s low base for comparison.This is still roughly 10 million units below 2019 levels.The substantial losses during the second half of 2021 reduced the full-year performance in the European regi

10、on by 1.6%to 14.3 million cars sold.The results were affected by losses in the EU(-2.4%)and in Turkey(-7.7%).However,Russia,and particularly Ukraine,delivered much better results,up 2.7%and 21.2%,respectively in 2021.Last year,passenger car sales in the US reflected the supply chain constraints and

11、the subsequent slowdown in production.Full-year volumes reached 11.9 million units in 2021,an increase of only 5.5%compared to 2020.South Americas full-year results remained solid,having grown by 10.5%to 2.8 million units during 2021.However,the regions performance was not helped by the weak sales i

12、n Brazil(down 3.7%compared to 2020).Owing to the post-recovery effect of the pandemic and the supply-side constraints,Japanese car sales in 2021 stood at 3.7 million units,down by 3.7%compared with 2020.South Koreas volumes also decreased by 9.5%year-on-year,with semiconductor shortage continuing to

13、 weigh down on vehicle production and sales.Demand in China in 2021 remained close to 2020 levels,with a modest growth of 1.6%as the recovery momentum weakened during the second part the year,due to microchip supply chain issues.Nevertheless,the Chinese share of global car sales remained above 30%.P

14、assenger car sales in India grew by 26.3%during 2021,totalling 3 million units slightly exceeding 2019 pre-pandemic volumes(2.9 million units)as the accumulation of savings and lower interest rates combined to boost consumers capacity to afford a car.Also,the tendency to avoid public transportation

15、during the pandemic provided a further incentive to purchase a private car.www.acea.auto 5 Table 2:World new passenger car registrations|by region 20211 2020%change 21/20%share 2021 EUROPE 14,297,619 14,534,450-1.6 21.7 European Union2 9,700,192 9,939,418-2.4 14.7 EFTA 427,512 387,634+10.3 0.6 Unite

16、d Kingdom 1,647,181 1,631,064+1.0 2.5 Russia 1,535,861 1,495,520+2.7 2.3 Turkey 559,251 605,945-7.7 0.8 Ukraine 100,266 82,758+21.2 0.2 Others:Europe3 327,356 392,111-16.5 0.5 NORTH AMERICA4 13,971,411 13,163,433+6.1 21.2 of which the United States 11,856,503 11,233,815+5.5 18.0 SOUTH AMERICA 2,767,

17、266 2,504,902+10.5 4.2 of which Brazil 1,552,266 1,611,530-3.7 2.4 ASIA 31,744,920 30,726,835+3.3 48.2 China 20,101,579 19,789,306+1.6 30.5 Japan 3,695,167 3,838,728-3.7 5.6 India 3,014,122 2,385,741+26.3 4.6 South Korea 1,491,831 1,648,679-9.5 2.3 Others:Asia5 3,442,221 3,064,381+12.3 5.2 MIDDLE EA

18、ST/AFRICA 3,097,458 2,639,239+17.4 4.7 WORLD 65,878,674 63,568,859+3.6 100.0 SOURCE:ACEA,IHS MARKIT 1 Provisional figures 2 Data for Malta not available 3 Includes Belarus,Bosnia-Herzegovina,Kazakhstan,North Macedonia,Serbia and Uzbekistan 4 Based on production type 5 Includes Hong Kong,Taiwan and a

19、ll the other South Asian countries,excluding India www.acea.auto 6 THE EUROPEAN UNION New car registrations in the EU fell by 2.4%to 9.7 million in 2021,in spite of the record low base of comparison of 2020.This fall was mainly a result of the semiconductor shortage that negatively impacted car prod

20、uction,particularly during the second half of 2021.Total EU car registrations last year were 3.3 million units below pre-crisis levels in 2019.Of the four EU major markets,only Germany posted a decline(-10.1%)in 2021,despite the semiconductor shortage.In contrast,Italy saw the highest increase(+5.5%

21、),followed by Spain(+1.0%)and France(+0.5%),with modest growth.In 2022,car sales are expected to return to growth as the microprocessor supply is expected to stabilise during the year.Table 3:Top 4 New passenger car registrations in the EU 2021 2020%change 21/20 Germany 2,622,132 2,917,678-10.1 Fran

