4.王宇凡 外發版.pdf

1、Cross Currents:全球海上風電市場面臨供應鏈困境，中國海上風電供應鏈將扮演何種角色王宇凡 研究顧問 全球海上風電2023年10月17日Cross Currents-CWP 2023 海上風電工程裝備論壇Wood Mackenzie全球風電市場展望：Q3 2023全球累計風電裝機容量將在10年后來到2.4TWSource:Wood MackenzieCross Currents-CWP 2023 海上風電工程裝備論壇Source:Wood MackenzieWood Mackenzie全球海上風電市場展望：Q3 2023到2030年，全球年新增海上風電裝機量將增加4倍以上Cross

2、Currents-CWP 2023 海上風電工程裝備論壇Wood Mackenzie海上風電基準預測 vs 2030 政府目標（除中國大陸市場）若要實現2030年政府目標，最后五年海上風電裝機量則需要大幅增加供應鏈所需的投資：Wood Mackenzie基準預測 vs 政府目標$109 bn$27 bnInvestments to meet 2030 targetsInvestments to meet base caseSource:Wood MackenzieCross Currents-CWP 2023 海上風電工程裝備論壇全球海上風電全球海上風電市場供應鏈面市場供應鏈面臨的挑戰臨的挑戰

3、中國將扮演何中國將扮演何種角色種角色12全球海上風電市場供應鏈面臨的挑戰全球海上風電全球海上風電市場供應鏈面市場供應鏈面臨的挑戰臨的挑戰中國將扮演何中國將扮演何種角色種角色12全球海上風電市場供應鏈面臨的挑戰Source:Wood Mackenzie達成2030年政府目標所需投資 vs Wood Mackenzie基準預測所需投資若要實現2030年的政府目標，需要對海上風電供應鏈進行超過1,000億美元的投資。Installation$48 bn$13.4 bnFoundation$18 bn$5.0 bnBlades$21 bn$4.0 bnNacelleInvestments requir

4、ed to meet Woodmacs base caseInvestments required to governments 2030 targetsTower$3.5 bn$17 bn$1.0 bn$4 bn全球海上風電市場供應鏈面臨的挑戰Source:Wood Mackenzie國外關鍵海上風電供應鏈企業息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率自2015年后，國外海上風電供應鏈利潤空間受到擠壓全球海上風電市場供應鏈面臨的挑戰Source:Wood Mackenzie已公布海上風電訂單的交付年份近兩年，行業已迅速成為賣方市場這對于海上風電項目這對于海上風電項目意味著什么？意味著什么？1.早期承諾2.應急能力

5、有限3.供應商影響力全球海上風電市場供應鏈面臨的挑戰Source:Wood Mackenzie到2030年前的供應能力缺口以及滿足需求峰值所需的投資部分現有的供應鏈容量正在被市場淘汰，加劇了產能擴張難度供應能力缺口Installation(vessel years)Nacelle(no.nacelles)Foundation(k tonnes primary steel)Blades(no.blades)Tower(no.sections)中國將扮演何種角色全球海上風電全球海上風電市場供應鏈面市場供應鏈面臨的挑戰臨的挑戰中國將扮演何中國將扮演何種角色種角色12中國將扮演何種角色繼國內海上風電新

6、增裝機量大幅下降后，中國的出口需求有所增加中國海上風電平均單機容量中國海上風電年新增并網容量Note:*Only capacity grid-connected by YE 2022 includedSource:Wood Mackenzie中國大陸與全球其他區域海上風電機組已投運時間*中國將扮演何種角色Source:Wood Mackenzie中國供應商的快速升級給行業和政策制定者提出來難題西方供應鏈對中國供應商的觀點政策制定者對中國供應商相互矛盾的觀點開發商對中國供應商相互矛盾的觀點Tier 3Tier 2Tier 1“Developers should not order Chinese

7、 turbines or foundations”“Tier 1 suppliers should not source sub-components from China”Tier 1 sources subcomponents from ChinaTier 2 sources subcomponents from ChinaTier 3 sources subcomponents from ChinaLocal contentRenewable targetsLocal contentTargets,deadlines,marginsCross Currents-CWP 2023 海上風電

8、工程裝備論壇Cross Currents-CWP 2023 海上風電工程裝備論壇Our supply chain Engine Rooms provide comprehensive coverage of market orders,fabrication centers,and vessel capabilities across the global offshore wind value chain.Offshore wind supply chain and technologyEngine room coverageNote:The data is extracted from Q

9、1 2023.Source:Wood MackenzieIncluded in the engine roomsTable of contents and definitions Table of contents and definitions explaining the methodologyOrders tables Orders tables breakdown of historical and future orders by facilityDemand tables Demand tables breakdown of WoodMacs forecast beyond the

10、 MW through metrics such as tonnes,or vessel days per year.Supply tables Supply tables Installation&manufacturing capacity with the capabilities of each vessel or facilityUtilisationUtilisation a breakdown of vessel or facility utilisationSupply&Demand dashboards Supply&Demand dashboards detailed on

11、 the following slideThe granularity of the offshore wind service allows you to zoom in on one of the 2,750+2,750+turbine and foundation installations orders across the 450+450+vessels announced in the marketCross Currents-CWP 2023 海上風電工程裝備論壇Our Engine room datasets allow you to quickly get an overvi

12、ew of the supply and demand balances across the key components while also giving you direct access to the underlying assumptions and the ability to tailor the output.Offshore wind engine roomsIllustrative supply and demand output from the Engine room datasetsNote:The data is extracted from Q1 2023.S

13、ource:Wood MackenzieDemand is analysed at the project-levelDemandSupplySupply is analysed at the facility or vessel-levelSupply by vessel or facilityDemand by project專注于技術、政策等重塑能源發展格局的行業動態伍德麥肯茲電力與可再生能源研究供應鏈技術、系統與運營市場動態綜合電力市場展望全球轉型風電風電供應鏈風電技術、系統與運營全球風電市場海上風電全球光伏市場美國集中式光伏美國分布式光伏全球儲能市場Grid Edge電動汽車光伏技術

14、、系統與運營光伏供應鏈儲能技術、系統與運營儲能供應鏈北美拉美歐洲亞太實時市場數據和電價預測PowerRT，EPSI能源轉型服務氫能CCUS碳排放離網光伏儲能Grid Edge電動汽車These materials,including any updates to them,are published by and remain subject to the copyright of the Wood Mackenzie group(Wood Mackenzie),or its third-party licensors(“Licensors”)as relevant,and are made

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