22、ce 1,659,003 1,650,118+0.5 Italy 1,457,952 1,381,756+5.5 Spain 859,477 851,210+1.0 EUROPEAN UNION 9,700,192 9,939,418-2.4 SOURCE:ACEA www.acea.auto 7 Figure 2:New passenger car registrations in the EU|12-month trend SOURCE:ACEA www.acea.auto 8 PRODUCTION WORLD In 2021,the shortage of semiconductors

23、constrained the global automotive industrys activity,preventing production from realigning with demand.Consequently,European passenger car production contracted by 5.7%in 2021.Russia,and particularly Ukraine,were the only countries in Europe to record growth last year,with output increasing by 7.3%a

24、nd 75.1%,respectively.US auto plants manufactured around 6.3 million passenger cars in 2021,up 3.1%compared to 2020,despite the ongoing semiconductor shortage.Manufacturers continued to focus their efforts on maintaining production to match demand,although this left little space for inventory restoc

25、king.In 2021,South American car production returned to growth(+11.2%),benefitting from 2020s low basis of comparison,as well as from Argentinas production rebound.Brazil also positively contributed to the regions growth(+6.3%).Chinese passenger car production increased by 7.1%last year,with 20.7 mil

26、lion units,despite supply issues and power outages.China maintained its position as the worlds largest car producer,with a market share of almost 33%.In Japan and South Korea in 2021,car production faced declines,down 4.9%and 1.3%,respectively.Manufacturing activity was expected to accelerate recove

27、ry on the back of the roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccination.However supply chain issues hit production,notably in the second half of the year.Indonesia and Thailand posted significant gains(up 58.5%and 16.5%,respectively)thanks to a low base of comparison,as almost 1.6 million units were produced in

28、total.India recorded a similar performance,with the production of passenger cars increasing by 28.2%during 2021,as a result of 2020s low base and the increased demand for personal mobility.Worldwide production increased overall by 2.7%to 63.2 million cars built last year.However,this is still almost

29、 11 million units below the 2019 pre-pandemic volumes.www.acea.auto 9 Table 4:World passenger car production|by region 2021 2020%change 21/20%share 2021 EUROPE 13,318,257 14,118,338-5.7 21.1 European Union 10,012,259 10,779,146-7.1 15.9 United Kingdom 853,495 909,802-6.2 1.4 Russia 1,343,911 1,252,3

30、00+7.3 2.1 Turkey 788,233 845,103-6.7 1.2 Ukraine 7,342 4,193+75.1 0.01 Others:Europe6 313,017 327,794-4.5 0.5 NORTH AMERICA 9,454,621 9,688,779-2.4 15.0 of which the United States 6,329,936 6,139,465+3.1 10.0 SOUTH AMERICA 1,949,161 1,752,090+11.2 3.1 of which Brazil 1,707,881 1,607,175+6.3 2.7 ASI

31、A 36,808,736 34,506,898+6.7 58.3 China 20,737,612 19,362,886+7.1 32.8 Japan 6,617,765 6,962,099-4.9 10.5 India 3,561,580 2,777,840+28.2 5.6 South Korea 3,186,801 3,228,296-1.3 5.0 Indonesia 865,857 546,379+58.5 1.4 Thailand 728,962 625,626+16.5 1.2 Others:Asia7 1,110,159 1,003,772+10.6 1.8 MIDDLE EA

32、ST/AFRICA 1,621,738 1,408,721+15.1 2.6 of which Iran 979,969 866,202+13.1 1.6 WORLD 63,152,513 61,474,826+2.7 100.0 SOURCE:IHS MARKIT 6 Includes Belarus,Kazakhstan,Serbia and Uzbekistan 7 Includes Taiwan,Malaysia,Pakistan,Philippines and Vietnam www.acea.auto 10 Figure 3:Top 10 World passenger car p

33、roducers SOURCE:IHS MARKIT www.acea.auto 11 THE EUROPEAN UNION Passenger car production struggled to take off in the EU,despite demand being incentivised and the need to restock inventory,as supply shortages persisted throughout the second part of the year.In 2021,EU car output declined by 7.1%compa

34、red to the already-low 2020 levels,reaching only 10 million cars built.This is more than 4 million units fewer than 2019 pre-pandemic volumes.With the exception of Sweden and Slovakia,manufacturing activity slowed in all the main EU car-producing countries last year,with Germany(-13.2%)and Spain(-8.

35、9%)being the hardest hit.Table 5:Top 10 Passenger car producers in the EU 2021 2020%change 21/20 Germany 2,946,826 3,393,960 -13.2 Spain 1,603,214 1,759,907 -8.9 Czech Republic 1,090,559 1,129,429 -3.4 Slovakia 969,313 943,746 +2.7 France 854,089 869,856 -1.8 Romania 420,755 438,107-4.0 Hungary 420,

36、497 433,601 -3.0 Italy 419,539 455,323-7.9 Sweden 257,733 245,671 +4.9 Belgium 219,400 237,075 -7.5 EUROPEAN UNION 10,012,259 10,779,146-7.1 SOURCE:IHS MARKIT www.acea.auto 12 TRADE With pandemic restrictions easing and demand for new passenger cars increasing,trade activities picked up in 2021.Last

37、 year,the total value of EU car exports reached 125 billion,up 3.6%compared to 2020.Nonetheless,this is still nearly 15 billion lower than pre-pandemic levels back in 2019.During the same period,cars imports were worth 52.8 billion,resulting in a trade surplus of almost 73 billion for the EU in 2021

38、,or 4.5%higher than 2020.Table 6:EU passenger car trade Trade in value(in million)Jan-Dec 2021 Jan-Dec 2020%change 21/20 Imports 52,802 51,597+2.3 Exports 125,450 121,144+3.6 Trade balance 72,648 69,547+4.5 SOURCE:EUROSTAT www.acea.auto 13 IMPORTS In 2021,the US maintained its leading position as th

39、e main country of origin for EU car imports,with a 15.4%value market share.It was followed closely by the UK,South Korea and Japan.Together,these four markets account for nearly 60%of the value of ex-EU imports of passenger cars.Imports originating from the US(-22.3%)and the UK(-18.2%)contracted in

40、terms of value in 2021 compared to 2020.Over the same period,the value of cars imported from some of EUs other major trading partners grew,most notably imports from China(+234.3%).Table 7:Top 10 Countries of origin of EU passenger car imports Trade in value(in million)Jan-Dec 2021 Jan-Dec 2020%chang

41、e 21/20%share 2021 United States 8,144 10,480-22.3 15.4 United Kingdom 7,623 9,314-18.2 14.4 South Korea 7,107 5,511+29.0 13.5 Japan 6,998 8,112-13.7 13.3 Turkey 6,139 6,330-3.0 11.6 China 5,904 1,766+234.3 11.2 Mexico 4,590 4,109+11.7 8.7 Morocco 2,840 2,191+29.6 5.4 South Africa 1,918 2,380-19.4 3

42、.6 Switzerland 325 271+19.8 0.6 SOURCE:EUROSTAT www.acea.auto 14 EXPORTS Last year,the export value of the EU-built passenger cars heading to the UK declined by 27.8%.In contrast,exports to the US(+9.1%)and China(+16.5%)increased substantially during 2021,making them the EUs two most valuable export

43、 markets,ahead of UK.Exports to other major destinations saw strong growth,most notably Russia,with the value of cars exported increasing by over 40%.Table 8:Top 10 Destinations for EU passenger car exports Trade in value(in million)Jan-Dec 2021 Jan-Dec 2020%change 21/20%share 2021 United States 25,

44、510 23,372+9.1 20.3 China 21,180 18,178+16.5 16.9 United Kingdom 20,301 28,106-27.8 16.2 Switzerland 6,408 6,278+2.1 5.1 South Korea 6,351 6,829-7.0 5.1 Japan 6,091 5,630+8.2 4.9 Turkey 4,655 5,953-21.8 3.7 Norway 4,307 3,112+38.4 3.4 Russia 3,030 2,145+41.3 2.4 Australia 2,610 2,074+25.9 2.1 SOURCE

45、:EUROSTAT www.acea.auto 15 COMMERCIAL VEHICLES REGISTRATIONS THE EUROPEAN UNION8 Commercial vehicle registrations in the EU increased during 2021,thanks to the low base of comparison of 2020.The increase was mainly recorded during the first half of 2021.Over the full year,the total number of commerc

46、ial vehicles registered in the EU increased by 9.6%to 1,880,682 units.However,this is far below the 2.1 million registered in 2019,the year prior to the pandemic.With the exception of Spain(-2.8%),all major EU markets posted growth last year.Italy saw the highest percentage gain(+15.5%)followed by F

47、rance(+7.4%),while registrations increased by only a modest 0.6%in Germany.Table 9:New commercial vehicle and bus registrations in the EU|by segment 2021 2020%change 21/20 Vans9 1,561,425 1,439,375+8.5 Trucks10 289,316 247,616+16.8 Buses11 29,941 29,136+2.8 TOTAL 1,880,682 1,716,127+9.6 SOURCE:ACEA

48、8 Data for Malta not available 9 Light commercial vehicles up to 3.5t 10 Medium and heavy commercial vehicles over 3.5t 11 Buses and coaches over 3.5t www.acea.auto 16 Figure 4:Top 4 New commercial vehicle and bus registrations in the EU SOURCE:ACEA www.acea.auto 17 Vans Full-year results for 2021 i

49、n the van segment saw a year-on-year rise of 8.5%across the EU,with nearly 1.6 million light commercial vehicles registered in total.This is despite negative results in the last six months of the year.Performances were mixed in the four big markets.In Spain(-4.0%)and Germany(-0.8%)new van registrati

50、ons fell slightly,while Italy and France ended the year in positive territory,with volumes up by 14.7%and 7.5%,respectively.Figure 5:Top 4 New van registrations in the EU SOURCE:ACEA www.acea.auto 18 Trucks In 2021,new truck registrations across the EU increased by 16.8%,with a total of 289,316 unit

51、s sold.Despite negative results from September to November,gains recorded during the first half of the year and in December contributed to the positive overall full-year performance.Nearly all EU markets managed to outperform 2020,including the four major ones:Italy(+22.3%),Spain(+8.1%),Germany(+5.6

52、%)and France(+5.5%).Figure 6:Top 4 New truck registrations in the EU SOURCE:ACEA www.acea.auto 19 Buses Bus and coach sales increased by a modest 2.8%during last year,to 29,941 units.Among the regions largest markets,only Spain saw a decline(-10.2%)compared to 2020.Meanwhile,bus registrations remain

53、ed nearly unchanged in Germany(+0.2%).France(+13.4%)and Italy(+11.1%)ended the year in positive territory,with both markets recording double-digit gains.Figure 7:Top 4 New bus registrations in the EU SOURCE:ACEA www.acea.auto 20 PRODUCTION WORLD Pandemic-related factors continued to affect European

54、manufacturing activity in the first quarter of 2021.The situation improved in the second quarter,with domestic demand for commercial vehicles picking up as vaccination programmes progressed across the region.Despite ongoing supply chain constraints for steel,semiconductors and transportation in gene

55、ral,commercial vehicle production in Europe expanded by 4.9%in 2021.In North America,production recovered strongly during the first half of the year,most notably in the truck and bus segments.However,supply chain issues also affected US production throughout the year.Looking at full-year 2021 commer

56、cial vehicle figures,North American output reached nearly 4.2 million,up 9.4%compared to 2020.The shortage of microprocessors had limited impact on South American manufacturing activities last year.Total production of new vans,trucks and buses in the entire region totalled more than 0.8 million unit

57、s in 2021,38.2%higher than the preceding year.Price inflation and supply chain disruptions placed considerable pressure on production in China,dragging down full-year results.Chinese commercial vehicle output weakened in 2021 compared to 2020,falling 8.6%to approximately 5.5 million units.The South

58、Asian commercial vehicle industry recovered last year,after having seen several plants shut down in 2020.The regions production reached nearly 2.3 million commercial vehicles in 2021,up 33.7%year-on-year,thanks to strong domestic demand.Despite production disruptions created by lack of semiconductor

59、s,Japan and South Korea increased their full-year output by 4.7%to more than 1.2 million units in 2021.The total number of commercial vehicles manufactured in the Middle East and Africa reached approximately 0.5 million units in 2021,an increase of 17.4%on 2020.Increasing domestic demand propelled p

60、roduction activity,particularly in South Africa,which is the largest commercial vehicle producer of the region.www.acea.auto 21 Figure 8:World commercial vehicle production|by region SOURCE:IHS MARKIT www.acea.auto 22 TRADE Last year,the total value of EU commercial vehicle exports increased slightl

61、y(+0.9%),generating a trade surplus of more than 5.8 billion.The van segment was largely responsible for sustaining growth,with both imports(+23.5%)and exports(+6.1%)seeing substantial growth compared to 2020.In contrast,imports and exports of trucks and buses declined(-11.5%and-4.0%,respectively),d

62、elivering a 4.3 billion trade surplus.Table 10:EU commercial vehicle and bus trade|by segment Trade in value(in million)Vans12 Trucks&buses13 TOTAL Jan-Dec 2021 Imports 5,093 2,038 7,131 Exports 6,608 6,347 12,955 Trade balance 1,515 4,309 5,824 Jan-Dec 2020 Imports 4,123 2,302 6,425 Exports 6,227 6

63、,613 12,841 Trade balance 2,104 4,311 6,416%change 21/20 Imports+23.5-11.5+11.0 Exports+6.1-4.0+0.9 Trade balance-28.0-0.05-9.2 SOURCE:EUROSTAT 12 Commercial vehicles up to 5t 13 Commercial vehicles over 5t,including buses and coaches www.acea.auto 23 IMPORTS With a 47.0%market share,Turkey was the

64、leading country of origin of EU commercial vehicle and bus imports in 2021,despite the decrease in value compared to 2020(-2.7%).In 2021,the value of commercial vehicle imports from most of the EUs main trading partners grew by double or triple digits.South Africa and the UK the EUs second-and third

65、-largest import partners both saw double-digit gains in the value of their exports to the EU.Looking at the 10 main countries of origin,Turkey and the US were the only countries to register declines.The value of US-built commercial vehicles exported to the EU contracted by-47.3%in 2021.Table 11:Top

66、10 Countries of origin of EU commercial vehicle and bus imports Trade in value(in million)Jan-Dec 2021 Jan-Dec 2020%change 21/20%share 2021 Turkey 3,351 3,445-2.7 47.0 South Africa 1,290 1,106+16.6 18.1 United Kingdom 834 683+22.2 11.7 Morocco 431 171+151.9 6.0 Thailand 336 183+83.7 4.7 China 289 25

67、4+13.7 4.0 Switzerland 157 114+37.5 2.2 Norway 153 142+7.3 2.1 Japan 94 24+290.7 1.3 United States 48 91-47.3 0.7 SOURCE:EUROSTAT www.acea.auto 24 EXPORTS The UK maintained its lead as EUs main export destination for commercial vehicles in 2021,despite a slight decline of the overall value of their

68、exports(-2.7%).However,exports of EU-made commercial vehicles to Norway and Switzerland EUs second-and third-largest export destinations of commercial vehicles grew by 10.3%and 2.3%,respectively.The value of exports to most of the other main destinations saw double-digit increases.The exceptions wer

69、e the US and China,where the value of commercial vehicles imported from Europe saw double-digit losses(-30.6%and-62.7%,respectively).Table 12:Top 10 Destinations for EU commercial vehicle and bus exports Trade in value(in million)Jan-Dec 2021 Jan-Dec 2020%change 21/20%share 2021 United Kingdom 3,825

70、 3,931-2.7 29.5 Norway 1,090 988+10.3 8.4 Switzerland 1,016 993+2.3 7.8 Turkey 641 560+14.6 5.0 Israel 486 402+20.9 3.8 Russia 476 333+43.2 3.7 Australia 465 385+20.9 3.6 United States 409 589-30.6 3.2 Ukraine 374 268+39.2 2.9 China 320 860-62.7 2.5 SOURCE:EUROSTAT ABOUT THE EU AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY 1

71、2.7 million Europeans work in the auto industry(directly and indirectly),accounting for 6.6%of all EU jobs 11.5%of EU manufacturing jobs some 3.5 million are in the automotive sector Motor vehicles are responsible for 398.4 billion of tax revenue for governments across key European markets The autom

72、obile industry generates a trade surplus of 76.3 billion for the European Union The turnover generated by the auto industry represents more than 8%of the EUs GDP Investing 58.8 billion in R&D per year,automotive is Europes largest private contributor to innovation,accounting for 32%of the EU total ACEA REPRESENTS EUROPES 16 MAJOR CAR,VAN,TRUCK AND BUS MANUFACTURERS ACEA European Automobile Manufacturers Association +32 2 732 55 50 infoacea.auto www.acea.auto